tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 21, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST
i'm wilfred frost alongside courtney reagan. >> good morning to you. music selections? american music award winners. this is selena gomez, who i am told won for the year. >> we'll update you on who won the awards later. we'll check in on the global markets. of course, last week we had a continuation of that post-election rally we saw. the s&p was the best performer up just shy a couple percent. the dow, the relative lagger, just in positive territory. we also saw bond yields rise and saw the dollar rise. so the same sort of themes since the election, albeit the sector performance was different from week one. telecom was the best sector. health care was the worst. the dow is up just slightly by 21 points in the early market. we did see yields rise across the yield curve.
we are at highs pretty much since the start of the year, december to the long end of the curve and january highs for the shorter end of the curve, if that's the ten-year note at 2.31 at the moment. so we're just off those highs today, but still above the 2.31% for the ten-year note. here's a look at what is going on around the world, our friends in europe are seeing a mixed market. although now it looks mostly down. teresa may is currently speaking. of course, the new british leader there, you can see that the italy ftse is the underperformer down a percent this morning. and the story continues as wilfred was mentioning the strong dollar, taking a touch of a breather today on the markets. and a lot of political news out of europe as well. we can take a look at what is going on in asia, pretty mixed picture over there as well. again, the dollar taking a breather, getting just a little bit of a help for the asian
markets. japan's nikkei is up .75%. the hang seng is basically flat and the shanghai comp is higher a bit as well. >> we'll have a full round-up of the european political stories in a emt mmoment. oil prices last week did suffer to the tune -- no, they were up, my apologies, for the week they were up 5%. and another percent today. opec news is driving that. that's less related to the election than other asset classes. so decent week last week and we are up this morning at 46.15 wti. we'll look at the dollar, the dollar having surged last week up 2.3% for the week as a whole. we are at a 14-year high on friday. the highest level since april 7, 2003. but today just reversing some of the recent gains. you can see the euro is up half a percent against the yen. we've got a little bit of dollar weakness that is pretty much flat against the pound. the margin is giving up the
recent gains just over 1%. right now they are bouncing back a bit, but the dollar has been soft since the trump victory. maybe a holiday shortened week here in the u.s., but it is not short on data. it is all packed into two days before thanksgiving. tomorrow look for october existing home sales. on wednesday weekly jobless claims, durable goods and new home sales, consumer sentiment and the last month's fed meeting. the market is open for a half day on friday. and there are a handful of earnings reports. look for results from campbell's soup and hewlett-packard. and unexpected outcome in the french first primary race ahead of next year's general election. former president nicolas sarkozy is out. he was expected to come in second or third. he came in third. france's first ever republican primary, former prime minister francois fillon was the winner.
that was a surprise. now two of them go into the primary next week. the winner will likely face the leader of the far right national front, marine le pen. you can catch the conversation with marine le pen on "squawk box" at 7:00 a.m. eastern. this is going to be the center-rig center-right's party. this doesn't increase the chance for marine le pen but another poll didn't get it right. just a little rep minder not to to focus on the polls. >> the poll business is right for disruption. i'm feeling like someone needs to come in to make this better. okay. in other political news out of europe today, we are not done yet. german's chancellor angela merkel announces she's run for a
fourth term in office. she told a democratic christian union she expect this is to be her toughest campaign to date. general elections are expected in germany next year. she has a little bit of time. and british prime minister teresa may is speaking and will tell the growth she wants to cut corporate taxes to the lowest among the 20 largest economies, cutting the rate from 20% away from other parts of the eu, including at the low tax area. i think it is also worth pointing out on the european political front, courtney, the final sets of polls are coming out in italy ahead of the december 4th referendum that do suggest the incumbent matteo renzi is going to lose the referendum. that is not a referendum on anything european related. it is on constitutional reform within italy, but he said he would resign if he loses. and it's looking, based on polls -- >> let's wait until we have the result. >> that's another big factor to focus on over the weekend, in
fact more so than any of the other movements in terms of who will be in the elections next year, because it's the one that is very soon. >> fair enough. we'll pay attention to see what happens there. in global news, president obama meeting with leaders of asia-pacific nations at an economic summit in peru this weekend. the nations discussed new free trade options following president-elect donald trump's promises to scrap or renegotiate chinese deals. they are looking to join a china-led trade iing bloc. he also had a four-minute chat be russian president vladimir putin. four minutes. and wells fargo is facing tighter controls after a bank regulator lender must seek prior approval before naming new leadership. the office of the control of the currency also reversed the early position allowing it to potenti potentially give backpay to
