tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 12, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
three days for the dow and s&p since october 7th through 9th. >> the better the data gets, the worse the market performs. >> as cramer said, some institutions locking in a good year ahead of what may be a taper next week at the fed meeting. let's get back to headquarters and check in with scott wapner and the "halftime." >> guys, thanks so much. facebook's new friend. as the company is added to the s&p 500, does it set a new bar for where the stock could go next? next big thing, buddy media, and runs salesforce. what social and tech plays would he make now? we'll ask mike lazaro later on. and stocks coming off the biggest two-day decline in two months. the russell 2000 closing below the 50-day moving average, so is the recent weakness in small caps a big problem for the bulls? it's "halftime." let's go to you, jon najarian, in the worst three-day stretch since october 7th, 8th, and 9th.
and the small caps are leading the way down. >> today, of course, one of the small cap leaders to the downside was athena health. athena coming out with some weak guidance. that was hurting them. it's a diversified group of stocks. more diversified, judge, than the s&p 500. you know that, of course. but it's also weightings of different sectors within each of these makes, to me, the iwm or the small caps, more attractive than the big caps right here. >> i'm wondering if you think more attractive, or more worrisome? >> more attract -- >> for where the rally will go, right? small caps if they lead on the way up, the fear is they lead on the way down. >> right. >> and week-to-date, the russell 2000 is down 2.5%. >> absolutely. >> playing catch-up. >> i'm with doc, though. if you believe that the market is going to roll over here, that's one of the first places he'd look to short is the iwm. yeah, they had a weak close yesterday, but it actually, if you look at the iwm index, the small-cap index, it actually held levels today and rallied back above 110.
so that's a positive for the small caps. yes, if small caps roll over, that's not -- there's no good news there whatsoever. >> my question, though, is not if they roll over. are they rolling over, stephanie link? >> are they? >> it's too early to tell. it's way too early. up year to date 30%, so of course you'll take profits. we have to get through the fomc meeting next week. the retail sales were encouraging. initial claims, noisy from the holiday, too. if you kind of smooth it out, you're running about a 320,000 initial claim number, and i think that's pretty encouraging. again, we talked about pmis, isms, and i'm encouraged to see the financials are outperforming again. what bothered me on friday is the financials did not lead us into the rally after the nonfarm job number. today and the last couple of days, this he have. that speaks to people getting more confident in the overall stories of the sector, and i think that that could be the next leading group.
>> anthony, what happens if the liquidity-driven rally we talked about gets less liquid next week? >> it may be a temporary sell-off, but again, you're talking -- what's the fed going to do, take it down $10 billion? $15 billion? let's think about what that is. they're still buying $70 billion of assets every month. so this is a very, very liquid, very accommodating fed. on the issues of the small caps, though, scott, i think what people have to understand is the data for the economy going into '14 is stronger than all of us had originally thought. if you had asked me six months ago if i thought the data would be this strong, i would have said no way, and as a result, the small caps will surprise people next year, and i think they'll do well, and i'll take stephanie's position, which i think you're making, they're up 30%. maybe there's a near-term correction here, but it's not clear that they're quote/unquote rolling over. they're probably going up. >> are we still feeling good about the so-called good news that continues to come down the pike? retail sales better than expected.
