tv Closing Bell CNBC November 25, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EST
outperformance from the small and midcaps focused domestically. >> all the sectors are higher today except for energy out of the opec meeting. zbloog interestingly, not a lot of tech stocks, consumer tech stocks performing well today. go pro doing a little bit better than some others. that's it for squawk alley. just an hour left of trading. we're going to toss it over to kelly and bill on the floor for closing bell. ♪ you better shop around ♪ yeah ♪ you better shop around >> thank you, john. welcome to the closing bell, everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> that's right. do not adjust your television set. it is a shortened trading day on wall street, so this now is the last hour of stragd. this becomes the most important hour of the trading day. z >> this is also the most fun day. >> family day at the new york stock exchange. meanwhile, millions of americans go shopping this black friday. of course.
many of them are getting an early holiday gift. record highs today. again, now for the down u dow, the s&p, the russell, and the nasdaq their own record territory, many on a tear sense the election,as you know, and we'll look at which ones still have some room to run and which ones may have run their course at this point. >> retail has been a big winner in this trump rally, but we've got someone who says amazon prime could still be a big threat to the sector. we'll tell you which stocks are most at risk. >> also, donald trump says that he spoke to apple ceo tim cook about a large tax cut that could motivate the technology giant to build a big plant here in the united states. we have the impact of mr. trump's tax policy on jobs and corporate america and their buyback pobltsd. that's all coming up here. >> we begin with black friday. we've got our reporters on-line. the frontlines all over the country. courtney reagan at the fairfield commons mall in dayton, ohio. morgan brennan is at a jc penney store in garden city, new york,
among others, but we'll start with you two guys. are you. >> reporter: mall managers are saying that on-line sales so far are strong. shopping center manager jll is actually saying its locations are reporting that the big box retailers did, in fact, dominate early shopping. 73% of jll shopping centers are reporting sales on par or up from last year. now, adobe says thanksgiving day on-line sales up 11%, just shy of $2 billion. while couch consumers are certainly growing in numbers, there is one thing for certain. if you are a shopper that comes
out to hit the stores on black friday, you shop until you drop. >> we have not gone to sleep yet. >> really? >> yes. >> we had our turkey, and we moved out at 6:30, and we've been going strong. >> we stopped at kohl's and came straight to the mall after that. >> we started at wal-mart. we've been to target. we have been to the outlet malls in cincinnati. we're going to do a bunch of other places i can't even think of. >> reporter: now, you may not realize it, but appliances, home appliances, like washing machines, refrigerators, are actually a really big purchase on black friday. shoppers trying to take advantage of big discounts to get their homes ready for holiday hosting, but i don't want to ruin it because morgan brennan is going to tell you all about that coming up. back to you, guys, in new york city. >> thank you, courtney. >> let's get over to morgan who somehow got rid of that will sweater, morgan, with the lights. that was -- >> i liked that sweater. >> she's in a j c penney store that kick odd of the rush at
3:00 p.m. yesterday. how did that go? >> yes, that's right. i got rid of the sweater, but i got another prop for you. let's talk a little bit about jc penney. this is one of nearly 1100 locations that has been open since 3:00 p.m. yesterday. it's the earliest start time out of the major retailers. this particular location has been open for 21 hours straight, so it has been busy for a majority of that team. in focus as courtney just mentioned, is appliances. home goods. especially appliances. this is a big pafr the turnaround strategy for jw penney. the company has been rolling out about -- appliance storerooms like the one around me in about 500 stores, and as i mention, it's part of their turnaround strategy as it bets on the housing recovery under ceo marvin ellison who came on board last december from, says what else, home depot.
things like washer and dryer sets, for example. they say the average discount that they've been giving on these appliances is about 30%. analysts say this is a very positive for jc penneys in terms of the timing of the showrooms because as courtney just mentioned, appliance sales are very strong during the holidays. we actually see the highest transaction volumes during the holiday season for appliances. in addition to the home goods -- by the way, there are a lot of shelves picked clean perform towels and linens. we're seeing shoppers that i have spoken to saying they've bought a lot of boots and a lot of ath-leisure and makeup at the sephora boutique. people are conscious of the prices they're paying. it really shows folks coming here that done their homework ahead of time. guys.
>> yes. >> can you tell she's a new mom? >> it's perfect. >> thank you, morgan. see you later. >> which retail stocks are best for investors this holiday season. >> some of the worst performing stocks over the same period of time tend to be sears, barnes & noble, big lots, and game stop. joining us with the picks are from cnbc headquarters. great to see you both. >> where do you think -- >> you guys didn't tell me to bring props. what's interesting is aye been hearing a lot about appliances, and you think about these big ticket timz. the only reference to a sweater
was that oh deer sweater, and it's different than it used to be. in the context of what this black friday is, it's seeming to become a little bit more of a utility purchase rather than that gift discretionary purchase of i'm going to splurge and take advantage of a very cheap sweater. >> all that being said then, should you are a void some of the usual winners and stick with something else? how would you play this? >> it's interesting to us when we think about it. the winners that we see are the ones that don't have to go with the 40%, 50% box off deals. the companies that are less black friday intensive, the ultas, through cosmetics and ath-leisure seem to be the winners for us. the ones that jump in and go 50% off, they're getting hurt.
>> you look at amazon as a big reason why a lot of the cache of black friday has been lost, right? >> right. they started their deelds much earlier. they're really hitting consumers every day with offers and deals and a lot of shopping is being consolidated on the amazon in the amazon system because of prime. if you have prime, you are doing as much of your shopping as you can on amazon just because it's easy and, you know, the shipping. >> it's become more and more important to see that integration between the on-line and the physical store. some of those features like click and collect are very important, and just the ability to service consumers across channels is very, very important. obviously free shipping is also important, but i think macy's is winning in some of the categories at least for the
>> the activity we are seeing today is normal on a shortened session like this. i think investors are being patient right now waiting for next week. we've got a very full economic calendar next week. end of the week we get the job numbers. middle of the week is the end of the month. we'll see activity with that. now on top of that on wednesday there's an msci where there's going to be a large influx of liquidity into this market. next week should be a pretty interesting gauge to see if we can see this santa claus rally continue. >> in this environment where we have these all-time highs, a lot of focus on the retailers. where are you focused? where do you see good opportunities?
>> we're talking about the same exact thing. we don't have any competitors. they kind of cornered the market. yes, you're paying a lot, and sooner or later they will have competitors. you have be to careful of that. sometimes unlike some of the hosts or guests out there who are always krarian, sometimes you have to admit when something is good, you got to ride it out for slongsz you can. >> i don't think that's going away any time soon. >> courtney reagan tagged us as couch consumers. there you are. we wear the label well. a bit of a pause. the rise in rates. do you think the markets have gone about as far as they're going to go before we see any kind of a rate rise for the fed?
what's going on here? >> the markets are going to do what it's going to do. we pretty much see what it's doing. right now the dollar index is a whisker lower than it closed on wednesday at 1 on 1.70, which is the best close going all the way back to what the spring of 2003. >> they're closing at the levels of somewhere around 2015. well over a year. i think that the markets will do what they're going to do. the fed needs to tighten. i actually think it brings more problems than it solves, but i still think the market is going to keep moving. i think that jonathan is correct. this is a big day. we get our second look at third quarter gdp and adp and the dura labor statistics november jobs report. a variety of housing data. chicago, ism national. see, the real issue is we have
had many big fits of growth that were nonsustainable. maybe this is sustainable and overlaps with all the other issues the market is trying to grapple with. >> all right. we have to go at this point. good to see you. jonathan, thank you. ebenezer scrooge, nice to see you as well. have a good holiday weekend. >> we've made a few friends around here. >> we have. it's family day, and everybody is trying to get on camera here. >> how are you? >> you want to be in the shot there. out of the traders family coming down for this day after the thanksgiving holiday. we love this day. >> the dow -- the s&p is up 5. a strong session for the nasdaq up 11 is. the russell up three. >> up next president-elect trump says he is making progress in his words and keeping a plan indiana from moving to mexico as one of his big campaign promises. we'll have the latest developments on that and dauk about whether mr. trump can
small business saturday is our day to get out and shop small. a day to support our community and show some love for the people we love. and the places we love. the stuff we can't get anywhere else and food that tastes like home. because the money we spend here can help keep our town growing. tomorrow is small business saturday. let's shop small for our neighborhood, our town, our home. get up, (all) get together and shop small.
