tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 1, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
>> if you believe stan fisher that the fed is not going to move if 24i7ks things are super volatile that would prevent the fed from elevating the curve. we'll see what the afternoon brings. >> cashin says a 300-plus print on friday could make things very complicated. >> let's get to sara eisen and the half. in today for scott wopner, let's meet today's starting lineup. joe terranova, stephanie link, josh brown and pete najarian. and our game plan looks like this. technically speaking, as the market moves gives investors whiplash, we're pointing out the levels of support and resistance that you should be tradingnd watching. you go have questions, pete's got answers, we'll be weighing
in on air and on twitter. but first, the sell-off resumes, the major averages are down sharply. so is oil, wti crude down 7%, down 321, s&p down 2% and the nasdaq down 1.5%. manufacturing data weak, stephanie link how much of this is a china-based sell-off. >> i think you have to separate the market action. here and around the world from the underlying fundamentals, can you kind of get wrapped up in this emotion trade. and i think that you have to step back and look at u.s. where fundamentals are getting better. last week at this time we posted a 3.7% gdp revision, we have a good consumer. we just posted today, 17.7 million s.a.r. so there are pockets here in the u.s. that are doing well. europe certainly not as strong
as the u.s. but on the mend and seeing improvement in growth. given their pmis, they were pretty much in line. i think it's a volatile time. we're very much hostage to the macrodata points, we haven't been hearing from companies. until we get through the fed we may be in this trading range. i think you got to make the shopping lists and you have to feel good about the underlying fundamentals in the united states. loi oil prices remain a fuel for the consumer which is an important part of our economy. >> josh brown, what are you watching? the nearly 30% move high anywhere oil over three or four sessions was an abberation, today it's down 8%. >> it's a commodity. volatility is the norm in oil. not the exception. and at the end of the day you're talking about one month's contract on a futures exchange. you're not talking about prices at which barrels of oil physically are being exchanged at. so the 27% rally is a great data
point. but not terribly important. what is important is the fact that we've rebounded on the s&p, about 50% retracement from the may highs to the august lows an roll back over. we are not getting the traditional v bottom that traders have become so accustomed to. i think that's indicative of something bigger happening than the 5% correction. i think people need to be honest with themselves. about whether or not they're carrying too much exposure. and if we are in a new downtrend it's fairly early. not necessarily late. if we're not, the worst-case scenario, hey you didn't capture all of the rebound. constructively speaking, to stephanie's point. you look at the housing data, you look at ongoing consumer credit stuff. it's all positive. you look at industrial stuff, manufacturing, not so positive this is the dichotomy we've been forced to live with for a long
time. there's no escaping it. >> the chinese manufacturing data or the idea that we're trading off the policy ideas and not the fundamentals, the question is is china's central bank in control? >> and japan capital spending, that was the beginning of this last night and then all of a sudden we get the chinese pmi. this total focus that we came out of the earnings season, not so bad. we pushed ourselves up over the 2100 level, in the s&p 500 and we've been drifting lower, since we got past the bulk of the season and now the news on china, the pmi under 50, three-year lows, something very concerning. matched what we had seen in february as well. the real pmi, what is it? some of the estimates in china are saying something close to 47. when you look at the japanese capital spending, it comes in at 5.6, looking at 8.8, that's
huge. we talked about oil and the volatility. ovx back up above over 60, back where we were in march. the volatility you mentioned in oil. the huge cascade down after three days to the upside. expect volatility to stay in the oil names because we're trading far more on the macro, and far less on what's going on here. i think the u.s. economy is humming pretty decent, when you look at the economic data. it seems to be solid. we start to look macro, and that's when the selling begins. >> the last time that crude had a session it moved less than 1.8% was back to august 20th. these swings are incredible. the swings are incredible right now. i think we talked about it yesterday on halftime. the potential for oil to roll back over. i think a lot of what we're seeing, i agree with what josh cited on the technical levels, i think the market is trading at incredibly powerful technical capacity. i think it's the first time it's doing so in many months. i think you have to be cognizant
of where the technicals are right now in the marketplace. obviously yesterday it looked to be more of a, a rebound, a little bit of a bear market bounce so to speak. i think looking forward right now, you have to understand when you think of this correction, i wouldn't think of it more in terms of price. but i would think of it more in terms of time. i think the majority of the price damage has been done, i just think we are not really going to recover back to josh's v bottom point. we're not going to recover any time quickly. this is going to stay with us for the next 30-45 days. >> it's not going to look like the end of last year. we do have atul lele, you're a ceo not scared by the recent gyrations, the u.s. is your firm's biggest holding and you've been on the show since early february or march predicting an emerging markets crisis. >> we've moved a lot of our clients out of emerging markets, out of high-yield credit. all of the carry trade sensitive assets. we have no exposure. where we do see opportunities and this goes to stephanie's