wells fargo regulators. they are releasing some of the relief they allowed wells fargo in the initial decision, just deciding we need to be a bit more stringent on the decision. the ceo released the memo to his staff saying it's not based on new findings they have or any particular issue that has been uncovered later, but they are going to be more string gent. >> making them an example, perhaps? >> yeah. and i think it speaks to the criticism that the occ has for not being more stringent in the first place and maybe they are trying to get out in front of further criticism they might find. interesting. stocks to watch today, symantec is buying lifelock for $2.3 billion. at $24 a share, that's a 16% premium to friday's closing price. lifelock has more than 4 million subscribers. australia's boral to strike a deal with headwaters for $1.8
billion. it will they $24.25 a share, that's a 34% premium to headwaters' price the last month. and novartis is buying selexys pharmaceuticals for $665 million. it will expand the pipeline of medicines to fight blood diseases. and stocks to watch, aig is moving into residential loans. the financial times reports that they plan to make direct investments in mortgages to give more financial backing to the $2 trillion market as banks pull back since the financial crisis. the shares are flat there. and blackstone is in talks with anbang. this would be japan's biggest deal this year. and bp unit wins $559
exchange." we are fractionally up after slight gains and slight losses in europe. here in the states last week, we saw gains once again and a continuation of the post-election rally. we saw the s&p up 2%. the nasdaq up 1.5. and the dow was up a quarter of a percent. we are slightly higher this morning for the dow about 17 points. we saw wti gain about 5% last week. this comes on the hope that at the end of the month opec will carry through and cut supply. more news of that over the weekend, which is why wti is supported once again to the tune of 1.6%. $46.40 this morning. thank you, wilfred. in retail news walmart will start to offer cyber monday deals two days earlier than normal this year. they are the latest retailer to offer web promotions over the thanksgiving weekend. walmart plans to boost the online inventory for black friday by more than half this
year. so joining us now to talk about all of that and much more, retail analyst ike borshow is here with us. thank you for getting up with us, because we know this is a really big week for retail, but we have also just come off two pretty big weeks with the earnings reports. so i guess my question to you coming off of that walmart information, all a lot of the retailers are putting the deals online early. is that pulling sales forward? and what does that tell you about going into this week? >> yeah, look, i think the issue is that we are coming off q3, we have a few guys left, but we have another less than stellar quarter just reported. the two things that stuck out in most people's reports is that most of the vendors and brands talked down the q4 business telling you that the department stores and the mass channel are buying more conservatively than last year, which is not a great thing. on top of that, anyone who gave us quarter to date or november commentary, it wasn't that
bullish either. so i think, we have seen a few companies start to give us earlier black friday promotions. black friday is now black week, for the most part. so it's kind of extended to be bigger and bigger. so i think you are going to see that traffic driving coming in. i think the one thing that is a good thing is that i had to put a coat on to come into the office, so it is a little bit colder. and that is really what the guys need, kind of a cold snap to get you that traffic back into the stores and it couldn't come at a better time. >> when it wasn't so cold last year, that was a really big problem for inventories which were much higher than this year that you just mentioned. so it seems like retailers are pulling the inventories down, which we hope would actually protect margins if they don't have to sell the goods at such an extreme discount. but it sounds like you're seeing that as a sign of not buying as much from the vendors, so a little more bearish. >> especially a couple weeks ago everything was extremely unseasonably warm at a time when
we had been talking about the retail industry for six to nine months to be colder. so i think that was some muscle memory from last year of people getting too much inventory was the you are shoe. and look, the last time we did this with a cold winter, you didn't see quite as robust top line as you might have hoped, but much better than expected margins. to your point, the inventories will stay lean, so the inventory to markets is not as good, even if you don't get as robust a top line as you would have. >> people are talking about the impact the election had on consumer spending. have people held back spending, and is now going to get deployed heading into the holiday season? >> i think it is hard to tell if it's the election per se combined with unseasonable weather, heading into the holiday, people delaying the purchases more and more up to the point, you know, of the black friday event, for example. so altogether for sure.