budget deal yesterday versus the taper versus the small cap issue. who knows if that's going to become a larger issue. >> yeah, and you still have to wonder, judge, next week, what are the odds right now, guys, i'll ask everybody, what are the odds next week that we will see a taper? is anybody here on the desk even a 50/50 for that? because i'm still, judge, in the very minority, i think, maybe 20%, 25% we get the taper next week. i think january or march are what i'm targeting and still targeting. i don't think we get it next week. >> can i say something? >> i was going to say we've talked all along if and when the taper comes, as long as it comes for the right reasons, then it's a positive. so in answer to your question, scott, absolutely, you're getting positive economic data. so whether the taper comes next week, next month, it's going to be a good, and the market's ready for it. >> watch for the yield curve. watch the velocity of the backup in rates. >> the 10-year is moving up, right, 2.86 and change. >> but it can handle 2.8, and even handle 3, which is why i
focus on the economic data points. >> history will reflect well on the policymakers. back in singapore, secretary geithner said if you had the choice between giving this much medicine, showing my hands, or that much medicine, way more, the policymakers are going to give that much medicine as i give michael a black eye. but the point that i'm making here is that i'm in jon's camp, they're not going to taper. if they do taper, it will be due to political reasons. i don't think the data suggests to them with a 13.2% u-6 unemployment number is -- >> is the jury still out whether santa claus will show up, or you guys need to see what happens next week with the fed? >> i think the next two weeks it's really hard you'll do anything -- you'll get too many major directions unless the fed does something. a lot of people have packed things up and gone home for the year. there's not a lot of volume. that will lead to increased volatility. yeah, we will trade off the fed news. but right now, you want to be looking forward to what's going on the first quarter of next
year, not will happen -- >> and u the volatility to position for the 2014 and the sectors you like. we like financials, industrials, some of the technology stocks. i think you can look at some of the lack of liquidity and the opportunities as a way to position your portfolio. >> let's do the "trader blitz," four trades on four stocks making big news. freeport saying the import ban would slash the revenue next year. murphy? >> you look on the headline, it looks like a negative story. if you look at the way the stock is reacting, it's trading off with the rest of the market on this news. freeport's already had a correction of about 12%. if you believe in an improving economy, not only in the u.s., but globally, freeport's a great way to play that. and we talk about it a lot. they give you a great dividend. so this headline news today isn't a major negative. you can look at this stock, if you get it down near the 4% dividend yield, we talk about it all the time, it's a great buy. >> doc, it mentioned athena health, the provider of
electronic health records issuing 2014 guidance that fell below wall street estimates. dr. j? >> a huge outperformance out of this stock, judge. it's one of the reasons, like i said, the iwm or the small caps had been outperforming. and now, today, they are -- they offer us the guidance that's pretty weak. people hit the stock pretty hard, as you would expect. >> it's been for some an occult stock. >> yeah, absolutely. health records, making them more accessible and all the rest, athena is in the right spots right now. but nonetheless, people were taking profits, to stephanie and murph's points, getting out of the way of the sell-off here, and now, i think, deutsche comes out and defends it this morning. i'll be surprised if it doesn't perhaps test right around 115 or so, judge, $115 a share, but that's not to say it can't just stop, because it did on a dame th -- a dime, at 122 this morning. >> and suspending the trade
until further notice to preserve gold prices. to preserve their balance sheet. anthony? >> i've always been cautious on gold. at the end of the day, it's not clear it's giving people what they want. and if the fed is tapering, moving in the direction of a stronger economy, you'll see a stronger dollar, and there'll be more problems for names like this. i'd be super cautious here. >> quickly on gold, it's down, again. taper fears. 1,230 is right around where gold is hanging out. a low? that's a low? >> again, we talked yesterday with mr. rule, and we were saying don't you think you'll see the flush to the downside. you're seeing some of that today. i still think the flush in gold carries you to around 1,180, judge, and then you buy it. >> doc, when you see the flush, you'll be buying. >> i will be, yes. i do think there's a point here, judge, where the bad news is out for gold, and you can buy it, that'll be about where my level is, below 1,200. >> talking about oracle, daving a dive after receiving two downgrades, rbc downgrading to
sector perform to outperform. steph? >> i don't think anybody trusts this management. they've missed the last three out of the five quarters, and they report next week. and i think people want to get out of the way, because it's rallied 13% from the june lows. it's only up 1% year to date, and not very expensive 11 times earnings. but it's a management credibility issue. i'd be much rather buying this at 30 or below. >> hello? larry ellison is on line 2. them fightin' words. >> well, the results speak for themselves, right? they've not had very good reports in the last three out of the five quarters, and they lowered the guidance, and they couldn't beat the guidance they gave. i think they're not positioned as well in the software space. they have to make more acquisitions, which they will, they have tons of cash, not expensive, but i'm not chasing it up here. >> someone here has defended it before. >> down around $30, i was going to say, first of all, stephanie won't back down from larry ellison, that's for certain. i would love to see oracle sell
