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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 8, 2017 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

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his activity and, that go broader than just ceo of facebook. >> these are often trophies about globalization and the future, but he says this time will probably stand in the international contrast. >> and. watch oil and watch the ten-year up for eight strike days. let's get up to post 9. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm tom wapner. stocks rallying to record highs since election day, but have they gone too far? some starting to think so, but not one of the greatest investors of any era, who says the trump rally is not even over. with us stevenwise, it will livan than, josh brown, jon najarian. carl icahn telling cnn last night the market has run ahead of itself, white david tepper
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saying he would say long. >> we're bedding on a stronger economy mere. okay? that's the bet. we're betting on strength one way or another here the strength around the world. the day you had the three houses won, that was the day that was not going to be another regulation. people say people are holding back because of uncertainty. that's bull -- i haven't been negative about the stock markets. i was a bit nervous about potential earlier this year about trade friction with china, but i think they have gone past that in this administration. so tepper says market isn't cheap. you get the french elections out of the way and other stuff. not in the way until the market stars focusing, he's like wake me up when the ten-year hits 4%. then you have eye sawn, who says
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a little cautious. who's right? >> why don't we split the difference and say it's a good idea to be somewhat cautious, but to respect trend. we're in a secular bull market that started in the spring of 2013 when we took out the double top from '07 and 2000. quite frankly people have been talking about long in the tooth, too far too fast for the better part of seven years. the secular bull from '82 to 2000, 18 years, 1350%. we're you have somebody 200%. so by any measure -- go back and look at 42 to 66, another comp want bull maeshl up 970%. the trend is up. i think we can all agree, the biggest best companies in america, the stocks are within all-time hims. go down the list. so to say this is it, this is the end, it's very arbitrary, it
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doesn't work. it's cost people a ton of money. let's not play that game. >> i don't think icahn is saying the sky is falling, but maybe i'm more hedged than i wish i was, i put a billion on the table, i wish i had done more. i would have made more, and dave says, look, the backdrop is pretty good for this mark and equities to continue to glo higher, if you look economically at some of the proposals on the table from the administration. >> what dave is focusing on is synchronized globally improving economy. if you look at the perspective that each investor has, carl akahn may talked about distressed valuation, but rarely talks macro. that's what dave does. he looks across seat classes, looking 'cross geographies, and money is a relative game. he's say bonds are way too expensive, particularly
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sovereigns, tiparticularly bund and saying relative to that when you look at what draghi has to do, he's got to get off qe. when he does, it's a positive message. he's looking at it as the glass half full, keeping in mind that the markets are not very cheap, but not expensive yet. with everything that is going on, with the relative value or lack of value in credit, equities are the place to be. so i think it's a very measured response, i don't think it's tremendously dissimilar from what carl is saying, a different perspective. he's worried about the level, but that type of the wall of worry, we've heard jeff gunlock -- >> how could you not be worried or cautious? you have to be. it's a data point in terms of your perspective, with dave,
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with $17 billion, you can't get in and out. you have to have the conviction of going in. he's not only the best investor, he's also the best risk manager i have ever seen. if his mind changes, he's not going to get emotionally attached to something. he's going to say, you know what? i'm stepping back. he perspective is i have to take advantage of it. the wars far outweighs the risk. >> so jimmy, the takeaway, is it time to continue to put money into this market? we've been debating whether investors were going to get an opportunity because of a pullback. tepper leads you to believe that you don't necessarily need to wait for a pullback to get involved in the market, because it could go higher. >> he's right. if you get a pullback and you have cash, great. two things to say here, don't try to time a correction. if carl icahn wants to do it, god bless him, he has some skills that he might do it
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successfully. for the average investor, don't try to time it. do not worry about interest rates right now. we're going to start wringing our hands will, the press will, when the ten-year goes above 260. don't do it. don't worry about it. tepper says wake me up when it gets on 4. >> he's exactly right. any thought process that the fed wants to killing this rally or expansion is as wrong as wrong can be, if it raises rates too fast, they'll back off quickly. dave walk talking about having that perspective, not always been in the market. if you go back to what it used to be on fed funds, 3% to 5% was neutral of over 5% was restrictive. below 3% was terribly accommodative. >> because we had to have positive real rates. >> you have a 1.3% to gdp rate
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this quarter and we're worried about four rate hikes? that isn't happening. >> does tepper force you, doc to maybe take a step back and rethink where the market is, not to view it through the prism of 21,000 and say, well, the back drop is opportunistic enough that you can get involved here? >> yeah. i agree with david tepper. we'll see whether or not we get an explosion in the up side of interest rates, or whether we, as i believe, that we are anchored to what's happening over there. the volatility overseas is 30% or more higher than it is here. that's because they can't just roll back regs like we can, because of the european union. it will be much harder and draghi is unlikely to make any moves, even though i agree with the gentleman, that we're not prior to see any moves made prior to the elections.
