tv Fast Money CNBC March 27, 2013 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
it's the window dressing, the quarter end. big spy imbalance. options expiring. that should put upward pressure on the market in terms of buying. >> thank you all very much. appreciate it. >> plenty of drama for the final trading day of the quarter coming up tomorrow. can it get any better than that? we will see you tomorrow. thanks for joining us. >> "fast money" starts right now. welcome to the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. here's what "fast" is following tonight. could it be time toned the love affair with some of the most popular dividend paying stocks? we'll take a close look at why thear shorts are circling. gold diggers. a huge disconnect between the miners and metal. we'll get to the bottom of this mystery with the ceo of goldcorp. and blackbeary. get it? blackbeary? the one sign blackberry's big run this year could be in jeopardy, we'll tell you what to watch for ahead of the company's earnings tomorrow morning. but first straight to our lead story, call it the teflon
market. the major indices shaking off cyprus contagion worries and yet again ending the day just points away from the record high. this of course as the euro continues its slide dropping below the 200-day moving average once again. levels we have not seen since november 21st. so b.k., we asked, can anything at this point derail the rally? >> after today's action you would think probably not. but i still think europe's a huge concern here, that people are not looking at. when i look at european bank cds, those are starting to spike up again. that gets concerning because it becomes a reflexive event where people start pulling money out of the banks just because their stock prices are going down. so you've got to start looking at countries like malta, like netherlands. if b.k. was dutch, he'd probably be at an atm stuffing his shoes with euros right now. >> and when b.k. throws the spectacles on, you know he means business. he's actually making a pretty intelligent point with those intelligent specs. he's right. meanwhile, the imf, who says the italian banks, they come out with their review of the italian banks, they say things are better, meanwhile the euro's at four-month lows.
italian cds, 21 bips wider. this is something that actually is not very encouraging. and i tend to agree with brian on that front. i'm looking more at the dollar. and to me if you look at the dxy the dollar index is at 82.25. the dollar is getting stronger. even when the rest of the market was coming back, the dollar held on to its gains. and i think it's going higher. so we're at multi -- effectively multiyear highs on the dollar. you break to 84, and then we're look at really getting to almost post-crisis highs in the dollar at 88 on the dollar index. this is very important to watch because this is going to continue to pressure commodities. and if you look at what's going on in the iron ore, we're going to talk about cleveland cliffs, some of the guys getting toasted, this dollar trade is not your friend if you want to be playing commodities. >> have we got-tone a point, josh brown, where we are a little bit delinked from what's going on in europe? what was interesting in today's session was we saw the european banks pretty early on in the session taking it on the chin. they recovered a little bit but still deutsche bank finished lower by 3%. we saw goldman sachs come back, even saw morgan stanley finish in the green a little bit today.
>> the question is not whether or not we're delinked. we have been really since the beginning of the year. actually, europe relative to the s&p peaked sometime after thanksgiving. so what you really want to start to think about now is we're in this seasonal pattern. the last three years in a row the s&p has peaked out in one of the four weeks of april. there are very good reasons for that each time. they all have to do with geopolitics. from that standpoint i think brian makes some good points. however, the question is not can we avoid the next sell-off? we may not be able to. the question is how do you behave when it happens? the losing bet has been to flee to cash. the correct thing to do has been to pick the sectors that you believe are minimally related to european contagion, buy those, ride them to the end of the year. that's the bed we would rather make. as opposed to oh, my god, another european spring. >> perfect segue to get to our top trades for the day because there are always values never market our traders here on the desk find. so guy adami, we'll kick it off with you. >> excellent idea you had.
