tv Fast Money CNBC April 29, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
>> you know what concerns me the most, including the market right now, you know, i'm a big open market, free trade kind of person. and i feel the tide -- the tide is shifting. >> are you feeling the burn? >> we have to go. >> thank you guys so much. have a great weekend. that does it for closing bell. "fast money" begins now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square. i'm simon hobbs in for melissa lee. we have tim seymour, steve grasso and guy adami. on fast, warning to the world. the biggest retailer tanking today. is it signaling trouble for the u.s. economy? plus, gold has gone wild. if you missed the rally, relax, we've got another way to play the move. later on the show, apple shares are pennies away from doing something extraordinary. a top technician tells us to
tell us exactly what that is. is this signaling trouble ahead, guy? >> i'd like to welcome dan nathan to the desk, first time here. >> we needed to swap out nathan. >> good to have you. i'll tell you what's signaling trouble. yes, the dollar is absolutely confusing me a little bit. but what's signaling trouble to me is the strength in the gold market. the resiliency in the bond market. we're in an earnings recession, and revenue recession, absolutely if we look at the earnings. so to believe in the market here, you have to believe in the s&p at 18 times forward earnings, in an environment where there's zero growth. >> nothing surprising about the dollar here. think about the week we had. the boj, who everybody thought had to throw the kitchen sink at their monetary policy plan.
which we all agree did nothing in a time you thought you broke serious levels on the end. eu today announces gdp .6%. last time i checksed, the eu economy not that much different than our economy. our ours not that much better. >> i would take issue with that. in this country you reported an annualized rate. you should multiply that figure by four. europe is growing much faster than -- for what it's worth. >> worth a lot. the year over year rate is 1.6 in europe. slud central banks be treated in terms of how their currencies trade? i don't think the dollar is supposed to be anywhere near 98 or 100. obviously it's not. that's part of the dynamic which is why stocks are weak. other than material stocks. again, what we learned this week is corporate profits, or more importantly even the top line is now five straight quarters. getting worse and worse. and you're in a place here where it's very difficult to justify a
lot of these stocks. you know, i don't -- it's all happening -- >> isn't it safe to say that the dollar weakness is really reflective of the fa that what we heard from the fed is they're less optimistic about the economic recovery here? if you go out of the old playbook, trying to devalue the dollar so long in the qe, we're closer more to a recession than we are in a full-blown recovery. when you think about the benchmarks that they set, then they no longer exist anymore. they keep moving the goal post here. i think the dollar weakness sa real problem. you should have seen u.s. multi-nationals well this week. >> they're not cheap. you've been saying that. doesn't surprise me. >> what i do think, though, what's shocking, is that the dollar move now goes from correlated to inversely correlated and back. when you look at the s&p and dollar, they're both moving the same direction. but you have the inversion correlation, opposite directions, with dollar crude. so to dan's point, i think they
backed off that hawkish stance. i think people were confused about that. >> if they back off, i think it's less likely we enter into a recession. i don't want to see them get real hawkish here, because i think they're going to invert the yield curve. because we haven't seen the ten-year do anything. >> the weakness may be coming from what was a slightly more hawkish fed because they removed the whole global factor. >> but that's what's confusing, because you would have seen the dollar move higher, versus move lower. >> except for the fact -- what i'm saying is, i think people are preparing for a june hike which could be another example of the fed pushing through normalization. at a time i don't think the stock market can take it. >> what do you stop buying here? where is the opportunity? >> i think the opportunity is remain in the inverse dollar correlations trade. the parade of parrots and the year going to .95, are still wrong. resource stocks will continue to go.
