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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 18, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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levels, and what they're doing here in the united states and how dhe lower the input costs. can they manage it all together. >> fair enough. lots to look forward to. thank you for both joining me. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site, overlooking new york city's times square. kim, dan, karen and guy. one of the hottest stocks in the dow took a tumble today. it could be serving up a major warning sign for the economy. we'll tell you what it is and what it could mean for the markets. plus, what was that? steve wozniak giving a strange interview. we'll see what he says that's got everybody talking. crude doing something it has not done since 1950. it could mean the end of the low oil prices. that's next. but first, we start off with the markets snapping the three-day winning streak. most interesting was the massive rally in the so-called safe
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haven assets. gold rallying hard again today, jumping 2%, adding to this year's gains. a big move in the ten-years. investors start piling into the bond market. the yield back below 1.8%. are we seeing signs of the merge, and could it spell trouble for stocks, guys? >> let's address each one of them. utilities are doing well. dan's talked about it. people looking for yield. let's back that one out. gold has not sold off in any real way, shape or form over the last week or so, like it should have if in fact it were still in a bear market. the gold market is still intact. it feels like it wants to go higher. the bond market is a bounce in what was probably an oversold condition. we went to 1.55% yield. spiked back up north of 180. this rally in the bond market makes a lit bit of sense. i thought the encouraging thing was the fact that all the x gets under pressure.
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it feels like we're putting a bottom in the oil market, despite the fact it went lower today. i think the ovx is telling you that tim is on to something. the fact that the s&p was only down eight or nine handles, i thought it was a pretty constructive day. >> gold and the ten-year and oil go in the same trade, and the dollar. the dollar is largely running into a wall and will be at least sideways for an extended period of time. our guests from jpmorgan last night pointed out that the break-through, the capitulation, maybe the exaggerated move up to 1260 an ounce was a very good move. we had a rally, and it was very bold for gold. i don't think there's any reason to run from gold. the negative interest rate environment is the best argument yet for gold in the last five years, i heard, especially during the bull era of where gold was. to me, i don't believe this was a short covering rally.
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there was buying of value. there was correlations breaking down. >> this is a pause? today is a pause? >> a pause that refreshes. >> i think you guys are trying to be constructive. i think it's a -- i think what happened today with the s&p down 47, when you look at the rally, the tlt, it was up 1.5%, gold up 2.5%. to me, that actually speaks volumes to the fact that we're probably going to retap a bit of the 6% move that we had from last thursday, in the coming days. even though equities -- >> i can't disagree with that. >> i think the problem is, if you see those risk-off assets going up the way they did today, i don't that's constructive. >> i didn't think they moved that dramatically, considering the move we had in the four days up to now. the volatility index was down on the day. and the market was down slightly, considering what a big move it is. i don't know, i thought there
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was not -- i did not sense any kind of panic at all in anything, and a week ago it was a vastly different story. >> i thought the banks, though, jpmorgan 2.5% at one point. i thought deutsche bank was down 4%. i disagree with you guys. i tell you that i think you did have a short covering rally, and i'll tell you, the s&p is still hitting a massive downtrend. its inability to get above the high earlier in the month is a problem. if we start going lower, it could feed on itself and snowball a little bit. i would expect before we see a move back to 2000, another hundred points, i think we go another hundred points lower. >> i'm trying to find the silver lining here, but given the fact we went from 1810 in the s&p, we traded 1930 today. so that's 2 1/2, three trading days, the s&p should have been down a lot more today, given what we saw in gold, given what we saw in the bond market.
