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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 23, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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i don't know. we have got to hop, thanks so much. >> got to hop. >> we will hop in our new sneaks. melissa, what are you cooking. >> what do you think when i say big bird, oscar the grouch and elmo. >> sesame street. >> exactly. and there are lessons that wall street can learn from sesame street. what could we possibly have in common with sesame street? >> i would expect josh to be able to draw the parallel. over to you guys. >> fast money starts right now. live in new york city's time square, here's tonight's line-up. time to sell the news. the deal we have talked about for months. should you be getting out of the stock? social search, facebook shares popping on its first day of the s&p 500. there is another media stock that caught our trader's attention today. time is running out to buy the last minute christmas gifts.
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let's get straight to the top story. the tech giant announcing a long awaited deal that would bring iphones to the carrier beginning on january 17th. is this the sell the news we have been looking for? >> no. and i have been bearish but when you look at the audience or the market that could buy this, it's 181 subscribers that are 3g or better. i thought it closed very well and 5:75 was the high we hit on december 5. when you think about the first
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quarter, this is where -- the chinese new year? that is what this whole release is geared towards. it's geared towards the year of the horse and i do believe it's going to help that quarter. that's going to be back to back very strong quarters. >> i don't think they say that in china. >> how do you say that in chinese. >> i have no idea what the translation would be. the significance of december 5, which is the day after december 4. >> very good. >> i know and i realized -- >> gidy up. >> idiotic. but december 4 was the day the wall street journal ran the article saying there was an impending deal. the 52 week high on the stock here, that's why we're pointing this out as a level to replam on the news. >> yeah. i'm not sure about the dates. . the bigger picture is pretty straightforward. more earnings power than they had yesterday.
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it's selling for 11.5 times. technically the stock is above the 20. let it trade higher. the stock's got a lot of momentum and the fundament a als for the stock to be okay if the market fulls back. it's only up 5% on the year. not like this is a run away freight train. it's done very little. >> i have a question. tim brings up a good point. how many people in china can afford to buy an iphone? >> one in seven. >> those who can truly afford it? but again, 181 in 3g or better. i think this is a case where it's only 3 to five% accretion this year. >> how do you trade the stock? i think we have done a decent job with it. we said it would probably trade
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down to 5:25. that's where it would bounce up to after the drop off. that's the lev it needs to capture. . i think we're in this range, sort of 5:50 to 5.75. oi still think you have to feel good about it. this is the number one choice, where people are buying the products from. i think retail people think that you have to be a buyer of the stock. you guys did that little spot in the mall. i think this is one that really bears out.
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>> why are they going to buy it? because they are putting it under their tree? >> when they go out and shop for their kids they will be loaded up with apple pruks. they will see apple stores that are jam packed. >> we could have made the same argument on the trip down from seven whatever down we could have said the same thing. great products, not a good stock. >> you could have but people were oversaturated. you had a lot of people who bought the 7.02 top and they were dumping their stock because the retail buys way late. >> tell me why it's different? >> i don't know. the news that came out on wednesday of last week. guess what? stock has traded really well. the same story a week prior to that we talked about that being a flush in that stock.