it definitely had a negative impact, because november, for the first couple of weeks, was off to a good start. so again, we're going to cross our fingers and hope that things start to improve from here, but yeah, it's been a mixed november. >> what are your best picks for the holiday season looking at what we know now going into the bulk of the year? >> tjx, raw stores, we continue to get reports that this is the space you want to be in the environment. and that started 12 to 18 months ago. we have buys on ross and tj that have reported. and also on burlington. we have buys on all the prices so you can see where we are putting our money. two of the names interesting for holiday, coach is seeing a turnaround strategy work for two-and-a-half to three years. they are starting to take market share and all the investments they are making to build their brand up are working. i also think a sleeper could be hanes brands. this is a company that stock has not worked for 18 months, but they are getting back to the
core. introducing some new innovation platforms of building that business, managing their inventory more tightly, and they are laughing and really bad compared to last year. so they will start to grow organically and is one of the cheapest in our space and one of the best brands. >> very interesting. so we actually have tjx and burlington both closed on thanksgiving again this year. they are not playing that game. coach trying to be less promotional. we'll see how it works out. thank you so much for joining us, ike. thank you for getting up early with us. still to come on "worldwide exchange," the trump transition. the president-elect meeting with a long list of advisers over the weekend. we'll round up the names you need to know coming up. first heading to break, here's today's national forecast from the weather channel's kelly cass. >> good morning, courtney and wilfred. we are still dealing with the lake-effect snow across the interior sections of new york state.
adirondacks, we are seeing less than two feet of snow. the moisture in the southeast, it is still dry. we have a smoky atmosphere over eastern tennessee with all the wildfires burning. and unfortunately no rain in sight. it will be a nice day in dallas, 72 degrees. chicago is looking good at 40 degrees. not expecting airport delays on the monday before thanksgiving. and we do have a system moving out of the west coast and into the interior sections of the west. and that is going to cause problems eventually for the middle of the country, but we'll see temperatures that are still pretty close to average for a lot of spots. we'll be right back. rtfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com
good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are calling the futures marginally hirer with a number of hours to go. the dow could be higher by 33 points. the s&p 500 up by 5.5. and the nasdaq up by 11. we had a strong week last week even though things did end down for the day on friday for the three major indices. still very close to those all-time highs. it's been quite a couple weeks in the markets after that election result. if we can take a look at what is going on in the currency markets around the world, the dollar is still on a very strong run. however, today does look like the euro has pulled back or started to gain a little bit against the dollar, but remember the run that we have had there, the yen here relatively flat
against the dollar. and the pound is weaker against the dollar as well. we have comments from a number of world leaders including teresa may talking about corporate tax policy hoping to be potentially one of the lowest in the g20. we'll see if that happens. then oil is higher by 1.5% last we checked and still sitting there for wti. around the $46 a barrel mark. we have comments out of putin potentially giving some more credence to what opec could do with that. we'll talk about that coming up. but we have a decent amount of support in the market for the price of oil. yes, indeed. in sticking within that sector, protesters are clash iing as hundreds of demonstrators gathered on highway 186 just
north of the pipeline. protesters were sprayed with firelines as many of them started fires. and we are joined now by tracie potts with the latest on the trump transition. hey, tracie. >> reporter: hey, good morning. a lot of people came through trump's golf course where he was holding interviews over the weekend. that process will continue at trump tower today. weather president-elect trump met with several possible
members of his cabinet over the weekend. >> he's a very talented man. >> reporter: chris cobach has been called in. and retired general james mattis seems to be a favorite for secretary of defense. reince priebus tweeted that mattis was impressive. and billionaire wilber ross is being considered for commerce secretary. the new administration has to deal with democrats in congress. >> we could get a major infrastructure bill done, b butmaybe in the first 100 days. >> reporter: and securing the cabinet continues today. texas governor rick perry is coming in today being considered for three possible positions, secretary of defense, secretary of energy or veterans affairs.