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again, what we saw in the banks. maybe it flushes tomorrow. but i thought overall it was good. >> i don't think we have to continually make this a polarized conversation. to me, markets are moving sideways. we're getting an earnings correction. they've been correcting for six months. hold on a second. let me finish. >> but there's a massive -- >> one at a time, guys. >> equities are correcting. that's fine. we're in a situation where at the beginning of the year, you had credit issues, you had oil, you had all these things piling on at a time when liquidity was terrible. everybody saying the u.s. is going to a recession. you get to a place people don't know what to do. central banks don't know what they're doing. we're in agreement on a lot of this stuff. >> what did you do today? >> what i did a little bit yesterday, we talked about this, i threw some puts back out there. i agree, markets have had a nice rally. i'm a trader. i trade some of the stuff around. >> you bought puts? >> i bought puts. yesterday afternoon.
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i brought them in and threw them back out. >> what did you do today? >> i actually think that the tlt is a trade. i know guy feels that way. i've been looking for an opportunity to get back in utilities. i disagree with tim, we are not going sideways. we've been in a massive downtrend here, for more than six months. i think the inability to get a head of steam, speak to the fact that we're probably going to break the 1810 in the next few weeks, couple months or so. and when we go down, there's an air pocket at 1800 and 1600. >> the xle, only about 1%. oil may have found a bottom. let's find out why. ari, what are you looking at? >> there's a potential important level here. rule number one to investing, tonight time lows. we do not recommend a long position oil. here's why this level is
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important. possibly reduce $26 level. this was the ceiling for oil throughout the 1980s and 1990s. can this be a floor now? i have to see it first. i think best case is that you're sideways for a number of years. if you get a pop, i think $38 is the level to sell it at. here's where you can expect some stabilizati stabilization. here's the monthly performance of oil. march to august. best six months of the year. so, again, add support where you expect it to be stable. here's why it's important. it's not about buying oil. it's about when to buy stocks again. here's your equal weighted commodity index overlaid with the s&p 500. there's your bubble in commodity prices. that was the bust. now we have to get to a point we start to move sideways. it's not low oil prices, it's low and stable oil prices.
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that's what we saw in the 1950s and 1960s, coinciding with the secular bull market in equities. that's what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s, coinciding with a consecutive bull market for s&p 500. until oil can start to stabilize, i think that would be very bullish for equities, but i think the assumption is we are still in this bear cycle. both stocks and commodities. >> what i'm hearing from you, ari, are that you wouldn't necessarily be calling a bottom in oil, but you wouldn't be short here, and in terms of being long equities because of the stabilization in oil, it's too early to call? >> that's right. you want to be very selective with your equities exposure. >> who's right, tim or dan? >> i think dan's correct here. i think you get to 1965. i don't think we've seen the end of this. i think there's more stabilization that's needed. wouldn't be surprised if we made new lows here. but i think first half of the year wouldn't be surprised if we see the final inflection that we
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could be closer to the end rather than the beginning. >> new lows in the s&p 500, correct? >> that's what we think. >> ari, thank you. technical levels and calls ari's putting forward? >> i favor what dan's been saying. the point was about today specifically, it korv -- given the last three or four trading days, it could have been and should have been worse, given what we've seen before. i'm trying to find something encouraging. oil, huge reversal the other day leads me to believe that maybe for the short term oil has bottomed, like tim has been saying, which should be good for the s&p. i thought there were a lot more constructive things today than destructive things. >> we trade stocks also, we don't just trade the s&p. to talk about parts of the market and just say the entire market is the s&p i think is a conversation that's not always the right conversation to have. let's put it that way. transports are doing very well, industrials are doing very well. they were beaten and bludgeoned last year.
