tv Fast Money CNBC September 30, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
>> crusades. when these little kids went on crusades, just groups of them. >> this is why podcasts are great. there is something that specific for everybody. truly. i love them. i encourage everybody out there, just -- do them. start them. do one of your own. guys, thank you so much. danny hughes, evan newmark on "closing bell." see you after the weekend. "fast money" begins now. deutsche smeuche surrounding the german banks subside. the dow was up more than 200 points, to close up 164 points and retrace most of yesterday's losses. the s&p closing up three quarters of a percent, much like rocky balboa, nothing can take this market down. the sa s&p basically flat on the month. europe's largest bank. can anything derail this rally, or is your best move just a bet on "rocky"? start with the guy taking a beating from rocky, our own bk. >> oh, come on.
earlier this week, everybody was getting on me because i was goldiloc goldilocks, too happy and now all of a sudden i'm taking a beating. let's just go through what happened today and why the market rallied. it's because deutsche bank possibly got some clarity on a reduction of the $14 billion fine. if it gets down to less than $5 billion, they have some clarity, might be able to raise some capital and you reverse some of the negative feedback loop. this is what i was saying earlier, you don't to be short deutsche bank because you know the government it going to try to do something. that's one you don't want to short. the rest of it, if we can get through this european bank issue, and there are still some issues out there, european banks, quarter end, but they're hoarding a lot of dollars, that's not a great sign. that could go away next week. so we do have some very big concerns out there with the european banks. here in the u.s., i think you're okay. i mean, oil seems to be all right. >> you're okay. >> okay. well, then, so -- deutsche bank, which obviously was a big driver of today's market. i actually took a flier in
deutsche bank. it's not something i normally do. but this one is -- i think it is so it turbo charged for a very big move in a very short amount of time. they have to address this very quickly. i don't know if that number is right. i don't think we've got any real clarity on that. it would certainly be a good thing if there were clarity there. but i think you'll see big events in the next few days, even. so i brought some out of the money calls, you know. i have to decide, all right, what am i willing to risk? because it is all at risk money for sure. absolutely could go to zero. so for me, ten basis points in something that i think could make, you know -- could qui quintuple to make 50 basis points. >> so some sort of resolution, something that will get the shares to move higher. >> in the near term. >> yes. back to the larger question, though, on the markets. it seems like, you know, there have been worries upon worries upon worries, and the month ended flat. >> of yeah, well, i think it's really important to remember, though, how this week went. we actually had -- there was
some trepidation about donald trump's, you know, gaining steam on hillary clinton. and i think that debate changed everything. so here we are at the end of the week. and i think we all feel a lot different about that. if you're asking what can derail the market, between now and let's say election day, it's if trump were to build a big lead again. that's just plane and simple. oh october 9th. we're all going to be watching again. if there is any -- the guy can't get out of his own way so it doesn't really seem to matter. that's the big worry and i think back to your point about goldilocks, the fed is not going on november 2nd, december 14th is in the cards, especially if clinton wins and that's when you have to start worrying about what does -- a tighter monetary policy mean for your portfolio. >> there still seems to be a little bit of a -- >> tinge? >> tinge of teflonness. of. >> did you start this show deutsche -- did you really say? >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> rewind it. >> four years of college for that. >> my upbringing in great neck is what it was. >> i hear what karen said, i get
it. could go to 115 without question. this deutsche move didn't start when this fine from the u.s. government took hold, right? this started two-and-a-half years ago when it was the $55 stock at the beginning of 2014. this has been a slow burn to the down side for quite some time. so there are clearly other issues going on with deutsche bank. with that said, is it a rocky balboa, you can't keep it down. we have talked about it. again, i'm not some raging bull by any stretch of the imagination. one thing we have said, as long as s&p can hold that 2135 level, it's okay. you still need the russel to get above 129. it's not there yet, but the stars are aligning. >> every mainly indices within 1%. right? you just don't need them to go down too much in too sharp a fashion. so you ask me, what do you do? if you're long, you just stay long. smooth and twos. that's what works. as bad as deutsche bank gets, the s&p still works.
