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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 4, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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call liftoff, higher rates. >> got to leave it there. almost sounds like elizabeth warren at the podium. thanks for your insight. thanks for being here this afternoon. "fast money" coming up in a few minute. melissa lee, what's on top? >> up 50% in the past two trading sessions. we've got the answer to that. >> all right. over to you guys. >> thanks, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york's times square. pete najarian, dan nathan, karn finerman and dan grasso. you heard all the rumors that the apple watch may be a massive failure. survey results that back up those claims. that's ahead. plus biotech's orrexgen and tomorrow could be a huge day with the bce and stress stests on tap. we'll hear from one guest who says the euro could drop another 20% against the u.s. dollar. we start off with bank of
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america, down 11% year to date underperforming the broadcaster sector with some saying tomorrow could be a make-or-break moment for upper management at bac. karen, what do you think? >> well, it could or it could not be, and then we get the stress test tomorrow, but we don't get crar until the 11th if the stress test doesn't have an outlier result to it. >> whatever it is, the result or results six days later, grasso. >> citi and jpmorgan have been outperformers in this market so from late january, early february, they are both up approximately 15%. goldman sachs up 9% and bank of america up 4%. these are the names that obviously the market has placed the bets on. bank of america probably has the most upside potential to shock the market, but would i still go with citi, jpmorgan or goldman sachs. >> you know, and i don't think there's a lot built in. an analyst downgraded bank of america last week for a possible failure of this.
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i don't think expectations are particularly high, when you think of how bank of america closed last year as a multi-year high and went down 20% and almost a in a straight line in january. the stock has obviously moderated a little bit. something else is going on at bank of america, too. i don't know if you have notice it had, a lot of headlines, high-level departures from the merrill lynch and merrill lynch on the institutional side, okay, and we know they had a lot of brokers leave over the last few years after that deal, so it seems to be that maybe that merrill that was such a gem for these guys, they may be losing some of the shine over the last couple of years. >> maybe some of that is a little bit of a read-through on what people's interpretation are even within bank of america right now, so obviously we're going to find out a lot more about that come tomorrow, but to steve's point, he mentioned citi and jpmorgan and goldman sachs, i think those types of names certainly look very positive going into tomorrow as well as the crar. when you look at the numbers, bank of america is the one people are focused on. going back to last year, refocused again this year, and
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can they prove to the folks that they actually are able to be able to get through the stress test to show that they actually can be the kind of beige that they want? we all want to see if they can and then suddenly we start to see that bank take off to the upside but not until there. >> remember last year in 2014 they miscalculated core capital which was a huge issue. >> complicated issue that i couldn't ultimately figure out related to the merrill bonds and acquisition. it was an embarrassment for them, no doubt, and you've got to think that the pressure is on them just to get it right. the one sentence in the 10k that highlighted the issue. maybe there is another capital issue. so it's -- i do think though some fear is really already baked in. >> right. >> the stock prices. >> the last thing i would say about that in the options world, dan and i are both in the options world, look at these things all the time. bank of america huge volume today. the huge volume was not on the put side. not people looking for protection, looking for stock to sell off. actually it was more to the call
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side, and when you look at the volatility, the implied volatility speaking in the weekly options that expire friday as well as ones next friday. >> i would add that i don't think ccar is the main event. the language and what language starts expecting rate increases because if you get these stocks selling off back towards the lows that could be the opportunity to get in and buy them. if you get bank of america under $15 off some sort of situation with c-car. >> could that be interpreted as a positive, if the fed signals they will raise interest rates? >> use that weakness to buy in front of that. >> i think the bigger thing in the overall market, the overall market has been rolling over and xlf is sitting on top of its 50-day intraday average. if this is the canary in the coal mine people rush in when they are optimistic about the future. if you see the market rolling over like this, i think it's a warning sign for overall. >> okay. take a look at next chart here,