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we make a move here, the markets react or don't, and i think they don't react to that move next week out of the fed, and i think we stay roughly -- i don't even know if we violate the 260 to the up side. >> the wild card is the agenda. you were going to say the fed? >> for december -- i'm sore, for the ten-year, i don't think 260, i don't think we get above that. >> the wild card is the trump agenda, right? we've auld placed our bets, pushed the chips into the table, believe we're going to get the good hand. we put our chips in. now the dealer has to give us the cards we need. what happens if we don't get them -- >> you're right to ask the question, but here's what could happen even if you don't get the agenda through. adp report, we'll see on friday how that tracks with the actual employment numbers, but realize what's the tail and what's the dog. aggregate demand will come from
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a strong labor market here in the u.s. that's where spendling will come from, that's where investment will come from, and we're getting it in advance of the agenda. we're getting it now. >> incidentally we won't have regulations and not a national minimum wage debate anymore, but i think 17 states did it themselves and i think it took effect in january. you're seeing a rebirth of appetites at the consumer level at levels other than the luxury consumer. that's, i agree with jim, that's why ear going to be better and better economic data, even if it doesn't necessarily show up. >> do i want to stay long materials? industries? >> tech, industrial and financial. so long as that remains the case, that's supportive of a bull market. that's what should historically continue to lead. >> that's a really good question. selective in those sectors
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within the sectors. financials, i still think have a lot of room to go, particularly if draghi does cut back the, because they're in the penalty box in terms of negative rates. in terms of the others, i do think there's some play there, but i think you have to be selective in what you're doing. we've had this tide that's lifted all ships, and at some point we've see divergence into returns, and they'll makes decision which will go higher. >> advanced decline on the new york stock exchange composite is starting to fall, and the new lows list is very subdued, so to steven's point, there is some operation between winners and losers. again, not a lot, not like what we have seen in historic markets, but not quite the etf free for all. >> and also to your point, though, to your question earlier, you need to know what's going to move them. that is agenda driven.
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if you're going to invest there, you are counting on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, so know why you're investing in each sector. >> i like what i saw this morning out of the adp, judge. how do you not like that? every single sector was up. >> it's been a blowout. >> this was phenomenal. i asked steve liesman, what was the best effort, he says february of '06. it shows the sort of momentum that's built behind and why mark cuban is so prong, was the animals spirits that are bottled up for eight years are loose. >> it's the push-pull of the trump presidency as it relates to the market. you look at the number since he was sworn in, you would have no reason to be worrisome or cautious. it's the other stuff. >> that should change this year.
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so that's exactly right. we've talked about this before. looking at the market as investors, rather looking at it as a political football, and the other stuff that's going on, we know where dave stands, right? because when he came on cnbc before the election, so we know where he stands. he gave some hints of it today. basically he's say i'm an investor, sure i'd like them to tighten it up in d.c., but you have to look at the fundamentals and what the policies are. i like what i see. >> like the noise be damned. focus on the agenda that's coming, the fact that the economic -- >> but let me -- >> maybe it isn't to a point. >> we're going to test that theory, something tells me we're going to test that theory sometimes this period. >> what if we don't get the policy? now tax is put off until august. if the economy does continue to accelerate, we see the consumer-driven growth, the jobs, everything we've talked
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about. that would become less important. i was going to say, that gives you more cushion. >> you can see what's going on. if there's trouble, trump or ryan will come out and say, talking about no regulation, has driven the market, driven the economy, so make we can dial back. >> not really, though. >> well, there it is. the sectors year to date. next up, the individual stocks david tepper likes and doesn't like. there are some surprises. >> announcer: david tepper saying today he's long stocks, our partners for producing a special screen on top performers when stocks and bond yields rise
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david tepper on "squawk box" this morning. >> they stocks go fairly cheaper. probably trimmed a bit.
