Skip to main content

tv   The Kudlow Report  CNBC  August 8, 2013 7:00pm-8:01pm EDT

7:00 pm
i i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to try to find it just for you, right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you next time. . good evening. we are live tonight and i begin with a question. are new economic green chutes popping up around the globe? good news on foreclosures, lower food price, china, japan, even europe. are we underestimating world recovery. and i call it big government at its worst. some cities in california are ready to abuse the eminent domain laws to bail out a few underwater mortgages at the expense of pensions, retirees and savers. it is an unkons tauconstitutions
7:01 pm
grab that must be stopped. and recognize anyone? yeah, that's lois lerner back in 20 so. what she said on that tape may explain the entire irs targeting can sk scandal. we'll let you listen and decide for yourself. all those stories and much more coming up on the "kudlow report" beginning right now. good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is the "kudlow report". first up, let's look at positive signs in the global economy. initial jobless data out today. lowest level since before the recession. mortgage delinquencies, five year low. even traces of growth abroad. so my question is a simple one. are we underestimating the global economy? maybe we're all too pessimistic.
7:02 pm
or maybe not. here from the cme is rick santelli, also with us joe la voin i can't and jared bernstein. rick santelli, such a pleasure to have you back on the show. i go to you first. rick, your jobless claims have come down, lowest since november '07. food prices are actually falling in a new report today. that's great for consumers. and what really caught my eye was that serious u.s. mortgage delink gwe delinquencies a five year low. maybe things are better. >> all i can think is maybe we overestimated some of the down side whether in u.s., europe. but i think we're overprizing stabilization. i think positive things are happening, but then again, time
7:03 pm
does heal all wounds. and if things were so absolutely green shooting oig, and we're used that term before several years ago, we shouldn't have to use it twice. either they're green shoots or just vines and i can't tell which you. but i will tell you this, it's a circular argument. if things were as good as where he want to paept thint them, th can't the fed vacate the premises. why can't bank of japan vacate the premises and why can't europe vacate the premises from the standpoint of central banks. >> i think it's coming. the guy from england sounds like the guy from the ecb, sounds like bernanke, sounds like the people from japan. very interesting to me. but i think you have an important point. by the way, years ago i called them mustard seeds and they started to grow. but they did not grow enough. >> and we're still trying to catch up with the economy. >> i know.
7:04 pm
and i'm not a roaring bull here. i'm just putting this stuff on the table. already, jared bernstein, what's your take on the story. >> i like your optimism and you can certainly point to some things, we haven't mentioned housing, but clearly not only is the housing market help to go boost growth in a way that it was going exactly the opposite direction for years of course, but also there is a wealth effect. and if you think that about every dollar of housing wealth translates into another six cents of extra consumption, it's one reason why theyunder stateme estimated growth first half of the year. but fiscal and monetary is where i differ from others. you saw what happened when the fed made a pretty oblique suggestion about tapering interest rates went up about a point. so if interest rates go up too quickly and fiscal policy
7:05 pm
continues to blow head wind, that will continue to push the other way. >> i don't know, joe, i'm on the other side of both of those. number one, i think higher interest rates show better economic growth and normalization and number two, i love it that we have a spending cut going on this washington, d.c.. i think we should have more spending cuts. but i want to get your take not only on the usa, but also we have better trade numbers out of china both imports and exports. japan has been producing better numbers, i'm not saying any of this is perfect. even europe is showing up, their purchasing managers look a little better, germany's production looks better. is it possible that even europe is improving? >> the firm view at deutsche bank is that europe will get recession this year, so i agree the european data look better. the case is the same with japan. certainly the global economy looks better. and part of that is the u.s.. the u.s. economy is firming. still awfully weak, but it is getting better. having said that, the corporate
7:06 pm