best one you've had so far. >> mint. >> spring, the kind of -- johnson & johnson. it was my final trade last night. why? that's one reason. but johnson & johnson did something very bright about five or six years ago at the onset of "fast money." they bought pfizer's consumer brands business. people said they overpaid. wrong. they didn't. they diversified themselves. now not only do they have big cap pharma but they're a consumer brand company which is why their multiple is too cheap, it should trade higher than the high teens, which is why even on a benign tape like we saw today j&j goes up. >> trading 15 times forward. you like j&j here even at all-time high levels. >> we've been involved in this stock for a long time. there's something that could happen here potentially that the street is excited about. there are three parts of this business. and essentially there could be some spinoffs that create value. as guy mentioned, it's a multifaceted company. i think that's what people are
really excited about, that opportunity to unlock value. >> tim, your top trade today. >> we talked about europe. the other part of all this, i think volatility has certainly moved into a crescendo period but it's something you have to trade. we sold cap puts which we put on last week. the cac, or in other words the index in france, their s&p has sold off more than any market in europe. you've got to trade this hard because the signals you're getting out of the e.u. are very conflicting, the headlines are very mixed, one guy says one thing, another guy says -- take it when you can get even though i think vol is here to stay. >> josh brown, top trade. >> i'm just dying to mention this stock. anadarko, apc. trades like a wildebeest. new all-time high. >> is that good or bad? >> that is a good thing. >> how does a wildebeest trade? >> like anadarko. have a look at the four or five-year chart. >> circular. >> that would never work. >> let's get into the reasons why. we can talk about wildebeest later. anadarko is looking at two major
catalysts. the first being there's been long-standing litigation. they're about to settle it. a judgment can come literally any day now. the company's more than amply reserved. even for a worst case scenario. the second thing you that want to consider, the chairman is set to retire. there is never an onshore or offshore drilling takeover target debate that doesn't involve this name coming up. and if you look at typically stocks around $0 tend to gravitate toward 100. long-term target, i see it at 115 -- >> you're making great points. from the momentum perspective the stock's at a 52-week high. >> correct. >> the rsi is very inflated. why now when you can say maybe there's a better place -- >> tim, the earnings estimates have been consistently too low. the last eight quarters they've had an up side surprise. and quite frankly $6 per share for earnings next year i think is way too low. once they settle this litigation, once we get some more color on whether or not there are going to be mergers in this space finally, this is the
name i think that benefits the most out of all of the others. >> therefore, wildebeest. >> yeah. >> now we know. beakers -- >> do we have graphics for that? >> for wildebeest? we'll get video. >> at the top of the show tim-tim did a great job talking about the dollar and the strength there and people running into that. good job, tim-tim. >> that t. was fantastic. >> i can't wait till i'm time-time-tim. >> you're always tim-tim. >> i would go to the bond market. as great as it is, somebody forgot to tell the u.s. bond market everything's fantastic. you can still buy tlt here. you look at japanese government bond yields. ten years are bow le. they're down at .5%. no reason why we couldn't see a sub-10% 10-year here over the next year in the u.s. >> this is what we'll be watching tomorrow. banks in cyprus set to reopen after anywherely two weeks. central bank officials there trying to prevent a cash run by imposing limited cash withdrawls. our chief international correspondent michelle caruso-cabrera joins us from
cyprus with the very latest. michelle? >> the banks of cyprus finally set to reopen tomorrow after being closed for nearly two weeks. however, the authorities are expecting runs on the banks. so they've put in place new restrictions and controls to try to stem the outflow of deposits. you won't be able to withdraw more than 300 euros per day. you won't be able to cash any checks. and if you're traveling abroad the largest amount you can carry is 3,000 euros cash. what they're really waiting to see is what happens with russian depositors. are they slowly but steadily going to remove their money from this country? they used to be some of the biggest depositors here and represented a large chunk of the banking sector. tomorrow's going to be a key step forward for the country of cyprus, though they still have many hurdles ahead of them. back to you. >> all right. thank you, michelle caruso-cabrera on the ground in nicosia, cyprus with the latest. it's going to be a very interesting day tomorrow to see people limited in what they can do with their cash. and i wonder when people are traveling across the borders if they're going to be loading themselves up with gold and other valuable items because they can't carry cash.
>> they're definitely trading in physical goods or they're trading in property. and wooch watch the london property market because this is where the russians have -- delgravia, where you've seen the assets flow. there's no question the russians have continued to essentially expatriate, if you may, because cyprus really is russia and this is what we've seen and i agree we're going to see more of this. >> and the question here tomorrow, b.k.-s what will the markets do? because obviously tomorrow is the last trading session of the week. holiday-shortened week. it's going to be light volume. could be very whippy. but yet we've been able to shirk off every single cyprus hiccup so far. >> we have been. it's also end of quarter. so you certainly have some kind of window dressing effect, or at least that's what i'm telling myself since i'm bearish and the market went up. i'd be cautious at the end of the day tomorrow. and then when you get into next week you need to watch the flows out of europe, out of those european banks. i think it's only a question of time. how fast are those deposits going to come out? is it going to be in one week or is it going to be a process over three to six months? but they're coming out. >> time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. pop for humana up 3%.
beakers. >> the congressional research service came out and said that medicare may be able to increase their payments. so humana got a big pop on this one. i think we stay long. >> love, a pop today. the move 2%. >> stow your tray tables, right or wrong? the airlines are crazy. i mean, all the airlines are up. i think if you want to be there, jetblue still with a 25% shortage. this is where you wouldn't to be. that's the most interest of all the airlines right now. >> big pop for diana shipping up 12%. >> a popular television host mentioned the stock's breakout last night, kind of force td through some pretty historic levels. it looks good, but it's tough to chase here after such a huge move. i would let it sell out, consolidate above that 50-day moving average before i throw it on the long side. >> drop for jpmorgan, down 1%. tim. >> financials are struggling but the whale trade is something that continues to weigh on jpmorgan, whether it's right or wrong. broke the 50. people watching this level actually stock can go lower. >> finally a pop for the world's largest egg.
