tv Squawk Box CNBC March 23, 2017 6:00am-9:01am EDT
it's thursday, march 23, 2017, "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. joining us for the hour, we have steve grasso, a fast money trader and cnbc analyst. welcome. >> thank you. pleasure. such an honor. >> great american. i watch you guys all the time. >> you are up extremely early. i don't know how you guys do this. what do you do, go to bed at:00 at night? >> don't laugh. yes. >> i came straight here. >> you egg me on at times. >> i do. i do.
>> we don't need to dits cuscus things. >> we're on the same page. >> i need you here some other days, when the other guy is sitting there. >> he shut off my commuters. did he do this? this is work from the inside. >> i'll help you get in. >> okay. >> we will. steve is with us for the hour. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures this morning, after the markets ended on a mixed note yesterday, similar story today. yesterday we watched the averages slowly, after some weakness at the open, we'll see things even out. calm trading throughout the day despite the attacks in the uk and despite concerns about whether or not the healthcare reform bill would get passed. the average closed around the session highs. right now dow futures are indicated down by two points. s&p futures indicated up by one. and the nasdaq up by 1 1/2. overnight in asia, the nikkei was up by 0.25%. slightly higher for the hang seng and shanghai composite.
in europe, in the early trade, after everything that we were watching so closely yesterday, the attacks in london, you can see the ftse this morning down by just 0.1%. dax is higher by just over 0.1%. cac is weaker. this morning crude oil prices, we're watching, too. crude settled down 0.4% yesterday. that was the lowest level since late november. picked up a bit of ground this morning. wti up to $48.41 a barrel. fed chair janet yellen will give opening remarks at a conference in washington at 8:45 a.m. eastern. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari is speaking at that event. dallas fed president, rob kaplan, is talking about the economy and monetary policy at a gathering in chicago this evening. as for data, weekly jobless claims at 8:30 eastern, followed
by the february new home sales at 10:00. anti-terrorism officials in the uk have made seven arrests in the investigation to yesterday's terror attack outside parliament. willem marx joins us with more. >> reporter: seven arrests, six addresses across the country in london and birmingham and elsewhere were searched by police last night. 29 injured yesterday. 7 of them still being treated in hospital in critical condition. the attacker came across westminster bridge behind me in speed in a car mowing down pedestrians. one woman was forced into the river thames behind me. he then proceeded on foot having crashed that vehicle inside the parliamentary estate, the grounds around the palace of westminster where he attacked one police officer with a knife that man sadly succumb to his injuries. the attacker shot three times by armed police, at which point the incident
parliament was on lockdown for several hours. last night theresa may speaking publicly saying this was an attack on the center of british democracy. the london mayor here with a defiant tone saying brits will not be cowed by terrorism. >> willem, thank you very much. we appreciate that update. we know that you're watching things closely for us. we will continue to check this out this morning. our thanks to willem. >> been there enough times to be very familiar with that area. >> walking back and forth across that bridge a lot of times. >> right across from big ben, and then you walk up the street -- >> eye of london, the museums are there. >> really -- >> it hits home. >> exactly. our top story in the u.s., republicans scrambling to secure votes for today's healthcare, a vote late last night the white
house reportedly expecting to tweak things. kayla tausche is down there with more. mark meadows, his tone was different. all of a sudden it was we want to work together, we want to get somewhere. that -- i don't know how these negotiations work. maybe it is really you stake out this position to get what you want, pretend you will never budge and maybe it is a negotiating tactic. do you think this passes the day given what happened late yesterday? >> i think it's a guess at this point if the white house and house leadership can make the changes you talked about. you referenced the chairman of the house freedom caucus, the largest group of hold-outs in this whole situation. the chairman of that group last night at various points, he said
they would hopefully get there, he wanted to get to yes. even at one point that they had an agreement in principle. that is not different from the tone he struck throughout the course of the negotiations. but it is quite different from other members of that caucus that he has differed with. at 11:00 p.m. last night, which is an eternity in legislative time, the spokesperson for the group tweeted there is no deal yet. many members still had issues with the text. the white house will keep pitching this. the president and vice president will meet with the house freedom caucus at the white house following a meeting with top staff yesterday. as they move to placate this conservative faction more moderate republicans seem to be defecting. charlie dent of pennsylvania in haven't days said he opposed it. >> if we do something different,
it is hard to do it right. i will be quite blunt with you, two-thirds of this bill is exactly what i think is right. a third has been in negotiation. that's what you get with a compromise. >> that's what you get with a compromise. the market shrugged off a lack of compromise yesterday. but when you look at some of the statements of the 20-some republicans that still oppose this bill, they say things like i cannot support this right now, or in its current form, or at present. it's unclear how far the white house can go to actually move to win them over and what the sticking points are. for each member of congress it seems to be something different. >> we're deep in the weeds here. what i gleaned from what you said, while some of the conservative guys want to lore the benefits that are required, are some of the moderates saying they want to keep those in there? now they're sounding like some of the senators, who you will have another problem with if it
passes here. >> if you push this bill too far to placate the members of the house, the senate will have a really tough time. >> she's talking about in the house there are moderate members. and the other thing, kayla, i don't know why making sort of less requirements in healthcare, i don't know why that violates the byrd rule, it's not budgetary or something? >> i think you're referencing what chuck schumer said yesterday. the republicans promised phase two and three. phase two being what tom price will be doing in terms of making rules, relieving regulatory burdens for the insurance companies and other companies that operate in this space. phase three is what they're calling the robust legislative process. senator schumer tried to argue last night because this is a comprehensive program and reconciliation is one part of it, we should treat this in its entirety and that the senate will put up a fight on that.
it's unclear whether there are claws to that argument but it's something he wanted to put out before the vote. we don't have a cbo score on the change to the bill. it was supposed to come out at some point yesterday, last night. but you could expect criticism if members of the house are expected to vote on something that either has not gotten a fresh cbo score or gets one that comes out right before the vote and they have not really had time to sift through it and figure out what this will cost but have to vote on it any way. >> one thing i wondered about, it sounds like there's a carrot and stick approach with the white house offering carrots to bring more people on board. i've been waiting for the sticks and tweets. is there a point where individual congressmen get pressured from tweets from the white house they may not want to deal with if this doesn't go as planned? >> i think the stick nature was
when the president came to capitol hill on tuesday and threat ened congressman meadows and others who wanted to vote against this saying in essence they would be losing their majority in 20 18 if they chose to vote against this. there are two aspects to this. on one handsome members of the freedom caucus say it's a lose-lose situation. we lose the majority if we vote this down or we lose the majority if we vote this in and it's not popular and people don't like this. on the other hand republicans are saying good luck for the president getting a border wall or a tax reform which i don't support if they go against me on something like this which i can't support idealicall icallo can't support. the president has not been tweeting but found ways to turn the knife. and from what i'm hearing it hasn't necessarily been working. >> you know, he certainly likes to win. i can't imagine if this doesn't
work out. not nice to fool mother nature. there will be hell to pay. the twitter storm will start after that. did cruz have -- ted cruz supposedly had a fancy way of getting around the byrd rule, didn't he? getting what conservatives wanted? that would be amazing if ted cruz came in on a white horse to save this deal for the president, wouldn't it? >> joe, being on capitol hill yesterday, senator cruz was sprinting back and forth between the two chambers. he was in a meeting in one of the house buildings yesterday with the freedom caucus in the afternoon. some reporters tried to ask limb questions afterwards. no dice there. he has been working both sides of this. >> kayla, thank you. don't go to lunch. >> yeah. be ready. >> don't -- >> i'll order pizza or something. >> stare at twhafr whatever -- you millennials yu s use?
iphone, blackberry -- >> no blackberry. >> what do you snap on? >> i have a smartphone, not a dumb phone. it's a smartphone. >> very good. thank you. let's find out how that healthcare bill and trump's other proposed policies could continue playing out in the markets today and beyond. joining us is vinnay panday from ubs wealth management. our guest host is steve grasso. let's talk about this. i was surprised to see how calmly the markets dealt with things yesterday. do you expect that to continue today? >> i think -- first of all, thank you for inviting me here. fundamentally from an investor's point of view, three things matter. first is valuation. that's supportive of the equity as a plus. second is policy, which is what we're talking about.