sector is vexcellent. interest rates have risen a percentage point, but they're still awfully low. we had the same kind of move back in 2003. and '04/05 growth was excellent. >> why is it gdp stinks? why are there so many people working part time? i'm actually a real list. realist. >> we've had the best job growth since '05. 190,000 a month is okay.>> we'vh since '05. 190,000 a month is okay. most of the weaknesses in services, this is the only cycle in the last 70, where service spending actually shrunk. doesn't mean the economy is doing great, but i think there is real measurement problems with the data. >> i have a absolutely different perspective on gdp. i think if you decompose the
7:07 pm
components, you'll find capital e investment has been uniquely weak. >> but rick santelli, capital investment may be uniquely weak even though companies are profitable because of things like obamacare and other regulatory threats and other tax threats. there are down seides to this story. >> and i find it fascinating when you talk about overregulation, and it isn't about regulation and this is why politics is just such a horrible topic, good regulations and bad regulations are all regulations so they get lumped together. and when you go into this argument, you'll see many say, well, how could they have record profits if there is all of this headwind with regard to regulation. because a lot of the headwind is for the smaller mid-sized companies, a lot of the issues evaporate if you're a very big company, and i think we now live in a world where it's very difficult to acknowledge, but if you look at the '50s and '60s,
7:08 pm
it's smokestack america and how many people they needed to employ to create one percentage point of gdp. you can now have companies like a google, like an apple, where they can do it with so many less employees. to me the big structural dynamic around the globe that i haven't seen change is the reality of creating good jobs and strong middle class and i think without those, that it is only a move towards normalcy and not that that's bad, and i'll take it a step further, joe, do you really believe the 190,000 jobs number is painting the kind of picture even ben bernanke now that he's tied his programs to interest rates, there's a new dose of honesty there that the number advertised isn't really representative of the product behind the number. >> it's not great. i agree with you. however, it is twice the pace that the fed had seen at the time they announced qe-3. and i think your point at the outset of the show is correct in the sense that there is never a good time for the fed ever to tighten or slow the pace of the
7:09 pm
easing -- >> some cities are hard to remove. >> they have themselves stuck in this bind. and the problem will be long term. the longer the fed keeps it in place, the risk of financial instability at some point down the line is signatuificant. but probably years away. so in the short term, policymakers don't worry about it and they should. >> getting back to the broader economy, my view is that basically we have an economy that is growing at trend. we have job growth growing at trend. gdp is a little below trend, but it will probably pick up. we still have output gaps whether gdp or jobs. so we haven't really earned our trend. we had a very deep recession which we needed to have pounbou back to. we settled into the trend too soon. >> i'd argue trend is probably closer to 1% to 1.5% because of a lack of capital deepening.
7:10 pm
which is why even in a 2% gdp environment, the unemployment rate can fall. >> so you think the economy speed limit has come down. >> i was happy to see china's trade numbers improve, anything good coming out of europe at all. but i have to tell you, rick santelli, i want to come back to you to close this segment. the trouble with this whole story is there is too much big government spending. and the second -- let me finish. >> we have an a-rod economy. i'm saying we have no idea how many home runs he could hit without the juice. so without the juice, all of these metrics are meaningless. >> not only that not enough milton friedman, not enough arthur laffer, and not enough free market economics. if we had gone to free market
7:11 pm
economics away the globe like we did in the 1980s, the world economy today would be booming. [ everybody talking at once ] >> go ahead, rick. >> central banks don't like bad news. they don't want real recessions, they don't want anything to show any contraction. so all the things they do to artificially hold this up have a price. and the price starts with an m and at the ends with mediocrity. what it means is we'll have a lot of average down the road. clear the zone. grow up. experience a little bit of pain until ultimately you you can fuel growth. you can spending, you see a sequester, the numbers go down. of course. you're paying for growth. that becomes a negative.
