tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC December 31, 2014 4:00am-6:01am EST
hello, good morning and a particularly warm welcome from the final "worldwide exchange" of the year. u.s. markets take the lead in 2014, significantly outperforming their european peers as the dollar surged and a route took place in oil markets. the obama administration allows exporters opening america's shale industry to global markets. the pboc says the need to stay flexible with monetary policy with the latest chinese data
shows factory activity contracted in december. indonesian rescuers believe they've found the missing airasia jet after detecting a large object under the java sea. this as the first victims' bodies are recovered. >> well, welcome to the show. let's update you on markets. most markets closing at mid day in europe. we're going to end on lower gains. the euro stoxx 50 up 0. 234%. yesterday was a risk off day with the stoxx 600 as a whole declining. today, a little bit of gains. the ftse 100 up 0.2%.
france off 0.5% and italy in the green. germany is closed, as i mentioned earlier. bonds have been of interest this week. bonds buying following that greek vote earlier in the week leading to a bit of risk off sentiment. that included the u.s., which started the week around 2.25% is going to end the weekend and the yooir year just below the 2.2% handle. the uk french yield at 0.82%. of interest yesterday, not only the german bond yield touching 0. 0 55%, a record low, but the italian and spanish yields hit all-time lows. greece has moved in the opposite direction in the last couple of days, spiking to around 9.5% on the ten-year. let's look at forex in this rel ofly uneventful day. low volumes. almost all of those major pairs
pretty much flat. looks like the yen paring with the dollar is going to end just below that 1.20 handle for the year. the story, of course, for the year in forex markets has been the u.s. dollar's strong rally. . as you can see, around about 12% returns against a basket of five major currencies. that's going to be the strongest return for the broader dollar index in nine years, particularly coming in the second half of the year as well as risk sentiment picking up and the dollar safe haven coming into play. let's review what european markets have done for the year as a whole. of course, still transfer a little bit of movement. if ever you wanted to see a set of figures that that don't tell the full story, this is a good example. a little bit of green, a little bit of red, but, of course, that does not tell the full story. it's not been quite as volatile as 2011 or 2012 in europe. but nonetheless, the european growth has certainly come to the borders and political risks has
been inflation fears. even at times, fir flagzs with the euro itself. the ftse 100, surprisingly, the laggard. you're saying it has the best outlook of all of these economies. indeed, it does. it has suffered from a number of political uncertainties as we head into the election next year. a high waiting for energy stocks. indeed, the one difference it has compared to the others, it faces tightening. germany, absolutely flat for the year. it was at the start of year europe's strong economy. but at the turn of q3 and q4, came into the focus. they have recovered, but nonetheless, that has when he would germany from performing any better. france has high unemployment.
it has underperformance germany. and italy of the per rhode island nations is the one we show. greece a few green shoots. italy is still trugelling to pass some reforms that might allow it to progress. but the big thing is will we get quantitative easing at the start of next year from mario draghi. let's look at asian markets for the year. all of these have now closed. the biggest thing to begin with is this extraordinary divergence between the shanghai a market and the hong kong h market. 50% difference which is really astonishing. you could say yes, it's been the shanghai/hong kong stock connect. very odd divergent performance.
perhaps that could unwind as we go into the second half of the year. in the lead up to & modi welcoming his reform agenda. the second half performance has not been as good as the first half of the year, but nonetheless, a very good performance. the election has been welcomed by investors. both of these two countries benefiting from the fall in the oil prices. india is a bigger exporter than indonesia. something that has been welcomed by investors. japan in focus. a 7% return doesn't tell the full story. it was negative for most of the year and has only started to perform as abe turned on the taps again and that extraordinary negative correlation between the yen and
the nikkei has pushed the nikkei up by 7%. a big rival in exports in japan and korea has suffered. interesting that australia only returning 1%. thailand, returning 50%. that hides that they've been some political trouble. both the political upriding that we had back in may hiding by the 15% returns in the market. let's kick off again in china by talking to our guests, ahead of emerging market research at commerce bank. to kick off things, what has it been given that extraordinary return for the h-share market in
particular? >> although we have seen lower growth rates, we're looking for 6.5% in china. nonetheless, it remains a high growth area in the whole world, basically. >> why has it outperformed so much in the h-shares market? is it simply led by the high leverage retailers in china? >> it's a combination of both things. we're in a period where we're going into capital market liberalization in china. as we see the monetary policy move in that direction, official moves in that direction, we'll see all kinds of shenanigans and all kinds of moves in the market in china. >> if we look at the equity markets, are you positivive relative to consensus for china's growth outlook for 2015?
>> ultimately, it depends on what the government does and the potential. you focused particularly on the philippines and indonesia. why those countries in particular? >> it's background. we're looking at disinflation out of china. so these countries are the ones that need lower inflation. they need to import lower xhosty prices. they're in the process of restructuring their economies. india and indonesia went to the mandate from the young elections and the mandate was reform the country. that's why it's very positive for these countries just at the right time.
