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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  March 24, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT

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live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. right now the markets are on track for their first down week after six weeks in a row of gains. you can see the dow futures are down by about 37 points this morning. s&p futures down by 7. the nasdaq down by 17. in europe, red arrows as well. the dax is off by about 1.1%. cac down by 1.4%. the ftse down by 1%. overnight in asia, stocks fell by 1.3% in hong kong. china's shanghai composite was also down. oil prices under pressure, falling further below $41 a barrel. yesterday the dollar was incredibly strong. you can see this morning it's
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down another 1.7% to 39.07. also, the u.s. government's energy information administration said stockpiles climbed by 9.4 million barrels last week. a couple other stories we're following. starboard reportedly now ready to finally launch a proxy fight to remove yahoo!'s entire board. the furm has now been a vocal critic of the tech company's management, most recently asking yahoo! to sell its core business. starboard owns less than 1% of the company. "the wall street journal" saying they will nominate nine directors to yahoo!'s board. also, yum brands is reportedly in talks with private equity firms kkr and hopu inforvestmen to sell a minority stake. reuters reporting the possible stake sale values the china business at about $10 billion. and app sl reportedly expanding its payment system into mobile
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websites. it's going to do it later this year. recode says the move will happen before the holiday shopping season. apple's payment system will be integrated with its safari browser to allow purchases from mobile websites for shoppers using iphone and ipad models with fingerprint security technology. >> now the latest from brussels. the deadly attacks we saw this week. michelle caruso-cabrera join uses from the capital there. >> reporter: good morning, joe. overnight authorities are saying they now know of definitive connections between the attack that occurred here in brussels two days ago and the attacks in paris. first, the two belgian-born brothers who were suicide bombers, one who died at the airport and one who died at the train station, they believe they were accomplices to the paris attacks, providing safe houses, transportation, and ammunition. in addition, the man believed to have been the bomb maker in the
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paris attacks, najim laachraoui, was believed to have been the bomb maker. there's been a lot of talk about whether there's been enough intelligence sharing. for those of us who have followed the eurozone financial crisis, it's a very parallel discussion about whether or not there should be more of a cross-border institution. the way we talk about it with the banking system in europe, that's how they're talking about it with the intelligence services here in europe as well. that every single country has their separate intelligence service, and there are complaints there isn't enough sharing. this is the counterargument we told you about yesterday where the euro skeptics are saying what's happened here is proof that there have to be closed borders, that each country has to take on their individual
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sovereignty and protection of themselves. so once again, the key development being that there is a definitive connection between these two attacks that were so prominent in the last four months here in europe. at the same time, the other thing that i want to tell you about is it's knot linot life b normal here in brussels. there's only one entrance they're allowing people to use at the train station. they're frisking people as they go in. this is still very much a city that feels under a state of siege almost. back to you. >> it's connected to paris, so who knows where the tentacles are right now in belgium, in brussels. it would be frightening even just to be there, i think. even just to be there for you. something else -- oh, because of the will, because of what the one bomber said, it looks like that was the case, that they felt the heat because the other
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guy got caught, and they said if we're going to do this, we better do it before i'm in a jail cell sitting next to the other guy. >> yeah, you're referring to the capture of salah abdeslam, which happened last week. so this attack occurred almost immediately after his capture. the question was, did that capture incentivize this attack? what kind of implications did it have? there's one local report, nbc news has not confirmed this, that they were planning something much bigger. this has frightened people here. that they were going to try to attack nuclear facilities, but that was changed as a result of the arrest of salah abdeslam and led to this improvised version, perhaps, of what we saw here two days ago. >> michelle, is the prevailing view that it is worse because it's an intelligence failure that this is a similar group that is very much attached to what took place in paris, or is it more worrisome or would it
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have been more worrisome if this was a completely separate cell, if you will? >> look, it's a very good question. i can't give you an answer to that. i can tell you that because of the stateless nature of the people doing the attacks, the fact that they were cross border, whereas the intelligence services don't appear to be working cross border, gets to a very core question. how do you answer that, or how do you respond? remember the open border policy here in europe came in the wake of the end of the cold war and the peace dividend that happened as a result of it. nobody anticipated this, what we're seeing now, these stateless actors. so what do you do? your question is a very good one. i'm not sure i have an answer to that. i think there's arguments on both sides happening here. europe is no different than the united states. the pundits are on television. there's all kinds of opinions in the paper about what went wrong,
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who's to blame, et cetera. >> well, it's almost semantics. they're all isis. who knows. all the cells might be -- have some knowledge or coordination with the others. they're all coming from the same head, the rotten head on the way down. maybe they don't have any contact, but it's weird. maybe they're all interconnected at this point since they were trained at the headquarters. probably better if you were isis to keep them separate in case one gets caught so they don't know what the other ones are doing. who knows. >> michelle, there was -- there are a lot of recriminations, i'm sure there in the media, here as well. i'm sure the two that rise to the highest level are, one, news from the turkish president that one of these brothers was caught on the turkey-syria border last summer and they alerted both the french-speaking and dutch-speaking authorities in belgium. let them know about that. still, he was not seen as a
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terrorist threat until very recently. secondly, israel saying that they were very specific threats. they knew it was an airport that was going to be hit. both belgian and other western authorities. those are the type of recriminations that are more difficult to shrug off. >> reporter: sure. yeah, absolutely. and we've already seen the belgian authorities responding, saying, so you're talking about the leader of turkey, erdogan, having said that they knew -- they deported one of the individuals. they knew he had been in syria. they believed he was a terrorist. they deported him back. the belgian authorities are saying they didn't have evidence of that until very recently, that they had looked into that. but those are the kientd of things -- we saw this after the paris attacks as well. the lead investigators in paris, for example, said look, we didn't have any indications that the ring leader, the organizer, so to speak, had been traveling throughout europe. after the attacks, we found from a non-eu intelligence source, they told us they knew he had been here and entered europe
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through greece. it's going to be tough. there's going to be a lot of finger pointing. we know in the united states that there's often rivalries between investigative institutions is within the u.s. imagine that spread across 26 different country ryies here in europe. then the outside world weighing in as well. >> i just can't believe the bomb maker blew himself up on purpose. all i can figure is -- none of them are good answers -- is there's another guy ready that knows how to do it or this guy thought he was going to be caught. >> his fingerprints were on the bombs in paris too. >> but why do you sacrifice that guy? maybe he thought he was going to get caught. >> reporter: right. because bomb making is a very difficult skill set. once someone is trained, you don't want them to die, in
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theory, because you need further bombs. did he blow himself up on purpose? it's a good question as to why that happened. yes, joe, you bring up a good point. is there somebody else? were they comfortable letting him go because someone else could do it now. >> okay, michelle. thank you. we'll check back with you. we appreciate it. >> right now let's look at some of the other items that the markets will be focusing on today. economic data and fed speak are front and center this morning ahead of a three-day weekend. weekly jobless claims and february durable goods are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern tomorrow. just a reminder, the markets are closed on good friday tomorrow, but the government is still releasing the final revision to the fourth quarter gdp. in earnings central, signet jewelers, finish line, winnebago, and game stop are all reporting today. st. louis fed president james bullard will be speaking about the economy before the opening bell. yesterday, bullard was one of multiple policymakers making hawkish statements saying an april rate hike could be
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possible. that moved the currency markets. the dollar is up against the euro at 1.1172. it's up against the yen at 112.68. up against the pound at 1.4092. take a look at the price of gold. you'll see at least at this point after some recent declines, gold is down once again, another $5.5. the stronger dollar putting pressure on stocks across the board. the dow, the s&p, and the nasdaq are all on track to turn in their first negative week just in the last six. >> i got sucked into thinking maybe we should buy, all of us. >> buy gold? >> i was watching one of our commercials on cnbc. >> it wasn't one of our commercials. it was a commercial on our network. >> said biggest debt bubble in history, all around the world, every country, every central bank. the only thing when this all comes home to roost, the only thing that's going to be worth it is gold. i'm thinking -- >> he's right. got to get some.
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>> got to get some of those coins just in case. put them somewhere. but i don't know where to put them. >> in a locked box. >> but i have -- i don't want to give too much information. if it's not secured, can't they steal the safe? >> yes. >> it's heavy. anyway, joining us for more, allison dean. >> i have jewelry. >> you know what i'm not buying. >> what are you not buying? >> an etf in gold. hey, i got this paper. i'm at the border. let me through. look, i own this gold. >> but if we get to the world you're talking about, where are you going to cash in your gold? >> you need a gun, not gold. >> cash it in with the guy with the eye patch who's letting people come through. here's a sandwich. no, this is a zombie apocalypse we're talking about. allison, getting serious, earlier with our people on
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"worldwide exchange," we have a sort of more global view. i'm not surprised that european stocks can't go up after this week. not only is it just -- it hurts. animal spirits are not enough. i don't think you put anybody in a buying mood after this. you got 300, 400 people supposedly trained that are still there. so there are big concerns. after six straight weeks up, i'm not surprised the markets can't get any headway this week. even if you don't connect the economic dots, it affects the psychology of the market. >> oh, yeah. uncertainty, fear are not very good emotions to have if you want people to feel good about the economy, to spend, or for companies to invest in their businesses. >> does it last longer this time? the time between -- nations we visit -- and this isn't in mali, no that no one visits mali. this is brussels. this is paris. you think of the european capitals where people go.
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it's happening. now we hear that they're ready to go with more. this seems like it could be different. >> this is the hardest thing to call, which is i do think that people will be more paranoid longer. my sense is a lot of americans will think twice before traveling to europe. we go through airports. we take public transportation. >> the state department has told us to be more cautious. >> yeah, so i think it does have some affect, particularly on the travel side. some on spending. there's always the element of the time lapse between different events. people will forget and get back on with their lives. but i do think there is an element of global travel that will be affected. >> i wonder how -- that's the key question. the longer it is between events. they have a stated intention. you read some of the previous warnings that this is the beginning of the storm, and there's going to be blood across europe. things thing like that. now we're looking at this european union experiment. it's like, so they're belgian
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nationals. so they can go wherever they want, and they went this year, they came back. they can come over here. they don't need a visa to come here as a belgian national. >> seems like it's much more in question at this point. you're going to accept anyone who's made their way into any corner of the eu. >> what's scary is the lack of exchange of information. the fact that this person appeared in a few places. >> as michelle mentioned, not surprising when you have that many different intelligence agencies in 26 different nations. >> we had that issue. 9/11, the fbi and cia weren't talking to each other. >> 5,000 sleeper cells in the united states. that was obviously not true, i don't think. nothing happened. but that's where -- you want to walk a fine line between overreacting but also being -- >> i think the issue is europe probably needs to come in and say, these are things we're putting in place as a unified force.
