tv Fast Money CNBC March 19, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
and that's a good global benchmark. western europe has been a bright spot for them. >> thank you so much for your time this afternoon. great panel. and "fast money" is coming up in a few moments. melissa lee joins us with a preview. >> hey, kelly. all about yellen today. but there might actually be a bigger concern amongst institutional investors on the street. we'll get into that and what the traders think about that a little later on in the show. >> i like it. over to you guys. breaking news here. a big sell-off on the street, following the fed announcement. the s&p 500 tanking over 1% a session low. ending the day down on just under 12 points. our traders tonight are tim seymour, josh brown, tim nathan and guy adami. marking janet yellen's news conference as fed chair, her words sent shock waves when she suggested interest rate hikes would happen about six months after qe ends. >> the language we use in the statement is considerable, period. so, i -- you know, this is the
kind of term, it's hard to define. but you know, probably means something on the order of around six months or that type of thing. >> the dow taking over 200 points of its session low, ending the day down just over 114 points. and look at how we ended the day in the bond market. gold, financial, and the utilities. it's the intraday movements that were the most interesting in the markets. tim, what did you think of this move? >> for a fed that's being more qualitative. and i think as much as the bond market moves and the bond market leads, the bond market will get ahead of the fed. i wouldn't be that concerned about the move in the fed fund futures. the fed is going to tell us less. for a lot of people, it reinforces the fact that the fed, really, is going with the flow here. i think what the fed said is positive for cyclicals. this is a buy on ryder. they're telling you have a place
where the market is looking better. the fact that the bond market is moving, we want fed rates to go higher. >> you bought comments. >> these are places -- if you want to know what you should be buying, if you think the economy is as strong as the market reacted to today, these are the names you circle. >> i'll tell you why i think we saw a sell-the-news reaction. a couple things caught market people offguard. not that they're so terrible. but they require getting used to. first things first, talk about how they could raise the fed funds rate within six months of finishing the stimulus program's taper. i thought it was premature in the minds of how people were thinking about how long zero percentage rates should be around. as a result of that, the yield curve flattens. you have a bigger jump in the five-year treasury than the ten. and i don't think people were expecting it. the other thing i thought was interesting was you had a rip in the u.s. dollar/japanese yen, which had been positively correlated with stocks. but not today.
and that's an interesting divergence. i don't follow the currency stuff as some of the guys on the desk. i heard a lot of chatter about that. >> what's funny, think back to the taper tantrum in may and june. the playbook today was similar to that. we saw bonds got nailed. but xlu got nailed out of the gate. all of the utilities, the best-performing sector this year. and eem, in particular, really sold off. 2.5% in a straight line. this is the price action we saw back in may and in june. eem sold off 18.5% from the highs in may to the lows in june. it's been in the downtrend since then. i think you can press eem. i think you see new lows in the next month. >> guy? >> i think tim was kind in his language. i think the fed is winging it. but i don't think that's necessarily important. look at the way citibank reacted
today. it started trading around 55. got down to 47. traded off again. but up almost 2% today. i think citi sets up really well. especially if the curve is going to start to go in favor of a name like citi, i think the risk/reward for citi, for the first time in a long time, sets up really well. especially on a day like today, up 2%. i think it's telling you something. >> citi and bank of america, in particular. the banks that will make money off the bond market. >> that's what mayo was saying at the desk. if you look at the taper tantrum in may/june, gold goes to 1,200. you have key levels to watch on gold. as far as e.m., you have 20-straight weeks in e.m. fund flows. you have a place where it traded in a predictable range. but the downside is 37.50. i think the upside is 40. >> gold down 4.5% this week. like, in three days.