7:12 pm
>> i'll give you the last word. >> you may not want to talk about it, but the fact is that gdp is growing too slowly and unemployment is too high. keynesian economics doesn't mean you're using fiscal policy to help the economy all the time. in fact we'll have to pull back just like the fed. but you will be hard pressed to find an economist outside perhaps of this panel who will not say the following. we actually need fiscal policy to be helping us right now, not pushing the wrong way. >> but it should have come in the form of investment, incentive creating lower mar begin marginal tax rate reform, along with spending reform, along with regulatory reform. because the engine of recoverya marginal tax rate reform, along with spending reform, along with regulatory reform. because the engine of recoveryr marginal tax rate reform, along with spending reform, along with regulatory reform. because the engine of recovery marginal tax rate reform, along with spending reform, along with regulatory reform. because the engine of recoverym with spending reform, along with regulatory reform. because the engine of recovery in japan, europe, the u.s. and even china must come from the private sector. and these guys have tried to stifle the private sector now
7:13 pm
for four to five years. >> it's really a short term. as long as the private sector is not yet fully back on the screen, we still need the g in the equation. that's all. >> rick, thank you very much. jared as always. that was nice and low key. now, very important discovery in the irs targeting scandal.ler n talking now, but she was three years ago and it might blow the doors open and the man who broke the story is about to join us. please don't forget free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. that's innovation. that's creativity. that is private sector growth. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] come to the lexus
7:14 pm
golden opportunity sales event and choose from one of five lexus hybrids that's right for you, including the lexus es and ct hybrids. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection. but you had to leave rightce to now, would you go? world, man: 'oh i can't go tonight' woman: 'i can't.' hero : that's what expedia asked me. host: book the flight but you have to go right now. hero: (laughs) and i just go? this is for real right? this is for real? i always said one day i'd go to china, just never thought it'd be today. anncr: we're giving away a trip every day. download the expedia app and your next trip could be on us. expedia, find yours. ♪
7:15 pm
you're not made of money, so don't overpay for boat insurance. geico, see how much you could save. to experience the precision handling of the lexus performance vehicles, including the gs and all-new is. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection.
7:16 pm
she's remained mum since taking the fifth during her congressional hearing last may. but the official at the center of the irs targeting firestorm, lois lerner, openly admitted to political bias way back in may 2010. in a newly surfaced video
7:17 pm
uncovered by breitbart news, learner oig told a group of students that there was pressure on the irs to, quote, fix the problem of money going to conservative medical action groups. take a listen. >> every is up in arms because they don't like it. federal election can't do anything about it and they want the irs to fix the problem. so everybody is screaming at us fix it now before the election. can't you see how much these people are spending. >> all right. here now is the breitbart reporter who broke this story, josh sexton. welcome to the show. so let me just get this right. citizens united supreme court case comes down. allows corporations to get involved in political campaigns. obama trashes the supremes at the state of the union message. and that sets off a firestorm and obama continues to trash them. now, is lois lerner at duke echoing essentially what
7:18 pm
president obama was saying, trashing the citizens united idea of going through he's conservative groups for politics? >> yes, she is echoing it. in fact she actually paraphrases what he said in his state of the union. he said that the supreme court had overturned a century of pre precedent and she essentially echos that. and pretty much wholesale adopteded his view of the situation. and i think that's what's important about this clip is that it shows that there was a political firestorm taking place outside of the irs and sec at the time. and what the videotape shows is that lois lerner and other people were aware of it. they felt the pressure that was coming in from outside. >> so let me get this straight because this is important. you're saying that lois lerner actually used a 100 year quote that obama used regarding citizens united? she actually used that same quote? >> yeah, the words are not
7:19 pm
identical, but it's essentially the same thing that he said when he stood in his state of the union in 2010 and with the members of the supreme court sitting in front of him said that they had opened the floodgates to special interest money and then called for congress to do something about that and which they eventually did. chuck schumer and the white house put together this bill called the disclose act and the president pushed that for almost all of 2010 up until september when it finally died. so, yeah, he was pushing this hard. in fact he gave a weekly address in which he said that he was trying to prevent corporations from taking over our democracy. >> so is lois lerner in this tape, is she telling these kids at duke or duke law school, she's saying it's a democratic firestorm, it's an obama firestorm, the federal election commission complaint fix it the
7:20 pm
irs can fix it. is that her line of thinking right then and there? speak spent t she spent the next two years trying to block the conservative groups. >> there is a gap. what she says in the video isir about it, but she's talking about 501-c 4 groups that are already in existence and she said she won't know whether they exceeded their limits until they turn in their 990s next year. however we now know that someone found that they could gum up the works for new applicants and that is indeed what happened at the irs. >> and that's essentially you think lois lerner quarterbacked that or was a key player in that and that the story, the anti-department goes all the way back to 2010? in basically what i'm saying is that it was president obama who led the chargement goes all the
7:21 pm
back to 2010? in basically what i'm saying is that it was president obama who led the charge he was the person leading the push back on the citizens united case. and so he said that our democracy was at stake. he said this more than once. so i think what you see is that somebody believed him. somebody believed him and decided to do something about it. now, we don't know if it was lois lerner because she won't testify before congress. >> so over the next two years, somebody was implementing a policy which essentially singled out these conservative groups and slowed that whole thing down. so you're saying there is pot going to be a memo, you're never going to get a presidential memo on this, it's just a question of what president obama said and said it many times and how that gets picked up by senior bureaucrats like lois lerner who used to be at the federal election commission and then switched over to the irs. >> yeah, i think this is a case of who will rid me of this troublesome tea party. i don't think there is going to be a smoking gun memo because i
7:22 pm
think they're frankly too smart for that. but i think the president was leading the charge. he made this an issue. the press picked it up. and the irs pays attention to what's going on out there. and they kept this locked up for two years until may of 2012. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks very much. john sexton of breitbart. appreciate it. now, we had key after the bell earnings reports and a nasty battle between bill ackman and george soros just got nastier. seema mody had those headlines and much more coming up next. [ male announcer ] ok, here's the way the system works.