>> huh? >> collectors are scrambling to london to feast their eyes on the world's largest egg, laid by the prehistoric 11-foot-tall elephant bird. the stately shell is about 120 times larger than that of a chicken. but if you want this egg in your easter basket you'll have to pay a pretty penny. it is expected to net over $45,000 at auction. >> and what do you do with it? >> probably tastes gross. >> color it. >> elephant bird? >> what an easter egg that would make. >> that looks like a honeydew melon to me. i think people are overpaying for it. >> that was good. >> way to crack a joke, beakers. before we theed break let's get a check on some after-hours movers. red hat plunging more than 9% on earnings it beat on eps but missed on subscription revenues. big plunge there. five below. also falling on earnings. the stock is down more than 8%. lower q1 fiscal guidance. ahead, the biggest stock so far this year expected to price this
hour. we will bring you the details as soon as we have them. and a lackluster year for gold stocks. goldcorp one of the world's largest miners. goldcorp ceo chuck jeannes to tackle the disconnect between gold stocks and mining prices. back after this. ls. it's a hawk with night vision goggles. it's marching to the beat of a different drum. and where beauty meets brains. it's big ideas with smaller footprints. and knowing there's always more in the world to see. it's the all-new lincoln mkz. arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.
makes it easy for anne to manage her finances when she's on the go. even when she's not going anywhere. citibank for ipad. easier banking. standard at citibank. to deposit checks from anywhere. [ wind howling ] easier than actually going to the bank. mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank.
killuzz buzz kill of the day, and that is kliff's natural, the worst performer on the s&p 500 this day. giting a downgrade from morgan stanley to an underweight from an equal weight. obviously the double whammy of coal and iron ore not good. >> i think this is more structural for cliffs because if you look at iron ore prices they're down about 5% year over year. if you look at where iron ore prices and where cliffs were, it's a $75 stock a year ago. they're really losing pricing power. iron ore prices have found somewhere at least a near-term range. i don't think they can necessarily go back to 180. but they're not going to 60. this stock is pricing in 6 0ds iron ore. i jumped in a little earlier around 23 bucks on this stock. i am not running out the door here. people are looking at the valuation, there is value but it really comes with where they're seeing iron ore prices. a lot of people run out the door. >> even the smart money can't
seem to get it wrong on gold or get it right. prominent hedge fund manager john paulson bet big that the gold miners were the best way to play gold as the precious metal skyrocketed in the last several years. but that hasn't been the case so far as gold miners have significantly underperformed the underlying commodity. let's take a deeper dive into the disconnect with chuck jeannes, the ceo of goldcorp, the second largest gold miner by capitalization. always great to see you. >> thanks, melissa, it's good to be back. >> i want to first get right at this market mystery because it seems like every reason why gold should go higher is in front of us right now. and recently you made some comments in hong kong that this market has increasingly been momentum driven. i'm wondering what you mean by that and whether or not hedge funds and the role of hedge funds have anything to do with that momentum. >> well, i think so. it's just interesting watching the commentary about the gold price over the last few weeks. someone on cnbc about three weeks ago saying that the reason for owning gold as a safe haven no longer exists, everything's
fine, and then cyprus of course raises its head and the safe haven reason, among many others for owning gold, comes back. i think those sorts of things do tend to move very quickly on a momentum basis. if you think about the longer-term fundamentals, and we've talked about this before, i think they're still lined up very solidly behind the strong gold price. >> in terms of these historical relationships that a lot of people point to, and i think you have pointed to them yourself, such as the relationship between gold prices and monetary supply, they seem to have worked in the past. could it be different this time around? because this time around you have the introduction of market vehicles like the gld. we have momentum players like hedge funds. the market is a little bit different this time. isn't it? >> i don't think so. the gld the been around most of this decade. if you think about those correlations i was talking about, look at the gold price
relative to the m-1 money supply relative to u.s. federal debt, relative to real interest rates. those things have been very strong correlations regardless of the fact that the gld has been available as an investment alternative. when you talk about the gold stocks, of course, that's a different story. and we have underperformed. now we're looking at historically low valuations, so we're getting a lot of new interest in gold equities, and that's certainly where when i go out and meet with investors the focus is. >> hey, chuck, it's josh brown. you make a good point but wouldn't you agree it's a little bit disingenuous to be talking about gold equities as a hedge against cyprus or worse given that your own stock was more than cut in half during the events of 2008? and further, is there anything to the case that gets made these days that the problem with the gold miners is they issue too many shares to really allow
