tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC April 15, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
nasdaq. down about 40 points. just stunning some of the big losers on the s&p are related to commodities in some way. freeport, pioneer natural, cliffs natural, newmont mining, and peabody, all among the biggest losers on the s&p. let's get back to the headquarters. wapner and the "halftime." zillion. >> all right, carl thank you very much. four hours to go until the close. let's take you to the wall. a down day is where we stand now. basically lowest levels of the day. the s&p, dow, nasdaq selling off as we come on the air. here's what we're following. the glitter trade. how gold's meltdown is bringing big money to a well-known hedge fund. you'll hear from the manager live on "halftime" in a moment. banking on the financials. earnings are in the books. more coming this week. which is the best one to own today? first, the top story, and
that's the continued commodities sell-off. gold picking up right where it left off on friday. and now, suffering its worst two-day drop in 30 days. crude not spared either. oil falls to the worst level since the end of last year. what is going on? what does it mean to your money we're trading with joe, john, stephanie, and mike. joe, over to you first. what do you make of the commodities meltdown? >> the meltdown is going to continue. i think to figure out exactly if this is a moment where you step in and in essence buy a folding knife, you have to look back toward the past. if you think for a second, scott, when did gold make the high? september 2011. that's exactly when it had that deficit debacle in washington, d.c. gold should have gone higher at that point. it did not. the volume is incredibly heavy right now. and i would argue to those that will tell you to step in and buy gold, be careful of one thing. speculative is as high today as it was -- this time last year. and the price is much different.
so you have an environment where further downside is definitely present. be cautious. still a lot of people along. >> stephanie, the volume link in the dlg is unbelievable today. people are rushing for the exits. what does it mean for not only gold, but what does it mean for the overall market? we're not taking a new swill. >> i think there's a reason the commodities are seeing another leg down, is because of the china data overnight. which is really not that great. it's not that surprising. we've seen china become the starling out of the economic data, right? we've talked about it. talked about positioning the portfolios -- our portfolio, more
. . . . . . knee and obviously a bit of a rally. as the growth starts to disappoint, commodities fell way off. in this case, it's been a metal-driven sell-off. >> and the point before, the margins hitting the market. the reason for the huge two-day sell-off in gold, and if that's the case -- and i've said gold appears to be broken -- if that's the case, usually you get a capitulation. you will getting a trading bottom and a bounce. >> don't forget, the global central banks are easing around the world. so that hasn't changed overnight. that's going to be very positive for the long term. >> all right. thank you, as always. >> thank you. >> next up on "the half," cities
bucking the trend and what's the slew of bank earnings this week mean? what's the best way to play it? glenn shore joins us with the top plays in banks. and later, netflix having a tough day. stock up nearly 100% this year alone, so can the good times continue? two of the traders will go toe-to-toe. carfirmation.
and not just the big story in the commodities market. oil as well. we're watching that. let's bring in one of the biggest names in the oil markets now, and when he speaks, markets move. he's mark fisher, ceo, and welcome back. it's good to have you on "the half." >> hey, scott, what's up? >> gold is getting all of the conversation today. what do you see in terms of oil? why is the sell-off happening? what do you make of the whole commodities complex melting down? >> well, obviously, it just shows you what happens when the market has no bit. and whether it be crude oil, gold, obviously, you know, the bear can be -- there's no bit to the market. on the other hand, if you're a long-term believer in gold, okay, then you should love this, what's going on, because it will give you a chance to buy a significant position at a much cheaper price if you're in gold for the long term. in terms of oil, you know, you have all kinds of -- the stuff out of china, stuff out of, you know, whether the data, ultimately, i don't think
gold -- i don't wti gets much below $2, $3 here, and since you guys have been hawking gold all day, short term, going to go down some more. why not? if you're a long-term believer in gold, you should like this, because this is giving you a chance to buy insurance, anxiety insurance, currency insurance, at a cheaper rate than you ever thought you would do it at. i'm not advocating, just one way -- >> sure. are you surprised as a veteran and a guy that's made an awful lot of money in the commodities market, were you taken surprise by the move we've seen in gold especially, and then in oil? >> i'm taken by surprise every day by the markets. i think everybody is. i think that, you know, the market continues to surprise u you, you have basically, you know, a small flash, crash in gold here to some degree. and, you know, every day, you know, i learn something new in the markets, and every day, you know, it's like a new book being opened up. no two days are the same. i will say if you are a believer in metals, you know, that if --
