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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 19, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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while. not a lot of drivers of sales for the dow, down 117, s&p is down to 2088 as we watch declines in crude. nasdaq has been stubbornly resilient over the past couple days 4990. over to headquarters, michele caruso-cabrera, and the half. ♪ welcome to the "halftime report." i am michele caruso-cabrera in for scott wapner. we have joe terranova, he's senior managing director at virtus investment partners, josh brown, ceo of ritholtz wealth management jon and pete najarian the co-founders of optionmonster. you guys get a two shot, wow. our game plan looks like this, ticking time bomb in bonds. why looming rate hike may create a nightmare for bond investors and who's at risk and why. selling out of ebay. we've got the analysts banging the gavel to sell on the auction site and first kick off with
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today's fed follow through or lack of it when it examines to the dow. stocks down, 10-year yield below 2%, dollar index on the rise again. like nothing ever happened. there's no more patience in the fed statement but chairman yellen also doesn't seem to be in a hurry to raise rates. so how do you trade it? what is your impatient playbook? pete? >> well, i think that you got to stick with what's been working so far, michele, and i think everybody, we talked about it yesterday on the desk, 90% of the folks who have come on here patience will come out but that doesn't necessarily mean june or necessarily mean september. probably signals in that direction, but i still continue to pound the table, i think these health care names, that's a place to be, because of the fact that not only are you getting yield, yields, one of the great beneficiaries of this area but getting companies that have growth. if you look across there, look at what's been going on, j&j over $100 a slayer, some of these biotech names, biogen, gilead, amgen, you get yield in many of the various parts of that market in health care, unh,
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some of those, but you also have companies who have plenty of growth in front of them. >> josh, looking at no follow through in the dow from yesterday but the nasdaq manages to hang op. what are your thoughts on this day after janet yellen. >> >> i think a lot of people saw the late day rip in the euro versus the dollar and took that to be signaling something. at the end of the day it was a counter trend move and i think a lot of the prevailing trends from this year so far are still in force. health care and it tech still look better than most of the market. utilities are showing the same strength they normally do when bonds act well and at the end of the day it's growth versus value and it's russell doing much better than the s&p and that has not changed at all. >> to be clear you're talking about right after the fed statement or the post 4:00 move in currencies where you saw two-second rip. >> same thing. >> that's like one person position really badly that gets unwound. >> it's one of the most liquid markets in the world.
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one person, no. >> everything is liquid until someone is severely out of step with reality. >> joe? >> listen, you know, the chair woman said yesterday that they're no longer going to be patient and they're also not going to be impatient in terms of what you should be doing with positions after yesterday. you want to be having patience, you want to have much patience because i think there's a lot that needs to be proved going forward. i don't think the script is going to change much. it looked like it did a little bit yesterday. it if you suspect that u.s. dollar has reached the cyclical peak which i don't you want to make necessary changes. i agree with pete when he mentions health care. i agree with sticking with the theme wheres u.s. focus, u.s. oriented assets are what you want to own. and i think looking forward, i think there's two things we still need to overcome. number one, would be vice chairman stanley fisher's testimony. >> on monday, right. >> which is important and secondly, the biggest near term
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risk to the market i don't think anyone is talking about it the high yield energy market. >> you're talking about the bonds in a lot of trouble at this point because of the declining price of oil. >> the contagion is back again, oil has rolled over. >> dr. j? >> well, i still think lower for longer michele. yesterday on the show -- >> for interest rates. >> not for the market. the market hasn't been doing anything. the market going like this. granted it has a heart beat but ends up unchanged on the week. >> back where we started. >> basically i think you look at lower for longer and who benefits from that, take a look at a stock like kinder morgan with nearly 5% dividend yield. they are not an oil exploration play. that is pipelines. 80,000 miles of them. there's stuff moving through those pipeline -- >> 5% yield in the market makes me nervous. >> it shouldn't. it should make you want that stock because -- >> i want the yield but is it a risk? >> short-term rates will be going up when they finally do make that move. is it june, september, is it october, is it at all? whenever it is that's a short
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term interest rate story. >> look at the intercession move -- >> tep year rates are going to be anchored as they are right now. scott and i talked about it yesterday and said it's going to break two, traded down 1.93 this morning. it will get back over 2 but trade under 2 and could test -- >> hold on a second -- >> most of the year. >> anything in the markets that explains the intercession move for the 10-year yield going back up here? am i making too much on something? >> possibly, yeah. >> possibly. >> you could be possibly, yeah. >> like josh said, if your au on the wrong side you're going to chase it at some of the wrong times because you're being squeezed and that's what's happened here over and over. >> one point i want to end this segment with, the most important takeaway from yesterday, nothing really happened, nothing changed. all that happened was that the economist consensus on the street was knocked back into line with what the bond market was already telling you. the bond market was telling you september or later. the economist had a consensus around june.