their shareholders to enjoy the increase in gold we've seen over the last several years? how would you tackle those two bear cases that we hear all the time? >> well, certainly in 2008 all equities dropped. >> right. >> and there's no question about that. but if you look at the rate of bounceback of the gold shares relative to the general equity market, i think that's where you get the benefit of owning a gold stock as opposed to the s&p 500 in a negative market environment. but the second point is i think the most important one. we have essentially underperformed gold as a sector, and there's a lot of reasons for that. in the case of goldcorp, we haven't issued shares. so that wouldn't apply. we have actually some operational issues last year that disappointed investors, required us to reduce or guidance. and from my standpoint those are behind us. number one, they're not
structural issues in our company. so like you guys do every day, it's a matter of picking the winners in the sector. and i think if you look at where the companies have structural issues versus these kinds of execution matters that are behind us is where you're going to find the winners and losers. >> hey, chuck, real quick, what's more interesting right now, your own stock to buy back or some extraneous gold project? because again, capex is being cut in your sector by guys who are saying these projects are no longer economically feasible. seems like your stock is cheap. >> well, i think so too. we're actually investing in new projects, though. we are fortunate to have three new mines that we're building that are very high quality, that were acquired at very good prices. we haven't had any writtendowns, any impairments. and any company in the world would be building these mines. that's where our investment, our free cash flow is going. and if you look at what that brings us in terms of cash flow growth over the coming years, i think it's going to be a very exciting future for us.
>> chuck, last quick question because this is sort of the knock on miners that some investors might have. and that is that your costs are rising. there are some estimates out there that the sector faces an annual 15% compound cost escalation, part of which is under your control, part of which is just things going up like commodities. and i'm wondering from your standpoint, what is your all-in cost of producing an ounce of gold and is that rising? >> it is rising. and you've hit it right on the head. i think that's the main reason that gold stocks have underperformed, because we haven't generated the margin growth that was expected with the increase in the gold price. at goldcorp we produced gold last year for $874 an ounce all in, and we're look at between 1,000 and $1,100 this year. that's a bit of an aberration because we're bringing on a new mine and they're never as efficient in the first year as they will be. but that still provides a very strong margin. and we don't think that that growth or increase in the prices
will continue. actually, we expect them to come down as this new mine hits its stride. so again, you have to pick the right stock out there. >> chuck, pleasure to speak with you. thanks for your time. chuck jeannes, the ceo of goldcorp. b.k., you like goldcorp? would you play the miners? >> no. my view is always on gold. so that's what i'm just going to go with there. and i think it's really instructional to see how gold has traded with the strong dollar. to me that's -- the correlation's starting to break. >> let's look at miners here. freeport mcmoran up 2% today. let's get to scott nations who saw bets the stock would go even higher. what did you see? >> that's right. the stock did really well even though the quiet tape. and we saw just over two calls trade for each put. part of that was because of a giant call by that we saw, just over 10,000 of the may 35 calls traded at 51 cents. so break even on that trade. 35.51. buyer of those calls expected the stock to be well above that may expiration.
the stock just got killed, just crushed last december. so this 35.51 is interesting because the stock has not been able to get above $36 since then even though it's tried several times. >> tim, you're short gold. you think these guys are wrong. >> i like the call at 35.50. that's where i might think about covering. but the capital discipline we talk about with freeport, this is the problem. risk reward this stock does not scare me to be short. >> scott nations thanks. meantime on deck you why may want to avoid dividend-paying stocks. plus blackberry shares rocketing 100% over the past six months. we take our position on the hot stock less than 24 hours before it reports earnings. later on, which stocks will go to the final eight? find out during fast money madness." be right back. ♪
[ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. all on thinkorswim. i've always had to keep my eye on her... but, i didn't always watch out for myself. with so much noise about health care... i tuned it all out.
with unitedhealthcare, i get information that matters... my individual health profile. not random statistics. they even reward me for addressing my health risks. so i'm doing fine... but she's still going to give me a heart attack. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. has an equally thrilling, lesser-known counterpart. conquer them with the exhilarating is 250. get great values on your favorite lexus models during the command performance sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge.