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we talked about the stock and guess what? it's on its way. >> i just want to follow up on that because this is very important. in addition, since then we have gotten a huge buy back. an activist in the stock who will not walk away until the share price is higher. they have launched the iphone 5s, a smash hit on the tablet and new minitablet. i don't think the estimates accurately reflect the timing. >> you think they will actually beat this quarter? your point is they missed the last two quarters in a row. >> they were able to beat and i think they will continue to do that going forward. estimates were way carried away and they have a three quarter lab. very hard to beat when you don't have any new. >> i think the march quarter is
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what you get excited about. you can piece a holiday season where they have overcome some supply bottleneck issues on the mi mini. not as obviously china mobile which has big issues. i think there will be subsidies. you look at the monetization, and we will chat about it over here. the about for these guys to get the digital ad space, this is exactly what you want to buy. >> and season alty of apple is january is not a great month. you're going to get a mored a venn teenageous price in january. >> china mobile has held 52 a
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bunch of times. i think the trade, i think the risk reward on the long side is trading 52.5 now. it's no question. i think if you want to trade it, 52 is your boegy. >> shanghai kmos it breaking a nine day losing streak today. could problems in china be the next big risk to this rally here in the united states? joining us now is dennis gartman, et tore of the gartman letter. happy holidays to you. >> always good to be seen. >> why are you so worried about china? is it because of the liquidity crunch that we're seeing over there? if there is something i am concerned about. it is china. usually these problems just disappear after the turn of the year but if you have to be concerned about something, be
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concerned about the fact that short term rates in china have risen several hundred basis points. it's happened in the past and it will happen again. it may just simply disappear. they almost always do. i'm also concerned about china and japan putting too many boats near each other as they pay attention to the islands. it's on my radar screen and i think people have to pay attention to it. >> we have seen spikes like this in china before. china has not been a major head wind. so in 2014 where i think we will get a lot more of the same out of u.s. and europe, why is -- are you expecting a major credit pop? >> no. i'm not expecting a major -- a major dislocation.
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the fact that we have had this problem in the past week and a half, its crept off of page 32 to make it to page three and 4. it probably won't make it to page one but it's something to pay attention to. that's my job is to read page 6 36. >> the fact that you like coal so you're investing in a bet on global growth and specifically growth based on china growth tells us that there is no fear that china is going to become a bigger problem. >> it will be a benign resolution. but you have to, you know, our job is to be prepared for those things that come out of the wood
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work and surprise you. this was if one surprise that i think could happen. i'm very -- i like very simple things. i like coal. i like alum numb and steel and railroads and ships. i like ball bearings. i like the simplest things that are incumbent. >> i know you don't like to comment on individual stocks. i won't make you comment here. clearly you watch that. here is a stock that is finally getting out of its own way. >> it's one of the reasons i have been bullish of aluminum. it's my second largest position in my own retirement fund. i own a fair amount. i don't like to talk about it but i do. i have written some ten calls that expire next week.
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it is one of the reasons that i like aluminum. pay attention to what's going on there. >> good to see you. merry christmas. news alert here on tesla. morg morgan? >> thanks. so national highway traffic safety administration reaffirming its five-star rating for the 2014 tesla model s. we're seeing the stock move up slightly on this news. this is completely separate from the recent investigations the company has seen into recent fire int dens that is is a separate investigation. five star -- five star ratings across all categories. >> thanks a lot for that. crunch time for retailers this holiday season. you know what? guy and i did our own channel checking to see which retailers could get a last minute pop this christmas. later on they say you never
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forget your first day in the s&p 500. facebook picking up steam again today but there is another social media stock that is stealing its thunder. lots more straight ahead. and ah, so you can see like right here i can just... you know, check my policy here, add a car, ah speak to customer service, check on a know, all with the ah, tap of my geico app. oh, that's so cool. well, i would disagree with you but, ah, that would make me a liar. no dude, you're on the jumbotron! whoa. ah...yeah, pretty much walked into that one. geico anywhere anytime. just a tap away on the geico app.
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>> tomorrow as you all know is the very last shopping day before christmas. remember we were at the mall last week? we enjoyed being at the mall so much that guy decided to check out the holiday shopping scene ourselves. take a look. >> where do you want to go first? >> we should go to macy's. >> macy's? see, stop right there. this is the bag for you. >> you try it. >> all right. so we took care of you. what about me? me? >> what do you smell? that's nice. >> oh, yeah. >> look at all the stuff you bought. >> exhausting shopping here. you hungry? >> could you bring us like a cheesecake sampler? >> i can bring you three of my
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best. >> perfect. >> i saw a tesla showroom on the way in. >> think we can do a test drive? >> why not. >> can you show us this thing? what does it do? give us the gizmos, the bells and whistles. >> can we take it for a test drive right now? >> absolutely. >> can i get help out of here. >> who is getting out of here first? >> me. >> if we're going together i'm driving the car so hop in the passenger seat there party girl. >> maybe we shouldn't go back. we will just go back to cnbc and bring this car. >> did you know there was a camera there? the whole day. >> what a shock. >> non-stop all night long. >> the music took me back. >> it was awesome.
