tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC October 31, 2014 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
guys have a great weekend, a great halloween. jon steinberg thank you for joining us. for now we'll send it over to noontime. and the judge and the halftime show. welcome to the halftime show. meet our starting lineup. jon and pete najarian, are co-founders of option monsters. josh brown, mike murphy, we begin with this big rally to end an incredible month. the dow hitting a new interday high today. fresh stimulus in japan giving a big boost to stocks here and around the world.
s&p up 15% in ten days. nasdaq up 12%. is there more room to go? is this too much to fast or not? everybody is bullish now again. >> it always feels like too much toovz. and as i mentioned yesterday i had been in the camp that i didn't think there was much more to go in this snap back and i said look the internals are telling me that i'm wrong. and yesterday pointed to the new high low index. today i'll point to advanced decline. expanding leadership. expanding amount of stocks joining the rally. companies that missed aerks coming back to new highs and companies that beat earnings continuing to lead. almost every sector, almost every stock. small caps, mid cap, large caps and now thanks to central bankers it's international. every continent. so i'm not sure if you could say this looks terrible. it looks nice.
>> pete. between now and years end. what are you buying. >> that is a tougher question than i've been doing. i've been selling stuff today. to josh's point when you go back and look and start to see what were the earnings that absolutely crushed them? goldman sachs crushes earnings. stock goes down to 170. here going through 52 week highs at 190. do i still think there is upside? yeah. i think if you had to pick one area i'd go to the financials. based on the fed earlier this week i think the financials have the most torque behind them. >> the banks look totally sick. i agree. >> every one of them. goldman sachs, morgan stanley outperform but j.p. morgan, citi, bank of america. >> so you are bullish with a sense of caution. selling into the strength. mur murph? >> i'm doing less selling into
the strength. i agree with pete in the financials but citi came out and blind sides everybody yesterday. and the stock is trying to move to 2020 now. i'm looking at companies that came out with great earnings. i don't need to buy a company. in this environment when the s&p is near all time highs you don't need to take a chance on companies into earnings. look at companies that came out with great numbers and look to buy those after they pulled off a little bit. and there are still a lot of companies out there. and citi and bank of america are two that could fit. >> where does this go? >> i thought it was likely that gragdy w draghi was going to make a move. however it was the boj that did instead and shocked us. so what does that mean? lower for longer, faster. and it means the pressure is
really on the brunds bank. not on draghi. but the brundis bank is going on the that. >> you have the fed taking its foot off the gas. the b.o.j. stepping on the pedal and now people look for europe to join the party what is the negative? >> there's so much negative in the market it's unbelievable to me. we're out of qe and we're doing all right for ourselves. >> so rates aren't going up. just saying you are ending qe and actually raisingsing interest rates are two things.
>> -- >> trillions of the buy backs. that's why we're here. let's note kid ourselves. >> when you look judge, your question also at the top of the show was did we come back too fast? and my answer is we went down awful fast. we talk about stairs up, elevator down right? as far as how the stock market moves. take a look at the spy. beginning october it was 198. where is it now? basically 200. so it's not made a monster move. it just recaptured and took back and took out a loot of the fear put in because of the forced liquidations which was textbook. october 16th, textbook. people will be putting nit textbooks for year as far as how they played out. two levered contracts. crude oil and bonds both taken out to the wood shed and many of those commodities traders just flushed. >> and how about the canary in the coal mine.
microchip. everybody said oh my good. look at what microchip had to say. everybody read that and the entire chip space gets smacked down. opportunity. do we really listen to the $7 billion company or do we want to hear from intel. we heard from intel it. goes higher. the rest of the space, texas instruments, taiwan semi conductor. and micron. but you look at that space judge, the smh, the chip space, up 20 percent -- 15 percent from lows. that as huge run. and when we talk akd at the top of the show take some proul pro of the profits. >> and we had so many people coming on the show and tells how great the ceo at microchip was and they are so many many parts of the kmip manufacturing, micron, intel.