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the only thing that's changed is that the opinions are in line with what market participants had already been betting on. >> that's perfect -- >> that's healthy. >> let's get a market participa participant in now. ed, president of ardeneny research. he joins us on the phone. an economist but also an adviser on what people should do with their portfolios. what to you think about what josh just said. >> i agree with everything you have said so far. >> oh. >> which should make us somewhat nervous. >> let's go to commercial. >> there is a consensus out there and the consensus is that if the if fed is going to raise interest rates this year, it's going to do one or two at the most and now after the press conference, one and done or none and done even is a possibility. i guess we don't have much fed guidance anymore other than janet yellen is no the satisfied with the improvement in the labor market. so look, i think you got to look at this thing on a global basis and on a global basis a whole bunch of central banks that are competing with each other to provide ultraeasy monetary
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policy and as a result of that, the dollar has been very strong and as a result of that, the fed i think is stymied from doing much more than one and done. >> the dollar reacted very sharply yesterday. it seemed to suggest the market thought that they were more dovish than anybody expected. now that's all gone away. what's the bottom line after that huge move in the dollar? >> well, i think that to the tent the market start the outlook of fed policy and normalization a series of rate hikes looks less likely the upside for the dollar diminishes somewhat but when you look at it kind of currency by currency, i mean clearly the story is the euro is just aiming for a parity and now some people talking about going below parity relative to the dollar. the japanese central bank continues to pump in liquidity so, you know, this is not investing. this is all about the central bankers. at markets are all rigged and i
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don't say that critically, i say that factually. we have to deal with what it is and the reality is i love the central bankers they've been good to the stock market. >> yeah. so that would have been my follow up because i've been reading you for a long time, ed, and you know, really for almost my entire adult life it's been greenspan into bernanke into yellen so that's 28 years since greenspan came in. >> of a put. >> so the new fed, greenspan and afterward, is concerned about asset prices, but isn't that in part in response to how important financial assets are to our economy given the fact that we're a 401(k) society, we're a defined contribution society, and so maybe they should be as focused on asset prices as they have in contradiction to prior fed regimes. >> only problem with that, that makes you prone to financial bubbles. >> no doubt. >> i don't think anybody would
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argue that stocks are cheap here and interestingly when yellen was asked about her comments of a few months back maybe some areas of the markets were overvalued she passed and said i would rather not comment at this time and yeah, the fed really is not -- shouldn't be in the business of asset bubbles. i think they still are. i think we're looking at a situation now potentially in global stock markets thanks to the central banks. it's happening in europe, china, happening in japan and it could very well show up here again later this year maybe. >> so more fed assistance for the markets. thanks, ed. good to see you or not see you, have you on the phone. let's hit our trader blitz four stocks making news today. first up rite aid continuing to rise after joining american express customer loyalty program. >> i think that's part of the story. also yesterday there was absolutely incredible, we talk about munster action in terms of the options, consistently on this program, april 9 calls yesterday over 167,000 of those
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trading yesterday. a lot of speculation about the stock for a very long period of time. this is a stock that's in a turnaround. either way i think the stock is going higher. >> lennar beating on the top and bottom lines, josh? >> technically i love the way the stock is setting up above a rising 50 and 200 day, 3% off its house. this is as good a name as any. >> biogen trading higher on expectations strong data from its alzheimer's drug tomorrow. >> speaking at this conference alzheimer's and parkinson's and this particular drug they will be talking about, obviously people are a little excited ahead of that. michele, the stock is getting a nice $6 lift or so. keep in mind, $400 stock. this isn't exactly the same as a $50 stock with a $6 lift. but it is pushing back towards the all-time highs. >> wow. freeport, falling hard today. mr. new world. >> it's incredible where the stock has been. a couple years ago when we used to do march madness wasn't the stock -- >> one of the favorites for
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sure. >> one of the favorites for sure. i mean the wrong deals at the wrong time, getting into the oil market. yesterday, okay, the stock rallies, gives it all back today as the dollar reverses. the stock is in such trouble. you don't hear a hint, a hint of activism or m&a discussions surrounding it. unbelievable. >> a dog. >> worse than that. >> if there is something like that because i like dogs. >> dog with a flu. >> a cat. >> coming up the call -- the call of the day. the analyst who says sold, gene munster defends his ebay call. drilling for deals in the energy space, the worst sector today. should you buy on the dip. apple's first day in the dow. welcome. right now the index is -- lower by two-thirds of a percenten. apple lower by a third of a perce percent. much more ahead on the halftime report. get where i am. and i didn't get here alone. there were people who listened along the way.