♪ departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪
welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. watching pvh here in the after-hours. pvh, the clothing maker, owns and markets calvin klein among other brands. it is in the red here in the after-hours. it does look like guidance came in light on first quarter earnings. the stock down about 5% right now in the after-hours. and by the way, pvh's ceo will be with our very own jim cramer on "mad money" tonight. back to you, melissa. >> all right. josh lipton, thank you for that. citigroup making our call of the day on a research note predicting that oil demand may be topping out much sooner than the market expects. citi saying that the natural gas revolution in the u.s. and u.s. fuel efficiency standards in vehicles could be enough to cause global oil demand to
plateau by the end of this decade. also pointing out that oil demand is already lower due to higher prices. beaker saw a trade in all of these charts. >> it's short gasoline, long natural gas. you can do that as a pair trade or one leg of it as you want to do it. if you look at gasoline, we're about 9.5 billion barrels a day in demand in 2007. we're down to about 8.5 million barrels a day. you're really starting to see that fall off there. nat gas is a long-term play. still trading a little on weather so be careful with that. but in the long run -- >> you go the nat gas route. >> sure. i think what you want to do is look at something like an i.e.o. the holdings in that etf. these are all the domestic natural gas producers, oil producers, a lot of companies that do both. and you want to start to think about consolidation. exxonmobil pulled the trigger on xto a couple years ago. what they got in the bargain was a massive nat gas field. bp has done several deals. it's very clear that's where everything is going. if you can find a company with
that kind of exposure and those leases in shale plays, probably going to be a winner over time. >> let's move on and talk blackberry. it's reporting fourth quarter earnings before the bell tomorrow. and it promises to be a very wild ride if history is any sort of a guide here. jon for thet joins tt joins wit. >> every quarter for the past two years the stock popped up 5% or 7%. the other six quarters it was down double digits. show you a few of those quarters here. now, a couple of possible reasons for that. short interest is one. it's about 30% of the float. and there are only about 500 million shares out there but we're still seeing huge volume relatively speaking, over 50 million shares traded today. and that's below the three-month average. the question is what are the numbers that are going to move the stock this time? investors definitely want to see confirmation of a strong z-10 launch in the uk and canada, about a month's worth of sell in numbers there, but then they also want to see continued health in the core business,
which means blackberry's seven unit sales and subscriber numbers need to hang in there. if subscribers drop by 1 million or less that will be a good sign. i'll be on "squawk box" in the morning 7:00 a.m. when the numbers come out. >> eric jackson, the founder of iron fire capital, he is a blackberry shareholder. and eric, it sounds like you're being a little bit cautious given the stock's run at this point. >> well, you just heard about the history with earnings reports. so we got hit on the last earnings call in december because of the gotcha that they revealed in terms of their services revenue. and we've had a good run since then, but we just wanted to lighten up on the stock. still very long some long dated options in the stock because unlike the shorts i am positive in the name still for the rest of the year. >> it does seem that thorson heinz has been getting aw little more confident and a little more, i don't know, comforting for shareholders as his tenure moves on, even going so far as calling the iphone 5 a sleepy
device. are you expecting to hear some very sort of positive, robust comments reareding the z-10? because the quarter did end march 2nd. so there are a couple weeks where he can just sort of give us a qualitative take on sales. >> i think everybody listening to the call will care less about the backwards review of the quarter and more about going forward. and what thorston reveals in terms of his guidance. and i think that's the potential wild card here on the long side, is after several quarters ago when they dropped forward guidance, do they actually bring it back this time? if so, and if it's pretty healthy, that would be very bullish. they have much more knowledge obviously today than several quarters ago, especially from the u.s. carriers. it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happened in tomorrow's call. >> great to speak with you. greg jackson of iron-fire. programming note tomorrow, cnbc's "street signs" will have thorston heinz. we'll weigh in on earnings and much more.
2:00 p.m. eastern time. in the meantime we've got to get to this trade here because it has been a monster mover. and yet if he says anything positive those shorts will be squeezed and that stock will rocket. >> right. this is also the company that brought you the playbook. so you have to be a little careful with all the excitement. >> you bought the playbook? >> yeah, a whole bunch of them. cheap. on ebay. anyway, i would say that i think eric has the right idea here. lightening up. momentum has been so strong i don't think you want to be shorting this stock but certainly lighten up. >> what do you say, guy? >> the risk last time was to the down side. probably the risk this time is to the up side. i understand your face ripped off being long the stock in earnings. but i don't think it would shock anybody to see them surprise to the up side and the stock be up 7% to 8%. >> i agree. this is going to be binary. i think this is flip a coin, frankly. and i've been following this stock forever. i think it's too tough for me. >> coming up next, why dividend-paying stocks may be losing their mojo. and one of the nation's top financial advisers fires up new strategies for your portfolio. that's right here on "fast," straight ahead.