>> tracie potts live for us in washington. queen elizabeth plans to invite president-elect donald trump for a state visit to britain next year to reinforce the close ties between the two countries. "the sunday times" reports discussions between british officials and trump's will start in june or july. the prime minister says trump invited teresa may to visit him as soon as possible. >> i hope buckingham palace is worthy of a presidential visit. did you see that they have to refurbish it at the cost of $350 million pounds. it's not cheap when you have to do home improvements. >> i wonder if they will do a gold leaf. >> there's already a lot of gold leaf across the palate. so i am sure that he'll enjoy the visit if that comes together. it is interesting teresa may has not visited yet. i'm surprised, if that is true, sort of posturing from both sides to make it look like we are on top of the list, even if we have not been there. we'll have to wait and see. a magical weekend at the movies as the "harry potter"
spinoff dominated the discussion. "fantastic beasts" took a top $75 million in the u.s. and cana canada. it has yet to open in china. a secret group of wizards is in 1920s new york. i'm getting closer to wanting to see this now because it has come out. >> i mean, what is the harm? you might love it. >> i might. >> you should give it a chance. >> there we go. well, coming up, oil prices are rising this morning, we'll get more insight from helima croft of rbc capital market. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.
good morning. wall street is kicking off a holiday shortened week. >> and details on the opec output will be released ahead. and the american music awards, we'll tell you who won coming up. a very good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost along with courtney reagan. welcome again. >> i actually know the song and feel like pop culture this morning. >> there we go. we'll run through the winners later in this half hour. but for now, let's check in on
the global markets this morning. futures are called higher albeit just slightly up 20 points for the dow half an hour ago. right now we are up a little more than that. 34 points. but still small in the grand scheme of things, 6 points for the s&p. the nasdaq 14 to 15 points. the dow was the lagger last week. the nasdaq up 1.5%. the best performer was telecom. european trade has just turned positive in the last half hour or so. we were losing a bit of steam and now we're quite nicely up half a percent for the french market. the german market is up .40%. they do suggest pressure against matteo renzi, the incumbent prime minister. that's one italy is down .60%.
the nikkei was up 0.8%. the yen had been weaker but just rebounded. the nikkei closed before the rebound occurred, so we're looking at gains of 1% for japan. and as for the broader markets, oil prices are getting some support today up about 1.5% there at 46.36. brent also higher as well by a little bit more than what we're seeing in the pump up of the price of crude. we have brent higher by 1.6% at 47.59. a number of headlines moving the price of oil. we'll get to those in a second, but we'll have helena croft join us. we're seeing the dollar being very supportive of yields on the treasuries. we are a little bit higher for the ten-year. we are up 2.36% on friday. that yield has been pulled back down.
>> we did see yields rise across the board last week and saw the dollar with it rise. the broader index was at a high since 2003 at one point last week. it is, in fact, giving up a bit of the gains this morning as you can see. the euro slightly higher, 1.0627. but the dollar is significantly higher. gold prices are rounding off the markets, gold has been soft since the election victory. it's bouncing back a bit today. it could be a holiday shortened week, but that doesn't mean it's a shorter week in terms of the data we're getting. it's all packed into two days before thanksgiving. tomorrow we get october existing home sales and on wednesday weekly jobless claims of durable goods, new home sales and the final read on consumer sentiment and the minutes from last month's fed meeting. the markets open for a half day on friday. just a handful of earnings reports from campbell's soup and
hewlett packward. and back to the oil prices that gained 5% last week. we are joined now by helena croft. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me on. >> opec-related people are believing we are going to get something -- >> it's back and forth at opec. there was so much skepticism and people were fighting and couldn't work out a cut. but iran came out over the weekend to say we're in favor of this. the iraqis were holding out to say, we don't want to get this done. but vladimir putin once again weighed in saying russia will cooperate. so the tea leaves are lining up for some type of agreement come november 30th. >> we have had big factors driving other markets up in the last two weeks in terms of the election. has that had an impact on oil as