predating anything that the fed had to say today. >> we're in a bear market in gold. the rallies in gold are dangerous. again, you can see a 15%, 20% run in gold. but it's in a bear market for gold. >> stocks may be down today. but we're in the midst of one of the best periods of the year for the market historically. the last weeks in march have seen positive returns in each of the last seven years, with gains around 2%. where should you be putting your money to take advantage of the seasonal strength? let's bring in paul hickey, the co-founder of the spoke investment group. there's two stocks that outperformed the s&p 500 100% of the time in the time you study this two-week period. which stocks were they? >> if you're worried about a 60-point basis sell-off in this market, you shouldn't be in this market. as part of our approach, we look at a variety of things. one of them is seasonal factors. we update clients on which
stocks do the best. you don't want to invest based solely on seasonalities, of course. but it's one-prong of a multiprong approach. we have a list of stocks that have been positive. 80%, 90%, 100% of the time. some of the stocks we discussed were dollar tree, netflix, tenet health care, perrigo. they've outperformed the s&p 500 consistently. these overreactions to fed statements that we see on the upside or the down side, since zirc was enacted, have reversed themselves the following week. >> gamestop is on your list, as well. we talked about it last night, tim and i did. and it had this monster sell-off. and we thought the risk/reward for gamestop looks interesting. you have the bad news. the walmart news, which is probably old news behind. did you look at gamestop when you came to the show? that's the most interesting
setup. >> look you just said, the walmart news, the stock got slaughtered on that yesterday. the bad news is behind it in the short-term. it's a seasonally strong time of year. >> what's funny about the walmart news, is they tried the same thing in 2009 and it didn't work. >> yeah. >> and toys "r" us has tried it. taking over their used game business. toys "r" us tried and didn't work. best buy tried. it didn't work. this has happened before. and gamestop seems to find a way to overcome it. i actually agree with you on that. >> on the stocks on that list, which would you actually put in your -- yes, you crunch the numbers. but that doesn't necessarily you're going to go out and buy them in this period. >> it's one part of a multiprong approach. we mentioned gamestop. that's a name you can look at. the risk/reward is more attractive. netflix has been drifting lower. that's a name you could see a bounce. consumer discretionary is one of
the best sectors during this period. you want to look at the names like netflix and dollar tree, which i mentioned earlier. >> you're talking the last two weeks of the month, the quarter. i get why we're doing that. but april is a time where we set up for a dangerous time for markets. i think why when we're near highs, people worry about a down day like today. give us a look into april/may, when we've really had big problems for this market in years past. >> may is a period where we've seen teurbulence over the last two years. but march/april is the best stretch for consecutive months. the seasonals are in favor there. i just lost my train of thought. you want to -- you have that in your favor. and this is short-term. coming back to people are -- we talk about our investors becoming too complacent. every hyperbole you can throw in about a 60-basis point decline.
>> it has the potential to be a start of something. new chairwoman of the fed. new language. she took some big gulps mentioning that in six months we may have this sort of thing. that did not instill confidence. when you have a market that's already jittery for a whole host of reasons, valuations that are stretched. we have a new bit of uncertainty about how the fed may monitor policy. we're probably up 60 bips and down 600 bips. to me, it's almost complacent to be complacent about the 60-bip move. >> any point decline can be the beginning of something new. >> does that make sense? >> double-negative. had to think about it. >> you are shorting every down 100-point day on the dow over the last couple of years -- >> you wouldn't be here. >> because of a fed statement, you have been carried out of this market feet-first already so many times. >> and back to ben bernanke.
when he started giving press conferences, he always sounded nervous. but you have to -- it's a change of style at the fed. you have to get used to it. you look back historically. when you have a new fed chair, people say there's going to be a messy handoff. the market isn't more volatile and doesn't see more weakness during the first year of a fed chairperson's term. >> let's look at the list again. netflix, gamestop, perrigo. thoughts, josh? >> they seem to be -- what's interesting is they seem to be special situation stocks. i'm not even -- >> this is over the past ten years, even. >> i'm not even trading these names. but i can tell you what the story -- the quote/unquote story behind each of them. probably the one that's most interesting to me is dollar tree. it's a tough competitive space. and that has not been one of the biggest winners there. but they're going some things right. and i like the valuation. >> analysts buzzing about apple's iphone 6. we have someone who says even the 6 can't help apple stock.