off around the earnings, around 30, because it gets so easy from there. you get the 33, $34 number. >> dominic chu has a "market flash." >> how about in honor of the biggest hotel ipo in history, hilton shares, yeah, they're up about 7%, 8% in the market off their session highs. but we wanted to take you and all of the guys there through some of the other big leisure and travel ipos over the past couple of years. you think about some of the big names, right? we talk about this norwegian cruise lines. earlier this year, in january, they priced their ipo -- they're up 71% since that ipo, just in january. also extended stay america, another hotel chain up 23%, in just a month, and then there's caesars entertainment from last year, february of last year, those shares have more than doubled from their $9 ipo price. so again, the travel and leisure names maybe say something about the consumer expectations for an improving economy if they're going out and traveling and spending the dollars. back over to you. >> dr. j, you told us you would
be a buyer of hilton. >> i was, and i did, and with our clients, they're in this one, knock on wood, thank you very much. it's a nice pop here, judge. it's up 8% right now. i think it continues to work higher. they only brought about $2 billion of the company out, and it's a $19 billion number. so obviously, at some point in the future that could weigh on it when they're talking about bringing the rest of the shares to the market. but right now, i think it's tightly held and it will move higher. >> wouldn't you call that sort of one-day pop, at least thus far, a little disappointing? just relative to what we've seen from the other ipos. the thing opened sat 21.30. it's at 21.60. >> you don't want to take it off the table like facebook did at 38. but you don't want to bring your stock out at 26 and have it pop to 45, because even though that's -- >> i mean, you price it at 20, you open at 21.30, you don't want it sitting at 21.60, do you? >> well, like you say, it's working its way higher, and this is still, it's 135 million shares.
>> it gives people an opportunity to get in and build a position, if it was 25, 26, they may not -- >> what about other names? wyndham, mariotte. >> i like wyndham, and hilton. >> i like hilton. the international pipeline is what's most exciting, and that's not priced in. shares of lululemon taking a big hit today, but two traders on the desk are buying it anyway. should you? and it's an age-old rivalry with fans who passionately defend their favorite -- coke versus pepsi. buffalo wild rings is changing teams, booting coke in favor of pepsi. which will go better with the portfolio? we'll debate that and much more just ahead. [ bagpipes and drums playing over ]
welcome back. lululemon under pressure after the company issued a cautious outlook for the critical holiday shopping season. let's get a realtime trade from dr. j and mike murphy. you guys like what you saw today, because no one else did? >> no, i like the value that i'm getting down here, judge. with the new guy coming in, we talked with shaun white yesterday. this is the guy that came in from burton, the snowboard place, in other words, hipster stuff.
he was also at louis vuitton and did a fabulous job there. i think he'll do a fabulous job for lulu. >> so you bought the stock? >> i bought the stock and sold puts today. i hope to build a position. i think this might be a longer-term trade for me. normally, my trades are six days to ten days. i think i'll be in this one for three months, and i like the upside of the stock. >> murph, what did you see? >> lulu is a name i've talked about a lot on the shot. it's a name i've owned a lot in the past. this is a quality name. i'm going to get flack for this, but i wear their stuff. and their product is very good. both women love it, men are going to come around into it, and i think the call today was really as add as it could get for the company. if you look at lulu on the chart, you'll see it's had four, five major pullbacks of roughly 10% over the course of the last year. and if you bought the pullbacks, you've gotten back towards the $70 level every single time. i bought the stock at just over $61 this morning. i'm holding it, i will buy more
if it goes lower, but this is a name i think will easily get back into the 70s. just a matter of time until they get a couple of things righted. >> the next guest began ringing the alarm on the yoga wear quality controls two years ago, and liz dunn is the consumer analyst at mccleary, welcome back. >> hi, good to see you. >> what do you make of the argument from the two guys on the desk who bought the stock on the dip? >> it is a quality name. i think today's comp guidance was very concerning, because it points to the fact that some of the p.r. issues have had an impact on sales. and now, it's about how quickly they can come back from that. people don't pay 30 times for stocks that are comping flat. >> was this a -- these guys seem to be thinking this could be a kitchen sink kind of a quarter. a new ceo coming in, and you get everything out there. is that how we should read it? >> i'm not sure. it sounds -- it sounds, from
what they said on the conference call, they're comping flat now. they've seen traffic, you know, decline, or certainly pull back from what it had been trending. and they're saying part of it's macro, but part it is the p.r. issue. so i think it is sort of resetting the bar a little bit, and laurent can come in and perhaps change the trajectory. i certainly like the hire. but today's news was very disappointing to me. >> liz, when you look back, i'm one of the guys who bought the stock this morning, when you look back at lulu, you had the see-through pants issue, before that you had something with the seaweed in the clothes issue, and the company is not new to controversy. however, it seems to me, anyway, that the loyalists, if you're a lulu person, they haven't shaken any of those loyalists out there. people are still going out and buying the clothes, and that's part of the thesis for why i'm long the stock. >> yeah, i certainly think they can come back from this. listen, i spent $350 there, you know, last week. but i didn't buy any pants.