point is very much in the u.s. we are seeing consumer data improve and it's going to get better by virtue of the fact that gasoline prices are falling. we're seeing housing data improve and industrial production data sim proving notwithstanding today's ism. so we're looking at the u.s. economy which is experiencing not only an expansion, but quite a broad-based expansion. >> i guess the only push-back, guys have said the u.s. is calm and looks relatively good economically. we're seeing all the major selloffs are in the red, all dow components are in the red. manufacturing was above 50, but it did come in the weakest since 2013. wi are we underestimating the impact? >> it's emerging market driven, commodities driven. it's about whether we're going to see contagion from emerging markets into developing marks. that's the biggest risk. if it occurs, it will be occurring for the financial system. which is why we're staying away
from financials right now. but this is more of an emerging market problem than a developed market and a u.s. problem. >> so two of the names that you have are eaton and parker hanafan, pretty contrarian ideas at this point in cycle. are they company specific, or do you expect the end markets to improve? they both have energy exposure, but is there something more to those stories? >> it's more about the idea that industrial production is going to rebound. the way we measure that, we look at the difference between the ism new orders and the ism industry readings, we have seen it expanding. today's data had slipped a little bit. but the ism inventories balance, the best leading indicator of the production cycle is starting to expand. it's about us wanting to be in u.s. industrials and more to the point. domestically focused u.s. industrials. >> the pessimist would say, contagion is already here. take a look at brazil which is 7% of the emerging markets index. now below it's 2008 lows. which is pretty extraordinary. take a look at the leadership sector of the market for the
last 18 months. undeniably health care. the worst-performing sector in the august rout. biotechs getting schmeised as we're talking. those are fairly low leading indicators of appetites. to some extent we're talking about the sentiment that drives the multiple that we might be willing to pay or sell these stocks at. could you speak to that a little bit? >> sure, so it's a really interesting point thaw raise because when we talk about multiple expansion or contraction. we're talking about liquidity and globally liquidity is expanding. but u.s. dollar liquidity is not. u.s. dollar liquidity is slowing by virtue of what the fed is doing. the single biggest risk we see to markets outside of emerging markets, if we look at developed markets is that interest rates are going to rise, that's a tougher theme that causes pe contraction. that's what started to occur in august. when we look at opportunities, we not looking at the high pe names, we're looking at company which is are well exposed to the cycle and look to add value to
the speck strum trum. >> more of a margin of safety, you're not paying the top prices. >> when liquidity gets taken out of the system, the first thing you see is a hit on that. >> the china slowdown hitting broader markets, some companies are at greater risk than others. we're talking about names with big china exposure. dom chu has names for us. >> the folks at s&p capital iq crunch a lot of numbers. they take look at u.s. companies within the s&p 500 that have a lot of the sales exposure. business risk possibly. possibly to what's happening in china with the slowdown. among some of the names, first of all it's worth pointing out not every company breaks out their results by region or even specifically by country. so among the ones that do, check out applied materials. on the technology side. they make the equipment that makes computer chips is in essence what they do. they get about 18% of their sales as total sales from that china region.
avago technologies on the technology side. gets about nearly half of their sales from china specifically. broke out china as a geographic region. and then wynn resorts, about 72% comes from macao properties so the china exposure, these are three companies. among other companies that broadly kind of break out their exposure in terms of just the asia pacific region, apac, dow chemical gets 16% of total revenues from the asia pacific region. ibm, big blue, about a fifth of their sales from that region as well. and then expeditors international gets about half. these guys do shipping logistics, these are among the names that some traders are focused on in terms of china exposure. back to you. >> thank you very much. josh do you like any of these names despite the fact that they're exposed to the china slowdown? >> they all what they all also have in common in addition to the china story is they have horrendous technicals. the sellers are in control that
doesn't mean it can't change. but what i would say is tactically speaking, let it change. why would you want to catch a falling knife. like the wynn resorts, every time it puts in a bottom. somebody open as trap door in the floor and there's another 10 points down. you have a chance to let these things set back up for a better long. >> you want to focus on companies that are strong, strong positioned for the long-term. avago made an acquisition of broad com. but the stock is down 20%. it's going to diversify their markets and produce a lot of synergies and an upside to accretion to earnings. look at the balance sheets, look where their market share is and are they doing anything to even get better, this company certainly is. >> give you a reason to buy. let's look for the move that starts to show us there's a reason to buy. otherwise to josh's point. these charts look broken and this not just a china story. as dom was pointing out this is an asian market story as well. it's taiwan, korea, japan.