also to keep owning treasuries for the time being. look where the tlt is. it doesn't budge. stuck here at 138. people thought it was the short of the century before the fed was going to go in september. >> is the risks are rising rates, maybe that happens in december, maybe we get some inflation spook or the european bank crisis gets worse. it looks like they put a little tourniquet on it today. what. >> do you buy in the meantime, mr. goldilocks? >> you could buy some gold. i would buy oil too. oil wants to make a nice run higher. >> you took a fly on deutsche. catch your eye? >> here's the thing. i know dan is probably going to take issue with this. i don't think the raise by the fed last december is what ended up having the market just fall apart shortly after that. we knew going into that raise, the likelihood they were going to raise was extremely high. right? way higher than it is now. and the market responded sort of -- so-so for a couple of
weeks. >> you know why. it's the calendar. it was really the calendar, right? that's what we have to think about. you really don't buy that? >> i don't buy it. >> no one gets paid much any more. so just mark -- look how we closed the quarter. let's close the year. everyone thought this was going to be a really bad year for u.s. stocks, right? look where we are. we're up on the year, all-time highs. i think if we have a hillary clinton win, i think fine, telegraph a 25 basis point raise in december 14th. i think the markets will be okay with it. and then it gets back to these external things. is it a european banking crisis just rolling? is it something that -- rears its ugly head in china? the stock market doesn't move, but we keep hearing about a real estate bubble. that sort of stuff. so ultimately, that's where our troubles are going to come from in our stock market. >> i agree with that. i don't think it comes from the -- >> one point, quickly, mel. last year when they raised for the first time in nine years, they were also fed fund futures pricing 1% of fed funds by this time already. and that hasn't happened. and that's the big difference, and that's why i think right now the rate of change is actually
much less than it was a year ago at this point. at least the expectation for rate increases. >> for a guy who lifts a lot of different "ifs" and "worries," et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, he is fairly positive. stay the long the market. despite hillary, despite the fed, despite that. >> beaten. >> what does that mean? >> i've goggled schmooze and 2s. >> just buy the s&ps and the 2s, treasuries. >> this is the one thing. if the market needs extraordinary actions from central banks to continue to go higher, then you have to ask yourself, what's really going on in these underlying economies? and what -- when does it matter? and i think we're closer to it mattering than we have been in quite some time. again, not to suggest the market can't continue high e but at some point, somebody is going to wake up and say, you know what, maybe that emperor doesn't have any clothes on. remember that story, mel? you might have learned that when
you were in middle school. >> you're probably going to see the economy weaken a lot more and it very well could. again, i've been thinking we were headed towards a recession sometime this year. may have been postponed. but still, the data is not really getting that much better. we had a good chicago pmi number today. but the bigger data -- not getting that much better. so that could be something as we go forward that would spook this market. >> is it the -- we had jeffrey gundlach on last week and he said in his call on september 8, the fed wants to get themselves away from what the market expectations are. and the big risk in my mind, they start raising into a weakening economy and they kind of make the likelihood of recession that much greater. of. >> right. next, forget about deutsche bank for a second, because a different group of stocks could be flashing a big buy sign for the market. why some traders are so excited. and congress took it to wells fargo. ceo john stumpf this week. there is something in the charts that suggests now could be a good time to buy. of we'll show you what we're talking about. and later, tech is on fire, logging its best quarter since 2014. but if you missed the move,
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welcome back to "fast money." a stunning day for newtannics today, surging to i think 131% here. clocking the best ipo day of the year. for more the first day of trade and color, over to josh lipton in san francisco. hey, josh. well, melissa, a lot of people here in silicon valley closely watching this debut. and they have to be impressed by what they saw. as you point out investors piled into this name appearing very confident that nutanix can disrupt traditional i.t., founded serve years ago, its technology combines computing, storage and net working into a single product. revenue jumped more than 80% in the past year to $445 million. nutanix is only the fifth venture-backed ipo for a u.s. tech company this year, but given the warm welcome that investors have now given to nutanix, up more than 300% since it ipoed in june, they except