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the move n in the euro falling to the lowest level against the dollars ahead of tomorrow's european central bank meeting. our next guest says the euro could fall another 30%, change us is marc chandler. great to have you with us. this, a projected 20% decline against the u.s. dollar. in what time frame do you see that happening? >> projecting not just this year but into next year. i think we'll see it by the end of next year, when the gap, the divergence between the u.s., the federal reserve is going to be raising rates later this year and the ecb which we'll learn tomorrow more details about its own quantitative easing. >> what are you looking for, and what is the market looking for in tomorrow's detailing what have sorts of assets they will purchase and in what quantities? >> this is what we really know already, that they are going to buy approximately 60 billion euros worth of assets per month. they already are buying a little bit more than 10 billion between covered bonds and asset-backed
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securities. the big innovation that they announced in january is they didn't begin buying sovereign bonds, though we want to know more of the details. for example, what kind of bonds are they going to buy? what about negative-yielding bonds? how does this get announced? how strict is a 50 billion a month of solvent bonds and agency bonds, how strict is that? will they give us the details on a rolling basis every week. so we know that at the end of the month they have only gone 50 billion. they need to do another 10. does this push prices up? how much does this distort the market? most importantly for investors, this is what we saw with the federal reserve and the qe. when the federal reserve was talking about doing qe, dollar would sell off and bonds would rally. as soon as qe began, the opposite took place as if it is sell the rumor by the fact. we wonder if in european bonds huge rally in the stocks in europe on the idea that the ecb is going to do this quantitative easing. what happens when they do it? going to be a setback in the
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market? >> marc, it's karen. let me ask you something. do you think that there's some level of where the euro is relative to the dollar that would make the fed pause or some band that they wouldn't allow the dollar to go beyond? >> some people think that, that there's some limit and i think we see this from fed officials including the vice chairman fischer yesterday. he said the strong dollar is really not a problem for the u.s. it's a reflection of the strength of the u.s. economy. when yellen was asked about this, about international factors at the testimony, she basically said that these international factors are broadly neutral, that is, sure the strength of the dollar holding everything else equal is not good for the u.s. economy but only mildly. on the other hand, dropping oil prices and the drop in bond yields offsets the rise in the dollar as far as the impact on the overall economy. >> all right. marc, we're going to leave it
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there. appreciate it, marc chandler, bbh. dan nathan, you're going to put a trade on based on tomorrow? >> you look at the sx 80, rallied since the ecb meeting saying they would start qe very soon. enthusiasm built in here and one question the investors have to ask. is their qe going to be equal to ours? there was talk they couldn't buy all the sovereign bonds. >> and it wouldn't be enough. >> there wouldn't be enough. there may be enthusiasm built in here. i think could you have the potential for a short-term trade to the downside. the track to the euro stocks 50, one i'd be looking at. if the reaction is a sell the news, i think you can press it for a week or so because a lot of the good news is in the market. >> seen that before. buy european stocks compared to the u.s. >> certainly specifically when you look at certain areas, i still go back to some of the financials and some of the solid companies and ones trading at a
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huge discount to book value. i would still look at db, deutsche bank. solid name and i like to the upside in that specific area of the financial. >> you also have to bleed it out and say where does the dollar go from here? if the natural trade is stronger dollar, weaker euro, if that's what you're gaming yourself up to, what did crude? crude has the short covering bid right now and how long does that long? guys are still talking about crude in the high 20s. could be a huge amount of time that you have to really sell those energy positions in the e and p space and maybe level off and take some profits in the refiners. those have run a tremendous amount. >> karen? >> you know, i'm always perplexed by what to do with the dollar. i actually, you know -- we do have multi-national exposure clearly. >> does it concern you if the euro will weaken 20% more and the dollar strengthens. >> 20% more, yeah. >> that's very considerable. >> a considerable move.
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something bad will happen. >> all right. coming up next, huge gains for biotech stock orexygen and teen retailer abercrombie plunging after sales fell 14% but our own karen finerman says do not buy on the pullback. betting on an activist. back in two. to actively uncover, discuss and debate investment opportunities. which leads to better decisions for our clients. it's a uniquely collaborative approach you won't find anywhere else. put our global active management expertise to work for you. mfs. there is no expertise without collaboration.