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it looks pretty cheap right now. i go back and forth on -- some days, and some days i don't know why the heck i look at it. listen it was not the best position we took. what we thought about snap, we like places in tech where we think the competition is not as high. >> so jim, let's start with apple. this is ra different story than it was 9 on or $100. i can't pound the table and say it's cheap, but i own it and i'm not going to sell it. >> the pry tag or the valuation? >> it's not cheap, either. there was a period of time back at $100 like four, five months ago, where this thing was trading when you strip out the cash. don't give me a hard time about
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that. right now it's mid teens. you know what? it's got good growth rate. i don't think it justifies a higher multiple, but i'll keep it for the potential that the iphone 8 is a knockout. >> tepper says i'm a believer. that's sort of nowhere land. >> but he likes it, right? that stock has gotten no love on this desk whatsoever. doc flip it right away, now because he liked it, but likes making money. this is a guessing game right now, trading for lest than five days. there's almost no volume. it's not high convention volume, just lack of sellers. >> did tepper reset the narrative? because there were way too many
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unknown as, and unlike facebook, because they do, maybe they went public a year late. that has not been good for twitter. when he ran into that wall 26s atrough from there on hout. how did they solve it? they bought instagram. snapchat has money and could do some deals, but i think some of the deals are out of their reach already. here's the reality. there's a company doing -- still managed to lose money, probably will lose money this year and next year if you believe what they themselves told you, and so it's a guessing game. are there going to be animal spirits surrounding people wanting to be -- >> tepper basically told you himself today that if the stock goes lower to a -- he'd like to buy more. >> i hope he does. i want this thing to work. i'm telling you why i'm on the sidelines here, because it's an
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enormous leap of faith to give this company the valuation without any prospect of making money. the street might look past that in ad dollars come in at a faster rate. the street might say we don't care, because they're building the company. that might be good enough. i'm not in the mood to make that bet. >> when go-property is saying we're going to be at youtube -- >> we're a media company. >> we get that media onto youtu youtube, how did that work out? they're making the same kind of claim. >> that's almost apples and oranges. you're talking about a device company, and a software company. >> what did they just become? a device company with those dumb glasses. >> how many hours a day do you spent on snapchat? two? three? >> sometimes 10, 12 the entire day. >> you bought it because it's defensible, because nobody can sell for a year -- i mean of the
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insiders. that's why dave bought it. >> he bought it for the reason he buys everything. if you look at the numbers. i don't know anything about his position, i was surprised he mentioned it, if you look at the volume of the trade in the mark and what dave said about his amount un and the other names, this is curiosity for him, all right? this is not going to move the needle either way. he can't possibly get big enough in it, okay, for it to matter unless the stock doubles from here. so for him, i would doubt that he's put this -- i don't know, i don't know anything more than you guys well, maybe more than you, jim. [ laughter ] sorry. but he's not going to put the same amount of work in this that
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he would into one of his bigger holdings. >> allergan, trimmed a little, wyche, you have a take on this? >> yeah, if you pay attention to when he got involved. he got involved in almost the exact right time, it's liquid enough for him to be involved in. he's exactly right. when stocks go up in the size of the portfolio, you have to trim back. >> from 190 to 240 in about three months, which means it's time to buy and for it to go down. >> there you go. >> it was almost like he was having a battleground in his own mind over teva. >> it's a 50 cents or a buck off the 52 week low, whether you said to saw that i a bu-- or another big fund gave up on it.
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highlands is not bosch but i don't think anybody is happy holding this. they're hoping generics don't get hit as hard as the rest of trump is focused on. you have a thought on teva? >> take a look. he made a sector call on if it works great, if it does that, they're downsized de minimus. >> we asked the question, should you follow somebody in? i would say no, because -- i don't know -- >> it doesn't sound like a strong commitment to it. >> that's how sausage is made, unfortunately. some of the best guys feel strongly one day, you read the story about drecken miller and soros, sometimes my back hurts
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and i change my mind. that's a tough game for people at home to keep up with. an explosive story on caterpillar. that stock is down about 4% after last week's raid at headquarters by federal authorities. jon najarian using options activity more "halftime report" is coming up. is happening before our eyes. shift in human history sixty to seventy million people are moving to cities every year.