>> will 2015 be a good year for the philippines? >> i think so. you've had the low base effects that have been playing in. i think we'll get into this leveling in of the high growth rates. 10% of gdp is -- for some people. filipinos living at broad staying at home. >> and the philippine sess a net lender of the u.s. dollar. >> absolutely. >> so when people talk about similarities today with the asian crisis, all are smaller, the philippine sess probably the most protected. >> very true. >> simon, we're going to move on now to russia 37 protests erupted in moscow following the conviction of russian opposition
leader alexei navalny. europe and the u.s. condemned the verdict saying the decision is part of a disturbing trend. let's look in at what russian markets have done, not just recently, but over the year as a whole. the ruble highlighting its move today to the down side by about 35% but, of course, 77% of it has moved over the course of the year. most of that coming in the last, as well. >> interestingly, at the start, the ruble started to steadily decline. but as the ruble decline became more of a route, fears in general about russia's future led the micex and it's going to finish the year in the red by
around about 7%. simon, is this something to be concerned about? >> it's not a big thing for president putin at the moment. the biggest concern for him is the economy, where the ruble has been moving and obviously the lower oil prices. this is something that is shaking markets up generally. but i don't think it's overly worrying in the short-term. >> it does seem astonishing that his approval ratings are still so high. how long does that persist before it xhangs? >> i would think in the six to nine months, this will start into the livelyhood of every rush i can't tell until local
economy. then we'll start to see these ratings diminish over the next 6 to 9 months. >> what gives you confidence it can rebound? >> it's a challenge, admittedly. but the thing is, we have about 10%, 11% debt to gdp public sector in russia. the central bank has $400 billion of fx reserves. they maybe need at the extreme about $100 billion over the next 12 months. and the other thing is that the assumption is, in our view or my view personally that over the next 3206 months, we'll see a stabilization of eastern ukraine. if it does, then we have a problem not only in russia, but in western europe given the exposure of the bavrngs. >> is it the oil price
recovering or is it sanctions being relaxed? >> the main thing at the moment is the oil price. that's why you've seen this volatility in the last one week. now we're at five-year lows in the oil price and that is where we've seen the volatility. eats not normal. but we've seen this in the last one to two months. russia goes on holiday today. markets reopen at the end of january. hopefully some calm in the next week. >> thanks for now. you stay with us through the next break. still to come on the show, how quickly 2014 has flown by. we'll take a look at new york's times square getting ready for the celebration. as we head into the break, wilbur ross, we ask him what he's looking for in 2015. >> my 2015 wish is a functional
year ahead to be a bumpy ride. why? geoff cutmore joins us on set. andrew chief, asset straft gist and eric wilson from unicredit. geoff began by asking about the 3.5% growth for 2015 was such a bad figure. >> it's the long-term average, but the long-term average included recession periods. i think the main issue is we are now at very low inflation, so it's very dangerous. we might flip into deflation if something goes wrong out there. it's shocking if you're at 3.2, 3.5% growth, it's very easy to see things going wrong. >> so the what you do with asset prices at this point. if joakim is right, then we're going to the moon with central banks that judge the system with liquidity.
>> you have a 2015 that's going to see better growth than 2014, yet you'll still have central banks that we think rightly are more afraid of a deflationary tale scenario. i think that combination will push equity credits higher and spreads higher. >> so when william dudley tells us in an exclusive interview with steve liesman that it's reasonable to expect a 2015 rate hike, is he just plain wrong? >> well, you know, our view is that the fed will not hike rates until the first quarter of 2016. we think there a couple of reasons for that. one is the strong dollar is tightening financial conditions that traditionally rate rises would do. i think you also have, as joakim mentioned, see central bankers
feeling they want to err on the side of caution. the risks of moving later are small in relation to the risks of moving too soon. so it certainly could happen earlier, but our core view, our baseline, is that it happens in the first quarter of 2016, a little later than markets expect. >> dudley is quite known as one of the more dovish members, now he even comes out and says it's mid year. if you're right, what do you think about the exchange rates? most people have said, this is a story when the fed starts mid year, the japanese and europeans are in full swing the other way, so it's a big dollar appreciation story. where do you come down on that, then? >> we still think it's a dollar appreciation story. i think we would still have the fed hiking throughout 2016, still ending rates at the end of 2016 in kind of a -- over close to 2%. so that is still i think a back drop that i think markets will
look at the stronger u.s. economy, higher u.s. treasury rates, much higher u.s. treasury rates relative to boone or jgbs. and i think that will still be enough to lend the dollar support. >> so dudley says we may hike the middle of next year, but that's based on current expectations. their growth expectations have been too optimistic and we think given our low inflation story that u.s. inflation will stay very low for longer so the fed can be patient. >> do you not buy into some of the fundamental story that if you have low inflation for a long time, it's -- to consumers. sernl on our numbers, the increase in real income, there's no similar story apart from that slow grinding wand. i share your view on the growth
path, but i would have spun it in a more optimistic way. it's money in the hands of consumers. >> low inflation is good for consumers, unless they have a lot of debt. and i think the problem particularly in europe is there's a lot of debt out there. so if you pay a fixed nominal interest rates and inflation is lower than you expect it, you pay a higher interest rate, right? the burden of the debt increases. so low inflation is good but sometimes there's too much of a good thing. >> what does that mean for the ecb, then? the market is increasingly coming to the view. >> the ecb i think is still very reluctant to go to qe in sovereign bonds. they will try efrlg before they do it because of the resistance to this kind of qe from the german public. but it's a political issue. this is why we think that there
is a 50/50 chance the markets go to qe. >> and still with me here is simon, the head of em research at commerzbank. the stronger dollar environment and rising yields in the u.s., that's pretty bad for emerging markets as a whole, isn't it? >> i think the difference this time around is that we'll get to see more of the two-year u.s. treasury pick up, rather than the ten-year, which was a big issue in 2013 when bernanke announced the whole tapering issue. from that point of view, it's not going to be too much for emerging markets to deal with. >> but i suppose you get risk off sentiment if you can get a 4% or 5% yield in the u.s. which may be the case next year. why would you bother only getting a small pick up in some of the emerging market yield?
>> if we do get 4% or 5% in the ten-year, we're going to have a real problem with emerging markets. we're a bit more bullish or hawkish on the fed outlook. generally, emerging markets can look at the 2 and a half percent on the ten-year. >> when the ruble started to sell off, it was a couple of the worst days earlier in december, we did see the malaysian ringett, the rupiah sell off, as well. it suggests some people do fear a financial crisis-type situation. is it different from that today? >> it is very different. at the time, russia had about 50% public sector debt to gdp ratio. in general, emerging markets have fallen much more, whereas developed markets have
increased. this is the main problem with developed markets. greece with its huge debt burden. the eurozone with its debt burden. if you compare, you're way below that 40% total em debt to gdp, whether it was in developed markets, it's over 100% now. >> greece, however, over the last couple of days, has been suggesting it's country specific. the euro has hardly moved at all. you think there are more ton tajus risks than the markets take that? >> the risk is quite substantial. clearly with the ecb in place and prepared to do anything to 3rek9 the eurozone, things are changed quickly.
they have huge debt. we're all going to have to take a risk. the high debt to gdp ratio in developed markets are something that's going to paralyze growth in the next few years. there are a few exceptions out there, including russia, brazil and south africa. the risk of seeing sovereign investment grade is the biggest risk in 2015. but otherwise, in general, em is prepared than they were a few years ago. >> simon, what's your biggest call in emerging markets? >> i think we would like to look at it by region. in asia, we go for india, indonesia, possibly to a certain extent thailand.. more safe haven, if you like, mexico, which is highly exposed to the united states. 80% of exports in the united states.
and in the states, we like turkey very much and the central eastern three european countries. in other words, poland, hungary and also romania. >> simon, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. >> and a very happy new year to you, as well. >> you, too. >> that was simon quijano-evans from commerzbank. as we head into the end of the year, we spoke to the ceo of the nasdaq and ask him what he's wishing for in 2015. >> my 2015 wish is obviously for peace and prosperity. also, i would like to see the u.s. government solve our issues with respect to immigration reform and tax reform.