if you are a believer in metals, you should love this. because it gives you a chance to establish a position much cheaper than you ever thought it was. because the market goes down another $150, maybe? you are talking about so much on the tv, i think maybe one day this week, maybe the bottom, like one of your commentators said. you know, you should love this if you're a long-term holder. if you're a short-term speculator, good luck. >> there are those that will raise eyebrows about what you said about a small flash crash in gold. what leads you to believe that's the reason for the sell-off -- >> i'm not saying a flash crash. i'm not an alarmist. i'm saying the lack of bit. when you have the lack of bits, this is what happens. you know, until -- you know, until either there's no one -- there's -- the selling dries up or until some other buyer steps in and says enough is enough. no, i have no idea what that
price is, and nobody on your panel does. i don't mean the flash crash in the sense that the computer is going crazy, but just no bits in the market. >> joe has a question for you, mark. >> mark, it's joe. i know that over the last couple of months, and even the last year or so, you felt strongly about owning the refiners, which have pulled back significantly, then. would you then view this as an opportunity? >> i think that if you believe that, you know, the world economy is not going to go to held in a handbasket, and if you believe, you know, the spread is not going to narrow significantly more than here, you know, i look for selling -- you know, some parts to buy, how the money falls, and it's in good play. i think the refiners will do fine, because the margins are that no matter what the crude will be, there won't be a glut of products, that's simple. >> do you still feel pretty good about where the global economy sits right now? does that support your these his, then, on the refiners and some in play? >> i'm not a judge of the global economy.
i'm just looking at the market -- i just look at the crack spreads and i think the crack spreads will stay wide for an indefinite period of time. >> yeah. hey, marshes great to have your insight. thank you so much for calling in. >> take care. >> all right. mark fisher on the line there. what do you do? >> i think he brought up great points. you can buy the market. i'm going to stick with buying the s&p. >> what about some of the refiners? you like -- >> we do. i like -- we had a trade in psx, phillips 66, and valero cracked 60, and to mark's point, as long as the crack spread stays wide, and there's no indications it won't to, i think valero -- >> why not go to the integrated companies, and those are the ones that will go down the least probably, because of the -- >> give me a name. the best name. >> conocophilips, oxy, chevron. i gave you three. >> they're talking about the
overweight status. this is the first place i now look for opportunity. look at a name like delich, like tesoro or valero. i think there is opportunity coming in the next week or so. i believe with the premise that margins will widen. >> if you talk with the drilling companies, they will say if oil stays above 70, 75, they will play. that's something worth paying attention to. >> so, doctor, it appears that the panel sees in these broken commodities some real opportunity. some buying opportunity. >> absolutely, judge. and this is textbook as far as getting that washout that you're looking for. now, is that the bottom, just as mark fisher said, i can't throw that and say, yes, this is the bottom. but when i see the gvx, that's the volatility of gold, when that's up 40% friday and up 70% today, exploding to the highest levels basically that we've seen in years, i've got to think that that fear level will not be
sustainable and that it'll come back in rather dramatically. it doesn't mean that we see a v-shaped bottom. just means we put in that bottom pretty soon here. >> all right. citi shares are on the move today as we move on to talk about bank earnings following its big earnings beat this morning. what does it mean for the financials with more reports coming out this week? glenn, welcome back. >> thanks very much. >> goldman tomorrow morning, bank of america a couple days later. what's the read right now on the financials after what we heard from citi this morning? >> some of the financials are in good shape. you know, a good cyclical first quarter. if you combine the little revenue growth, little loan growth and a little expense compression at the same time, you get a big takeoff in profitability and higher expected payouts. so bigger dividend yields going forward. >> best in class right now in the financials is what? >> on the bank side, i'd say citi and jpmorgan and the asset managers, invesco and blackrock. >> you hear anything on citi call this morning that would
lead you to believe something different about where this bank goes from here? >> no, actually, the best takeaway i think you have from the citi call is that giving you a little bit of everything that they told you you were going to get. and they're executing on the plan. so you go from low roe to medium roe and hopefully a higher one next year. i think by next year, they could be a top quartile dividend payer in the s&p and continue to produce that position tiv operating leverage. >> what's the read-through from wells, jpmorgan, and bank of america in a couple of days? >> more of the same probably, with a little more cost take-out, because that's what it's built on. you saw strong trading, kind of so/so trends in domestic loans. but a lot of expense takeout on bank of america's side, should be more of the same for them. >> glenn, capital markets was strong with jpmorgan and also today at citi. can this continue? and what is the function of really low expectations and beating the lower borrower, or something to get excited about