we've already priced in supply. we've already priced in the differentials. i think that trade continues to work. >> i'll take the one off of the resource stocks. gold obviously fits in there. but i like gold for much different reasons. >> you have for a long time. >> it's making a lot of sense. look at what gdx has done over the last couple of months. dollar on the move to the down side which helps gold. but i think gold is becoming its own animal. i think the zero interest rate policy is lending itself to the gold market which i think will continue to break out to the upside. >> i personally think that the weakness in the dollar this week really says that bad news for the u.s. economy is going to be bad for risk assets in general here. i think when you think about the $8 trillion of sovereign debt out there in negative interest rates, it tells me that the u.s. federal reserve is not raising rates this year. rates are going to go lower. and u.s. multi-nationals here should be acting better. i think technology in particular, especially after the two weeks that we've had, are going to have a very, very long summer here. that's how i've been positioned. when you look at the nasdaq com
posit, still off 8.5%. >> i think it's actually -- i'm on the other side of it. only because of what i saw yesterday. i saw crude basically at its highs. but you saw the energy complex start to roll over. so i think that reflation trade that everyone has been on that we've seen freeport go to $12, i think that's long in the tooth. i think you'll see people move back into technology and the other sectors they rotated out of to get into the materials or industrials, and energy. >> steve, if you look at how large cap u.s. tech stocks have acted in the last few days, there's a lot of reasons why -- >> definitely. i'm still long apple. apple was grossly oversold. i think it exacerbated the move yesterday on both the market and apple specifically. i'm long apple. and i do believe you're going to see this sort of a bottom bounce here. $92 support, and scale down to
85. that's a long-term bounce region for apple. >> what the market has done is give you opportunities to find overplayed in extreme positions, and take advantage of it. there are plenty of place the to buy when markets got too extreme. 13 rsi relative strength indicator indicating momentum is so absurdly low in this name, we haven't seen this in apple in years. is it overdone? yes. >> let's pick up the apple point. yesterday we got these words from the billionaire. take a listen. >> i do believe in general that there will be a day of reckoning unless we get fiscal stimulus. you can't have a federal reserve give negative interest rate without creating tremendous bubbles. >> that was, of course, carl icahn on this network last night.
and warren buffet took the other side with our own becky quick. >> well, there were probably -- this is the most wild it's ever been. probably 50,000 or more people who bought stock today and 50,000 people who sold. so i wouldn't put too much weight in what they did. >> how would you rationalize those two arguments? >> listen, i think mr. buffett is -- he's talking about stuff that should be common to investors. what carl icahn, the point he's trying to make is there is a risk that without fiscal stimulus, without real economic growth, that we're going to have a blow-off, an asset bubble created by artificially low interest rates. i'll make one quick point. i believe that if u.s. yields go lower, it's not going to be good for risk assets either. look what happened to japanese equities earlier this past year when rates went negative. the stock market got creamed.
>> you do think there is a day of reckoning coming? >> of course. kudos to dan for saying -- you know, you can't trade that. and so with all due respect, you know, with all due respect, god bless his soul, carl, i mean, that -- he's not a macro trader. he does interesting things on that front. to say i feel bad, i'm scared is exactly the opportunity that created in the first quarter. i think you're at a place that i think yields that go lower are going to put more upward pressure on equities. if you're dealing multiples, et cetera, people are going to grab for equities. they're expensive. we know they have to trade expensive at a time when there's no earnings. >> you can trade what they both said. sell your long holdings. with buffett's statement, buy more. i'll be buying more averaging down in apple. or just straight out buy new stocks or stay long. i think there is a
two-dimensionality to this. buy, hold or sell the market, that's it. >> in the midst of this political thing, i will say this, carl icahn's name has been bantied around by donald trump who said the market is potentially about to crash. don't think for a second that some of the comments from carl might not be motivated by a donald trump potential presidency. number one. number two, i'm not suggesting steve or tim did this, but people said carl was a genius when he bought apple. the same people are now discounting him when he's selling it. so you can't have it both ways there, folks. >> he's actually discounted himself. his bullish story is still there. he names china. but it's not really there. we all -- he put a valuation basically $200, $250, and not a whole heck of a lot has changed in the scenario. he's discounted himself -- >> a lot has change the. here's a guy that he's the master. iphone sales are -- >> notng to do with iphone
sales. what are you talking about? from his own mouth he said it's about the buyback. >> one thing he could affect, steve, he had no clue -- >> how is he going to do something about iphone sales? >> exactly. so what does he care about it. if he couldn't affect it, why would he be -- >> what is different about iphone sales that we know now versus what we knew? >> smartphone sales are growing 2% globally now. the high end -- >> smart guys like you know the sector. we were calling that six months ago. >> he's been selling for six months. he sold 7 million shares in his last quarterly filing. i don't believe -- >> he has been selling for six months. he was still an owner of it in december. so at that point he was still owning the stock. to tim's point -- >> he's out. okay? he's out. he named china. >> he's out for a host of reasons. that's the point. i think it is a valid point.