>> broad com. >> nxpi. >> let's keep throwing them out. >> it is a great point. -- >> pringles. >> one company came outlet and had negatives and everybody sold is space. but things are very strong and management is still bullish on the overall chip sector. they thought samsung's comments were polls for themselves also. >> our next guest says it pays to go against the herd. dan cos low ski. his fund has outperformed 98% of his peers for last three years. joining us live from denver. >> thanks for having me scott. >> how do you feel about the market given what wore seeing.
>> it feels good to have the market up on the basket of this qe announcement out of japan. but the fund which i run we are not really macro driven. we build the portfolio from the bottom up stock by stock. the as contrarian fund. so we look for stocks underfollowed, unappreciated and therefore likely unvalued if a change factor can surface. so we overlay our change factor lens that focuses on three things. management change, spinoffs and industry consolidation backdrop stories. >> how is united airlines under loved and under followed? well, you know, united still has a five handle on its 16 earnings. and the stock has lagged delta considerably. we've been constructive on the entire space. and we owned delta for the last couple years. we don't own it now. we do quite well can with it. and the united is in the sweet spot of change delta was in 18 months ago.
the operations are working. it is clicking. the planes are full. and more importantly there is a cost story on united which should drive -- >> so you have swapped delta for united. >> we own them both. but now we're definitely -- united is one of our largest positions and we're very constructive on it. >> i gotcha. we got a little bit of the delay. i apologize for jumping in there. endo international. >> endo international, one of largest holdings. a changed management story. the portfolio a couple years ago. it was cheap and management didn't have the best track record. and one of my analysts serviced to me that number two, the president of the -- joined the company as ceo. and running the same game plan with a 10 billion dollar market cap. and he's also improved had cost structure of the company, moved
the profile to be longer duration. he's pushing all the right buttons now. >> i have some guys on the desk looking at gains we've seen. and maybe it is an opportunity to take some money off the table. you have endo up better than 50 percent in one year. united airlines up better than 50 percent over one year. what makes you think those gains can keep going? and maybe now is not the time to take some money off the table. >> we try to focus on the sweet spot of change, where again the operations are changing rapidly and the street has not yet fully appreciated what's playing out. and usually the financials lag just a bit. so we think the earnings power of these companies is going to really shine through in 15 or 16. we're we'll above the street on both companies. with united if it ever achieves a delta multiple, the stock has considerable up and with endo
it's well positioned and has a cost of capital advantage and continues to click. this year it's underperformed the market so we don't think it's overcooked here >> okay. thanks dan. appreciate it very much. >> you look at these contrarian funds and, i have money invested in that particular janice fund. and when the market pulls back --. it was such a v shaped fast drop and recovery. and if you missed this recent pull back tough to be buying up here i think. >> pete united airlines call. >> i like that name. i think there is upside to his point. i think it all involve this is whole idea of trying to -- they are still behind delta in terms of getting this consolidation of the two companies together. that is what's still part of the what's going to lift them to the upside.
>> you could even short against that judge, against pete's united. you could short lufthansa and other carriers overseas. the strong dollar might be good for many industries here like the retailers. but one thing it is not good for is european traffic across the atlantic. >> be careful if draghi acts though. that could have a major impact on those guys. >> exactly. making the euro cheaper versus the dollar again. so we might want to go there. so u.s. carriers to there. but they are having trouble putting the bodies in those planes because the dollars so strong against the euro. >> coming up one of you are traders never gave up on the japan trade and telling you to stay long all year. is he sticking with that story now. find out after the break. the market may not look that spooky but wait till you hear about halftime's haunted trades. the traits that continue to haunt to this day.
the ghost of trades past. also citi forced to revise numbers after facing new legal costs but mike mayo is not afraid of bad head lines. why he says now is the time to buy that weakness. up next. gopro flying high after an impressive third quarter. is this still lift in the stock? take a closer look at your fidelity green line and you'll see just how much it has to offer, especially if you're thinking of moving an old 401(k) to a fidelity ira. it gives you a wide range of investment options... and the free help you need to make sure your investments fit your goals -- and what you're really investing for. tap into the full power of your fidelity green line. call today and we'll make it easy to move that old 401(k) to a fidelity rollover ira.