being supportive across the world, not just the u.s. the third is risk management. the issue that you just raised is basically straddling those last two points i spoke about. i don't think the markets are as concerned about the healthcare proposal directly as they are about what it means for the implementation for -- >> for taxes and beyond. >> yes. and i don't think anyone ma imagined that healthcare would be easy. whether or not he can deliver this in the senate as you were discussing, can he not deliver to his constituents what they need, had is a tax cut? president obama delivered healthcare to 20 million people. those were his constituents. i find it hard to imagine that the tax reform or tax cuts wouldn't be forthcoming. >> i agree. i don't think it's about valuation, i think it's about rotation. we've seen so many people loaded into bonds the last eight years. that transition has to take time
to unwind the bond mo signaposi move into equity position. >> that provides support for equities. >> absolutely. the question is tax reform. to your point, if they go with healthcare light, it seems to me they're looking over healthcare now. they want to do it as part of the reconciliation. >> get it out of the way. >> they don't care if it's light. >> the house freedom caucus does. that's the problem. >> they do but it's a lot of posturing on both sides. but now you're starting to see the innards of the republican party posturing. if we get tax reform and deregulation, this market goes much higher from here. >> so as long as it passes it's okay, even if it doesn't pass and they quickly pivot to tax -- >> if you get a healthcare light, are you going get a tax light? is the corporate tax rate going
from 35 to 25 instead of 25 20? rid 20, and president trump wanted 15. >> 20 or 22%, you think the market continues -- >> the market continues to go higher. i believe markets don't care about valuation now. money is moving into the equity market. that's obvious. >> that's an interesting point. so many things seem to be supporting equity prices and not letting them fall below a certain point. do you agree with that? >> yes. i think valuation does matter. the people who act on value have not been investors. the flows in 2016, they remained until the end of the year into bonds and away from equities. >> and they made a mistake by doing that. if you're still sitting on the sidelines, you missed a lot. >> you have allt lot of money cash, and you are overinvesting.
the spread between corporate bonds and equities, the way we reckon it, was in mid year last year 200 basis points higher than on average the last 30 years. the enormous flows that have come from stock buy backs and corporate events like m&a has more than offset the flows that we expect. so the client base i think is in cash, overinvested in fixed income. >> to becky's point, if this market continues to move higher, and we see tax reform, those people that are in bonds or cash will have to chase the market regardless of valuation. >> an important point about the tax cuts, you're saying it's in the market. bottom up eps expectations have not risen at all in the s&p since the trump election. that's to say the bottom up analysts have not yet pencilled in the certainty or near certainty -- >> is that -- is that something that is good news? it means there's more potential
upside there or is that because -- >> yes. yes. >> you think all signs are pointing towards support for the market? >> that is correct. in response to the horrible events in london, for the market to be so calm in the face of an attack, basically across the street from parliament -- >> knowing these arguments, you were sitting there thinking yesterday, wow, this is a market that has much more support than i had even anticipated. >> it is shrugging off bad news and is embracing the prospect of good news. this goes beyond the u.s. action. even president trump has not tweeted i take credit for the recovery in the world economy. it's fiscal policy, whether it's in japan, china, brexit, canada, now the u.s. >> when you say that, though, when you look at the market and the market rallied on the heels of the election and the market rallied a quick 10%, that was not about the rest of the world.
that was a knee-jerk reaction to the united states. >> agreed. >> i think gdps have been moving higher, now eventually they're moving lower. you can't discredit that with donald trump either, right? >> and anything from here on out, above break even since the leak shun election or down 10% since the win is what prognosticators have said since the election. to their horror, as it went up 14%, they attributed it to global strength, not him, until the first correction. now, that was donald trump. i've watched it happen. it's pro growth -- if you didn't have -- anything above break even -- to people that thought the market would crash on donald trump, if we were break even now with his awful presidency and
this terrible whackosacko, if w break even that would be a win. >> globally, not just the u.s. >> i understand that. >> but it moved 14 -- it moved 14% -- >> agreed. but have you seen -- >> how many days were up days? how many days were down days? you get 1% down, and suddenly -- this is not anything trump is doing. it's people in the house that are not -- >> look at the performance of emerging markets. it's dramatic this year. >> that was also a knee-jerk reaction. if the u.s. does better, emerging markets do better, they fear the rising dollar, we didn't see that. they fear rising rates, they didn't see that. those were a bunch of rebound effects. >> i would stress strongly it's a global growth story. watch out for global growth. >> but global growth is coming in a bit now. if that's the case, then the markets maybe don't have a rosy
future. >> what we had for the past eight years, we had qe and zero on interest rates. this is in the face of rising rates. was there a single rate increase during the last eight years of the obama administration? not a single rate increase. we've already gotten two. >> thank you for being with us. steve will be with us for the rest of the hour. coming up, trucking companies are hoping that trump deregulation will give their industry a boost. we'll look at the possible changes and how it could move the company's stocks next.
the trucking industry is one area of the transport economy that is looking for deregulation. morgan brennan joins us now from the swamps of new jersey. i take issue with that. what are we calling the swamps of new jersey? >> we're at a truck stop in central new jersey. there are a lot of folks here resting overnight. that's part of the regulations. trucking is in focus today with president trump meeting with
ceos and drivers this afternoon to talk healthcare. the industry is the biggest employer in 29 states, including 3.5 million drivers hauling 10.5 billion tons of freight a year. this is highly regulated and there are a truckload of rules that carriers would like to see scrapped or tweaked. one example is the epa's emissions standards. >> we had four engine mandates since 2004. since that time my truck prices have doubled. so the industry has been in a very tough position the last few years from a profitability standpoint because our costs have been rising much faster than what our pricing has been able to rise. >> so parker and other truck executives would like to see the age requirement to move freight across state lines lowered from 21. they say that would help ease the driver shortage. but all of that said companies
still wanted a couple pieces of sweeping regulation to stay put including the electronic logging device mandate that goes into effect later this year that tracks hours. i would expect this to come up later today with the president, stricter or better testing methods for drug screening of drivers. >> that's good to hear. you can understand why they want to push back on some regulations. i was wondering about the hours that drivers drive and some of those regulations, making sure the drug screening is there. makes sense. you will see the rollback of some of these regulations, you can guess. >> exactly. >> thank you very much for joining us. >> morgan, did you come up with that trucking music? did you suggest that? that was -- who would have come up with that? did you come up with that? >> your fabulous producers for the show that is "squawk box" did that. but it is nifty. i'm trying not to dance right now. ♪ >> joe's favorite. >> i would have done something
about a truck or i drive my dad's truck -- i would have -- you know. >> 18 wheels and a dozen roses? >> we do an airline theme, we do big old jet airliner. >> joe has been here a while. >> yeah. >> he's heard these before. >> 18 wheels and a dozen roses. >> crude realities. >> morgan, thank you. enjoy the swamps. when we come back, it's crunch time for the republican healthcare bill. leadership scrambling to secure enough votes for passage. an update on the last-minute offer from the white house is next. as we head to break, let's look at the s&p 500 winners and losers.