all of that area and obviously china itself. ma cow when you're talking about the casino world. but the pressure is on and people are going for those most exposed. they're hitting the sell button. we've got to wait until we see some sort of a rise back up. >> there's a difference between exposure to the china skirms and exposure to the chinese supply chain and manufacturing. atul, you have ford, google, apple among your top picks, these the all have exposure to the chinese consumer. >> they do. we counter that by being short china investment. that's the part of the economy slowing in a big way and the government is telling us it's slowing, shifting away from fixed asset towards consumption. thanks very much, one of the tips good to see you. when it comes to crude oil, one analyst says trade the facts, not nuts. what are the facts saying right now? and does the desk agree?
plus autos and airlines, auto sales continuing to see strong growth. the numbers looking good and airlines getting an upgrade on deutsche bank. we've got your transport trade next. and take a look at the s&p names that are hitting 52-week lows, tiffany, jb hunt, transport, but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro.
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. let's look at the financial sectorings, the second worst-performing group behind energy. all the s&p groups are down, financials and energy getting hit the hardest. financials down 3%, schwab, e-trade, citigroup, jp morgan and prudential are leading decliners. we want to get some color on the market sell-off. bring in steve grasso of stewart frankel. what is the number one thing you're watching? the sell-off doesn't feel as panicky as some of the ones we saw last week. >> probably one of the biggest problems from the sell-offs, we all get a little bit numb when you see the market off by a couple of hundred points or 20, 30, 40 handles in the s&p. we're all get a little hypnotize by the sell-offs, i believe
we're technically challenged and i think we have to test the lower levels than we did last week this is around a bounce level if you're a day trader, you probably look to buy some names right now. >> thank you for the tip, steve grasso at the s&p declines 2%. from airlines to autos, big headlines in the transportation sector, dom chu with a look at the transport today. >> big focus. american airlines, delta upgraded to a buy. the firm cited attractive valuations and positive impact of lower energy prices on the profit line. if you stick with the transports, august sales for aums, showing that that car and truck makers are soaring. ford and chrysler seeing boosts in sales. ford seeing the best august in nine years. selling 71,000 of f-150 trucks. general motors still selling 270,000 vehicles. toyota and nissan seeing sales
declines, but nowhere near what analysts are expecting. auto stocks are struggling to make gains today. ford holding up well in today's trade. sara, back to you. on the airlines, pete you're long. and stef i know you like delta. they're holding up well. >> they held up well yesterday. times when the tape was actually shooting down to the down side harsh and we were looking at some of the names in positive territory. now they're wavering around flat. i like the names, think it makes a lot of sense, deutsche bank talking about jet fuel prices, that made sense to me as well. these companies are printing money. when you go and travel, everybody knows capacities are strong. you look at the regionals as well. whether it's alaska or jetblue, some of the various names, you like the major carriers that was the folks that looked like this report. american and delta specifically. >> that will help their
earnings, in addition the companies are trying to cut costs, you can see positive operating leverage. in the second half of the year as comparisons get easier. >> i like the balance sheet. the capital allocation program and the fact thatt's trading eight times earnings, that's pretty cheap. >> i think the validation is the fact of what we've long anticipated, more waiting in the s&p 500 from the airline sector. you saw that, we expected it to occur. potentially, there are others that can be added. clearly i agree with all the strong fundamentals in the airline space right now. jetblue to me stands out as the favorite name in 2015. in the airline space. any type of difficult you want to buy and vergen america when you look at the earnings report, vergen america is the one airline -- virgin airlines, fundamental changes in earnings,
that gives you an opportunity to buy a name that hadn't been performing. >> alaska hasn't been talked about enough. alaska air includes the fact that they raised capacity out in the seattle area and they still managed to completely kill everybody out there. margins are strong. that's one of those airlines again like a jetblue where you actually have a little bit more leverage. less exposure internationally. >> that is down .5%. >> we'll give you the technical take, what are the charts telling us next for the roller coaster stock market. and how does a portfolio manager whose firm has $869 billion in assets under management navigate volatility. let's look at the dow right now. all 30 names are in the red. exxon, jp morgue republican tant losers.
