enough said. >> dan nathan? >> a seller last week, still a seller at 23. i'm going to stick to my guns here. >> i'll see you tomorrow night at 5:00. that does it for us. "mad money" begins right now. . my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i'm here to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. today dow broke out above the 18,000 level. only 107 points to close over 18,000. the spp gaining .6%.
you have to wonder, how did we get to this level? most thought it would be impossible three months ago. one that so many said was an impossible. the secret? a singularly odd group of stocks in the dow jones averages that have one thing in common. they're the least expected winners imaginable! ♪ hallelujah. >> let's start with caterpillar. over 16% year to date. we know it won't be pretty. >> house of pain! >> caterpillar's end markets are in gas. earth moving, coal might know. i can't think of a worse group of customers. plus, cat has a gigantic business in china and we know how weak china is, right? latin america is a disaster. quite a change from the old days. in short, caterpillar has been a
great earner. far worse than we would have thought four or five years ago. and this is a big but. caterpillar stock already reflected a lot of the negatives coming into 2016. it was hard to come up with anything in december that made feel like the stock deserved to go higher. worse, one month ago the company appeared, just appeared, that's important, to slash the first quarter earnings estimates. immediately the bears took aim at cat pilar and said it was a disaster. cat has never given any first quarter guidance so there was nothing to cut. the real thing was the full year guidance. that's what they were doing. given the most people thought it was an impossibility, this revelation of an estimate calmed investors into believing the worst is over. not that there was an estimate cut. wrong takeaway! since then two thing have
happened. the dollar is peaked against many major currencies and secondly, the measure of the movement of the heavy dry goods you needed a cat mover to get it out of the ground. it is going to 659 today. a lot of kit come down with the company reports. the fact 'tis representative of the rolling bull market that i've been talking about. the one that's taking the industrials. the second big performer, a real head scratcher. walmart. walmart. up 14% in 2016. this one is nothing short of incredible. like caterpillar, there hasn't been a good thing said about walmart in a year. all i can say so what? it got sold when the company lowered the boom. it has done nothing to beat them. i can say it is going backwards. however the fact is like cat,
walmart should probably never have gotten to $56 last november. it had been going down for months. from $90 to $60 when we found out how bad things really were. so the stock was way, way ahead of the news. that's how you get 14% rally. nothing what is over. except that most retailers are doing badly because they focused on apparel. walmart doesn't focus on apparel. it is one of the only reasons could it bounce of there is nothing fundamental happening. hit a major, people have been expecting case pointing number. they leave to it worldwide growth and the company has been disappointing. but it is one of the ceos who readjusts on the fly and he fixed underperforming divisions. in february he announced the $10 billion buyback along with the did i have denied boost and explained how they would drive the growth that so many had given up on.
that was a miss take. like caterpillar and walmart, 3m came in to this 2016 year with very low expectations and didn't need to do much to dispel the gloom. the others got oversold. fourth place verizon up just under 12%. this is an example of a better than expected quarter and a big safe did i have denied yield. when fed chief janet yellen scratched the thesis, this became a bond or at least a bond market equivalent and it sent shares skyrocketing. verizon deserved every penny of that move given how hard it is to find something that's safe. next up, ibm. i don't know if they can maintain the gauge.
the stock went up right after the close. then it got hit any way. they didn't raise the full year guidance. i think had ibm not gotten up so much, it might have taken inline forecast in stride. in other words, it might not have gone down at all. to be clear, it sure couldn't rival the shortfall of netflix which missed its projection. i expect downgrades tomorrow of you want unlikely winners? how about chevron and exxon. you may think it is odd considering the doleout conference led to oil production but 2016 is about supply and demand. supply is dropping so fast. when maxed with increasing demand. that's why they can keep climbing. technologieds has had several
disappointments. earlier honey well made a hostile takeover. and amazingly the stock is only building on that right tacking on another 5 points cynic the takeover. how is that possible? i think this technologies rally is part and parts we will the bull market we've seen with caterpillar. the rolling bull market. the market will be judged if there's too much negativity i know what low interest rates. here and the return in europe. all which could come to better earnings market. it makes sense that the stock is up 9% for the year. it is being fueled by, well, nothing. we see nothing good yet from it. it makes them under. and emboldens the short salers. however, the efforts of the leader have been disastrous. as the market believes. it is only a matter of time before they get better.
