tv Street Signs CNBC December 22, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
under the same pressure. steve miller said today we have to do something because prices have become unsustainable. back to you. >> thank you very much. that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." >> "street signs" starts right now. >> we'll see you tomorrow. > . >> oil and gas falling again. wait until you hear what one big oil player says he is ready to do with prices. welcome to "street signs." much more oil and interviews from texas finally running. whether your home is likely to be worth more next year. >> the dow is nicely high but the s&p is flat. as the santa claus rally starts this wednesday a santa rally in each of the past six years. less than 100 points away from the dow. take a look at the s&p energy sector. indexes up there currently moving lower after surging
nearly 10% last week. >> the oil slide now appears to be creeping into natural gas, as well. nat gas slammed today. it is down nearly 10% trading at its lowest level since february of last year. you have record production so more supply and mild weather, less demand for the drop. nat gas names are getting hit for the year down more than 30%. this would be good news because most houses and electrical plants are fired by natural gas. this is extra money in our pocket. a little more change coming our way. >> which brings me to 85 cents, ow much gas prices have shed. on average you pay $2.39 a gallon, the lowest in five years and down for the 88th day in a row. that is the longest streak on record. watch that pump because it could get cheaper. digging in its heels and indicates it could actually
increase. >> kind of unbelievable comments. why don't we dig in more on what the saudi said and bring in michelle caruso-cabrera. saudi arabia appears to be quiet for so long is reminding the world that they carry a big oil stick. >> he said it now three times. we are not going to cut production. did you hear me? we are not going to cut production. and now even a possible increase in production. i think it makes sense. opec is supposed to be a cartel. that is what -- i joke that is what the c stands for. you are not much of a cartel if there are two other huge producers in the world, the united states and russia cht you can no longer control price. why should they be the only ones who give up volume? and then by giving up volume what do they do? they maintain u.s. production at higher levels. >> it goes one step further blaming non-opec members for
decline. it is not all our fault. it is really their fault. >> the new producers. fault is a strong word. is it because of them? yeah, absolutely. we are producing more. there is more supply. what happens when there is more supply? >> if demand doesn't go up you have an imbalance and prices come down. we were in the bakkan two weeks ago, midland yesterday. they all said this is not a complicated story. there is more oil than we use. that's it. >> the demand is going down. it's so very basic. so we are all shocked because the saudis have always been the ones who are willing to cut. this time around they see the numbers. they get nothing out of it. >> it is blow after blow for russia, as well. they are saying the oil trading business for morgan stanley it is off. regulators nixed it. what do we do from here? >> this i am told is definitely
because of the political situation that has erupted because of ukraine. it is the state-owned oil company supposed to buy this oil trading business from morgan stanley. this had been in the works before a lot of sanctions went into effect. looked like the deal was going to go through and then this morning for some reason they couldn't get clearance and on the background we are being told this is somehow related. >> you cannot overestimate or overstate the importance of oil to russia. at these levels russian gdp could fall by 40%. there is a growing chance -- it's high. there is a growing chance that russia will have difficulty meeting debt obligations. >> so they have a big pile of cash reserves and they have to make hard choices. >> which is not only declining on a daily basis but the value of that cash -- the last couple of days they try to defend the ruble but it is way down. >> if you are talking about the
sovereign debt they have enough. they have state owned enterprises. when you add all of that up together there isn't enough money in their reserves if oil stays this low. >> talking to ruble crisis we are seeing bailout of trust bank in russia. >> the central bank said we are going to give 30 million rubles. it is worth a half a billion dollars in order to help out this bank and then they bring in state owned bank that will be the ultimate owner of the remaining assets. do you know who is the spokesperson for this trust bank in russia? >> no. >> bruce willis. >> bruce willis? >> yes. >> sth spokesperson for russian banks? >> the face of this russian bank. >> he is the face. >> if you go to the website he is all over it. too bad we don't have the video
ready. i'm sorry. he looks great. >> calling his agents about that endorsement -- >> remember pulp fiction zed's dead? he stole the motorcycle, you can say the ruble is dead, baby. i have a prediction to make. michelle caruso-cabrera will be landing in moscow within two months time. >> we have been trying. it is tough getting a visa. on friday i was on the ground in midland, texas trying to learn more about the real impact of the oil drop. we spoke with several oil guys working in and around the basin including david arrington and mickey car guile. these guys grew up in midland and lived around the oil and gas industry their entire life and seen boom and bust cycle over and over again. i asked him what his company is doing in response to the huge drop in crude oil prices. listen to this.