>> if you are just joining us, we're in the last hour of trades. half day because of the day after thanksgiving, black friday. the dow, the nasdaq, the s&p, the russell. all in record territory. the industrial average up 55 points. they're looking at possible acquisitions right now. >> swiss drug maker confirming that j & j confirmed its take-over target. the deal could be worth about $17 billion. no small change there. some energy names in the laggards today. president-elect trump is getting process and moving a u.s. factory to mexico. let's get to phil lebeau.
the plant in indianapolis. about 1,400 employees there that are expecting their jobs to go down to mexico over the next three years. president-elect trump sent out a tweet and certainly encouraging news on thanksgiving saying i am working hard. even on thanksgiving. trying to get carrier ac company to stay in the u.s. making progress. we'll know soon. a short time later carrier on its own twitter account put out this tweet. carrier has had discussions with the incoming administration and we look forward to working together. nothing to announce at this time. a typical employee makes between $16 and $21 in indianapolis. if they move to mexico and they complete that move, the expectation and this is purely an estimate, the expectation is that the workers in mexico will get about $3 an hour.
also, i've had a number of people ask me today, well, this is a huge deal for united technologies. certainly this has an impact on the bottom line. it's a diversified company when you look at otis elevator, 21% of its sales. aerospace 25%. then the part for carrier falls under the climate controls and security division. that's the largest chunk of the business. 29%. carrier is only a part of that division as you take a look at shares of united technologies. our own david faber is talking with people who are familiar with these discussions saying there is progress being made and there are no details regarding whether or not we will see something finalized or what kind of progress they are making. the bottom line is this -- president-elect donald trump last week said he had worked with ford to keep lincoln manufacturing in kentucky. now he has tweeted out that he
is working with carrier. there's no doubt that he is getting the attention of ceos in italy. sergio, who is the ceo of fiat chrysler said trump is a game changer. >> guys, back to you. >> phil, thank you for now. we'll see you again next hour. that's phil lebeau outdoors in chicago. donald trump also said in an interview the "new york times" recently that he spoke with apple ceo tim cook about bringing jobs back to the u.s. in their conversation trump told cook he wishes apple would build a big plant here. he said i think we'll create snebtives for you, and i think you're going to do it. we're going for a very large tax cut, which you'll be happy about. >> so can mr. trump really bring these jobs back to u.s. soil? let's bring in cnbc contributor jimmy p. from american enterprise institute. we've got our senior markets commentator mike san toll santo board as well.
it's about taxes and regulation. if you relax both of those, is that enough to bring more jobs, a meaningful number of jobs back to the u.s. them making something and them hiring lots of people is two different things. it's been a huge distraction during this campaign that we have talked about the impact of trade and globalization. it's really to a great extent, yesterday a story. today's story and tomorrow's story is the effect of automation on the american work force. mexico versus u.s. workers. it's not a close call financially. i think you have to ask the question, what is this a relatively unique situation given the fact that this is a
particular plant. mentioned a lot on the campaign trail. it happens to be in the state of the vice president-elect, and if we're talking about just making gestures of preserving a few jobs, yes, big companies might be able to do that, but doesn't it involve either an implicit promise or implicit threat is the president is pushing on you to do this. yopg we're going to need to make this call. it's all about the incentives that come down. also, one ironic thing, since mr. trump was elected, mexican peso has lost so much value that if you kartd about the numbers, it's even cheaper to put production over there. >> i mean, that's the problem. jimmy, isn't it? we have to go in a second here. wages and benefits have priced the american worker out of the market, and it's much cheaper overseas. you wonder how you roll that back enough to make it
economical when you have companies especially publicly traded companies that have a fiscal fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. >> what is the impact of company after company being nudged by this administration to do something they feel is not in their best business decision. this is -- we have the ford plant. >> bringing that money back if there is a tax holiday. what are they going to do with it? >> investors are able to see a little bit of a clearer line there. if you have a tax holiday, 10% on foreign cash held over there, you bring it over here. goldman sachs it's only $200 billion of $1 trillion stashed overseas by s&p 500 companies would be returned, and they think immediately it goes into buybacks. investment, yes, but buybacks in a big way, and what's interesting is those stocks that buy back a lot of their own shares have been outperforming quite a bit since the election.
>> it's going to go in shareholder pockets. >> all right. guys. thank you. jimmy, gooed to see you. have a good holiday. mooiks, see you next hour. we are heading to the close because this is the last hour of trading on this black friday. a half day for wall street. the dow up 55 points in record territory. in fact, all the major averages. the s&p, the nasdaq, the russell all in record territory here. >> coming up, more on the impact that on-line retail is having on brick and mortar stores this black friday. closing bell will be right back.
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can you see the dow, the nasdaq, the s&p and the russell with those names. that's good for new highs. we'll have 33 minutes to go into the close. >> by the way, happy holidays to anthony nodo. twitter's new chief financial officer has 12 million new reasons to be thankful. according to a filing with the securities and exchange commission, nodo has been awarded an annual stock package worth up to $12 million, which reflects his increased role at the company. noto has served as twitter's chief financial officer for the past two years. he is replacing adam bain who announced his departure on november 9th. >> yeah. now he is chief operating officer and he is one of the few twitter officers who has been buying twitter shares over the
last couple of years. >> firefighters making progress today. it's just one of dozens burning around the country. leaders blaming arsonists for some of the blazes that have damaged or destroyed hundreds of home. more than 60,000 israelis have had to flee, but no reports of deaths or serious injuries. >> the attack would be the deadliest one by isis since 300 were killed in the region last yul. >> the trump team saying cabinet announcements won't be made this weekend. a transition aide reporting
today president-elect trump is planning to meet with eight people next week as he focuses on forming his cabinet. >> first lady michelle obama welcoming the official white house christmas tree today. the 19 foot fir tree will be set up in the blue room. that's the cnbc news update at this hour. i feel like bill would probably be with a 19 foot tree at home, right? >> no. autodo you go real or artificial? sflool real. >> do you cut it down yourself? >> no, but we did that back in california, but here we just go pick up the tree. you know, i love the newstands they've got out now. you put a stand down, and you throw the tree in it, and you step on the thing on the stand, and it pulls the tree up. i can't tell you the number of christmas trees that i drop kicked out the front door because it wouldn't stay up on the stand.