>> indonesian rescuers believe thief found the wreck of the missing air asia jet after detecting a large object under the java sea. this as the first of the victims' bodies are recovered. let's have a look at back at some of the performing markets of the year. the dow jones returning just under 10%. the s&p just over 12.5% and the nasdaq the best performer of the u.s. industries at 14.4%. the tech industry has performed well across the board. microsoft apple and google performing well and the big name, of course, this year was alibaba. listing in the second half of the year, but listing on the new york stock exchange, not the nasdaq. as you can see, all three major
indices performing well and all three major indices performing steadily well throughout the course of the year, which wasn't necessarily the case with some of the other good performers elsewhere in the world. let's look now on to the stocks 600 in europe which does have the ability to change its performance, because some of the european prmpers are still open for half a day today. thus far, it is up 2% for the year. in contrast, much more volatile throughout the year with a number of big sell-offs. this was following a strong year in 2013 for european equities. we should bear that in mind. that should carry on in about may or june time. negativity about the outlook of the european economy started to come to the fore. only when that was offset with talk of more easing from ecb president mario draghi did we see the index start to perform again. as we dive into those individual markets, the ftse 100 surprisingly a laggard finishing the year, likely to finish the
year around 2.7% in the red. it does have the best economic outlook of the developed markets in europe, but has been weighed down by a heavy energy rating, which has been affected by the pull in the oil price and some political uncertainty ahead of the election next year. it also doesn't have the prospect for more qe where it's lickly to see rates move up next year. that's your equity performance. germany up about 2.6% for the year, fractionally down. let's look at the u.s. dollar index for the year, which is set to end the year for the strongest performance in nine years, returning, as you can see, 12.2%. quite an astonishing rise. this as we get a basket of currencies. it's not just one individual pair. the prospects of the smaller current account deficit with less oil imports and, of course, its safe haven status and its economic recovery has led the u.s. dollar to continue to rise with structural arguments with the strong u.s. dollar certainly remain necessary place for 2015.
the question is whether it has risen a bit too far already. that question applies to the euro/dollar. in fact, probably applies more so than any other pair, perhaps alongside the yen paring, as well. as you can see, the euro really started to weakness in the second half of the year as it became clear that significantly more easing was needed, more balance sheet expansion from the ecb in order to get the economy back on track. we've had significant measures like rate cuts, abs and covered bonds and indeed the peltros. that is expected next year. the currency that has moved the most is the ruble, haven't had weakness throughout the second half of the year. down 78%, down indeed another 6% today. moves well over 2% has become the norm in the last few months. sanctions started things as did the weaker oil price and the oil
price route that we have seen over the last couple of weeks has really taken a hit throughout december on the ruble. as i said, oil price has affected the ruble and this is why, because it has been in free fall since june, down some 48.6% this year. it's down another 1.6% so far today. now, moving on, indonesia's search and rescue agency has confirmed that it's found a large, dark object under the java sea which it believes this is the missing airasia jet. it has been confirmed the bodies of four men and three women have been recovered. cnbc's filed this report earlier. >> the indonesian search and rescue agency has suggested the plane has been found. it was 30 or 40 meters under water sitting on the bottom of the java sea. rescuers have recovered luggage
and bodies. the plane disappearing from radar screens on sunday with 162 passengers on board. now, a number of bodies have been recovered from the waters off the coast, but no survivors have been found. indonesia's search and rescue agency has said one of those bodies recovered was wearing a life jacket. indonesian authorities are collecting dna samples from the families of the missing passengers to help identify those found. airasia's ceo tone near fernandez has described the crash as his worst nightmare and says he takes full responsibility. >> i apologize profusely for what they're going through. i am the leader of this country and i have to take responsibility. that is why i am here. >> the indonesian president says airasia will pay an immediate advance of money to the relatives of the passengers of those on the missing plan. in terms of what happened,
investigators say it's too early to draw definitive conclusions about the cause of the crash. the black box has not yet been recovered and experts say it will take some months to piece together the events of sunday morning. back to you. this year, it was a thank you note a day. last year, it was meeting new people. in 2011, it was only eating animals who killed themselves. facebook's mark zuckerberg is keeping us all in expense when it comes to his new year's resolution for 2016. getting ready to ring in the new year is sara davos. she's in new york's times square. good morning to you, sara. >> good morning. a very cold morning. temperatures today expected to hover in the mid 20s. getting into the 30s, but overall, it's going to be a very chilly night for the million plus people who are going to pack times square to ring in 2015. another billion people expected
to watch it on tv and their mobile devices. of course, a party like this does not happen without a lot of planning and a lot of preparation. that includes replacing some of the panels on that iconic waterford crystal ball. also includes a confetti test dropped. that was performed earlier this weekend and went off without a hitch. tonight, artists like taylor swift and george line are expected to perform. new york's mayor alongside members of the international rescue committee are planning to push that button that is going to start the ball's dissent. once it reaches the bottom, a ton of confetti is going to rain down on the crowd here. people who are hoping to volunteer to help toss some of that confetti out are in for a bit of a disappointment. organizers say their confetti master -- believe it or not, that is a job -- has it all covered this year. back to you. >> sara, thank you very much for that. as we get very close to new year, we want to know what is
your new year's resolution? we've already heard from robert who tweeted in to say enjoy life every day and never take the for granted. and he also said thank you for keeping investors updated every day. thank you to you, robert. what a lovely new year's resolution. when it comes to me, i was listening to mark zuckerberg and i would love to say learn a new language, but mandarin is out of the question. i think even improving my pitch in french is out of the question. why don't you help us out. e-mail us, firstname.lastname@example.org or get in touch by twitter @cnbcwex or direct to me. now, he has been dubbed the karl marx of our era. french economist thomas piggerty is the author of "capital in the 21st century." he spoke to the author about the trajectory for global
inequality. >> something in the 1980s, we have been back, economy to a regime of below growth which naturally we stand to return to its situation which we already had prior to world war i whereas the rate of return to capital tends to be -- than the growth rate of the economy. and this tends to push a pretty large consumption of growth. this means the share of national, what is going to the meter class and to the society tends to. and it's right now. >> there's a lot of argument we're seeing rise.