more startups to make public debuts. >> you've got probably over 100 companies on file either publicly or in confidential registration. and there are some very good companies in there. obviously many companies we have locked at as investors. and i think you're going to see some fairly healthy names come out and hit wall street in q 4 and q 1. >> one reason why this ipo so closely, it does share characteristics with many startups. it also burns through a lot of cash. so you have to imagine that many founders out here were watching the reaction to nutanix and liked what they saw. melissa, back to you. >> thank you, josh lipton. is this debut a sign the markets are healthier than we think? >> let me take a crack. >> all-time highs. how could they be worse? it's fantastic -- right? healthier. >> i don't agree, actually. if you have fundamentals that
are strong, then to have a higher price than -- >> fundamental strong -- >> healthy right now? >> i don't think the market is healthy right now. >> right. so i don't -- >> or evidence the markets are healthy and can sustain the 1%. >> if i look at my main page with the tickers i look at and the last year-and-a-half, i've had, like, dozens of tickers that have gone away. you know why? because m & a, right? so when you think about that, i think there is the certain health aspect of it. i think it's great. i think investors, especially in technology, are looking for growth. when you have a new, young company like this that has that sort of growth, it's great. they pile in. important to note, what happened to trulio, down 6%. the charts went like this as the other wept kind of keep going. a year from now, we may think less so. we see bubbles pop, remember 3-d printing and internet security. >> i don't think it speaks to the health of the broader market but people looking for
opportunities. i mean, that's really what it comes down -- we talked about caterpillar yesterday, why do you think caterpillar is higher and i think we gave a logical explanation. they say they price -- karen can speak better than me. but when a stock is up 130% -- >> of that's a lot of money. >> the bankers will say yes. seems leak you left some on the table. >> yeah, i agree. it's better to get a deal done, they probably only sold -- i forget exactly how much, a tiny portion so they mispriced that section. this is good for the investment banks. if they get a good pipeline of equity offerings, those are great trading vehicles, good fees. that would be good. >> this isn't a one-off either. we've had a few recently that have traded well. >> you know the one is the one that dan mentioned, the one i watch every day, and it's twilio and i see it up $3, $4, $5 and bk didn't buy it, missed it all the way up. coming back now -- probably going to attack a while. you have to let it digest a bit.
i would keep an eye on. >> both these companies combine $10 billion in market cap. just think in 2017 if we get airbnb, uber, snapchat, those are the big ones. those are ones where you have to rethink about your google holding, your amazon holding. of because they have appreciated so much. >> atm -- >> could be. we saw that when allibaba came. >> a big bullish call on the security stocks. amazon coach, macy's, nike and nordstrom, saying the consumer is on solid ground and benefitting from low employment, wage gains, low energy prices and a stable housing market. the firm also saying they expect to see continued market share gains in the discount retailer, such as tj maxx and ross stores. karen, what do you think of this call? >> i like the call. that's a broad bunch to put into one basket. amazon i don't view as a retailer. i don't know what to think of it as.
yeah, this is as good a consumer as you hope. employed, low gas prices. stable housing prices. you know, low mortgages. this is about as good as you can hope for. and i think these stocks don't reflect it. >> right. it's almost like the auto stocks. >> it is. >> like low -- >> sharing retail economy would be a terrible thing for some of these. that's what's happening, i think, to the gms of the world. but i like -- you know, i'm long, i'm on foot locker, i'm long coors had an awful week. but i think the risk/reward is attractive. >> since i'm long oil, it's hard for me to get too excited about the consumer because my bet is gas prices going higher. and, again, what karen said, this is a really broad range. i would rather go with some of the beaten down ones. >> the beaten down retailers. >> beaten down retailers. >> macy's -- the ones the news has come out of. >> as long as it holds 51.5, the
low at the end of the june, here's a stock that's maybe worth a trade. so you look at where it traded i think yesterday, down to 52. all right, close. bounced today, not a great bounce, but if you look for risk/reward, nike might get you done. still think mastercard and visa, the best way to play the consumer. but if you look for an interesting trade, nike 51.5. >> i'll say this. and i know this may sound a little goofy but apple has this new phone, have you seen t the i phone 7? and it's really expensive. i think at some point if these numbers are really, you know, accurate, it could take a real big bite out of back to school, out of some of this other apparel sort of section. it could. i'm not telling you it happened -- >> can be not bullish apple and not bullish retailers? >> what i'm saying is that the way people are buying i phones is very different than they used to. okay? and now that there is a lot more people ponying up the way you would a laptop or something like that. and so i'm just saying, i think it has the potential to take a
bill hit out of apparel. >> is that -- >> this is the iphone 7, you can put it in water. >> let's do it. >> no -- >> can you put it in latte, as well? >> about the only thing that's changed. still ahead, more gains ahead in the fourth. we'll explain why and how you can profit next. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. wells fargo shares have gotten crushed, but there is something in the charts that suggests now might be the time to buy. we'll explain. plus, tech just posted its best quarter in two years. ♪ but if you missed the rally, there is one name traders see breaking out in the fourth quarter. we'll tell you what it is and how you can profit. when "fast money" returns. what's the value of capital? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers)