can your hearing aid do this? lyric can. lyric can. lyric can. lyric by phonak is the world's only 24/7, 100% invisible hearing device. it's tiny. but that might be the least revolutionary thing about lyric. lyric can be worn 24/7 for up to four months, without battery changes. call 1-800-411-5534 for a risk-free trial. cookie: there's absolutely no way anyone can see it
even if they get right up to my ear. michael: wake up, go to sleep ...showering, running, all your activities. lyric can also give you exceptionally clear, natural sound in quiet and noisy environments because of how it works with your ear's own anatomy. can your hearing aid do all this? lyric can. to learn more about lyric's advanced technology, call 1-800-411-5534 or visit trylyric.com for a risk-free 30-day trial offer and free dvd and brochure. get the hearing aid that can. lyric from phonak. lyric can.
jump shot, why would you be worried? seems like everybody loves these stocks. >> i'm not sure it's something to be worried about. it's something to be aware of. the dividend investing theme has led to billions and billions of dollars pouring into these etfs, which then in turn blindly buy the highest paying dividend stocks. so as a result you get some really expensive companies in traditionally slow growth sectors and there's a huge mismatch here. here's a really great example. so altria adds 26% in short interest in the last two weeks. at&t, that looks like a small number, 3%, but that's 90 million shares short. you've got market players betting these multiples can't hold. >> can i ask you a question before we move on? if it's up 26 prs but it's still only 1.2% of shares outstanding why should we care? >> we should care because if you look at the p/e ratios, which
are on the next screen, you get a sense of how much of a premium people are paying just because a stock paz a dividend. here's what's going to be the problem with that. utilities at 16 times earnings. telecoms at 23 times earnings. if you look at at&t, for example -- >> it looks cheap compared to its sector. >> backward looking it's a 30 multiple. a lot of the earnings coming from cost cutting. so the short sellers here are betting if the economy improves money will flow out of these names, they will drop. because the dividend will be less alluring versus what you can get in growth elsewhere. >> so when you like a name like a johnson & johnson, there's nothing to be worried about when it comes to johnson & johnson. doesn't it fall in the same bucket as these stocks? >> it does. it's not quite as pronounced and what you end up having to do is amp up your risk management. it's not your father's j&j, in other words. these stocks are trading as though they're growth stocks. they're clearly not. look at the revenue growth on at&t is non-existent. philip morris grew 2% last year. no reason it should trade at a 15 multiple minus that dividend. i think you've really got to be
more careful with these types of stocks than you've ever had to be before. >> b.k., do you think we should be careful of these blue chips that so many people flock to for safety? >> absolutely. i think the volatility on these have been suppressed because you have new buyers coming in. the so-called great rotation you can argue whether or not it's happening. you're getting people that are traditional bond investors getting into these high dividend stocks and you have to be concerned when the market does have, even if it's a natural pullback, are these people going to be able to hold on or is it we can't? if they can't, you can get some big volatility here. i would be very concerned. >> let's move on here. how should you position your portfolio for the long term? let's bring in bill greiner, the c.i.o. at mariner wealth advisers and number 4 on barron's top 100 financial advisers. he's your "fast money" adviser tonight and will bring you the best ideas for a longer-term asset allocation and retirement planning. great to have you with us, bill. >> pleasure. thanks for having me. >> how should your portfolio look in this kind of a market? >> the area we're looking at right now as far as fresh capital is concerned, we're asking ourselves the question of
has the train left the station as far as the markets are concerned? we really don't think they have. but the area in the world we're look at -- and we really look worldwide for opportunities, and the opportunities we're seeing right now we're looking for quality and growth and also valuation. the area we're look at very closely are the emerging markets. and this is an area that a lot of people haven't talked about over the last year or so because the emerging markets in dollar terms are down about 1% over the last 12 months as compared to the s&p and the efa index up 10% or 11%. we think there's real opportunities. selected opportunities but real opportunities with the emerging market space. >> bill, tim seymour. i like the call on e.m. we did a chart last friday showing e.m. down 15% to the s&p this yeah, it's a great place where the train hasn't left the station. i understand, though, you're very interested in southeast asia, at least you like some of those markets, which really to me offer the best of the pure consumption and demographic story. but i look at a lot of those and i say the train has left the
station. can you give me a country allocation that you love where you think actually the thing hasn't gotten away from us? >> three areas within the southeast asian markets we like a lot because we think the story is going to be changing throughout this year, and the story is becoming much more china-centric. over the last year or to you've seen countries like thailand, for example, accelerate as far as their markets are concerned, which really are more driven by internal economic factors. in southeast asia you're probably going to see an acceleration with countries directly tied to the china story, i.e. hong kong. we think there's a play there, a play going forward in singapore along with south korea. those are three markets we think in southeast asia that hold some real promise over the next 12 months. >> in terms of how investors at home can play this, a few etfs. ishares asia, spider emerging rattin america etf. but you also like nat gas pipelines and oil plays. walk us through el paso pipeline, that stock that has had a monster run just this year alone up 19%.