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still what a sell-off the energy sector is the second worst performer, now down more than 2%. the move lower in energy being led noble energy, exxon mobile and valero. for more, let's head over to jackie de angelis on the floor of the nymex. we thought it was dizzying here watching stocks, it's been crazy to watch oil. >> a 24% gain or 27%. sorry in the last three days. very volume tiff swings in crude oil. what's your take on what's impacting it. it appears to be that every day it's something different. >> you know, yesterday it rallied on really jaw-boning and rhetoric from opec and i didn't expect that to last at all. it was definitely overdone to the upside. the bottom line is there's too much oil in the world. and unless that changed, i know the u.s. dropped a little bit.
unless that changes by a million barrel as day, oil is going to be pressured to the down side. that's probably why we're seeing a reversal, scott nation's volatility. how much longer can it go on? >> given what we're seeing in oil, we saw shorts get squeezed almost to death, i think we're going to see more volatility. we're going to see it to the down side as people start realizing opec is not going to cut production. i think that they're going to start shooting for the $40 level again. we start at 1:05 today. we're talking to louise yamada, a top technician, she's going to show us a chart that shows there could be more pain ahead for charts. sara, see you then. >> thanks for the discussion, jackie de angelis at the nymex. what should you do with energy
stocks? are there any compelling buys? they're getting hammered, joe. how long does the chunky volatility last? >> chunky. pete's a chunky volatility guy. energy equities have had a tremendous run over the last week and yesterday kind of was the opportunity to pare back some of your holding in the energy equity names. energy futures can rise and the energy equities cannot come along for the ride. that's the dynamic that we're faced with right now. oil could go to $50. do you see the acceleration in the energy equities. if there is one area that i think this is beneficial go back to what warren buffett did, and it's refiners. >> can you buy these energy names, some of which have been beaten up 40, 50, 60% so far this year. if you don't think the price of oil is done falling. >> i would say no and i would also say if you want a piece of any of these, you would want to do it as a rental.
you do it through options, you're going to get the snap days. we had the three-day run and we get the huge pull-back in oil. we watched the ovx, it was trading in the 40s so huge volatility obviously. with the volatility, if you are able to and if the options are telling you so, that's the opportunity. but otherwise in the stocks, new york city they cannot rise right now under the circumstances, unless oil is going to bring them along for the ride. >> so two things on this. the first is the very worst thing you can do, is watch something that continues to fall. and try to make up a reason for why you should buy it. it's probably one of the most dangerous investment behaviors. in the case of oil you're getting these moment air snap-backs, those are indicative of a bear market or a down trend. you don't get plus 3% or 4% days in an entire sector unless it's already selling off 7%, 8% per week. which is what we've been watching in this group. let that play out. watch for momentum divergence,
watch for rsi to start falling. watch for some of the names in the group to turn green while the overall index turns red. that's your signal that the sellers are running out of bullets. >> don't you have to be watching opec now that they're making noises about cutting production if you're short oil? >> you can't draw a line between what they say -- >> it wasn't just opec it was the eia report that got people excited. i think if you're a long-term investor you can look at the high-quality company the like a slumber jay, taking their balance sheet and making them a better company for the long-term. >> they're making themselves slonger and better. i think this is not a trade by any means. >> the best of both worlds, do you what stephanie suggests,
learn the companies, watch what's going on with them, figure it out and where the market is getting them wrong. but you give yourself a good entry point. >> that entry point might come at the end of september. because you're going to get earnings estimates revised lower in the energy space. coming up, we're looking at session lows, the pressure building on bank of america to split its chairman and ceo roles. is it right for the company to make this change? plus pete najarian has taken over our twitter account and is answering your questions all day long. >> i'm swamped. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets
the drought is affecting at pg&e we've definitely put a focus on helping our agricultural customers through the drought. when they do an energy efficiency project and save that money they feel it right in their pocket book. it's exciting to help a customer with an energy efficiency project because not only are they saving energy but they are saving water. we have a lot of projects at pg&e that can help them with that and that's extremely important while we're in a drought. it's a win for the customer and it's a win for california. together, we're building a better california.