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>> it was a lot of fun seeing who was shopping at the mall. bill is the chief operating officer who is closely monitoring last minute shopping. >> it's a short season like we have all said. it's been up and down but will end up probably be up two, three percent as predicted if i had to guess retailers may make up
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extra ground. >> i feel like everybody has sent out 40, 50, 60% off. it's insane this year. >> it does, it starts to lose its effect, no question. a lot of this is planned. not all of it is planned. you will see some impact on margins. macy's has done particularly well. they seem to be showing a lot of strength. apparently pennies, i was on the air before they announce. >> one of the most plagued mall retailers is abercrombie. it seems like there is no bottom to the story. both the stock and the fundamentals. >> the brand has been a great
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brand and mike jeffries really built the brand. he really took the ralph lauren line and found a way to mainstream it across america. the brand is challenged in a couple of ways. they are all hurt. they are logo based. and part of it is we're not in a traditional college fashion mode. >> can that come back? >> it always comes back. everything comes and goes. but the fast fashion is not change i changing with the emphasis on wearable fashion that can be thrown out. and i think logo will again come back. there is still a brand with the
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three as if yo go around and ask the teens. >> if you see discounting up 13% do you start to get it on the back end with rents? do you see people want to negotiate with price per square foot because they're getting squeezed? >> my old man likes to say there's always a good reason not to pay rent as long as he's been around. at the end of the day, sales have been great. clearly margins have been hurt, look how well gap is doing. look at vicky's. it's easy to focus on the particular industry or segment that seems to be more challenged but you have got to look against
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the whole mall and all the different categories and say how is it going to impact us? >> there was a tragic shooting that happened at the shorthills mall. are we in an era where security will be permanently increased? have you increased security in light of that shooting? will it be an issue? >> we have great security. these were professional crooks. this is something that could have happened absolutely anywhere. we have increased security in light of what has happened but having said that we have great security. we had two policemen on site when this happened as well as our security force. they caught them right away. apparently based on the surveillance we had. but clearly it's very important that that message go out that they didn't get away with this.
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>> bill, thanks. >> they had a fantastic november. these guys come through. retail stocks come through with the best valuation relative to its size. >> coming up neck, the amazon 400 club. what could be the next big catalyst for the online retail giant? plus, just when grasso thought he was out he got pulled back in. >> fast money means trading. everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night.
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>> time to hit today's top trades. first up, the ecommerce trade that just won't quit. amazon joins a small and selective club that has surpassed the $400 mark, price line, google a long time ago, mastercard and chipotle. >> there is a such thing as a good company that doesn't have a good stock to be invested in right now. amazon is amazing. i think they have changed the whole world but i can't buy this thing at 400. the golden rule is that nos a sit is so good that you should invest irrespective of the price paid and i think that applies here very well. the best thing is compared to twitter it's a value stock.