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stocks that have hit the most 52 week high this is year. it's been a rough ride but gopro is surging today. not a surprise to our next guest. alex, welcome back. >> thanks. >> what do you see about the quarter. >> great quarter. you love to see a company coming out strong like this. the kpnexpectations were strongd they manage told beat even those. i think the stock keeps working. >> no one doubts that great christmas for gopro. it's a matter of what happens
next. the stock is trading now on the what happens next. >> i share no concerns about competition at all. it is the only brand in the action capture market right now. and as far as christmas, let's look at international sales. they were down on the quarter because they can't get their hands on the gopro fours yes. and then beyond that. i don't think this company is anywhere close to achieving full potential with everything it can do with media. so i'm expecting a long tail to this story. >> alex, i know you switched from $60 to 105 in october. after hearing earnings and knowing how successful they have been able to launch the latest model, as well as with content. people all say is this a media company or not. and i say it is. where is your target next? >> right now j and p's pargt on
gopro is 105. we put that on there. and found the outsized demand for hero 4 black, and it was validated. where it goes next. that is going to be validated by the evolution of content. and there is a lot of pillars to growth. the captures and the camera we all know about. the management and software, the apps that allow them to share and then the enjoyment part of the story. they have achieved 17 million hits on their adventures of life in 4 k debut video for the hero four. >> what was most impressive was the guide going forward but also the quarter they closed the book on they were able to beat street and on revenue top and bottom lines. so in other words the guidance going forward i think is a real positive for them to be so confidence that they can tell the street that.
the stocks that you follow that are crazy values like this one, when they are bullish enough to give you that kind of guide what does that tell you about the outlook. >> the crazy value statement. this is not by any stretch in our view a overly highly valued stock right now. we're still uses a discount so some other premium new media and internet peers out there. i think there is room in the valuation argument here. but as you pointed out they have let the street expect they would do mid growth. they deliver mid 40s and guide to mid 50s, acceleration into the december quarter, again without the help of the international releases here. so this story has so much gas left in the tank. >> alex, we'll make that the last word. thanks. >> thank you. >> unof our traders never gave up on the japan trade. he's been telling you all yearlong to stay long.
josh brown on the panel has been buying japanese small caps and large caps. >> we buy the severe dips. that market just continues to grind along. >> victory lap. got to make a lap around. >> no it's cool, man. this is why we get paid. we manage money in the industry. this is what we're supposed to do. every week there is another economic report out of japan contradicting the one from the week before. it is all non sense. all you need to know is it's one of the cheapest markets in the world and the trend is in the right direction. and i think when you look how the things are trading dxj is having its 13th biggest day in the last 20 years.
how most people have played this is with penny os may 2013 peak. and i think goes through. i like the japan trade. small caps in particular, 12 times forward earnings versus the recessal small caps. >> -- on this move. >> no because you get a 2% dividend yield. you have the yen hedge still. and i think this is the beginning, not the end of that economy getting stronger over time. >> agreement all the way around? >> yeah. it's a great trade. i'm not in the trade. but just worndering. i was wondering if he's more trading and buying dips and selling rips but sounds like it is for the long haul. >> we have 7% weight. we're probably overweight most of our pierce and i think it continues to work. >> will draghi follow in abe's
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they talked about looking for a partner in asia. i think that is why the 20% pop here today. if you are in it, take profits. >> josh, linkedin. >> off the chain. down 7% on the initial reaction. now up 13% right back at september highs. revenue up 40% year over year. >> exxon and chevron. >> exchon up to 88 bucks, chevron down -- 96 for exxon. 19 for chevron. >> starbuck's. i bought. sold calls. i think it goes higher. >> regrets, they have had a few but today we're going beyond regrets talking about the moves that have haunted had traders. find out the trades that give
these guys nightmares. and mike mayo reacts to the bomb shell earnings announcement at sit city. ju citi just after the break. at wvalues matter.ket, so we're transparent about the fresh wild seafood we sell. and the species we don't. independently rated for sustainability. traceable from dock to store. sent fresh from over 50 u.s fisheries
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moments away from the european markets closing. simon hobbs has the story at new york stock exchange. >> well you can see the rally there scott for everybody to see. the european central bank might not be move okay further qe but the bank of japan really lit a fire under the european trade today. a the broad based rally. the data still very pour. german retail sales down 3.2 cents month on month. can the ecb do anything? it looks decisive i indecisive. they have set a ratio much more lenient. barclays up 10% because it benefits proportionately as the investment bank operation.