here? >> it's a good question. it's both. expectations weren't huge, but they were there. it's the first quarter and people do expect to pick up. we did get the pickup. i think what people are most concerned about is would this be the fourth year in a row of great first quarter, and then we just kind of slide a little bit into -- into mediocrity in the second and third quarters. it feels a little bit better. i'm a little glass half-full this year as opposed to the last couple of years. but, you know, first quarters typically the strongest quarter, and it'll be tough selling. i think in general when you see housing improvement and central banks around the planet that keep inflating assets, that's generally a good thing, bodes well for asset managers. >> glenn, joe, and i'm curious, the street seems to expect the worst for the bank of new york. what exactly is it you don't like and you want us to avoid it? >> let's see. well, short term, what i would say is the business mix isn't quite as levered to the
environment as some of the other trust banks. so they do have some headwinds, net interest income, just as part of the business is in runoff. and as well as in their issuer services business where some of the mortgage securities are in run-ups. they have more headwind than others but more fixed-income sensitive than the others that are equity sensitive. when you do the compare and contrast, their margins will come up a little short. i also worry if they can ever break out of this earnings environment that we've been in for, like, literally the last decade of hanging out in the 2, 2.25 a year range, and i don't think this will be a quarter they break out from that. >> glenn, good to have you. >> all right, thank you very much. coming up, gold continues to be the big story today, slumping to a two-year low and dropping to a technical support level as well. we'll check the charts to see if a rebound is, in fact, in the cards. later, could the sell-off in the commodities be a canary in
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all right. welcome back. we'll make the turn now, a little maflters style, doing the top three trades. steph, a couple of downgrades for chipotle -- or a couple of upgrades has the stock on the move, although it's down in a down market. >> yeah, i don't think there's really anything new to the story. long term, the theme remains very favorable. the problem i have, it trades 28 times, low single digit comp and flat as unit growth. i think you can buy this as a lower price. >> how about saks downgraded to neutral. getting hit pretty hard on that. >> it is. the setup here is that it's sitting right above the 50-day moving average at 11.37. it came down, touched 1.36 and rallied up. you could see more pressure selling. >> joe, alpha, arch, freeport, all downgraded at citi today. what do you make of it?
there's the move of the stocks getting hit pretty good. >> yeah, well, what i make of it it's absolutely ridiculously late. i mean, when you look at arch cole right now trading somewhere down five buck, down 30% for the year, this is a stock that will go to $2. the balance sheet is in complete disarray. i don't like the coal names. if there's one you had to buy, you go out and buy console, because it has a little bit of a natural gas slant. >> like adding insult to injury when you look at what gold is doing, the metals, mining stock, commodities, and then a downgrade. and the balance sheet on top of it. sprint is spiking todayment dish network offering unsolicited bid for the phone service provider. our own dr. j, as he usually does, flag down some unusual activity in sprint ahead of all of this, right, doc? >> that's right, judge. the six calls, which were just at the money, in fact, just out of the money, calls, they were bought very aggressively. the 8th and 9th of last week, in
other words beginning of the week, and going into the tail end of the week, they bought the august six calls. so in other words people buying those were buying these in big numbers. 2,000 contracts, 2,500 contracts. that's typically not what you'd expect to see with this softbank deal pending and certainly nobody else, unless they knew a sweetened deal was coming, or this dish deal, would have been bidding up on the call that would basically vaporize on them in just weeks. >> yeah. the stock tanked. the overall market here, as we head to a quick break. the lows of the day now for the major averages. give you a look at the dow, nasdaq, the nasdaq getting hit hard, down 1.5%. and the s&p 500 down a little bit more than 1%. taking a little leg lower since we've been on the air. the dow not getting hit quite as hard but hard enough. 14,723, a loss of nearly 1%. joe? >> that is good support. let's see if it holds. >> all right. coming up on "the half,"
netflix is on the move, benefitting from they call a perfect storm of catalysts. is he right? two of the traders will go head to head and debate that. up next, more than $900 billion in investing adv e advice. j.p. morgan bank, private bank portfolio manager will join us. we'll ask him what this huge commodities sell-off means for stocks and the rally. it's as simple as this. at bny mellon, our business is investments. managing them, moving them, making them work. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives. invested in the world. bny mellon.