[ laughter ] i think that -- >> did you buy shirts like mike's? >> i was mostly focused on some of the seasonal items, which they said, you know, on the call were sort of hot-selling. and they're selling out of. but i think they can come back from it. but the consumer certainly noticed all of the challenges they've had, some of the, you know, poorly chosen statements that they've made, and i think the consumer's waiting to see how they respond. >> some that we've talked about, you know, about expectations of the holiday shopping season and beyond, have raised flags about department stores, yet nordstrom is the top pick. can you tell us why? >> yeah, i mean, i think the holiday shopping season is very promotional. nordstrom's tends to operate a little bit above that fray. it's not really a -- mostly about the holiday i like it. i like their spending on e-commerce initiative, omni channel initiatives, the best in claes, and i think they're transforming the business in a direction that others are not.
>> liz, are we ever going to see positive operating leverage from nordstrom? >> i think we'll see it. i think -- >> like in the next year? >> -- it's not -- not to see that over the next couple of years, because they're planning on a two to four comp. we'll see a better than two to four comp, and i think above those levels you will see operating leverage. >> liz, good to have you on. thank you so much. >> thanks for having me. >> liz dunn. we know where the traders stand on lulu, but which retail stocks are their favorite for the holiday season? we'll go around the horn and get trade updates and sufficient. anthony, you're up first. >> i want to stick with macy's, willing to pay up for the quality. also the retail intelligence suggests they're doing better this year. great management team, very strong balance sheet, and so, macy's is my pick. >> all right, dr. j? >> michael kors, k-o-r-s, i like the way they've performed. and i think they'll continue to perform. this is one of the names, like i
say, that i think works higher. >> stephanie link? >> i have coach, and i'm not going to change. i really think this is a 2014 story. >> you can change if you want. >> no, no, looking at nike down $5 from its high. so i might switch. but i still think there's upside -- this is a 2014 story because of the new management. the new management is not even in, and the new products aren't in until the spring, so we are some time. i like the valuation gap to kors, and that's why i like that name. >> murph? >> underarmour was my pick, and i still like them. however, with the move down, and the stock's not a dog, i would put lulu in there over underarmour. well, everyone has a favorite, coke or pepsi. one restaurant is making a bold move. the debaters debate the new twist in an old debate. and nat gas is rallying, too. find out how to play it next.
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>>. >> pepsi is going to replace coca-cola at buffalo wild wings. let's debate it. stephanie link is the coca-cola bull. mike murphy the pepsi bull. >> i like coke, they have powerhouse brands, and they're expanding through m&a, and internally, the healthier drinks, which are certainly the trend. they've got a global distribution, kind of state-of-the-art, nobody does it better. the real reason i like this story is it has international exposure, more so than pepsi. i'm of the belief you'll see better growth around the world. and these guys have 66% of the sales internationally, 80% of
the operating profits, so it won't take much for them to start to see a reversal, i think, in some of the earnings trends and some of the volume trends, and the stock has lagged by 10 percentage points to pepsi. and expectations are low. i think everybody loves pepsi, everybody hates coke, and i like that risk/reward. >> pepsi is better and one of the reasons is the exposure to north america. the north american growth for 2014 has a very strong opportunity of being better than the emerging markets growth. that's not the main market. we know carbonated beverage sales are down. they may never come back. pepsi has 22 brands in the snack food division, and that's an area that's growing a lot higher than the carbonated that's losing steam, the snack business is picking up steam. and it's a higher margin business. that to me is the main differentiator between coke and pepsi. >> and the noncarbonated drink area is where i'm focused on in terms of growth. [ buzzer ] they invested $4 billion in
china in the healthy fruit, vegetable, water drink areas. [ buzzer ] i hear the buzzer. >> there you go. twice. >> i'm with you on the healthy drinks. >> you want another buzzer? is that what you're after? dr. j, what's your beverage of choice? >> errr! the stock of choice is pepsi because of the snacks. because of the snacks, i have to go with pepsi. i think steph made a great argument, but -- >> and i think 17 times forward estimates, snacks is priced in. >> well, it might be, and like i say, that's why people keep coming back to pepsi. >> anthony? >> stick with stephanie on this. you focus on companies that are working in an extremely focused manner, and this is not really a trading stock. this is something more for the 401(k). both are great names, but i like coke. >> let's settle it with you. tell us who you think won. tweet us @cnbcfastmoney use #ko or #pep.