>> the 26-year period is at the top -- of the world have been rising about three times as fast as the size of the world economy. so, you know, if this continues, this means that the share of world wealth going to the very top is going to rise possibly to eye level. so, you know, at some point, of course, it will have to stop. but, you know, i don't know. i think it's a problem, per se. i'm not saying i know exactly, you know, what is going to be, should show a rate of return on large wealth portfolios sxp what's going to be the world rate. to believe that relying on natural processes is going to be enough to keep us from becoming,
you know, world -- distribution of wealth. actually, even in china they are now something about in producing some form of wealth tax. and certainly, you know, in north america and in europe, you know, we -- where we are strongly attached to the rule of flow, you know, the progress perspective is a better way to regulate the dynamics of french concentration. also, to produce no financial from currency and no democratic transparency about world dynamics. moving on, still to come up on the show, crude prices are down a whooping 50% from june's highs, but it may not be all doom and gloom according to our next guest. the outlook is set to improve. find out what else he's predicting after the break. as we head to the end of the
seema mody spoke to the chief sustainability officer about the impact of climate change on their respective companies. >> our customers want to live a more sustainable life at home, but they want it to be easy, affordable and attractive. we have a long-term business. by keeping it around 60 years, we would like to be around another 60 years. we look at major extra at this time teejic issues like climate change and say how do we make our operations completely sustainability? we've been innovating with products, health and reduce energy. we've started selling soelter panels here until the uk, the netherlands, and help customers turn their rooms in the power stations. and looking at the big material
impacts of business. so obviously energy is one. so do you want to be tethers through the grid to glorified power stations when carbon is going to get increasingly priced when you know it's a problem for the planet or can you invest in renewables? we committed about $1.5 billion, $2 billion. now our home furnishing business owns and operates wind farms around the world and operates about 700,000 solar panels which install or rooms. this is great for business. it's a good, long-term investment. it's really good for risk management. obviously, it's fantastic. >> and i want to bring in neal dinah. why don't you trillion me how bp is embracing the concept of being green. >> sure. this goes right to the heart of the process. the focus has been around for 160 years. it's the power of communications to make a better world. and this is all with the goal to
create sustainability long-term revenue growth. and your viewerses are obviously aware of our plans in the mobile space, but our recent move into tv and sports broadcasting in particular. but really, looking at how -- as a network, how all of that is getting much more energy intensive our ability to decouple the price of that and the carbon impact of that bill is becoming a major source of competitive advantage. and increasingly, as our customers, the biggest multi national companies in the world as well as just homes here in the uk are looking to technology to help them make smarter, more efficient decisions. it's going part of the overall business that is helping people basically do more with less. >> do you think your shareholders take notice of the fact that you do have these initiatives that are focused on being green and sustainable as well as eco friendly. is that something they would consider when investing or looking at your companies, do
you think 12347 absolutely. 60% of our investors are looking at a move away. a potentially responsible investment. and they've really, i think, taken note of the need to move this way to an esg agenda. so it's not too much about compliance. that's still important. but it's really about are you integrating this into the core of your strategy, are you using this as a competitive advantage, way toni know excavate, differentiate from the competition. and the differences like ikea and business coalitions that are increasingly exhibiting an ability to do that are being rewarded by having that superior investor confidence and are able to kind of do, you know, differentiated things on the back of that support. >> steve, i also had a question from the customer's perspective. is there interesting in buying eco friendly products and are they paying a premium for those products? >> i think premium is a swear
word, an idea. what we found, yes, for people who are worried about getting the kids to school, paying the bills, about life at work, after those issues, then people are really concerned about issues like climate change and the future of the planet. but solutions need to be easy, affordable and attractive. you think about the first eco friendly products there were, the cfl was the first efficient light bulbs, takes five minutes to come on and you look kind of green underneath them. now we have great l.e.d.s. we save you energy, which pay themselves in four, five, six months for the last 20 years. we can be back on this program in 20 years time with the same light source and energy. the stock index in -- has
slipped further into the rid on the back of the news of abdulaziz al adub has been hospitalized. brent down 2.3% on the day. a fresh low since may 2009. so if we thought the recent slide was over, perhaps it has just started up again. maybe on low volume today, but nonetheless, declining significantly more. joining us now, jason gannah. jason, let's tick off some of the reasons for the decline. over the last couple of months, since that november opec meeting, we've been focusing on supply issues. but you also think demand has been a big factor. >> absolutery, it has. and we've had the weakest demand growth since the reception largely due to china's economy shifting from an investment driven to consumer driven economy. europe's demand has been incredibly weak.
i wouldn't sell short the supply situation, though. this is the highest nonopec supply growth that we've seen in 2014. >> on the supply side, there's been the u.s. gain in production. we did hear overnight that the u.s. is going to free up a little bit more for exports. does that change things at the margin or not significantly? >> i think it actually, on the margin, is a more bearish outlook for the brent oil price. it means more u.s. barrels can flow into the global market. but i do think that the correction, we'll probably see more in the back half of the year, has been weighed by the low prices of wti we see right now and the pullback we'll see in investments. >> and the other factor, of course, is a cause that some people -- the lower oil prices. and i don't know if this is a cause and effect that is the change in the u.s. dollar and the correlations we see in risk assets globally and whether that's been the course for weak oil. what's your view on that? >> i think it has been a contributory cause although not the primary one.