as we roll into the second half of our show, we want to check where commodities are currently trading. we updated you on the fact that the major averages are at their lows of the day. there's a good look at what's happening in the gold market. gold's down 8% now. $122. silver is getting hit harder than it usually does. that's something to clearly keep an eye on. silver is down nearly 11%. and there's a look at wti crude off nearly 2.5%. so the commodity sell-off continues. continues as well to lead the overall markets loader. so what are the charts telling us about that sell-off? joining us is mike harris with campbell & company out of baltimore. mike, welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> can you give us your best guess on what's taking place? i know you look at the charts,
you watch the technicals. there was some sort of chatter, speculation, there was a big seller causing perhaps a technical move. lower in gold. what do you know? >> well, as far as looking at the move over the last couple of days, i think it really has formed in two parts. last week, certainly a number of the bank, including goldman, issuing sell recommendations. i talked to your viewers over the last several months, models following us, a fairly significant downtrend in the gold market. we've been short since january. as we look at the big levels coming up, the one i highlighted the last time i was on the program was that 15, 25 level, at the bottom of the trend channel. i think as some of the banks started to encourage sell recommendations, many investors who had been holding that long position for the last couple of years realized that was a line in the sand for many of them where in many cases would definitely be in the red. so i think we saw a lot of liquidation on friday when we got through that large technical level. remember, back in february, we'd already gone through the death cross with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200 day.
and i think that today, as gold has stopped acting like a safe haven, it's joined the commodity basket once again, weaker chinese data overnight. and i think there's been a large amount of commodity liquidation and gold is one of those. >> you've been on the right side of the trade. i don't care if you've been right on this for a while. i think it's fair to say that nobody that's been predicting a gold sell-off, predicted it for the speed and the magnitude in which we're seeing it. i asked that question so that you can figure out if now is a buying opportunity. right? if this has come down farther and faster than you thought it would, do you step in now on the other side? >> that's a great point. as we look technically at the bottom of the market, certainly today, had you interviewed me on the open, i would have told you there was decent support at the march 2011 low, which was 1,381. but we blew right through that. i think you have a bit of a psychological level at 1,350. but then you have to go back to the january 2011 low of 1,309, and probably a little more
support there. hey, i've been calling around the market, talking to some of the uber bulls i know, all of the gold bugs. let's be honest. even they're telling me they don't want to catch a falling knife here. yes, many times momentum does develop in an orderly trend. but in this case, i think mark fisher said it best earlier, there just really doesn't seem to be a lot of bid fwhs this market. i think you're going to continue to see prices head lower before we find real support. >> mike, let me then take and expand upon scott's question. the gold market that we're presented with in 2013 is different than the gold market that i used to trade actively four, five, ten years ago. how much of that -- and this is important to understand -- is because the increased participation of algorhythmic trading in the gold market? >> i wouldn't blame the high-frequency traders. i would say it's become a more crowded trade. it's been a lot of lone money
that's come into the trade the last few years. they've been itching to pull the trigger as the market has been selling off from the highs. and i think that we hit some levels here, and certainly media coverage helps a little bit where people are just getting complete -- you know, very uncomfortable, and they're taking gold out of the portfolio. i mean, let's face it. we've had a sequester, two european shocks, weaker chinese data, and weaker u.s. data, and gold is making new lows, not new highs. so if people bought it as a safehaven, they're removing it from the portfolio, because it's not acting that way. >> not talked about today, like hardly at all, but what's the read on copper? >> well, i think the base metals are part of that larger commodity basket. many people trade the base metals, particularly on the short side, if they don't want to short the chinese equity market or find it hard to do so for liquidity reasons. we certainly have been following a downtrend in the base metals for sometime. copper is still in a two-year trend channel, it's not broken out of the bottom of that. we did cross the 50- -- did cross the 200 day moving