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rr you will con seed that most have made fortunes? >> i guess the question i ask is the same thing. their year-over-year internet sales are up. that's not fair for facebook but you can almost make the same call. >> it's an amazing stock. it's an amazing stock. >> but wait a minute. it's not quite as severe, number one. number two, the other two have not really begun to monetize where as amazon has been growing revenue like this for 15 years straight. it's a great company and great to witness it from afar. you have to think it's going to 500 in order to be taken this much risk at a minimum. do you think it will? be my guest. >> next up, darden restaurant is facing a call for more dramatic
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break up from activist investor star board. shares are rallying on the news today. >> you definitely don't want to rush into this one just yet. you have to look at it. 40% of its revenue is derived from olive garden and olive garden has been coming back in here. for me, i would wait. you have to go with capital grill is where it gets a lot of its profits, where the growth is. i would wait on this one. wait until it pulls back more. >> we were out at the palisades, specifically about darden. i'm with steve. i don't think you rush into this one. some shorts got squeezed. i think it has got to close into 58. >> i think the rational is kind of weak. they are basically basing this on the volatility of the stock price. i think they want a higher
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demographic customer but i don't think that's going to happen. >> facebook making its big boy debut. will the street continue to like the social play in 2014? plus counting sheeps and the grouch. josh brown's got the 411 on why wall street is more similar to sesame street than you may think. >> you look better with the longer hair. ♪ mine was earned orbiting the moon in 1971.
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>> welcome back to fast. teflon twitter at it again, surging to a fresh high. grasso stepped in and made our trade of the day. walk us through. >> when every it was, i called in and said this was the day i got flushed out of it. i said i will buy it back but i could rather buy it on momentum. this morning came out extremely strong. i said i'm not going to be a hero and wait.
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i don't have a full position. i just don't see a reason to be getting out of it. so guys want to cover it. >> it's a momo trade. >> let's bring in an analyst from suntrust. >> i'm just wondering what are you thoughts? clearly it's a valuation call. >> when it cost to last monday
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it had gotten up to 50% with no real news. >> so in terms of today's movement, it was very curious. and they're not selling. other guys say when this is working, just get in. it dupt matter until it matters. >> wouldn't it be smart to set expectations in such a way that they could go over them in the future rr the market is already
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run away. we're at 2 billion in revenues. we're already way higher. >> all right. in terms of face book because that was another new high, where do you stand on that one? >> it is. it's been a big quarter as far as commerce. we did our checks with our preferred marketers and they're coming back with a very strong marketer with facebook. way cheaper. about 20 times ebitda versus 300 times or so. >> it's mind boggling. how do we go to 40%? >> last quarter the cfo cautioned about that.
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people are looking for new revenue streams. new revenues for facebook. new ad units there. a -- you have themes for 2014. sensors and wherable technology. are there actual plays? this sounds fantastic but there is no pure play. we have done some analysis on google. >> i think that will be the catalyst to get people talking
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about censored networks. think of a cool pair of oakleys. that's where it's going. >> is there a cool pair? >> yeah, ya eyeah. >> but in mid 2014 there will be. glass when you wear it it's a different use. >> bob, thanks for stopping by. >> thanks for having me. >> what's your trade here? >> i thought facebook would trade down after it made the push last week. i was wrong. didn't get there. maybe now 55 is your line in the sand. >> let's talk consumer discretionary stocks? >> it has been hot.
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we saw traders start to look and maybe buy some insurance. this is a time that volatility is cheap. you buy insurance. consumer discretionary in that put to call ratio. own insurance against your stock. >> all right. so green mountain stood out to you for what reason? >> it's had a great run. 28% in the last six weeks. we saw a big trader come out. and basically, covered some of the cost by selling it out. and what they're basically doing is put iting they have about a
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managing them, moving them, making them work. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives. invested in the world. bny mellon. >> welcome back. in case you missed some of today's top moments, here is is a rapid fire recap of tonight's executive edge. >> the connection between
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consumers and brands is not as strong as it has been in year's past. if you look at the amount of advertising that there used to be, it's like a 17% decline. what the brands need to do is push their game. >> the worst recession since the 80s. now they have learned that the world is is a riskier place than they thought. >> the next big american brands are going to be starting on the line. we will wear 98% of our businesses online. >> it's kind of like a bumper car but it's got a drift bar on it so that it lifts it up and it spins freely in circles. almost a million people saw it.