well? there are some correlations between the harder commodities getting infrastructure-related boosts. >> we saw the infrastructure boosts more on copper. initially there was some bearishness in oil saying, donald trump is going to allow a drilling everywhere in the u.s. is that bearish for the supply situation? there are differences between the copper rally and what we're seeing on oil. we have to wait to see because iran could be a big issue in terms of donald trump. if they reinstate sanctions, that could be bearish for oil. but i don't think that will be on investor minds right now. >> how do investors sort through all the headlines when it comes to what could or could not happen with opec? one day we believe them, one day we don't. why are we putting faith in vladimir putin right now? >> i think it is so much of what drove the crash of 2014 where opec said we're not going to defend any price for oil. and saudi arabia was saying the u.s. shell producer, we'll put you out of business. that's how the market read it. so now for the saudis to be like, we have our own fiscal
needs to be concerned about. maybe we can take a pause on market share. i think investors think that is a significant story, because again it looks like a 180 from what the saudis have been doing throughout 2013 and 2015. >> when we talk about the other commodities, they could be a leading indicator for u.s. equity markets in relation to trump rallies and pull-backs. quite shock in a pull-back for the early part of last week, where is your thinking on that in relation to infrastructure spending? >> we do have to see the infrastructure spending. copper has been a china story. and now it's becoming a u.s. story. so we really have to see, is the republican party going to get behind infrastructure spending in a way they were not behind it with the democrats in office? a lot will be how much they can really deliver on the big mega projects. that will be sort of the future uplift for copper. >> and in terms of the trump administration's energy policy, what do you think we may or may not see in terms of the rhetoric in the election campaign,
supporting the coal industry versus the reality that it comes to? >> when you look at coal, the coal industry was big and gave them a lot of support, but the question was, was coal for the put out of business for regulation or because of cheap natural gas prices? and you can take the regulatory pressure off coal, but as long as you have fracking continuing, unless you have cheap natural gas, it's going to be hard to revive the coal industry. >> and there's a lot of protests obviously going on around the south dakota pipeline and it's beginning to get a little louder, at least from what we're seeing in the headlines. what impact is that going to happen v? >> i think for donald trump it will be big on infrastructure spending. he's talking about things like keystone xl. so i don't think the protesters will get a comfort in the trump administration. and the climate change will not be clear first and foremost. look at the comp 21 commitments. is it going to remain significant to that deal?
and you can see the u.s. pulling back on fuel standards, cafe standards. so that could be supportive for oil demand, but i don't think climate change is going to be a big issue for this administration. >> helina, great stuff. thank you for joining us this morning. helina croft from rbc markets. and we're taking a look at the consumer staples market. landon dowdy is here with more. >> reporter: good morning. that's right. consumer staples have taken a turn for the worst in the second half of 2016 following the outperformance earlier this year. the sector is down marginally compared to the overall s&p 500 up 7% year to date. why staples tend to underperform during periods of rate increases, there are good spots. gugen i'm gugenheim says they have been growing in ways other sectors haven't. so sysco and tyson are up 30%.
sysco posting a 10% increase in the earnings report. and archer midland up 18%. who are the losers year to date? beauty products company coty taking 26%. investor concerns over recently spending in brands. and kroeger is down on severe food inflation over ten straight months. back over to you. and alec baldwin returned to "saturday night live" to play donald trump for the first time since the election. >> big plan. big plan. google, what is isis? >> baldwin's trump scrapped
plans for immigration and decides to keep obamacare. donald trump was not amused tweeting, i watched part of "saturday night live" last night, it's a totally one-sided, biased show, nothing funny at all. equal time for us? >> he's criticizing why he doesn't criticize anyone else. baldwin said, the election is over, we can be very one-sided now. >> we don't have to talk about hillary because she's sort of doing her own thing or whatever she's going to do. >> mr. trump has to get used to it now that he's president. >> it's all part of the game. this is what he signed up for. >> and i wonder if alec baldwin will sign on for a full-time job. it is not just for the election, clearly. >> i was thinking the same thing. he's too good. you can't let him stop now. >> it's uncanny. music's biggest stars joined for the 2016 american music awards. the big winners, a rianna grande took home artist of the year, drake and rihanna also won
artists. and selena gomez won for favorite female artist. the american music awards are voted on exclusively by fans. so those are some of the highlights for the unlikely people who stayed up last night, they probably aren't up with us this morning. and the most hackable holiday gifts are laptops, electronic devices and drones. 42% said they take proper security measures. i am in that camp as well. >> you have to change your password all the time and it's such a pain. coming up, today's must-reads. first heading to break, we check out the european markets at this hour. they have changed course here just recently, but stay tuned, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.