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jute call of the day, a downgrade for ebay. gene munster slapping them with an underperform, a sell between you and me. he joins us from las vegas to defend his call. >> thanks for having me. >> what's the rationale for saying ebay is a sell? >> first, we understand that the valuation has some support here, so it's an attractively valued stock. our core issue is, will you use ebay products more in two years
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or less in two years? our belief is you will use them less. >> why? >> they will have two different businesses. paypal side, everyone has talked about apple pay. we think they're going to have he exponential growth but google wallet and facebook and snap cash and samsung are getting the payment space. on the marketplace side they've had challenges that have been kind of more one-time and focused around their password reset and google analystic changes. we think that marketplace is going to grow slower than the overall e-commerce growth. if you put those two together, our believe is for tech stocks to work they need to gain market share and we think that both of their businesses will lose market share over the next couple years and that's why we downgraded. >> loss of market share for paypal when you see new players coming into the market. are you confident about apple pay? it's had mixed concerns and reviews about fraud? >> couple things. we estimate 20 to 30 million people have active apple pay and
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in the in a year that number will be over 200 million. exponential usage of that. 18 to 58 retailers, 6 to 150 banks, we think that more importantly is that apple pay will extend to be more competitive with paypal in particular, with the ability to use in browser on your phone and also peer to peer and so i think that apple pay has been off to a good start, clouded repeatedly with the security things but i don't think that's apple pay related. >> the guys want to get in here. >> i just so i agree with what you're saying on apple pay but the other side of the logical conclusion from your research. is not that the competition from apple is going to put that much pressure on the company, but the competition is going to shine a lot on how incredibly powerful on-line payments as a whole will be and that could lead to either takeover speculation for paypal once it's spun off or an increased multiple in the meantime or both, quite frankly
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and i think that's why the stock is going green as we speak. even though you cut it this morning. what do you think about that? >> i think that's the bull case, people believe that ultimately there is this takeout plan that valuation is attractive and a lot of stuff we're talking about are things that will unfold over the next several quarters and next couple years. i think that all that is accurate today but if you look at how these products and the competition is going to progress i think that again, they will be share losers. there is the risk the rising and ebay and paypal will benefit but we're taking the opposite and say they have have been untested and now will be more it tested. >> thanks for joinings us from las vegas. >> thank you. >> all right. let's trade it. you are obviously closely watching this and the technicals. >> stock has been caught in the range between 50 and 60 for more than three years now. i think it's about to break through $60 and have a true breakout. i obviously think the spinoff is
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going to be the dat list for that. excitement around it. but again it's 160 million users growing 13% year over year. it's still a dominant franchise and when they figure out pay at the register technology, all of their users will start to use it and i think that this thing is not ready to be counted out yet. >> i would say snapchat, that's the one to watch here, michele. that's the one that's going to eat ebay's lunch and virtually everybody else except for apple in the space including facebook by the way. the reason they've got square. in other words, they've got jack dorsey, the guy that's got mobile payments down with square, that's part of snap cash, i think that's one to watch. >> what about facebook? with the announcement about being able to send money -- >> if they would cut the deal with square i would give it to -- i would give it to facebook, but they didn't. >> i see -- >> there's three things about ebay that i think play into the bull case. >> i was asking about facebook. but go ahead. >> sorry. but the bull case against unfortunately what the call today from gene munster is, is one, the board changes, two, the
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split and three floor experience tells me when people continue to buy upside and come in there, this has been going on for months in this stock. i think it is ready to break out to josh's point over 60. we have seen huge paper for weeks coming in there. i think the stock goes higher. >> coming up, crude continues its collapse so we're looking for diamonds in the rough. is it finally time to buy some of the beaten down oil stocks? plus, counting down to the european close. equities across the pond are mixed after the dovish statement from the if fed. we have all the numbers that matter coming up right after this. ♪ but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity