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>> why is that okay? >> there are no elbow pads or knee pads. >> everyone brings you back to online. i think amazon truly reaps the benefits of all online. >> so if you want to talk about valuation it's still pricing in growth. the stock is up very quickly. >> this is a very special trade school. josh brown is going to teach us a little lesson on why wall street is very similar to sesame street, much more so than we ever thought or wanted to know. we all know that learning about numbers is a big part of sesame street.
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♪ eight is great, great, great ♪ it makes me shout hooray >> don't chase a cow. this will turn into something serious. >> people with always hunt down the statistic. it should be because the stock market is at an all time high. you can hunt down the stat that tells you 431 companies in the s&p 500 are buying back stock. >> another big theme on sesame street? shapes. >> i really like squares.
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do you like squares, bert? a square has four sides and four corners and all the corners are the same and all the sides are the same length. i really think that's neat about squares, don't you bert? >> there is a lot of searching for patterns on the street. but what that really is is guys playing with the x and y axis to make things fit that wouldn't normally fit. just as child niche the markets as it is in sesame street context. >> and we can't forget about the
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grouch. ♪ i love trash ♪ anything dirty or dingy or dusty ♪ >> plenty of grouches on wall street. >> here's the deal. there is always a reason to be in cash. euro zone break-up. twerking, obamacare, the taper, it's just like an endless litany and there's always a good reason to be in cash. there are zero roman 20 year periods starting any month of any year you want over the last 90 years during which u.s. st k stocks produced a negative return. when you're aware of that stat and what your time frame is, you have to look at things like
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syria and the taper and take them all with a grain of salt, especially when somebody tells you go to cash. >> i love how we can marry information with a picture of bert and ernie. >> and it totally wasn't distracting. >> no. they're happy. they've got their arms around each other. it's just like grasso and guy here at the break. >> it's special. >> awe. >> still to come, the tweets making today's fast money cut we trade them. first spirits of the holidays. top picks for the season is next.
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>> you tweet it we trade it. this one is for steven grasso. should i stay in and ride the wave or seek the exit. >> definitely outperform. if you have profits in this type of environment, you have really got to lock in something. you don't want to turn in paper profits to real losses. i think you might see a little january and february. i would lock in something.
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>> guy? pioneer natural resources looks very volatile? >> it doesn't look it. it is very volatile. >> you stay along this at this level. this is is a volatile name. >> last one, josh, do you like go go? >> i don't, but i don't hate it. it's got its die hard fans. they were distributing their shares to their lps. i would let this thing set up a little bit. >> i don't know. we don't have a show tomorrow. it's a half day of trading. what better way to get into the holiday spirit than sipping on
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your favorite cocktail? great to have you back on the show. >> not just with spirits but some cocktails. >> some cocktails, too? so walk us through these, these are your top picks. >> you have got cognac, bourbon, and of course a smokey scotch whiskey. we can start with the limited edition. comes at a high proof. but it's sweet. reminds you of the good times by the fireplace. and of course you have the choice between rye whiskey. >> nice. >> so that's a beautiful new brand.
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. i brought it here tonight because of the extra rum and spiciness and sweetness to it. >> that's what we need. really, if you want to go delicate, fancy, maybe slightly more civilized you go for the cogn cognac. >> or white wine spritzer. you mentioned cocktails. >> one of my favorite is the hot buttered rum. that is just luscious. >> look at that. >> that does look nice. >> you have got dark rum and you can put some honey or simple syrup. brown sugar, spices, cloves, ginger.
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>> hot buttered rum. >> he could be pitching mad dog 2020 and with that access -- >> everything sounds delicious. >> i stopped trying to get rid of it a long time ago. >> help with us the challenge here. in terms of your curse mstomers show off shots and do you think that this is telling you where the market is? >> december is the right time for this. if you have got to aspire to a great drink, this is a great time to do it. they are available right now. >> i aspire every day of the year. stay tuned. mine was earned orbiting the moon in 1971.
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