i'm sharon epperson with your cnbc news update for this hour. kim davis, the kentucky clerk who won't issue marriage licenses to gay couples, along with her deputy clerks have been called for a federal court hearing thursday morning. davis is refusing again to issue licenses, despite a u.s. supreme court order, she's citing god's authority. three people were killed and 35 others injured when a suicide
bomber attacked a vehicle carrying a police commander in the northwest pakistan. the commander was one of the injured. the attacker blew himself up. michigan university researchers found that marijuana use among college students has reached the highest point since 1980. with 6% reporting they use pot every day. that surpasses their use of cigarettes. churchill downs announcing an $18 million renovation project. including a new stakes room and a facelift to its turf room and indoor boxes. back to you. want to show you where we are on the markets. session lows on the s&p 500 down 2.25%. all the major sectors in the state departme s&p are in the red. all sectors are down at least
1.5%. with today's moves. 39% of the nasdaq 100 is now in bear market territory. the biggest movers, keurig green mountain, wynn, micron. netflix is at the bottom of the s&p 500, the winner by far in the s&p for 2015. let's talk about the market moves with the chief market technician at mkm partners. he's got the charts and the levels to watch on the s&p 500 where are we looking to test the lows? >> we look at the chart of the s&p we know we have the big long-term trading range for most of the year that results to the down side move. one of the most violent move we've seen in the past four years since 2011. we made the intraday low last month. around 1867 on the s&p 500. the futures made a low around 1830 before the cash market opened. generally when you see downside moves of that magnitude. like we saw back in august of 2011 you see a retest. we think we're going to head
back down, retest that area, now what is a retest? we think somewhere 1% to 2% within those lows, it doesn't mean we necessarily have to break the lows, we have to get down there and kind of revisit that area. another thing we're watching is the breadth of the market. so we know we have about 30% of the s&p 500 is above the 200-day, the least amount of stocks we've seen since 2011. we know breadth is awful. one thing we're going to do if we retest the lows, if we see an improvement in breadth. right now we're at 30%. if we retest the lows and see 40% above the 200-day, that could set up a potential rebound rally. >> i want to get thoughts on the desk. josh brown are you expecting us to retest the lows and is that bearish on the s&p in. >> the history suggests when you have a violent move down and you get about half of a recovery and you start to roll again, you are going to retest.
it doesn't mean you have to break through. i want to ask jonathan, over the last couple of years, when they've got down to the level, you've got 30% of the stocks in the s&p above their 200-day, that's been the contrarian buy signal. that's where the markets bounced from. do you think there's a chance that could be, picture changed so dramatically, that we can't rely on that any more? >> there's the chance and we are seeing some extreme downside readings that can lead to a bounce. the issue for us if you look at the slope of the 200-day moving average. it started to inflict down for the first time in four years. now that doesn't necessarily mean it has to be a change in the trend but it's something we haven't seen in three or four years. which means oversold bounce bowses are less likely to stick. the primary trent in our view shifts to an uptrend to neutral. so you have to be careful about using oversold readings. >> and quickly show us the
energy etf as we look at another steep slide in oil. >> so energy has been a big topic of conversation. we are at a 25% move in crude in three days. josh had mentioned earlier. that's the type of moving that happens in bear markets. we think the energy xl etf hitting resistance at the declining 20-day moving average. we're a seller of energy, looking for a move back down. >> joe, did you want to comment? s&p or the oil relationship? >> back for 9 s&p chart for one second. what is the lesson of 2011 teach us? i know a lot of folks pay significant attention to the 200-day moving average and the amount of time you spend below it it seems as though we're spending a lot of time below, we did it in 2011. is there an indicate that are tells you that it's a fake out? >> there's unfortunately, there's not really. but again, the main thing that we're concerned about here is the slope of that 200-day. back in 2011, it did start to inflict down for a few weeks or a month.