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. a tell of two teen retailers, abercrombie & fitch getting hit today falling more than 15% hitting a near six-year low after a huge drop in sales in the fourth quarter. on the other side, american eagle soaring as it reportedly had a solid holiday quarter, up more than 7%. karen? >> yeah. american eagle, that was nice, but let's focus for a men on am crombie which i think is actually more interesting. you look at a name like this. look at a stock this cheap and you think, wow, something's really got to happen here, it's so cheap, but if you want to think about an activist coming in, don't expect it here. it's very vulnerable that could happen, but there already is an activist in there and in fact there was a very significant board change last year. half the board about is new, and looking closely at their bios it seems like a very good slate of
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candidates went on the board last year. they have -- so they already have a good board. i think they are trying to do the right thing. they are trying to find a new ceo. we found the high profile, the old ceo was ousted. that was a good thing, but you have a company that is really de-leveraging. they are closing stores. this is a company that when you have that kind of business where you're closing stores and your revenue is decreasing, your earnings have got to come down. even though it looks cheap on an ltm, it's not that cheap. if you can't stand it it's so cheap and need to own some, own a little. don't get full here. more bad things to come, and when they do find a ceo we think you could find a kitchen sink quarter as we always talk about, someone resetting the barlow so they know they can beat. >> listen, here's the thing. at some point you have to get a little contrarian with some of these stories. you seem to like the board. like the potential for the board to actually put some change in place and this is the hardest part of the changes right here.
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when i look at story like this, i mean, it's so bad that maybe it's almost good sooner or later, you know what i mean? 29% short interest. people playing for the downside. highlighted last week someone was buying march 16 puts, break even to the downside and when you see that bearish speculation, to me it kind of gets -- kind of piques my interest a little bit. the balance sheet is not impaired. >> it's not impaired, but it is deteriorating. it's not bad. >> right. >> there's not a liquidity crisis at all. i don't mean to suggest that there is. it's not as strong as it was, for sure >> you wouldn't short it here is my pain. another down 14%, you'd probably think of taking a shot to the upside. >> you think there's an activist. >> i think with the 1.4 billion market cap, there's plenty of people who could be interested in this brand and turn it around. >> next up, a health care rally that comes as the supreme court is hearing a case that could decide the fate of obamacare. supreme court justice anthony kennedy saying that there's a constitutional problem with the
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way the challengers read the affordable care act. his comments are giving investors hope the law could be upheld. grasso? >> yeah, and i think that's exactly what happened today. if you look at what's the biggest thing that will get hit off the aca being overturned? it would be the hospitals because the hospitals get that payout. federal subsidized payouts that go to hospitals that help them meet their bottom line and increase their margins. if it's overturned, they are not going to get that. hospitals reversed today, hca was up 8% and thc 9% and unh is the way to play, that unh is up 12% year to date. hospitals struggling to be positive. >> in terms of playing this, we won't get a decision for months so this is -- you're saying you feel like unh because the fundamentals of unh. >> people play the health care space as a quasi-safety bet on the overall market, but when you say we're not going to get a decision, we all waited for this. we thought that hmos would get
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pummeled going into the aca originally enacted, when the hospitals got hit and everything got hit and they all rallied aggressively. the truth is even if it was overturned, what's going to happen? there's going to be a replacement law put into place. still a safety net. >> okay. next up, orexigen soaring 11% today on the back of a huge 32% move to the upside yesterday. the drug-maker releasing positive data on its diet pal contrave without fda reporter. sfleeb's biotech reporter has the details. meg, i was scratching my head because we got news today that the fda was saying hold on, hold on. you jumped the gun when you released the data and have to do another stud? >> really true. been a complicated story. essentially what happened is orexigen put out a filing that it had been awarded an extra seven years of an obesity drug contrave taking it out to 2034 and that was on the back of an
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ongoing cardio vascular study that the fda required them to run, essentially because the drug has been linked toration heart rate and blood pressure, making sure it doesn't increase heart attacks and other cardio vascular event. not only did it not increase those events but showed an unexpected benefit in reducing those events. now, that's really the holy grail for these obesity drugs trying to reduce heart attacks and other cardio vascular side effects and that's why in addition to the patent extension the stock went up so much. the problem is the fda said these results were not supposed to be disclosed because the style is still ongoing and that could mess with the integrity of the results. putting out a statement saying that it's disappointed in orexigen's actions and stressing that the data are two preliminary to be reliable, saying they shouldn't be interpreted to suggest that con contrrave reduces the risk of cardiac events. the results should come in in
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2022. >> taking all these statements into consideration, meg, nothing -- i mean, the company is saying you know what? nothing has changed. we'll still do the study anyway and whatever rally happened yesterday it was worth it. >> right. that's what we're trying to figure out. i've been looking around, is there any consequence to the fda saying it's disappointed? it's not pulling the drug off the market. it has conditional approval right now. it has to show these cardio vascular safety results in order to get full approval. it's on the market and it's being sold. it's hard to tell that there's going to be any consequences here and the upside which analysts are so excited about is that it has a potential benefit. however, the fda is really cautioning. it's too early to say that. >> meg tirrell, thank you. >> karen? >> well, i can't -- i'm so confused by this, because i've got to think that describing an fda -- describing the results is such an important thing that every word is so carefully considered by the lawyers. it's a very big release.