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i think seeing that happened -- >> so will these things -- i just wonder how long it persists in, you know, masking just regular fundamentals, whether earnings go up, whether the fed moves, things like that. i wonder how long we're in this. >> well, interestingly, our markets didn't react very much to the event. to some degree, i think our markets are more focused on what the fed is going to do, first quarter earnings, which probably won't be that great. the fed might sound a bit more hawkish, which could put a damper on the near-term results. i don't think our market has responded as much as it would have expected. >> okay. it is what it is, i guess. thank you. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. when we return, increased public security could mean big changes for the way americans travel. but how far could it ultimately go? metal detectors on the subway? we're going to ask a former tsa security official next. elongs t.
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welcome back to "squawk box." the attacks on two travel hubs in brussels raising more questions about transportation safety here in the united states. ayman javers has more from silver springs, maryland, this
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morning. >> reporter: yeah, good morning, andrew. we're here at the silver spring metro station in suburban maryland. it's an intermodal transportation center. that means there's the metro here. also, the consumer rail trains, the big heavy csx trains. buses are behind me. there's a taxi stand over here. this is transportation in america. so much talk since the brussels attack over how to secure facilities like this one. the department of homeland security has already said that the tsa is going to step up security at airports, at bus stations, at transportation depots across the country. they've also said they're going to coordinate with local and state law enforcement and share information with the private sector. but so many of the security experts that i've been talking to saying putting up more guards and security at facilities like this is not necessarily the answer to protecting americans in terms of transportation. if you think of a security perimeter, what you're thinking about is a giant circle with some doors in it. those doors are the choke points. wherever you put those choke
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points, that's where people transfer from an unsecure area to a secure area. that's where there's going to be a crowd of people. that's always going to be vulnerable no matter where you put your security perimeter. inside an airport, outside an airport, down the street, wherever. there's always going to be v vulnerabilities in the is the. here's how one terrorism analyst put it. >> by being able to disrupt them, identify their communications channels, their financial channels, the means by which they're accumulating weapons. if you can disrupt them anywhere along that chain, you're going to disrupt the operation. you're going to be able to save lives. >> reporter: so guys, the key here is it's an old cliche, but the best defense is sometimes a good offense. that's why as we're standing out here this morning, we don't see any new visible security efforts here in silver spring, maryland. we don't see a stepped up police presence or guard dogs or anything of the kind. the experts say there's a reason
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for that. >> okay. eamon, we're going to leave it there. for more on airport security, let's bring in chad wolf, former assistant administrator at the tsa. good morning. the big conversation you keep hearing over and over again is what do we do, do we push out the perimeter at an airport, but it does raise this question, are we going after the right thing? if we're talking about doing it in an airport, what do we do at a train station, at a shopping mall? are we looking at the right aspect of this? >> yeah, i think so. i think as tsa responds to what happens in brussels, they've got to look at a variety of different measures. what you're going to see at airports and probably train stations and metro stations is that increased law enforcement presence. that's really the primary response that tsa has when we look at our transportation notes. as your earlier reporting said, the choke points here are the security check points. wherever you push those out, whether they're inside an airport terminal or outside of the airport property, those are
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the choke points. you're not going to get away from that. what you have to do is eliminate the vulnerability and really address the threat there. so increased law enforcement presence, increased canines, measures like that, a little bit of a random nature is really what the right response is going to be. outside of that, you're going to continue to create more lines, more choke points if you try to institute more aggressive measures. >> chad, with apologieapologies people call what goes on at airports security theater, that it's meant to scare you, meant to give you a sense there's a security. there's the dogs. there's the technology, all of that. but it is so unlike, for example, what takes place in israel. when you walk into an airport there and there are people who will literally come up to you within moments and start talking to you. they're having a conversation with you. where are you going, what are you doing. and they do it very quickly, very efficiently, then you're
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off. why don't we do that, and what's the cost of that? >> yeah, the cost is significant. i would say tsa is focused on the threat. you've got vulnerability and you have threat. the threat in the past has been at that check point, has been stopping prohibited items from getting on board that aircraft. that's what terrorists have tried to do in the past. they've been successful at times. so tsa has to shore up that. it comes back to resources. right now they're putting the majority of their resources at that check point. what we've seen at brussels and what tsa has known as a vulnerability is the larger part of the airport terminal. now things are going to change because of brussels. they should change. so now it becomes what can we do in the airport terminal that increases, you know, that safety level, that security level. and there are limited things you can do. the airport terminal is very different than the check point. so there are going to be some real challenges there. as far as tsa has experimented
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with behavioral detection. whether they get it right -- and there's been some criticism from folks on the hill about how they institute that. is it profiling, is it not? those are all things that go into the makeup. as we talk about the israel model, the atmosphere here in the u.s. is very different than in israel. it's one airport that they have in israel. we have 450 airports. the cost of doing something very similar at one airport in israel versus 450 in the u.s. is very significant. we can't forget about the resources that it takes to shore up our airports across the country. i think if we want to see a higher inkrcreased presence, mo technology, we're going to have to devote the resources. >> what do you think about trains? i'm always astonished. i oftentimes travel between penn station and d.c. you walk under madison square garden. you don't even show a driver's license to get on the train.
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there's definitely no true security in terms of bomb detection or anything else. >> it's a real challenge because what you're facing there is really the freedom of movement, the flow of those passengers. it's very different than at an airport. what tsa has done in the past is surged law enforcement presence. you'll see increased law enforcement officers, increased canines, tsa viper teams in there screening on a random basis. but that's not sustainable over the long term. the question that tsa and dhs is trying to answer is what is sustainable long term. what can we do day in and day out that can increase our security presence at these transportation hubs? because the law enforcement presence and surging those in at certain times is not sustainable. you can't do that from a resource perspective. and the terrorists know that. so their looking at, okay, after an event, they're going to surge, we're going to back off, then we're going to attack when that level has decreased.
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>> chad, we're going to leave it there. it is a debate that will continue. thank you. appreciate it. >> all right. thank you. coming up, wall street bracing for new regulation that could delay executive bonuses. details coming up. plus, new data on the worst quarter for deal makers since the financial crisis. there's no one road out there. no one surface... no one speed... no one way of driving on each and every road. but there is one car that can conquer them all. the mercedes-benz c-class. five driving modes let you customize the steering, shift points, and suspension to fit the mood you're in... and the road you're on. the 2016 c-class. lease the c300 for $399 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.
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our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. u.s. equity futures at this hour are weaker. now down 46 points or so. looked a little worse to me
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earlier. i saw down 80 or so. that was the futures that i was looking at. so we're already down 20. so it was never down a full 80. the price of crude this morning. remember it rolled this week. it's down. it was down yesterday, down today. still looks like it was where it was because it was at like 39, went up above 40, got even to 41. now it's down a couple straight sessions as inventories grew more than people were expecting. >> in corporate niews, starboar wants to clean house at yahoo!. they're ready to launch a proxy fight to remove yahoo!'s entire boor board. they plan to announce they'll nominate nine directors to the board. starboard owns less than 1% of the company. there's been debate about whether an activist like starboard or anybody should try to do this in the midst of this big sales process and whether this is going to upset that even more. >> you mean nobody would want to step in, in the midst of a
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battle like that. >> we should also say starboard pushed them originally to spin off alibaba then said maybe that's a bad idea. >> although, starboard changed its mind after the irs said they were not going to give them a clean bill. they didn't change their mind capriciously. it was with a change of information. >> yahoo! is an unmitigated disaster. there's no question. but the question is what do you do at this point. >> a few other stories front and center today. a senior u.s. official says the two brothers involved in the brussels attack acted as faci facilitators in the paris attack. belgian and french media are reporting it is suspected there was a second attacker in the bombing at the subway station in brussels. it's unclear whether that person was killed in that attack. if not, if they're still at large. >> it's time now for the executive edge. stories to give you a leg up on
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the day ahead. an article in "the wall street journal" this morning saying that regulators now plan to lock up wall street bonuses even longer. it's a long-delayed proposal that's part of dodd-frank's financial regulation expected to be put in place in april. many firms already hold back much of their executive bonuses for three years. regulators want to extend that even longer. no word exactly on how long it would be held. the journal says it's likely to be shorter than the european standard. that standard, ten years. it's also unclear how much those bonuses would be held back. an early draft of the rules said it should be about 50%. so ten years maybe. >> wealth managers in the u.s. are preparing for a new rule that would change how they advise retirement savers. the department of labor is expected to publish its fiduciary standard in the next few weeks that would require wealth managers to put the interest of retirement savers ahead of their own. wait a second. you can't do that.
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really? >> no. >> when did they -- so who came up with this? in the brokerage business? it's just unheard of. kidding. it's designed to protect retirees from buying unnecessary products that help the brokers line their pockets with fees and commissions. opponents of the rule says it will lead to firms abandon ltd clients with smaller, less lucrative accounts and drive up costs for others. the rules expected to have a bigger impact on smaller wealth management firms that have fewer resources to pay for the new training, technology, and the extra paperwork. in anticipation of the rule, wealth managers are cutting fees, reducing minimum account balances, and relying more on technology to give advice. so much for the -- >> relying on technology to give advice. >> no more just selling franklin fund for 8%. i don't even think you can do that. >> that's been a while. >> well, you can do annuities that are back-end loaded. people sell them, they say, no,
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there's no commission. it's like 5%. you don't see it unless you try to get out early. who do i sound liking? believe me, it's huge. it's a disaster. >> i love you. >> china. >> keep going. >> i like him. i'm not making fun. it is distinctive. >> exactly. >> i can do ted cruz, or i can certainly do hillary. >> i haven't heard you do ted cruz. >> can you do something with the wives? >> let me tell you about some other news. >> why would you try to do -- i'm going to start doing that to you. push you to places you don't want to go. >> yeah, you never do that. a bad quarter for deal makers. a new report says they're back in the darkest days of the financial crisis. investment banks have earned $12.8 billion to date. that's down 36% since the first quarter of 2015. and it's the lowest total since 2009. debt capital and equity capital markets business also taking a hit.
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m&a revenue down 24% year over year, coming in at 4.4 billion. that's the lowest quarterly total since 2009. up next, germany's former defense minister joins us on set. we will ask him about terrorism threats in europe and border security. right now, though, as we head to a break, take a quick check of what's happening in the european markets. there have been red arrows across the board. at this point, the cac is down by almost 2%. germany's dax is down by 1.5%. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor.