after hitting a fresh seven-month high, let's check on the gold with jackie deangelis. >> that's exactly right. this morning, natural gas hit the second-highest level of the year, but then it cooled off following that 1030 inventory report. brian stutland, is the big rally in nat gas finally over? we do have cooler temperatures and more winter storms coming? >> yeah, the temperatures have been absolutely frigid, especially here in chicago over the last few days. i can't remember the last time it's been this cold for this long this early in the winter. it's not even officially winter. you have to be careful. nat gas has had a big run. it's traded over the 200-day moving ash rage ining average, looking for the pullback, a huge breakout at the 390 level, a head and shoulders level. i'm a buyer but not up at the levels. looking for a pullback. if the weather abates a little bit around the january 1 time frame, you get a pullback. >> it looks like brian is saying
we've come too far, too fast. would you be a buyer at these levels? >> i am a buyer at these levels. we're above the 50 day, 100 day, 200-day moving average, and the momentum, the traders are looking for a higher close. the market is swinging percentagewise like it hasn't in months. i think if we can get back above the top part of the range today, we actually go higher. there's a few indicators that you want to look at, the relative strengthening index, the short-term overbought, agree with stutland, but a buyer on the dip. >> okay. we'll have more on nat gas in the live show, and also talking to black rock's chief investment strategist russ, a surprising take on what the market will do next year. tune in 1:00 p.m. eastern, futuresnow.cnbc.com. >> all right. we'll be there. mike murphy, trade nat gas. >> the best way is play is cabot oil and gas, and buying the stock on 15% pullback on recent highs and it's done great over the last three years. you can buy it at the $36 level and look for it to take out old
highs. >> stephanie link, is there a name? >> i like southwest energy. it always trades lockstep with nat gas prices, and it's a great company. it could be a takeout candidate, as well. >> i like devin energy, a big eagleford play, taking a bunch of that from geosouthern, i believe, so i like dvn a lot in this space. it's been a steady climber. not like a 24% or 23% like the s&p 500, but it's steady, up about 14%, 15%. >> all right. we're going to take a quick break, but we're certainly watching what's happening down on wall street today. the dow jones industrials average, there it is, just coming off the lows of the day, but down 125 points. we're looking at the second-straight triple-digit decline. robert on the newsdesk telling me that now the dow and s&p are flirting with the worst three-day losing streak in nearly four months. we'll go down to the floor of the new york stock exchange when we come back to find out what the pulse is down there, what the traders are talking about, where they think this thing
could go from here. we'll talk more about the najarian brothers, they saw something coming. and facebook is being added to the s&p 500. after the break, we'll find out why you may not be able to avoid investing in it even if you wanted to. in addition to facebook, lots of movement in the social space. up next, we'll find out what the next big thing will be from an executive at salesforce, who also happened to have found buddy media. he was an early investor in some of the biggest names in the space, as well. that and much more is just ahead. so ally bank has a raise your rate cd
>>. >> very excited about tomorrow, for the tradesetrades' top pick. we'll be talking to some of the biggest names, including that rula, jamie dinan of york capital, and leon cooperman, who all of you know, and certainly many, many more big investors throughout the week. we just told you stocks are selling off, sitting near session lows. let's go down to the floor of the new york stock exchange to bob pisani. bob, we're potentially looking at the worst three-day stretch in four months. >> the dow is down, almost 2% on the weeker and we haven't had a good die, one good day in two weeks, and that was friday on the jobs report. other than that, this whole week, we drift lower into the middle of the day.