>> right now we are having to wait and see attitude. however, we are spending a lot of time looking at our drilling costs. so we are having discussions with our vendors and we need for our economics to work on our prospects. we need our vendors to come down between 25% and 50%. >> 25% and 50%. >> depending on the vendor. we are seeing evidence of that already in december. >> so literally all of the -- we talked about how in some rigs there is more than 100 different companies involved in an individual rig. you are asking many of these companies and independent contractors i need you, i will use you but you have to lower your rate a lot. >> we want to keep our rigs running. our prospects and my prospects particularly and a lot of other independents that i know, we have good prospects that will work. they are very economic at these prices if our costs can come down. not if they -- if they stay where they are we will have to lay the rigs down.
>> so the full interview will be on cnbc.com. david runs his own company. i thought that was unbelievable. he is asking for and in some cases receiving 25% to 50% price cuts across every service provider. the one thing i learned on the ground there, there are more than 100 different companies associated end to end with drilling to pumping oil rigs. >> you said something earlier offline that was really interesting. that is when you were speaking to a number of the people in midland, texas, these are people who have perhaps been through many boom and busts so it might be more realistic about it as opposed to the bakkan in north dakota where maybe they are a bit optimistic. >> no knock on anybody in the bakkan. they haven't lived three five,
six, seven, eight cycles. you ask these people in midland and what do you think about oil prices at these levels and they say it stinks. most of them didn't use that word but we have been there before. things will get leaner and we will go on. but you wonder why these oil stocks are down as much? service. that can trickle through everything. real estate, housing, banks, you name it. >> absolutely. let's get back to the stock market. there are only six trading days left in the year. so is it time to maybe dip in or get out? we will have your end of the year play book ahead. crunch time for retail. who is going to win this holiday? you have to stick around to find out. "street signs" will be right back. (vo) watching. waiting. for that moment, where right place meets right time. and when i find it- i go for it.
(announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. and you'll see just how much it has to offer, especially if you're thinking of moving an old 401(k) to a fidelity ira. it gives you a wide range of investment options... and the free help you need to make sure your investments fit your goals -- and what you're really investing for. tap into the full power of your fidelity green line. call today and we'll make it easy to move that old 401(k) to a fidelity rollover ira.
let's get you up to date. the dow is up by triple digits, high up by 118. the s&p trading above record closing high. both dow and s&p have been up for four straight days now. let's get to our market report. bob pisani, the official start of the so-called santa claus rally is actually this wednesday. history is on our side. >> we are up 1.5% on the santa claus rally. this one is really good.
last five days of the year, trading days and first two trading days of the new year, last 60, 70 years led to 1.5% gain on the s&p on average. today oil down 2%. nat gas down 7% means ugly day for any kind of exploration and production name out there, chesapea chesapeake, nabors, particularly anything with a gassy end to it so to speak. a lot of people say bob it's cheap. shouldn't i buy oil stocks? here is the problem. the earnings estimates have collapsed. look at this. maybe $4 next year. it is an $80 stock. close to 20 here. meantime people say why is the dow outperforming so much today? because old school tech is doing
well. ibm had a four-year low the other day. intel and cisco had great years overall. >> thank you very much. what a year it has been for technology stocks. the nasdaq set to end this year with the fifth double digit percentage gain in seven years. let's get to bertha coombs. >> still hasn't taken out the all-time high but getting a lot closer. if you look at big caps that is where you have seen some big moves. nasdaq 100 up nearly 20% for the year. interestingly the big leaders include chips. no surprise there. they are usually among the big leaders. mobile chips in particular and xp. also two coffee makers or two caffeine makers, if you will. green mountain coffee and monster beverage. maybe that says something about silicon valley. chips and caffeines power.