and that resulted in just a temporary low and we rallied to the end of the year. i will say that at all major tops if you're talking about 2000, 2007, they do start with a moving, 200-day moving average and it starts to roll over. we're not saying it's anything like that we're saying we have to be a bit careful trying to bottom fish when the 200-day is starting to turn down. >> the level on the s&p intraday low was 18? >> 1867 and the futures is 1830. >> we're at 1926. not quite there yet. as the market continues to tumble, there are many names that are high quality and good bargains, according to stephanie link, tiaa cref portfolio manager. >> expect volatility to continue. i think i said i think we're going to be in the trading range until october, until we get past the macro-only dominance in the market. i think you have to look at where are the pockets of strength. i think there are pockets of
strength in the consumer. we saw a lot of various data points in housing, auto sales in consumer confidence and sentiment. the jobs number will be fine, i don't think you'll get a great number, but you'll be fine. that's very supportive of buying consumer-related stocks, something like google or starbucks. housing side, i talked about eagle materials and louisiana pacific. those are not as obvious plays if you will. but i'm also looking at the home builders to see if we see a pullback. two weeks ago we got good data from home depot and lowe's. other themes are payment, payment processors like a visa, masterca mastercard, paypal. i think you'll see double-digit erjs growth from all of these guys, and i think the margin upside is robust. i favor visa. but i think you can own that theme. i think you want to own in technology cloud and security. remember not long ago we got salesforce.com who beat and
raised and is positioned very well for operating margin expansion over the next couple of quarters, as well as 20% topline growth. as all of these stocks come in, they are quality companies with good balance sheets, you want to take advantage for the long-term i. not saying they're going to trade right up. if you can average in and pick your spots, i think long-term you'll be okay. >> all right, stephanie link. the home builders are getting caught up in today's sell-off. they have been popular on the desk as well. despite a 10% rally this year, citigroup says it's time to take a ride on fedex's stock. plus gopro taking a hit today, the stock down more than 50% from its all-time high. we go around the desk for the trade on this.
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is tht start of a bear market? how to protect your portfolio, we're all over is that one. there are a bright spots in the market, if you know where to look. we've been doing the looking for you, three big opportunities on this down day. and automakers are out with their latest sales figures, will all the fears about the chinese economy put a dent in demand? we'll talk about the outflow for automakers in light of that. we'll be back at the top of the hour. we're at the center of the action, thanks. we want to show you what's happening with the markets, the sell-off is picking up steam. the s&p 500 is now off 2.5%. the dow jones industrial average is also falling by more than 400 points at this hour. nasdaq now down more than 2%. it was faring a little better earlier and the small cap russell stocks are getting hit. oil still down about 7%. at one point, the s&p 500 all 500 names were in the red. we're seeing barely some names
in the green right now. the sell-off is deepening, joe. what are you watching as to why? >> charted the euro dollar, i think you have to have a high degree of patience and understanding that a lot of what's going on right now is in the currency markets an unwind of the carry trade. >> dollar-yen is showing it. you're seeing the yen appreciating around the 119 level. i think you have to pay attention to that and the euro over the last couple of days has been a good leading indicator as far as where the s&p is going to go. the strong dollar trade collapsing, buying the yen is a safe haven gold is rising on a safe haven bid. >> since we started the show 46 minutes ago. take a look at the simpb vb, it's dropped five or six points. you look at tech that pulling down, the names that were already in the red have accelerated over the last 45 minutes. that's pulling the markets down
as well. on top of what you're talking about, euro, gold, oil. >> stephanie, we should make the point that we're in september. but this is still the week of labor day weekend. are these moves being exacerbated by the fact that there's not a lot of traders at the desk? >> there's not a lot of traders, a lot of people on vacation, i hope they're having a great time. >> what if they get called back on days like today? >> i don't think so. i guess some shops could. but i think longer-term investors are going to take this in stride like we're trying to do at cref. the one sector i'm watching are the financials, because they had had a nice move. they've rolled over, people are concerned that the fed is not going to raise rates in september. maybe not even into december if this kind of turmoil continues in the macroenvironment. i'm not saying they're not going to raise rates, but i think this group if they roll over, that's your issue. because i think they had been leaders. and if you lose that leadership, it's a big part of the s&p.
>> vice chairman stanley fisher did say he was watching market volatility. with the dow down more than 400 points, we look at the nasdaq 100. nearly half of those stocks are in correction territory. despite the hit today. one of the street's tech favorites is still up more than 100% this year. so far that stock and the trade on it next. plus, it's twitter takeover time. pete najarian in charm of "halftime"'s account. i bet you got a lot of questions on the market sell-off.