number 9. no matter how many times people tell me to get off the mcdonald's band wagon, i'm convinced, might expect to be on the show but i expect steve to come on the show. fundamentally turning the old growth company back into a worldwide juggernaut. lying it is hated. i ain't saying you ain't seen nothing yet. but the darn thing was so undermanaged that i don't think it is finished going higher. mcdonald's should never have been trading in the high 80s, low 90s to begin with. like so many of its brethren, people believe it would have a horrible year. it was taking a beating on the affordable care act. what we didn't count on, unh would be bold enough to pull out of the exchanges that it was taking a beating. like the other stocks. they didn't deserve to sell at the same low level if it wasn't
going to lose as much money as we thought it would. here's the bottom line. how do we get to 18,000 today despite the na ympblsayers? simple. we shouldn't have been given the circumstances were for the better. if you semiin 2015, the destocks deserved a hammering but not a beatdown. oscar in florida. oscar! >> caller: i want to say your show is amazing. >> thaurks oscar. thank you vex. >> caller: my question should we look at cuba for the promising investment in star wars? >> that's way too small a thing to move the needle. i would not go there. i think-thing is all played out and done. we like windham, one by the incredibly good steve holmes how many about artie in california?
artie! >> caller: hi, jim. my question on time warner cable. before the charter, when do you think is the best time to sell it. >> no. i think you're done. we had that, nice gainful let's move on. we don't want to do. got to be hogs. i talk about the good ones but i have the bad once too. a rebound got to 18,000. stay tuned for what's next on "mad money" tonight. the company behind lecroy which has become a symbol for fitness gurus and i bet you never heard of it. what was once the quint essential american band is down 40%. man! tonight i'll tell you if the decline will continue. when it comes to oil prices, it
it's time to address one of the best performance stocks you've probably never heard of. national beverage. the aptly tickered fizz. coca-cola is rallying 15%. national beverage is in the dust. this one has been 91% higher over the same period. come. on that's an astonishing move for a little known soft drink maker. it has climbed 224% over the last three years. what the neck is going on with
national beverage? more importantly, can the stock continue its incredible run? let's understand what i think. this company is a could not gng and national brands. energy drinks, other drinks. remember shasta like mt. shasta? a 125-year-old soft drink brands that comes with ginger ale, root beer to very cherry twist and fiesta punch. ritz, a drink that's big in the southeast and big shot, the new orleans base maker with fruity flavored sodas. so far not to get excited about it. even if it is the fourth biggest soft drink company in the country. national beverage has ever fresh for fruit juice i know what home juice and ohana for lemonade.
perhaps the real claim to fame these days is in the bottled water business. the company makes lacroix! the fastest growing sparkling water brand in the united states which has been a huge driver. they have some flavored water products like spree, clear fruit, crystal bay, asante and cascadeia. ripping energy fuel and mega sport. aside from lacroix, that's a pretty unremarkable set of assets. i never heard of any of them until we started reaching them. maybe you drink them of i was in new orleans last week and i didn't see big shot. if the stock has more than tripled, the s&p 500 is up 36%, they sold off hard innian and february. so the market got slammed. remember that was supposed to be like the great bear market of 2016? since the february bottom, it has come back.