the best have been bio techs today down hard because of the big decline in gilead. taking aim at pricing on the hep c drugs and now they fire the final shot at the end of the year and not include them in the formula. meg terrell will have more on that later. when you look at gilead this stock hit an all-time high back on october 31. it is down nearly 20% from there almost in bear market territory. a lot of analysts say they will recover from this and will not lose all business on the hep c franchise. certainly this is something that has investors taking pause. overall bio techs have been the best performers this year up about 30%. some of the big winners are in rare diseases, also in genetic sequencing, testing. that is where it is.
come back out live. small caps which were the big leaders hit an all-time high in july are now finally positive again for the year. it has been very volatile in those sectors. bio techs and small caps. small caps have a ways to go to catch up. back to you. >> thank you very much. do appreciate it. it is not just technology. even the dow has been rocking lately. it is up 4% in just one trading week. so should you take this end of year rally to sell or dip in a little bit deeper? charlie from arial investors. charlie, what are you advising your clients to do? >> to not try to time the market. you are going to lose money if you try to come in and out. you will have a hard time doing that. the right strategy is to be buying what others are selling and selling what others are buying. right now the market overall is in a range of fairness but starting to get to the high end of that range.
in a scale of one to ten i would say we are 6.5%. >> your modeling is saying things are changing. change is afoot. change for the better or worse? >> we have a number of things that give us sort of readings on a monthly kind of basis. those are both models that are starting to show that we are not quite as solidly bullish as we had been. a little more risk in the market. the environment is not quite as clearly bullish as it had been. we are getting a little worried. to charlie's point we think along the same types of lines. right now we are about 16 times expected earnings. we book end that with maybe at the end of the year 15 times and low end. that means the market could fall 8% to 10% next year. if you can get to 20 times earnings that gives you another 22% for the s&p here. that is a reach but within the
realm of possibility. that for us is a book end for 2015. >> when you say maybe fall about 8% over the course of the year or early on which may be a buying opportunity for those missing the rally. >> there is no question at some point during the year we have at least a down period of 8% or 10%. it is almost inevitable every year. what happens when we do this interview on december 22, 2015 what are we looking at? i think probably bias to the upside. if you get the animal spirits running pretty high you could get another 20% year. >> let's say you believe what mike said that maybe the market will drop 8% to 12%. don't time it. but if i can put my money someplace else for six months to a year, wait for the decline that may come and go back in wouldn't that be a good strategy or do you disagree? >> what all the studies show is people try to do that and when the market drops they get more
scared. it is very hard to pull a trigger when the market is down 8%. we had this opportunity when the market backed up 9.5%. most people went bearish. so our strategy would be stay pretty much fully invested. if you are going to keep money on the sidelines keep it in cash because you will get hurt in fixed income. it is very hard to time commodity. >> what would both of you do with energy stocks? i mentioned earlier on that big gain, big bottom fishing going on. barren says you can buy quality stocks in names like chevron, eog, get in while they are cheap. what would you be doing? >> we try to buy when others are selling. no doubt they have been selling for the last month. they are clearly out of favor. long term i believe the demand for oil and natural gas is higher five years from now than now. production costs are higher. therefore i think the price is
going to be up long term. there is no doubt in the short term it is hard to predict what some saudi minister is going to do. >> you buying energy stocks? >> i mean, my day job is a large cap value manager. when you are looking at the valueuations we have here in terms of how much of the companies are valued relative to how much oil is in the ground. so really if you can hold your nose and buy some of these things, start to accumulate. our approach has been increase the quality of the holdings if you got stuck with lousy ones or some things that do great when oil is at 100 and not so great when oil is at 60 you can upgrade to quality. you are getting very good valuations here. i agree with charlie. it's a difficult game because, again, if something happens you can see oil go down to $40 and that's not going to make these stocks -- >> the word quality is
subjective. if oil goes down to 40 what may be quality today may not be quality then. that's the hard part. it is easy to say buy a quality stock. tell me what that is. >> it is about leverage. it's not that hard. most of these smaller companies are -- a lot of them are leveraged up. they make money and break evens are much, much higher. if you get stuck in those you see those down 60%, 70%. it is a question to upgrade quality and go to names that are much more stable and will be able to survive. >> good discussion. we appreciate it. thank you very much. gas and oil aren't the only things falling today. we learned that existing home sales are down to a six-month low. is it just a hiccup for housing or something bigger. how black berry is taking a page right out of inspector gadget's play book minus that annoying dog. "street signs" will be back
right after this. e one for you. and cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any allergic reactions like rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. i have the worst cold with this runni better take something. dayquill cold and flu doesn't treat your runny nose. seriously? alka-seltzer plus cold and cough fights your worst cold symptoms plus your runny nose. oh, what a relief it is.