generally speaking, i don't think that the dollar in oil prices have to correlate strongly, but since the middle of the year, we've seen over 90% correlation between the two. so the strong dollar is likely to continue and likely to be an impediment to oil prices. >> and the immediate volatility that we saw particularly in the first couple of weeks of december have appear to have settled today might suggest otherwise. as we go into 2015, what's your base case? >> i think we see an event like the renewal, not stimulate price upside. it means that the market is still bearish. i think we'll continue to test new lows into the first quarter of the year because the market is very amply supplied and not oversupp oversupplied. >> what is the best stock to play a still oil price next year? >> i think royal dutch shell would be the most sensitive name in the entire oil sector simply because they have, by far, the most financial flexibility between being able to cover their capital expenditures down
to very low oil prices and the strength of the balance sheet. >> and they have a more constructive view on the oil price. what are the best ways to play a stronger oil price next year? >> we also would have a constructive year over a st-month period. bg would be our top pick in the sector for that longer period of time. they're going through a major inflexion in their cap cycle right now. just got the first o&g cargo load loaded. >> chevron would be our top pick in the u.s. it's a similar story to bg where we're seeing a big inflexion of the cap cycle. push that further into about mid 2015 about we start to see their big australian o&g products start to kick into production. that will be a huge cash generator. >> 12-month view as the oil price recovers. have a look at rev ron and bp. >> absolutely. >> thank you so much for joining us and happy new year to you. >> thank you. 2014 has been a treacherous year for consumers paying with
debit or credit cards at bank u.s. retailers. there have been numerous data breaches over the past 12 months. courtney reagan looks at how safe your personal information is at checkout time. >> well, it is that time of year when credit card bills are higher than normal. so, too, are the vulnerabilities at checkout. target confirmed its massive data breach 12 months ago. since the beginning of this year, there have been as many as 20 publicly reported retail breaches. home depot, neiman marcus, michael's, k-mart, bebe and two weeks ago staples are among the retailers that have confirmed breaches impacting at least a portion of the store fleet in 2014. retailers impacted by 24% of all data breaches, second only to financial services. why do the breaches k50e7 happening? unfortunately there are a number of reasons. first, payment system res multi layered with many players from
the software developers to the hardware providers to the payment processes, banks and retailers themselves. plus, hackers are often one of more steps haedz of the technology. it's hard to test for every possible unknown weak point in any payment system, especially the new ones. omni channel retail opens up even more data opportunities for data flow to be intercepted. retailers are doing what they can. many are adding high level cyber experts to their staff. that even is far from a panacea. while no one wants to be a victim of a breach, many viewers expressed concern, but not enough to deter them from using debit and credit cards at
checkout. sticking with the subject of retail, apple ipad sales are expected to decline for the first time in the tablet' histories. that is according to new research from ibi. see what else the findings show on our email@example.com. >> european markets are up just a little bit. 0.3% in this much reduced day of trade. the cac 40 leading the charge up 0.5. coming up next on "worldwide exchang exchange", a seller year for u.s. equities. our next guest thinks the buying opportunities are outside of the united states. stay with us to hear.
hello, good morning. i'm wilfred frost. let's geoff you some headlines. u.s. markets take the lead, significantly outperforming their european peers as the dollar surged in a route took place in the oil markets. the obama administration allows the export of some domestically produced oil. the pboc says there's a need to stay flexible with the monetary policy as the latest
data shows contracted in december. understand nearan rescuers believe they found the wreck of the missing airplane after detecting an object under the java sea. let's have a look in at u.s. futures which, as you can see, are point to go a positive open. we're expecting about 6 points up to the southbound southbound, the dow to open up about 42 points in the green and the nasdaq expected to open up about 8.5 points. europe looks like it's going to finish just about in the green for the year. from today. up about 0.3% on the stoxx 600. much reduced trade. the ftse 100 is up 0.25%. germany is closed today for a
full day. france is up 0.5% in italy. you had some significant bond buying in europe, which has spread also to the u.s. over the last couple of days. 2.17%, the yield on the u.s. ten-year. this bond buying did stem from the uncertainty. we've seen record lows in spain and italy on the last couple of days, which has seen lows on the uk 1.75 and 0.83 on the ten-year in france. forex, haven't had too much to talk about today. the biggest stories in the markets has been the strong u.s. dollar. over the course of the year, it's up 12% over the course of the year. particularly strong rally during the second half of 2014..
and that 12% return is going to be the strongest return for the dollar index in nine years. let's look at the european markets for the course of the year. a chance to move around a little bit in the next couple of hours, but in general, this tells the story of the whole year. a bit of green, a bit of red, but nothing too much to talk about. not quite as much volatility as 2011 and 2012. we have serious concerns about europe's growth outlook. at times, looking at the individual nkts, the ftse 100 down 2.7%, which a surprise given the uk has the best economic outlook amongsted the best developed european nations. the oil price route has hurt it. it doesn't have the prospect for quantitative easing next year.
it had its own concerns about the future of its economic outlook, flirting with recession as we turn from q3 to q4. it hasn't been the stellar performer in europe as it has been in the past years. france, struggling to pass reforms, high unemployment and, of course, issues with threats from the far right in the country. down 0.64% for the year. a lot rests of the ability of renzi to pass reforms next year. let's look in on the performance of asia in 2014. the first thing to point to is this extraordinary die verge yins. the hong kong h-share market is up only 1.2%.
50% die verge yins. most of that coming in q4. during that q4 period, hong kong had its own issues with the ride. nonetheless, the die verge yins is extraordinary and it's very rare for the market to be trading at a premium to the h-share market. the second best performer in asia this year was india, up 29.9%. a bill a lot of outperformance came both before the election and immediately after. understand near ya up 22%. both of them actually benefiting from the lower oil price, not just because they're net importers of oil, but because they're able to use the weak oil price to pass reforms and remove energy subsidies.
japan up 7% to the end of the year. it was negative towards the end of the year. as abe turned on the liquidity tax again, the yen weakened and the stock market rose, finishing 7% in the green. that finishes this year down 5%. thailand management to eek out 15% gains. and australia, only 1% n green despite a strong performance from shanghai in the green. joining us now from new york is daniel morris, global investment strategist at tia cres. good morning and thank you very much for joining us. >> my pleasure. the chinese performance over the last three months, extraordinary. 52% returns to the year.