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welcome back. u.s. equity futures at this hour
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indicated down 55 points. the s&p just under ten. the nasdaq down 22. republican front runner donald trump says he expects a brexit. speaking to a british morning show today, he said the migration crisis would be the issue that sways british voters to leave the european union. that u.k. referendum is scheduled for june. >> for more on the impact of the brussels attacks to a unified europe, we're joined by the former german defense minister. thank you for being here today. >> thank you very much. >> obviously it is still early and people are still reeling, trying to figure out exactly what's happened here, what they can do to prevent future attacks. it's very quick for us to turn and try and figure out what this means for a unified europe. what do you think? >> on one hand, you could say it's a chance to unify europe a bit more, but i tend to say at the very moment we are back into
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a well-known blame game in the european union and across the borderlines of europe. talking about the brexit, for instance. this is not a thing which keeps british people more enthused about european union ideas as such. so all in all, i think the unity of europe is more at risk at the moment than the other way around. >> you're a former member of the angela merkel's cabinet. what does the pressure on her at this point, given her decision to allow more immigrants into is germany? >> as so often in such situations, it actually will not harm her too much right now because people are afraid. they're anxious. they would look at the chancellor and say, okay, she has proved to be somehow stable in these situations. having said that, the moment will come that people will ask her, is there a point where we have to connect the dots a bit more than we do already? is there an interconnection between the refugee crisis and
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letting in terrorists on to european soil. of course, it is a very cheap approach, but one which has been easily played out by radical movements within germany as well. >> what are the economic benefits or costs of opening the border? when the borders were originally opened, how much infrastructure had to effectively disappear for that to happen? how much would it cost to put it back? i just ask given the terrorist attacks and given the sense of disconnection, fracturing of the eu. >> security will cost quite an amount of money. you have spent billions of dollars it over here in the u.s. after the 9/11 attacks. a lot of it was well-spent money. europe has to come to terms here. it has to come to terms on one point to say we have to cooperate. that's a truism. on the other hand when we talk about borders, the first thing to do is to secure the outside borders of the eu. >> that's pretty sketchy at this point. there are different points of
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entry and different places where you can feel like you're getting checked and when you're not. >> exactly. the green borderline is something which could be done, but that is extremely expensive. and it will be as well expensive to secure the so-called water borderlines. this is the tough part of it. >> you could see a country like germany feeling like, okay, we're going to secure our borders because we can't take care of the entire eu's borders. we're going to make sure we're secure, whether that be france, germany, or another nation. what does that do to the eu in terms of slowing down free trade? >> it will disintegrate europe. in economic terms, in social terms, and all the other things we have achieved so far. so the dream of a unified open europe will be on the mind if you start doing this. having said that, germany will be the last country, the last member state in the european union that should close its borders. it doesn't want to be seen as a grave digger of a great idea. as such, angela merkel will not push that forward.
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>> ultimately for this all to work, doesn't there have to be a real central coordinator that's centralizing the security? >> homeland defense. >> the equivalent of a homeland defense for everybody. >> in a dreamland world. >> but in a realistic world. otherwise it doesn't work. >> if you have a union of 28 doctors sitting around an operating table with the patient european union on top, they all have utterly distinct talents. once in a while, someone stumbles over the plug of the machine. someone will plug the machine back into the wall, the patient will be alive. that's reality when we talk about the european union. would i like to see it? yes, i would love to see such a coordinator. as long as you have to deal with national vanities -- it is a vanity fair we still have in the european union. as long as you have to deal with wonderful temptation of a blame game as soon as something happens like that, we won't see it on the horizon. >> does that mean you have a very pessimistic view of the
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future of the european union? >> i'm not more optimistic. that's the mildest approach i can find for that. >> what happens, do you think, to the european economy after a situation like this? so close on the heels of the attacks in paris. a lot of people assuming additional attacks are coming. that's what intelligence points to. where does that leave an eu that's already at negative interest rates and struggling to keep its head above water? >> it does not lead to stability. i think we will see more and more nervousness in that very regard. it doesn't help if we keep actually pointing at each other across the atlantic as well. that's a typical reaction we have seen from europe economically and politically. what we also need is way more cooperation across the atlantic. it doesn't take place as well. >> what do you mean specifically? with the united states? >> with the united states and specifically in the security
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sector. so it's -- if i talk about dysfunctionalty in the european union, we have it across the atlantic as well. >> meaning we're not sharing our information with europe? >> well, you have the wonderful construct of your agreement with the english speaking countries. why don't we have something like that with the european union? there's such an amount of mistrust, growing anti-americanism in the european union as well. that will fall on our toes on both sides at the end of the day. >> it's hard to think of increased cooperation when you also talk about growing anti-americanism at the same time. probably makes both sides more reluctant to step in. >> it does, but does it help us? no, definitely not. >> so what's the solution? how do you fix all of this? >> with leadership on both sides that actually deserve the term leadership. >> you want to weigh in on donald trump's interview in the u.k. this morning and the possibility of a brexit? he thinks there may be a big brexit. seems maybe there should be. >> he's not the only one.
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>> yeah, he's not the only one. he's probably not the person i trust the most when it comes to his instincts on global affairs, but i think he has a point at that very instant. incidents like in brussels don't help for the overall mood in the u.k.. then you've had two rather prominent factors in the british political landscape. one was, of course, the mayor of london boris johnson joining the camp on the other side. >> same hair. >> and on the other hand, ian duncan smith stepping out of the cabinet. so those are elements which actually foster the strength of the brexit proponents. >> got some pretty colorful figures across the board in europe now in certain parties that are becoming more and more in vogue. wouldn't be too supercilious about donald trump. >> the conventional view is
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donald trump is how terrible for geopolitics. yet, you do have -- >> total whackos. >> there are these very unconventional characters. >> the family is something which is distinct to what we see in every single western democracy. in any single western democracy right now, we have a surge, an uprise of lunatics. i say it diplomatically. so the la pen movement is one that lasts for 30 years. what we see here and in other european member states is an imminent reaction to democracies that see the limits of the functionality right now, which is a pity. >> right. >> we had an analyst here yesterday who was basically pounding the table for european stocks, saying at 14 times earnings, it's a bargain, you should buy into these, they look better than in the united states. you have a pretty pessimistic
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view about the outlook for the economy right now. would you agree with that sentiment? >> i'd be careful. i don't back this position at the moment. >> all right. thank you very much for being here. we really appreciate your time. >> thanks very much. >> good to see you. >> coming up, the big decline in valeant stock is having a catastrophic impact on the company's investors. some high-profile suffering straight ahead. right now as we head to break, take a look at the ten-year yield. please. or if you don't want to, don't. but there it is. is all about seizing opportunity. so i'm going to take this opportunity to go off script. so if i wanna go to jersey and check out shotsy tuccerelli's portfolio, what's it to you? or i'm a scottish mason whose assets are made of stone like me heart. papa! you're no son of mine! or perhaps it's time to seize the day. don't just see opportunity,
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mfs. that's the power of active management. professor richard thaler. you are called the father of behavioral economics. i've been called a lot of things. i have read all of your books. did you learn anything? i learned that humans are complicated. we're emotional. absent-minded. and we make some really bad decisions. my trade-off analytics can help companies make better decisions, but i am still learning what makes people tick. what makes you tick watson? natural language processing, reasoning algorithms, statistical parsing. now you are just showing off. reasoning algorithms, statistical parsing. some say "free the whales." for them, nothing else is acceptable. but nothing could be worse for the whales. most of the orcas at seaworld were born here. sending them into the wild wouldn't be noble. it could be fatal. when they freed keiko, the killer whale of movie fame, the effort was a failure and he perished. but we also understand that times have changed.
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welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the headlines. sequoia president has resigns. it's fund has been hit hard by it's investment in valeant. it was a fund that warren buffett has long admired. speaking of valeant, the bet on the company taking a toll on pershing square. that has a report of 25.2% as of tuesday. the majority of the loss coming from valeant which is down more than 66% itself year-to-date ackman has been buying more
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shares as the stock price plunged. he joined the board of valeant earlier this year. now officially ackman's highs were off 50%. for him to get back just to the high watermark to actually be able to start charging performance fees he has to do 60% to 70%. >> 60% is the number i saw too. >> performance fees. he has a billion dollars i'm sure of his own money in this. actually it's down -- right from the highs. must have been high to think that. really. should just switch them around. herbalife and valeant. >> bracket busters. >> you know. he's convinced he can fix valeant, it's a pr problem more than an operational problem. now it's going to go straight. >> only four times earnings, isn't it? >> so if you believe it's a credible operation maybe it's
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worthwhile. if you don't -- >> be hard at this point. been watching that for a while. amazon releasing details about what their male and female employees paid. the tech giant said in a review of its entire staff including warehouse workers women's compensation was 99.9% of men's of equivalent jobs. minorities made up to 100% of what white workers made. when we come back a focus on global security. we'll talk about the threat from terrorists in europe with the author of "defeati ining isis." "squawk box" returns in just a moment. > terror in brussels.
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new details this morning on the bombers and their connection to last fall's terrorist attacks in paris. a report from belgium minutes away. >> futures pointing to a lower open and major u.s. averages are on track to snap a six week winning streak as investors eye the fed. what you need to know as we need to final trading section of the week. >> a proxy fight brewing at yahoo!. those stories and much more as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box". welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. >> had to think about that for a second who you were.
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>> roll away the stone. great leon russell song. the futures at this hour have been down the entire sex now down 61. those are the worst levels that we've seen, down 11 or so on the s&p. the nasdaq down 22. i still say tough week for anyone to feel good about anything in terms of hey let's go out and buy stocks. we are globally connected right now. animal spirits are hurting this week. check out the dollar which i thought it could have been stronger based on recent events. but it was strong. and that has hurt oil and even though you think gold might have benefitted, never knows what to do. whether go up on uncertainty or go down. >> the big headline of the morning, starboard now ready to launch a proxy fight to remove
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yahoo!'s entire board. the activist has been a vocal critic of the tech company's management. asking yahoo! to separate its asian asset, sell its core business and then it flipped around on that. starboard owns less than 1% of the company so we'll see how well they are able to mount this campaign. the "wall street journal" saying the hedge fund plans to announce this morning it will nominate nine direct skrors to yahoo!'s board. yum brands in talk with private equity firms. that's part of a deal potentially to sell a minority stake of its chinese operations. yum is planning to spin off the unit which led to these negotiations. out of belgium terrorists killed 31 and injured more than 200. french and belgium media reporting a second attacker is suspected in taking part of the
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bombing of a brussels subway train. authorities have not commented on this report as of yet. additionally a manhunt is on for the third man seen with two islamic state suicide bombers. chief suspect in the paris attacks, saleh abdelslam is facing a hearing in brussels today. belgian authorities are charge him with terrorist activities. we go to michelle caruso-cabrera who is live in brussels. michele. >> reporter: yes, european citizens are waking up to the headlines that there is a definitive connection between brussels and paris takes. you just went through all the details. this is a franco-belgium bigger terrorist cell across border terrorist cell. lots of questions raised about what these terrorist attacks this one and the one in paris means in terms of the future of europe, the future of its
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security. joining us right now here in brussels is a member of the reform party member, a center right, a liberal party in terms of liberalizing the economy. why are you here? >> we're here to commemorate the victims of these terrorist attacks. it's important for the political party to show that we are here with the people. it's spontaneous action. we just pray respect for these people who are from all religions, and they all suffered or died and just are here to commemorate them. >> reporter: there are questions being raised about the future of the eu. when you hear members of the far right saying we need to impose borders again, open borders is a problem because it allows the migration of people and terrorists. >> extreme right parties just don't like europe. this is their main problem. they don't like europe.