having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second... boom! you've had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and... boom! you're blindsided for a second time. they won't give you enough money to replace your brand new car. don't those people know you're already shaken up? liberty mutual's new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch to liberty mutual insurance and you could save up to $423 dollars. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance.
gained over 220% since marissa mayer took over as ceo in 2012. >> it has come a long way. the best performing stock in the s&p 500 right now is priceline.com. i know you were wondering about that so i brought it to you. a little extra content. existing home sales falling to the lowest level in six months in november, but take a look at this chart from the national association of realtors. our levels, you can see, have come well off lows. however, we are still well off the highs back in the housing frenzy of 2006. tim joining us now. tim, what are your expectations for housing next year? >> well, i'll tell you i decided i'm calling 2014 a push. there is really no winners or losers. it is like 1% up or down. looking at 2015 i think it is
more of the same. think about housing in this one proxy. so in 2013 things were going gangbusters. we were really moving. rates up 4.5%. that was enough to chill the housing market up through 2014. that shows you you have a tentative recovery. you start seeing the economy rebound and incomes pick up you should see a lot of upward pressure. >> what are we seeing in terms of investor demand? it is sort of a push and pull. on the one hand a lot of foreclosures brings in investors with suitcases of cash. it means the investors sort of disappear. >> that is exactly right. what you are seeing is low inventory. typically low inventory is a good thing because it generally means a lot of demand. right now low inventory because there isn't a lot of demand. investors easy money made. you are not seeing institutional
investors coming in after 20% run up in housing prices. you can't buy what is not for sale. about half as much foreclosure inventory as this time last year. that coupled with the first-time home buyers either in their parents' basement or in some urban area with friends is not creating a lot of demand on the organic side. >> i met a guy last night that his family owns a home in chevy chase, maryland. every two or three months getting a letter under the door, would you sell your home? here is my price and it is a high number. >> the inventory out there, the reason there isn't demand, it's not that impressive. you are seeing properties that really don't have the right amenities. >> that is my point. so what are sellers waiting for? >> they have no place to go. i think that is part of the problem. that inventory feeds on itself. the inventory problem.
there aren't a lot of opportunities for the move up buyer to go. the only way to move up is if they can sell their current property. the ones that have a nice property in a good location is still selling within 30 days. you are going to see that is an anomaly but not a norm for the market as a whole. >> are you the person putting the letter under the door? >> if i thought it could work, sure. problem is you are seeing crazy settlements that happen today. you are not really going to drive -- part of the problem when you don't have demand is you need lenders to create demand through product development. >> but product development is fine. stupid loans are not fine. >> fortunately most of the stupid loans are legislated away. you can't do them if you are crazy enough to try to do them. >> i hear radio ads that make me nervous. >> a lot of radio ads. we are going to leave it there.
>> take the cash out of your home. you are hearing radio ads like that again. it makes you a little nervous. >> a couple of bad quarters in the mortgage business people do crazy things. >> thank you, tim. it is the busiest day of the year for ups. so will their stock deliver? we will be talking numbers ahead. >> and don draper getting a big upgrade today. sort of. we will explain that rather weird statement when "street signs" returns. oh what fun it is to ride. get the mercedes-benz on your wish list at the winter event going on now - but hurry, the offer ends december 31st. [ho, ho, ho!] lease the 2015 c300 4matic for $419 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.
the stock coming off news. the price per patient will be about $12,500 per month which bristol-myers told me it is trading down about a fraction of a percent. this comes about three months ahead of the drug's expected approval date of the fda. the price is similar to a similar drug. so a little good news coming as sort of an early holiday present. >> did you say $12,500 a month? >> that's right.