banks in general have done well across europe today. as far as the earnings are concerned. british airways stock is well. iag, which owns british airways and iberia. winter tire specialist on the downside warning profit is going to be way down as a result of the russia troubles. stock is down 40e%. the big takeaway is really that europe fails to catch up on all that volatility relative to the united states. if you look at year's chart comparing the s&p 500 against european equities for the past 12 months you will see almost exactly a 10% underperformance. >> simon thanks. citi group surprising investors with an earnings adjustment cutting third quarter profit by
600 million. mike mayo is clsa's bank analyst. good the see you. is this a big deal or not? >> it's been 16 days since citi reported third quarter results and 16 days they came up with another $600 million write down. not again. citi needs to stay out of the head lines. having said that what you would say to your kids when they are acting badly. i don't lake what you did but i still love you. i don't like the $600 million write down but i still like citi group stock. it's like free candy at these prices. >> you were ready to ground members of their management for like two weeks. no play time, no voogs, nothing. and now you are able to look past this? >> well, no. this is the sort of issue citi has to get away from.
they need to shstay out of heads and show earnings stability. they need to become uneventful. they need to become boring. having said that it is not life threatening. and they remain what i think is the best restructuring story among global banks. >> what was your initial reaction when the headline hit yesterday afternoon. >> not again. a lot of talk about citi group and the culture hasn't really changed. and i've heard a lot of commentary. i know as well as anybody citi group would have effectively failed five times in the last century. they were the poster child for the recent financial crisis. two of the columns i wrote were how bad citi group is. think think they are going to the right place having said that. they are simplifying,
streamlining, cutting expenses, getting benefits of their 50 billion dollars of tax benefits. the bad bank called citi holdings is starting to turn a profit. and they are restructuring by a thousand cuts. so it is not as faps as i'd like to see. not as smooth but directionally we see the stock at $107 in four years. >> we had suni on from citi. and i'm long citi. is the reel catalyst them spinning off or selling off other parts of the wang. >> i think it's a combination of all this. citi group is not relying on the very aggressive revenue growth and that is good. with e continue i -- put it in context. long growth in the banking
industry would normally have grown 6 times faster during this expansion than it's actually grown. i like the fact citi is not shooting for crazy revenue growth. which means less chance to blow up. >> can i see the stock as well? >> josh brown your question? >> mike, why is that the case? it's a really interesting data point you bring out. is it all regulation or more competition. what makes it that these companies aren't keeping pace with the expanse elsewhere. >> it's a combination of the chick p or the eegg. if you have a risk off culture push birthday the regulaed by t. what is your alternative. streamline, cut cost, buy back stock. improve operating and capital efficiency. and citi is on that path better than any other bank.
>> seems like this has been going on. >> we talked about this. i testified to congress in 2002 about the issues of citi group and the other new banks. so this is not new news but they are finally taking the steps. they are going in the right direction. it is not as fast as i'd like to see. they can't keep having $600 million write downs but the silver line if they can resolve the legal issues. they are hauntded by their past mistakes. and if they can clean up andic --. another point that's missed. citi group is unanalyzable. of course. something else scary on this halloween are the balance sheets. you don't know what's lurking inside them. having said that i think what's underappreciated is we have a hundred thousand cell excel spreadsheet. a hundred thousand cells.
the output is they have $30 billion excess cap. to absorb these legal charges however thaw come. so 600 billion or a billion a year. they have capacity to absorb. and is still come a stock that we think goes to 107 in four years. >> mike. with clsa. do you guys agree? >> i think citi group is a pioneer of the bad bank bad bank business model. in my view i think what's hampered their stock performance is the international exposure, when the u.s. is the world ears fair and nobody wants any exposer to asia and that could change. >> that is the catalyst i think exists. to mike's question they spin off the assets i think that starts to be the catalyst that pushes them upside. >> do you like citi. >> long-term i'm a hundred percent with him on citi.