find out why he says the apple growth story is over. plus, investment advice from the white house? find out what our traders think about this comment. >> i wouldn't if i were you. invest in russian equities right now. i think -- unless you're going short. "hidden things." ok, why's that? well uhhh... surprise!!! um... well, it's true. at ally there are no hidden fees. not one. that's nice. no hidden fees, no worries. ally bank. your money needs an ally. ameriprise asked people a simple question: can you keep your lifestyle in retirement? i don't want to think about the alternative. i don't even know how to answer that. i mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. i try not to worry, but you worry. what happens when your paychecks stop?
at a company that's bringing media and technology together. next is every second of nbcuniversal's coverage 0f the 2014 olympic winter games. it's connecting over one million low-income americans to broadband internet at home. it's a place named one america's most veteran friendly employers. next is information and entertainment in ways you never thought possible. welcome to what's next. comcastnbcuniversal.
welcome back to "fast money." another challenging tale for the consumer here. guess taking a hit in the after-hours, town about 6%. profits and sales beat wall street estimates. but its frost for net loss in the current quarter has people rattled. north america store traffic and the overall promotional environment remain challenging. southern europe was a drag on the european business. and guess shares down about 7% in 2014 before this release. they're up only about 7% over the course of the past year. back to you. >> thanks, dom chu. we heard this from so many different retailers in terms of heavy promotional activity. guy, what are you watching here? >> i'm watching the price action. the 27-low was in september. it traded there in mid-january, early february. now, looks like it wants to take it out. now, you have to look out for the stock to gap to 24 1/2, 25, before it gets interesting.
to me, there's no such thing as a triple-bottom. we're probably not going to hold 27 tomorrow. it's been two years since apple announced its dividend. but the stock is down 11% since march of 2012. the apple growth story is just plain over. joining us is colin gillis. colin, great to see you. >> great to be here. >> the iphone 6 is going to trigger an upgrade or more people to upgrade when there wasn't a compelling reason. and now, a bigger screen will be the reason. that's false? >> there will be a degree of people who upgrade. but the smartphone market is maturing. and the market is changing. apple's iphones sell for around $650 unsubsidized. the average selling price of a smartphone is $330 or so. the price gap continued to widen while the functionality gap continues to narrow. just releasing a bigger iphone isn't going to solve apple's problems. they need to open up new
categories. >> like tv? like a watch? those things? >> tv, that's not going to happen anytime soon, right? the watch, the quantifieied sel where you data your calis, blood pressure, that kind of thing. that could be a success. but for them to get 10% of revenue, they need to sell at the 299 price point, they're going to sell 57 million of those a year. >> let me ask you something. everything you're saying on apple sounds almost exactly what they were saying about microsoft two years ago. it's not a growth company. competitors are catching up, meaning apple. there were no new products. there's no innovation. the stock's doubled in the last 18 months or something. not even including the dividend. why shouldn't we want to buy companies when they're in the middle of a lull in innovation, like apple is right now? >> don't you want to make sure there are going to be categories that are going to up that they'll be successful in. for those who think the company is a growth story, it's not.
it's trading at nine-times when you back out the cash. >> it's not being priced as a growth story. >> it's not a broken company. so, what do we do with the stock here? ultimately, it's a valuation that's very reasonable, whether they're innovating or not. the stock is interesting on the charts. it's trading in a range. >> i think it's fairly valued right here. >> i want to see a pullback before i got more excited. you might get one, right? this is the product lull, as we -- march quarter is kind of numb. june quarter might be weak. >> no upside from china. this is supposed to help them after the holiday season. >> you're rather pay up once they put out a product that looks like it's some kind of a new -- >> not necessarily. if i want to step in the name, i want to get it cheaper. if i owned it, i would -- >> you're saying right now, apple, where it is here, is essentially dead money, except for the dividend payout you're getting. >> correct. >> the consume products company whose products have become commoditize.