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you have to look at this. when you look at oil companies here, you have to figure out, and again, tsoro was the one place to hide out. it's a seasonal maintenance period. it looks interesting now. it crowded trade that got sold off now that everybody's feeling okay about oil, or maybe they're not but they should be. >> are you looking at oil stocks now? >> not so much. no, i have stuff that i like. but i want to say, i think he's so spot-on. last year everyone said the market was terrible, except for three stocks that really held the market up. so this year, you can find many stocks -- >> no, you're wrong -- >> but the -- >> the market was terrible last year. a couple dozen stocks doing all the heavy lifting. the relative strength of the stocks that are performing -- walmart is a great example. we're going to talk about it. walmart down 30% last year. it was up 8% in the results this
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morning. they guided down for the full year. there's nothing good going on at walmart. >> i believe that. last night i said i would not own walmart. >> i think when you get the industrial stocks and results from the transports, at some point for q-1, you're going to see that stable oil at 30 is not such a great thing for the global economy. >> i think for you to say all stocks and put it in one basket like that -- >> they're acting well this year. the ones that got pummeled last year. >> let's -- what's the problem with that then? >> it's not healthy. it's not the sort of thing that will lead the market back to the prior high. if i had retailers that didn't do well last year, and they're doing well this year -- >> holistically things are very -- >> i'm not talking holistically. >> i think it's a complicated discussion. it's a good discussion. ultimately there's a lot of things that i think macro are
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really very concerning. but ultimately we're in a place -- i'm not going to try to tell you that the u.s. economy right now is in an upward trajectory. i like everybody. the ism actually, you know, the industrial side of the economy lead the economy and we're heading to recession. but emerging? minors, industrials, these things are up on the year, at least good parts of them. and to say that you should be throwing everything out the window, i think is -- i'm not sure dan's saying that, but we don't all trade the s&p. >> by the way, for those of you out there on twitter, we want to know what you think about this conversation. and also, we want to ask you whether you think crude oil is down to floor. we've got a live poll up right now. tweet us and let us know. tweet us anytime with any comments about the show. breaking news on the race for the white house. chief washington correspondent john harwood is down in south carolina with the latest. hi, john. >> reporter: hi, melissa. we've got new nbc news "wall street journal" poll numbers in the national democratic race for
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president. and they show bernie sanders, the self-proclaimed democratic socialist in vermont, pulling close to secretary of state hillary rodham clinton. she leads him 53% to 42% in the national poll of democratic primary voters. that is half of the size of the lead that hillary clinton had, 25 points a month ago. if you go look at the state by state races which is where this race is playing out, the race next moves to nevada where there are caucuses this weekend. you have a virtual tie there. hillary clinton with a very narrow lead there. bernie sanders could win there. that is a notable break-through for him because there are significant numbers of hispanic voters. that's one of the bullworths that hillary clinton is counting on. in south carolina, where i'm standing now, the south carolina republican primary is this weekend. the democratic primary is a week later. hillary clinton still has a lead of more than 20 percentage points. this is what they truly hope to be their firewall.
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bernie sanders is posing an increasing threat to her and we'll see how she handles that threat over the next two contests, melissa. >> john harwood, thanks to you. the hottest stocks, we'll tell you why some traders sounding the alarm on the economy. that's next. it's waz's world. we're just living in it. apple co-founder steve wozniak speaks out about the biggest controversy in america. what he said and why it's got a lot of people scratching their heads. stocks surged 6% off the recent lows. surprising names have sat out the rally. we'll tell you what they are. and if now is the best time to buy them.
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man 1: he just got fired. man 2: why? man 1: network breach. man 2: since when do they fire ceos for computer problems? man 1: they got in through a vendor. man 1: do you know how many vendors have access to our systems? man 2: no. man 1: hundreds, if you don't count the freelancers. man 2: should i be worried? man 1: you are the ceo. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems.