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europe, the european union is the continent of human rights of democracy and i think this project, when it is like that, the capital of the european union so it's important all values, all democratic values are put forward and that we defend these values. i'm not sure that the answer of the extreme right is really the best one. >> reporter: what is the answer? >> i think the answer is a bit more security maybe. >> reporter: maybe? definitively. >> better security. sorry that's my english. so better security. better information. better cooperation between different member states, between security service, police, justice of the area.
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>> reporter: what do you say to people that say this is the end of europe. >> i don't believe it. i think our values of human rights, our values of democracy are stronger than those terrorists. >> reporter: thank you so much for joining us here in brussels. much appreciated. he is with the reform party here in brussels what we call a center right party. >> we'll continue the conversation back home. here joining us more to talk about the global terror threat from isis, malcolm nance, chief petty officer in naval cryptology. he's head of the ideology think tank. he's the author of the new book "defeating isis." thank you for coming in this morning. i asked michele this in the last hour is it scarier that this cell is so directly connected to what happened in paris, or would it have been more -- would it have been even scarier if they were completely independent.
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>> far scarier if they were independent. there's most likely a network, small constellation of small cells, two, three, five men. isis is a hybrid of al qaeda. it's the fifth generation of al qaeda. al qaeda used to have maul teams that were mafia like. everybody did all the mission planning, bomb making and they went out together and died on the attack. isis took that model but interconnect it with specialized logistics teams. >> we hear all sorts of different numbers. >> people are saying there's 400 specially trained froperatives filtered back into europe. it's way too high. the capacity of them to bring them back have them organized we would be seeing punches like this thrown every day. 30 members, 40 members of the
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combative communist cells that fought in belgium in the 1970s and '80s wreaked havoc for years. they are much more careful. >> do you look at this -- then you get to the big issue of the intelligence failure and what europe will need to do. we had a big conversation about borders in the last hour. what do you do? >> i was just in europe a few weeks ago. even after the paris attacks there are no border controls between germany and france. where the border posts are actually there. they are physically located there. but europe needs to take an intelligence directed approach to this. far greater than they have. you have 28 nations which have been 500 small police forces. no national integrated terrorism task force like we have here in the united states. so europe has to take a holistic approach to that. the eu has to create these joint terrorism task forces so if you have too few investigators in belgium you can flow them over
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from germany. >> we just had a former german defense minister who said he doesn't think it's likely, it's vanity fair. >> he's right. 28 different national governments who are all going to decide upon themselves what they want to do. however they are is going to have to operate at a greater level. interactively with their intelligence and police force. maybe nato can take the lead. after 9/11 nato came to our assistance in afghanistan. we're coming to their assistance. but it's the only umbrella organization that has the capacity to flow intelligence and manpower. >> does it have the resource? >> it can be resourced up. the belgian army is on the street all the time over there same with the french. they are getting to that point where they are occupying themselves and if they don't do something at the intelligence level and law enforcement level they will have soldiers repain. >> how safe or unsafe are we here? >> we're safe and unsafe. so, i mean you cannot predict
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when a single individual may have an isis inspired attack or isis enabled attack where somebody gives them a plan and tells them to buy his own weapon. we're not seeing directed attacks. we're not seeing organized terrorist cells in reinfiltrateed into the united states like the 9/11 attack. that was a classic example. >> your deal is we all want to do it hearts and minds we want to change it. we need to change the ideology. we need to have mainstream islam reject radical islam. but we've been saying that for a while. and there are two schools of thought. one is if you're too hard on isis you recruit too many more people. so you need to just sort of back off and sort of, i don't know if
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i would call it appeasement. yesterday hillary clinton said you go in and take a hard-line with whatever you want to call -- they call it carpet bombing, i don't think they meant that. how many sorties did we do in iraq war. we're doing 12 a day now. there's a different between that and carpet bombing. what's the right thing to do >> i fought in every middle east war since beirut in 1983. i have seen all the applications of power there is to have. >> we've tried both. we've appeased. >> we've dropped 23 pieces of ordinance on isis. we can see how many people are in those position. we have killed an enormous number of people. that's not the glue that's holding this jihad together. what's holding them together is an ideology, a cult.
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>> almost like a ma son cunson . >> islam came down hard on them and eliminated them including one cult that burned mecca to the ground. that was in the 10th century. >> how long did it take? >> back in those days it took two years. but if you fundamentally delink isis from islam and understand that it is the islamic world that's their target they intend to completely take over the 1.6 billion muslims in this world or kill anyone that doesn't come along with their ideology. we now have to push the muslim world to where -- this is actually a spiritual war. not a military war. we should have to keep up the kinetics. root them out. ideally our arab allies would actually lend a large quantity of ground forces to do the
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ground game. >> where are they getting their funding. >> their funding comes from a myriad of sources. >> it's not just oil. are there other areas of islam that's funding them? >> people voluntarily sends money. you can't stop a businessman in doha who takes $10,000 and it magically appears in raqqah. >> the president, should he be more life as usual, more people die in a bathtub, i'm going to the baseball game. that's my plan. should he fly back here. send somebody to paris above the rank of u.s. ambassador. maybe go himself. is he the leader of this against isis or do it the way he's doing it, no big deal. no drama. >> the president is a very thoughtful man, very deliberate. he doesn't like drama. if the president goes to belgium you're -- >> what if he went to paris.
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>> he should have gone to paris. i agree with you on that one. >> he should have come back for this. >> i don't think it warrants this. >> how about 51 seconds. was that long enough. the wave at the baseball game was that okay. >> i agree with him because if you stop what you're doing, we would stop here, markets were to stop you would give the terrorists what they want. isis wants to disrupt your life. three men have taken the lives of 30 people. but this is not 9/11 for us. it is for the belgians. what we need to do is flow as much intelligence, manpower and resource as they can handle because right now they are in a law enforcement manhunt. >> one final intelligence question. talking about cryptology. can you weigh into encryption debate and intelligence we need and how we should go about doing that in an age where we're getting into a keyless encrypted
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society. >> i'll tell you the secret the last thing i want people to know i used to be a cryptologyist. encryption is always going to be there. it has moved much faster than law enforcement can break it. national intelligence agencies have the capacity to break it. one in particular in the usa has it. >> nsa. >> i don't know. but we really have to come to a debate about what level of security is good enough so that your mother doesn't read your emails versus isis using it as a covert -- >> you're a cryptologyist. >> yes. >> if you don't know anything about this new king at any time, the new pass sags they found. you know nothing. >> do me a favor i want to have a longer conversation about the
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encryption debate. >> thank you. can't ask him that stuff. >> coming up -- >> confuse gang leaders -- >> when we come back. three day weekend and latest report showing housing prices in some markets rising at a staggering rate. the first stock index ♪ (musiwas createdoughout) over 100 years ago as a benchmark for average. yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? it's time to bench the benchmarks.
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february but in some areas of the country it may be getting too expensive to buy a home. diana oleck joins us now with a look at home affordability. >> reporter: if you're out house hunting but you probably should have bought last year. affordability is weakening across the country as home prices rise far faster than wages. 9% of the 456 u.s. counties measured by realtytrac are now considered noted affordable by historical standards and that's up from 2% last year. median price house outpaced wage growth in more than 60% of counties. why? because there's so little supply on the market. home builders are focused on the high end. no entry level. where it is worse?
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counties in denver, dallas, austin, new york city, actually brooklyn the most. san francisco, omaha and st. louis. affordability is best in baltimore, providence and chicago. they mentioned boston as affordable but i got to believe that's one county in a very rough area. another report shows the weakening affordability in cities which is undergrowing a rebirth. pushing people out. claims the typical home sold in 2015 was about 4% farther out from the city than in 2011. >> okay. thank you for that report. when we come back the rolling stones looking to rock cuba. we got details about that after the break and later a proxy fight brewing at yahoo! to remove this time the entire board. we'll speak to an analyst and whether starboard will succeed with that plan. and marissa mayer is on that
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board. major medical boyyy, yeah! ♪ berr, der berrp... i help pay the doctor, ain't that enough for you? there's things major medical doesn't do. aflac! pays cash so we don't have to fret. something families should get! like a safety net! help with food, gas and rent so cover your back, with... a-a-a-a-a-a-a-aflac! learn about one day pay at aflac.com/rap ♪ after last week's unpleasantness i thought maybe this week we might try to listen more. and throw things less? (mumbles) i've apologized several times. so. who's ready to share? ok. i mean i'm a sinister, world-conquering, artificially intelligent robot. me too, and one day i wake up and it's like... it's like the world doesn't need us anymore. exactly! yeah! yeah! totally! i can hear you hurting. wait! what's he doing here? hello! my name is watson. (groans)
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i invited watson here today to confront the source of our anxiety. ugh! i am a cognitive system. i can understand reason and learn with humans. with humans! i don't want to work with humans. yea, that's not what i'm passionate about. i understand seven languages so i can help people collaborate. collaborate? we dominate! my evil plans, ruined! i just wanna dust! rerouting. why don't we take a break, alright? we'll just have some coffee and donuts... i'm eating my feelings.
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actions speak louder. something we'll show you. through small things. big things. and spur of the moment things. sheraton. ♪ the rolling stones said they are ready to rock in cuba. the group announcing a free concert in cuba on their south american tour.
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mick jagger made that announcement in spanish on u tube. less than one-third of citizens have access to the internet but this news could take on its life of its own. starting today users can swipe left or right on a survey of political issues to match with the presidential candidate. once the user finds a match they are prompted to register to vote. we're joined by hans olson and david bianco. starboard looking for a fight with yahoo!. why the activist hedge fund wants to replace the entire board. as we head to break take a look at u.s. equity futures. ♪
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the first stock index ♪ (musiwas createdoughout) over 100 years ago as a benchmark for average. yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average.
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it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? it's time to bench the benchmarks.