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♪ welcome back. you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box." we've been talking about the healthcare plan, whether or not it goes through today and that vote in the house. also keeping an eye on the u.s. equity futures which at this point seems to be trading around the flat line. s&p futures slightly higher. dow futures down by 10 points. the nasdaq down by 4 points. mylan is recalling about 81,000
epipens outside the united states. following two reports of the allergy shot failing to work in emergencies. the recall affects devices distributed in australia, new zealand, europe and japan. the company says it should not impact those released in the united states. five below reporting earnings, revenue and same-store sales in line with expectations. the discount retailer will open about 100 new stores this year, including locations in california. that stock up by better than 8.5%. pvh beating the street on top and bottom lines. the parent company of tommy hilfiger and calvin klein offering upbeat guidance and increasing its buyback. >> a few other stocks to watch this morning. cintas earnings coming in slightly above expectations. revenue in line. cincinnati company, and i was trying to change lanes yesterday -- i needed to get in a lane. a big cinsat truck, he made it a
point to not let me. i got so mad, i'm like i'm from cincinnati you -- >> you took it personally. >> in new jersey plates. he didn't know you were from cincinnati. >> no, he didn't. but i felt personally -- here this guy was -- you have that bengal car wrap. >> number one, it's bengal. it's not bangles, it's not a girl band. >> maybe they would be better if they were a girl band. >> you know what? you can't say things like that. >> is this you yesterday? >> yeah, this is me when the guy wouldn't let me -- all right! all right! shares of nintendo rising this morning. we have the real mccoy waiting for us this morning. blackrock now owns more than 5% of the company's stock.
and apple's acquiring work flow, an ios app for creating short cuts and automating processes. apple is keeping the app alive in the app store and is making the app free, it was 2.99 before the acquisition. later today, congress will vote on the gop healthcare bill. joining us now is former new york lieutenant governor, betsy mccoy. from washington, the vice president of health policy at the center for american progress. betsy, start with you. i mean -- >> this is a big day. i believe we have the votes. >> that's what i mean. are you just being optimistic and positive with the company line -- >> no, it appears late last night the hold-outs in the house appeared to have reached a deal directly with the president. a deal that will lower premiums even more. and let me just point out, since i heard this term so often in
the last few days, this bill is not obamacare light. it repeals the individual mandate which provides relief for 8 million people immediately, repeals the employer mandate which cost millions of people their full-time jobs or employment in general because employers found it too costly. it reforms medicaid, the nation is facing a tidal wave of red ink because of medicaid and provide relief for people in the individual market who can pick the kind of plan they want. >> but the specific agreement, this is what the market will watch so closely, will bring them back in because it does two things? >> it does two things. it removes the one size fits all government designed essential benefit package. so the 30-year-old single guy doesn't have to pay for pediatric dental care and it changes the insurance rules to give a break to healthy people buying in the individual market. the sick will not be forgotten,
however. they will be heavily subsidized through section 2202, with taxpayer dollars to make sure they get the care they need affordably as well. >> we had a democratic congressman on from kentucky yesterday. i knew what his take on this was going to be. when it was all said and done, it was like you guys are kind of -- democrats are sort of just watching on the outside looking in here. i know will you say this is the worst bill ever, grandma is going over the cliff, everything else. but does it matter? this is in the republicans hands right now, isn't it, whether it goes or not? >> democrats are pumped up, but let me address the elephant in the room. you're having me on with someone who spread lies about death panels in the affordable care act politically -- >> what a waste of time. >> it was the lie of the year. and what is ironic is that actually what's true now, is that you're seeing the death panels.
and the death panels are the republican committees that are advancing this bill that would throw 4 mi24 million people off coverage. people could not get the life saving care they need. that's why every single doctor group, every single nursing group, every single group that cares about patients hates and opposes this dumpster fire of a bill. >> what dribble. let's go back to the facts. first of all, the american medical association opposes this bill, that's only 12% of the doctors in the country. many, many other doctors organizations are demanding that we pass this reform because obamacare has so -- >> name one. name one. >> -- when you go to see a doctor you can't get eye contact anymore. the doctor is spending all his time or her time typing into a computer what the government demands to know about this patient. so this will provide relief for doctors and patients in that office. get caught out of that office.
>> pediatricians oppose this bill. family physicians oppose this bill. there's not a single physician group that does not oppose this bill. >> well there are a lot of -- back when obamacare was written, there were a lot of indian deals made all over the place with different groups. the one thing you can't dispute is that it never got above 42%. after seven years, all the selling and all the -- you had a president in office that passed it trying to get people to say take your medicine this is good for you. you can look at the chart. never got a plurality of people that approved it. it turned out it was more unpopular with people who experienced than didn't experience it. you don't think anyone should have been done to fix what obamacare turned into? >> right now the polling is favorable for the affordability
cair act. affordable care act. >> it's always been more unpopular than popular. >> but now it's very unpopular. people don't like it when you try to take something away. >> that was a smart move by the democrats. it's hard to bring back entitlement. >> fox news had a poll that showed 33%, 34% support this republican bill. >> that's because they vent heard the truth about it. >> people disapprove of trump's handling of healthcare. only 33% approve of trump's handling of healthcare. this is bringing down his aproef approval rating. >> let me tell you one thing, americans don't like the fact that their premiums have doubled since the end of 2013. americans don't like the government forcing them to buy a product or pay a penalty. in this country, if people don't want to buy a product, you improve the product, you don't fine them for not buying it. >> you don't fine them like the republican bill does when they
try to buy insurance. that's keeping people out of the market. we want people in the market. we want people to have insurance. what the republican bill would do, independent analysts have said this, the cbo, would increase premiums 15% to 20% next year. >> only until the obamacare regulations are wiped out. then premiums go down. >> premium increases almost immediately. i don't know why trump is going forward it this. it's a total political disaster. >> the cbo says that people will withdraw from the market once there is no mandate. people will exercise their freedom to choose whether to buy obamacare or not. they will choose not to. then in 2020 there will be new plans available of all sorts people will exercise their freedom to choose to buy what they want. yes, the cbo says that 14 million people who currently are being forced to buy obamacare
will choose not to buy it. that's freedom. that's the free market. that's what we stand for in this country. freedom. >> well, you're being misleading. 5 million of those 14 million are on medicaid. medicate cuts are going to throw them off coverage. out of the rest, some of those people who are losing coverage is because you're sending the market into a death spiral, you're increasing premiums. it's not about they have the freedom not to have insurance anymore. you're increasing their premiums. >> no. the fact is they will still have the subsidies -- >> that's what the cbo said. >> you are incorrect about the cbo report, which i read carefully. >> did you read it? >> of course i did. the cbo made it clear subsidies will be available. people will not be asked to pay a larger share of income but they will choose not to buy obamacare because it is an ineffective system. when the new plans come in, people will have the right to
choose what they want. there's no reason for a 30-year-old single man to pay for maternity care. no reason at all. >> what they said about the new system is that actually it would price older people out of the market. >> i know what you're talking about on the cbo. they altered the bill since that scoring. >> they certainly have. >> no, we actually did an analysis of the altered bill. >> we're talking about an additional alteration made last night. >> even with the 85 billion reserve fund which is just aastt and found it would still increase costs for older people by $8,000. so that's not a good deal. and the other thing is -- >> section 2202. >> it would water down peoples coverage. it would make you have skimpier coverage. >> only if you choose to. only if you choose to. only if you choose a lighter
policy. no one will be forced into skimpier care. but nobody should have to buy a policy with a lot of bells and whistles they don't want. they should have the freedom to buy affordable short cuts and auto health care. by the way, with these changes, employers, especially in retail, for example, and hospitality and the food service industry who stopped providing coverage for their employees will have the freedom now to go back and provide coverage for those people without a one size fits all government designed plan that was too expensive for employers. >> how are people going to have the freedom to keep their plans when you're slashing their tax credits? there's no freedom -- kaiser family foundation found that the average deductibles would increase by 1550, 1$1,500. trump promised -- >> he seems to be unfamiliar with the latest amendments to this bill. >> this bill is increasing deductibles.