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welcome back to fast money. nordstrom falling more than 7% in after-hours trade. they missed on the top and bottom lines due to warm weather and heavy discounting in order to clear excess inventory from the holiday season. nordstrom's quarterly comparative sales were helped by strong demand for beauty products and shoes. but again, investors seem to be
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focused on the guidance. >> thank you, seema mody. this is one area you don't want to be in pretty much these days, department stores. >> department stores is a tough place to be. these guys had a very bad earnings report last time around. and then this doesn't look good. some spending, but also they had inventory issues. you know, they had margin issues as they cleared out that inventory. it's not great, but nordstrom's bounced off the lows, but it's down a lot from historical. it's sort of in limbo, because it isn't cheap. >> that's the issue. you compare this to a macy's or someplace where i think there's a lot more of a balance sheet argument. okay, we get best of breed, we get there's some defensiveness there. >> it's been an engine that's slowing. >> and less diversified. these guys are tied to fewer horses. the problem with this company is that it's not cheap enough. i think there's value in the
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retail space. this is not where it is. even for a very, very good company, with a good balance sheet. >> i feel like you're going to bring up -- >> macy's. >> oh, no. i thought you would go tj maxx. >> like fashionista. when i heard karen talk about the inventory, i thought -- >> tj maxx, we talked about this three years ago. they've clearly been winning. that's a game that they are dominating. we talked about macy's. that bottomed in the middle of december. it's actually traded rather well since then. they had one little hiccup a couple weeks ago. it's $41 off of 34 and change low. i think macy's continues, the stock at least continues to be interesting here. i agree with you, i think nordstrom's pushes back down to 44. i think macy's pushes up toward 44. >> walmart reporting a rough quarter today. that takes up the top trade today. taking a hit after a strong start to the year. it cut its guidance, just the
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walmart a problem or something about the economy? >> i don't think it's a problem with the economy. i think the low-end consumer is a healthy segment to be in. there was a time this was an oversold company that i think on valuation you could make an argument that it would be a challenging take. i think after these numbers, you can see what looked like a turn-around in their last quarter's numbers is very difficult for these guys to make. lower food prices, basically significantly pushed down the top line. this is where these guys, a lot of these guys are seeing growth. i would not be pushing the stock down. it's not a stock that i thought some of these correlating trends were reversing. >> i thought the stock traded very poorly in the morning. i thought it caught steam in the afternoon. i think it will go back to the downtrend that it's been in since early 2015. here's the thing. here's a company that has no earnings leverage, no growth.
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it does have the dividend yield here. they'll spend massively to compete with amazon. there's massive fundamental issues with the company itself. i think in the press release, they actually suggested that gas, low gas could be a -- finally a tailwind for their consumer. but as gas prices go up because of a supply thing, not because of an uptick in the economic demand, then it's really bad for these guys. there's no reason this company should trade at a market multiple. which it does. i think you'll see -- >> headwinds? they already spent a lot of money, and this is the result. the quarter was a result. >> they lost $12 billion as a result of the strong dollar. >> right. >> higher wages, investments and renovations. >> that's part of this. >> yeah. guy? >> walmart to me, i mean, i think they're trying to make the change. i don't think they can do it right now. i think walmart, there's no growth there. what exactly are you paying for at this point? i think the stock will continue to flounder.
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i think you've got to be cautious. >> put it what it was, 55 to 66. >> two months ago, they thought, three to four, is that what we were talking about? now they announced flat. if they don't have any transparency from november to the beginning of february, how are they going to have transparency for the entire year? that's sort of hard to fathom. i don't know, maybe they're just sandbagging. >> still ahead, yahoo! ceo marisa meyer reversing course again today. is it too little too late for the stock. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> that's what the market's done in the last week. but surprisingly three very important stocks have sat out the rally. and it could have implications for your money. we'll explain. plus -- >> terrorism is a phony word being used. >> in a jaw-dropping interview
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on cnbc, steve wozniak comes out and says -- nothing. and it's got the whole world talking. what it could mean for apple shares, when "fast money" returns. can a business have a mind?
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a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul?
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can a business be...alive?