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and get the third 50% off. office depot & officemax. gear up for great. phil lebeau has breaking news on it tesla. phil? >> right now, michele, a conference call, elon musk is updating everyone on the software updates that tesla has been teasing over the last several days for all model s vehicles. he said it would end range anxiety. here's what tesla will push out to their vehicles trip planner, essentially in your vehicle as you're going over long distances the vehicle will automatically map out your route and say, this is where you need to stop in order to have enough miles to make it to the next charging
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station, et cetera, a range assurance feature where the vehicle will be monitoring the range so it will tell you you're running low, this is where you need to recharge your vehicle. elon musk basically saying it's going to be impossible to run out of mileage if the future unless you purposely try to do that. and finally, perhaps the most interesting news, guys, is something he said about the next software update which will probably happen in about three months, three and a half months from now, it will include auto steering. tesla is currently test driving the auto steering feature between san francisco and seattle. elon musk said during their test drives they basically have gone from san francisco to seattle without the driver having to do very much. not touching the steering wheel, not doing a whole lot. that's expected in three or three and a half months. back to you. >> that's a self-driving car in three months? >> essentially. and that starts to open up a whole bunch of questions with regard to regulators. >> wow. >> i've -- michele, i've done this with the audi a 7s test
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vehicle in california and it is almost an extension of cruise control. very natural, very comfortable when i was doing it, but the question becomes, if tesla pushes this through to their model s vehicles will regulators step back and say hold on a second. we need some assurances that people are actually paying attention when they're behind the wheel. because it's going to be very tempting on a long drive to say take out my kindle and read for a while. >> read your phone. cool stuff. thanks so much, phil. >> you bet. >> a sea of red in energy stocks today. should you buy on the dip? morgan brennan here with the breakdown. >> hey, michele. the rally was short lived, crude prices falling today. we have both brent and wti trading lower today. and that in turn is weighing on energy stocks. take a look, the energy select sector spider e etf, the xle, see that here over the past year as we've seen crude prices come down so has the xle and the case today and especially been the case over the last six months
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with the xle down about 19 perez%. nonetheless, in the short term many experts expect crude to continue falling on oversupply but analysts say that's no reason not to start cherry picking stocks for the eventual recovery. we're going to start with the hardest hit. oil and gas producers, anadarko petroleum one name to check out that could agagain 16% over the next 12 months according to analyst price targets. why? high quality assets, strong balance sheet and it's considered by many on the street to be a potential takeover target. similar story for noble energy. also an upstream producer. focus heavily on nat gas. implied upside for this stock over the coming year, 16% as well. turning from upstream to mid stream this is another place to look, is energy infrastructure. these are the companies that own pipelines and tank farms. in an energy downturn, transport and storage becomes more crucial and we're seeing more interest
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in names like all american pipeline. courtney fact said this stock could gain 24% according to analyst consensus numbers. as the year progresses it will benefit from more infrastructure demand and a company expanding buying assets and building out new ones. we're seeing that with a lot of major mid-stream players. we've looked at upstream, at mid-stream stocks but guys, another one to check out is going to be downstream, specifically the refiners. they've already been outperforming this year but we're going to dig into those later come the next hour. back over to you. >> all right. we'll be looking forward to that. jon you like trawl petrol yawn and sand ridge. >> yes, more or less as bounce candidates because of the big short interests in them. don't have a position in either one. but if i was getting ready to pull that trigger these would be two that i would look at independent oil and gas players. >> down 7%, it's getting cheaper by the minute. >> i'm not in them yet. i'm not really ready to pull the
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trigger yet. we could see 40 because i thought we would have held closer to 45 as we broke through 43 i think a lot of folks are looking for that 40 number. >> all right. european markets moments from the close. we will bring you the numbers that matter next. a u.s. bond buying spree in response to the it fed statement. could there be a ticking time bomb in the market. don't forget to visit cnbc.com/halftime for all the trades and analysis from the team. we're going to be right back. these days, the most important person in your business could be a software developer. so, how's the app coming? we've got to make something great. how's the app coming? we've got to do it fast. let's do this on bluemix. you can build apps with analytics, big data, even ibm watson. that could give us the edge. let's do this on bluemix. it can provide code for you. we could be first to market. because being best is priority one. being first is priority one. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm.