disagree with bank of america. but the investment banks right now far outperform short-term. >> the price action in citi. the stock is reacting well and tradi tradingjust off through 55. you get a break out in city and if you stop negative head lines i think the stock goes into the 60s. >> do you want to respond to the bank of america thing? >> i've said all along i'd rather morgan stanley. having the jelly in the doughnut without the g without. --. march 27, that is the day the federal reserve we think will say citi group you can now buy
back stock for the first time stins financial crisis. if they get a good clean bill of health then good. >> mark it on your calendar. march 27th bar, ban o on the sh. >> trick or treat stocks. while they are some of the cheapest in the s&p, find out if you should buy the type or beware. plus as usual jon najarian has found unusual activity. find out if he's getting paranormal with the industrials actions or not. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money? uhhh. no, that can't happen. that's the thing, you don't know how long it has to last. everyone has retirement questions.
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♪ the all-new c-class. at the very touch point of performance and innovation. ♪ coming up at the top of the hour, investors getting a treat on the halloween. and the last trading day of the month, the dow and s&p 500 up 10%. the nasdaq trading at a 14 year high. the anatomy of the snap back and how to invest it. and if financial advisers don't usually make sudden moves in a market like this but we have one of the top visors in the country joining us making changes right now. we'll talk about the unt hs's seening. the retails music man. helps the big retailers get you do spend more in their stores using music. apparently there is a science
behind it. we're going to have to see and hear it to believe it. does music impact your shopping habits. go to cnbc com/vote. >> when something unusual happensicious one of the najarians finds it and tried to make money on it. jon najarian. >> daynaher. like a lot of stocks it's made a nice move to the upside since then. trading over 80 up about 50 cents on the day. we noted very unusual activity out in december. it is traded 100:1 calls to puts. given it's made that big $8 move. not surprising they are buying a lot of options. they have doubled oun the day up to 60 cents. so this is a new position being taken on by somebody and somebody pretty big. we followed.
i bought. >> what is your holding period for this? >> since it is december, two or three weeks. but if it makes a quick pop into the mid 80s i'll probably exit and let you know. >> thank doc. the theme today is the trick or treat stocks. stocks that like a bargain but watch out. it could be a trick. dr. j is up first. >> ensco, oil drilling services. talk about a scary stock. no wonder this is trading a at low pe. but i like the sector. it's not been nice to me the last month but i like it at this level going forward. >> josh, gm? >> this is a tough one. popped on earnings but then put in a really nasty candle that day. i don't get interested until it's above 32.
>> murph, gt, good year tire. >> very low multiple. and if you look over the last month, massive drop and massive -- picture perfect v shaped recovery. i like the name because i think you are going to see a continued move higher in global auto sales that. plays into good year's plan. i see it above 27. >> where's pete? >> you are looking good. you have that gq look gong on down there. >> all this candy and. >> the candyman. >> i'm the candy man. valero. when you look at the pain this thing has been under i think a lot of that is now done and far more up upside than downside. when you look at the level, i think they are to the point where you can own valero going
upside. >> other names. pe less than 10. ford. >> love ford. i'm long the name. got back in it here. we're out in the high 17s. down here you get a great dividend. ford put in a bottom and can move higher here. >> pete, hp. >> you know what i think about that. stock goes nothing but higher. to the 40s and i think megan and the gang have figured it out. and when we see the split with the 3-d sprinting and the hybrid cloudy. a lot of reasons to still like this company. >> any reason to like ibm. >> only reason is because it's so cheap. but nouz it is a consulting company. and to me that is not an exciting space. >> coming up the best traders with us each day but sometimes they make a move they can't shake off. they are halftime's haunted trades and they are not pretty.
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remains mostly the same. joe terranova still in first place. dr. j in second. murph in third. pete fourth, josh steph and weiss rounding rounding out the >> i was sitting with four positions. i added hertz today. the stock has gone down to 21. we have a lot of big activists in there. we know ikahn is in there. the hangover is they haven't updated the financials. when that comes i think it unlocks the stock back into the 30s. >> reaction is still pouring in to apple's ceo tim cook's very personal oped where he wrote "i'm proud to be gay." cook becoming the first high profile ceo to come out publically. here is what starbucks ceo had to say on squawk on the street.