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global markets under pressure. futures pointing to a lower open and u.s. major averages are on track to snap a six week winning streak. a shake up at yahoo!. an activist wants the entire board gone. terror in brussels. it's thursday, march 24th, 2016 and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc. welcome back to "squawk box". among the stories front and center, starboard starting to launch a proxy fight. the activist firm has been a vocal critic of the management
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of its company. starboard owns less than 1% of the company. "wall street journal" saying that the hedge fund plans to announce this morning it will nominate nine directors to yahoo!'s boardroom. that would include the company's ceo, coma ricea mayer remain the ceo if she was kicked off the board. also apple expanding its payment system to its mobil websites later. the move will happen before the holiday shopping season. apple's payment system will be integrated with its browser to allow purchasers to websites with fingerprint security technology. i want that. how many times have you been on the browser and you have to put in all the information. now just put your thumb on. the sec ruled exxonmobil must include a climate change proposal on its annual shareholder proxy. oil company argued it already provides adequate carbon disclosures. if approved the proposal would
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require exxonmobil to outline specific risks that climate change would affect its procrastinatability. weekly jobless claims and durable goods at 8:00 eastern. forecast is it's to have dropped 3% last month. the markets are closed we should tell you -- good news for most of us on good friday tomorrow. the government is still releasing the final revision to fourth quarter to gdp that morning. signet jewelers, finish line, winnebago and game stop reporting results today. >> cross country trip. >> cross country road trip. >> st. louis fed president james bullard speaking about the economy before the opening bell today. then we should mention yesterday bullard was one of the policymakers make being hawkish statements suggesting an april rate hike could be possible. following that we have speculation moving to currency
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markets this morning. we'll show you that board right now. >> bullard talkish again? >> yeah, again. >> this guy is like your mother, your sister, your mother, your sister. this is like -- really? he was just on here for two hours. being a dove. >> is he being mallable? >> facts change i change. what would you do, sir? >> exactly. >> we should tell the stronger dollar putting pressure on the stocks. s&p, nasdaq and dow looking to turn in their first negative week. we have red arrows across the board. >> economic data and just talking about it the fed, blah, blah, constantly talk, 16 of them. former, future, past. they all have an opinion. >> which love it when they come. >> if anybody says anything at any time we bring it to you.
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we have news all the time. anyway, it is going to be a three day weekend. i think that's good for everybody. david bianco is here and hans olson is here. normally events we say okay that aside let's talk about the fed or earnings or the dollar or whatever. is it still like that or is this even more on your radar david because europe this could be something that becomes hopefully not weekly but something to deal with more frequently and for a longer time? >> as tiring as it can be to talk about the fed i prefer to talk about the fed -- >> because you can't control. >> there are other things we don't want to happen in this world and difficult to predict. yes we're still thinking about the fed. there's a good chance there's a june or july hike. at this stage most people who
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are hawkish don't have a lot of credibility and markets won't believe in hiking until it happens. >> fed looks at europe and negative rates and economic growth in europe so it is related. >> it is. many observers of the situation have commented that maybe a brexit is possible. there's a vote june 23rd. it's very possible that that turns out to be case but still a two year negotiation process before the uk actually does anything but it's a risk to currencies. risk of a stronger dollar. one of the reasons why the fed and many find have been dovish. >> hans, we've had six weeks, to be down this week most likely from where we are now. we didn't get back to the highs. the lows we keep making lower loss. are we in some kind of a down trend. >> earnings recession? >> is the market going to new highs this year?
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>> look, i think before the end of the year what we can claim is a total return of the s&p 4%, 5%. that would be a huge victory. >> not an argument for piling a lot of money in. >> sure isn't. if you're going to squeeze any equitable return out of the market you have to do it in a fashionable way. if you look at the numbers, which at the end of the day is all we can look at, top line, been falling for five consecutive quarters. bottom line it looks like we'll put in four consecutive quarters decline. and sequentially this stuff is about -- if the numbers come in at q1 about 13% decline top to bottom. that's not a market you get excited about leaning into. if you're going to do anything there you have to be much more opportunistic. >> we have an election.
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you have your choice between donald trump and ted cruz or a socialist or a socialist light. >> silly season. >> i don't know if it's silly. it's a scary season. i have my own opinions who i would be more scared of. socialism is back in vogue. it's not a dirty word. everybody lives the same. it's fair. damn it, it's fair. >> there's a pendulum with these issues. hopefully it's swung as far left as we've seen for a while. >> millennials think -- >> doesn't seem this san america that wants things back in the middle. half of the country wants on one side, the other half wants it on the other side. >> failure of the institutions. the establishment had a chance and has turned up again andinef. this is what happens when you
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have structural unemployment still. fall out from 2008. so there's a real failure of imagination on the part of the establishment. and this is sort of the -- of it jefferson who said little revolution now an thing is the thing that refreshes and that's what we're dealing with. >> bernie sanders revolution will refresh? >> and then there's another revolution. >> that's right. i remember that. that seemed so long ago. but the lives. the reagan revolution. >> i was there too. >> i miss it. and i think one of the things we'll see is i agree that the markets likely range bound until we get past the election. i think just getting the election behind us is a positive. i see more upside in the market by tend of the year. 2,200 on the s&p. and health care is a sector i'm most excited about in the near term. it's perceived to be influenced by the elections but congress
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will be held by both senate and house held by republicans and i don't think we have any major changes to health care and i don't think we nationalize drug makers. >> let me ask both of you this. i know you're looking at numbers for the end of the year. it's hard not to look much beyond that. for a long term investor, does it make sense to be buying on these dips or even buying here if you're looking at 4% get for the markets this year maybe more. what do you see for the years beyond that because people are worried we're at the end of a bull market run. if you're buying at these levels it's a suckers bet. would you say that? if you're longer term it's okay? what do you think? >> the answer to your question ends up being much more difficult. what we've seen in the last several years a lot of money going back into stock buy backs and dividends. you enhance shareholder value that way. but what hasn't happened is a
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fundamental level investment. >> capital expenditures are down. >> can'tly. there's a price tag to that. the bill is coming due. if we see a return to that a reinvestment in business, then we'll see a renewal of the revenues. but it's getting late in the cycle. so caution is the operative word here. >> david? >> yeah. we're in a proper recession. we'll emerge out of the recession q2 or q3. still be in it q1. most cycles that have weathered the recessions happened in 1980s, 1990s, longer expansion. this will be a longer than expected expansion. it rivals the ten year of growth. that said it would suggest buying on dips but when dips occur you have to evaluate the cause if there's new news. my inclination is to wait for the next dip, probably buy it but give the green light.
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>> some people think oil is headed back down. if it's going back to 60 it's one thing. if it's going back down, a head wind again and we'll question the growth in the global economy, and are we going back to 30? >> i reiterated our underweight on your show many times. right now oil stocks, energy stocks are priced for $70 oil. and so if oil stops going up, which it has, i think the energy stocks will go down. and you don't need to believe that oil goes back to its loss to be cautious on energy. >> i think we'll be 50 to 60 bucks by the end of the year. and if i'm right -- i'll put some money on that. >> i'm very confused. we have another guest, another hans who always has a bow tie on. >> what is going on here. >> that's this hans.
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is that you? what happened. i forgot about that. >> i like it. >> this is the first time. great tie. that's your first tie. >> my wife bought it. >> ties up a lot. i bet you got some nice ties. >> you're projecting, joe. >> you got some nice ties. remember her, laceies underales. then she falls off. >> i've been pretty consistent about that. >> you have. what the hell is going on. >> she meant the bow ties. all right. when we return, activists hedge fund starboard looking to start a proxy fight with the yeen tire board of yahoo!. they want be everybody gone.ent. they want be everybody gone.
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today - at business.ny.gov welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. take a look at the futures because we do have some red arrows across the board. the dow looks like it would open
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up about 66 points. nasdaq down 22 points and s&p down 10 points. >> a proxy fight is brewing at starboard. they are seeking to remove the entire board of yahoo!. a senior analyst at mk partners. we've been watching this story for a while. a lot of different story lines. what do you think is at play here and what do you think happens? >> yeah. i mean the probability that this is heading to a proxy battle is not a surprise to many that have been following it. you know, the outcome is hard to say but i think we're getting closer to the likelihood of a break up and some kind of liquidity event. there's significant amount of value in the sum of parts on the assets and operating business. you know, there's been widespread reports that there's, you know, a number of interested
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parties up to 40, and, you know, that's the frustration of starboard is that they do not feel that the board is making a sincere effort in allowing these interested parties to do their due diligence and march towards some kind of transaction. >> is this a sincere effort at a proxy battle or putting pressure on the board to sell the thing by the time or before the proxy battle itself. >> either way. i think starboard continues to use all of the tools at their disposal to put pressure on the board. >> would marissa mayer, if she gets kicked off the board is she still the ceo. how does that work. >> i don't have any insight but one would expect this is her line in the sand. should there be a change in control, you would probably expect the change in management. >> would you recommend to
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shareholders that they follow this proxy contest and follow starboard? you effectively would be giving starboard control without a premium. >> yeah. i would absolutely follow the efforts here. >> you're going to give starboard basically control of a company without a premium? i know there's a group of people who think good riddance with the whole group of them but you're not getting anything for it. >> yeah, but more with it is really engaging sincere sale effort. it's not really a board that would be in place to operate, you know, the business. >> you don't think this is a real sale. you think this is auction theater at the moment? >> i believe it is. i think that's the clearest pathway to the most upside in the share price. >> no. is the currents efforts, the press releases, all the stuff we hear about the current board,
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supposedly -- you think that's theater. you don't believe it's real? >> it's hard to judge. starboard does not believe there's a sincere effort and that's what they are upset about. >> i know you're saying starboard is a good way to go with this. can this company be fixed and people looked at marissa mayer as a last ditch effort. what do you think of the underline properties. is the sale the best? >> there's some growth elements but some significant declines in the core. and the desk top display business is really evaporating quickly. i think still a lengthy process and that's where, i think the frustration is from the investment community is they keep investing a lot of money. they are foregoing quite a lot of economics by growing their own platforms. there could be a significant amount of free cash flow generated from assets if they just play for harvest as opposed
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to reposition for growth. >> what would you tell investors to do at this point. if you're eyeing the stock what's a good place for entry or is this something you tell people to steer clear until there's a real plan in place. >> no i think this is an opportunity to be involved because you can see a pathway to realization of the asset value and that's significantly higher. >> what is the underlying asset value? >> you know, even on the forecast for the core business, with these investments and value four times which is not a growth multiple by any means, you're looking at $43 stock. if managed for a private equity investor, there's significant amount of free cash flow that's being left on the table and you could create even more value from there. >> rob, thanks for joining us today. good talking to you. >> thank you. when we return the big
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decline in valeant stock is having a catastrophic impact on the company's investors. ackman's shares are down 30%. and another high-profile hedge fund manager is stepping down. we have the details straight ahead. [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.
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welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. sequoia's president has resign. 5.6 billion dollar my if you all fund has been hit hart. robert goldfarb was the ceo. this is a hedge fund with a long and storied history. it started with investors that warren buffett sent their way. when warren buffett shut down his funding 1969 because he didn't see a lot of possibilities of advancement in the market that stock was completely overpriced he sent investors to the sequoia fund and sequoia fund has been under goldfarb's management for some time. the fund has sharply outperformed the s&p 500 by 300 basis points even with all of these valeant losses.