>> premiums will come way down because of the changes in this bill last night. >> all right. betsy, thank you. tofur, thank you. >> thank you. >> we'll know by tomorrow. >> still a lot of moving parts. >> athere are. >> this -- british prime minister theresa may is addressing parliament right now. she says the victims of yesterday's terrorist attack included one american along with 12 britonainbritainen s, some f greece. she says the uk will not change its threat level, and that there's no reason to believe that there are further imminent attacks. only a couple weeks ago when i
saw something that said the threat level had never been higher. >> it is one step below critical, which means a threat is imminent. it's been at that for a while. it's been at that level. >> she -- this attacker got fairly close to theresa may. >> shouldn't we always be at imminent threat level? >> probably. but this heroic policemen. i don't think -- he's not armed, i don't think. >> isn't that a shame? he lost his life because he wasn't armed. he could have shot that -- >> right. in this case, you know, the gun is what ended the attack. still to come, we will talk to republican congressmen on each side of the health k healt debate. we'll get an update in the next hour. first several major companies pulling their ads from
welcome back. right now it's time for the executive edge. verizon and at&t have suspended digital advertising on google's youtube after their ads may have run against extremist views. google has vowed to try to overall its practices. analysts say the company has to move quickly or risk the company's faith in placing electronic ads. coming up, the ambassador to germany. our first name has always been 'american'. at at&t, we employ more than 200,000 people with good-paying jobs. connecting consumers and budiness through mobile,
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welcome back, everybody. our next guest is pushing a plan to create a public bank for the garden state. let's bring in phil murphy. he's former u.s. ambassador to germany. he's currently a democratic candidate for governor of new jersey. phil, thank you very much for being with us. >> great to be here, thank you. >> the idea of a public bank, it's a little complicated. people aren't familiar with it. where did you come up with it? >> it's an idea that's been done once in north america, in north dakota, about 99 years ago. very successful notion. idea is if you're a city or a county or a state, you collect
taxes or fees, put them in the bank until you have to pay your expenses. in new jersey, at least, those moneys sit in big wall street banks. the idea is to bring them back into a bank that's owned by the citizens of new jersey. that bank would then do business entirely in new jersey. our idea would be student loans. it would be small business loans and small-scale infrastructure loans. >> so it would be taking the taxpayer dollars and loaning them out to the benefit of new jersey residents. >> correct. and we need all the help we can get. >> it sounds like a good idea. how come it hasn't been done? >> good question. i've been told the bank lobbyists push back on this aggressively, understandably, because it would be taking significant deposits. in new jersey's case, it's measured in many billions of dollars a year, that would leave commercial banks and come into this bank. we think it's an idea that has a lot of sense for us. >> when the banks push back, they push back on federal regulators who then say no?
>> i think it's more court of public opinion. this bank would be regulated. it would be set up and chartered just like any other bank. the difference would be it would be owned by the citizens of the state of new jersey. >> the funds would be protected by the fdic. although, the funds for the fdic are on an individual basis. >> it would be just like any other bank. again, the ownership of it would be different because it would be the citizens of the state. the business that it does would be restricted to new jersey. >> would the idea be that the loans that you're giving out, student loans or business loans, would have a lower than street average of interest coming off of them? >> student loan cases, the answer is yes. it would be commercial, but it wouldn't be loan sharking rates. new jersey's littered with examples with kids that are hocked up into the tens of thousands of dollars and are behind this giant eight ball of debt. as it relates to small businesses and infrastructure, the bank would work with small community banks. new jersey's got a great tradition of community banks, but they have shrunk since the
recession. this would sort of put capital through them. >> i guess my one concern would be who would be in charge of the bank? would the bank have to answer to elected officials, who often times say, yes, we want the money out, we want the loans out? would that relax lending standards so you get in trouble like fannie and freddie got into? >> fair point. this has to be completely independent, how it's chartered, governed, and led. it must be completely independent. >> it would seem to me you would be incredibly independent unless the next governor came in and said we're going to yank our funds if you don't do x, y, and z. >> we believe you can charter it, govern it in a way that works and remains independent. north dakota is a good example. it's retained that independence. it's a profitable enterprise. by the way, at the end of the year, the notion would be if there's a return, that would be paid back to citizens in a tax-free dividend. >> really interesting idea. i know you also are looking at the home foreclosure issue in new jersey. >> huge issue. >> one of the highest in the nation. >> we lead the nation in home
foreclosures. atlantic county, which is where atlantic city is located, number one county in the united states in terms of home foreclosures. new jersey is not getting its fair share of the department of justice settlements with the big wall street banks. the notion would be to get our fair share, run that through nonprofits that could repurpose those homes that are foreclosured infore closed into affordable housing. >> ambassador murphy, thank you for your time today. and steve, thank you for being here this morning. it's been a pleasure. >> i'd love to do it again. let me know. >> thank you. coming up, republicans scrambling to secure the votes ahead of today's big vote. we're going to ask congressman ted yoho if he's still planning to vote no. ok let's call his agent. i'm coming over right now.
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the countdown to the health care vote is on. u.s. equity futures flat ahead of today's big vote. the latest on the markets just minutes away. new developments overnight on that terrorist attack in london. seven people have been arrested in anti-terror raids. we have the details straight ahead. plus, the latest on last-minute negotiations for the american health care act. we will speak to republican ted yoho of florida who says he's voting against the bill. that interview is coming up. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. this is live?
>> live. >> this is live? >> it is. >> whoa. a lot can -- that's -- >> no delay. >> wow. i'm joe kernen. someone should have maybe told me this. along with becky quick in studio. to share his thoughts on politics -- you got it? it's live. >> i'm ready. >> chief investment strategist at strategus research partners. have you been on before? >> this is the first time in all these years -- >> you took your jacket off. >> it looks like a new shirt or something. very crisp and nice. >> i wanted to show it off. >> you have the ronny reagan cuff lirnks on. >> i bought them online. i wish someone gave them to me. >> that might be good for 1% gdp growth, just wearing those. futures at this hour are kind of flat. yesterday kind of impressive after the day before that it managed to come back to just
being almost flat on the session as far as the dow goes. plus had nike to deal with, which was down yesterday. >> like 7% or something. >> but the markets would have been up, the dow, without nike. here's what's making headlines at this hour. eight people have now been arrested in connection with yesterday's london attack, which killed four people, injured 40. prime minister theresa may says one american was among those injured. we have much more on the aftermath of that attack in just a couple minutes. a confirmation hearing is scheduled for today for president trump's nominee to run the s.e.c. jay clayton will appear before the senate banking committee. he's a partner at sullivan and cromwell. and sears suppliers are reducing shipments and asking for better payment terms, according to a reuters report. we talked about this yesterday. it follows the retailer's annual report in which it expressed doubts about its future after years of losses and declining sales. i think they're selling assets
to just cover pension obligations. >> but something like this where the suppliers are now saying we need better terms, this is the death spiral. >> could be the spiral. companies go away. >> hard to imagine one like sears that has a long and storied history. >> if you go back and look over the years at what was a household name in the past, a lot of them are gone. it happens. >> we'll be watching that closely. investors overall are watching what happens today in washington. in particular, a key house vote on the american health care act. the legislation to repeal obamacare. kayla joins us now with more on the latest in the vote count. >> hey, becky. the markets need some legislative progress to justify current stock valuations, and health care for the trump administration is the first major test. a vote on the american health care act, which is slated for tonight still, appears fragile, despite late-night deal making on the hill to reach a deal that appeases the house freedom caucus. that's the largest group of
republican holdouts that could potentially cost this vote. winning over that caucus could secure more than a dozen votes. other moderates have been defecting. "the wall street journal" quoting congressman ryan costello. to those evaluating, nancy pelosi said this yesterday. >> giving the biggest transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy, the richest people in our country. it's going to be tattooed to you. this is your vote. >> and also offering support to those who do not want to vote for this bill. just last night the koch brothers, americans for prosperity, said it would offer funding and grassroots support for lawmakers who voted against the bill. the house has promised that this full repeal is going to take multiple steps. this first step being the ahca being passed as a budget bill. the second by health and human