welcome back to "the halftime report." i'm josh lipton. nearly 40% of the nasdaq 100 falling into bear market territory. let's look at three pig names. one would be apple, down nearly 20% from its 52-week high. one worry, of course, for investors, the tech giant generating about 25% of its sales from china. another name in the red, netflix, also off about 20% from its high. still up more than 100% so far this year. biggest gainer in the spx. similar story for amazon, down about 10% from its high. still well in the green year to date. mark nutrior of gray wolf says the stock looks vulnerable in the near term. doesn't rule out a test, he says, of last week's lows of 451 and take a look at gopro down
from its high and still up 80% from its ipo last summer. sara, back to you. >> is getting ugly. everyone here on the desk, almost everyone is long apple. josh, you own netflix. unusual to see it at the bottom of the s&p 500, down 8% right now. >> netflix is like the highest beta of high beta and shareholders have become accustomed to that kind of action and trade verse learned to take advantage. apple is shockingly weak. i think this stock has probably been beaten up more than what it deserves but i think that's the point, right? you can have a company with absolutely no fundamental change whatsoever, and its stock price can under go a 20% move up or down. happens all the time. it's part of what being a long-term investor is about. you've got to be able to endure that. the entire nasdaq looks bad. apple looks much worse than it should relative to some of the names in there, but it is what it is. >> what's the catalyst, september 9th when the new
iphone is set to be unveiled? >> could be, but if the entire market is still in caniption territory, won't matter what they unveil. >> i do want to clarify about the skeleton crew. art cashin said the problem with that is you're seeing billion dollars in terms of the trade. these are high-volume selloffs. is that worrisome? >> i think it's real. the price action is real today. i don't know necessarily if trading desks are as light as we think they might be. my kids are back to school. josh's kids are back to school and a lot of kids are not back to school but generally when the kids go back to school, you're in the office and you're trading, and i see a little bit of that today, so, yeah, i am concerned. >> i might have to pull them out of school. >> all 30 dow members are in the red. all 500 s&p names in the red. coming up, as the mark sets near intraday lows, we've got your game plan for second half of the day. don't go away.
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pete najarian taking over our halftime twitter report all day and questions are rolling in. let's ask answer a few on air. do you ever look at technical indicator and anything other than options. >> i go through all different kinds of metrix, technicals are one of them options are the catalyst and after that there's different metrix. >> what is your favorite bear etf? >> i would say that the only way i ever triad trade to the downside is been through this p spidr. >> and pablo wants to know he's also in the name? >> i loves ex1 as well, a space that i love. great potential in oncology, biotech. a lot of pitfalls in that world and that's why i'm in options only. >> is the nfl anything like the hbo show like "ballers? ". >> much more intense and
incredible and makes "ballers" look like a jock. the rock is a man. >> nice job. >> well gone. >> pete, that was pretty good. there's no bonus question. any other thoughts? what people seem to want to know is indications that things are really bearish, whether they are etfs or technical indicators, that things will get worse from here. we're looking at session lows. s&p now down 2.6%. >> i just think what's going to be most frustrating is this is going to be a time event. last week was the price event and this is the time event. i don't think you're going to see the significant snapback any time soon. >> make your shopping list and focus on the theme as was spoken about earlier, where there are pockets of strength and that's where you want to go and you also want to see which sectors
in the market, in these declines, which sectors are outperforming on a relative basis. all down, but which group is down the least? if it's the staples and utilities, that's a defensive kind of attitude, but actually yesterday the utilities were the worst performing group so keep an eye on which sectors are leading and lagging. >> words of wisdom, josh brown? >> i think the one comment made earlier on our show that really should resonate with everyone is that we're now in a downtrend, and that's something that you've not been able to say for approaching four years now and what that means is that market behavior changes and the range of possible outcomes on any selloff are much broader than what they are when you're in a market uptrend. you get a lot more tail risk, a lot more of these massive, you know, plus three or down 3% days. it's par for the course when you're not trading above a long-term trend and you're trading below it, and i think people have to kind of adjust their attitudes and maybe even their expectations for that reality. >> you know what's interesting is mcdonald's is actually
holding up the best, mcdonald's and coke cha in the dow jones industrial average. >> defensive stocks, right? >> consumer names. >> classic defensive names. >> with dividend yields. got to leave it there. that does it for us here on "halftime" report. "power lunch" begins right now. >> "halftime" is over and "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day starts right now. >> i'm brian sul van. the bears are making a roaring comeback. the dow back in correction. down more than 425 points right now. incredibly there is only one stock in the s&p 500 that's higher right now. the markets have been making big moves during "power lunch," so we're watching these indexes like a hawk all for you. and there are really two big questions that we need to answer over the the next couple of hours. number one, why is this selloff happening? is it china? is it a combination? is it something else? also, of course, we have got oil, and what do you do with your money right now? do you buy, sell, hold and wait? oil falling.