is that what you're saying? >> yeah. >> that's a bold statement. >> this is a natural cycle. >> 800 installed users on on android. 250 million ios users. can they shake it up? retake share? assuming that they're going to go down. they never introduced the low-end phone. they get two-thirds of their profits from iphone or ios in general. there has to be something to do there. the innovation gap has narrowed. the sales on the android, they're hunks of junk. the iphone is still the best phone out there. if they have a 4.7, 6-inch sort of thing, then, they tie in services. there has to be something that can reinvigorate the user base and growth. >> your point about services, that's the key thing. they have to be working on the services layer because ultimately, amazon, google, they can give the hardware away at no profit and make revenue on the services. >> you say there's a company that's defending gross margins to a fault and they need to just
go to a lower price. >> i think the first thing you do, you have a wonderful period of time when people are buying your products and paying up. build and invest in the services layer. >> that's a great point. itunes probably has 500 million accounts that have credit cards hooked up to them, right? >> why not do more with that? >> i would lower the price. that's what amazon's model in a way. that's how you grow $170 billion in sales over a period of time. and it's not priced for growth. it's a value stock that could do better. >> are we being obvious by thinking about new product categories? the tv, the watch. what they're doing with bitcoin on their app store seems to indicate they're going to enter that area, which would tie into the credit card numbers that they have. >> i beacons excites me. the ability to have low-power bluetooth and step into a store. they need to be pushing fast and hard on that. >> what's a new apple? if apple is old and dead money
aed this point? >> it's the largest market cap company out there. when you're number one, you can only stay number one and you're ultimately going to fall down. >> it's down, you're saying. what's the new apple? >> you know, apple -- if you look at the companies like jawbone. and basis just got bought by intel. people who are chasing after the quantified self-marketplace, wearables, that's a big market. google's really aggressive in it with google glass. and they just announced their android wearables yesterday. >> colin gillis. steve grasso is observing the show today. cheering us on. he said the other day that apple is an absolute sell. you came on the next day -- you thought he was on crack. >> i'd like to get him on the phone right now and duke it out. i don't get it, actually. i look at gross margin recovery. maybe what's going on. china, to me, is a lottery ticket. they do not need china. china is not in this valuation.
china is just rolling out 4g. they need a lower price point. i said that all along. i think if you look at where we are, protecting the margin is something they've done. and they've done it so far. but the valuation does not say the stock's going down. it's not a broken company. >> i agree. i think it's more of a buy than a sell, even if you have to sit on it for a while before they do something exciting. really hard to get rid of a stock selling below ten-times earnings with all that cash. coming up, asset allocation advice from the white house on russia. the story behind that is next. and later, the real wolf of wall street is teaching america how to succeed. jordan bellford handed out advice on ethics by his webinar today. we have the details ahead.
reall? so our business can be on at&t's network for $175 a month? yup. all 5 of you for $175. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line, anytime, for $15 a month. low dues, great terms. let's close! new at&t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business.
no two people have the same financial goals. pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. talk to a pnc investments financial advisor today. ♪ save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.ould yep, everybody knows that. well, did you know the ancient pyramids were actually a mistake? uh-oh. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.