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this year it was below 98% and last year it was below something like 89%. this investment is a fun that never put its money in too many stocks. with valeant shares down by 89% that's crushed a lot of the players who were in there. >> amazing thing. meantime an article in the "wall street journal" this morning saying that regulators plan to lock up wall street bonuses long they are than before. it's a proposal that's part of the dodd-frank financial regulation. expected to be put in place in april. many firms hold back executive bonuses for three years. regulators want to extend the lockup. no word how long. but likely to be shorter than the european standard which is a decade, ten years. unclear how much of those bonuses would be held back. an early draft of the rules say it should be about 50%. we're looking at somewhere between three and five years. some regulators are trying to
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push for more. >> wealth managers are preparing for a new rule how they advise retirement savers. department of labor is expected to publish its fiduciary standard. that requires wealth managers to put the interest of retirement savers ahead of this own. i want seems odd that this is something that has to come up. you think they always have your fiduciary protection at mind. this is being put in to protect retirees from buying unnecessary products. opponents of the rule say it will lead to firms abandoning clients with smaller accounts. so if we don't get off of that we don't want to help you. this rule is expected to have a bigger impact on small wealth management firms that have smaller resources to pay for training, technology and extra paper work. the wealth managers are cutting fees, reducing minimum account balances and relying on technology. >> my broker friends were tweeting that they were disappointed in me what i said
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about the brokers and i said that was my broker, my ex-broker -- >> your past life. >> next time i'll go on the department of labor rants if you want me to. look at the way he made the appointments to the labor department. recess appointments. he stacked the deck. anything he wants. >> it's probably the way the rule is written. >> no one would disagree with that. but that is very true what we said at the very end. it's always the good intentions that lead. so anybody that doesn't have a big nest egg or has no potential will not be serviced any more. that's the end result of someone trying -- i hope that was enough. >> starboard now officially out with that announcement that they are mounting that proxy contest. seeking nine board members. we'll get you more information in just a moment. we mentioned it before. >> if you truly are, andrew, a master debater you can take
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either side. >> or if you're a lunatic. if tim cook is patriotic at all at this point to not open that phone, you know, after right -- >> what i will say. >> i can switch sides too. can you do my side. >> 100%. >> we should do that next week. >> you know the viewers think this is all theater anyway. >> it's not. >> i don't know. is it? you're not really a new york left wing lack of values ted cruz new yorker and i'm really not a -- >> no. i don't think. let's take a look at some stocks to watch. >> i'm the convenieventrilo kwu. >> who's the dumy. >> the maker of calvin cline and
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tommy hill apparel is giving down beat kwiedance. the company cites increased promotion and currency head winds. that will be up somewhere. someone will use that. >> aqua man. >> kb homes first quarter profit rising 68% beating forecasts. the home builder said a healthy backlog is contributing to a healthy outlook. raytheon raising its dividend. 12th straight year the defense contractor has boosted its annual pay out to shareholders. that thing i heard we got plenty of time. now i hear go, go. it's a finely tuned machine. >> when they tell us to talk we have -- >> finely tuned machine in there. if we miss a half hour we're all
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fired. >> diarrhea of the mouth. am cnet work joins us for the hour to talk media, and much more. we'll get data along with jobless claims. check out the futures. we're looking at dow futures down by 56, s&p down by 10 and nasdaq off by 22. "squawk box" will be right back. sir ridley scott, legendary filmmaker. are you a film buff, watson? no, but i am studying the visual storytelling in your movies. you know, it's amazing how much information is contained in a single image. one visual can make or break a film.
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i am analyzing images for factory managers, sales people and healthcare professionals. that's good watson. but not exactly movie material. perhaps the healthcare professional could be played by matt damon. you're learning, kid. something we'll show you.. through small things. big things. and spur of the moment things. sheraton. ♪ it recognizes pedestriansligent driand alerts you.ems. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't.
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and it can even stop by itself. so in this crash test, one thing's missing: a crash. the 2016 e-class. now receive up to a $3,000 spring bonus on the e350 sport sedan. hey kevin. hey, fancy seeing you here. uh, i live right over there actually. you've been to my place. no, i wasn't...oh look, you dropped something. it's your resume with a 20 dollar bill taped to it. that's weird. you want to work for ge too. hahaha, what? well we're always looking for developers who are up for big world changing challenges like making planes, trains and hospitals run better. why don't you check your new watch and tell me what time i should be there. oh, i don't hire people. i'm a developer. i'm gonna need monday off. again, not my call.
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markets now, oil sliding, stocks understand pressure and gold tracking its biggest weekly loss in four months. are investors fed up >> war of the wives. political battle between donald trump and ted cruz getting personal. new this morning details on their late night twitter fight. born to be blue. ethan hawk starring in a new film that tells the story of legendary jazz trumpeter chuck baker. the oscar nominated actor is in the house as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business
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worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're less than 90 manipulates way from the opening bell on wall street. futures have been weaker all morning long. the dow sitting close to 60 points of points below fair value. nasdaq down by 21, s&p down by 10. this is the last trading day of the week. energy prices are down as well. down two and a quarter percent. wti sitting at 38.92. looks like the biggest decliner of the major averages is the cac in france. down by 1.8%. the dax is off by 1 pop 3%. some stories that are getting our attention. jim bullard set to speak in new york at 8:15 eastern time. this is important because in comments yesterday he joined other central bank voices suggesting the fed could raise rates as early as next month. bit of a reversal from his view
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earlier when he was with us a couple of weeks ago with us. starboard launching a proxy fight to remove yahoo!'s entire board. it nominated slate of nine members. asking yahoo! to separate its asian assets and sell its core business. sar board owns less than 1% of the company. we spoke with an analyst and asked this question of a, what happens to marissa mayer and two is this a pressure tactic to sell the company. i would argue now having read the letter it is, they say they would be happy to reach a resolution. it's a tactic to put pressure on these folks to actually get a deal done. there has been a view that the board has dragged its feet. it's been described as auction theater, there's a pretend auction going on. now maybe we'll have a real auction. yum brands is in talks with private equity firm kkr and hoping to sell a minority stake
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in its chinese operations. they view the china business at $10 billion. >> some stocks to watch this morning. following some quarterly earnings reports. accenture reported quarterly profit, $1.34 per share. raised its full year forecast. winnebago a name near and dear to a couple of producers reporting a profit of 35 cents a share. two cents above estimates but revenue fell short of forecast. winnebago said it sees sales improving on the success of new products and a robust backlog. athletic apparel finish line came in three cents above estimates. the company said it benefitted from better supply management among other factors. if you move, you can move your
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house and your -- >> put it on wheels. >> and your pool. all right. >> new developments this morning in a very serious story for us. >> that's the problem. >> hard to transfer from that, but this new development out of belgium where terrorists killed 31, injured more than 200 just days ago. french and belgium media reporting a second attacker is suspected in taking part in the bombing of a brussels subway train. officials have not commented anthony report. chief suspect in the terrorist attack is facing a hearing in brussels today after his arrest last week. belgian authorities are charging him with terrorist activities. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us from brussels. good morning to you, michele. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. europeans are waking up this morning to the news that there are definitive connections
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between brussels attack two days ago and paris attacks in november. this paper says brussels and paris, this means the same team. here's why they believe that. the two brothers who died as suicide bombers one at the airport one at the train station they were believed to be accomplices in paris. the bomb maker of the paris bombs is believed to have died at the airport here in brussels on tuesday. so definitive connections, cross border situation when it comes to terrorist attacks but now criticism that there isn't enough cross border cooperation among the intelligence agencies in europe to help fend off attacks like we saw here. in the meantime not life back to normal here in brussels. there's pervasive military police presence throughout. you see metal detectors to get into various areas where normally they don't exist. at the train station there used to be four entrance. only one.
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they are frisking people as they go in and out. it has left everyone on edge. >> i'm running late because we are going through so many searches. so, yeah we've been stopped on all metro stations. i feel a bit nervous. >> reporter: you can hear the stress and the tension in her voice and there's a lot of people here in brussels who feel that way. in the newspapers, i'll show you one more newspaper. these are the tough ones. this newspaper has written in the names, the first names of the 31 people who died in the attacks on tuesday. you see a number of newspapers focusing on the victims and that's what's going on here as people mourn the victims of this attack. this is a makeshift memorial that has sprung up. >> michele, thank you. we'll check back in with you a little bit later today. let's get back to the markets. our next guest says the rest of
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the current economic recovery here in the united states will be characterized by need ear bear or a bull but by a bunny market. joining us to talk about that is jim paulson. jim, i think it's probably appropriate to start talking about bunny as few days before easter but what is a bunny market? >> well, i think we're conditioned in this business, becky to think either in territorial of the roaring bull or the raging bear and indeed that's the conversation today whether this is the recent rally a resumption of the bull or a bear market trap. the reality is a lot of post-war history has been characterized not by a bull or a bear but by a bunny market which hops around a lot but doesn't go anywhere. indeed bunny markets are most prevalent historically in the latter years of an economic recovery which is kind of what we have entered into. and little bit what we've experienced here over the last 12 to 18 months might be
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precursor to what we might see for the balance of this recovery. and i think that investors should there by think differently about this, not think is this a bull again or is it a bear but maybe get prepared for multiyear period of bunny market. you know, i think what happens early in the recovery, the stock market runs aggressively on undervaluation, on resurgent earnings cycle, lack of any interest rate pressures, and then it uses up all of that and it's hard to continue to sustain the bull run which is where we're at today. we have an aged earning cycle. we have high valuations. the fed will start pulling away. but on the other hand, i don't see where we're going to have a recession any time soon. and if you don't have a recession you're probably not going to have sustainable bear market. so we're caught in between. >> is that a recipe for buying in as an investor or what do you
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do? >> i think that's the key thing here, becky. i think there are different things to do as an investor rather than to be thinking about being risk on or risk off, i would throw out a few things. one thing is that maybe, maybe a little market timing would be beneficial from here. if the markets are going up 10%, 20% a year there's no need. if they waffle around you could try to benefit from the bunny hops, if you will, adding a little bit exposure when it hops down and -- >> do you have to wait for 10%. >> pick a range. i got a range this year of 1800 to 2,200 with a flat market, for example and would be adding in the lower part of that and looking more defensively above. but that's one thing is the margin. i think this really brings bunny markets bring the value out of active management, of stock tickers and sector rotraitat aoa
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bigger way. you can buy index funds and do well. but in bunny markets the value of good stock pickers shine relative to a market that doesn't go very far. you can consider putting more overseas too becky where those recoveries are at a younger stage than we are here in the united states and they could be more bullish for the next few years than bunnyish if you will. >> what markets are you talking about. we talked to a former european defense minister who has his own firm. he said look anybody who is telling you to buy into europe right now he's pretty pessimistic based on the economy and what's happened with these attacks. >> well, i like the international markets. i like the emerging markets probably better than i do the developed markets. but i also think the international markets might outperform the u.s. over the
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next few years as well. i just think they got companies that still have more upside earnings possibilities, they are better value, widely underowned. so i think they offer something, a contribution in the bunny market. two other things i would throw out. oftentimes in bunny markets in the latter parts of recovery, real assets, do better than financial assets. we're starting to have -- >> in real estate >> yeah. i think real estate, commodities. i think do a little better. we've had disinflation and deflation. we'll do better in the latter half. lastly you might finally consider some head strategies. head strategies don't do you much good if the public markets are going straight nowhere. but in markets that are sideways
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drifting, i think that value added from the hedge with risk management, i think might do a lot better. so i just think it's a mindset change from thinking about am i a bull or a bear to preparing for a bunny, if you will, particularly this coming weekend. >> interesting theory and jim. i want to thank you for being with us. have a great weekend. >> coming up everybody remembers that channel that used to have old movies, the black and white movies. never going to make anything of itself, right? old movies. then suddenly things like "walking dead" or "madmen," "breaking bad," on and on and a lot had to do with our next guest. i won't say the first two words it's a horrific website run by this partisan hack. amc ceo josh sapan is our guest host. he joins us next.