average, and that brought technical sellers in the market. but i think really the chinese economic data last night, in many cases, that increased the selling pressure. we took out 7220 in ail mooen copper. and that will be the big level and the bottom of the channel if we take that out. then it will definitely trend lower. >> excellent as always. mike, thank you so much. >> thanks for having me. >> all right. mike harris. netflix, the stock has exploded to the upside, and off to the races again today. has the stock run too far too fast? we debate it now. mike murphy is our bull, dr. j is the bear. 1:30 on the clock. make your case. >> i think the move you've seen in netflix recently, the upgrade you got today, the $250 price target, really tells you what -- a little bit of the story behind netflix. so you see the stock now above the 50-day moving average for the first time in a couple of weeks. that's a very bullish tone for the stock. and should move up toward the $200 level. also, when they announce
earnings next month, i think -- excuse me, a week from today, earnings announcement, i think you're going to see a big pop in subscribers. and one of the reasons for that, doc, is i think their internal programming. you know, the house of cards, also going to see next month the arrested development show. i think all in all, the stock goes higher. >> i think mike's points are well thought out, but my problem is, number one, that if there's going to be margin selling, they'll be selling the winners. and there's no greater winner out there right now than netflix, which everybody is in. and it's a little bit of a crowded trade. number two, that 180 level. this has been a level that hasn't been able to burst through and stay above. number three, the excitement over the 4 billion hours, that's great. but they have a lot of competitors. it's not just netflix in this space. it's vudu, it's hulu, it's amazon. it's itunes. i think there's a lot of competitors out there -- >> i'd agree with you, doc -- >> the price is up that they'll have to pay in the future. >> one thing, though, 88% of
viewers of the netflix hours are here in the u.s. there is massive upside globally for this company. and above 200, you've seen the stock run before, it could really do it quickly. >> if it does push through 200, then he's going to be absolutely right, judge. but like i say, i think this 180 level, it will be a key level for them to defend. the bulls -- [ buzzer ] -- and we'll see if it pulls back. >> who made the most compelling argument? >> they both did a great job. but i think john -- >> now you sound like dr. j. >> i'm concerned about content cost and the stock isn't exactly cheap. i think people will sell. >> all right. tell us who you think won the debate as well. tweet us @cbsfastmoney. we'll have the results at the end of the show. as we head to the break, let's look at the nasdaq. the worst day of the year. we showed you how it was outpacing the other averages to the downside. there's a look at the chart. pictures don't lie. down 1.5%. next up on "the half," what will this big sell-off in commodities
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fund titans are being paid in this market. of course, it's tax day. but where do most of america's tax cheats live? we know and we'll tell you. now back to scott. >> a good tease there, sue. thanks. let's go to the market flash desk for a look at what's moving. josh? >> hey there, scott. big moves in commodities today. start with gold, as you guys were mentioning, suffering its worst two-day drop in more than 30 years. miners taking a hit here, names like newmont mining, barrett gold. remember we heard today china's first-quarter gdp clocking in weaker than expected, so oil slides, energy one of the worst-performing sectors, pioneer natural resources, some of the worst in the energy space. finally, copper hitting its lows in over a year. freeport free-falling here, down some 7.7% right now. scott, back to you. >> all right, josh, thanks so much. josh lipton, a big focus on commodities. could the sell-off be the thing that ruins the rally? let's ask our next guest, jack
caffrey, portfolio manager for j.p. morgan private bank, oversees more than $900 billion in assets. good to see you out here on the set. what's your read on this, on the rally and the context of commodity sell-off into the whole picture? >> sure. i would actually be see the commodities being the lagging indicator, what we've seen since the middle of the first quarter, economic surprises have been consistently negative. whether you look at the g-10, the united states, europe. to some extent, commodities are catching back up to slowing economic growth. i think the challenge there is thinking that what the pacing of that growth looks like. in our view, it looks more like a smile, a nice high peak in the first quarter, slow in the second, punky in the third, and hopefully accelerating into the fourth quarter. that's what you have to pay attention to. >> you see what it's doing to the market here. >> well -- >> if the commodity story starts to deteriorate even further, couldn't we have a problem? >> yeah, i think it becomes really a function of which commodity you wind up talking about. and having sat in the green room