white house press secretary jay carnie giving quite the piece of investment advice in regards to russia. >> if i were you, i wouldn't invest in russian equities right now. unless you're going short. >> all right. where do we begin with this? that's all i have to say. >> he sounded like art carney to me. i think it's absurd. and having trading russia forever, isn't this what i expect from the russian government to make comments about the market. i think it's absurd. and sarcastically, i would say is the government a registered
adviser here? and telling people to short the russian market -- >> it's irresponsible. >> i don't think he means that people should short russian stocks. i think he's being a little bit sarcastic. he probably wishes he could take it back. but let me tell you two things about this. number one, russia has been a very, very bad place for equity investors for years and years now. selling at four-times earnings, prior to anything to do with the crimea. the country has real problems. it's not they're insurmountable. but people are worried about asset forfeitures than about anything going on with 1% gdp growth. they pay about 6% or 7% to fund the government. not a great place to be. but the second thing is, nothing the u.s. can do is really going to change the russia story. >> you agree with -- regardless of whether it was irresponsible, it's not a good place to be, you said. >> it's not a good place to be. >> you agree with jay carney. >> he's making the case that
u.s. sanctions hurt them. this is a country that's sitting on 80 million barrels of crude reserves of oil. they don't care if we put sanctions in place. >> they're laughing at this. >> exactly. i agree. >> it's irresponsible. it's irresponsible. >> i disagree on the sarcasm. he's a white house press secretary. sarcasm about the bulls game. not about that. if you short russia on the back of that and it rips in your face, you should sue carney and the white house staff. it's wrong. >> if you want to take it back -- >> this is emblematic. he does not know how to handle the situation. >> the point is that the u.s. has no way to win this nor should they want to. geopolitically, there's no prize here. and nothing we can do can affect the russian economy sanction-wise because it's an oil economy. toyota, agreeing to the
largest criminal penalty imposed on any automaker ever. what it might mean for gm down the line. phil lebeau has this story. >> this is a bopper of a fine that toyota will be paying. a total of $1.2 billion. all of this stems from the unintended acceleration recall issue in 2008, 2009, 2010. those recalls, ultimately linked with five deaths. toyota recalled more than 10 million vehicles suspected of unintended acceleration. and today, the u.s. attorney talked about how toyota repeatedly lied to the public. >> in that moment, in a misguided and ill-advised effort of crisis management, toyota made the fateful decision to mislead the public to protect its brand. the company covered up and misled again and again and again. >> well, what's happened to toyota share since 2009? look at this chart. a lot of people will say the market was up over the last three years.
up 75%. now, take a look at shares of general motors year-to-date. the reason we're showing you this is because a lot of people are looking at what's happened with toyota and saying, is that where general motors is going to be three, four, five years from now? if the u.s. attorney is currently investigating what gm knew, when they knew it. today, the attorney general was asked about the gm investigation. here's what he had to say. >> i think this is a sign for the industry, that we take these matters seriously. individuals, corporations will be held accountable. and great work has been done by this team can be replicated if that's necessary. >> by the way, the attorney general did say, he's not going to comment whether or not the investigation, where it's at, where it might be headed to. but you guys know, once they have an automaker in their sights, like they did with toyota, as they do with general motors, a lot of people will start extrapolating. if it's 1.2 billion, will gm be
facing a bigger fine in the future? that's one of the questions out there. >> phil, thanks for that. phil lebeau, in chicago. dan nathan, is that the reason not to invest in gm right now? >> i don't think so. the government bails you out and they sue you for $1 billion. that sort of thing. i think gm has reserves for this sort of thing. after the break, the company that is betting the house on a john stamos "full house" reunion. >> oh. >> take off your pants, greek boy. >> huh? >> you heard the man. >> take off the pants. that's going to stain. plus -- good question. just how might those rising milk costs be weighing on dannon's bottom line? the ceo of the dannon company joins us, next. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade.
i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates.
according to a survey, investors cite a weaker china as a bigger risk in the next 12 months. do you agree with these results, tim? >> what yellen said today, that now we are in a big risk. the fed and superbanks around the world have brought us into an area where it's a huge unknown. there's some level of transparency here. the way the fed handled the numbers, maybe they've done a good job. >> forced to choose. >> which is scarier? janet or china? >> you've threatened the fed a lot. >> history will show they're acting in irresponsible -- they could be one of the most destructive groups in the mystery of the united states. in time. i can't back that up now. but in time. i think what they did at the time was right. i think the duration which they're doing it is totally irresponsible. let's see what happens. >> what about this? what if we have growth go to 5.5% in the near-term and the