is that based on growth or is it driven by temporary stimp use husband? >> probably more temporary stim use husband. foreign investors is what we tend to concentrate on. valuations seem attract i. a lot of that is is concentrated in the banks and there there's probably going to be more challenges ahead. they're expecting an increase if mottest and nonperforming loans. the opportunities are very mixed and always the concerns with the chinese market. about half of it is essentially controlled by the government, not necessarily managed for the foreign shareholders. >> a lot of people pretty negative on the outlook for emerging markets. but overall, do you think emerging markets are relatively cheap? >> that's just it. the valuations, you have to make
a lot of differentiation between the sectors. the multiple for the whole index looks better. if you break it down for the region, you see for eastern europe and latin america, not a big discount there. you do see the discount in asia. however, that's china and the discount you have in china is primarily the financial. outside of the chinese financial sector, it's not clooes clear. >> outside of it, you're pretty positive on japan, which is surprising to people. >> a lot of people have drawn parallels between what happened in japan and europe. a key difference for us is you're seeing now a consensus within japan, both in the political class and within the population, that things need to
change. it's been 20 years with practically no growth, 1% growth, realizing that they have to do something different. that is what abe is trying to do. we think they're moving in the right direct with the right type of energy and we think shly that will pay dividends. you don't see resistance for reform and change. you see that in italy. it's difficult to be optimistic. we think things are looking up in japan. >> and do you see any sustained issues in europe stemming from the greek elections coming up? >> unfortunately, no. certainly things are quite different than they were in 201 1. greece doesn't represent the fixed incomes of equities in i more. now the emerging market index. there's not much impact that could be had on the assets that retail investors hold, number one. and then number two, we have
stronger defends now thanks to the kre b. we think there's not going to be that much change in government policy. if there is, we think it will be contained to greece and not threaten the eurozone. >> we're going to talk more about the u.s. after the break. on the topic of the u.s., let's give you a rundown of what to expect this trading day. we get weekly jobless claims, they're forecast to rise. at 10:00 a.m., we get december chicago pmi. a surprising amount of data. still to come on the show, the countdown to 2015 begins. we'll check in on the preparations for the iconic times square new year's eve preparations. and we speak to the ceo allen and ask him what he's wishing for in 2015.
let's take a look at today's other top stories. the obama administration will allow more exports of ultra light oil. the move offers some relief to domestic producers who have been hurt by plunging oil prices. that has been lightly processed while others are still waiting for that approval. within the past hour, brent has taken a tumble falling to its lowest level since may 2009. it's down 2.5% add 56.44. wti is at 53.28, down 1.5%. venezuela is confirming the country fell into recession this year with the economy shrinking in all of the first three quarters of the year. the government blames political opponents who protested for several months for damaging the economy.
saudi state tv has reported the king has been admitted to the hospital. the 90 years has long suffered from poor health. the stock index has split further back on the news. still to come on the show, we'll be talking forex with our next expert who is feeling optimistic about the new year. he sees 2015 kicking off with a roll. and as we head to the end of the year, we spoke to shark tank's costart damon john and asked him what he's wishing for in 2015. >> my wish list for 2015, more green technology. i want want financial intelligent in schools for kids to learn at an early age. and kevin o'leary needs to stop offering royalty deals.
market. the broader stoxx 600 is up by 0.3%. markets are similarly traded today in closing early. thus far, the ftse 100 is up by 0.7%. france is up 0.5% and spain is flat. let's look at bonds. we've seen quite a lot of bond buying over the last couple of days. germany, in fact, hit 0.55% yesterday. we've had record lows in both spain and italy in the last couple of days. the ten-year treasury hit 2.17%. the uk is finishing the year about 1.75% on the ten-year note. this year it was a thank you note a day. last year it was meeting new people and in 2007 it was only eating animals he killed himself. mark zuckerberg is keeping us in
suspend regarding his resolution for 2015. sara is live at times square in new york ahead of the new year's celebration. good morning to you, sara. >> good morning, wilfred. it is going to away huge party down here later tonight with temperatures expected in the mid 20s. thankfully, folks are going to have about a million of their closest friends to snuggle up to to keep warm with an additional billion people watching on tv. a party of this side doesn't happen without a lot of planning and preparation. so far, that has included replacing some of the panels on that iconic waterford crystal ball. is also included a test confetti drop. you're going to see new york's mayor alongside members of the international rescue committee push the button to start the
ball's descent. more than a ton of confetti is going to rain down on the crowd. that is the responsibility of one person called the confetti master, believe it or not that is a job. security is going to be very tight. they're going to have ratation detectors to scan the crowd. they will have plain clothed police officers checking the crowd. they are removing all trash receptac receptacles. as we expect a million people to decent on this area. it's going to look very different in just a few hours. >> thank you very much and a very happy new year to you, as well. and given that we are just hours away from the start of 2015, we want to know what is your new year's resolution? get in touch with us by e-mail
or via twitter. my personal handle is there, too. now, 20145 has been the year for vie vergence. plus we've seen a massive surge in the u.s. dollar. we're going to go back to daniel morris in new york who is global investment strategist. to talk more about markets, we've touched on some of the markets outside the u.s. already. let's now talk about the u.s. abuse the dow is set for its sixth straight annual gain. the s&p and nasdaq are set for their third year of gains. has this equity bull market run in the u.s. gone on too long already? >> i don't think it's necessarily gone on too long. you have to think about what was the driver of that. we started from march 2009 with very low valuations and that discount now has shly been
evaporated. the question from here is how is the u.s. going to do relative to other markets, particularly other developed markets. we're looking for modest appreciate in the u.s. even if we see good mcgrowth in the u.s., the market reflect that's. valuations in the u.s. at best fair value if not a bit above. if you look at europe, japan, prospect for improvement in growth, improvement in margins. we think that will drive outperformance. >> and how important is the inflation number in the u.s.? also just for the number whole see on the nominal returns for risk assets next year. >> well, exactly. i think the phrase normal has been used in a lot of different
ways. with lower inflation, you have lower nominal gdp growth and that's lower knoll yam returns in assets. with maybe 3% or so gdp growth, less than 2% inflation, that's maybe 5% nominal growth. historically for asset class returns, we're going to get less than that. they're going to have to get used to possibly negative returns for a lot of investment assets as we move particularly in the u.s. to a rising interest rate environment. >> when we look back to 2014 as a whole, very strong returns in the equity markets. both seconds have been bid up strongly. at the same time, quantitative easing has ended.
surely one of those two asset classes is due a major correction early in next year. >> absolutely. i think the ka numb dumb has been the falling yields. the u.s. treasury market probably to a degree greater than for the u.s. equity market is it really is a global asset class. about had a of u.s. treasuries are held by non-u.s. investors. if you look at the share of the treasury index, in 2007, it was 35%. now it's 65%. if you want to buy a aaa sovereign asset, you don't have as much choice as you used to have. you've had some countries that have been downgraded. you have less supply coming out of germany. they're starting to run a surplus. what is happening global is reflected in u.s. treasury prices. it's really the fact that it
hasn't been as robust than the rest of the world. >> thank you very much for joining us today and a very happy new year to you. >> thank you. now, indonesia's search and rescue agency has confirmed it has found a large, dark object in the java sea which it believes it has the airasia jet. now, we know the rescuers have already discovered debris from that area, including luggage and plane door. bad weather has been hampering the search effort. the plane disappeared from radar screens on sunday with 152 passengers on board. a number of bodies have been
rofd off the coast of bornea, but one of those bodies recovered was wearing a life jacket. indonesian authorities are collecting dna samples from the families of the missing passengers to help identify those found. air asia's ceo has described the crash as his worst nightmare and says he takes full responsibility. >> i apologize profusely for what they're going through. i am the leader of this company and i take responsibility. that is why i am here. >> the indonesian president says air asia will pay an immediate advance of money to the relatives of the passengers from the plane and says his priority is finding the bodies. in terms of what happens, investigators say it's too early to draw conclusions about the crash. the black box has not been recovered and lit take months to piece together the events of sunday morning. back to you.the.