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welcome back to "fast money." a news alert out of d.c. ayman? >> hi, melissa. in the past couple of minutes now, on this whole controversy over apple versus the fbi. the dow jones reporting that the senate intelligence committee chairman of north carolina is now working on a proposal legislatively that would pass a new law that would create criminal penalties for companies that don't comply with legal court orders by the united states courts to help in the decryption of information that the law enforcement wants. that is a proposal from the senate committee chairman. i have to tell you, this is probably what the fbi would like to see. probably not what apple would like to see. and with a republican-controlled house and senate, you could see something like this ultimately get passed. and remember, the white house, the obama white house has said they are siding with the department of justice in this
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particular fight. so could this be a bipartisan moment here in washington against apple? we'll have to wait and see how that all plays out. the stars are aligning now that washington sees this differently than silicon valley. >> a fight against apple, in terms of criminal charges, are we talking about throwing tim cook into jail? i mean, something along that line? >> yeah, you're creating criminal penalties for the companies, that could be something that they're working on. this is just an initial report now of what senator burr burr is working on behind the scenes. we don't know exactly what he has in mind here. we don't know whether his colleagues in the senate will go for that. speaker of the house, paul ryan, a republican, would have to weigh in on any legislation that moves through the house. this will be consider at the highest levels. there are a lot of members of congress who don't like the idea here that apple can simply say no to a court order lawfully given when there is a legal
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search warrant in place. that's not very popular in washington. in silicon valley, any legislation passed here in d.c. is going to be equally unpopular. >> i'll treat you like a legal expert, but let's say this is going on with samsung. could criminal penalties be -- could samsung's ceo be subject to the same penalties? >> i think -- >> in ther sni. >> there are probably lawyers watching this who will know the answer better than i do, but i think if the united states under such a law going after the u.s. operating division of any foreign company, then where that goes in terms of the foreign company's foreign executives, i wouldn't speculate. >> fascinating development. thank you. >> yeah, it is. you bet. >> wow. that could be a major development if this happens. >> well, i mean, this is such -- we talked about it last night. very emotional issue. i want to be clear, i don't need my government to do a lot of things for me, but one is to
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protect me. i need my government to do very little for me other than protect me. this is one thing that's so obvious to me. if someone quotes me ben franklin one more time, i mean, isis was not around when ben frank ly franklin was waving his flag. the stance that's taken to me is a problem. >> by the way, i just want to -- we want to get a sound byte before we continue this discussion. we spoke to steve wozniak today on "power lunch," and we asked him what steve jobs would do in this instance. here's what he said. >> i don't think that the phones should have back doors. i think apple's value in profits is largely based on an item called trust. trust meaning you believe somebody. you believe you're buying a phone with encryption. it shouldn't have hidden back doors, and ways that -- you don't know what's going to happen in the future. tell you what, you don't have
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anything to hide, right, brian? >> what's that? >> you don't have anything to hide? you don't care if i've got a back door to everything you've done for the last five years, right? >> obviously he's backing tim cook. he believes that steve jobs would have sided with tim cook. what's your take? is apple handling this right? because it's becoming a much bigger issue than if they said, you know what, we're going to do everything we can at this point to try and help. >> i think obviously tim just said it. i think apple is in a very difficult position. i think they picked a good battleground situation to show their customers they're there for them. i'm not saying whether they're right or wrong, but this is a situation where i don't -- listen, i think the government's going to get the information that they want one way or another. here's the situation that i think america has agreed upon what happened in san bernardino was a bad thing, and let's figure out if there are any other cells. this should not be placed on apple's shoulders. i think if it was microsoft, or whoever it might be, they all would have taken the same
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stance. >> true. we've seen the reaction of silicon valley. did we want, or did the industry want this to get to the point where they're going to propose legislation that would -- >> it makes them look good on some level. >> congress? >> for these companies to defend their product and customers in a way that appears loyal, is it real? >> got it. but i'm sure nobody in the industry wanted to get to the point where it would be a possibility that somebody serves criminal time for not handing over the keys to the kingdom, so to speak. >> right. tim, when you say you want the government to protect you, apple is saying, we're protecting you. >> i get it. but the protecting me -- >> i was actually -- we were talking about this during the break, i'm surprised they didn't behind the scenes just see if they couldn't broker something. now tim cook's kind of stuck. it reminds me of a newspaper and a source, right? >> so they can look good?