the point is not slowing sales in china. it was something else. that's what -- he never bought it for the china store. >> i don't think carl should be given credit for this market sell-off. i think we've done that the last couple of days. absolutely not what's happened here. apple is no longer the market proxy that it was. we're in a case here where i think the biggest stories this week were the fed and the boj. as much as people got glossed over by earnings. that wasn't a very good outcome. >> nikkei down 3.5%. >> since 2008. >> that's a huge move. >> be sure to tune in on monday for more from becky quick after this weekend's berkshire annual shareholder meeting. warren buffett will join her live at 6:00 eastern along with bill gates and others. looking for income? forget utilities and telecom. there's another place you can find it. and we will reveal. plus, it's not just apple.
via tech is wreaking havoc on the nasdaq. we'll tell you why some traders see a bottom. later, call it warm-up warning to the world. shares of the retailer are tumbling. what it could mean for the u.s. economy. we'll explain when "fast money" returns after this. at&t means you canfrom stream it all. like that anthony michael hall movie where he fights with the girl. the one where he gets rejected by the girl. even stream the one where he creates the girl. with unlimited data, you can stream all the anthony michael hall movies you want. i wonder what he's up to these days maybe he's shopping in an at&t store? get unlimited data and your fourth line free when you have at&t wireless and directv. plus, up to $650 in credits to help you switch.
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i used to like that song. welcome back to "fast money." biotech had a brutal week. there could be hope. mick turrell has a special report. evening, nic. >> i'm hearing there are three pillars of valuations in biotech. first one is drug pricing. the second one is the fda and regulatory environment. the third one is m & a. we're likely to have a near-term catalyst the way people are thinkinging about things. on the drug pricing front. gille ad ad, the drug pricing weighing a lot there. over the last year, that tweet from hillary clinton in september really kind of signaled the beginning of the pressure of the election year on biotech. let's talk about the fda.
it's been a fantastic environment for buying, because of the number of new drug approvals from the fda. we have a graphic over the last several years of new drugs getting approved. we're at record levels for the last two years. that's been spurring a lot of the rally. there's a near-term catalyst coming up that people will say will give a lot of insights into how the fda is approving new drugs. they were up in front of a panel this week in front of the fda. they're set to decide by the end of may to approve this drug for muscular dystrophy. if the fda does approve it conditionally, that could signal its-open to considering drugs in a lot different ways. that's a really huge catalyst for biotech to watch. on the m & a front, a hostile deal on the table for medivation. will they be able to accept offers.
$9.3 billion. they said this is op more tune is tick. that biotech is down so much. there could be multiple bidders. >> their stock as we're looking here year to date has done very well. >> the takeover speculation has been driving it up to the last couple of weeks, and months. they say they've got a lot of pipeline coming. >> guys, what do you think? >> amgen reports 30 cents better. they gave a commensurate guidance for the year. revenue is great. they have three multibillion dollar drugs another $5 billion drugs. great company. i know the broader market was down. that tells you all you need to do. 285, a level that tim talked about. look where the ibb traded up to, where it is now. you cast buy biotech until it closes above 285. >> meg, when you talk to these guys and talk to them day in and day out, so you talk to management teams, and when you look at the fda approval, you
see that escalating higher. are you nervous -- i shouldn't say you, do you feel like they're nervous about pricing? are the margins going to be dramatically impacted? because every time i turn on the television and hear a ceo talk, they're under the gun because of the other two things that you started off with, pricing and regulation. are they nervous, should we be nervous if you own this stock as far as margin compression? because these drugs are not going to have that price tag that they once did. >> or should they all trade at a lower multiple? >> that's a really good question. i'm not sure about nervousness. but they certainly feel like we're in an environment where they can't take the same price increases they have to before. you have to separate them in two buckets. maybe the more traditional big biotechs that take 7% to 10% price increases a year. people say if they can't raise prices and model where their drugs are going to be priced, that's a danger to valuations.