fed's out of bullets? >> i'm taking the other side of this. i'm going to say that the best thing that can -- look, the chinese stock market, is at one-third of what it was in 2007. i think a lot of the fear is already there. the best thing that could happen is they totally reset expectations. they stop clicking to try to be 8%. they are 6%. they do the handoff. and i think the market will exhale and start thinking more constructively and stop the credit bubble now. starbucks holding its shareholder meeting today. and it seems that ceo howard schultz is more worried about rising dairy costs than coffee prices. >> the coffee market is going to do what it has to do. it's less than 20% of our cost of goods. the truth of the matter is dairy is probably a bigger issue going forward than coffee. we will be able to maintain our guidance, our eps, and manage and negotiate through any rise in coffee costs. >> starbucks is a stock that's
done pretty well. up 33% over the last 12 months. but it's been struggling since december. it's been dead money since december. >> yeah. and i think part of that is just valuation. i think these guys traded -- i don't think it's coffee at all. they've hedged their coffee prices through the first quarter of 2015. howard shultz is nailing this. i think the recovery in the share price is certainly top notch. >> it's 70 and -- back at 70 a couple weeks ago. it was a good level. it had a nice double-bottom. america's greek yoeger obsession is dominating the yogurt industry. as dannon, yoplait and chi bonnie battle it out. but will rising dairy prices affect the bottom line. let's bring in mariano lazana. are consumers going to feel the price at the yogurt? >> it's a worldwide type of a
thing. we're going to need to adjust prices. but we need to keep in mind that it has huge potential, still, from the yogurt consumption point of view. americans eat only one yogurt a week, per average. the guidance is to have one yogurt per day or three servings per day. we're talking about it still has huge potential to grow. >> you're looking at volume to offset pressure on margins at this point. >> we're doing whatever it takes to defend. we are moving up prices, following. but this is for the full industry. innovation will drive prices. >> how long do you think dairy prices will stay at these levels? is there going to be an abatement going into the second half of the year? >> we have two sides of the
coin. also, the rising cost is because of the rise of the consumption. we have to keep tracking how the efficiencies of the farmers. the production of milk. it's good news that there's a higher level of consumption of dairy products. the dairy products are carrying nutrients. >> the usda says they're distributing yogurt to the schools. are you positioned for that? you have the children's line of yogurt, including danimals. >> we are fully equipped with the capacity. we have good news that the government is announcing that they include yogurt in the wik program for the women and child. we've been looking for that piece of news for a long time. we are equipped for that. >> in terms of greek yogurt, is that cannibalizing the sales of other yogurt? >> greek yogurt counts as half
of the category. but a sector that is growing in the high single digits for the category. still a lot of room for improvement. but we are yogurtmaker. the biggest yogurtmaker in the u.s. and we have the full range. you have people that likes the greek yogurt. and people that like other kind of forms, texture and creamocity. >> thank you for stopping by. mariano lozano. guy, i know you like fruit on the bottom. >> i'm not sure what that means. >> what does that mean? >> i'm stating fact. this is a fact. >> i find it uncomfortable. let's stop. >> you should. listen, b.n. is the way to trade the stock. >> you started this now. mel started it. >> i'm actually a danimals guy. >> i'm trying to have a serious yogurt conversation. >> i have advice for you.
>> josh has advice. >> if you want to speed the american adoption of greek yogurt, you have to make it less healthy. i would fry something, put it on top. that's the issue, are we a healthy enough culture to eat more things like greek yogurt? it seems to be really easy to get people to eat doritos tacos, like almost overnight, you sell 100 million of them. >> you look like you're on a hunger strike over there. >> we're going to move on. time for "pops and drops." a drop for nu skin, down 6%. >> they're being investigated in china, some of the sales practices. they made a couple changes overnight. the stock is in half. avoid this. >> a pop for hewlett-packard. >> i would say stay away. 52-week high. but the trajectory continues to -- i think you stay with this at 31 1/2. >> drop for orbitz worldwide. josh? >> orbitz is up 400% from last
year. had a huge run. this year, not so good. it's a good competitive space. and that's what you're seeing today. >> drop for freeport. >> it was a wild day for copper. i think copper holds the levels. but freeport has issues in indonesia. they're being forced to build a smelter. this is the reason they went into oil and gas development. i think the stock's interesting because it's at the bottom of the range. but i don't need to own it. clowngrade or downgrade, josh holds his feet to the fire on his latest call. much more ahead. (vo) you are a business pro. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...