is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing) welcome back. time for the must reads, the financial times, italy's referendum holds the key to the future of the euro. he says after the brexit and donald trump, prepare for the
return of the eurozone crisis. if italian prime minister matteo renzi loses on december 4th, it could raise questions on italy's participation in the eurozone. this is a bleak outlook running through why if italy loses this referendum, sorry, if renzi loses the referendum, it could spark a series of events to lead to the full break-up of the eurozone. it peaks to the interest on how serious this could be. he does say that his central expectation is not a collapse of the eu and the euro but a departure of one or more countries like italy. so just really focusing on how serious this referendum can be. it's on constitutional reform, not on the membership of the eu. if renzi sparks it and an election, he's got a lot of problems. all three of the next biggest parties in italy after renzi's incumbent party highlights the issue of why they don't want to face the election. >> so many changes could be
happening in the world and europe specifically, it's pretty incredible. >> december 4th is the next event risk. so my must-read piece is in "the new york times" entitled, "donald trump and the bieber doctrin doctrine," as in justin bieber. he talks about how the region may no longer be a top concern for u.s., when it comes to security, at least. he writes, go and love yourself, it's a bieber song, of course. and it's mr. trump's message to his european allies. the message of the european allies is no longer the objective of american foreign policy. there you go. my story ties into yours a bit, saying europe, that's your problem. we have our own thing to work on, but really the eurozone is a big question now. >> a big question, and the fact that the next u.s. administration, whether it's not actively for european breakup, it is clearly not actively for
supporting further european integration. that's a big concern for the european leaders and one of the big reasons angela merkel committed to standing for a fourth term. it's felt that she has to be there to try to hold together the continuation of the eu and the liberal positions, even though her opinion falls and she feels like she has to do that coming up. a lot of pressure, no doubt about it. >> that is just a small job she might have on her shoulders. >> absolutely. coming up, no shortage of market movers this holiday shortened week. we'll get more thoughts on the market from john manley coming up next. stay tuned, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. cathy's gotten used to the smell of lingering garbage... ...in her kitchen yup, she's gone noseblind. she thinks it smells fine, but her guests smell this. ding, flies, meow
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we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. welcome back. the u.s. market is fractionally higher. we have been hovering around these levels the last hour or so, and this comes off gains in europe. europe was down and now it's positive.
and gains in asian trade. last week we did see a continuation of that post-trump election victory rally. we saw the s&p, the best of these three, it was up 2%. the nasdaq up 1.5%. the dow was up a quarter percent. the different sectors played last week, the energy was up and telecom was the best performing sector. health care was the worst. in the case of energy, we'll look at oil prices that was up 5% last week. strongest still today, 1.8%. the latest nuggets of information out of the hopes when opec production was cut. helina croft told us over the weekend that iran was getting on board with the prufroughly 2% g.
as you can see today, we are seeing the dollar softer to the tune of .50%. and it's losing .25% against the yen. nothing big to where it was last week, but it's not extending the dollar strength this morning. thank you. approaching the top of the hour, that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." kelly evans is joining us with what is coming up. >> we are going to speak to kellyanne conway on what to expect from the incoming administration this week. we know over the weekend he had a lot of people coming through bedminster, new jersey, to talk about some of the options there for the transition. and time is of the essence. just a couple months to go here. so as much as we have other market stuff to focus on, i suspect that will make up a good chunk of the discussion this morning. >> i wonder if kellyanne conway saw the "snl" skit. it was a pretty good impression of her, i have to admit. >> these are the new household names.