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how is it that there was such a disconnect between what the fda felt they should reveal and what the company felt? it's hard to understand what happened there. >> so for that reason would you be skeptical? >> also, the 35% short interest, you know, makes me think it's not too difficult. >> this is one of those wild cards. when we talk biotech and we do a lot on this show there's the big-cap biotechs, the celgenes and other biotechs in the world, they have big caps and trade like big phrma names. going back to the bubble of 2000, these are the types of names that you talk about where there's great potential and now all of a sudden there's a little bit of an issue obviously. they are disturbed about what was released. it was done before it was supposed to be done and obviously that's a bit of an issue, but if there's benefits along with it as well. >> pretty amazing. >> could be pretty amazing for them as well. >> speaking of biotech and big phrma, a big move in
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pharmacyclics. >> we got a 2.5% on top of the move in the regular session here on reports from the "financial times" that johnson & johnson is close to buying the company pharmacyclics to a 17.5% current valuation and could be agreed upon in the coming days. remember that the company has been doing well over the past week because bloomberg did report that both johns johnson & johnson and novartis were interested in buying pharmacyclics which would allow johnson & johnson if it were to buy this, partner with pharmacyclics in blood cancer treatment deals. the deal talks have not been finalized and could still fall apart at any time. guys, back over to you. >> dom, thank you. pharmacyclics a 16.5 billion
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company, the biggest acquisition for jump & j. >> too scary. play the etfs. it's a much easier way to do it. >> it's binary, right, you either win or lose big but the problem is most people don't have the tolerance. you buy the ibb. clovis went from $35 to 85, so buying and riding the roller coaster. i'll put a gtc order on that one. >> i love that name. my final trade at noon. own some calls in there. own a lot of the biotech names as well as the big pharma names. i always tend to own them in stock for the most part. biotechs, almost always with options. just because of exactly what steve said and exactly something everyone has to understand. the volatility is absolutely outrageous at times. >> still ahead, a big reversal in crude oil as stockpiles sold.
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what rex tillerson had to say about oil demand in 2015 and how to play it and the play book on which three tech names you should own as the nasdaq covers near the highs and one name is looking a little crowded. details straight ahead. want more "fast money"? now you can catch full episodes anytime. >> anywhere. >> on your mobile device. >> any time. >> and i do mean everywhere. >> just go to cnbc.com/livetv to watch "fast money" on your smartphone, your tablet or your laptop. watch live or get up to speed with the latest full episodes all with one simple click. with market advice this good you can't afford to miss a single trade. get your ticket to "fast money" -- >> everywhere. >> at cnbc.com/livetv.
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welcome back to "fast money." vivint solar shares are up after reporting earnings that beat analyst estimates, beat by just a penny coming in at 36 cents against the average estimate of 37, maybe a narrow miss and shares of the solar energy company fluctuated in the after hours and are currently up, again, more than a percent here. already, melissa, up 4.5% in the
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regular session on 2 million shares of volume. again, adding to the gains in the regular trade. back over to you. >> yeah, i was tracking that. things along, dom. it's interesting, if you look over the past month or so, solar has seen a little bit of a renaissance when you take a look. sun edison and sun power back on the edge of the yield curve and they have soared 20%. >> as the volatility in oil seems to have died down, the band seems to be smaller in terms of trading, maybe we're seeing decoupling. viv and solar came last year at 16 bucks a share. nice that it's up a little but a long way to go to get back to even here. >> got a quick programming note. next friday we'll have an exclusive interview with greg butterfield, vivent ceo and exxon mobil announcing today at its annual analyst meetings plans to maintain the production outcome despite the recent collapse in oil.