and go. and only national is ranked highest in car rental customer satisfaction by j.d. power. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. humans -- even when we cross our "t's" and dot our "i's," we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness with our auto policies. if you qualify, your rates won't go up
due to your first accident. because making mistakes is only human, and so are we. we also offer new car replacement, so if you total your new car, we give you the money for a new one. call liberty mutual insurance at... and ask us all about our auto features, like guaranteed repairs, where if you get into an accident and use one of our certified repair shops, your repairs are guaranteed for life. so call... to talk with an insurance expert about everything that comes standard with our base auto policy. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?
goldman has covered the sector bert than most of the large firms. what they missed here was very key. first soerl has a joint venture with g.e. they're focused on thin film solar. but they're not ceding the entire residential market to solar city. solar city has done well. but first solar is going to get aggressive in the home market. right? i think that's what goldman missed. the stock had an outrageously good day today. i'm sticking with it. they put out guidance of this year between 220 and 260 a share. and looking for somewhere between 450 and $6 a share in earnings for 2015, which makes the stock very cheap relative to its growth rate. >> the share count had increased 15% since the last meeting. i hear what you're saying. josh, you've been bullish on solar. but i don't get why we're going after the analysts for being wrong. analysts are wrong all the time. is the point that these guys
downgraded at the wrong time? >> i'm wrong every day. it's not -- it's not right or wrong. it's the reasoning behind. and i think the goldman call could have been, look, we like both these for different reasons. one of them is going to address utility scale. and one is going to address home leasing of solar rooftops. instead, it's either/or. not a great call. twitter shares down 19% on the year. but option traders think the lows are behind us. dan nathan made it to the smart board. >> the stock's been flirting with the $50 level. the options weren't running that hot. they were trading over what they have been the last 30 days on average. put valium was high. but there was one seller, a closing seller. he sold 2,500 of the january 15 puts. and 7,000 of the january 40 puts. all to close. that's closing out a hedge or closing out outright bearish bet. when you look at the chart,
since its inception in early november, look what happened on the opening day. 50 bucks, that was the high. when it broke out at the end of last year, 50 bucks, went straight to 70. when the stock gapped down, where did it stop on a dime? at 50 bucks. we're at 51 bucks. a month from now, the company will report q-1 earnings. very important. on may 6th, 475 million shares are coming unlocked here. this level, right here, is the one to watch over the next month. your guess is as good as mine. but one trader was betting that it probably holds 50 at this point. >> guy, what do you think? >> i thought it would go in the high 40s. i think that's where it's headed. you can build here. i think you have a chance to see 47 half, 48. i this i the price action hasn't been great for a couple weeks. i think it heads a little lower. >> catch for "options action" every friday at 5:30 eastern time. the ipo market is on fire.
now, you may be able to get on the next big ipo before wall street. loyal3 is able to get you a piece of your favorite companies. and the real wolf of wall street, emerging from the woods for the first times since the movie. we have details after this we have details after this break. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [ tires screech ] chewley's finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck. get the most extensive charting wherever you are with the mobile trader app from td ameritrade.
we still run into problems. that's why liberty mutual insurance offers accident forgiveness if you qualify, and new car replacement, standard with our auto policies. so call liberty mutual at... today. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? at a company that's bringing media and technology together. next is every second of nbcuniversal's coverage 0f the 2014 olympic winter games. it's connecting over one million low-income americans to broadband internet at home. it's a place named one america's most veteran friendly employers. next is information and entertainment in ways you never thought possible.