services by where riting new ru. the house has moved two bills on that third point. it's unclear at this point whether they'll get that first phase finished. joe, we talk about today, but now the reports are saying that the vote is happening as soon as today. this is a self-imposed deadline by republicans. they have a lot they want to get done by the april recess, but we'll see if it happens today or it gets punted to tomorrow or perhaps even next week. >> yes, kayla. i love those koch brothers. love those guys. if they had their way, we'd be trying to stop some hillary clinton legislation right about now. thank you, kayla. let's get to our round table to discuss the trump agenda and the
markets. bob michael, two first names. what did we finally decide about guys with two first names? >> it's all good. he's sitting right next to you. >> yeah, we decided that's good. >> i'm glad about that. >> head of global fixed income at jpmorgan asset management. o peter, it's all about the fed and central banks for you. you're not worried about this legislation or tax reform or deregulation or animal spirits? it's still these central bankers. >> of course i am, joe. i can't do my job without being concerned about what the next policy move is or how effective trump policy is going to be or how quickly it's implemented. it's not solely about that. i think frankly, the new administration was like the cork on a bottle. people were waiting to put money
to work. where was the liquidity for that coming from? it was coming from global central banks. away from the fed, global central bank balance sheets grew almost $2 billion last year. that's unprecedented without the fed involved. they've grown quickly before, but not at 11.2% without the fed doing anything. in fact, with the fed tightening. that liquidity has been looking for a home. we think we're sanguine into mid year. >> is it more than just all the free money? i wish it was. some day i'd like it to be about economic growth, not engendered by central bankers. >> we're in that transition. the central banks are starting to dial down the level of accommodation. the fed has raised rates three times. i think they'll go three more times this year. we're hearing the ecb talking about dialing down their intervention. so we are in this transition from monetary policy to fiscal
policy. i do think it's important to see what comes out of washington. we've seen the ten-year treasury in a trading range of 2.30 to 2.60 most of this year. everyone's expecting that trump is a deal maker, that he'll be able to push through some fiscal stimulus. this is the first real test. tonight's vote is important. it's not essential because we're mindful that t.a.r.p. didn't pass on the first vote. so let's not put too much emphasis on what happens today. >> i would tend to agree with that. our firm believes that there's about a 60% chance the bill gets passed today. >> 60%? >> 60% chance it gets passed today. having said that, if it doesn't get done, i don't -- i really feel very strongly that actually the consensus is more behind the other reforms that the trump administration is talking about. >> so the market shrugs this off? >> you might have a little bit of a pullback, but the
administration could easily transition or move over to tax cuts, to financial and energy deregulation, to all the other things that the market would be much more -- would discount much more, in my opinion. >> those are the positive things that we want to see the administration and congress focus on. where are the tax cuts? where's the deregulation? where's the mechanism to get the fiscal spend into the economy? that's what we should be looking at. >> this helps, to do this first. these guys, you think about what the purists are talking about here. they're living last year, the year before, the year before that where obamacare is very unpopular. they think they can just repeal it. they think b-- but is that realy feasible given the current political environment? you're going to see every single individual that loses insurance -- you can't pull back an entitlement.
>> but every one of these congressional members answers to their own constituencies. the freedom caucus members may come from areas -- you go back to gerrymandering. this is exactly how they feel. they're not going to vote against their constituents. >> all they're worried about is whether they get elected two years from now. but they've never had a president who could sign a bill for them. these guys all get elected. now they're willing to go against this guy. >> i agree with you, but i can understand how they come here to think it's their mandate to repeal. i would say some of them think their mandate is this alone. >> then in the back of their mind, they must think there's a plan b. there's no way these guys want to scuttle the rest of the legislation that's coming with the trump presidency. >> this is a sequence that's been agreed upon. it would seem to be an exercise in self-flajlation. >> i can't even envision that.
never mind. i'm sorry. i'm confused. geez, keep it clean here, will you? >> it's a morning show. it seems like it would be self-destructive, i should say. >> that's better. you're turning red. >> i haven't had my cup of coffee yet. >> i told you it was live. then you come out wiout with th. it is pretty amazing. it's either central banks or legislation. i just wish it was, you know, job creation and investing for the future, innovation. >> it's there though. >> if we get out of way some day. >> i'm not so sure. every economy is growing above trend now. the u.s. is, europe is, japan is, china is doing well. >> we're going to go 1% this year. that's above trend? you're stied with that? >> it's going to pick up to above 1%.
>> real wages were growing at 3% in the beginning of 2015. they're now negative. real spending has collapsed along with it. i actually see a big divergence. when you look at the survey data, it looks like we should be seeing real growth. in fact, we're not. >> you don't agree. >> well, wage gains are up 2.8% year over year. that's not bad. >> they're nominal. real wages are not growing. in order to get real spending and consumption, you need real wage growth. >> all right. either one of you guys, don't go self-flagellation on the way out. thank you, both. jason will be with us, maybe, for the rest of the show. >> hope so. >> depending on whether he chooses to stay or not. coming up, still to come, arrests overnight following yesterday's attack in london. we have the latest and the reax ju -- reaction just ahead. and later, florida congressman ted yoho joins us. he's one of several republicans
saying they'll vote against the plan. we'll see if he still feels this way after the late-night negotiations from last night. also, later in the program, the ceo of the american health policy institute is our guest. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. ♪ ♪ wanna get away? now you can with southwest fares as low as 59 dollars one-way. yes to low fares with nothing to hide. that's transfarency.
eight people have now been arrested in connection with yesterday's london attack. prime minister theresa may says that one american is among those that were injured. british authorities believe that the attacker acted alone and was inspired by international terrorism. the former principal deputy undersecretary for intelligence with the department of homeland security, now a senior fellow with the foreign policy research student joins us. jack, thank you for being here. >> thanks, becky. >> obviously there's still a lot of details that are being uncovered, still a lot of investigation to take place. the british authorities saying they believe he acted alone. one confusing thing this morning has been talking about these other arrests. eight other arrests. if he acted alone, why do we have other people arrested? >> sure, well, it seems he was the only perpetrator at the scene. what british authorities are trying to do right now is to ascertain whether he had any support mechanism. that's why you see these seven other people arrested, both in london and in birmingham. what they're trying to do now is they're trying to use some
forensics, looking at possibly his cell phone, looking at his laptop, if they have that, just to harvest information to see who he was talking to. often you find that in cases like this, there is often a support mechanism and a terrorist doesn't usually act totally as a lone wolf. >> it may not be an organized cell, but certainly other people that are empathetic and may help him along his way is the point. >> absolutely. individuals that might provide financial backing, might provide a truck -- he had an suv -- or any other type of support he would need to do this. that's what they're looking at right now. >> when you look at the situation yesterday, these are the types of things that are so terrifying because it seems like they're so hard to prevent when it's such a limited number of people who may have known about what was happening. you can't screen out someone driving a truck and carrying a gun. it's very hard to track any of those things.
he didn't have a gun. he didn't have a bomb. he didn't have any of those things. you're talking about anything that can't be screened that's being used. >> in a free society, is there any way effectively to really eliminate these things? >> it's really difficult. in a free society, only we value our freedom. certainly if you start putting restraints on people's lives, it's problematic. at the same time, the best thing you can do is really, i think, get good intelligence and try and keep a constant monitor on those individuals who might be predisposed to do this. in this case, this individual, his name has not yet been released, he apparently was someone known to the british police. he may have been someone that had been self-radicalized. he may have been posting things on a social media site. we don't know that yet. those are the kind of things that will be unveiled in the next 24 to 48 hours as this investigation continues to grow.