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"squawk box" has an exclusive interview with ceo rex tillerson and here's a sneak peek of what he had to say about long-term demand. >> what is really needed is we need a pickup in market demand, and if you look at the performance of the u.s. economy, it's okay but it's not robust. europe is still struggling with declining demand, and china has actually slowed its rate of energy demand growth, so all of those are conspiring to create this imbalance which is why i've indicated to people that i think people need to be prepared to live with this for a while. >> how do you play lower for longer and what's the trade on exxon? let's bring in jason gamble, a hold rating on exxon. great to have you with us. normally in london so great to have you here on set. >> great to be here. >> in terms of the integrated oils, you don't like exxon. you prefer an rdx. what's wrong with exxon? >> nothing is wrong with exxon as a company but when we look at stock, it's a very expensive stock and it's trading at about
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a 40% premium on a cash flow output and the lowest dividend yield against the mega oil and gas companies so we think there's better value throughout the rest of the sector. >> you actually think oil will be trading lower than where it is right now and we've seen a stabilization. you're forecasting in your models a 10% decline from here. >> i think we have seen the worst of the volatility and we may have seen a bottom in the brent price this year, but i do think that the trade from here is lower. we're seeing massive inventory builds right now. that's going to be a big overhang on the market i think for the better part of this year. demand is still relatively weak. haven't really seen any signals on demand pickup and still haven't seen the top in terms of u.s. oil production either. i think we'll probably see that in the second quarter. that's going to help over the course of the year, but i think the trade is down, and the dollar could very well help push that. >> with this backdrop, is there defensive oil equities at this point? i mean, are there oil equities that will trade higher, even with the outlook for oil that you have? >> all relatively defensiveness when we look at that?
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>> these stocks will trade in high correlation with oil? the oil integrated stocks will not go down as much but are still likely to trade down? >> and do you cover refineers? what do you foresee for the spread? you think that brent has bottomed. >> i do think that brent has bottomed and just in terms of the refining margins, they are pretty strong right now but we're not seeing any real evidence of strong demand itself so i think the margins could get pushed lower. i think what you're seeing in brent relative to wti is just that iraq's back down again and loadings in iraq over -- iraq is now about 700,000 barrels lower than in december so you've tightened up the market momentarily. >> crack spreads seem to be rolling over to me so that's where you get the refiner margin, and crack spreads, that to me seems like a little bit of toppiness for the refiner space, but if you're playing with the integrated names as being your safety bet, why do you think that oil can't crack 50? we've heard ed morse talk about full storage.
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why can't it crack 50 right now? just the short covering or buys that are rolling out of positions until they get squashed because that can only last so long? >> in an oversupplied market it's difficult to say how low price can go. you probably need to get down into the 20s before you see production being shut in and that's really the last stopgap in terms of balancing the market. i think it may be doesn't push there simply because the longer-term fundamentals of the industry will require a much higher price in order to balance, and that could just keep the price in the near term supported. >> jason, we'll leave it there. jas jason game else. what's your top big? >> i've been in exxon before but not anymore. chevron is one of the names of the integrated names that he still had a buy rating on, 125 target on that, so i know he also mentioned there's no place that absolutely is going to give you all the protection you want. >> right. >> but at the same time that seems to be one of those names it. at least has some upside from
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here. >> we'll have the full interview with rex tillerson tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. eastern on "squawk box." more with dom on vivent. >> we wanted to say there was a loss of 36 cents per share on an adjusted basis. the expectations were for a loss of 37 cents a share so it was a beat but the loss was smaller than expected. also, they did provide guidance with regard to their first quarter. they think revenue will come in between 8 million and 8.5 million and for the full year they expect megawatts installed to be between 290 and 310 so, again, more details about that vifnt solar trade. back over to you, guys. >> still ahead could, it be the flop heard around the world in the street seems to be jumping on bandwagon that the apple watch will be a massive failure. we'll hear from one guest who just might have the cold hard survey results to back up those claims. more "fast" in two.