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a market alert on oil. inventories came in about a half hour ago. >> it's been some a range to 50 to 50 to 55 for a long time. i've been saying for a long time shale oil producers have been going crazy. that's why you see inventories up and the price going down. it's going to continue. >> for those of you getting into some oil names, we discussed them this week. we have big interviews this week from sara down in houston. >> we had a nice pop out of capital oil and gas, i believe, a nice pop today, but i think there's a line in the sand right
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away that $51 level. we're nearing back to the largest rig count are counts and the largest production, because the rigs have gotten more efficient. they're going to keep pumps. >> if oil goes through 50, you've got a problem? >> yeah, it bounced pretty hard. >> i think if it goes below 50 and stays there, then you get the narrative, is this a sign of economic weakness, which i don't think it is. >> hit the junk bonds again, right. but this points out how a wash is 10% is the world is liquidity. sure some of necessary companies went out, but overall you had so much lending, that they were able to keep going. the narrative there is that it doesn't matter what opec does, they do not control the price of
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oil. >> hey, jackie. >> good morning, it's interesting here, you can see it's more than a 3% spike down in crude oil prices. digging into this, the traders are bringing up the production numbers, well over 9 million barrels a day here. that is a problem, as we start to increase. my question to you, jeff kill burg, is it all about the supply numbe numbers? >> i think it is, short term, jackie. a coupleiers, a 33% move was a walk in the park. this is a big deal thing. the range-bound crude oil environment, but right now i think you're flushing a lot of weak longs, but let's keep front and center the aramco deal. a very important move forward
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it's a buying opportunity. >> brian, earlier i pointed out that you looked at the one-month chart, crude was actually flat. is this the charge of a breakout it crashed through that. now to see it trade down, around that $51 level. so i think it's time to step in. the guys have talked about the $50 left. i heard rumors circulating that the opecs secretary met with a whole bunch of shale producers, and obviously some discussion about how we control the prices, so certainly those are key levels to look, and maybe step in. i look to be a buyer. >> yeah, i did hear that there was a presser late in the evening where they all got together. you had all the big players. there really wasn't much of a consensus, telling that side of the story.
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tough to say at this point. we're going to come to with the online show 1:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow. scott, back to you. jon najarian is at the telestrator with what is moving at the options -- >> a lot of the semiconductors have been the focus of many of us on the desk, intel, one that pete loves and that's $4 higher. they bought these 39 calls in big numbers. >> so i met them, i probably -- like the up side here for this particular stock, even though like i say, down about 12 to 16 cents today. cap pillar facing explosive
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new allegations. with one goal in one -- to keep its stop price going up. "new york times" breaking the story after fed agencies raided the headquarters. you say this was a report commissioned by the government, and done by a -- at the dartmouth business school? >> billions offshore, the subsidiaries, as a way to avoice u.s. tax. as long as the money remains offshore. when you bring the money back to the u.s., you're supposed to pay takes on it. the professors's bringses brill
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onof dallas back to the u.s., for tax purposeses in its financials. the professor is a -- i'm quoting -- i believe the company's noncompliance was deliberate and primary with the intention of maintaining a higher share price. the actions were fraudulent rather than negligence gent it's also rare that a large multinational of this scale would be accused of such a fraud. >> yeah, the thing that's surprising is big multinationals don't into disputes and you have time. is but to accuse the company of
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tax fraud, to rice to the is very unusual, but for the most part, those disputes remain civil matters. the new ceo said he was surprised by the raid that happened last week doug overhell men, this all would have occurred under his last watched, wouldn't it? where does he figure if all of this? this has taking plain. one thing i did want to add is it's actually sort of unclear what the investigators are
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looking at because the inspector general's office was involved, the -- so they're probably are issues, banking issues, do not just tax issues, it certainly appears to be broader than the tax issues that were identified. it's not a report that's been made a public, and reported it, correct? >> thanks for coming on today. >> thanks for having me. i think the most scathing part about this professor's report the actions were fraudulent rather than negligent.