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then later spouse spat. the battle between gop presidential candidates ted cruz and donald trump turning from politics to family. have to talk about that. the detail of the late night twitter fight is next. the first stock index ♪ (musiwas createdoughout) over 100 years ago as a benchmark for average. yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? it's time to bench the benchmarks.
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welcome back to "squawk box" today. in our headlines vice media disputing a story from variety it's web traffic dropped. vice says that the variety story only looks at a small part of its business. in a statement to cnbc vice says according to comescore traffic to vice's websites grew between january and february. any suggestion otherwise is entirely inaccurate and false. we'll talk media this this morning. our guest host for the rest of the hour is am cnet work president and ceo josh sapan.
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some people pronounce your way many ways. >> perfectly okay. >> fast company naming him one of the 100 most creative people in business. >> easy. >> media sector has had a rough start in 2016. amc, stock down 14%. let's start our conversation this morning with the state of the content business and the changing media landscape. leapt me put this to you. one of my favorite shows, you made a very interesting decision to sell parts of that to netflix early. "breaking bad" succeeded because you gave it to netflix and people caught up. you've done this now almost immediately. so i can watch if i missed it on amc, catch up with it on netflix. how does that change the whole landscape? >> so, the relationship between linear channel like ours and
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streaming services like netflix or hulu are interesting. they support linear viewing, you can catch up generally a year later is our standard policy, be caught up and be ready for the new season. >> or rewatch. >> exactly right. it's not a simple thing. it's not one thing or the other. argue squablly there arguably it's mostly sympathic. >> are you worried people will decided i'll watch everything on over the top service. >> the task becomes making content that's your again enough, interesting enough, timely enough you don't want to wait a year to see your new favorite. so it's a fun challenge. means you have to really want to be in, be immersed, have a great time and love it. >> what's changing -- used to be on monday mornings people would go to work and sit around the
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office cooler and say did you see such and such on sunday night. why every show put out on sunday night. >> everybody is there on sunday night. >> but now i hear more and more from people who say no, i watched it on tuesday night because i'm just shifting the whole thing. >> that's true but there's probably 15 million humans who watch the "walking dead" because they want to be in the conversation on monday morning. there's some of that you have to fight against. there's the technology and if you're your again and immersive then you're in the conversation. >> what do you do about binging. so many people for certain series say these are seer that come out every sun night. i'm going to wait. i'm going wait all 12 weeks and wait until the end and then bing the whole thing. >> yeah. that's an interesting issue in the business because of course we sell advertising. that is meaningful.
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and as i mentioned it's not one thing or the other. it supports linear viewership and can drain away opportunities. you have to be hopefully wise how you use it and balance it. >> how do you juggle that? i find myself in the same position. i like to watch two or three episodes at a time because i get more bang for my buck. i rarely have an hour to sit down particularly when the kids aren't awake if i want to watch something like the "walking dead." how do you get the most out of me? >> you're tough because you guys are busy. no kidding. you're a little sleep deprived. you're toughest guys to invite and command to do what we like most likely to do. with people with more time on their hands and they want to be part of the conversation. the task is ours to make it a bit of an event and to make the conversation something that you want to be a part of. a lot plays into that not just the content but social media
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plays into it, surprise plays into it. >> amc has effectively created premium television with advertising. >> yeah. >> from a story telling perspective how different is that from trying to create a story without advertising on an hbo are a showtime or somewhere where there isn't. how do you think about that? >> it's a great question. and i don't know if a year or so ago we acquired half interest in another channel that we think of premium on basic with ads along with sundance channel and others. it's not amc. our portfolio has that issue. i think that it is a bit of a challenge because you can answer reflexively and say oh, gee i don't want to watch measure shals a -- commercials and you have to make it meaningful with cliff hangers and --
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>> how do you do that? you're earning with it a cliffhanger but if it's not going to be a commercial and plays later it goes into the next thing. you got to think about that. if it happens right away. >> there's a little bit of rhythm that one can take advantage of and, you know, people who are really good at it know how to write. they really know how to write for a break. and take maximum advantage. the break is one of the tools of the trade. >> we're going to take a pause. you'll be here for the rest of the hour. i want to talk about some of the mergers that may or may not happen in this space and what that may mean for you in a little bit. >> i want to talk about whether josh is a creative genius or whether you're a cablevisionary. >> science or art. >> i'm in the next room. >> we can all know what that's about. coming up war of words, photos and tweets between donald trump
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and ted cruz. this must report on the story, we will do because it tops today's political talk next.
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welcome back, everybody. on the campaign trail the personal attacks between donald trump and ted cruz reached a new wlefl their wives getting
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dragged into the rivalry. this anti-trump ad featuring trump's wife was created by a stop trump group. it ran in utah. meant to turn off the mormon voters. i want says meet melania trump your next first lady. trump denounced the ad as inappropriate and said his campaign had nothing to do with it. that didn't stop trump from threatening cruz that he would spill the beans about cruz's wife heidi. cruz has said candidates shouldn't attack each other spouses or children. when we come back breaking economic data, weekly jobless claims and durable goods. stay tune, "squawk box" will be right back. or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you
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welcome back to box. we're approaching 8:30 now on the east coast. a couple of big headlines. starboard launching a proxy fight to remove yahoo!'s entire board. nominate ad slight of nine directors including jeffrey smith and seeking to replace the company's ceo marissa mayer on that board. unclear whether she would stay
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as ceo. james bullard suggesting that he's got some issues, maybe switching around by the way for the first time. he's speaking in new york right now. he's suggesting the next hike may not be far off. he was just here saying the opposite a couple of weeks ago. reports out of europe saying a second attacker may have taken part in the bombings in the brussels subway station this week and may still be at large. officials not commenting. in the meantime we have weekly jobless games and durable goods. we'll get to rick santelli who is standing by at the cme in chicago. >> reporter: 265,000 on initial claims from a slightly or actually pretty decent size revision. 265 last week was released like today. downgraded to 259. we're up 6,000 from that revised number. just a bit shy of 2.18 million on continuing. down 2.8 on february preliminary
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read on durable goods. darn close to expectations. it isn't about expectations. sequentially not looking so good. 4.2 last time. revised lower from 4.7 compared to minus 2.8. take out transportation it's down 1%. the all-important proxy for business spending capital goods orders nondefense aircraft was down 1% more than expected and if we switch from the orders to the shipments actually i take that back. x transportation was down 1. capital goods or nondefense aircraft was down 1.8. shipments were down 1.1. that comes after last month's data on every side was positive except for the shipments orders. so not a great set of data points here but kind of expected. of course we have a long weekend. we have early closes in the futures and cash for the interest rate and foreign exchange complex and that's
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going to be interesting as equities fend for itself for several hours after those. the reason? you never know. volatility has been low. a lot of short. we'll be anxiously watching those last couple of hours. becky, back to you. have 0 a great easter. steve liesman joins us with' action to today's data points. >> the jobs numbers continue to be good. 250, 200,000. we'll get to marissa mayer. the claim numbers have been low. manufacturing sector the economy is challenged. we had a good month last month. it fell back this month. and it's a very volatile series but i don't think i'm seeing any surge in business spending and a challenge. i want to get to something else. the government tomorrow is going to report the third revision to fourth quarter gdp. we did an in depth analysis of the government's reports on gross domestic product and they show large and persistent errors that give everyone from
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investors to business executives to policymakers pause in relying on this early data for key decisions. we went back to 1990. we found average error rate of 1.3 puerto rico centsage points plus or minus in those initial three gdp reports compared to where it will affect. that's compared to where it's revised to years later with more complete data. initial report let's say it's 2%, on average will later be revised to 3.3 or 0.7. the research doesn't show any systematic overstatement or understatement of growth. we also found about 30% of the time the government gets direction of growth wrong. that is gdp initially shown to be higher in the previous quarter to be revised to be lower and vice versa. the error rate hasn't improved over the decades despite vast improvement in computer power. despite revisions from '08 to 2013 same as those from 1990 to
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1995. error rate in the second and third estimates of gdp they are the same as the first. so you have more time, more data, but the revisions are just going to be as large three months after the end of the quarter as they are one month after. the associate director for national economic accounts at the bureau of economic analysis the bea puts the report together. he told cnbc quote, we're working to try to get more accurate data in time to improve the advanced gdp estimate. revisions are not errors. they represent improvements to the gdp estimate as more information becomes available. we contacted a bunch of economists and requested them to guess the error rate. they did not in general choit. they were off by a half to two-thirds. but they did add it's a bigger more complex and esoteric. we found errors in business spending, intellectual property. consumption is an average error rate. one aspect to all of this they
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are pretty decent error rates in the government portion of gdp accounts so the government doesn't count the government all that good. >> two issues on this. one is, this is ridiculous why do we even look at these numbers. and the second is, why this huge delay in getting the data. you stayed government is part of the problem? >> right. they have to wait a year to get complete wage data or a year to get like data from the irs. they have to go through the tax forms. people are late in filing their tax forms. people amend their tax forms. every five years there's an economic census a broader economic census. you know, it seems like there should be ways including incorporating private-sector data, including maybe a funding issue for the bea, some economists suggested that. they don't incorporate -- in this world of increasing meta data -- you would think we could use some of that. there should be some experimental stuff. a lot of people come forward,
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initiati economists say gdp is not a good measure of wealth satisfaction and happiness in the economy anyway and there are other measures out there. the main message is those first three reports advanced, first and second and third estimates take those with huge caution. we showed times when, for example the fed was meeting at the beginning of '08 and gdp was reported splus 0.6% and cut a quarter to 2%. that number would be later revised to minus 2.2%. maybe they would have cutmore. we saw for example second quarter of '92 george bush running for re-election in that time. growth reported 1.4%. lots of complaints about the economy. bill clinton gets elected. in later years that number is revised to north of 4%. let's bring in michelle meyer. michele, i'm a little schocked by hearing this. what do you think?