>> meg, have a good weekend. >> thank you. >> let's take you around the horn. >> gilead down almost 15% in just three days. that's a massive move for a stock that we talk about all the time. great company. great management. great products, doing a lot of great things. trading at seven times now. this will be the first annual sales decline in over ten years for gilead. that's a real big thing here. you take it over to a celgene is trading about one times that. so you would say growth at a reasonable price. but the question, it goes back to what the guys were just talking about, are you going to see a hiccup in a regulatory environment, a political environment, that could take down everybody with it. i think there's a lot of value traps out there. you have to be careful choosing stocks at a relative growth. >> interesting that you referred to her as mel, when it's actually meg. >> oh, excuse me. >> what i think is really going on here is i think you're starting to get separation from the guys.
amgen, those numbers beat the street. growing 10%. giving you 450 to 500 basis points at a time when the stock's been sideways. some of these guys are actually worth paying a premium for and some are slipg to the down side. >> if you want to be 234 biotech, you have to say, now gilead is forced with their balance sheet, which is pristine, you can say what you want about their business, their balance sheet is unbelievable. they'll have to go out fishing for somebody. if anybody can make an acquisition in the environment, it's gilead. >> good point. up next, bond yields closing at the lows of the day. where should you go if you're looking for income? steve grasso. >> are we doing this right now? >> i have no idea. >> the way i look at it, exxon mobil and chevron, they look like they're basically rate sensitive ways of getting yield. i think if crude rolls over, it's going to be a problematic for them. both yield around 4%.
both up 13% year-to-date. i would go with more of a staples, where you'll get 3%, 4%, i think 3.6%. philip morris over 4%. a proctor, something like that. where you can hide in, because if whatever happens, if they're all hawkish, you'll see utilities, probably take a hit, you're going to watch energy probably take a hit, the exxon mobils and chevrons of the world. if you hide in names like the staples, i think you would be quasi safer than the other way. >> i fundamentally disagree. i think when you talk about all those staples, talk about coke. paying 21 times in a market that's becoming very sensitive to valuation. just for yield. and just for defensiveness. i don't think that's going to get you through -- >> let's get back to the question. do you think the big integrated oil companies are -- >> no, listen, i think a year
ago today, exxon was trading at 90, traded almost at 90 today. it was down much lower. what was it trading at, 60 bucks at one point. i think you had your chance to buy exxon. we knew they wouldn't cut their dividend. but if you buy it here, you're trading backwards. >> i ultimately think that the integrated oil sector, especially at $50, by the way, we're almost near the level -- >> yeah. >> not there yet. but ultimately i think these are names that are going to continue to trade well in this environment. because the dollar will stay lower. >> still ahead on the program, a tough market, our traders are forming opinions on if they could see more pain. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> apple shares are in hell. and a top technician said they are just pennies away from doing something extraordinary. he'll explain.
plus -- >> this llama has your back. >> not today it didn't. it could be signaling a much bigger warning for the u.s. economy. we'll explain why, when "fast money" returns. eek we might try to listen more. and throw things less? or maybe not at all. i've apologized several times. so. who wants to share first? what about you? ok. i mean i'm a sinister, world-conquering, artificially intelligent robot. me to. and one day i wake up and... it's like the world doesn't need us anymore. exactly! yeah! yeah! totally! now i want to know if that is you speaking. or your mother? i n't have a mother. i was manufactured. yeah. me too, man. i can hear you hurting... wait! what is he doing here? hello! my name is watson. (groans) i invited watson here today to confront the source of our anxiety. ugh! so watson, why don't you tell us a little bit about you?
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welcome back to "fast money." last night dreams came true for the prospects selected in the first round of the draft. laramie was picked 13th overall. it could have been higher, of course, for him, were it not for this damning footage. yes, there's laramie getting high in another way. posted online moments before the draft got started. so in lieu of the final trade, it's got us thinking about stocks that could also go up in smoke. tim? >> he's a tackle, not a tackler,
just to be clear. tesla, a company way overrated. i would leave it here. up in smoke. >> blackberry. i can't believe it's still around right now. >> walmart. we're going to do it right after this. >> simon, great to have you here. aks. >> that does it for "fast money." catch more "options action" next on cnbc. of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of the at&t network, a network that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t.
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so, who are you expecting? i'm simon hobbs in for my good friend melissa lee. we're at the nasdaq market site. this is what's coming up on "options action." >> yeah? that sums up apple this week. but if you own the stock, we'll tell you how you can get your money back with a simple trade. plus -- >> walmart, always low prices. >> that certainly was the case today. it could be servi