minutes of "worldwide exchange" in 20 sh. i'm wilfred frost. here are your headlines. u.s. markets significantly outperform their european fears. this has a dollar surge and a route takes place in the oil market. brent crude heads further south today, hitting the lowest levels since 1989 as the oh bam in administration allows the export of some domestically produced oil. the pboc says there's a need to stay flexible with monetary policy as data shows contraction in december. and indonesian rescuers believe they have found the wreckage of the airasia jet after detecting a large object in the java sea. >> you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. and welcome to "worldwide exchange." let's have a look at u.s. futures. we're expecting a bounce back today, a positive open.
the s&p expected to he six points, the do i up 46 points and the nasdaq expected to open up just over 10 points which should confirm a nice finish for u.s. markets both in december, both in q4 and for the year as a whole. let's look in on the u.s. markets. reduced volumes, of course, across the globe. the euro/dollar is going to finish the year around 1.2156. the yen is at 1.9944. just a couple of weeks ago, it came back quite sharply and it looks like it's going to settle just below 1.20 for the year. still a very weak year for the yen. the aussie/dollar, strength at the end of the year, 0.1898 and sterling is finishing at 1.55, around about that area. let's look at the broader dollar index has a whole. a basket of currency gained 12.14% across the year.
a lot of that coming in the second half of the year. that is the best returned for the broader index over the last nine years as a whole. let's talk a bit more about forex markets. boris is joining us now. good morning to you. thank you very much for joining us. >> good morning. good to be with you. >> let's talk about that structural case for the u.s. dollar. it seems a lot factors now are just as strong as they were at the start of the year. >> i think the king dollar thee still stay necessary place. i think we're all just ip crestbly complacent at this point. the one key variable that made me sit up and take notice was not a currency situation, but what was happening in the equity markets. that is a very, very ominous
sign. i'm old enough to remember the times when margins climbed that high. i think the story with the dollar could be very uneven this year. a steele steep sell-off could focus to the downside, especially if ecb goes ahead with qe. i don't think it's going to be a universal pro story. the market at this point i think is far too complacent about. >> let's talk about those individual payers, particularly where there's not likely to be easing on the other side. >> okay. >> the yen did have a bit of a correction, which might have been the start of a different -- perhaps that is suggesting, like you were saying, that both the euro and the yen, there's still significant downside for those currencies. >> there is. although, i'll tell you, i think
some of the more savvy market traders are probably even 1.2r5 for the yen. the yen is notorious for doing a staircase up and elevator down move on a very deep correction that shakes out a lot of complacent longs. given that, though, the other thing that's interesting is if you take this assumption that equities correct, let's say we go to a 10% correction in equities, that's going to put the fed into a free zone. it's going to completely shut down the idea of fed normalizing monetary policy for the time being. i think there are some risks in the scenario here to the full on king/dollar story as we go into the front of the year here. >> let's talk about the euro/dollar in a bit more details. the prospects for more easing is there. surely the germans aren't going
to just let it happen. in which case we could see the euro snap back. >> i think the opposite happens here. i think the nap greek election is the tip of the iceberg in periphery europe. this is an enormous amount of frustration to shake the region out of recession. i think what's going to happen at this point is germans are going to be pushed aside. draghi is known for making cart the maic and surprising gestures to the market. i don't think it's out of the question for us in the beginning of the year they may anoens some sort of a qe measure. they want to make sure they can get the eurozone economy stimulated. at this point, the germans are losing that battle at the table. >> is that because mario graggy chooses to ignore them?
>> i think he chooses to ignore them. the germans are fighting a high rear guard action trying to appreciate the ceb from doing buying. draghi is basically saying it's our job to create inflation. we have a mandate. he's basically trying to stay to the monetary mandate of the ecb by creating qe. and i think there is enough support support here for them to move forward. they have to do something at this point because the mrig and economic situation is going to become tenuous. i think draghi realizes that. i think the germans are a little too slow at this point to appreciate what's happening in the periphery at this point. at this point, the argument for austerity has lost a lot of its value and the germans are losing
a lot of their power at the ceb table. >> for now, let's take a look at the other top stories. the obama administration will allow more exports offering relief to domestic producers. a hand full of companies have received approval and others are still waiting similar formal approval. within the past hour, brent has taken a tumble falling to its lowest lifl since may 2009. down 2.6% on the day. wti is at 53.25, down 1.6% today. venezuela is confirming the country fell into reception this year with the economy slippinging into all quarters of the year. the government mrams political opponents who protested for several months. points say this is a result of socialist parties by hugo
chavez. saudi tv is reporting king abdullah has been admitted to the hospital. the 90 years has long suffered from poor health. the stock index has flipped further into the red, down about 4% so far today. as we head into the end of the year, we spoke to billionaire whim bur ross and asked him what he's wishing for in 2014. >> my 2015 wish is a functional u.s. congress. >> steady and sustained growth in the united states and around the world. >> peace, prosperity and hope everyone is on the ride side of the stock market.