>> thank you, seema. >> thank you. >> the gold market is closing out the week. you don't usably get to do this one. let's go to jackie deangeles for the close there. >> it's nights to do the gold close with you guys. zoo we are looking at a close just around $1,180. remember, we're seeing thinner volumes in metals because of the holiday. things are likely to pick up next week, but the technicals in this trade remain weak. 1,172 was a level of support. intraday we did break that move. again, closing over that. the bearish factors right now, the strang dollar continues to be a problem.
at the same time some saying this is a buying opportunity for gold. especially if you want to use it as a hedging strategy, if you are worried about uncertainty still ahead. yet, again, today is an example of risk on day, so money coming out of the gold trade. >> it's been stuff sledding for those owning gold at the moment. >> the we understand out of that sale there. >> a trieder will tell you what they're launching into the black friday session yet. >> the dow on track for yet another close today. it has rallied more than 4 hers since the election. coming up, we're going to look at which stocks may keep benefitting from the so-called trump trade when we come back.
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package deliveries to set records this holiday season. thanks in part to an estimated 17% jump in on-line spending. not that i'm sneaking some in right now, bill. >> yes, i know. another couch consumer at work. joining us on the phone matt cheslock who brought a few have his children with him today. >> not -- my children are all financial advisors where. >> all your family here. >> can't afford more than what i have. >> this rally -- this is sort of a microcosm of what we've been through the last six or eight years, this market just is relentless here. when you consider that oil today down 4%. the only thing that moved are a few of the oil stocks. >> the trends continue. we expect so much out of the trump administration, and the market was going to be going down. we've gotten caught. shorts got caught, and now we have all these great, you know, tax implications and road improvements, infrastructure plays. everything, you throw a dart at a dart board, and you'll hit at
least right now. >> do you sense that the momentum is starting to slow. it's a half day. it's a holiday. do you sense the momentum is throwing e slowing to the up side? >> every sector right now is strong. we're talking about stocks being undervalued. we're talking about small caps being almost 20%. these are incredible moves. it doesn't feel like it's topee yet. that's scare why i. >> now i want to ask the experts. you are all trader's kids. how many of you are bullish on the stock market right now? >> stocks going up or down? >> how many are bearish on the stock market right now? >> stocks going up or down? >> we have a bunch of fence sitters here. >> i taught them well. >> yes, you did. very well. >> thank you, guys. wave to the camera here as we go out. thank you, matt. have a good holiday there. >> you too, bill. >> i always wondered who was in that aaii poll, bill? 25 minutes to go here and, again, we're at record levels across the street. as long as we close higher today, that's true for the dow, s&p, nasdaq, russell 2,000, and even the midcaps. up next we'll hear from target
ceo about why he thinks donald trump's victory will impact his company's bottom line, and the market is seeing some big gains since that election. two stock pickers will tell us which stocks are still worth buying and which ones have run their course. stay tuned. ♪ mapping the oceans. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job? my job at exxonmobil? turning algae into biofuels. reducing energy poverty in the developing world. making cars go further with less. fueling the global economy. and you thought we just made the gas. ♪ energy lives here.
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>> his focus on stimulating job growth is beneficial for us. again, if it's a positive consumer, you know, we feel like we'll win, and as he continues to focus on health care, putting together his program to drive jobs in america, we're going to be watching that very carefully. we certainly expect to see some of that during the holiday season, and we think we're well positioned to capture it. >> that from target ceo brian cornell who was on with us earlier at the post nine. a lot of this would be facilitated by the majority that's been achieved by the republicans in both the senate and the house that will allow a lot of these programs to go through. theoretically. >> it's a great buy. a lot of people are -- that's
still kind of perculating. it's undeniable when you look at what happened across the state level, even on the national level, and both chambers of congress, that underpinning is what perhaps more than anything made the market wake up the next morning and go, wow, something big just happens here. >> people are craving this growth. >> the dow is on track to post its eighth record close perhaps anticipating all of this. since then the index up 5%. the nasdaq has gained more than 4%. the s&p up almost 4% itself. >> this is a big question, and joining us with our picks are mark and -- and reverend luna. wealth management. give under the circumstances some places to look here.
>> both of the subsectors of the market are up 15% to 20% post-election, and i think they've gotten way ahead of themselves. i think that some backing and filling to the tune of 5% to 10% would be in order before i would be a willing and able buyer at that juncture because i do think they stand to benefit from the trump bump that lasts well into 2017 if not beyond. >> you think jp morgan is another one. it's come so far in the last few weeks. you would hang on, but you wouldn't buy is here, i guess. >> yeah. i would agree with the other guests, bill. financials have been a dog for several years now, and you are starting talking about trump initiatives like deregulation. you are starting to see interest rates rise up. finally the sector is going to face some tail winds instead of head winds. jp morgan, though, is one of the few companies trading above book. you still have citi below book. bank of america, below book. that's probably a place you would want to look first.
i do agree. i think financials are going to be a leader for the next year to two. >> there was pnc bank. snoo you say halliburton. >> we're back off about 4% on oil prices on some expectation that perhaps saudi arabia may not be in agreement with russia to on the november 30th meeting agree to some production cuts. i don't think it matters. i think we're going to see inventory draws begin in 2017. if there's production cuts, it's only going to amplify those positions to turn in event we don't have that. i still think the supply balance comes in effect whereby you have enough demand where those positions will respond favorably for a better more firmer oil market next year.
>> u.s. steel up 60%. for that reason i think you're looking to take some money off the table in that one. is that right? >> absolutely. i take the money and run on u.s. steel. up 60% since trump has been elected. also about 300% year-to-date. you know, one thing i learned a long time ago about commodity stocks, bill, is that these are a trade. they're not long-term investments. after 300% run, 60% in the last couple of weeks, i definitely cut that because, you know, there's still a lot of issues for steel out there. there's over supply. this is just the simplistic trade of infrastructure in the hope that there's going to be tariffs on cheaper imported steel. i think that's a lot of hope, though, and right now i would be taking some money off the table in u.s. steel. >> you also aren't a buyer of kohl's here, which is on your sell list. is polaris a name that polaris motorcycles that you would buy here? >> yeah. polaris is one of my favorite names. i koebt own it, full disclosure, but we are looking at possibly purchasing here. a lot of good catalysts for
polaris. that's middle america that's their consumer base, and trump is talking about creating infrastructure jobs for them. they've made smart acquisition with hammerhead, transamerican partnership, and, you know, right now when you look at the company, it's down 40% since the summer. it's rallied 15% in the last couple of weeks. i think there's a lot of up side for this name. >> mark, i assume you think the fed is going to raise rates next month. are we in a period have rising rates, and what will that do to a lot of these companies in the meantime? >>. >> we've seen some indigest john in equity prices when that occurs. i think it is pretty certain at this juncture. the question will be what we hold for 2017, and i still think the fed is going to be willing under this high pressure economy that a lot of things run a little hot.