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>> what would this do to the tech industry if this legislation managed to pass -- and it's a long way off, but let's just play, because we like to do that. >> i don't know -- i'm not trying to duck your question. what does it do to apple is really the question you've got to boil it down to. it's clear now to me at least that both sides are going to dig their heels in now. because that's what happens when everybody gets their feathers up. that's what's exactly what's happened here. what does it mean for the stock? if it becomes politicized, if you hear people say, let's boycott apple products, which is not out of the realm of possibility in today's world, does it have a meaningful effect? tim is a very bright guy that is very emotional about this, for good reason. other people get equally emotional. if you start hearing people saying, you know what, don't buy apple anymore, buy this, buy that, it could have a meaningful effect. it could. >> there actually could be a positive for apple. if there was some sort of
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legislation, and let's say lg or somebody said we're not going to sell here, because we don't want to be subject to this -- i don't know if that's what they would do. it could be a good thing. because apple is going to end up giving it. it's a fact. >> i don't know about that. but we'll see. >> by the way, out of curiosity, we did a twitter poll to see who supported which side. 60% sided with tim cook. 40% with the government. thinking that apple should create the back door. >> i wonder if the twitter followers maybe -- >> still ahead, don't call it a comeback yet. stocks snapping a winning streak. a couple curious names missed out on the recent rally. we'll tell you what they are. one group of stocks rallying emerging markets. there was a huge trade that raised a lot of eyebrows today. we'll give you all the details when "fast money" returns. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today.
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welcome back to "fast
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money." stocks breaking their three-day winning streak with all the major indices ending in the red. the s&p managing to close above 1900 despite slipping lowers as well. the nasdaq underperforming, dow and s&p closing down 1%. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." marisa meyer making surprising comments about mobile. what she said and why it could spell more trouble for yahoo! the battle for your tv. we'll tell you why the streaming giant came out with a big win and why it could be more bad news for the major cable companies. despite the bounce in stocks this week, several names have been left out of the recent rally. for more, let's go to someone who never feels left out, dom chu. dom? >> well, melissa, i don't know if i'd go that far, but i do like to stay involved and in the middle of all the action. at least from a short-term perspective, these are some of the stocks, like you said, that haven't really participated in the upside action.
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some are last year's winners that haven't really been keeping pace in 2016. among them, video game publication action blizzard. shares have been on a downfriend along with the overall market this year. even with those bigger gains over the last few days, the stock is still lower over the course of the past one week. then there's oil refiner tsoro, struggling energy sector last year. it gained big as well last year. remember, but it's been on a lozing side of things for 2016. the market really bounced. hasn't lifted their shares that much. it's still down over a one-week period as well. a number of these utility stocks left behind in the rally. take con ed for instance, a big winner, especially over the last few months as investors looked for yields as interest rates dropped. con ed hit a record high earlier in the month but hasn't gotten a big bid over the course of the past week. it was positive in today's
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trade. these interest rate sensitive plays like utilities could be something to watch in the next few weeks. >> let's try some of these names. guy? >> we got sidetracked. ibm is a stock left for dead for the last two years. recently gotten a little bit of a bounce. moved big today on the back of the morgan stanley upgrade. grs people will say, they're going to get their growth back. i disagree. the report in april, i think this rally can be faded. i think ibm's been left for dead. i think other people have taken their crown over, not the least of which has been microsoft. >> ibm, the explicit comparisons of microsoft, the cloud, the big data, et cetera, about the same growth rates as microsoft. ibm doesn't get respect.