7:23 pm
let's say you pay your guy around 2% to manage your money. that's not much you think. except it's 2% every year. does that make a difference? search "cost of financial advisors" ouch. over time it really adds up. then go to e-trade and find out how much our advice costs. spoiler alert: it's low. really? yes, really. e-trade offers investment advice and guidance from dedicated, professional financial consultants. it's guidance on your terms, not ours. that's how our system works. e-trade. less for us. more for you. that's how our system works. trust your instincts to make the call. to treat my low testosterone, my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur.
7:24 pm
report these symptoms to your doctor. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate symptoms; decreased sperm count; ankle, feet or body swelling; enlarged or painful breasts; problems breathing while sleeping; and blood clots in the legs. common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. ask your doctor about the only underarm low t treatment, axiron. and then another. and another. and if you do it. and your friends do it. and their friends do it... soon we'll be walking our way to awareness, support and an end to alzheimer's disease. and that? that would be big. grab your friends and family and start a team today. register at
7:25 pm
latest episode in the battle of the billionaires. george soros pulls his money out of b of bill ackman's fund. see made hoagie joins us with that and more. >> sore rows' fund management pulling all of its money. the amount is reportedly less than $250 million. last week beingackman filed a complaint saying he was trying to create a short squeeze in herbalife. and he's in a battle with the board of jft krflt penny. ackman has a big establishing in the company and today he released a letter pushing the company to name a new ceo in the next 45 days. the board saying it is happy with the progress under mike
7:26 pm
ullman and is angry at alaska ackman the letter to the presented. and sandra and pianalto is retiring. some market watchers blame the dow's losses at least in part on her comments and now she announces her retirement. stock specific action, shares of getting close to $1,000 a share after reporting earnings of $9.70 a share, better than analyst estimates thanks to an increase in bookings and uptick of demand from europe. and the sec wants jpmorgan to admit wrong doing in the london whale case. a lot of types these end with a settlement when the company pay as fine but doesn't admit guilt. now the sec reportedly looking for more admissions in these type of cases. what do you think of that?
7:27 pm
>> i think the sec really wants to prove its manhood is what i think. but i wanted to ask you, mr. ackman, who is in some sense the fight of his life on her herballife is picking a funlg fight with jp penny. i don't see why. >> this has been a common trend in the past year or two. more of these investors being vocal about their opinion on a certain stock and it's really interesting to see them. >> only so many hours in a day that you can do all this. anyway, seema mody, thanks very much. can you believe this? major city in california is about to use eminent domain laws not to sweep away urban blight, but to score left wing political points with mortgage bailouts for a few at the expense of pensions, retirees and savers. this is statism and government intrusion at its worst. and it could go national.
7:28 pm
we'll debate next. ♪ [ male announcer ] you wait all year for summer. ♪ this summer was definitely worth the wait. ♪ summer's best event from cadillac. let summer try and pass you by. lease this all-new cadillac ats for around $299 per month or purchase for 0% apr for 60 months. come in now for the best offers of the model year. you know it even after all these years. but your erectile dysfunction - you know,that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all
7:29 pm
your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial.