may even as a raising of the cost of capital for some of the other stocks be a source of indigestion for the market at large. again, i worry that the market is pulling a little forward. all the good news and has not necessarily concentrated. >> good to see you both. thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. >> good weekend. >> some places to look there even as we're at record highs again. 13, 14 minutes to go into the close. dow at 50 brsh s&p up five. nasdaq up 13. russell up three. >> we are in the last 15 minutes of trading here. up next, this being friday, could only mean one thing. independent investment consultant david darst will be here with his acronym of the week, and it's, as usual, a very appropriate one for the week and for the season
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. >> we begin with the quick market. >> i want to point your attention to china's biggest on-line travel company. shares are surging. up double digits right now. the company is extending its global reach agreeing to buy u.k. travel search website sky scanner. the deal values sky scanner at $1.7 billion, and the company
also reported strong quarterly results. hsbc raising its price target for ctrip to $53 from $46. shares, though, still down 2% so far this year, but, again, a big mover in today's far this year. but a big mover in today's session, up more than 10%. bill? >> all right, seema, thank you very much. joining us on the floor of the new york stock exchange with exactly ten minutes left trading session because it is a shortened day, we have david darnst. you could have gone the full -- >> i can do three hours nonstop. >> i'm aware of that, but it could have been thanksgiving if we had enough time. >> i wish they would let me extend beyond about six letters. connecticut governor wilbur cross wrote a series of proclamations, the most important of which is called the
heal of or ian. he said let us give thanks for what this nation has. the essence of this. t is trump's -- his actions and his words so far. so far the market has been okay with them. h is new highs for the dow, the s&p, the russell 2000. so you got to be a little careful. we have come up quite a ways. a is asia mending. seema just talked about external acquisitions now, but china and japan doing better. n, k, keen sense of reality. >> don't skip over next year's profits. >> next year's profits to be up, thank you, about 12%, 13%. the market is anticipating and liking that. >> a keen sense of reality. >> a keen sense of reality. sir john templeton lived 96 years and said bull markets are
born on pessimism. they grow on skepticism. they mature on optimism. and they die on euphoria. keep your sense of perspective. we're just now entering optimism. we're nowhere near euphoria. this thing can still run. s, saudi arabia, the 30th, next wednesday, the opec meeting. can they keep production stabilized, then oil price can lift a little bit. with that, the market. next week we got the four cs. the classic always at the end of the month. chicago pmi, case-shiller, consumer confidence, and construction spending. so you want to keep an eye on that and the jobs numbers on friday. and consensus for 185,000 new hire. want to watch that average hourly earnings. and i'm very happy to go for another 33 hours if you would like. >> i think it is pretty clear, just stating the opposite as i often do, we had a real change in sentiment in this market as
we -- after the election. >> sam sell was on "squawk box" saying everybody he talks to is changing from pessimism to optimism. >> the reason we have applause, right behind us, santa has arrived. we know the season has gone -- right behind him are members of the u.s. marine corps because they will be ringing the closing bell today to commemorate their annual toys for tots program, one of the great traditions in our country and it is always a welcome sight here on wall street today. i guess he's acknowledging the santa claus rally. >> the santa claus rally and it could go further from here. be careful. >> we will see. david, thank you. >> thank you. >> have a great weekend. >> you too. the dow is up 45 points as we head to the close. the top four major averages are in record territory. we'll have the closing countdown for you in just a moment. stay tuned, right after that, online shopping, is it
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minutes before the close. this is the last few minutes of trading because of black friday. and the dow, the major averages all in record territory. dom chu is with me here as with we head toward the close. >> highs of the session of the holiday shortened session. >> you can't call this a light trading day because we're, i mean, it is half a day. so you can't expect the volume numbers to be where it would be, but the pace is slower than normal, but that's to be expected. >> 300 million shares already on the exchange now. it is not bad. half a day, but still if you look where we are for the major averages, we're in record territory, small caps doing their thing, plugging away. it has been a huge move for the market on this holiday shortened week. >> one propellant is the rally of the dollar since the election. little pause today. we were hitting numbers we haven't seen in years. >> 101.48 now. dollar index part of that story as well. commodities overall.
>> wednesday's close was the highest we have seen since 2003 for the dollar index. >> and the dollar index is going to be a topic of conversation for a good while to come, just because of the impact potentially on earnings and what not. and what it is going to do to oil prices maybe because it is denominated in dollars. gold prices, all of these commodities, priced in dollars, the higher the dollar goes, the more head wind it becomes for those prices. >> ten-year yields holding steady, all of the long-term treasury yields here. i'm asking, rick santelli, whether he thinks the market is going to pause here, waiting for the fed, but how much higher could yields go here? >> 2.38% on the ten year is what he saw a little resistance. maybe we'll see that and have it play out. i got to tell you, though, when it comes to what has happened on the floor, this week my stock of the week, it has got to be deere. nothing runs luke a dee s like . the best performing stock overall, it had an impact on
caterpillar, and deere shares giving that big kind of industrial push. things are bullish for them. and you can see them right over there. >> we were just talking about it, u.s. steel, up 61% now since the -- just since the election. up 300% this year. >> so if you take all of those themes and wrap them together, you look ahead to next week, the stock of the week probably will be and i'll make a call on this editorially. >> write this down. he's picking next week's stock of the week. >> tiffany. we're going to get the results coming out next week. we have been talking about the impact of the higher end consumer and whether that will be at all hurt by that is going on in the marketplace. we know things are going pretty well for the guys so far. as you can see there, it was a rough go for the first couple of months this year, and then we have seen a nice rise higher. >> opec meets next week. today, a decline as saudi arabia declines to meet with the russians as part of the nonopec meeting on monday. that was a pretty appreciable decline we saw . >> absolutely. oil prices focus as we head towards that meeting. >> thank you, sir. >> thank you.
>> lovely having you with us on the countdown as we go out on a half a trading day, but it is enough for record highs again for the dow, the s&p, the nasdaq and the russell 2000. once again, santa and members of the u.s. marine corps ringing the bell today here at the new york stock exchange, commemorating the annual beginning of the toys for tots tradition in america. stay tuned now for the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly evans and company. >> welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. record highs across the board today on wall street, on the shortened trading session, we're closing a couple of hours early, but still one for the books. the dow up 65 points on the bell to close at 19,149 there. we'll keep an eye on it. the s&p 500, how about gain of 8 points to close at a new high of 2112. the nasdaq up a third of a
percent today to 5398. and the russell 2000, which has been on a tear since election day, leading the way, really, of all of the averages up another third of a percent to 1346. and while markets have been climbing higher since the election, apple has been sitting this rally out. it is up slightly since november 9th, what it indicates about the company and how it could impact shareholders is coming up. joining me on the panel today, on this black friday, we have cnbc's senior market commentator and pro columnist michael santoli and evan newmark. chris johnson, from jk investment group, joins us with kevin koran. really appreciate having everybody here on this black friday, shortened trading day and the family you brought along with you as well. >> an upside buy, just really drifting higher, tacking on to the gains. i think what is interesting is the inside the market, not just the headline index, how this has
played out since the election, smaller cap stocks, up more than 12% since the election. the s&p 500 up 3%. flows into the exchange rate, and have really got noon the silly zone. you've seen a lot of people seeming psychologically like they had to rush to participate here. and you're seeing that in some of the investor surveys. right now, you know, you have an upside seasonal bias that continues for a while into the next few weeks. i think the question now is have people gotten overexcited in the very short-term basis. >> speaking of small caps, there is the investor bullishness on the rise and it reflected in the flows chasing this performance, the russell, i think, just closed at its 15th consecutive rally day, the first time it happened since the 15-day win streak in 1996. just keeps going. >> yeah. it has -- it is almost -- sometimes they talk about a feel to the market, has that quasi euphoric kind of, like, today i think if you ask mike santoli