boib. investors await the final u.s. open of the year. the route in oil continues this morning as brent crude hits its lowest level since may 2009 and the chinese central bank emphasizes the need for policy following weak manufacturing data. it was just a few weeks ago that one u.s. billionaire said he was happy to have his divorce case behind him. landon dowdy is at cnbc hq with
all the details. wilfred, good morning to you. harold hamm was ordered to pay his ex-wife $1 billion in the divorce last month. at the time, he called the ruling fair and equity whitble. but a lot has changed since then. due to the drop in oil prices, hamm is now saying the settlement is inet whitble. the former mrs. hamm, now going by her maiden name, is appealing the settlement saying it short changes the contributions she has made to continental during their 26-queer marriage. a former attorney at the company, she was part of several issues. harold hamm's wealth is tied up in continental with pioneer production in north dakota. he has a 60% stake in the company which went public in 2007. h amm's decision making during
their marriage led to a big surgery in continental stock. when the settlement was announced, continental was trading at $24 per share. but then then, it's fallen by a third. that cut hamm's personal fortune in half. the couple's divorce has dragged on for more than two years and has already cost tens of millions of dollars. hamm is arguing the recently plunge in oil prices shows just how much continental is tied to market forces beyond his control. continental has claimed the case will have no impact on its business. but they will need to borrow money to fund the divorce payments. wilfred, happy new year. back to you. >> happy new near to you, and thank you for that final update of 2014. we have been asking viewers if
they have any great resolutions for 2014. how about you? >> besides the cliche go to the gym more, i have to say i hope to check something off the bucket list. how about you? >> one of the more boring ones is to try to watch a few less box sets and read a little bit more. but i'm more one for lent resolutions because i think 40 days is much more achievable than a whole year. >> it's a more reasonable goal. >> absolutely. thank you very much and happy new year to you. >> thank you. moving on, new york city parking tickets have soared over the last year. it's never nice to get a parking ticket, particularly when the fines go up so high. the city is considering letting people use apple pay, bitcoin to let people pay more easily. fast food chains aren't
exactly known for their healthy menu options, but white cal castle has rolled out this, the veggie slider, a mini burger made can karats, spin ach, and it looks dreadful, i think. white castle, made popular by a cult classic movie says the veggie sliders got rave reviews in taste tests. still to come on the show, the preparations are on for tonight's celebrations. we are live in sometimes square after the break.
year, the u.s. outperforming significantly. the s&p up 12.5%. the stoxx 600 up and brent crude down 49%. this off another 2.5% day, fresh lows since may 2009. let's look at european market this morning, just in case they can eek out some catch up with the u.s. there's only a couple of hours left of shorten i trade. italy is down 0.6%. let's look at u.s. futures, likely to eek out more gains so far today. the dow suggesting we're going to open up about 14 points, the nasdaq has opened just above 10 points up for the day. now, the snapchat is a stock that has been in the news this year and it plans to shore up a global view of new year's eve.
it will edit together photos of viewers celebrations all over the world. after 24 hours, the content will disappear just like the confetti. this year, it was a thank you note a day. last year it was meeting new people and in 2011, it was only eating animals he had killed himself. mark zuckerberg is keeping us all in sis expense when it comes to his new year's resolution for 2014. all we know is he is unlikely to disappoint. getting ready to ripping in the new year is sara davon live in new york with preparations. good morning. a million people expected to pack here in to times square. another billion to watch it on
their mobile devices. it has included a test confesty drop which went off without any problems. scheduled to take the stage later tonight are taylor twis along with other great performers and new york city's mayor along with the members of the international rescue committee are going to push the button to start the ball's disebt. the responsibility of the nice confetti master. believe it or not, that is a job. and security here is expected to be very tight. authorities have received no specific threats, but they are on high alert. that will include raid aleation detectors and plain clothes supports mingling with the crowd
to he sure everyone has a nice, safe time ushering in the new year. let's bring in boris who is managing director at bk asset management. earlier on, we were talking about the lakely hood the u.s. dollar would continue to rise. i wonder with that in mind whether the easiest thing to do next year is to play the volatility. >> i think so. the other day i said the only thing i'm certain about is that volatility is going to continue. certainly, you know, we're at very elevated levels in the equity markets. we could have some correct there, as well. even if the fed moves towards normalization, the rise in interest rates itself is going to crazy massive volatility across other asset classes. i think the safest bet in the world is probably going to be
long volatility. we're going to see some tesch ewe lens in 2015. >> which is the currency of choice for carry trades? i wonder as rates start to rise in the u.s., whether that will cease to be the case and if the euro or the yen start to be the funding currency. at that particular be a factor that keeps them from falling too far. >> yeah. i think the euro could be the funding currency of choice. they're already very close to rates. the twis franc has negative rates and yet it continues to strengthen based on safe haven harper flows, especially from russia. i would say euro would be a very good candidate for a fundling currency of choice on a carry strayed. and you could see the commodity
currencies outperformance the euro greatly because of the spread if it continues the way we think it will in the next year. >> what are going to be the key factors that drive the u.s. markets given that we're not expecting any serious new from the fed until the second half of the year? >> i think the jobs picture and more importantly the wage picture within the u.s. is critical. if we have another good jobs report and this is the first thing we're starting to see. as wages accelerate, that is going to give the markets a lot more confidence the fed is going to normalize policy. so those are the absolute key metrics that the market is going to be looking for.
>> boar it's, before i let you go, have you got any great new year's resolution? >> my resolution is to stay humble and to recognize when i'm wrong quickly. i think that's going to be my resolution for 2015. >> that's my resolution every day and i usually fail. i hope you can do a better job than i do. that question that i just asked boris b we've been asking you throughout the show. one viewer has got in touch by twitter and his pledge so so drink less alcohol. frank tweeted in and said his resolution is to make more in 2015 than he did in 2015. i wish you all the luck in that. let's have a quick summary of european markets over the course of this year before we hand you over to our colleagues
in the u.s. as you can see, the if it is it is if it is 100, the laggard of the european markets, down 2.7% for the year. germany up the opposite amount, up 2.6%. both france and italy ending the year roughly flawed, which hides the volatility we've seen throughout the course of the year. 52% returns from shanghai, given that hong kong was up 1%. that will undo in the early part of next year. india do i think very well, up about 30%. the only one in the red was korea down 4.76%. that is all we've got time for, not just for today's show, but for 2014. i want to wish you a very enjoyable night this evening. all the best in 2015. from all of us here on cnbc, not just myself, by my colleagues,
good morning. 204, another positive year for stocks and a wild last quarter for crude oil. where will the focus turn in 2015? and a possible history making moment for the ipad, but not what apple had in mind. and snow on the strip, las vegas in the southwest expecting to ring in a fringe yid new year. it's wednesday, december 311th, 2014. and there aren't many days left
in 2014. and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. becky is enjoying some time off. we're going to show you a life shot in just a moment of a picture of the -- a live shot of new zealand. revelers are welcoming in 2015 right now with a fireworks show. there you have it, 2015 hasn't begun yet here on the east coast of the united states, but has begun on the other side of the world. and they have begun that celebration. 2349 meantime, let's tell you about some other big stories we're watching this morning. a full day of trading before investors close out the books in 2014. equity trading will be c