7:30 pm
>> reporter: odefunds or delay? i say a one year delay of all
7:31 pm
the obamacare mandates and taxes is the best strategy, but others want complete defunding. and please, please don't even get started with government shutdowns and debt ceiling battles. i don't want to see that. also we have raging bull. you'll have to hear it coming up. but first up, a fight brewing over imminent domain abuse in california. the san francisco suburb of richmond wants to use imminent domain to force banks to sell a few underwater mortgages to the city. i believe this is an unconstitutional use of imminent domain which is a rarely used government power to acquire property by force. joining me now onset is a law professor at cornell university and adviser to mortgage resolution partners. and from washington, director of financial regulation studies at the cato institute.
7:32 pm
welcome. to me, this is a misuse before imminent domain is for forcibly acquiring land that helps the whole city.before imminent domain is for forcibly acquiring land that helps the whole city. a bridge, a road. this is to help bail out a few mortgages. and it will disrupt so many things along the way. i just think this is unconstitutional. >> i think you are right in characterizing the plan as you do, then there would be a difficulty. but that's not the plan. the long term point is to take more mortgages. the first match is about 624. the ultimate plan is to take more than that and again the idea is to pay fair value for them in order to enable them to be written down in a way that salvages value, in a way that you see actual portfolio loans doing already. >> but what did i read, 442 or 44 # 4 peop 444 people are current on their payment. richmond is not all that big.
7:33 pm
there have been so many cockamamy plans to help bail out mortgages. this just looks like another back door. and with eminent domain which is a powerful instrument, i don't see how you get there. >> again, the theory behind it is that you only go for mortgage loans whose values can be increased by writing them down. you see write-downs occurring at high rates among portfolio loan holders. it's just that in the case of the securitized loans, there are so many structural impediments that you need a tool like imminent domain to get through those. but the idea as i first conceived the idea a long time ago, the whole point was to enable basically investors to aid themselves in addition to aiding homeowners by raising the value of loans by writing them down. >> investors hate this, so they're not too thrilled about this. wells fargo and deutsche bank
7:34 pm
and blackrock and pimco, they're all against this. but to me, this is an overstepping of imminent domain. what is your take? >> i have to agree with you. i don't like it even when for a public use like building a road. but taking from investors and giving to borrowers, you are not increasing net woelealth. there is no public use value created. and if a community wants to build a road, usually the community is supportive of it. i have yet to meet an investor that wants to have their loans pushed down this way. so there is no some collective action problem to be solved by investors here. also the president earlier this week talked about we need to get private capital back into the mortgage market. what private investor ever will want to if every time they turn on the tv they're hearing about how the mortgage value can be stolen away from them by
7:35 pm
government. >> this is like sovereign debt default. at the end of the day, you're going to be hurting. these mortgage holders, these authority gamg investors, these are not necessarily rich people. >> i agree. >> these can be retirees, they can be pension funds, they can be ordinary savers. you're taking money from them and you're only hitting a few people. that's the thing. richmond, california, most are current on their mortgages. why do we have to bail out a few people at the expense of the many and at the expense of credit? mark is right. nobody is going to make a loan to this town again. >> we respectfully disagree oftentimes. i would agree with you if you had properly characterized what's ofafoot here. the idea is to aid investors and homeowners alike. and another way of saying the idea is to write down loans in a way that salvages value, then
7:36 pm
distribute that value sanlged value over all stakeholders. >> i used to be in the financial business p. how does a loan write-down benefit investors? >> consider what the default risk is on a deeply underwater loan. it's quite high. if you look at the 10 k, 10 q forms, their loans that are 120 or higher default at remarkably high rates or at least are subject to high default risk. so you look at the subprimes that are held by fannie and freddie. they're defaulting at 5a 71% rate. >> but there is a rally going on. >> not in richmond. >> well, i've never been in richmond. i don't think i have. but mark, in one of the earlier segments on this show, one of the key points we were talking about is that delinquent loans are now shrinking so much, we're going back five, six, seven, eight years. prices are rising. underwater mortgages won't stay underwater. the market place is healing us.