>> $150,000 per year? >> that's along the same lines of other cancer drugs this year especially in the same class. >> you're going to be back a little later on to talk about another expensive drug. is my math right on that? $150,000 a year right? >> yep. >> 144 plus the 500. there you go. long division. we have also got a developing story in a case that could bring down obamacare. we just learned the supreme court will hear the case of king versus burrwell on march 4 of this coming year. this is the case that really challenges the very legality of the federal obamacare subsidies in states served only by healthcare.gov and not a statewide exchange. that is the case in about two-thirds of america. a ruling blocking those subsidies could damage severely
or some say kill obamacare. that's just out. it will be heard. >> developing story. let's take another look at oil because it settled down nearly $2 there which equates to just over 3%. we are sitting at 55.31. the saudi comments that they really -- they are either going to keep output unchanged or increase output if they have customer demand. that is a very bearish signal. something we do every time this day is street talk, hitting analyst calls. first is amc and time warner. >> this is why we made the draper reference. amc networks and "mad men." both stocks with an outperform rating. $75 target on amc. 19% upside and $99 target on time warner. 16% upside seen there by pacific
crest. >> this is the old paint business. initiated twice today. >> analysts are coming up with ratings. this is on jeff gordon's nascar car. started with a buy. 20% upside. goldman with a neutral. . >> and green capital reiterating as a buy. >> stock is doing well up 3% to 16.47. boosting estimates and price target. price target is now an even $20 about 20% upside from here. >> this is the under the radar name of the day. it is horton works. >> do you hear -- there is something called hadoop. it is software that helps move big data around computers. i'm sure i got that completely wrong but that is the most that i can understand about what horton works does. anybody who works there, let me know if i got that right or
wrong. starting with an outperform and $30 target. 25% upside. you can see it is long hadoop. whatever that is. >> whatever language. >> it is a real thing. >> it is a made-up language. >> no. it is a computer thing. >> don't annoy me, i'm hadooping. >> you should do that every day for good health. let's move on to fed ex. >> price target raised to $195. $2 price target up 22% year to date. why didn't we end on under the radar. >> we move on to "talking numbers." there is rhyme and reason to the madness. >> we will talk fed ex. >> we are talking ups. >> competitor. todd gordon is on the technic technicals.
mark lictenfield. todd, we start with you. ups, buy, sell, hold? >> buy and ties in quite well to fed ex. what has given ups a big boost is of course the oil. oil dropping has given ups a boost. as we pull up the chart you can see we have done something tricky. i have taken oil and flipped it upside down. as the blue line which is crude oil's move up that leads to cheapening oil. you can see that ups has moved higher. so then as we flip to the next chart we have done something that ties in well which is ups and fed ex ratio. what we do is we look at who is actually stronger by dividing one by the other. the orange line is moving higher ups is outpacing fed ex at the top side. we get a little push above 111.70. i will be looking to put that trade on today. >> what about ups from your point of view?