this morning when he got up, which was much earlier than i did, and said to him, is it going to be enough, he said absolutely. you had that feel, as soon as the market opened it was up and not going to close down unless something bad happens. i would say that theme holds until the end of the year, which is -- it will -- things will go higher as long as something bad doesn't happen. i can't say what that bad thing might be. >> sure, you never can, but you know that's the kind of risk around the corner. chris, you were saying your clients are asking you can this rally continue? what are you advising of? >> absolutely. one thing i need to -- i think we need to stop calling this a trump rally and call it a certainty rally. there is a lot of uncertainty heading into the election. that's why everybody is sitting on the sidelines. and what we're seeing is just some confidence in the market, consumer confidence numbers, we're seeing just money moving around and reallocating itself. so to apps eanswer the question think we'll have a pullback at some point when everybody gets
back to trading. one thing that stands out is if you look since 1950, the market doubles its usual performance from the beginning week of november to the end of december, after any election. so that's your certainty there. >> just going to say, such an extraordinary move though. to get granular, for people trying to figure out what to avoid, you say avoid health care, avoid dividend yielders, emerging markets, real estate. you like industrials, regional banks, insurance transportation and defense. that's a good summary of what is working in this market, you're just saying to sort of stick with those. >> right, it is. think about it, kelly. this is a migration of funds now. a lot of people have been sitting in safe hashers, loat d. the question is how much certainty will we get from the fit at the next meeting. if the fed comes out and gives us a clear path, we'll see this migration of cash continue and those are the sectors you'll see and continue to be favored for the market. pell wom people will look for an
opportunity to pull back. >> i think it has gotten a little ahead of itself in the near term. if you look beyond the stock market, look at the spreads in the bond market, corporate spreads relative to treasuries, they have come in very sharp, very fast. you had a big change in terms of currencies, so the overall risk on trade that has been the case for the last couple of weeks has been very sharp, very fast, and that pace can't continue. so we expect that to calm down. you also point out that if you look at the value of the stock market in the united states, we're almost at $25 trillion. we have an 18, $19 trillion economy. this is not a particularly cheap market, so our only word of caution would be not to get ahead of yourself in terms of thinking about what the returns on the stock market is going to be. we're thinking five, six percent longer term, but still better
than bonds or cash. >> i think the two things to look at are bonds because the thing that could cap this is if you had a real -- a real -- even a greater push to its higher yields in the next few weeks. i think it is totally realistic to think the ten-year could be a 250 at the end of the year. 236. it is getting close. very realistic. maybe have the 30-year up around 325 and really far from that right now. 302. and that could put a damper on the stock market. the other thing i would look at is in dollar terms, the overseas markets, europe has been a real loser in dollar terms over the past couple of years. it is down on the order of 20%. and that kind of disconnect between the performance and the u.s. market and euro, you ask yourself how long can that continue? >> i was going to point out to put it into context in terms of the average retirement portfolio, since the election, up about 1%.
you lost enough on bonds that it offsets some of the stock. >> that's a great point. everybody, stay right there. today is black friday after all. and we're wondering whether strong retail sales today or during this period could help give the market rally more fuel. we have it all covered for you. courtney reagan is at a mall in dayton, ohio, aditi roy is looking at the future. how is the day going there? >> it had been pretty smooth sailing until an hour ago. catch point systems monitors retail websites and alerts issues caused by third parties. so take a look at this. earlier this hour, macy's home page was showing a temporary shopping jam screen. that's fixed now. i understand there is still some issues when you try to click through the different merchandise pages. it is also taking about 25 seconds to load william sonoma web and mobile sites. that's way too long on any day, but especially on black friday. this morning on "squawk box,"
terry lundgren was optimistic saying there was 16,000 people in line at the flagship store. but i talked to a number of analysts that are seeing some more mixed pictures. store execution, particularly at walmart, is better than ever. but that mall traffic is lighter than he's ever remembered seeing on a black friday. at least so far. deutsche bank's paul trussle said he and his team think shoppers seem to be holding back a little bit or not in such a rush to open up their wallets and spend. but he does think that target and jcpenney have a strong opening and that kohl's got better throughout the night, with 10:00 being the best hour for that department store. now, deutsche bank and mkm partners analyst roxanne myer said they are seeing some strong positive signs at l brands, victoria's secret and pink, there is a significant uptick in traffic in those stores as well as the number of bags that they're seeing walking out. the problem is the discounts are
deeper, so watch for that margin when we get numbers to see what happened there. but so far there are a lot of good signs, we just won't know what really happens until it all shakes out. we can't see what is happening online either. >> courtney, did you buy anything while you were there today? >> i haven't yet. but i do actually have a long list i would like to get started on. and now that the market closed, i think maybe i can turn some attention that way. >> exactly. we'll let you go get to it. thank you. traditional brick and mortar retailers are finding new ways to fight increasing competition online. sounds like it is a tough slog. aditi roy, how are they trying to do this? >> hi there, kelly. good to see you. the lines here at the toys "r" us store here in red wood city haven't been too bad. that's because toys "r" us has been open from thanksgiving day for a marathon 30 hour sales event. and just one of the ways the company is trying to compete with those online retailers and that competition as we talked about is formidable, especially this year. adobe just forecast thanksgiving day alone would bring in $2
billion in online revenue for first time. the store manager here at the toys "r" us tells us that black friday lines have shrunk over the past few years due to the online competition. toys "r" us is battling the online competition by offering the option to buy online and pick up in store. and they're really focusing in on that and making that pickup as easy as possible. >> an opportunity to come in here and skip through the lines, right, we have easy stations that you can go to, pick up your item, scan, you know, your bar code, a team member comes out, you get your product and on your way. >> and that customer experience is also at the heart of their strategy, in competing with those online giants like amazon and ebay, trying to stage their store to make black friday as much a fun experience as it is a shopping expedition. kelly, back to you. >> all right, aditi, thanks. i'm sure you have a long list of toys to pick up yourself there, so we'll let you go. >> i've already done that.
>> very good. thanks. so let me just ask you, we haven't talked about retailers being a sector you like here. what would you do with this space? >> this is one of those weird spaces, kelly, where i think you're better as a stock picker. talked about the amazon.coms and the brick and mortars. they're going to do better than everybody expects this year. we hear about the mall traffic being lower, it is not surprising. black friday is not really just black friday anymore. a lot of people find those deals a week or two even before christmas. i think it will be slow and steady for the retailers. somebody previously mentioned tiffany. that will be interesting to watch next week, it speaks to the high end retailer, which we're seeing a little more activity, a little more confidence there. again, as we have seen some clarity from the election. and some other items. i think that's where you find, you know, some meat on the bone in the retail secretarier.
>> yi think company wide, i head this morning, might be less than that, maybe 20% of the store business. it is a big chunk. >> by the way, a little tease for on the money on sunday, we talked to the ceo, jerry stoych, he said they're getting hit what happens with the stronger dollar and the overseas customers not showing up. >> that's about right. if you think about the dollar particularly recently, the strength in the dollar is going to have an effect. you have to factor that in. if you look at the conditions here in the united states, the other thing to remember is that we're now moving along and continuing where the traditional brick and mortar are getting more of an online presence and you have more of a -- it is more of a hybrid, a lot murkier this year getting through the data to parse out what is typically seen as an online merchandiser versus
a brick and mortar merchandiser. >> what is the kevin koryn split. 60/40 online stores? >> you mean, my personal spending? my wife, my daughter? we're 50/50 because my daughter is at the mall working the credit card there, and my wife is on the computer at homework the credit card. so 50/50. >> and you're here. you're having to deal with us. appreciate you being here. guys, thank you. closing remark? >> i never got black friday. never got the retail business. i think for a long-term investment, it is a dangerous place to be. >> i would point out, s&p retail down today, underperforming by quite a bit. the textbook is you sell the stock on black friday because they had their run and up 12% since the election. >> not bad. stocks -- >> hard for me to be excited about macy's 30 years from now. >> apple hasn't participated in
the trump rally. that stock is flat since the election. we're going to look at whether it could get a bump into year end without a must have product this year. and americans are lining up to get their hands on black friday retail deals. 17,000 people at macy's flag ship. we'll hear from somebody who says recent trends suggest traditional shopping centers are entering a death spiral. shift iy is happening before our eyes. sixty to seventy million people are moving to cities every year. at pgim we help investors see the implications of long term megatrends like the prime time of urban expansion, pinpointing opportunities to capture alpha in real estate, infrastructure and emerging markets. partner with pgim the global investment management businesses of prudential.