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for $29.95 a month for 12 months. plus for a limited time, get a free security camera call 1800 xfinity or visit comcast.com/xfinityhome. nasdaq falling for the second straight day after closing above 5000 on monday for the first time in 15 years. so as tech tops out, or is there
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more room to run beyond nasdaq 5k? joining us on the fast line is alpha one founding partner dan niles. great to speak with you. >> mice to be on. >> three top text that you're coming to us with, cisco being one of them. is there another piece of a company that they are going to buy in terms of security? >> i would rather they focus on their core business, and i think that's all you really need. if you look at last year, cisco's revenues were really depressed because had you all these mega mergers going on. you have comcast with their merger. you've got at&t with directv, and so that really slowed down spending in the service provider space at the end of last year, and i think what you're going to see is service provider spending picking up quite a bit in the back half of this year once these mergers get closed. cisco a nice big dividend yield and close to 6% and low pe multiple and people aren't that
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optimistic on name. it has all the the defensive characteristics i like because i'm not a fan of the market up here so -- >> hey, dan, do you worry with cisco? we saw, you know, a lot of u.s. multi-nationals had a lot of problems in the quarter that just ended and in their forward guidance about the strong dollar and then those that have exposure to emerging markets. cisco has both of those issues and the for some reason john chambers did not seem as concerned as some of his other peers at big mega caps >> you actually touched on why we like it because if you look at the stock, the good news is these guys were having horrible results come out of all of these reg ops. if you go back to january of last year, april of last year, the revenues were down 8.5% and china's revenues down 30% year over year at one point so the good and the bad news is they got hit by all the snow and stuff if you want to call it that, et cetera, a while ago and so their numbers were so bad a year ago that they are starting
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on the margin to improve right now. that's what i think is interesting to us is you've got negative 3% growth for the last calendar year and that should start to improve, really driven by the u.s. i don't really need the international stuff coming back. i need the u.s. stuff improving which makes me feel better because i agree with you. i think the international stuff is going to be bad for a while. i think it will be worse than what people think for most companies which is why i'm looking for more defensive names that are relying on u.s. grow to drive them for the rest of the year. >> dan, something jumped out in the course of this conversation and that is that you said that you're not a fan of the markets up here. why not? >> well, because i think it goes back to the question that he just asked me which is you've got problems with international. you've got problems with numbers coming down. you've got the currency impact sitting on top of this. the only thing that's really driving the market right now is multiple expansion and that's, you know, great and wonderful and it's been driving that for the last five years where multiples have been going up faster than earnings, but with
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the fed about to raise rates coming up at some point this year i think people start to really look at what they are paying for some of these companies relative to what's going on with estimates and people have to buying stocks based on accelerating and decelerating then you end up with the correction. it will get a lot more interesting as you get to the middle of next year. >> apple is one of your other picks. that's a big driver of the other markets here that you don't like overall. what do you think the probability is of an increased capital return come april? >> i would put the odds of that at 90% plus. to me it's hard to imagine that they don't increase the capital return. that's the one thing that you have to give tim cook over steve jobs is that he's incredibly shareholder friendly, and as you know he initiated a dividend and increased the buyback and apple is throwing off tons of cash and
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that number that he's willing to return to us will definitely gun, so i'm not a big fan of the iwatch in the sense that i think that there's a lot of hype around it. i don't think it's going to do great in terms of turning the needle for the company, but i am a huge fan of the iphone and that only a low percentage of people with an iphone have been upgraded, upgraded mine about a month ago and there's a lot runway left in that and then a nice big capital return boost coming i think in april will help the stock along. >> all right, dan. great to see you. >> thank you. >> dan niles, alpha one capital. where do you go, grasso? facebook was the other big. >> we spoke last night on the show. chamnobers, one has seen him as positive on that name in his own entire career. he's a smart guy. he sees something, sees the future and who are we to believe? i know that ceos by their nature have to be positive on their name, but he was extremely off the charts positive.