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welcome back. european markets closing right now. to simon hobbs at the nyse for the highlights. >> hi, michele. as far as the government bonds in europe were concerned a big rally in the wake of the dovish fed. reaction amongst equities was somewhat muted. lond london's ftse did hit a record on strength from global miners as the german 10-year yield plowed to a fresh record low of 17 basis points. meanwhile, importantly a arriving at the eu leader summit in brussels angela merkel told reporters not to expect a break through from the meeting she's agreed to tonight with the greek prime minister along with the french president and ecb's mario
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draghi because it's too high level to work out specific greek actions that might unlock extra euro group cash. last night, in athens in an emotional speech, prime minister spir rose defied the group and introduced a bill that includes free electricity to broke citizens, raining foreign tech know crates would no longer draft greek legislation. fearful the standoff could lead to capital controls the greek public is withdrawing up to 400 million euros of deposits each day according to the "financial times." that wipes out in just one session the additional liquidity that was just granted, michele, by the european central bank. in the meantime the greek prime minister continues to ride high in the opinion polls. back to you. >> it's going to be ugly, suspect it? >> oh. >> all right, thank you. to sue herera with the latest headlines. >> hi, michele. your cnbc news update for this hour. new developments in the deadly museum attack in tune knee shah.
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on-line audio recording saying isis is claiming responsibility for yesterday's assault. tunisian authorities saying nine people have been arrested in connection with the attack which killed 23 people mostly tourists j the head of the palestinian authority commenting on the outcome of the israeli elections for the first time. president mahmoud abbas saying a two-state solution is no longer possible under prime minister netanyahu. at home a report finding rivers in western new york and new england have the greatest risk of spring flooding because of the heavy snow pack we have. it's all part of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration spring outlook. the federal agency predicting drought conditions will persist in california, nevada and oregon. california's governor planning to announce emergency drought legislation this afternoon. foreclosure falling to the lowest rate since 2006. reality trak reporting fore closure activity is on track to
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return to precrisis levels. that's your news update this hour. >> we can always use some. bond yields below 2% after yesterday's fed announcement and hitting a one month low. jackie deangelis is at the nymex with more. >> hi, good afternoon. most traders are describing this really as a breakdown in bonds right now. anthony, do you think that this is enough to get us to retest the lows of the year? >> you know, jackie, i think it's possible but probably not likely because if you read the fed statement after april they could raise interest rates at any time. it if i'm on this position or trade or long bonds right now i don't want to be the last one out of the pool. i'll start unwinding those positions between now and then. >> having said that, jim, what are the technical levels that you're watching? >> i think bonds are going down to 1.85 about now and i look at this 10-year bond yield and doesn't look low when you look at european yields. i don't think people are worried about being the last out of the
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pool. the 1.97 it looks like a fat yield. >> bonds and crude oil for the on-line show 1:30 today, futuresnow.cnbc.com. dennis gartman, a very bold call on crude oil. you don't want to miss it. >> i don't. absolutely. i will be watching. thank you. let's stick with the bond market. "the wall street journal" suggesting plunging trading volumes are putting the bond market at risk for a big disruption. is there a ticking time bomb in the bond market due to the lack of lickty? let's talk to michael, the ceo of itb connect bond trading platform. i've been hearing complaints from a lot of traders, bank of international settlements additionally the bank of england, everybody's been warning about lack of liquidity in the corporate bond market. how bad is it? >> i would say that it is certainly something that is on the radar screens of every market participant, but in terms of, you know, it's -- is it bad right now?