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welcome back. the dow hitting new highs again today, apple sitting out of most of this so-called trump rally. that stock is up half a percent since november 9th. the dow is up 4% and without a must have product this holiday season, what does it mean for apple's bottom line? joining us are gene munster and ross gerber. thank you for your time on this friday. gene, is it true? there is just nothing compelling that apple is offering shoppers this holiday season? >> i think it is true from the standpoint of what the media thinks about this, but the consumer definitely wants it. piper jaffray retail team did a recent survey of 1,000 consumers in the u.s. and so this is across all products. and not just tech products, the iphone was the number one requested gift this holiday at 7%. that's up from 5% last year. the mac was the number two
requested gift and the third most requested was xbox at 1%. so i understand that the theme is it is not as exciting, but consumers want to be buying these iphones. >> ross, what do you think? >> i think he's right. and we would love to get iphone 2 but you can't get one. the supply chain of the jet black 7 plus, you can't get a phone. that's going to hurt their earnings moving forward. they have manufacturing issues, issues in china, a stronger dollar that will help foreign sales. so we just changed our view on apple considerably over the last six to eight months and we're very disappointed with management. it is just so disappointing to have nothing, absolutely nothing new. >> evan, mike what do you think? >> i think it is -- at the top end of the s curve in terms of technology. a lot of these improvements, they're cosmetic. there is nothing revolutionary about what they're doing. which is not a criticism, just
an observation. i'm not sure that tim cook could come up with something that is going to dramatically change their trajectory. i don't -- and because the stock is so big already in terps ms o market cap, it just gets much harder for the stock to grow. >> gene? >> i think we're totally missing the point here. we're focused, hyperfocused on the trees here and not the forest. we're focused on the supply issues that will get worked out. at the end of the day, maybe the features weren't as exciting as they have been in the past. this is a product, iphone is a product that people want. >> but you're missing the point. have you seen the commercial, their commercial is so out of touch, with what consumers are doing and it is, like, they have missed the iot revolution, they missed vr. google is taking their lunch and that's where you got to rotate your money, rotate your money out of apple, and into google and microsoft because that's where the opportunity is. google is really a much better
company today. >> i would argue that you're missing the point that ultimately the consumer still wants this. i think the expectations from investors is very long on apple now. if they can deliver on where the street is at, the stock will respond. >> i hope you're right, gene. i got $10 million of it. >> the way to knit it up is the stock is not priced as if it expects or needs revolutionary new product cycles. i think they're on a treadmill, though, where i do think if let's state 7 does better, maybe they can deliver something into the first quarter, first calendar quarter of next year, are we going to be talking about did they steal away from the iphone 8. i think they're on the treadmill. the stock at 12 times earnings is not at a demanding level. >> earnings are going down. that's part of the problem. if earnings are going down, what is the pe over the next two years going to be? maybe it is priced correctly and that's the issue. they got to do something at some
point? it is like how many years? >> we don't want you -- >> earnings have gone down. i don't think they're going down on a multiyear basis. >> guys, again, thank you. mitt romney is reportedly the front-runner for the secretary of state job. but could backlash from trump's biggest supporters put that in jeopardy? we'll have the latest on the trump transition next. and how about a live shot of the mall of america in bloomington, minnesota. we'll head there live to hear from one of the mall's top executive on what they're doing to get people to shop there instead of online. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t.
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welcome back. stocks keep hitting new highs. eamon javers joins us with the latest on the transition. >> we are told not to expect any more cabinet appointments until monday at the earliest. donald trump is in mar-a-lago in palm beach, florida, relaxing over the weekend or as much as a president-elect can relax over the weekend. we expect that he's going to have some more meetings on monday. we're getting some intelligence now about the meetings including a confab with paul atkins scheduled for monday. he is significant because he is the transition person handling financial regulations. he is a former s.e.c. commissioner. and he's viewed as possible candidate to run the s.e.c. under donald trump. we know mary jo white will be
leaving at the end of president obama's term. he's very skeptical about financial regulation, broadly, and also about the idea of finding companies large dollar amounts in punishment for their bad behavior. his argument has been that these might just benefit or hurt shareholders and not really go after the individuals who actually committed the fraud there. other interesting picks, we're waiting for some majors, waiting for treasury, waiting for defense and we're also waiting for a secretary of state pick. there is this interesting behind the scenes battle that seems to be brewing between supporters of rudy giuliani and supporters of mitt romney. we'll have to wait and see how that one plays out next week. it is the establishment versus the trump insiders. >> that one will be fascinating. thank you so much. let's get over to seema mody for your news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. a deadly shooting in a mall parking lot about 50 miles from
atlantic city. police saying a man was killed and his brother injured around 1:00 a.m. outside a macy's. they were both in their 20s. no word on who was behind the gunfire. the mall, which has closed, or was closed when the shooting happened, reopened at 6:00 a.m. for black friday shoppers. accused white supremacist dylann roof has been found mentally competent to stand trial. he's facing the death penalty in connection to last year's shooting, nine black churchgoers in south carolina. jury election begins on monday. india's agriculture ministry reporting an outbreak of h5n8, a contagious strain of the bird flu virus. it has been found in several european and middle east countries in recent weeks. and tickets for the new "star wars" film go on sale on line this monday at 12:01 eastern time. more than two weeks ahead of the release date. rogue one hits theaters on december 16th. it is expected to make at least
$130 million at the u.s. box office during its opening weekend. looks fun. that's your cnbc news update. kelly, back to you. >> thank you. investors not shopping for oil this black friday. crude is just minutes away from closing. we're going to find out what's behind today's pullback next. transports have been taken off since the election. find out if they can keep flying high thanks to this record thanksgiving travel weekend. that is still to come.
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welcome back. another record day on wall street, the dow closed up about 68 points on the bell there, 19,152. the nasdaq up just shy of 5400 for the nasdaq. the s&p at 2213. the russell 2000, adding five points to 1347. i think my eyes are getting tired. >> a little more -- i saw that, an exclamation point on the teleprompter. record day! record day! >> oil trading is closing now! >> just hitting new session lows as a matter of fact. we touched 45.95. we'll close around $46, a $2 loss on the day.
and session losses increased as we went throughout the day because there is more confusion about what is going to happen next week with this opec meeting. you have headlines regarding the saudis and talks with russians, only complicating matters here. the russians aren't even a part of opec, this is supposed to be an opec deal. it doesn't seem like they can coordinate and get their act together. that's what the market is concerned about right now. for the most part, market participants think we are going to hear something positive in terms of a freeze or a cut. but they don't know how much we'll hear. then the skeptics out there who are saying, look, they have done this to us, 100 times before, they may end up doing nothing why which is why they say we'll give you a framework and wait until late november to tell you more about it. some people looking for a watershed moment that looks like the game of chicken is coming to the end with the saudis weakening the position here. that may not be the case. the bottom line is this, if they come back to a situation where supply and demand fundamentals
are ruling the roost, we know this, we still have an oil glut, a supply glut on our hands, demand is not going up fast enough to consume it. that will send prices down. on top of that, consider the fact this dollar continues to climb high and higher. expectations are that will push crude down as well. a lot of moving parts as we head into the weekend when it comes to the crude trade. >> certainly are. a huge focus next week. jackie, have a great weekend. >> thank you. speaking of crude, you're talking about the energy names back when they were depressed, right? they have been on such a run now. >> they have done very -- they have done very, very well over the last year. and really going forward, it really does come down to -- even if you get the global economy growing faster than it has been over the last few years and been quite anemic, you're not going to shift the demand part of the equation. unless china, for some reason, turns around and starts growing at 10% again. >> absolutely. here is what i find so interesting.