7:37 pm
we don't need imminent dough ma domain. >> i agree. what is the just compensation. the truth is the vast majority do not walk away. set aside the third or so that are in default. the vast majority of those who are paying today will continue to pay. a mortgage that is paying is worth the face value of that mortgage. so for their plan to work, they're going to pay something like 40, 50 crepents on the doo when the var fall has to be closer to 90, 95 cents. and the market is getting better. the loans in california, 3 perce3% are in foreclosure. so again, the argument that somehow these loans are 50%, 60% bad? that number is just out of
7:38 pm
reality. >> a quick response. >> all you have to do is look at the 10 k and 10 q filings. those are the default risks that they assigned. >> you should be direct about this. you basically want to bail out people who probably shouldn't have afforded or couldn't have afforded it. to use imminent domain which is a very powerful state government weapon for heaven sake, that stuff's for roads and bridges. that's not know helping underwater mortgages. >> it's for any public purpose. >> what about the private investors? >> the private investors benefit if the plan is done correctly. >> why are all these people suing? again, wells fargo, ditch bankw deutsche bank, they're all coming after you. >> the securitization industry
7:39 pm
opposes this. fannie and freddie, it's basically fhfa which is run by a man who has ideological difficulties with principal reduction even when they are financially rational. >> i think the market will solve a lot of these problems. anyway, we can't go through this tonight. robert, mark, thank you very much. betwe good to see you. folks, is bill gross right? should you keep your money in bonds or should you get out fast? we'll look at that and the whole day a wall street just ahead. meet the newest member of the quicken loans family:
7:40 pm
j.d. power and associates has ranked quicken loans highest in the nation in customer satisfaction... i say "family," because we've been blessed with this honor for 3 years in a row... rest assured we'll treat all of your mortgage needs with tender loving care. amazing client satisfaction: it's a quicken loans family value. call 800-quicken or go to to experience it for youf.
7:41 pm
but you had to leave rightce to now, would you go? world, man: 'oh i can't go tonight' woman: 'i can't.' hero : that's what expedia asked me.
7:42 pm
host: book the flight but you have to go right now. hero: (laughs) and i just go? this is for real right? this is for real? i always said one day i'd go to china, just never thought it'd be today. anncr: we're giving away a trip every day. download the expedia app and your next trip could be on us. expedia, find yours. bill gross is declaring a war to defend bonds in his latest monote today. he says while containing a certain amount of maturity risk will never be antiquated, don't give up on bonds. so will mr. gross win this war? here now is chief investment officer of global committees at federated investors and president and ceo of stifel nicolaus. steve, i begin with you because of the bill gross defense of
7:43 pm
bonds. would you buy bonds right now? >> we're telling people sell all the bonds they have. >> and that's what gross is saying don't do. where do yyou disagree with him? >> over a million people died in the battle and a lot of innocent by sander is a standers are kil. we think people are underestimating the economic recovery last year.standers are. we think people are underestimating the economic recovery last year. we being equities are interesting into the second leg of the bull market. first leg was the world is not ending tomorrow. the companies we're talking about and invest toors that i d with, i'm finally not getting push back on the idea that the world is not going to end. i think a collective light bulb has gone off. we've got all this pent up
7:44 pm
demand. household balance sheets are repaired. corporates are in the best shape they have ever been. i think suddenly, and that's she's green sho these green shoots you're talking about, everybody is saying i can invest. >> i've been optimistic since august of 2011, but we've seen a market that was grocery undervalued because people thought the world was going to come to an end. but we're getting near fair value. and unless we find a way to get out of a trend gdp of 2%, then this market is going to be trading range bound. we need tax policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory policy, all which have today are not friendly to free market capitalism. so we have to get the market to go higher. >> we may have to wait a while.. so we have to get the market to go higher. >> we may have to wait a while. when you say we're at fair
7:45 pm
value, you don't want to buy bonds but you don't like stocks either. >> all i'm saying is fair value to me is 1800 on the s&p, about a 6% year. i think the ten year will be 3 to 3 1/2. and what will drive the market higher will be true gdp growth. and i hope as the other guest said 3.5% to 4%, the market will be on fire. but if it's 1.5% to 2%, i don't think so. >> let me ask you, steve, where do you get the 3.5% to 4%? that's a high estimate. >> i got housing will double. we have a million housing starts. we need to get to two. household deformation for the last five years. skron johnny and mary are moving out of the basement. construction used to be 9% of u.s. gdp forever. it's been stuck at 5%. nonresidential construction hasn't kicked in yet. we think it's a huge multiplier. one is that. two is energy.