these are the new "snl" parody targets that comes with the territory. >> kate mcginnino is switching over her hillary impression to kellyanne conway. >> and now for the rest of the "worldwide exchange," we'll dive into the post-trump rally. we saw the yields up, the dollar up and equities up. i wonder at what point some of the factors will continue to correlate together, most notably the stronger dollar along the stronger equity markets. >> the stronger dollar has a lot of meanings. people want to buy our currency because they think they can buy something else with that currency and some of those things are stocks. and i've seen all sorts of correlations come and go and break and be fixed. basically, i don't see why a stronger dollar necessarily
means a weaker market. it's an indication that people want to buy our capital assets in this case. and go back to the '80s, you had a strong dollar and currency. correlations will be fine. i think at the end of the day people look through the effect on earnings and see a stronger dollar now means stronger europe and asia. >> fed speak from last week, bring together your conclusion of what is to come next year? >> we'll get as many as we can get without adversely affecting the economy. it's like me getting off the airplane. i get off not when it is scheduled to land but when it comes to the gate and opens the door. they would like to normalize rates but don't want to slow down the economy. this remains positive for the foreseeable future. that's a plus for the equity market. >> would they go for a half percent increase? >> sure, i think they could.
i don't think they like where rates are now, but they look to say, can we raise rates? we'll do it as quickly as possible. we would love to do it, but if we do it too quickly, every central bank realizes if they raise rates too quickly it could have disastrous consequences. which is why they won't raise rates too quickly. >> what are the top sector picks under a trump presidency? stocks will rally very hard in terms of where you think sectors will benefit and the ones that haven't run up quite enough already, where is the opportunity? >> it seems to me if i have gotten anything out of the post-election wiggle in the market, it is that gross expectations are going up. that's in the dollar and in the bonds and the stocks. so that means you need -- technology is suffering, but we'll do well as business to business technology makes it more productivity. financials are obvious. energy should be a plus. we need more energy consumption and more production, but that is not a bad thing. and health care is probably the best fundamental.
it's suffered a lot. the fundamentals are very good. we have new products. and obamacare may go away in its presence form, but i can't expect we don't inject a lot of money as people get old and need treatments that are available. >> is this a buying opportunity? >> i think it's a buying opportunity. i think we learned at the beginning of the year what solid value is over there. when the stocks can go down when they shouldn't have, and they go down for the first three, four, five months in the beginning of the year and they haven't, that means that evaluations are starting to matter and less so in fundamentals. it's the flip side of what happened to the tech stocks in the fourth quarter of 2000. they should have gone up and didn't. >> what about the smaller cap stocks, are those an attractive point or not yet? >> i'll go to mid-caps. historically mid-caps are intended to do better than large caps because they are mid-caps. they have the attractive
characteristics of liquidity with the efficiency of the smaller caps. they have moved up in the world. they have not performed the last couple of years, because earnings have gone nowhere. if earnings go up and that seems to be wall street's take, if earnings go up that takes back the impediment to hold him back. i'm willing to go there. >> we talked about developments in european politics, should the u.s. equity investors be looking over events there, the upcoming italian referendum next year, or is this a risk just for that reason? >> it's for everybody. as a rule of thumb, look at everything. if you worry before it happens, you won't have to worry when or after it happens. >> thank you, john, for joining us. great to have you with us. john manley of wells fargo funds. about 20 seconds left, keep an eye on oil prices that continue their rally up 1.7%. and developments in europe on the political front are also
good morning. crude prices are climbing. oil hits a high after the opec meeting. and futures are pointing to a higher open on wall street. on today's agenda, a speech by fed vice chair stanley fisher. plus, here we go. the trump transition. the president-elect meeting with a long list of advisers and potential cabinet members over the weekend. meanwhile, today is monday, november 21. kelly evans is here. kelly, i bought milk yesterday and the expiration date was already december. it's december, almost. and "squawk box" begins right
now. >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> that's when the one in my fridge expires. good morning, welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm kelly evans along with joe kernan. the s&p 500 applied to open up four points. the dow up 21 and the nasdaq 11 higher. so modest gains as you can see in a short trading week. what about the ten-year note? this one has been the story. when we left friday, it was in the range of 2.35. 2.33. the two-year, 1.068%. looking at green arrows across the board, the sang high is up