the volume is not particularly heavy. but everybody knows what the problem is. look at the 10-year yield moving towards 2.9%. we got very, very close there just a short while ago, and that's what's putting pressure on the market. interest rate sensitive stocks, all very predictable as the 10-year moved up, all on the downside. reits have been hit hard all year. emerging markets are down about 1%, the eem. the consumer staple stocks, paying dividends, also on the weak side. that's probably the weakest group we're seeing out there, including proctor & gamble. scott, it's a very contradictory market. friday, nobody had any problem with the better economic news, on the jobs report. the 10-year didn't move. retail sales today excellent, even autos we had growth, and today, they have a problem with it. that's what kind of makes people uncertain about who how to read the economic data. >> maybe it isn't about the taper, then. maybe it's trimming gains from a great year. >> yeah, it certainly has been a very good year. we've seen the interest rate sensitive sectors already pared
back, but with the 25% gain in the s&p 500, i think that's certainly a reasonable assumption. nobody expects a lot of news out in the next two weeks. the only thing that's of concern is next week with the federal reserve meeting, and i think that's the big thing that's got everybody a little edgy right now. >> hey, bob, thank you so much. >> okay. >> mike, you noticed the financials. you're watching them closely there. >> yeah, financials. we talked about citi earlier around the $52 level and trading just above 50 now, at $50.33. they look like they could be going lower. and one of the reasons, you see t hilton ipo, the secondaries, a lot of money moving out of holdings with gains into some of the new deals. >> the najarians strike again. the resident stock swami noticed call option volume, and here's what he said. >> facebook unusual activity, rolled up from the 45s to the 50s in january. watch this one, judge. >> you were watching it, we should have been watching it
right along with you. facebook getting a boost today on news it will be added to the s&p 500, and also instagram announcing a new messaging service, and jon fortt joins us from new york city. jon? >> reporter: yeah, the s&p news and the instagram news, investors seemed to like it. the stock is up better than 3.5% at this point. here's the news on instagram. with instagram direct, this new feature, borrows the mentality from the snapchats and the apps out there, you'll be able to send a message within instagram to up to 15 people, not necessarily to the entire world. you'll be able to choose only people who follow you, will be able to send you messages, if somebody sends you a message and they don't follow you, you can pick whether to block them entirely or begin to connect with that person. now, if you take a look, of course, we realize that facebook spurned a -- facebook offered $3 billion for snapchat, and
snapchat spurned that. looking at how they stack up. snapchat has 400 million snaps a day, instagram has about 150 million users, and 50 million photos posted a day. so there's clearly some sort of audience for these individual conversations that involve picture messaging, and if facebook wants to keep that younger demographic engaged with the main project, the main product, facebook is not quite doing, maybe adding this kind of a feature to instagram is the way to do that, guys. >> all right, jon fortt, thank you so much. snapchat revealing a $50 million investment from the hedge fund, big money flowing into the social space, and today we're on the hunt for the next big idea. our next guest successfully founded and sold three internet companies. joining us is mike lazaro, the founder of buddy media, and happens to be the chief marketing officer for salesforce.com. welcome. good to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> what do you make of the story we just saw, instagram and
snapchat, going head to head, and everything else that's going on in social right now. >> well, instagram is an incredible platform, 150 million people making photos, beautiful, sharing with the world, snapchat now selling for $3 billion, crazy in my game, it seems like a lot of money, especially when you can barely drink for the guys who started it. so that kind of amazed me. there's a big difference between starting a company that engages consumers and starting a company that really scales their revenue. what i do know is every company is trying to get closer to their customers. their customers are on these social platforms, just talking to john before about how we're using the social platforms, so every company has to figure out, how do i engage with people who use these platforms. >> are you suggesting that they turned down the $3 billion deal that there's a bubble that -- we've just gotten out of control here in some of the social stocks, and the way that these companies are being valued? >> if you look at twitter and facebook and even instagram, you
know, before it sold, these are companies and linkedin, that have huge network effects, and their network effects that started years ago and only get more valuable as more people come into the ecosystem. and so, i think that what we're seeing is not just product companies, but platform companies. companies that are creating platforms for the world to build on top of. and it's that value that they're bringing, which is, you know, what you're investing in. and i've been very long all of these companies, both as private companies and as public companies. i think that now's the time that you're going to see a shift in every industry just happens to be happening in media and technology first. >> are you an investor in twitter, for example? i mean, what's your -- what's your idea of what the business model really is, how wall street seems to have adapted it, or embraced it, i should say. >> so the business model of twitter is very simple. they've aggravated a huge audience, hundreds of millions
of people, stuck on the platform all day, right? we're addicted to our devices, we go to sleep with our devices, wake up with two devices and the devices are how we live. and so, because of that, and because you have to break through as a brand advertiser, you're going to see massive dollars shift from tv and radio and traditional media into these platforms, and the platforms that are there waiting with buckets are facebook and twitter and google and apple and companies that maybe weren't ad companies in the past. amazon and samsung that have now direct connections with billions of people globally. >> at salesforce, social media and sort of helping companies with the way they're advertising on social media is kind of at the core of what you guys are doing when -- in terms of their markets, which plays obviously into the role as the chief marketing officer. >> absolutely. >> at salesforce. tell us about that. >> we believe strongly that everything is moving to the cloud. this is where it started, and then social, and now mobile. and we live with these devices.