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i would say that really there is really more of an expectation for there to be a real liquidity problem down the road. over the past since 2001, the core bond market has essentially doubled in size. meanwhile the trading volume has not been able to keep up mostly due to market infrastructure reasons so when the if fed does increase the interest rates, at some point, obviously we're looking at a very shortly, that could be a possibility that would be a rush out of bonds and that could pose to be a major problem. >> at the rick of telling our viewers what they already know, let's define liquidity. when a trade is liquid you can execute it quickly with low friction costs and close to the market price that you're seeing quoted at some point. when it's illiquid, the second you do the trade, if you can do it after calling six different desks does the price move because you're the only person in the market, have i got that right rite? >> yeah. that's basically right. so in corporate bonds, very few trades could massively move the
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market, especially if, you know, the amount of, you know, dealers that are there to provide the liquidity is not as high as it used to be. you know, dealers right now have seen their balance sheet shrunk somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% in terms of the capacity to make corporate bond markets and so as a result when you want to sell something the prints go lower and lower and very few bond trades could move the market in the major way. >> michael, it's joe. i don't know that i would necessarily agree with your assessment. i think there's deep liquidity in a lot of good supply names that have come to the market over the last year. but i guess the question would be, where i would agree with you, is do you see a potential problem for the bonds that are held in a lot of these etfs? >> well that's another interesting point, joe. i mean the -- you know, there has been a development of etf market over the past few years that's become very liquid and has attracted a lot of attention and an easy way for people to
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gain corporate bond market exposure both on the long side and on the short side. so, you know, right now, it's much easier to sell corporate bond etf as it is to sell a corporate bond and so, you know, the market has been pretty much, you know, in a very range bound state in bonds and it's been pretty much a bullish trade. when that trade unwines it becomes a bearish trade a lot of selling of etfs and the quickness of investors that can sell etf will pose to be a major problem for the underline markets. >> when everybody is looking for the exits. thanks so much. >> yeah. >> thank you. >> your point when -- if you can buy and sell an etf quickly but what if the underlying bonds are moving so erratically that price of the etf, the nav starts to get ugly at some point, right? >> he's making a broad characterization of a very deep market which is the investment grade. >> it's not feeling that deep any more. i talked to a lot of these guys who are very, very concerned --
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>> the guys are looking to roll back dodd/frank and doing this kind of commentary where look at what they did -- >> i can show you ininventory charts -- >> you call up like having a book store, stuff out back, want to buy that, sell that, i got it. now they don't have it. it's harder to make a market. >> plenty of inventory in corporate bonds. >> lot more flooding in here, michele, from zones around the world that do have that zero interest rate. or negative yield. >> right. >> they'll hit that offer. >> joe, go ahead. >> let's go back to the point on this. you've got a holdings in the etf of select corporate bonds. >> yep. >> those are the specific bonds that you would be worried about if people are just going in. >> right. >> and selling the etf. it's those specific bonds so if you're going buy an etf which a lot of people do, whether it's high yield or the lqd investment grade look at what bonds are in the etf before you buy it so you know what you have. >> got it. coming up how major currency swings are impacting retail
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stocks and also pushing luxury brands to adjust prices in different parts of the world. and don't miss a cnbc exclusive ber view with home depot ceo on the closing bell at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. "halftime" is back after the break. the competition for trader of the year continues. six "halftime" traders, one epic battle. who will reign supreme in the ultimate portfolio challenge. keep up with every move on the "halftime report" and go to cnbc pro for real-time trading alerts, plus exclusive insight and analysis behind the trades. sign up now at cnbc.com/pro for your limited time free preview. the portfolio challenge on the "halftime report" noon eastern weekdays on cnbc. jack's heart attack didn't come with a warning.