welcome back to "fast money." the s&p 500 is now up 6% on the year, heading into the fourth quarter. so are there even more gains ahead? seema mody has the details in the news room. >> stocks closing the third quarter higher with a gain around 4%. this despite stress in the banking sector with wells fargo and deutsche bank's financial woes in focus. looking forward to q4, you'll see the s&p is up 80% of the time with an average return of almost 5% over the last 20 years. that's according to our data partner, kensho so the rally could continue. discretionary stocks up 80% of the time with an average return of almost 6%. health care, financials also tend to do well. and if you thought the rally in tech was over, think again. kensho shows a gain of 6%, which would be significant, given the 12% rise we saw in the third quarter. google, facebook, amazon, also
sporting double digit gains the last three quarters. and while q4 is positive for equities, not the same story for commodities. oil negative 60% of the time in the fourth quarter on average, losing 8%. of course, all eyes on the upcoming opec summit in november. melissa. >> all right, seema mody, thank you very much. so there's a lot to pick from in terms of sectors expected to rise in the fourth quarter. interestingly, these are sectors that have been under pressure so far. health care, financials, except for tech. health care and financials and consumer discretionary. >> health care is continuing, because it the rhetoric -- political rhetoric dies down, i think people will find health care once again on valuation. i still think the ibb is interesting, right around this 285 level. if you force me to be with kensho -- >> i'm not forcing you -- >> sorry. >> there is no game -- forcing -- >> just the c block of the show. >> just a discussion.
but go ahead. if you want to be with kenshow, you would be. >> i would be long. >> if you had to be with -- >> you know what, i don't want to be with kensho. i want to go against kencho on the oil. we have a major change in the oil market. i'm long oil so my money is where my mouth is. >> consumer discretionary up 85% of the time. >> i like that. >> seasonal, obviously. >> right. even though people should know that going into -- it's seasonal. but -- >> what about my big apple call with the consumer discretionary? >> your big apple call -- you take sales from everybody else -- >> i just don't -- u.s. consumer is hot as consumer sentiment number we saw earlier this week. and we saw it in appliances, we see it in autos and a lot of things. so i think there is a chance. and if apple had a few billion dollars more in sales, that's going to come out of some of your apparel. >> but you're not long apple. >> no, i actually have a put position in the xrt. >> what is this game?
>> it's not a game. >> he's not saying apple sales are going to be great. he's just saying if they are -- if there is -- >> if they're decent. >> it's a zero sum game. >> expectations got much higher for the holiday season. >> zero sum game. >> and karen is saying it's not. >> i don't believe -- >> that's what makes a market. >> are you going to tell junior he can't have his presents come the holidays because he bought an iphone? >> who is junior. >> poor kids. all right. today is a very important day here. of we are saying farewell to a long-time member of the "fast money" team. she's part of the "fast money" family. courtney gartman. >> yay! >> leaving cnbc. to go on to green pastures, wcnc in charlotte. we will miss courtneydarily. >> very much. >> you're looking at the brains of the operation. >> oh-oh. >> she's the one that keeps things going. >> we're in trouble on monday. let's shoot to another
important event. major seasonal -- celestial event happening tonight. a rare black moon is on the horizon. so in lieu of the final trade, let's go around the horn for some of the out of the world stock picks that are going to head higher. moon shot, if you will. bk. >> i'm picking one actually already in the stratosphere, so much unusual for bk, but i like it. it's cme and the reason i like it, you're going to see a fair amount of volatility coming up and the currencies commodities area and cme trades all of those. >> chairwoman. >> yes, this is the blowup from the other day. intracellular. >> oh! >> i know. >> long intracellular. >> what i thought -- i really thought this wasn't moonrising. i thought it was moon shot, like -- you know. really -- >> like google moonshine. >> at first i thought spacex, but that's not public. >> all right. intracellular. >> real quickly, mine is chipotle. i'm starting to kick the tires. the stock traded -- i think you
hey there. did anything happen in the markets today? a wild day, a wild week, a wild quarter comes to an end. our guys are going to make some sense of it all getting ready for the show. of here's what's coming up. >> your bank. you, ceo, chairman, violent -- basically for me, on top of what's basically been a criminal enterprise. >> talk about criminal. we have a way to buy shares of wells fargo for under 2 bucks. we'll explain. plus, worried about deutsche bank? >> now is the time! >> we have a trade that can make money if the market goes up or down. we'll show you how to profit. and -- ♪ come on baby