>> what about here in america? how confident should we feel in our ability to be able to have that kind of intelligence on people here? we've seen similar attacks that have taken place here on our soil. >> sure. it's really a cat-and-mouse game. the intelligence community, the law enforcement community around the country, and i was part of the intelligence community at dhs were constantly monitoring, looking for red flags and markers, where someone might be a potential terrorist or potential operational actor. it's a game that never stops. you're always doing it. you're always looking for new people. people are always coming into the queue, so to speak. you have to sift out who's the real actors and maybe who are the aspirational actors. it's unfortunately a game we're in now, and it's probably something we're not going to see the end of in the near future. >> i know he's british born, obviously, but the bigger issue on immigration, i mean, should a country welcome individuals that may never assimilate, that don't
have the same values? is there a way to screen for people that are eventually going to embrace our way of life here? should we be trying to do that, or should it just be that, you know, we'll do our best to assimilate these people, but if they don't, then we'll deal with the consequences? that seems to be the -- in london, i think that's what the mayor said. this is going to happen. in a city, things like this are going to happen because we're an open and welcoming city. what should we do? >> it's really a tough question. it's really a political question. it's a question, i think, that goes to the values of a society. in our society in the united states, we've always been an open society, welcoming immigrants. the statue of liberty. my grandparents came over through ellis island. they assimilated. we try to do the best we can to assimilate, i think, american citizens and americans that come to this country. the europeans have had a tougher
time doing that. their societies have been a little bit more, say, difficult to penetrate for an immigrant. so it's a real tough call. it's a call obviously that now is a call that reaches into washington. it's part of the debate. at the end of the day, we're always trying to just -- again, look for those markers. 90% of the people -- many, many thousands and millions of people assimilate fine and become part of the mainstream of this country. you're always looking for those that don't. of course, there's always the homegrowns too. there are people that may have been born and bred here and have lineage going back to the revolutionary war and they've decided to self-radicalize. so it's not just an immigrant issue. >> jack, thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it. coming up, honing in on health care. a house vote is expected today on the repeal and replace of obamacare. republican congressman ted yoho
is voting against the bill. we'll find out why in just a bit. plus, former state department official anne-marie slau slaughter talks geopolitics and cybersecurity. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. which player scored the most points in a march madness game? the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues. small incision here,t going te then we're gonna go in and remove your '67 corvette. my vette!? it's just a gall bladder! you don't have.. aflac! paying you cash, so you might have to sell that sweet little muscle machine just to cover your rent. more funny juice. but my papa gave me...that...car. what do you wish you had? aflac. ohh, i love doing that. health can change, but the life you love doesn't have to. keep your lifestyle healthy with- aflac! i am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. and i know a thing or two about trading. so i trade with e*trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the...
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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. which player scored the most points in a march madness game? the answer, austin carr with 61 points. stocks to watch today. mylan is recalling about 81,000 epipens, outside the u.s. in this case. it follows two reports of the allergy shot failing to work in emergencies. the recall affects devices distributed in australia, new zealand, europe, and japan. five below is reporting earnings and revenues and same store sales, all in line with expectations. the discount retailer plans to open about a hundred new stores this year, including locations
in california. pvh beating the street on top and bottom lines, parent of tommy hilfiger and calvin klein. >> it's funny to see pvh, a supplier for a retailer, both trading up by 6% and 8% respectively. such low pgs whiches on retail heading into this. if you have any positive news, people are like, wow. >> are we in that environment again? that's always an environment you see in a slow economy. >> with five below, i think it's a little more immune from amazon and the dot-com. >> what's five below mean? >> five bucks and below. if you're looking for those price points, it doesn't pay to pay for shipping on any of these items. >> five below and five guys aren't -- >> no, they're not related. >> the five guy burger never
came. compare that to shake shack, which immediately responded. >> five guys isn't publicly traded. they may not be watching. >> not going to forget that. when we come back, republican congressman ted yoho explaining why he is voting against the gop health care bill. stay right here. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.
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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are lives from the nasdaq market site in times square. among the stories that are front and center this morning, two economic reports on today's calendar. about an hour from now, we'll be getting the labor department's weekly look at initial jobless claims. at 10:00 eastern time, the government is out with february new home sales. about 17,000 at&t workers are on strike. they say the company is illegally giving work assignments to low you aer sala workers that should be performed by more experienced technicians.
at&t says it continues to talk with the union to try and resolve its grievances. fed chair janet yellen will be speaking at a washington, d.c., conference a little over an hour from now. that speech is not expected to focus on monetary policy, but we will be monitoring her comments and bringing them to you as soon as they're out. u.s. house members getting ready to vote on the gop's obamacare replacement today, but some republicans are still on the fence. joining us now, freedom caucus member, congressman ted yoho. congressman, thanks for joining us today. >> sure. appreciate you having me on. >> if i were to sum up your thinking, and everybody's got different reasons, obviously, is this part of a negotiation with you to get something that is more palatable and that's what you're waiting for, or you want the good is the enemy of the perfect, you want a clean repeal or nothing. what is it with you? >> i would prefer to see a clean repeal is what we're fighting for. every republican in the house ran to repeal and replace the affordable care act, as is
donald trump. if we don't deliver on that, the american people are going to look back at us at this time and say we had an opportunity to do that, we could have, we should have, and i wish we would have, or we can say i'm glad i did. if we don't repeal this, we're going to be left with a skeleton of the affordable care act. you have the refundable tax credits. you have the mandates of the affordable care act and the essential health benefits where i have to buy maternity insurance. >> no, i know. congressman, that's why i alluded to the good being an enemy of the perfect because, you know, this battle that has been raging for eight years, and believe me, i remember the way it was handled and the way that it was done, but now in hindsight, i realize how crafty it was because, you know, when you give an entitlement, you can't really take it back at that point. so they knew exactly what they were doing, but now you're falling into a trap where if you just repeal it, you're going to
see out of 24 million people or however many lose obamacare, every one of those are going to be on "nightly news." every person that can't go to the hospital, every person that might die or have some horrible disease, you're going to see that, and they're going to be pointing at you, congressman, saying you're the reason they don't have health care. once it's already done, don't you think that you should just try and improve it instead of pulling the rug out from people that have insurance? >> well, let's look at that. i think i'd ask something different. go back to 1970s when jimmy carter was president. he started the department of education. ronald reagan ran on getting rid of that. he missed that mark, and look, we're spending more on education per student and our scores are going down. you want to make that same mistake again? >> look at fdr. fdr introduced social security, medicare, all this. then a republican president came on, immediately didn't try to get rid of any of those things because it's impossible. you can't. you'll have no republicans in
congress in 2018. >> if you look at the affordable care act right now, there's people that can't get insurance or have insurance or can't use it because they can't afford the deductibility. >> i understand. >> i've got people on the other side saying this is terrible and we hear it over and over again. so whatever the outcome is, there's going to be people on either side. i want to make sure we get rid of growing entitlements. >> that's like damn the torpedos, we're going to do it. not only this, congressman. you have this president. the last eight times you passed this i think this, you didn't have a president to sign it. so now you got this guy who comes in here, wins. anybody that backed him, they rode his tailwinds in on it. senators that didn't back him are at the u.n. or something now. so now you have a guy who will sign something, and you're looking that gift horse in the mouth. if you mess this up for him and he ends up -- they're going to call him a loser in his first big test. then all the other stuff you want to do doesn't get done. >> that's one of the narratives
out there -- >> it's not just a narrative. how is that just a narrative? >> i can also say we're saving him from signing a bill that keeps the affordable care act skeleton in place. this country will pay for the rest of its life. it's an entitlement that will never go away. ronald reagan said that. >> some people do need help getting health care. it was an intractable problem eight years ago. the democrats didn't do it the right way, obviously. there are a lot of flaws. but back then, if republicans had designed something, there might have been some component that was an entitlement because otherwise people aren't going to have it. even a skeleton, if you put the republican -- you know, put a lot of free market and competition and things like that, maybe you can work within that structure. otherwise, i don't know, it just seems like back to the good -- damning the good for the sake of the perfect. >> i disagree with that. if you leave the skeleton, you're saying that the federal government should provide health insurance for people. we already do that with the va, medicare, and medicaid. i would ask you, how are those
programs running? they're unsustainable. our goal is to get people where they have access to care, but it's quality care and the price of insurance goes down. this bill, the american health care act, it doesn't hit that. it leaves the skeleton in there. the price of insurance, we're already saying it's going to go up. it's because the essential health benefits are there. insurance companies today can't draft policies and start offering policies for the free market until 2020. so this is something that we need to have that right now. that's one of the things that would get us closer to yes. i introduced a bill called hold harmless, where insurance companies could start drafting bills now and not be held accountable to the essential health benefits. that would drive down costs immediately. >> congressman, your views are views that are not embraced by the mainstream of your party. it will be an even more difficult sell when it comes to the senate.