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only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny, business incubators that partner companies with universities, and venture capital funding for high growth industries. see how new york can grow your business and create jobs. visit ny.gov/business coming up at the top of the hour on "power lunch" the war against alzheimer's biogen on the front lines and the stock hitting new highs ahead of a major data release. should you be buying the stock now at these levels if in general stocks are down today but the fed hoping to keep the bulls running. which stocks will push this market higher. we've got six stocks that are ready to pop. searching for po protext against the strong dollar. small caps hitting all-time highs and less exposure to the soar in currency than their large cap rivals. small cap fund manager gives us
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his three favorite plays. lots of things coming up with two big hours of power. back to michele on fast money "halftime report." >> let's talk retail, guests reporting earnings and stock up nearly ll lly 17%. dana telsey joins us now. first, tell us what do you make of the move? you don't like the stock but it's up sharply. >> i think overall their same-store sales came in a little better than expected, earnings around 5% better than the consensus nonoperating benefit they got that helped the earnings. still a work in progress. think about turnaround names and who's turning more progress happening at gap in the near term given the new ceo ands the changes he's making. guess is still a work in progre progress. >> not convinced by the numbers. what do you think? >> a decent amount the short interest you would probably
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agree, not really your bally wick, but when you do build up a big short are like that, it tends to on any benign news at all, like, you know,s the guidance wasn't exactly strong, i didn't think but there the stock was off to the races popping back towards 20 so i think that's a big part of it with guess. >> if there's a lot of short positions i would speak to what dana was talking about it being a work in progress. talk to us, we've been reading about the luxury retailers pricing, having to ship their pricing in different markets because of the ash traj happening with customers as they travel around the world and buy products in different places due to currencies. >> we're seeing this all over given the strengthening dollar relative to the euro. it helps u.s. companies and certainly helps euro when you think about an lvmh who gets more of their sales in paris, they're beginning to see some of the asian tourists come their way and helps them benefit. so in the near term it definitely impacts the companies that have more of the u.s. companies more so than the
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european companies because these tourists we're seeing it in some of the data in the month of february more asian tourists going to europe and benefiting the sales of european luxury goods companies. >> we should underline a asian tourists probably chinese tourists because the chinese currency is still roughly pegged to the dollar, right? >> exactly. it's the chinese tourists going to europe. i'm going to london in the beginning of april and anxious to see wait looks like. i was there in february and it began picking up and see what it's like in april. >> you like a retail name we don't talk about, carters. >> carters almost never comes into the conversation but if you believe that labor market trends that we've seen thus far are going to continue, the market will tighten, minimum wage will rise, involuntary companies doing it anyway, carters the name that should benefitp the chart is incredible and stock broke out and kept on going. trades at a 17 forward multiple
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and growing earnings 30%. about a four and change billion dollar market cap could get acquired. the parent of oshkosh. these are the types of retailers i look for where they're winning in their niche, not a lot of people own them, and they're not quite so broad that you see these complaints about snow storms and the like. dana, i don't know if you follow a name like carters but what do you think of spending in the category on young children and babies? >> we're going to begin to see more of a baby boom. that should help. it's an extremely competitive category. you've seen it in the numbers of justice, take a look at children's place who's managing very well, you got to say, old navy has big share in this category. it's competitive. i agree with you on carters and oshkosh. oshkosh is a terrific name. i think could it be a takeout, some of these small retailers that have brand names we've heard -- look what we've heard with ann, chicos, sometimes hard to get a deal done with many of the mall based retailers. >> tiffany, kate spade, lulu
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lemons all buys you were telling us about. >> got to love the brands. tiffany's trading below where it had been. new management in charge and making change. new products being introduced not only the tea collection, watch for watches this first half of the year. when you think about kate spade, the comps have been terrific. there's a runway of growth. both in terms of units and also direct. and when i think of lulu lemon the active wear category growing three times as fast as regular apparel and even though they had a year and a half where the merchandise didn't work comps in the fourth quarter are looking good with traffic having improved and now, it's resonating again. the merchandise is back in the stores. we like that active wear business. >> so lulu is back. guys, what's the best -- >> i think it's doing better. >> i like this athletic apparel part as well. i think under armour has been one of my favorites for a long time. nike has been one of the favorites. foot locker as well. lulu had been absolutely crushed to the downside. >> i remember. >> here it goes pushing towards
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52 beak highs. i'm with dana i think the stock has upside. she has a $73 target. the traffic is good, athletic apparel where people are moving. >> urban outfitters great turn jounds, ross stores, has done well. i'm waiting for michael kors. i don't know when the turn jaernd is coming. i would love to buy it. it's long overdue. >> we will he have to have you back to talk about michael kors. >> would love to. thank you. >> all right. coming up, josh is making a move in the competition for trader of the year. is it going to shake up the leader board? what's he buying and -- look how coy you look. >> i thought they were zooming in on me. >> they are. >> sit here like -- >> no. >> zooming in on you. >> that's next.
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smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. when are you going to make a trade? >> almost ready, man, swear to you. >> don't play me with that. >> pete? >> this week. >> all right. you're not in the competition to sit on your hands, right? >> you're right. you're right. >> peter, you're close? >> i am, really, really, really close this time. you know, i am -- in fairness, i'm incredibly active trader on a daily basis, so to be able to sit there and go through the portfolio on a day in and day out basis is not something i have enough time and patience to be able to do when i have other demands. i'll trade soon. i have to look. >> you haven't all year. >> i'm 0 for a year and a half. didn't trade last year either.