you know, as i said, in their hands. and because of that, you have to market and produce content in totally different way as a company. if you want to break through, it's about how good is your content? do you have a view of your customer that is teed up, it's unique, that is taking all of the data and unifying it? are you talking to a customer as a customer? what we realize is behind every app download is a person. there's a person there, if you're delta air lines and you create an app. there's a person there if you're philips and you have a new connected toothbrush, you know, that's wi-fi-enabled, you can manage through your app -- [ laughter ] -- there's a person there, and what we're providing is the number-one crm company and the leader in sales, service and marketing, is this one-to-one customer platform for our companies. >> is there somebody not doing it well right now that sort of you're focused on as, this is the company that we need to be focused on more heavily for what they're not doing right? >> well, there are many companies that aren't doing this well.
and when i say doing it well, i mean putting the customer at the center. many companies pivot toward shareholders, pivot toward their products, pivot toward all of these different constituencies. you have to pivot to the customer today. you have to pivot to the customer, because we're seeing an uberization of every industry. it used to be you walked to the corner, raised your hand and tried to get a cab, right? now, you press a button and it comes to you. every industry is going through that. >> mike, good to see you. thank you for coming in. >> great to see you. >> mike lazaro. taper is back on the table, so how will the emerging market plays being impacted? we'll find out from gemma godfrey. right now, the health care stocks, staples, leading the way down. more "fast half" is straight ahead. there's a saying around here,
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coming up on "power lunch," it's another big down day, of course, but a big up day for ipos. six companies going public. the biggest, of course, hilton hotels, and we'll tell you how to play that. plus, the power retail panel. who wins and who loses this holiday season? and the one big retail comeback stock and story for 2014. and the list that every executive in the c suite fears the most, the worst ceos of 2013. all of that straight ahead. back to you, scottie. >> skeue, thanks so much. let's go back to the floor to see what the traders are watching at the cme, nyse, and
what's go going on at the imex? >> they told me never to sell a draw in crude oil market, and everybody is thinking, what do you think? i think prices will rise. a good pullback to $95 would be a great area to get in. they talk about world oil demand going up next year, a million barrels a day, and opec's under 30 million barrels production a day. so inventory is driving. it will be a bullish market et issing up -- setting up for early 2014. >> the buzz at the cme? >> the interest rates are out of sight. the market has been pricing in tapering since june. i'll join the chorus of people, but i'll be joining them in a louder shirt, it goes to 104.24 in the short term, 105.11 before the tapering starts. >> joe greco, is this about the taper? is that what the three-day sell-off is about? >> it seems like that's the
case, the familiar tune in the last few months. taper talk is back on for next week and everybody is watching the tote board to see what the odds are. besides that, traders are involved in the ipos today, and just like everyone trying to find the underperforming stocks that they can buy into year end, they're also looking at the tight deals that are priced and hopefully get a couple of winners and scrape a dollar or two off of them on their ipo. >> all right, ira, bob, the birthday boy, joe, be good. we'll talk to you soon. >> see ya. >> thank you. coming up, gemma godfrey has ideas about emerging markets. ♪ ♪ ♪ i wanna spread a little love this year ♪ ♪ i wanna spread a little love and cheer ♪ [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- provocative design and exacting precision come together in one powerful package
welcome back. u.s. stocks falling for a third straight day on fears the fed could start cutting back its stimulus program next week. the effect of this move could actually impact emerging markets the most. joining us now from london with more is gemma godfrey of brooks mcdonald asset management. welcome back. >> thank you very much. >> so fixated on what's going to happen here if the fed tapers next week. what do you have the ems are going to do if that happens? >> well, there are two factors that provide a level of protection for emerging markets. first of all, if we look at the fixed income market, they're starting to understand we're talking about a tapering in a winddown and not a withdrawal. which means the markets are pricing for interest rates to be in for longer and we're less likely to be a spike in bond yields. what this means is, the fed will