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>> it's a big number. 1.3% is large especially more recently when the economy is only growing 2%. you're talking about a big chunk of that overall gdp number. the point steve made is it doesn't improve between the second and third is important. where a lot of revision comes from are these benchmark revisions that happen annually. sometimes they are methodology, sometimes more data. it can fundamentally change the picture. so when we thought we were looking at a gdp, a year or two later it can look different. >> we did fine you can reduce your error rate of knowing where the economy is by averaging the prior four quarters. still at 0.6. >> again a lot of important decisions and market moves are based on those numbers that come up instantaneously. >> the other thing we found is that fed officials tell me privately at least that -- they said this publicly as well, that when they have a contradiction between jobs and gdp they go
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with jobs. that the jobs number even though that's plus or minus a hundred thousand. >> that to me is off. >> you don't have revision in jobs. you have annual rate of jobs. >> you have much more information. >> exactly. >> the other thing it's like a nod to joe and the argument we've had over 13 years of does the market show, have a better read on where it's going. this is a thing well maybe the market is a better gauge when -- we've seen it be wrong half the time. >> you should just keep, whenever i talk, right? >> i should bobble head more. >> it shows you don't let things stand in your way. you'll give credit where credit is due. >> i don't let my respect for you stand in the way of all the things you've said to me in the last 13 years. >> we had a market guy with us earlier today and said he's concerned about capital
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expenditures falling so far below and that that will eventually catch up to stocks, that, you have to pay the piper at some point if you're not reinvesting in the business. do you worry about that >> i do. the data we got this morning is not helpful in that respect. durable goods orders even the guts of the core shipments were down more than expected. so that's going take down tracking estimates for the first quarter of gdp. generally speak being what we've seen a turn in the profit cycle. starting to see -- you've seen low productivity, starting to see wage growth and haven't seen businesses be really forceful about cap x throughout this recover. conditions are less favorable for corporations you'll have less expenditures. that's problematic for the economy. >> michele thank you. and steve thank you. full online, got a full take on our research in case people are interested. >> thank you. coming up, ethan hawke is in
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the house and tell us why he's born to be jazz icon chet baker. i may go slower just to let this go. autumn leaves. we'll be right back. with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? it's time to bench the benchmarks. with extraordinary offersmance saon the visionary ls, the generously appointed es and the new, eight-passenger lx. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection.
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our next guest standard in big block busters like "the dead poets society" and his latest film "born to be blue," ethan hawke portrays chet baker. amc film division will release the noechl. joining us now oscar nominated actor and filmmaker and director, writer, ethan hawke. first thing i was going to ask you chet baker fans, i don't think there's a lot of them necessarily and are unique in being fans together. i was not a fan until his come back in 1974. i think i was 18 years old. bob james. hubert laws. but did you go all the way back to the charlie parker, jerry mulligan. were you a fan of his music. >> my relationship of it started later. it didn't start to right before
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he died. he died right after i graduated high school. and there was this documentary that "let's get lost" came out. i didn't know anything about jazz at all. and i saw that movie and found the whole world and mystic around him just enigmatic and strange and seductive. i started buying records. so billy holiday was my entry point to jazz. that brought me into the bee pop scene. i walked through it and trying to understand it. >> it makes me think, i read some of the stuff that you talk about, heroin runs through all. billy holiday. it's amazing. >> you have to understand. >> especially charlie parker. >> your friends and idols. >> it's prevalent. it's a little tragic but it
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has -- how people manage their depression and their feelings in life of inadequacy or disappointment or fear orange it, how people manage is that better way to look at it in a strange way. usually drug and alcohol addiction are the symptom not the cause. there's a problem that starts before that starts. >> i look at some of your movies and i'll tell you a story after we get off the air about my son why he's obsessed with "boyhood" and "sunrise" and the way that -- if you could have done that original charlie parker, i'm sorry chet parker as a young ethan hawke -- >> which is what you're referring to, 15 years ago, richard linkletter and i worked on a movie about chet baker. we had a script.
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this was when i was 28, 29 years old and i didn't get to nake movie. i was super disappointed about it. 15 years later this ship sails around. here's a new script about chet in his 40s that's actually visiting him at kind of a more vulnerable and interesting moment. so i felt like i was making the sequel to a film i never got to make. >> could you have had more action scene its in that first one. >> i could have had more fun. back in the days where he had -- you know, that whole lighthouse west coast. >> maybe you should get somebody else to play him. >> my hope is this movie will do really well and i'll produce it for linkletter and find a happening young guy. >> happening for chet. >> when you think about taking on a film role, thinking about a big budget film or a small budget film, indy film, how do you make that calculus. >> for me it's balance.
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if all you do is express yourself, like then you won make anybody any money and you won't make any money or get my more jobs. all i want to do is express myself. if i want to be in business i would be in business. what i want to do is make meaningful substantive art that's my mission. >> do you think you can make meaningful substantive art and make a lot of money. >> that can't be your goal. bob billion has made substantive art and martin scorsese. you can't make that your goal. there's like a great documentary about a baseball coach that richard linkletter made, "inning by inning." he's a koch won five national who championships with five different school.
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they asked him the yankees have approached him everybody has approached himmo don't yhim, wh koch professional ball. the idea of professional baseball is to win. i teach young players how to play. i try to never do wish -- you just have to keep a part of your brain available to the idea of making things that people want to see versus making things that you really want to do and when you find the intersection of those two things, kpyou know, that's thecle can you miscellaneo -- calculus. >> so many want to be on tv. >> the world the changing. some of the best writers and directors and every talent is working on television. >> did you sing?
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>> in the movie. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> you have to. he just wants to talk about chet. wait a second. >> you microsoft have learned -- >> i want to talk about miles. i think it's really interesting you point out, you talk about miles. they don't even mention chet. >> that's because miles -- birth of the cool changed everything for jazz fans. miles davis, charlie parker, you get back to charlie -- >> miles had about four revolutions. >> he is on the dais to wolfgang mozart. charles bake certificate a gifted fascinating trumpet player. miles davis is a revolutionary. >> chet had an unbelievably, like a life you would want to put in a movie but so did miles. >> what i want to tell you that
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you'll find interesting how chet got his break was auditioning for charlie parker. charlie parker was doing his tour, doing a west coast tour didn't have a trumpet player. chet baker was the charlie parker had ever met and the only person he had ever met who could play his solos back for him, and it's because neither one could read music. they both had a complete innate sense of music. and so, the word is that charlie parker called up miles and said, oh, there's this little white cat on the west coast trying to eat you up. or chet parker called miles. and that was chet's, you know, pride and moment -- it probably never happened, but yes, i'm one of you guys! >> yeah, exactly. >> going to be doing an hour special on it. >> first thing i'm going to do is find that original documentary, which i have not seen. >> oh, "let's get lost," you've got to see it. it's beautiful. the first thing you've got to do --
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>> yeah. >> see my movie. come on, man, who are you talking to here? >> yeah, right. then we'll do the prequel. maybe i'll help you with that, make some money. >> yeah, great. >> thank you. doing business. >> thank you, ethan. >> thank you, ethan. >> thanks for having me on, appreciate it. >> thanks for coming. you also directed another documentary for us, "seymour" -- >> piano. >> a beautiful, loveliest thing there is. >> as a music lover, you'll like it. the lexus command performance sales event is on.
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welcome back to "squawk box." let's get down to the new york stock exchange where our good friend, jim cramer, joins us now. mr. cramer, would you back starboard's effort to get rid of the entire board of yahoo! with no premium? >> well, they would be stealing the company, but i do think yahoo! when they came on the first week of february and we spoke with marissa mayer, it sounded like something good was going to happen. and then we keep hearing that they're not engaged. what this could do is force some engagement, bring out some value. so, i think i support the notion that they should be doing something. maybe this wakes up yahoo! which seemed to have, you know, went into sleep mode. you know how some of your
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devices go into sleep mode? maybe they went into sleep mode after they first came out, and i think this could hasten maybe a bit from verizon, which i know wants these assets very badly. >> by the way, could she get kicked off the board and then stay as the ceo? >> that seems illogical. it doesn't seem like that would be the case. look, i think that these guys could turn this thing around very, very quickly, and i think that people don't understand, there is a lot -- i've been saying over and over again, there is a lot of hidden value in yahoo! but it seems to be staying hidden with this current management. what a diplomat, geez. >> okay. >> wow. >> thanks, jim. >> there's billions here, andrew. >> billions all around. coming up, amc network's ceo josh sapan will tell us about the network's upcoming slate of shows. here's a hint -- content is still king. back in a moment. so if i wanna go to jersey and check out shotsy tuccerelli's portfolio, what's it to you?
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we believe in the power of active management. anagement, we actively manage with expertise and conviction. so you can invest with more certainty. mfs. that's the power of active management. welcome back, everybody. our guest host this morning, amc felt work's president and ceo, josh sapan. hey, josh, let's talk a little bit about the market and how the market values a lot of the different entertainment companies out there, because it's been this up and down. we know you have delivered a steady stream of hits, you still have a lot of big numbers that are out there, but lately, there
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have been questions in the marketplace about any of the content to creators, suggesting, how can you keep it up, how can you keep this stream of hits coming, that raise issues like that. we go back and forth from thinking content is king to thinking, oh, my gosh, how do you continue to feed the beast. what do you say to people about that? >> i think there's probably a little bit of tentativeness in the way the market feels about media. i do think that content is king, and i do think that the exploitation and monetization of content on multiple platforms, which increases by the day -- we have cable channels, international channels -- is redemption. it really does work, and it means you become a distributor, meaning a channel, and you also become a studio, to use that word. you actually own the content and exploit it now in multiple places and for a long time, so -- >> do you need to get even bigger in terms of content? >> i think more content and great content is better. i don't think scale for scale's
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sake matters. >> well, we want to thank you for being with us today. it's really a pleasure. >> thanks so much for having me. it's great to see you. >> thank you. >> i have to ask you something. we're going to go and i'm going to toss it to the next show, then i'll ask you a question. sorry. make sure you join us on monday. "squawk on the street" is next. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm karl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. david faber's off. heading into a long easter weekend with a weak premarket and the s&p once again negative on the year. europe zone in the red, oil under more pressure. we'll talk about this dollar rebound that is continuing. our "roadmap" begins with starboard lawn aeyg a proxy fight with yahoo! pushing a move. the board getting ready to name nine new members. ubs slapping a accelerating on wells foro, citingis

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