welcome to what's next. comcastnbcuniversal. want to get ahead of wall street on the next big ipo? it might not be so far-fetched. loyal3 has offered early access for three major ipos. and it says the pipeline is heating up. with us is the chairman and ceo of loyal3, barry schneider. you've had three companies ipo with you. what has the track record been because of the performance of these companies? >> each has trended up. >> and so, what is the point of getting the retail investor? wall street has never cared about getting the buy-in of the retail investor. it's really the institutions that provide the applications of strong hands after the ipo. >> i would argue with that. we're providing access for the
first time to the everyday investor. and what we've seen is that 98% have held on day one. and 90% are holding after day 30. if we get more of the people into the market, that's going to provide some stability. >> why is that different from institutional investors? that doesn't seem to be superior. it seems to be saying it's just as good. i would push back and say institutional investors hold on for longer. some of them have to hold or for longer. others will hold on because they want to get a piece of the next one. >> i think we're talking about institution, plus, traditional retail, plus, our retail. and our retail is more sticky because it's like our parents. it's people that are buying and holding. >> couldn't you make the argument, facebook is the biggest disaster. retail got too much of it. and they couldn't hold on to it. and the institutions never came in the way they were supposed to. and the thing got cut in half. to me, i get what you're saying. but ipos, in the right market are great for everybody. in the wrong market, they're
atrocious for retail. >> awesome point. facebook wasn't the retail we go after. that was much wealthier people. people that are in some -- you had to have $1 million in assets. some $100,000 of assets to get into the allocation. we're talking about people who can invest $100 to $10,000. we're talking about everyday americans. >> people just be in index funds. should they be speculating on early growth companies that are coming public with very little financial information? >> and how are they getting that information is a just point. >> the major point is that a lot of these people are investing in ipos. they're investing the first day. and when you look at the statistics over the last ten years, what the average increase is, that means these people are in at a higher price. >> they're buying after the pop. >> absolutely. this way, people who come into our platform, small investors almost have institutions as a proxy.
>> it says it's heating up. what -- >> what does heating up mean? >> can you get someone that opens an account today, can you get them ali baba? >> we can't speak about any perspective issues, obviously. we're co-managering underwriter for amc. we're a co-managering underwriter for the consumer usa. we're proud to provide those stocks to anybody on our platform. and we have a lot more big-time stocks come. >> barry, thanks for your time. barry schneider of loyal3. jordan belfort is making the return to the public eye after the movie made it big. what is he up to? you'll not believe this. jane wells has the story in los angeles. >> of course, you'll believe it, melissa. he had a webinar today. belfort is selling a program how to be successful closers through ethical persuasion, using the
right tone, body language, to control a conversation. teaching you how in four seconds to convince someone on the phone you're sharp, enthusiastic and an expert. >> not just to close the deal, but to influence. to negotiate. sell your vision. sell the vision for your future to your employees. sell to yourself. that voice, that force we have inside of us. that subliminal force that can propel us to greatness, it's your own voice. >> legally, belfort admits what he did wrong and deserved what he got. but he also said this of the investments he manipulated -- >> if you would have invested $10,000 in every one of stratton's new issues, and held today, my guess is you would be up 100-times on your money. because a couple of them were wild successes. and a lot of them were dogs. >> all right. really? however, belfort says never
pressure a client to buy what they shouldn't buy. and he says celebrities are now calling him to do lunch. >> of course, they are. i would expect nothing less. jane, thank you for that. jane wells in los angeles. coming up next hour on "mad money," cramer is in beseattle. he has the exclusive with starbucks ceo howard schultz. listen as he talks about the next opportunity that has nothing to do with coffee or tea. >> if i watched what you have done and i need the best in mobile payments. can i call you and say the vision you have digital, i'd like to license your technology? >> you are a step ahead of most people. we are getting calls from retailers of all kinds, asking whether or not we would like -- we would white label. >> right. this is the key. >> what we have done. >> much more with howard schultz. plus, the president of nordstrom and zillow, on a very special
to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. gundyes!n group is a go. not just a start up. an upstart. gotta get going. gotta be good. good? good. growth is the goal. how do we do that? i talked to ups. they'll help us out. new technology. smart advice. we focus on the business and they take care of the logistics. ups? good going. we get good. that's great. great. great. great. great. great. great. great. great. (all) great! i love logistics.
final trade. tim? >> bwz. >> j.b.? >> fruit on the bottom. >> i'm long at puts. >> health care bounces from here. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back at 5:00 tomorrow more for "fast money." "mad money" begins right now. d. "mad money" from seattle, begins right now. my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. welcome to seattle, washington. welcome to the starbucks'