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he knows something that we don't so i think you have to follow the lead there. apple is currently overbought. it was triggered in late february. if every time it was overbought before, traded off about 11% so you could see the stock come in not the end of the world to 120ish but it should probably recover soon thereafter. >> dan niles, not you, dan. >> smart one. >> the smart one. >> let's be clear. >> how he thought that cisco was so underloved that i feel like it's becoming almost the crowded trade. >> getting a little more crowded, but it still is -- it's cheaper relative to itself overall, cheap overall when you back out the cash as well. not a go-go stock by any stretch. >> the recent selloff that we've, for a day, just a percent, could provide an opportunity, a name like this that did gap up a couple dollars after the better than expected results and if you get this thing filling in the earnings gap on a weak market that's why
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you go in and buy these things. >>etsy has officially filed for its ipo and dom has the details. >> guess what the ticker is going to be? >> etsy. >> wow. >> it's going to list right where you guys are sitting right now. going to be in the nasdaq market so etsy will be listed on the nasdaq. it filed its paperwork for its openio. it did not say anything with regard to exactly how much it will sell. there's a place holder amount put in there, but that can be changed, you know, up and closer to the ipo. this is a company that the online market plays in the video there. again, according to the company's own website, they had $1.9 billion in gross merchandise sales in 2014 and listed 1.14 million sellers on its websites versus 19.8 million active buyers, so it's an online exchange marketplace that's going to go public on the nasdaq ticker etsy. back over to you guys. >> thanks. you know what wants wayfair to really trade up is etsy, a
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similar company, or one king's lane may not be too far down the road. it's interesting. they have built a great business. >> time now for pops and drops. a pop for ambarella, up 7%. >> they sell indigo proand hype around these devices and sell in industrials and cars and i'm hard pressed to think that the 2 billion market cap the way they are executing and the guidance that they gave that they will be independent for too long. i can't imagine that intel and texas instrument are not surrounding these guys. >> drop for netflix, down 1%? >> the recent net neutrality ruling is a wind at their backs. i do think the stock goes higher. if the overall market comes in this won't be spared either. >> drop for alcoa down 4%. petey? >> that was off a downgrade, and they were talking about the fundamentals being one of the issues and also dropping what was the full year numbers from 130 down significantly so when you look at this company right now, it was over 17 and now it's pulled back. any more of a pullback then it's
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a buy and it still has little room to the downside. >> big pop for wayfair, karen? >> just talking about it. it is an etsy similar kind of thing but much, much broader. they came public at 29. hadn't seen this price since, so today they actually announced good earnings or less losses and some positive guidance so that was good. it was a very big pop and maybe there's some momentum now to get back above the first -- the ipo price. >> still ahead, headlines have been screaming that apple watch will be a flop for the company. exactly how many people are planning to buy one? got some brand new details after the break. stay tuned.
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new reports ahead of the apple watch release saying the new device will be a flop. our next guest did the dirty work on why the claims might be true. let's bring paul hickee. >> we assess consumer sentiment of all aspect of the economy and ask special questions each month and since the launch of the apple watch we've been asking what are the views of the apple watch? are they looking for more information, learning more information about it, and what are their intents to purchase?
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back in last fall we saw a moderate decent interest in it. we've seen waning interest over the last four months on a consistent basis, and it spreads across age groups, income levels and -- and gender, so you look at high income consumers, which are most likely to purchase. intend to purchase has declined and interest has declined in half since from november through now. we've seen a big drop, and especially among women. half as many -- women are half as likely to learn more information about the apple watch and then they are about half as likely to buy it, and so i think a key reason there is the size of it. the watch, even the small version, is huge when you think about it, and, you know, pete, i don't think you're very scared of wearing a big watch, but women -- i think most women look at size, it's the size of a men's rolex watch and that's pretty big and just shows like in the spread that they did in
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"vogue" not one picture of the watch on a woman's wrist so i think there's -- it's more convincing that they need to do at this point. >> right. i don't mean to catch you off guard if you don't know this, but do you recall what the ipad intentions were prior to the launch of the first ipad, whether it was seen as something that would be a big success? >> when the ipad was initially launched, announced, people deride it had as just a big iphone, very good point there, but i think the key here is looking at -- and when they -- when they announce more details next week things could certainly change but what we're seeing now is there's a tepid interest. the key is women are more likely to own an iphone than men are and the apple watch will be pretty much an extension of the iphone so if you're not wowing your largest demographic, you have some more work to do. >> that's the thing about this. you can never get the numbers up there because it's always going to be a subset of whoever has the latest phone that works and in this case it will be the iphone 6 so you'll always get a