>> we think in general the theme holds true. el paso is a good solid play within that area, but we think in general we're looking at a three, five, ten-year horizon. if you're thinking that the u.s. in general is going to become much more energy independent as we dot next three, five, ten-year period of time we want to own transport companies. it doesn't really matter if you own a transport company who's finding the natural gas or the oil or who's burning it on the back end. you're wanting volumes, basically. you're wanting increased volume activity. and the pipelines play hard in that volume field. >> and we talked a lot about emerging markets. but 39% of your portfolio is in u.s. equities. so what are your top sectors within that allegation? >> we like energy. we like energy a lot. and we like certain raw materials. not across the board but certain raw materials. we also are starting to warm up on finance. basically, late cycle kind of ideas. because we believe over the next year or two you're going to
start hearing rumbles about is current expansion sustainable? are we going to see a slide back into an economic contraction in the next year or two? we think the probability of that happening over the next several years is going to start accelerating. >> pleasure to speak with you. bill greiner, the c.i.o. of mariner. number 4 on "barron's's" top 100 list of financial advisers. find out which stocks go to the final eight in "fast money" madness. our traders and your tweets decide the winners. check out "fast money" madness. actually, fastmadness.cnbc.com for all the details. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future.
♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. ♪ [ male announcer ] help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launch of the country's largest petrochemical operation. ♪ when emerson takes up the challenge, "it's never been done before" simply becomes consider it solved. emerson. ♪
he. time now for "fast money madness." we started out with 64 stocks, and tonight we conclude our round of 16 to determine the last few stocks that will make it into our quarterfinals. earlier today we tallied our trader votes and your twitter votes to be determining who would be moving on to our industrial region. here are the results. number 9 transocean bounced number 4 seed general electric. and number 2 seed honeywell beat out 11 seed deere. based on voting earlier, 5 seed
morgan stanley fell to number 1 seed bank of america. but there is still one debate to be settled in this region tonight, and it is between number 3 seed visa and number 7 seed citigroup. so we turn to our traders now. guy, kick it off. v or c? >> i think visa can win the whole shebang. so it stands to reason if i think they can win it all they can beat citi. we've of we've talked about visa and mastercard since the inception of this show. why? because people are spending money differently. they're not using cash anymore. they're using plastic. >> but in terms of the run zblsh that is still intact. >> visa's last year's team. citi -- playing on the away court will pull an upset and because of their away game. these guys are playing 55% outside of north america. this is still an emerging market bank. these guys have come to play this year. even though the u.s. market does a lot tore these guys at home --
>> visa is a much better play on emerging markets than citigroup is. and i've got to tell you, chartwise it has not done what you think. year to date it's been consolidating -- >> but you yourself are talking about valuation, josh, and this is a stock that is not cheap. citi at tangible book at .87 is very cheap to itself, cheap to its peer group. visa can is expensive here. and this is a stock if they disappoint at all they will get crushed in the tournament. >> citigroup's tangible book is a work of fiction. it is whatever they say it is. >> that i can't tell you. >> are you serious? >> you're talking about citi holdings you can't touch. but citibank? they put all get stuff in one spot. that's where you want to hold. >> b.k.? >> i'm going to side with tim-time. >> wow. >> certainly my problem with visa is you have to rely on the consumer here. and being that i think the global economy's slowing down a lot more than people think i've got to be out of visa and into citigroup. i also think they can pick up sxhft global deposits if we see some of them flow out of europe. >> all right.