the fundamental point of view? can you compare it against fed ex for us? >> i think it's important to discern between the company and the stock. i am less enthusiastic about the stock. it is clearly the best in breed in its industry with highest margins and earnings and deserves to trade at a premium. the problem is the stock trades at a premium. it's long term earnings growth at the top of the range of guidance is only about 13%. you are trading at two times growth. it's also expensive. 16 times cash flow, 18 times book. i'm having a hard time seeing an opportunity for multiple expansion here. i think if the market continues to trade well ups probably goes along with it. i don't see opportunity for outperformance comparing to fed ex. even though it is kind of the second best in the industry i think there is a better
opportunity for multiple expansion with fed ex than ups. >> from the fundamental point of view. you can check out the online edition. >> if north korea was behind the sony hack, what, if anything is the appropriate american response? >> tough question. >> sony is still trying to figure out a way to release the movie. everyone wants to see it more. will it see the light of day? julia boorstin has answers. stay with us. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say, a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪
and a... good morning! new aleve pm. for a better am. black berry teaming up with boeing on a super secure android phone. the companies are being very secretive about it. reports say it has a solar powered charger and bio metric censors. the coolest part apparently is that it will delete all user data in case of tampering. >> that is not the only news on black berry. analysts reacting to the
earnings report from friday. there are negative reports from analysts. they see continued cash burn and think they might need to break up. they rated under perform and on the flip side td securities actually upgraded to a buy. it was after the third quarter surprise. >> exact opposite conclusion. >> that shows you the visibility. that's perfect in the visibility of the company which is zero. they are looking at the same stuff and have an entirely different conclusion. >> julia boorstin is here. >> we are talking sony now. sony trying to figure out how to get its movie out to the public after pulling it from theaters. julia boorstin, is the only way to get this out for everybody to just like show it all at once? >> well, people are saying, my sources are telling me that is the best way to do it. if you are going to distribute it online there are a couple of risks there.
that site could get even more attacks from hackers. that could be bad in terms of releasing personal information and could be bad in that hackers could take down the website. a number of people said the best way to distribute would be across platforms. it would be much harder to attack that. >> you saw the movie. >> i did. >> i wouldn't admit that. >> was it good? >> i thought it was funny. i am not the target audience for the movie. >> what is the target audience? >> probably men age 18 to 34. i haven't seen all of the other movies. it was offensive if you are the north korean government but it was clearly satire, very much over the top. >> can the north korean regime be offended? >> well, that's a whole other issue. >> that may be a question for amin. >> the question is how they get
it out there. sony does a site crackle but that is ad supported. they would like a video on demand service, somebody to sell or rent for payment the film. itunes, netflix, hulu all giving us no comment. >> my guess is tomorrow you will be doing sony, as well. >> the story that just doesn't end. >> keeps on giving. president obama says that the sony hack by north korea is not an act of war. north korea says it will attack if the u.s. retaliates. what kind of response if any might we expect? let's bring in amin javers. >> we are looking at reports in the "new york times" citing reports. no indication what was causing that. the "new york times" reporting
attack on the sites. the north koreans don't have a lot on the internet but have some ip addresses. i asked a spokesperson about this. she e-mailed back we don't have new announcements on north korea today. that brings up sort of the central dilemma for the united states in responding to this. you have two opportunities to respond. you can respond in a covert way through a cyber attack that the u.s. doesn't acknowledge or respond in an overt fashion in a way that you do acknowledge publically. the problem with a covert response sthat it doesn't do what you need it to do in terms of the world's view of the united states. it doesn't send a message that there is a deterrent effect here. the rest of the world doesn't see it by the nature of it being overt. analysts telling me probably a mix of covert response and some overt response for the world to
see and for u.s. messaging purposes to be out there saying we are responding to this and anybody else who tries an attack similar to this is going to get this kind of reaction. >> got a breaking news alert with dominic chu. >> what we have here is s&p taking credit ratings moves on some european oil and gas giants. first of all, they have affirmed the aa rating of royal dutch shell but they revised their outlook to negative. they have affirmed the double a minus rating for the french oil giant but also revised their outlook to negative. they have affirmed the a rating on british giant bp while revising that outlook to negative and then placed the italian oil and gas giant on credit watch with negative implications and bg energy holdings. five different european oil and gas firms with negative outlooks
attached from s&p. the reason why is dramatic deterioration in oil price outlooks and led that to take a number of ratings actions against these majors. very big names in european oil and gas getting credit watch revised downward because of a slump in oil prices. >> a little jab at barrens. shell was one of them. looks cheap. now s&p is saying maybe it looks cheap for a reason. >> it was chevron, shell. >> those five. >> s&p disagrees. the last shopping weekend before christmas just wrapped up. which retail stocks are looking like winners and which like losers? >> and we are going to look beyond this week. 25 years into the future. what will the u.s. consumer look like in 2039? >> older. >> older.
>> hopefully not in a year. [woman] can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? [girl] can it tell the doctor how long i have to wear this thing? [man] can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver?