for a little while, and we have different definitions, what's gold, therefore -- the commodity more interesting to me is energy -- or the energy complex. because that, in my mind, has become a global interest rate. looking at gasoline, diesel. that's really been the rise there, and the fact that's becoming a tax cut right at the time of thinking about the impact of the sequester, thinking the impact of higher withholding taxes, so always looking for good new, but some good news within the commodity sell-off. >> and i think stephanie aptly pointed that out as well. so take the noise of the sellout -- the sell-off out of the picture for a second. where would you look for opportunity within the market away from commodities? >> sure. well, in the equity market, i love looking away from the commodities in that regard. i'm looking at two places. looking for a combination of stability. say dividends, so really dividend growth being more interesting to me than absolute high yield and also improving housing market. that has really been a driver. i think that's important,
because you end up seeing a very domestic-oriented story. a jobs issue we can't outsource really easily. and you're seeing nice recycling and improvement and helping the banks, which were up on the day. >> yeah, well, what's interesting in your views of the market here, you say continue to buy the staples. they've obviously been working. >> mm-hmm. >> one of the leadership groups. you say don't continue to buy the utilities. >> right. >> part of the dividend story in the stocks that have been working. >> you look at two different dividend stories. in the case of the utilities, absolute high yields and in the case of the staples, you look at companies that can continue growing dividends 7%, 10%. not hitting home runs, but consistent, grind-out, stay in the market and continue capturing the -- >> well, what about valuations for the staples? they are trading close to historic highs. >> well, they're trading relatively rich to broad market. you wind up actually having good global growth. you wind up having great balance sheets. and they, you know, compared to what all-time highs, you know, they're not approaching, you
know, five, six year ago valuations. utilities have come back and the sector that's recovered most of the difference. >> on a day like today -- i'm with you on housing and the long-term recovery in housing. >> yes, you are. >> you see a pull-back like this, you guys allocating money today to names in the housing market? >> i was a buyer this morning of the suppliers to the improving housing market. a little less exposure to the classic names and more exposure towards wear, you know, you're starting to hear some discussion that pricing pressures within the housing chain. cost pressures i should -- >> yeah, you heard that today, right, in the report that came out early this morning. but that's a part of the thesis, go with the suppliers rather than the homebuilders themselves? >> yeah, i thought it was interesting that merrill lynch upgraded them. it's not undiscovered. we're been in warehouser for a long time. i'm starting to look at the housing stocks. we were talking offline, back down to $31. it's a fabulous company.
if you can get it on sale, that makes a lot of sense. >> you want to be a liquidity provider on days like today. >> and the bottom line is you continue to do that and you will continue to do that if you get these kinds of days? >> we had, about two months ago, running a little higher cash than i intend normally to do. we've been chipping away at it, and some days people look at me and say, why are you sitting on cash? today, i felt better. >> pain for some opportunity for others. thanks for coming in. >> thank you. you asked for it on twitter. we'll deliver. four plays, four stocks. you can make your next smart move. we're back right after this. ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future.
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welcome back to halftime. the real life case involves the sale of common stock and coal miner america west resources. he and his firm are accused of intame dating registered representatives. the accusations involve a day in february of last year when the finley traded stock opened at 28 cents, spiked to $1.80 and closed at $1.29.
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