barely more than two months. lacroix? what's the secret. first of all, national beverage has been very smart that positioning itself. sure, they have a big soft drink business and we know the whole carbonated category is far from popular but it is the healthier branls. lacroix is far from new. a regional brand that has exploded on the national scene of late. they are efforts for the product. that was a very savvy move when you consider that i see numbers suggesting the consumption group at an stounling 26% clip. that's phenomenal. and lacroix has been the fastest growing. i know some people have asked me about it. now i know. the national beverage ceo identified that opportunity. he found a way to plate which is how lacroix has seen its sales more than double. making it second to perrier in
the sparkling water market. i thought that's amazing. how can he turn it into a national powerhouse? they acquired lacroix in 1996. five years ago they relaunched the brand with new neon packaging and a much broader distribution market. major retailers like target, whole foods, giving brand increased shelf space. the big boys in the business, coca-cola, the market is too small to move the whole needle for dmem the lack of focus has allowed the smaller market to steal show. they have dramatically boosted the sales. national beverage saw the market fall roughly flat. in the last three quarters the company has started to put up real year over year growth. and it is accelerating. up to 13.1% in the most recent
quarter versus 9.2 in the quarter before that. meanwhile, the earnings per share increased by 17.5% in the first three quarters of 2016. that swing is the major reason. money managers are addicted to accelerating revenue growth. or arg as it is called. think of arg, they can't get enough of it. they'll do anything to get i. that explains it. should we just say we missed it? i have to say i have a hard time recommending this stock. for start ferries we assume that national beverage can continue growing earnings at a 70% clip, that means they can earn $1.53. i suggest 30 times estimates.
very expensive versus coca-cola. a fabulous quarter this morning, or dr. pepper snapple. plus, all three have these companies. it is not just the stock is expensive. let's consider where the growth has been coming from. lacroix sparkling water. there is no question this brand has been hot. at the end of the day, what is it? it's carbonated water. carbonated water. national beverage doesn't have any proprietary edge. now big boys are trying to muscle in. pepsiy has just launched aqua finda water. it is hard to imagine lacroix continuing explosive growth if the competition continues. one more thing. the chairman who controls the possibly 71.5% of the national beverage. a private company called ibs
partners. i'm calling a bit of a wild card to put it diplomatically. he is now 80 years old. he doesn't have to answer to anybody. he's done a good job running things. no succession plan. and tonight get too personal but he's a teeny bit eccentric. let me read you this. rich in earned equity. shasta sparkling is now far superior to its -- healthy innocence of natural essenced flavored sparkling water. sounds like something from dr. strangelove. purity of essence. he says there is a certain intuitive sense one has when long awaited circumstances align. like the sunrise of the new dawn. clear, crisp burst orange rising
from the distant horizon. you know what i mean? a little latitude in how you express yourself. if that's not the sound of irrational exuberance, i don't think what is. the essence of -- here's the bottom line. national beverage has been knocking it out of the park the last couple years thanks to their decision. but the valuation is far from cheap and i don't see how they can fend off coke keel and pepsico. if you missed the move, wait for the next pitch. remember, it's a bright sunshine out there. ha! any way, much more "mad money" ahead. not we'll see what went wrong and whether the stock on sale or neighbor out of style or just bad.
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it's a question we've been investigating ever since starbucks ceo howard schultz first put it in our heads a few years ago and it is an issue we will continue to ponder. our first stop is perhaps the quint essential mall company, the gap. a perfect place to ponder the mall. what's wrong with the gap? here's a company that used to be the quint essential american brand bax nana republic and old navy. they were taking shares all over the country. even as recently as two years tag company seemed to be back on track with a major turn around that took the company to $46 and change. just since september 2014. since thint has been in free fall. down nearly 50% and a little
over a year and a half. remember the old commercials with the tag line, fall into the gap? that's how the stock feels tots shareholders. endless free fall. clawing brutal punch from $29 down to $24 today on some very sub par results. all of which begs the question, what the heck is the mat we are this chain? how do we explain this? gap's hay day was in the 1990s when gap, banana republic, they cooled off significantly. first it reverse asked then again through the great recession. few years ago it seemed it found its footing. maybe even a genuine comeback. with the stock roaring high from 2012 to 2015. since then gap have been getting back gains left and right including a 41% decline last year and the latest over the last few weeks, hideous.