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should it? >> the long term is probably 20 points lower. it almost got there. you know, to me, i actually think you could fade the stock at 140 bucks. i think you're probably going to see a move back there. it will be an ugly year for these guys. consensus earnings estimates is calling for down 10% this year. it probably gets there. they have a lot of dollar exposure, a lot of competition in the cloud, in the revenues. i don't think there's anything that constructive. if you're averaging in and have a long-term time raising, somebody's going to pick ibm at some sort. >> tesoro is one that was a loved defensive name for the oil sector players. it had to be there. for the ones that actually have not rallied here, i also is a sign of strength. facebook didn't sell off that much, because i think high quality names were defensive on the way down. they didn't have to rally that far up. i think that's also very indicative. we're talking about a trading range that was notable. >> still ahead, is cable under siege? we'll tell you about the major
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decision out of d.c. today that could be good for you, but bad for the cable industry. plus, one trader is making a $3.5 million bet on a major emerging market rally. we'll explain later this hour. much more "fast money" still ahead.
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welcome back to "fast money." today the fcc is a step closer to dramatically shifting the way media is consumed in america. ayman? >> hi, melissa. the vote was 3-2 in the fcc today in a measure pro proceedsed by the chairman to allow new companies to get access to the table set top box business. a business that a lot of us don't necessarily think about. but tom wheeler, who wants to really open that up to other cable companies, competitors, including potential companies like apple, and google, to have access to the business, obviously the cable industry opposes this. but here's what tom wheeler had to say today as the commission met. take a listen. >> law mandates it. technology allows it. the industry at one time proposed something similar to it.
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and consumers deserve a break and a choice. >> now, melissa, wheeler had said here he thinks that the average consumer is paying something like $200 a year to lease that cable set top box. he would like a lot more competitors to be able to have access to that market. this is the beginning of his process, not the end of it. there's now going to be a comment period and long time before we get to any kind of final rule making by the fcc. obviously the cable industry was opposed to this measure today. you can imagine they will continue to fight it as it moves through this process. we should, of course, note here cnbc's parent company is comcast and they're involved in this debate. >> eamon, thank you. who wins, who loses. a managing partner of a firm that advises and invests in media companies. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> i think about the cable box
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every month when i open up my bill and i see that monthly fee that you have to pay. how much of a source of renew is this for the cable companies? is that the only way they're going to be losing out if this position stands? >> no, i don't view that as the big piece. there's about $20 billion or so of revenue that the industry makes from these charges. remember, most homes have a couple cable boxes. you're paying your -- >> or two, or four. >> i think the fight is really the different level. the chairman likes to wrap it up in the populist argument that the consumer needs a break, it's about the titans that control the ecosystem, the programmers, distributors and now the digital companies who want into that sandbox. >> how much could this mean for the digital companies? >> it's enormous. it's an enormous opportunity for them. google's not a humanitarian organization, it's an advertising company, it makes money. it wants to access a huge
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advertising environment that today is largely closed to people who are in distribution, and programming. so the opportunity is enormous. 72% of all television audience today still goes to the traditional legacy mechanisms to watch tv. creating a spigot into that, into the home is what this is really about. >> so let's say it gets fragmented, in which case your attention, our attention may be split between whatever legacy, cbs, abcs of the world and google? hulu, netflix? >> many types of devices that you want to see. you want to look at and access your content on. i think the question is, why do we have -- it's not just the cable guys that are under assault. it includes 20th century fox, abc, cbs, motion picture association of america, basically everybody who's in the existing closed sphere looks at this and says, this sort of tips it over for us. why would we want to do that. i think you have to ask the question, what's in it for me?