are you going to vote no? is this a situation where if you don't get the legislation you're talking about right now, you will vote no today? >> right now, yes. again, we're at a point in time in history, they're going to look back at this, that we had an opportunity to remove an entitlement that's going to affect americans from now on. it goes back to our basic principles of the constitution. >> but your views are extreme looking at the rest of your party. is compromise a dirty word? >> i don't feel they're extreme. >> but you don't have a lot of support, i should say. if you're talking about the 22 members who are in the same position, you don't have widespread support throughout the rest of the party. is it your way or the highway no the mar matter what? >> it kind of goes down to what mark twain said. there was a quote. in the going of a change, the patriot is often a scorned, sworn at, disliked individual. but at his cause succeeds, the timid join his cause because then there's no price for p
patriotism. that's where we are. it's a constitutional principle. we need to stand and uphold it. if we don't, we're saying the government should have a role in your health care, tell you what kind of health insurance, what kind of coverage you have to have. that's an assault on our individual freedoms. our goal is to make sure people have access to health care, it's a quality health care, and it's affordable health care. let the free market thrive. this hampers the free market. >> so representative, if this fails, if you get your druthers and this doesn't go through, for those of us interested in the other parts of the president's economic agenda, what would be your next step? what do you do tomorrow? >> i don't feel this is going to fail. we're in the negotiation phase. i got a message last night that mark med do mark meadows had a meeting with donald trump and we're getting closer. let this thing work out and play out. i got to give kudos to our leadership. they have worked tirelessly to get a bill that we can all get
on. we're getting close. i have the utmost confidence in leadership that we'll come out with a bill that the president will sign, that the american people will thank us for. >> that sounds better. hopefully -- i hope it's all a way of getting a better bill that comes out. i honestly don't think a clean repeal would pass now. so if you're going to hold out for that, you'll never get that through the senate. you'll be standing on principle. democrats are going to jump all over republicans because when they got the chance to govern, they weren't able to govern. that's what's going to happen. all these other important things that might happen, tax reform and everything else, it's not going to happen. >> we're aware of that. but why did the american people put us in charge? repeal, replace obamacare. if we don't do that, we're not going to be in charge. >> just get the best bill you can. i just don't want to see -- if trump starts tweeting about you, everybody is going to know you. i just -- i'm trying to save you
from that. >> i appreciate that. that's the price of politics. >> he'll come up with something. lying ted. something bad will happen on twitter. >> it'll be good. we're going to make this successful. it's going to be huge. we're going to make america great again. >> thank you, congressman. >> god bless. >> all right. you too. when we come back, some new developments out of london and yesterday's deadly terrorist attack. we'll get reaction and talk national security. also, president trump's foreign policy efforts. what the president and ceo of new america. and later, president trump's last-minute efforts to get republicans on board with the american health care act. you heard how difficult that process is going to be. the vote is expected later today. the ceo of american health policy institute will join us next. "squawk box" will be right back. various: (shouting) heigh!
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"the schesz boa "the chess board and the web." thank you very much for being here today. >> my pleasure. >> your strategy seems to fit right into what we have seen just overnight in london and what's happened there. this is a different kind of attack, a different way of having to view the world and the threats posed to us. >> that's exactly right. i woke up this morning thinking one of the reasons we have not had nearly as many of these attacks as we could have is because we have a global network of cities. the new york counterterrorism people are completely in touch with the london people who are in touch with the jakarta people. that's a very different kind of foreign policy than sitting in the state department negotiating government to government. you have to create the network, and you have to design it in a particular way to the information goes out like that and the assistance goes out like that and you have teams who can actually do something on the ground. >> why don't we talk about the positions of strength that we have when it comes to this, then
maybe some of the weaknesses. >> well, so where we are fairly strong is we do have city networks. where we're weaker is resilience among populations. so just think about things like our power grids or any of our critical infrastructure. we have to make sure that you don't take out one or two nodes and the whole thing comes down. so that's a kind of network, if you just think about the internet. you have five or six huge places you go. if you took those out, everything would come down. you have to design a much -- what i call a mesh network, a much broader, sort of like a fishing net. >> we've seen examples of this. one of nodes in california was taken out at one point. they keep these things secret on purpose, but sometimes it's stored in the back of a parking lot or parking garage. >> exactly. what we have are networks that have just grown up the way all of us live all the time.
think about your facebook group. now we have to be strategic about what do you want to do with the network. do you want to protect the network. do you want the network to take action. or do you want scale. and what is the actual structure that you need. >> who's in charge of coming up with the plan? who should be? >> department of homeland security obviously. we've got folks in government who are thinking about this, but what's equally important, this is for business and civic groups. if you're talking cybersecurity, there's no way to do this only with the government. but the business in general, if you're thinking about a global supply chain, how do you design it for a specific purpose. >> are there any risks to sovereignty in this? because it seems like -- i've heard this talk about how the nation state is going to be obsolete. by the same token, it seems like the whole world is going the other way. people are more focused on self-determination now than ever before. i mean, the elites are focused on global network. average people are not as
enthusiastic about it. >> and the growth of populism. >> that's exactly why the book is called "the chess board and the web." the chess board is the world of nation states. it's still very much with us. it is crazy to think that it isn't. if you're talking us and russia, us and china, absolutely britain is pulling out of the european union. so you still want to think state to state. but you have to think in terms of the web at the same time. it isn't an either/or. even if you -- britain can pull out of the eu, but brittons are still going to be connected to lots of people in europe. you have to think about how do you design policy at that chess board level but also the web. >> we used to think there were certain rules of the road of what you would and wouldn't do when it came to cyber terrorism, cyber espionage. i think the blinders have been pulled back over the last several years in terms of what we know the chinese have done at corporate levels, what the russians have done at a state level. >> this one is where i'd
actually go back to the chess board. the russians hacked our election. we needed a stronger response than expelling diplomats and a few sanctions. on some level, you really have to say to the russians, you do this again, we'll expose all these secrets of yours and actually do it. that is more back to the cold war and nuclear deterrence. you've got to say to them, you do this, and there is a serious threat. >> is it too late for us to do that, to have a response like that at this point? >> that's a very -- well, i'm not sure this administration is the one to do it, but -- >> the last administration was not the one to do it either. >> you know, it's funny. we just had a full day on sort of cybersecurity. most of the experts i know think we should do it. yes, we would probably do it now. we know they destabilized our election. that cannot happen again. and look at all of europe. now worried. there has to be a punishment, and it has to be in kind. >> if not, not only do you
encourage the russians for further interference down the road, you encourage every other nation that wants to somehow have a say in our election. >> exactly. for those folks who remember the cold war, this is what we did the whole time. it was nuclear deterrence. if you do this, we do this. we've got to think that way at the state-to-state level in cyber. but then again, for protection purposes, you've got to have networks that involve business, civic groups, utilities, anywhere that can be hacked. >> you think that the russians, they kind of look at us and think, oh, we didn't try to influence netanyahu, we didn't try to influence brexit. radio-free europe, the propaganda. they think that's the right system that they have, and we fund all these pamphlets and everything. we don't do the same thing? >> i definitely think they think that. look, they're not wrong. putin thought that we had organized demonstrations against him in 201137 that's why he was
so opposed to secretary clinton. so yes. and yes, our cia has been out there in various ways, but there's a level of actually stealing and -- it's closer to what we might have done during the cold war, where we were really trying to destabilize or take out a government. we don't do that now. this level between us -- >> and your argument is we should. >> no, my argument is we should push back on russia and say, not expelli expelling diplomats, but you do this and we reveal your secrets that seriously hurts you. it's deterrence. maybe the answer is maybe we both do it, but maybe we both have to stop. >> anne mo-marie, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up, stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell. futures right now have been trading in the green for most of the session. just fractionally. but all three indices we follow all up a little. as we head to break, check out the dow's biggest losers in
yesterday's sessions and how it contributed to the -- actually, it was only a six-point loss. the rest of the dow was actually up if you factor out those two. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ wanna get away? now you can with southwest fares as low as 59 dollars one-way. yes to low fares with nothing to hide. that's transfarency.