even if the saudis come out and are able to push opec into some kind of agreement, how much of an impact does that have on the supply side of the equation, won't they be ceding market share to the u.s. >> long-term, yes. i think that's why it is more about just the psychological incremental change among traders. that's where we're talking about here. we're talking about the range from 40 to 50 as if the stakes are really high. can we break above 50? we didn't get below 80 for four years. the idea that this is all very important and big swing factor based on the cost of energy is not the case. it is more about does it stabilize around this level or not and can you make money at this level? >> what is so interesting, though, is that there are significant geopolitical consequences for russia and for saudi arabia. so they actually -- they actually have a lot more at stake than u.s. drivers who are going, maybe i'll drive -- maybe the gallon of gas will cost me two bucks instead of 2.50. it doesn't matter, where it really matters is in russia.
>> different from the '70s and '80s. black friday is under way and people are hitting the stores. as more online retailers including amazon kick of deals today, rather than waiting until the traditional cybermonday, brick and mortar stores are facing tough competition. the tactics shopping center landlords are using to help struggling retailers. the mall of america in minnesota, we'll head there live to speak with the mall executive on the strategies that attract locals and tourists. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ how else do you think he gets around so fast?
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black friday shopping is in full swing out at the mall of america. but breaking from the retail tradition, mall of america closed its doors yesterday on thanksgiving, gifting its 15,000 person staff a day off for the holiday. joining us now for today's edition of closing bell access is jill renslo at the mall of america. welcome, jill. i've been there. i've got family not far away. and i have to say, your alpaca store huge hit, you can buy alpaca fur, those are unique products, you can't get those a lot of places. talk about your strategy on black friday. >> with over 520 stores, mall of america has something for everyone. just like your alpaca gifts, we have something for the tech lovers, for the fashion enthusiasts, and toy lovers, everything. it is jamming here. we have such fabulous traffic.
we started early this morning, 1500 people are waiting outside our doors to enjoy the excitement on black friday. >> so there are still people trying to get in? >> oh, they'll come throughout the day. as far as as you see the day progress, people come and enjoy the entertainment, giveaways, great promotions, giving away $200,000 worth of prizes this weekend. so people are just -- they're ecstatic about the holiday season and having a wonderful time. >> it sounds like you're make it a jamboree. music, food, giveaways. is that what it takes to survive in today's retail landscape when you've got competitors like amazon that you're up against? >> you know, the beauty of mall of america is that we're all about the experience. so much more than just shopping and people come here because they want to create memories, whether it is sitting with santa or connecting with us on our social media channels, we're very active with all different age groups and demographics and how they want to connect with us. we have something for every age. >> any regrets about closing
yesterday? because the early word from some of the stores that opened earlier than usual is that it helped them. >> no, we're thrilled that we closed yesterday. it was the right decision. we gave the day back to our employees to spend with their families. it rejuvenated everybody. the emotions and sentiment with this building is unbelievable. the retailers are having a blast. the shoppers are having a great time and our employees are thankful for the shift that we made this year. >> i bet they are. jill, for people who might have been there 10 or 20 years ago what do you think is the biggest change? the mix of stores? do you have more local retailers in there you couldn't find somewhere else? pop-up stores? is it simply that, you know, the retailers are familiar but what you're doing inside the mall is different? what are the biggest changes you've made? >> we're constantly evolving at mall of america. we listen to what customers want. and really look at the emergence of online shopping, creating
digital channels, changing the leasing mix, we're accommodating the trends. a huge trend in athleisure, and fabletics is a new one. and making sure we have something for the locals and the international shopper. we have 40% of our guests are from the nation and internationals, tourists. what is great is we don't havec love coming to shop here. >> that's true. if you work from the mall of america, are you allowed to have an amazon prime account? or is that verboten? >> we are allowed. but we don't look favorably of people who shop online but sometimes the convenience, you need to grab things once in a while. it is the special items you can touch and feel and the experiences you can have with your family. >> i'm bullish on the alpaca wool. thank you for joining us. we know you have a busy day there. appreciate you being here. >> happy holidays to all of you. thank you. >> you too.
malls did used to be the hangout spot for teenagers, but many of their social interactions have moved online these days. how does it fare for large shopping complexes and their landlords. thank you for coming down. the question is what strategies are malls using to adjust in this amazon world? >> i think the big buzzword is really experiential, malls are having to drive traffic by offering other attractions whether it is in the form of dining, you can look at what the american dream mall is trying to do by offering a water park and amusement park, and indoor ski slope. in some cases it is a little more dramatic, but i think the old aspect of just offering a food court and just having plain have nil why stovanilla stores working. >> there is a debate about whether you should own the real estate operators which had -- just got their own sector.
>> exactly. real estate stocks got their own sector. this is the retail read stock. that's the average return in this holiday season. the issue they have been very weak, but only because interest rates are going up. it is interesting how those companies have been a little more resilient than you might have expected and people say, well, department stores, anchor stores are going away, they don't really -- they're not the big rent payers. i think ultimately traffic is what is going to drive these stocks as well as the retail performers. >> what is so interesting about that is there is -- most people shop on the basis of price. that's what -- so if you're a mall operator, you can't really compete on price, because you can always get it cheaper online, unless it is something super unique. you can't replace the experience. but certainly most of my mall experiences are replaceable. i don't find that to be something -- >> spoken like a true dad. >> i'm not going to destination mall. maybe if you live -- i'm about to insult the people in
minnesota, maybe if i live in minnesota -- >> i hear what you're saying. >> you need a reason to go there. >> you bring up the point about competing on price. today the journal had this whole feature about how some department stores were going 1999 for a pair of rampage boots and that's what they have to do to get people interested and want to make sure they can't be undercut on price. how is that affecting the mix of being able to draw people into the stores versus going online? >> so it is a double edged sword because as you're cutting prices, you're going to have to increase the quantity sold in order to raise your same store sales. i think that's been really problematic. in some cases retailers are offering goods that can only be bought in the stores, rather than online. so they're trying to find new ways to get people into the stores by offering them something they can't find online. >> what about you when you're shopping? >> talk to me after i head out this afternoon. >> are you going to? >> i might brave the elements.