what exactly has gone wrong? maybe to some degree it is self-explanatory. the first major warning sign came when glen murray, the long serving ceo said he was stepping down in october 2014. he had been running the coil since 2007 and directing the nation turn-around. he handed the reins over. first things seemed to be going pretty smoothly thanks to some incredible strength at old navy. however, by may of last year, everything started falling apart. that's when game started reporting the sales down an astonishing 20% across the board including 15% at gap and banana republic and the 6% backslide at old navy. then they delivered a nasty at this revenue miss. at the time they blamed the merchandise saying, i quote. we have some quality and fit issues. we've actually taken this step
of canceling some styles that we had and we knew were not saleable. in short, the people running the company thought they had a problem with the product. that's not you good. but maybe a well run retailer would be able to fix and they tried on fix it. last june he wrote out initiatives. game announced claims to close about 175 of the worst locations. also laying off workers at its headquarters. even though market welcomed this news, it wasn't enough to turn it around and gap reported declining sales through last summer. the company entered the 2015 school season without much momentum. then they lost the president of old navy who left to take position at ralph lauren. and then it was a really ugly quarter. then gap had an awful holiday season with november sales down 5%. finally in february the stocks
started to rebound. all of it was erased in the blink of an eye. all three divisions doing badly. this time banana republic, down 14. one after another! we have to be careful. i think the problems began at the core group brand. it's true they have had real trouble. being really difficult, right? not to mention a complete loss of cohesive vision. this is kind of thing a major retailer should and must fix. gap hand been able to do that. thanks to a steady rotation of design leadership and some major marketing mishappens like the dress normal campaign in the fall of 2014. they may recognize that they're ball selling nondescript
clothing but customers like to think of being a little trendy. but it is hard when the shop itself is describing itself as boring clothes for normal people. hey. put on some normal clothes. not really a selling point if you ask me. in short, the game brand ais at best directionless b. banana republic is in the same place. that's what the bad numbers are about. in reason years old navy has been the one standout with you even its numbers have been flagging and i can't imagine it will be better the president have old navy leaving for the greener pastures of ralph lauren. that's part of the problem. they've had serious trouble retaining top level talent. beyond that they've shown a remarkable ability to keep up with trends. game used to be a trend setter. now it is trends like h & m,
forever 21, and they can turn out new cheap designs at a matter of weeks. at the gap they need to design about a year in advance, leaving the whole company behind the curve when it comes to style. gap seems to have no idea how to cope in this new fashion. gap is a dinosaur. last week gap announce that had sonja, an experienced supply chain manager will be taking over. they have run things in recent years. maybe that means they're committed to becoming faster and leaner. i think old navy needed a merchant. not just a supply chain to fix joint to fix joint. even with all these internal issues. be the long term secular decline of the shopping mall.
we've heard from countless retail betters the downturn of shopping malls. people are shopping online. you'd better believe it is a major percentage and that does not bode well with mall traffic which according to some reports is plunged by as much as, are you ready? month of march? 17% down. ouch! so here's the bottom line. do not, i repeat do not fall into the gap. here's a company that lost its way quite some time ago. gap is having an identity crisis when it come to its brands and that's serious issues. even if they fix everything, this company would be one of the biggest decline in shopping mall traffic. maybe gap can get that its act together but don't hold your breath. gap is beginning to feel like a value trap that can't be fixed any time soon. if at all. larry in massachusetts.
>> caller: happy anniversary, jill. many more. >> i tried to keep it a secret by having 500 of my best friends over. >> caller: on the heels of a contradictory upgrade by piper, foot locker was admitted to the s&p 500 on april 1st. 34 stores. with a serious web presence. versace, they seem to believe the best days are ahead of them. i couldn't prove by the parking this weekend. do you agree? >> i've been really struggling with this. the trifecta news they like it. i know i do believe in underarmor this week, i do believe in nike. i am on the fence with foot locker. i told our staff, we have to drill down to see if this
company, if it weren't in the mall, would be doing better. larry, i'm on the fence. i know that's not the answer you want but it is as fair as i can get it. how about allen in new york? allen? >> caller: a beautiful monday boo-ya to you! >> your way. >> caller: my question is i grew up playing video games and i'm really excited about the virtual reality headset. a pretty healthy price point. is that a reason to own it? >> somebody on twitter, it is like the real sony. people have these really silly things like the absolute actual sony. saying virtuiality will control. it doesn't control. right now the dollar is in control and sony, i would say this is hurting them. i think it is time to sell.