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>> thee really pay a fine, the stock price maybe hiccups and life goes on. >> if there ever was a teflon stoke over the last year, this is the one. >> the last few years. >> eye are i'm wondering if this changes the narrative. >> and justifiably they hate it. i don't know if it's true. i know we did raise this issue, maybe not this specific one, but a couple, with jim chenos, the noted short seller has been short this name for a number of years. in the u.s., they didn't collapse where you they they would, but in the leverages.
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>> what's being asserted is so, unlike other companies caterpillar came up with a way to take this money sitting at a swiss subsidiary, and repatriated, not paid the taxes. the bottom line is -- we don't have to cuss the ins and outs. stephanie link, who owns the stock, not relative to these specific allegation. you north they're going to pay a fine, and no one -- >> stephanie has no way of knowing that. if this goes on for years. >> you don't think that's a risk? >> no, i don't. it's a risk d. the big risk is a
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criminal filing against then. >> we don't know what happens. >> if they have to restate and the restatement is significant, and news for so many years, to your point, if they put the penalty back, their business levels go down dramatically. i just don't think there's niche down side to get involved. >> i agree. >> i agree with that, too. >> these are allegations, accusations made. we reached out to caterpillar for comment on this specific story and we have not yet matter back. what is it? we are going to let you know, and then we're going to debate it. it's our "call of the day" and it's coming up.
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welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera. here's what's happening. a federal investigation is under way in mississippi after a deadly crash involving a freight train, at least forepeople were over wright crews move that wreckage from the screen. >> as to stand up as democrats, to make sure that we are putting our values first, and one of the basic values is health care is a right, not a privilege. it shoop be a privilege only for the wealthy. that's what the republicans are trying to do.
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>> unfortunately the car is not available for prospective buyers to buy. down to brian sullivan. you would like good in that car. >> we both would. just screwsing in a -- >> you got it. >> go figure. either way, coming up, we're going to continue to ask some of the top executives in oil and gas whether they are going to create jobs. >> that will start to grow, and yes, the keystone -- the canadian natural resource minister is here, for a rare interview with cnbc. also peter theel last night say we're in a bull market for politics. a lot more to do.
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♪ is . welcome back to the "halftime report." i'm seema mody. a week before the fed meeting and what many analysts think
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will be a rate hike, our partners at kensho say health care has been the best performing sectors during a rate hike cycle since 1994. we've been in this position 33 times, the second top performer is financials, followed by energy, up 1%, the s&p 500 up a 0.8% in the week before a fed decision in a rate hike cycle. now back to scott. who says you can't make money when the fed hikes rates. >> the gang here is looking to do that. . where do you want to do it? obvious places, the financials. >> you've seen some ease decently, and i think that's wrong. it's regs and taxes as well as these rates. those three i think are significant drivers. >> there's your performance year to date by the s&p 500 sectors.
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wyche, tech, leading the way. what's your sector play? you want to get ahead of it, not after it. >> i still like financials. they're having a great day today, i think partly due to dave's comments today, or in large part due to dave's comments, but this rate hike will not be a surprise to anybody. so i like the health care call still going, a little defensive, and i think there's more to come there. i think keep your playbook that you were doing before, because i think the market continue toss go through it. >> when you look past at the financials and health cares, i look at companies with cash-rich balance sheets they can use to pay down debt. i would want to stay away from indebted companies, so i look at appearing, cisco. company with his high cash balances. they're going to get more big on that, that may help. >> somewhat contrarian. i would fade whatever the mark becomes really, really short of.
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u.s. real estate etf has been absolutely hammered when it became apparent that a fed hike in march is a slam dump. watch that particular etf right after. if you see an overreaction, they get this thing down to a 4% yield. >> how come no one said visa, am ex -- >> we've been in love with these names for year. am ex and goldman are some of the about -- -- two of the top former are those two stocks. >> how about cme where the rate trade takes place? >> you want to avoid utilities, avoid the high-yielding stocks. we'll be right back.