>> is that -- analysis or is that because you want to buy stuff? >> a little both. consider it market research. >> there is a bit of conventional wisdom, a bunch of second tier malls or older malls might go by the way side, but there is also this rejuvenation of the bigger strip centers, t.j. maxx and you want to be not enclosed. is that going to save the industry? it is not experiential. >> it isn't. but if it is open doors rather than being enclosed, perhaps there is more scope to increase the offerings. i think the jury is still out a little bit. but there is some concern that the era of the mall, you know, maybe on the decline. >> t.j. maxx can be experiential. have you seen the snacks they have in there. >> everyone has their own preferred experiences. >> you also go to costco to get the free sausages or -- you don't do that? >> the meatballs at eikea. >> what does a mall look like 30 years from now?
do they have to be destination malls? it is hard to imagine it is going to get kids so excited, especially when they can sit in their comfort of their bed with the virtual reality mask on and go to the mall. >> a lot of it is going to be enhanced technology that is going to supplant some of the existing store models today, whether it is technology that enables you to summon somebody from the dressing room or show you what a different color, different outfit might look like. these are all technologies that will have to come to the forefront in order to continue to drive traffic. >> we shall see. heidi, thanks for joining us. appreciate it. good luck this afternoon. heidi lerner. millions of americans are hitting the road and taking to the skies over this holiday. what it means for some of the transportation stocks on a tear since the election. while shoppers are hitting black friday sales, the ultra wealthy are turning to the rock report for their christmas presents. from jewels, you can see there, to private jets to motorcycles, the hottest luxury gifts this
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welcome back. we have a lot coming at us next week including the jobs report. i wonder how this market will react. >> it seems like the stakes are pretty low. you have to see a negative number to derail the idea of a december fed rate hike. maybe there is not a lot of drama associated with it. i'll be interested to see how the president-elect might respond to it. every single jobs number middle, bad or good -- >> last one was quite poor. >> taken to describing as part of this crisis with the labor market in america under obama. maybe if the tune changes, how that is massaged will be interesting. >> i think managing expectations will be tricky over the next few months. you got 4.9% unemployment, low inflation, low -- >> you've been saying it is awful. >> america is horrible! >> it is going to be interesting. >> very interesting. >> in the meantime, millions of americans are traveling via planes, trains and automobiles this thanksgiving weekend. phil lebeau joins us from chicago with more.
how does it look out there, phil? >> not too bad today. it has definitely increased as date has gone along. pretty quiet on the tristate earlier today. but it has increased since then. we thought it would be interesting to find out what is the top destination for a lot of people. and we talked with the folks at waze, owned by google. look at this data, in terms of the top destinations people are calling in to waze and saying show met quickest way there, you see costco there, under the department store, number one search there. bed, bath & beyond. and mcdonald's, walmart is the overall number one destination that is being searched for on waze with an increase of 85% compared to a normal friday. but when you look at the data, look at sunday. look at the increases that they're expecting in terms of traffic jams up 240%. and then accidents, alerts that people are putting out as they're saying, look, there is an accident up ahead on the road
or on the highway, up 100%. just a bit of a preview of what to expect on sunday for a lot of people who will be driving home after the thanksgiving weekend. kelly, one quick update, because we had a few people who have asked what is going on with the lufthansa strike, this is impacting people flying over to europe, but they put out an update saying it expects over 90% of its flights tomorrow to take place. and we know that there is a pilot strike going on there. we'll see if that happens. a lot of people right now pretty frustrated flying with lufthansa. >> i can imagine. also interesting just to think about what is happening on the roadways. in a way we know accidents are up, we know it is more dang russ out there. you wonder does it get worse or are people cognizant of -- it has gotten more dangerous? >> exactly. the weird trends of long-term autonomous driving is to put the industry out of business.
>> it is worse for them because they're -- a lot of them have been making money on the investment side of this, not the underwriting side and now look at the investment side. >> what is so interesting and phil touched on it, what is going on with waze, now there is so much more information available to drivers, you know. my wife who happens to work at google, showing me an application, they can tell you what the lines are like at individual stores when you put in the -- the amount of information now available to shoppers, to people traveling, is so much better than it was even five or ten years ago that it has to lead to the improvement of people's lives. >> before we let you go, in terms of the roadway, do you see the same thing playing out? we know people are so distracted out there. >> yes. anybody will tell you in the auto industry, as much as people want more information when they're driving, if you have a distracted driver in terms of getting information from their cell phone or if it is coming in
through the navigation screen, it is the mind that is causing problems when they're distracted, not the device by itself. >> the mushy middle between now and our driverless car future. thank you for staying with us. appreciate it. some of the best performers in the transport sector, airlines, united continental up 18%. jetblue up 15%. maybe a buffett effect in there too. >> little buffett effect, maybe of, hey, these are cyclical companies, it is looking brighter. they're asking for help on a trump administration on competitive things too. >> avis budget group up there. christmas is 30 days away. the rob report has presents for the people who have been extra nice this year. we'll look at their ultimate gift ideas including a $90,000 motorcycle and that little gem when we come back.
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if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. welcome back. how about your ultimate shopping list? we're outside here with some ultimate gifts for the ultra wealthy with david arnold from the rob report. people are looking to you for
advice on this gem we have here, which evan is so nicely holding for us. >> taking it back for my wife. >> and this motorcycle. welcome, please tell us about these. >> this is our 40th anniversary. we always pick the ultimate gifts. we start with a wonderful 52 carat tanzanite, an item that was mined in 1976. >> looks like a sapphire. >> it is a tanzanite. this would look wonderful on you. and the -- we have actually arranged with david yurman, america's foremost jewelry designer, that you can spend the day with david and you can create a custom piece of jewelry, working with david, spend the day with him, have lunch with him, work through his are akifz a archives. >> how much will this cost? >> depending how elaborate you get, i sense you would get very elaborate, it would start around $50,000, but the sky is the limit. >> let's up that down before we drop it.
>> what about this motorcycle? >> this is an example of -- this is the revival motorcycle company. they create collaborations with individuals. this is a very, very you nik proposition, this is a sculpture, but it is also a working motorcycle. you can take this out to the racetrack, you can ride this, so what is important to understand is that this again is a collaboration process. you can spend about six months. >> a replica of what? >> a replica of something that was created by bmw. this is about a $90,000 investment. but this is a one of a kind item. so, again, if you have a passion for motorcycles and want to create -- >> looks like you would be so hunched over trying to sit and ride on it. >> the speed would keep you upright. but if you have a passion for motorcycles and sculptures is something you enjoy -- >> it is beautiful. >> extraordinary. one of a kind item. >> something you touched on a little bit, experiences, that's becoming more and more important, is that a challenge for you? >> it isn't. i think what has happened over the last six or seven years is the notion of acquiring more
stuff is less interesting for people, it is about acquiring experiences. >> what would be one example of a megaexperience to give to somebody? >> what we have is a perfect question, car of the year, an event we do every year, where people come out to napa, they drive the 13 new luxury cars we have assembled coming out the following year. that's our last item where you can get 23 of your friends come out to napa valley. >> 23? >> 23. start having dinner with thomas keller. the following day you did a wine tour, we take you to wineries you wouldn't get into. you spend the next day driving the 13 luxury cars coming out the following day and become judges in our car of the year issue. >> that sounds look a closing bell team trip this year. >> we could probably squeeze you in there. >> no problem there. >> you can wear your new jewelry. >> what does something like that cost? >> that particular item, it is equivalent to you taking your
friends to the -- and chartering a yacht. >> mega is the answer. thank you. thank you as well on this black friday. don't go out of here with that. that's it for us here on this [tires screeching] >> flags are up. [screaming] >> hi, i'm jay leno. all: hi, jay. >> hi, everybody. how you doing? and this is a show about cars. it's fun to drive cars that are really different. >> this one's a death trap. >> oh, i see, because-- >> because it's dangerous to ride. >> and motorcycles, and well, anything that rolls... like driving a two-story building. oh, my god, strong as an ox! explodes... i love the smell of napalm in theorning. yeah! or makes noise. >> you ever run a dragster? >> no, i haven't. [engine revving] this is "jay leno's garage." >> start your engine. [waili