skip it. don't trust your portfolio in the gap. no need. if it goes up, do some selling. much more "mad money" ahead. there was no deal in doha. what gives? plus, my homework is due. a health care name that has been highlighted as a takeover target that i now like. change of plans. and the inl lightning around is just in. so stick with cramer! show me movies with romance.
x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. here's some news that could be so crushing for you so cover your children's ears. i'm be perfect. i am neither all knowing nor all seeing. because someone will call in about a stock i don't know. because this is the most interactive show on television, i do the homework and get back to you even though stocks i don't really care about. my job is to respond to what you want me about to.
for example, last wednesday, i was asked about aegn. that's a genuine stumper. this is a tiny company that is nevertheless the leaders in the infrastructure protection space providing lining that's prevent corrosion. hey, that means everything from industrial energy pipelines to water and stewart sems. aegion has had a rough time. roughly half the business was related to energy and mining. but on the other hand the relatively new ceo charles gordon took over in 2014 and has started a major restructuring problem. and with so many headlines latebly lead poisoning, the water supply of cities across the country. they are exactly who you call about lead i'm thats and poisoning people. stock fairly inspegsive.
but the exposure to energy, wow! it says you have to take a pass on this one. i believe oil prices will stay lower longer and that's not good for the business. there are seesier ways to own money. i wish i could own the infrastructure business. that's a good business. next up, drew called about this one. it is a specialty farming company. focused on treating pain and others can he related to the central nervous system including people with nerve damage and a drug for migraines. you might remember it was in a hostile takeover bid from the now deflated veryizon takeover business. they said they were in growth mode. i thawed the deal made some sense but clearly they sold the company. since the hostile bid ask then vanishing of the bid, it has
been annihilated. it is down 44% i know what the rest. that weakness is through no fault of its own. they have continued to put up pretty solid results. last fall hillary clinton decided to make drug companies public enemy number one. that's hurt the entire industry but specially especially hot drug companies like deppomed. they announced they had taken a stake in it and they said they want to fix certain issues. we like that. for starters, they want to change the domicile from doofl delaware. come on. virtually everybody is incorporated in delaware and it may be a pretty antagonistic. where do i come down? at the end of the day it is absurdly cheap. trading, it has a 16% long term growth rate. the wholesale slaughter has
created buying opportunities and this could be one of them. last year they were willing to fork over $29.25 a share for this company. albeit in an all stock deal. and $16 and change? i think it is worth speculating on. now that they can knock some sense into it. i like a stock that's down big from its high. that inwith like. next item, kim in new mexico asked me about mygm. it is focussing on creating a molecular diagnostic tests. including breast or ovary cancer, ovary cancer, and mile op, and myeloma. myriad dominates the testing market which makes up 90% of the revenues. unfortunately, a supreme court decision a few years ago
stripped these tests of their patent protection. companies are trying to diversify in the new areas but for now you have to avoid it. the much cheaper health care stocks. luck allergen which is everybody's favorite short now. i think it is 130. wow. any way. finally back in i am a 7, in new jersey, a question about adams pharmaceuticals. i was not familiar with this. i had to do some homework. a super tiny company. also super speculative. it is for treating chronic nervous disorders. they change the delivery mechanism. companies stand to receive royalties. preparing alzheimer's drugs. it is a treatment for diskinesia
for parkinson's trials. we got some positive news about this trial. 83% in a single day. that data is being released in full tomorrow. everything else in the i'm that line is pretty clinical. super doomer early stage. i do not like pharmaor bio tech company. it is too dicey for mexico you can get a pop tomorrow. i would use any strength for the register. too risky for me. you're playing fda roulette for this one. these are hard little companies. i'm sorry i don't know them off the back of my head. better to do the homework. "mad money" is back after the break.