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percentage of who owns the iphone 6 and going forward that number should get bigger and bigger potentially for potential users so for now it's going to be small. >> so right now the issue you bring up is the look. >> right. >> is it cost? is it the fact that it's not its own unit, got to be combined with something else, or are there other factors or just about the look? >> we're not trying to necessarily guess on what they are doing or guess on why people don't like it, not necessarily don't like it because interest is stepied. a lot of people will go out and boy it but the people the r people most likely to buy it are males 18 to 24 with income over 100,000 and not many of those going around right now. in silicon valley there may be, but outside of silicon valley not a whole lot of rich young men. >> all right. paul, thank you. >> i think it's great news for the company that expectations are coming down dramatically and the big risk, why you would not buy or sell apple, wearables are
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going to be a big, big trend for decades to come here and the flop, if it happens, will be bad for the company because it's going to demonstrate that they really haven't dna whole heck of a lot on the innovation front in the last five years and that's the wore toe me if i was a long-term holder of the shares. >> i don't think disagree with the first part of your statement. apple success does not hinge on whether this watch does well or not. >> right. >> and to dan niles' point, upgrade cycle on the iphone 6 is still in the continuation mode so there's plenty of people who have not upgraded yet, plenty of people with cracked screens who can't figure out how to fix their screens and that upgrade cycle i'm more concerned with with the success of apple longer term than the iwatch. >> another data breach. >> this time in the lodging business. luxury hotel chain mandarin oriental is investigating a potential data credit card breach. the hotel chain said, quote, we can confirm that the mandarin oriental has been alerted to a potential credit card breach and
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is currently conducking a thorough investigation to identify and resolve the issue. a security analysis firm on site says the breach happened just before christmas and that most, if not all of the hotel's properties in the united states were most likely impacted. melissa, not to state the obvious here, but this is not the motel 6 that people who go to these hotels have very, very high income and data and that data may be more valuable than others. >> alibaba rebounding from yesterday's slide. why traders are turning bullish right after the break. could be a software developer. so, how's the app coming? we've got to make something great. how's the app coming? we've got to do it fast. let's do this on bluemix. you can build apps with analytics, big data, even ibm watson. that could give us the edge. let's do this on bluemix. it can provide code for you. we could be first to market. because being best is priority one. being first is priority one. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm.
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works. big bounce for baba shares and they are making bets that the rally is short lived. dan is at the big board. >> massive rally, up 5% on the day, and you've got to think that all of this action has to do with this impending lockup expiration of 429 million shares coming on march 18th. that's more than the ipo from september of 368 million shares, a stock at one point that was down 20% on the year, so when you think about what's going on here, i mean, listen. this is where the stock found some support right here at 80 bucks. that was basically the all-time low since the ipo back in october, but there was one trade that really stuck out when the
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stock was $82 early in the morning. there was a buyer of 3,500 of the march 74 puts. those things at the time broke even, down 10%. they paid 25 cents for them. not a whole heck of a lot of capital committed there, but it gives you a sense of what some traders are thinking about into this experation, and this is a chart year-to-date when you look at this bounce right here. it's just telling you that things have kind of come unhinged in front of this deal, and i'm just going to make one more point why traders are maybe to commit long premium on directional bets and baba implied volatility. price of options relatively low and if you want to make directional bets into what's certainly going to be a market-moving event, that's the way to do it. >> thanks, dan. come right back. stay tuned.
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who said print is dead? printing giant r. donnelly is up 16% and i've got the industrial heavyweight honeywell. "mad money" is next. >> time for the final trade. >> sticking with the athletic wear world footlocker. going to go up, higher. >> dan nathan? >> qqq, short of it in put terms out in may. >> karen finerman? >> end of last year we did a short short of north dakota reit, covered a quarter of that. >> grasso? >> never speak about this. never been my final trade.
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pfizer, owned it forever, yield over 2% and up 11% year to date. more room to the upside. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you again at 5:00 for more f-fun. meantime, don't go. m mad. my nation is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investers. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey welcome to mad money. well coming to cray america. i am just trying to save you some money. my job is to educate and teach you. call me or tweet me. we have things everywhere and the battlefield is in smoke. you can not tell who is winning

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