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>> all kidding aside, i think chad has done more than you. >> i feel like that. slumping a little bit. >> now, josh, show that leader board again. >> trading every minute. >> second place. >> i don't know about you, i can't stop trading. >> he's addicted. >> what did you do yesterday afternoon? >> what helped this week is starbucks and getting into the name. i'm doing something that's based on technicals here, and what i'm looking for are leadership stocks, so i have no ability to know starbucks had a split and the market would like it, but it helped. thank you. my trade, i'm going to talk about is jb hunt. i took a profit in aetna, up 20%, part of the rules for what i'm doing in the contest. i'm replacing that with a trucker called jb hunt, jbht. it's in the wheel house with an upward sloping 50 and 200 day moving average, broke out, and it may retest 85 from whence it
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came. it may not. either way, stock hits higher and fits in perfectly with the rules base portfolio i'm doing for the particular contest. >> see, pete, it's not that hard. >> i know. josh stole my thunder. that's a beautiful trade. >> that's what you would have done? >> i like the idea. >> praise from caesar. >> oh! [ laughter ] >> all right. remember you can follow all the action at cnbc.com/pro. coming up, just three hours left in the trading day, and we have your game plan for the second half. plus, a special guest teen trader is here with his pick, and how it is he's on fast money today? go to cnbc.com/halftime. we'll have analysis and trade. we'll be right back.
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but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running. only three hours left before the close r bell. what's your best trades for the second half of the day? we have a special guest with us. josh brown, why don't you do the hop nors of introducing the
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young gentlemen here. >> yes, i'd love to. ladies and gentlemen, america, this is will hassle, soon to be a famous asset manager or fun manager. he's in high school. he was in a teen trader contest, came on "fast money" last year, now my intern, and i've been dragging him all over new york city, new jersey, and he's -- >> you lucky dog. ? talking about his stock. >> my trade is starbucks. it's going to go a hundred before it splits, and i love it because howard is a genius, and the expansion to delivery is going to make them just margins off the hook, and revenue will double. going to be fantastic. >> what about the issue in the last couple days where they were hammered on twitter that encouraging talking about race? >> it's public opinion. that changes. the stock has not affected it whatsoever. i mean, it's back to back days of over 2%. it's going to go to a hundred. i'm pretty sure of it. >> all right. >> why make him the intern, by
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the way if he's going to be a great trader? give him -- open anning t accout him trade for you. >> yeah, he's 18. remember what you did at 18? he has a leg up, but at the end of the day -- >> joe, what's your trade? >> xlv. talked last week, health care, pete's talking about it, great sector. if you caught the ride higher, i don't want you to sell it, look at xlu, sell xlu, put the pair trade on. >> josh? >> go back to carter's. this is an exiting retail play, great chart, everything about it. >> monster beverage, mmst. they are buying in big numbers out in the first week of may, and so in other words they are getting themselves more than 30 days out into the future so this would be a trade i'm in for two to three weeks. >> options new york city not the stock? >> yes.
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>> pete? >> interesting last couple trading sessions, volatility index slammed yesterday. today, it is not getting back up above the 200 day moving average, an important level, and you need to watch this. stays juunderneath, load up wit protection. markets will be volatile. >> absolutely. >> all right. >> you're okay with that? >> pete hit the best point of the show. watch oil. right now, it is in trouble. it's going to dictate where the market goes. >> why? >> why is it in trouble? >> why dictate the whole market? >> it's obviously going to dictate, s&p trading now, oil, once again, it dictating where the s&p is going as we trade to $43. the trouble on the downside is not over, and if that's the case, the s&p's going to struggle to move higher. dollar's going to lift, euro's going to continue to be weak. euro's basically almost near yesterday's low. >> right. >> right now. >> even though they had a rally. >> watch oil. >> all right, guys. thank you so much.
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will, good luck to you. >> thanks. >> and power lunch begins right now. have a great day. >> halftime is over. power lunch and the second half of the trading day starts right now. >> michelle, gentlemen, thank you very much, along with mandy, i'm tyler mathis, dow down for the worse, down by three quarters a percent at 17947 moving below 18,000. nasdaq is flat. s&p 500 two-thirds a percent lower at 2086 and russell at 1250 on the button down .09, mandy. >> that's right. playing the euro dollar trade, treasuries, and the fed as well. >> investing without fear of the fed and the dollar. you can't stand volatility, you don'ha

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