. >> caller: boo-ya! >> i think they're good. you can follow it. i like the did i have denied and i like it. let's go to rog in florida. >> caller: cramer! dr. roger, thank you for taking my call. buy more. >> i know that one because we did the biotech bible from the street. that's a company to me looks a little like allergen. sxeth one is giving up on it. 219. you have to short it. 19 down, 100 up. let's to go charles in new jersey. charles? >> caller: hey. >> yo. >> caller: i had a few questions. nokia. >> what the charts rrgs i said i'm determined to do two.
nokia and blackberry. i have to figure out whether they're worth $10 or $3. so let me come back. jack in massachusetts. >> caller: ionis pharmaceuticals. sell or hold? >> i feel like every time recommend it. every time recommend it i feel like i hurt people. ions has all these great drugs. i don't know. the stock is stuck. i feel like cypress sammy, fit bit and ionis are three that i ought to do a piece about and i have gotten wrong. and why i have gotten wrong. i am sorry. i feel like i've lost the ability to opine. don in virginia. don. >> caller: hi, jim. good talking to you. cie. >> no. siena and jupiter, super
negative. i'm still steamed about ionis and fit bit. and that tends could not looks of the line round! the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] ions data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. in that neighborhood, it wawhat we could afford.o get so i had set up alerts to say that if anything in this area ever comes below a certain price point. it just popped up one day and i was like, "oh my god, we have to go see it!" it's a really wonderful neighborhood, and then
to add on to that how wonderful the house is, is so cool. whatever home means to you, we'll help you find it. zillow. ♪ no, you're not ♪ yogonna watch it! ♪tch it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ ♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download...
it should be patently obvious, even something, i think the misinformation about oil that a vast majority got this whole oil minister meeting dead wrong from the outset. first production in the u.s. is dropping rather quickly now. ♪ >> we're going to be talking about a million barrels a day less than at the high. we'll drop from 9 foy 6 billion. the saudis have about 10.1 million barrels. all the others mean nothing to this debate. russia would make a pact on the saudis. they do perhaps as much as 1 million a day. they're doing so as they'll be should i go their excess oil here. remember we still import a huge. a crowd into this country.
about 9.4 million barrels a day as we import from saudi arabia. how about iran? if everything goes right, they can produce maybe 6 million more barrel per day. now logically that extra 600,000 barrels could tip the scales and maybe be a free for all that takes oil down a lot from here. but the international energy agency which absolutely by the way does terrific work says we'll be consuming 1.2 million additional barrels per day in 2016. all right. so let's do the arithmetic here. the u.s. cuts production by 1 million barrels. the saudis increase production. the iranians increase by 600,000. that leaves the world short 600,000 barrels a day hence why the price of crude wasn't totally annihilated today even though there is no production this weekend out of doha. the saudis wanted to do three things. you can write them down if you want to. the first is to keep iran from rampg up production too fast by
the prize would allow them to go full on. taking out the 10 million barrels a day rage and going to 11 million, you don't want to commit to that. it is too dicey. second goal, to prevent the u.s. from producing so much oil that saudi arabia loses margaret share. the saudis know other than in parts. basin in three counties for texas, our producers lose money if oil is under 40. that's the sweet spot. and the sour spot for the americans. saudi arabia's third goal torsion generate enough money to generate the expenses and the war against yemen. they take oil too far they won't have enough cash. we have he can will inreup. the u.s. production could drop off even more. the idea that oil can plummet through assumes that. it was just talk. the saudis, not the u.s., not russia, not iran.
they figured out demand. they know supply and they've chosen these prices. get used to them. they are mandated by the onliy the today pass toy earth. never doubt the sudden youries totally in control of the world's oil situation. stick with cramer. with almost twenty percent more base horsepower. once driven, there's no going back. real is touching a ray. amazing is moving like one.
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