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i'm not sure what's in it for either the distributors or programmers to see this happen. there are things google could do to make it more appealing, or the fcc could do to make it more appealing. it's about breaking the sort of closed system. >> john, got to leave it there. thank you. >> thank you. >> does this change the way you look at the landscape? >> the landscape is changed. so it doesn't change the way i look at it. we've had this discussion before, like comcast now trades at 14 times earnings. disney got ratcheted all the way down to 14. i think the entire space is getting recalibrated. i thought the move in disney off the february 10th low on huge volume was very interesting. there's a little room to run. but i think the entire space is under the microscope right now. i think it's hard to play them long-term holds. >> yeah, i think technology is just moving too fast. i think that these ingrained -- these cable companies, with the boxes, and all these fees, i think technology is going to
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work around them. to me, there will be workouts. i think you probably want to stick with content. that's what they're delivering. to me, it's probably time warner. time warner had a great, great bounce last week, got back above 60. that's probably in the mid-50s again. >> you like that situation for google? >> i love any potential revenue stream for google. that is good. i actually am concerned for disney, because it seems like it's heading that way, so we see an unbundling. i can't help but think that for them, it has to come down. >> okay. still ahead, yahoo! ceo making surprising comments about mobile. may signal trouble for the stock. we'll take you behind the multi-million dollar vet that behind the market could rally 10% in the next month.
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welcome back to "fast money." marisa meyer taking stage at the mobile developer conference in san francisco. josh? >> reporter: melissa, there are big changes happening in the mobile industry. and that was a topic that marisa
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meyer touched on during her keynote. >> there's a paradox in the mobile industry today. despite the incredible scale, we continue to hear things, like the mobile revolution is over. market saturation is slowing mobile growth. the time on mobile devices slows. to some extent we are seeing evidence of this being true. >> reporter: now, meyer pointing out some slowing mobile device sales, but also pointing out people still spend a lot of time on those mobile devices, more than four hours per average on the day. so mayer said there is a set of tools to increase their audience, to engage more with their audience, to turn those apps into real viable businesses. sometimes the analytics examples, 260,000 developers use them. mayer has tried to build a real
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mobile business at yahoo!. that last reported quarter, mobile revenues did surge to nearly 300 million, or about 25% of the total. the problem for yahoo! though, is the fierce competition. e marketer pointing out last year yahoo! controlled less than 2% of the mobile ad market. compare that with the nearly 20% of facebook, or the more than 30% of alphabet. the question for developers today was how much time and resources do they commit to yahoo! especially when the future of yahoo! is still in question. is it an independent company or does it get sold to the highest bidder? if it is sold to the highest bidder, what happened to all the tools that melissa mayer was talking about today. >> all good questions. especially as the core business is in decline here. why are we talking about mobile? the biggest part of the business and it's melting away. >> i'm not sure it's melting away. it's been disappointing in the
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growth, but again, we talked about who we consider this a valuable entity to own. i think, again, you trade yahoo! 21 bucks, it will test the 50. we've seen the negative onslaught. and i think it's an overreaction. and alibaba is trading better. >> you might be wondering what happened to dan. or maybe you're not wondering that at all. >> we miss him deeply. >> dan? >> an interesting bet. the emerging markets, call volume was four times that of puts today. half that volume came in one trade. today when the etf was 3050, there was a buyer of 215,000 of the march 33 calls. 15 cents to open. about $3.5 million in premium. that breaks even in about a month. 9.5% from the trading level. it's a sizeable trade. in contract terms, and also in premium. but here's the thing also that
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it was only an option saying there's a 15% chance that that trade is going to be in the money in march. not a high probability of that if you're looking for a bounce in the eem over the next month. i would just say, lastly, that's probably somewhat of an existing long, looking to leverage off that position in the event there's some sort of massive global rally, or this rally continues. and lastly, here's the seven-year chart, the eem. when it broke 35 earlier, that was a big support level after a long consolidation. still in a big youdowntrend her. >> thanks so much, dan. tomorrow, of course, 5:30 p.m. here on cnbc. coming up next, final trade. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday.
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jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought.
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can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?
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final trade time. tim? >> tesoros oversold. >> i think walmart, if you see 65, it's a good opportunity to lighten up. if you're long. or trading short, liking at 5 50.70. >> anthem, i like it. good economy.
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>> gnx. thanks for watching. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain but coach and teach. so call me at 1-800-734-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. the s&p back slid,


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