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>> shares of adidas, hitting aber an all-time today after giving ambitious guidance. a buy rating on the stock. upped the price target moments ago. erin, nice to talk to you today. >> thanks for having me on. >> is this your top name right now in the space or no? >> yes. this is one of our two top names. it's adidas and coach. we continue to like this brand behind the athletic space. >> speak directly to adidas. why allow like it so much? >> a couple of things underpinning growth here.
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you have resurging brand momentum. it's not just about the retro sneakers you're seeing right now. they've done a tremendous amount of innovation behind performance, which we think will be the longer-term driver and shares in america outpacing that of its peers. against a growing athletic category we think adidas is the game to play. >> more broad ly, let me ask yo, i've heard some suggestions in recent days that nike is, quote, unquote, back. do you agree with that statement? >> we don't, actually, at this point. we think the brand is still very much intact. but we do think that they are still lacking from an innovation perspective. they do have some things in the pipeline for the back half of 2016. we'll have to see how those shake off. in monitoring the near term, we think the adidas momentum today and what they're specifically speaking to in north america really means that the retailers
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are collaborating behind adi more than they are for nike. we think it will take more futures. >> what kind of price target do you have on nke? >> on nke, we've got a $51 price target. assuming it trades 21 times. >> 10% lower, maybe a little less than that. when is the pain going to stop for under armour shares? >> it's a fair question. when you think about the longer term of the under armour brand, historically, really the growth -- if you're a bull on it it was coming from the international markets. the concern that we have today is that you've got adi, the number two brand in the category, really reaction el rating not only in north america, but abroad and that could potentially cap the potential near term or intermediate term growth for under armour.
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then focus on the home turf, nike isn't going away. it's just in a little bit of a pause. but it's a big brand from a dollar perspective. between nike and adidas, it crowds out the potential for under armour. it's way too soon to be looking at that name. and it's trading at 48 times earnings. >> erinn, thank you so much. piper's erinn murphy. >> you have been over adidas many, many months. >> i love adidas. they're killing it in lifestyle. josh knows because he's of that lifestyle. that is driving younger folks into this company rather than the alternatives. >> we had a suggestion the other day nike was back and there was agreement on the desk. >> most of us have been in the name. you're in the name. i am as well i wouldn't mind a 10% discount to pick up the other half. it's a great company.
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21 times earnings is actually cheap for this name. 25 is what it should trade at. >> we'll take a quick break and do final trades when we come back.
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various: (shouting) heigh! ho! ( ♪ ) it's off to work we go! woman: on the gulf coast, new exxonmobil projects are expected to create over 45,000 jobs. and each job created by the energy industry supports two others in the community. altogether, the industry supports over 9 million jobs nationwide. these are jobs that natural gas is helping make happen, all while reducing america's emissions. energy lives here. all while reducing america's emissions. what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic.
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you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water. we are back. shares of skyworks soaring up 30% year to date and mizuho says there's still time to buy it. upgrade today, .75 of 1%. it's our call of the day. apple supplier.
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feet li pete likes it. doc, to you? >> pete likes it. i'm out of t i wish i had it on this 28% run. but i'll take another look. >> start us off today. >> atk, one that i've been on for a while but elbit systems, israeli munitions company, electronic defense company, and under the radar name you should look at right now. >> jimmy? >> we talked about it earlier. oil breaks below $50. >> josh? >> to reiterate on cat, it's too soon to know what's going on. i would avoid it. >> doc? >> bcrx, exploding to the upside. watch it. deal news on the desk as well. you sold your firm, jim. >> yeah. >> or you're selling it. >> exactly, subject to regulatory approval. >> congratulations. >> thanks. great bunch of guys.
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we're really excited about the future. >> are you going back on the farm or are you going to stay on the street? >> we're staying exactly as we are. >> lunch is on jim today, by the way. >> for everybody. >> ceo. >> you're staying a ceo? >> exactly. >> don't bury the lead, jimmy. >> sorry, buddy. >> congratulations. >> we've traipled the last thre years and we're going to do it again. >> "power lunch" starts right now. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera and here is what's on the menu. david pepper says he is all in on america. should you be too? big market question of the day. we'll debate straight ahead. one woman who keeps mr. teper up at night. and it's not janet yellen. brian is live in houston and the camper stocks, they're crushing it. is there a rocky road ahead? get it? buckle up. "power lu


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