so we've got a tie here. >> love the ties. >> we've got a tie here. you know what happens when we have a tie here on this december snk. >> how do we do? >> twitter posts. >> get them out. >> visa. >> visa won. >> there you go. >> there you have it. josh brown and guy. >> i thought we had an educated audience. >> visa. victory. >> well, that's people that are not doing the work. all right? >> we'll see who ends up -- >> sore losers, man. >> every time. >> every time. >> you're going to tell me i'm not hungry to win? every day i'm hungry to win. >> poor tim-tim. to see the bracket of all the stocks in play in our "fast money madness" competition log on to fastmoney.cnbc.com. and remember you can get in the game by tweeting us, using the #fastmoneymadness. and there will never be any ties. why? >> because the audience is our fifth trader. each one of you's not one. you are collectively -- >> the conglomeration of the viewers. >> yeah, baby! >> still to come, cnbc's jane
wells has the latest in geek fashion. jane? >> well, i don't actually have it because i was neither chic enough or geek enough, but thousands of other people are now lucky enough to soon pose as hipsters. that and what would you do to avoid paying the bills? we have got our priorities all screwed up. when we come back. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪
from mobile from mobile devices to medical marijuana we've got you covered in the west coast wrap. jane wells, what do you have? >> melissa, i'm putting the chic in geek. google has chosen 8,000 people to wear the new google glasses to test out the wearable computers. winners submitted essays and are willing to pay 1,500 bucks for a pair. yes, the winners pay. we had some video of it. they include a zoo worker who wants to show the feeding of penguins and someone who wants to take glasses to world war ii vets. my favorite application from a non-winner, "i'd record 100 people eating bacon and demonstrate how their brain waves change their mood to happiness." >> if i want to see penguins being fed i don't understand why
glasses are better than a video. i don't know. call me old-fashioned. i have two words. >> brain tumor. that's what i think when i see those things. >> let's talk good b. google the stock. technically speak traders i talked to are pointing to this potential head and shoulders setup. it's had a tough couple of weeks since the first week of march. 840 would represent the head. i don't agree that that's going to be the case. i'm bullish on google for what it's worth. it should find support at the rising 50-day, which i think is around 785, 790. >> all right, jane. >> okay. what does amazon have that walmart doesn't? nearly seven times the amount of online sales and an incredible internet distribution network. what does walmart have that amazon doesn't? stores. so to boost its share of web sales, walmart plans to double the number of stores which can distribute goods sold online and is experimenting with lockers where people can pick up their internet orders. melissa, amazon of course has lockers at 7-eleven. >> and staples, i believe. >> when we talk about the upside, i do believe walmart's in a great space. unlike when we talk about best buy where the showrooming
thing's going on, walmartion from a position of strength from take market share from the retailer. the in store walmart experience is something these guys -- i don't think people are ready to give on up at 14 times earnings. this is a stock that also at 75 bucks looks like it's got up side if you look at its highs of last year, closer to 80. i would stay with paurmt walmart. but i'm always a guy that's going to tell you amazon is too expensive and i've been very wrong on that front for the last year. >> how much do you hate paying the bills? not coughing up the money but the actual process of paying the bills. a survey by bill flow, which does automatic bill pay, says 40% of adults say they'd give up sex for a month if it meant they could avoid paying the bills. someone joked they must be married so, it's not that big a sacrifice. 45% of women. >> that's not a surprise. >> and 36% of men. one in three men. that is an american crisis. >> obviously, more women take the poll, skewing all the
results here. >> somebody's having a rough day. all right, tim. >> not in my house. >> nice recovery. >> baby crying. >> jane, thank you. >> poor tim-tim. you tweeted. let's get some of the tweets. this one's for guy. >> right on. >> would you short best buy here? not looking good. >> d.a.c. love him on twitter. i've got to give my props to tim #seymour. we street fought about this one. timmy took the bull side. i took the bear side. here we are at 22. i still don't get the story. analysts just said it's a $30 price target. i think it was credit suisse a couple weeks ago. i don't see it. i think it's worth a shot. especially if you're in beaks' camp with the bear suit and think the tape's rolling over. >> not another one of those fictitious tim-tim losses again. >> who's not -- >> and that's my point. i won the thing yet that night
people were calling me the loser. >> that's a wah. >> where's the baby crying? >> now we can move on. this one's for beaks. looks like usg might hit the 200-day moving target -- average i should say. hope you mention when you pick some up on "fast money." >> i probably won't be picking some up for a while. i think technically probably down to 23 is where i'd start to look at it. but you really need to see these price increases whether or not they're going to come down, actually, which is what they're suggesting. i would stay away fruchlt sg right now, give it some time to breathe, maybe in a month or two come back to it. >> we've got your first move for tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. >> check >> check your closet. chances are you've got some clothes from pvh. from calvin to tommy, they've got some of the biggest brands around. stick around because "mad money" is coming up next. 3w4r tt de's online banking,
. final trade time. beakers, kick it off. >> my google glasses are telling me you can still buy monsanto even though it's up 1 1/2% today. >> tim tim. >> congrats to two of my favorite markets, the philippines and turkey for their upgrades today. you can play turkey with the t.u.r. >> josh brown. >> i think apc has no problem running up to at least 100. >> hmm. guy. >> i like our goldcorp guest. >> chuck jeannes. >> double g. i think you can trade -- >> miners. >> yeah. i'm telling you. this sucker's poised for a bounce.