7:46 pm
as much as the administration tries to stop pipelines and whatever else, american enterprise gets around them. they're training the oil now to the coast. >> what about slowdown in profits? profits are still rising, but more slowly. and i think ron is worried about that in the context of growth. what happens if profits don't keep rising? >> i think they will rise a lot here because what's happened is the corporate sector has bought into, okay, maybe the word won't end, but it will never grow. so if you look at the companies we're talking with, they have cut their cost structures very lean. if you get a top line surprise in this economy, it's going to pour through. >> ron, what do you think of that, could a we be surprised on the up side the way we're discussing here? >> 3.5% to 4% gdp growth? absolutely surprise. but we have yet to string four quarters in a row that add up on 3%. so i look apple pie and
7:47 pm
motherhood and american entrepreneurship, i'm all for it. but i don't think that we're going to get there without dealing with the fiscal issues. our tax policy is an absolute mess. so i think i want leadership to help us get through this. it ain't going to happen by itself. >> and not going to happen for a while. you're talking about political change and undoubtedly electoral change. so you think we'll have a flat market for the foreseeable future? >> again i'll hope that our other guest here is right at 4%. and then go long and go very long. but i don't see it right now. not from where i sit. >> what about bonds? what about bill gross defending bonds? >> i want to get out if i'm only going to get 2.5% for the next ten years. >> so not in the gross camp. >> bonds are appropriate for some people. but most of the people i've talked to want growth. and i'm done if i'm getting
7:48 pm
2.5%. >> what's your stiingle favorit investment? >> i like financials. i think all the things that we're talking about here, housing and all of that, you still have financials that are very cheap. and financials, if we're going to have that kind of growth, own financials, own tech. i like both of them. >> all right. steve, your favorite investment. >> i go fortune brands. housing related space, i think that's a big piece of the driver here. they're part of the whole buildout. i'm a buyer on dips on getityeq. we like the financials, too. >> you're not worried -- last thing. really over the next few years, one way are or the other, we're going to see monetary tightening. it may start slow, but it will pick up steam. and we're really looking at certainly next year and the year after that. are you concerned that that is going to interrupt the stock market advance? >> i think it will be the wall of worry and i think we'll get
7:49 pm
little bupull backs. but as long as the fed is tightening in to growth. if you look back, when they're tightening into growth, the growth comes through. i'm okay. and this guy wrote the ph.d. on the great depression. he's not going to tighten into a slowdown. so if we do, i got a bernanke put. >> let us hope. although that job is going to be changing. >> larry, we need revenue growth. we get revenue growth, this market will be fine. we stay 2% gdp growth, this market is going to be trading range or multiples will contract. so let's go for growth. >> all right. go for growth. thanks very much. now, the great obamacare debate continues to rage on. what is the best way to stop this new law and the ill effects it will have on the economy and our health some pushing for a one year delay is the best part,
7:50 pm
but the defund movement is coming on strong, too. a debate next. and experience the connectivity of the available lexus enform, including the es and rx. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection. ♪ we've been bringing people together. today, we'd like people to come together on something that concerns all of us. obesity. and as the nation's leading beverage company, we can play an important role. that includes continually providing more options. giving people easy ways to help make informed choices. and offering portion controlled versions of our most popular drinks. it also means working with our industry to voluntarily change what's offered in schools. but beating obesity will take continued action by all of us, based on one simple common sense fact... all calories count. and if you eat and drink more calories than you burn off, you'll gain weight.
7:51 pm
that goes for coca-cola, and everything else with calories. finding a solution will take all of us. but at coca-cola, we know when people come together, good things happen. to learn more, visit golden opportunity sales event and choose from one of five lexus hybrids that's right for you, including the lexus es and ct hybrids. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection.
7:52 pm
call it the gop and obamacare split. to defund or to delay. this week a group of 34 conservative activists september sent a letter urging a one year delay of all of obamacare provisions and that includes tax hikes. .