2015 but next 25 years and today we are looking at the future of the consumer? who will the consume ber in 2040? sarah, i have you have some thoughts. >> a question companies are trying to answer and position for and i have three charts to tell the story of the american consumer in 25 years. first, they will be older. 62% of the population is 18 through 64. 15% is older than 65. look what happens in 25 years. there will be fewer in that 18 through 64 demographic because 21% will be older than 65. and further, looking at the share of the population above 85, that doubles in 25 years. boomers are aging and the birthrate in this country is going down. it will be a growing hispanic population, as well. 62% of the population is white. in 25 years that will drop to 51%. hispanics now make up about 18% of the u.s. population.
in 25 years it will be a quarter of the u.s. growing numbers. while immigration is a hot button issue, the driver behind that growing population, more births here in the united states. if you're looking for the immigration story, that's actually the growth in asian americans emigrating to the u.s. those numbers are set to also increase. the average worker will earn less. labor income will not go back to the 1980s share of growth because of factors like globalization and technology. job growth will be centered at the lower end of the income spectrum. jobs that kate tore an aging population like home health aides. of the almost 51 million jobs that we'll create between 2012 and 2022, 21 million or about 42% will be in the low wage earning category. 18 through $28,000 and the lack of expected economic growth is the backdrop.
we won't see growth ratess 70s, 80s, 90s because of the recession damage and it's more important than ever a coca-cola, an mcdonald's have the charts memorized to target the new consumer because they cannot rely on that booming economy. brian and mandy? >> all right. sarah, thank you very much. excellent stuff all day, by the way. all right. still didn't find that perfect christmas gift this weekend for all of you procrastinators, you have full shopping days left. so with that mind, take a look at winners and losers stock-wise so far this holiday season. joe feldman, joe, you probably did channel checks, mall and maybe shopping yourself. >> that's right. >> who's looking good? >> well, you know, some of the jewelry, handbags, accessories, the electronic retailers have done quite well so it seems and they have looked good. they have had good traffic. people kind of centered around
their stores and the department stores. but the side that's not been so great is still the kind of specialty apparel retailers like teen retailers in the mall. that's where you have seen some bitter pressure lately. >> let's get more micro then. tell us about individual stocks. potential winners of accessories, handbags but the coach, michael kors, you know, they essentially do similar things but different stocks. so which ones do you like within the realm of what you have been talking about? >> right. well, you know, fast fashion is an area like h&m we like and macy's. best buy i think is having a good season so far. we started off with a pretty good black friday weekend and continued. i think, you know, kors is okay. i think kate spade, we have seen more traffic around the store. coach is challenged but, you
know, those -- that type of product has been selling at the department stores so it's a little hard to read sometimes exactly how well they're doing. >> so really, joe, is there anything macro to garner so far from what we have seen? people say it's a spectacular season because of low gas prices. are we tracking that way? >> spectacular might be a little bit of a stretch but we think it's an okay season. and we have seen, you know, e-commerce trends have been good and that's hard thing to track. right? because all the traditional retailers selling goods online, you know, you really don't know unless you've been buying from them. but it's really hard to walk in to best guy and know how much is sold on. that should help to drive some sales higher this holiday season. >> thank you very much, joe. >> thank you. >> by the way on the issue of which retailers to benefit of
lower gas prices, children's place, foot locker, finish line, skullcandy. there's a skullcandy this weekend for my kids. >> and they named banks that could be on trouble. >> yes. stay with us because we're going to get one final check of the market. oil down big today and the dow creeping towards 18,000. >> on a serious note, want to remember joe cocker. he died today at the age of 70. legendary musician and we'll leave you with this song.
dow up. great to have you back. welcome back from texas, brian. >> thank you very much. "closing bell" is next. and welcome to "the closing bell" on this monday. a holiday week. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange where last week's rally carried over into today. >> for most sectors. the dow is strong. don't look now but the industrial average within striking distance of the all-time high and others did not follow through. yeah, the s&p up 4 points. and then the nasdaq up 7. when you look at did gains today, it really is a lot of dow