>> everyone who knows tim was cheering tim cook and what he did yesterday and the courage and conviction. it is a wonderful sign to the country and to the wurbld. >> another well known man who made the courageous decision to go public with his own sexually was nba player jason colens. jason, it is good to see you. >> good to see you. how are you doing? >> doing well, thank you. what was your reaction when you saw what tim cook had to say yesterday? >> very supportive. i was very excited for him that he wrote that. he approached it from a business angle, as well. i think it is still in 29 states in this country you can be fired just for being a member of the lgbt community. it is important for business leaders or all leaders in society to live their authentic
life and encourage others to do the same. >> what do you think the significance of it is given mr. cook's stature and apple's place in the global community. >> he is a true legend, a true leader. apple, i have an iphone. most everyone i know has an apple product of some sort. and for the leader of the company, the ceo to come out and say that being gay is something that he is very proud of, something that has helped him appreciate what it's like to be in the minority and respect and have acceptance for others, again encouraging people to live their life and not be afraid to i think is very important. i'm very proud of him for doing that. >> you are in central park, as we said, of course, because the marathon will be held this
weekend. the nba is doing something new. why don't you tell us about it. >> the nba is putting together a relay team to run in the new york marathon. adam silver, our commissioner, another great leader is going to start us off. he is running the first three miles of the relay for us. my part will be in brooklyn. and we are really stressing living a healthy lifestyle as part of the nba fit. i'm wearing the sweatshirt right now. it is going to be a little bit cold which is why i'm wearing a sweatshirt right now and probably again on sunday. i live in los angeles normally. on sunday i think the high is supposed to be in the upper 40s. it will be a little bit of an adjustment for me. i am really looking forward to having fun and participating in the marathon. >> i see 24 people on this list. it sounds like you are getting off easy here. >> you know what, some of those
guys, though, i don't know exactly if they can still run. bernard king, nba legend. i think it is probably bone on bone in his knees right now and his ability to whatever he is going to run it will be fun to participate. i think it is important for kids, for all people to see regardless of your age just a bunch of nba personalities getting out there and participating. again, we are also trying to raise awareness for nba all star weekend here in new york in february. it will be the first time ever at the barclays center in brooklyn, generating excitement fort t that, as well. >> good luck this weekend. coming up, if you haven't noticed it has been quite a scary scene on set today and it is about to get even worse. haunted trades are next. plus looking back to the best moments from a busy week.
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another week gone by here on the haunted halftime show. there are incredible moments you may have missed. >> i'm ready to like set you and david maybe for an ice cream and talk about micron now. >> you set it up. i'm in for the ice cream. >> the price point had went through the roof. >> our best trade, of course, was the redskins upsetting the cowboys last night on monday night football. >> we had a good night with the skins last gh choked up at that win last night. today's theme, zombie stocks. we decided to zom biify one of our own. our intern arrived looking like
a healthy normal human being. with a little handy work, there it is, this is what she looks like now. >> i would swipe on that. >> instead of final trades we are going to do haunted trades. >> i couldn't even face it so i had to wear my mask. >> what is the trade? >> this one has haunted me all the way down and now it is a $2 stock. i have not bought it and i probably will stay away from this one. >> mike? >> whole foods is a name that really haunted me. i watched this stock go from 64 down to 52 where i bought it and now it is trading down south of 40. i think it is going to rally. right now it is haunting me big time. >> i own this thing in the play book. it is awful.
>> why do you still have it? >> mostly because i like to be right and i don't like -- i am going to do something with it. >> beazer down 26%. that says it all. it is an absolute haunted trade for me. >> that does it for us. have a great weekend. "power lunch" begins right now. "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start right now. thank you very much. see that? these are japanese characters and that's how you say or spell thank you in japanese. that is what the bulls are saying to japan's central bank today because the bank of japan surprised the markets and launched their own version of quantitative easing today. that is lifting stocks here in the united states. the dow broke an intraday high today up 1% right now. the nasdaq broke a 14.5 y