be more confident that it's less likely to impact growth or restrict emerging market access to capital for investing in infrastructure. in that respect, they're slightly more protect. and also on the equity side, a lot of the hot money has left left the markets because of the last time they got spooked that the fed was about to taper. >> if there's an emerging market that's the most susceptible to a pretty good hit from a taper, which one is it? >> i mean, it's hard to pick one that's most susceptible because the ones that are, let's say indonesia, it's, they've already had a significant withdrawal of hot money. what we would say the emerging markets struggling with deficits, that's the likes of turkey, et cetera. also markets like brazil where there's a lack of a catalyst could also lag like the markets. but where we're looking for instead is we've actually turned positive on india for the first time in quite a long while because the elections are coming up next year provide a positive catalyst. and a lot of positive sentiment that will come out there. and obviously in terms of china,
they're opening up for business. so there's going to be a lot of positive news that's coming out of an area that's significantly underperformed so far. >> what do you make as you view of how the u.s. market has traded these last few days and how that sets up between now and the end of the year if we're going to get this so-called santa claus rally or not and whether the taper is priced in either the equity or bond market? >> yeah, because it's very hard to underestimate either the will for markets to grind higher or for investors to close out their positions. and try and lock in substantial profits that they've earned towards the end of the year. so they're going to be more susceptible to news flow and to reacting far heavier to news flow because obviously investors have already closed out and volumes may be lower. but in terms of the fed tapering, it's looking more likely in terms of there being less of effect in fixed income. however, we're in the midst of holiday season, holiday spending. and there's a concern that the fourth quarter may have restrained spending because of
the inventory buildup in the previous quarter. and with that lack of clarity, the fed's more likely to wait and actually see what the data's tally going to look like in that respect as well. again, we need more clarity. and investors may decide instead to lock in these profits and put their book to bed. >> gemma, we'll see you next week. >> thank you very much. >> gemma godfrey in london. pops & drops now. southwest airlines, anthony is a pop today. >> bank america recommended in the stock is up a little over 4%. i would stay away from this as the industry is consolidating, there will be more pricing uncertainty so i would be cautious here. >> steph, sienna. >> yes, down 8%. they missed by 8 cents. it was really actually a better revenue number that has us buying the stock. the reason they missed was margins came in below plan. it was tied to compensation costs being higher because orders were better than expected. >> vera bradley, murph, a pop? >> yep. so vera bradley came out with
earnings and they actually had decent numbers, but they missed on their guidance was weaker than the street expected. it was an interesting setup. the stock sold off about 5% early morning and then rallied. it's now up 2% on the day. >> netflix stock with a pop. >> stock opened $3.63 or thereabouts and kept working its way higher throughout the day. it's almost of the highs of the day right here, up about 1.6%, fighting the tape real hard. >> was it coke or pepsi? we'll find out what you thought after this break and also give you final trades. a day of red on the board down on the street. there's the dow down 111. we're back after this. i have low testosterone. there, i said it. see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive, but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood tests... showed it was low t.
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[ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. well, we had this debate over pepsi and coke, murphy, the bull on pepsi won, according to the people. time now for "final trades." dr. j, on the heels of that verdict, what is your pick? >> i've got a land driller, neighbors, nbr. >> stephanie. >> general electric. >> mr. murphy.
>> sticking with lulu. >> anthony. >> cisco, it's ugly but very cheap. >> indeed. the markets aren't that pretty today either. right now the dow jones industrial average, well, there's the s&p, down about 0.5. there's the dow, off the lowest levels, but we are looking at potentially the worst three-day selloff in four months. that's it for us. "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> indeed it does. and we start with an ipo pazoozza. a full six companies are going public, but will investors be rewarded? how the other ipos have fared as well. it has been called the fed dream team, janet yellen and stanley fisher as the next fed vice chairman. it has economists very excited, but who is mr. fisher? we're going to talk about that and also what he might mean for the markets. all of that is straight ahead. plus, no pressure