7:53 pm
but there is also a movement to try to defund the entire law.bu try to defund the entire law. dan, let me begin with you you. because as far as i know the law, and i'm reading the congressional research service and what other senators are putting out, even if you defund it, the entitlements would continue under this obamacare law. and your mission to repeal will not be accomplished. >> no, you have it a little wrong. no one is talking about simply defunding the discretionary spending. what we're talking about is attaching a legislative ryder that would say no more entitlements, no more implementation, so it is a blanket defunding. and it can be done. >> it can be, but the president will never sign such a bill and
7:54 pm
i fear that this will all run into some kind of government shutdown or debt ceiling problem or worse. and that becomes the issue. not obamacare. >> i signed both letters. i think you can be for defunding and delaying. i'm for doing anything we can that can move the ball on getting rid of the terrible health care law. but i think that the delay option gives us the upper happened in a way that just a blanket demand for defund doesn't. and that's that we have strong public opinion on our side on a lot of the central provisions not taking effect next year. especially the individual mandate. when you talk about the employer mandate being delayed by the president, there are now only 12% of americans who think the individual mandate should take effect next year. so if we focus on delaying things like the mandate, the subsidies because there is no verification system to prevent fraud, i think we can really get the upper land and put a lot most of pressure on the president than if we just have a
7:55 pm
blanket demand on defunding. >> dan, i think delaying the individual mandate might actually pass the senate. and i think you'd have less aggravation in terms of shutdowns and all those threats, but so much of a political coalition. why not do it? i'm for repeal of the whole thing, but why not tactically go for shutting down the individual mandate? >> on october 1st, people started signing up for the obamacare exchanges. on january 1r, money starts flying out the door. will a simple delay solve those problems? no. even if president obama does sign it, we're still going to be faced with a crushing new wave of entitlements on january 1st which is doctis why we have to the entire thing. >> i think we have a very strong argument on the delay front no delaying the subsidies, as well. the fraud protection data security system won't be tested
7:56 pm
until the day before open enrollment. the california insurance commissioner warns navigators may commit fraud. we don't have a verification system because the employers aren't reporting. so all of the practical facts on the ground support a delay of the subsidies, as well. and that's central to our delay letter. it's not just the mandates. everything should be pushed a year and i think the rationale we have which will resonate with the public is they had four years to do it and it's just not ready. >> the only way to actually delay the law is to deny funding. because if you severally delay the especialnactment date, come they will roll out obamacare 2.0 and say, look, we finally got everything working right, aren't you glad you gave us that year delay. >> we've got some elections between now and then. and of course we'll have to take this before the american people. and i actually think this is where all of us, larry and dan,
7:57 pm
we need to unify and in august we really need to put the pressure on some of these in cycle senate democrats. say what are you going to do to give us some relief from this terrible law taking effect. make them have to do something. >> i have to jump. thank you, gentlemen. i wish you both luck. that's it for tonight's show. i'm larry kudlow. thanks for watching. i want to repeal obamacare, too. ♪ [ male announcer ] you wait all year for summer. ♪ this summer was definitely worth the wait. ♪ summer's best event from cadillac. let summer try and pass you by. lease this all-new cadillac xts for around $399 per month or purchase for 0% apr for 60 months. come in now for the best offers of the model year. a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion.
7:58 pm
staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier. celebrex can be taken with or without food. and it's not a narcotic. you and your doctor should balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning. they all may increase the chance of heart attack or stroke, which can lead to death. this chance increases if you have heart disease or risk factors such as high blood pressure or when nsaids are taken for long periods. nsaids, like celebrex, increase the chance of serious skin or allergic reactions, or stomach and intestine problems, such as bleeding and ulcers, which can occur without warning and may cause death. patients also taking aspirin and the elderly
7:59 pm
are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. don't take celebrex if you have bleeding in the stomach or intestine, or had an asthma attack, hives, other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides. get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history. and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. visit and ask your doctor about celebrex. (announcer) at scottrade, our clto make their money do (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade... ranked "highest in customer loyalty for brokerage and investment companies."
8:00 pm
>> in this episode of "american greed," it's one of the largest art thefts in the united states. >> there was wall to wall art work, sculptures, paintings, prints, drawings. >> four million dollars of fine art, vanishes. >> the "rothko" was worth the most. >> "picasso" print, this is the golden egg. >> now, the thief tells all. >> you know, i looked at byron and said, "you know, "we'll either be princes "or prisoners, you know, "if this thing goes wrong." >> and later, in cleveland, a doctor is a hypocrite with a "hippocratic oath." >> what is he doing? it's a really big disgrace. >> giving painful, dangerous injections. >> oh, this is just awful. >> the multi million dollar freud scheme that ends in death. >> i lost my best friend. i lost my husband.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on