general and also mentions super valu's real estate holdings. whole foods is also the subject of an analyst call. ubs began coverage of whole foods with a sell rating. it says that the days of double-digit sales and earnings growth are over in its view, and the stock price doesn't reflect that yet. all right, jason trennart is our guest. if we had more time -- i heard the same thing. what did you hear? you sort of wondered -- >> do the russians really -- >> no, from congressman yoho. >> no, from anne-marie, that they absolutely hacked our election. >> i mean, i'm certainly -- >> i think they definitely tried to influence. >> i'm trying to figure out how that would possibly be any different than any other time. >> was there anything circulated about hillary clinton or john podesta or anyone that wasn't just shining the light on
something that was actually true? okay. so we know now. i guess we don't believe julian assange that it wasn't from the russians. >> that's the assumption she's working on. >> so by showing that, it shows that bernie sanders didn't really have a chance, and it shows there was collusion with -- whatever. so these are the things -- that's not a full-on hack. that's not voting machines. that's not stuffing ballot boxes. >> no, but it's trying to influence. if you have secrets on both sides. >> i think it misses the broader point, which is the fact that most ordinary people feel that there's a political class in the west that doesn't care about them at all. that's what happened with brexit last year. that's what happened with trump last year. that's why you had j.d. vance on yesterday. >> it's the left behind. >> they didn't hack the midterms two years ago. they didn't lose the governorships. >> it's just the broader
question. cybersecurity is obviously very, very important, and we should do our best to focus on it, but i just -- >> oh, i don't think it's to suggest the election would have gone differently if the russians weren't trying to influence. i wouldn't say that. i think the votes played out the way they did for a very specific reason, and you're right, it is the left behind. >> it is the left behind. i don't think it's over. as far as you're concerned, we got another couple bites of the apple in the next year with france, germany, and italy. >> we do. you saw le pen is going to russia. and, you know, who knows. there's developments still happening in europe. i don't know if we just say absolutely that she doesn't have a chance. we'll see. when we comb bae back, more today's big health care act vote. tevi troy will join us to talk about it. the futures this morning have been mixed ahead of this vote. actually, things have turned around. all the market averages are indicated slightly higher. "squawk box" will be right back. of 32 brand new ships t
raids following yesterday's uk parliament terror attack. a live report from london straight ahead. plus, it was one of the biggest bank robberies of modern times. now we're learning north korea may have been involved. the details coming up as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. our guest host this morning, jason trennart. futures have been up for most of the session. single digits, barely double digits on the dow. three on the s&p. three on the nasdaq. treasury yields have been sort of surprising in recent sessions as they've come back down from 2.6. looked like the ten-year was going to go under 2.4 yesterday. it did briefly.
among today's top stories, two economic reports of note. at 8:30 eastern time, we get the weekly jobless claims. then at 10:00 eastern, the government is out with february new home sales. fed chair janet yellen will be speaking at a washington, d.c., conference later this hour. the speech is not expected to focus on monetary policy, but we'll be monitoring her comments and bring them to you as soon as they're out. and we're watching oil prices this morning. the levels it hit yesterday were the lowest we'd seen in many, many months. this morning crude is up, but only by about 11 cents. and a couple stocks to watch this morning. a lot of these today. a lot of stocks to watch today. con agra brands is expected to deliver full-year profit at or slightly above the high end of its expected range, though its sales will fall at or slightly below the low end, impacted by a soft retail environment.
accenture beating the street. scholastic reporting a larger than expected loss due to decreased club sales. ppg industries is reportedly not ruling out making a hostile bid for dutch rival paint maker akzo nobel. two prior bids have been rejected. and fireeye upgraded to buy from sell. that's a two-notch upgrade. goldman says the firm -- the recurring revenue is growing faster than expected. see, i think when you name that, you got to somehow just not put it in all capitals. >> i think our boards force it into all caps. they don't do it in all caps. it would be a capital second "e." >> they should have a space between the two. you see what i'm saying?
>> i do. >> you do? >> i do. >> no y, you don't. >> i do. >> okay. and sears suppliers are reportedly reducing shipments and asking for better payment terms. that follows the retailer's statement that had doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern. that's the worst thing you can ever read in any corporate document. >> you understand why the suppliers are reacting immediately. >> still a lot of equity. isn't it? must be more to it. >> you still have underlying real estate. >> you've got some debt probably. >> market cap is now under a billion dollars, which is shocking. $855 million. a developing story out of the united kingdom this morning. eight people have been arrested in connection with yesterday's london attack. our villa marks joins us from london with more. >> reporter: yeah, so we've been getting these reports that
overnight british armed police connected a number of raids, both here in london and birmingham, arresting eight people at six different addresses. the british prime minister not wanting to name the suspect involved in the attack here yesterday outside the british parliament. however, speaking with the house of commons this morning, she said brits would not be cowered by terrorism. she also said that following these arrests, they did not see any greater threat following on from the attack yesterday. let's have a listen to what she said. >> the threat level to the uk has been set at severe, meaning attack is highly likely for some time. this is the second highest threat level. the highest level, critical, means there is specific intelligence that an attack is imminent. as there is no such intelligence, the independent joint terrorism analysis center has decided that the threat level will not change in the light of yesterday's attack.
>> so the prime minister there saying that there's no imminent threat linked to yesterday's attack. however, she would not name the suspect. she did say she was british born and historically has been investigated by britain's domestic security services. however, because it's an ongoing investigation, she will not be naming the suspect. police will continue with their investigation. >> willem, thank you very much. again, willem marx. back here in the united states, the house getting ready to vote on the american health care act. joining us now is former health and human services deputy secretary under president george w. bush, tevi troy. he's now the president of the american health policy institute. i know that there are a lot of moving pieces here. this bill is continuing to be negotiated. we don't understand exactly what's in it or whether or not it will be passed, but what do you think about this bill as you understand it at this point? >> i think you're right. and thanks for having me on. to say it's influx. we also know it's going to
change, should it make it to the united states senate. but the overall framework of this bill is the start of a three-step process to change away from the obamacare, the aca trajectory and also to lower taxes, lower spending, reduce the deficit, reform medicaid, and maintain the major building block of the health care system which is employer sponsored care, which covers about 177 million americans. >> your concerns, if initiation about wh -- if any, about what you've seen so far. >> there's a lot of concerns. we just don't know if it's going to be able to pass the house. i think it's likely it does. then the question is what happens in the senate, where it's a more difficult situation. they have less margin for error. on the policy side, the question is really of coverage. we all know about the cbo report that said that a lot fewer people will be covered under it. i think that also assumes that the aca or obamacare is stable and remains in place. i'm not sure that's a safe assumption. i think what we're trying to do is to try and get to a place where we can lower the overall cost of health care by
incentivizing more people to purchase it, rather than the aca approach, which was to mandate it and then subsidize some people but not all. >> tevi, you mentioned the politic political risks here. we know the negotiations are taking place right now to try and bring in the freedom caucus and get them on board with some of these issues, but every time the bill is changed to placate that wing of the party, moderate republicans say that they're a little less likely to vote for it. again, this is before we even get to the senate, where they said a lot of these things were dead on arrival as far as they were concerned. how does this work out if you get one bill that passes the house, another that passes the senate, then you wind up in the joint conference. what happens? how do you see this playing out? >> it is a bit like a game of jenga, where you remove one piece and the whole structure is threatened. i think the focus needs to be on getting this to pass the house. if it doesn't pass the house, there's no question of it passing the senate. it's got to pass the house in
order to get to the senate. there are intentionally things they're not putting in the bill so it has what are known as reconciliation protections, meaning it can pass with fewer than 60 votes. there are certain things that some people on the conservative side want to put in that would be so-called fatal to reconciliation. so i think -- >> like what? what are some of those things? >> well, some of the things that are in the so-called third bucket, like changing the essential health benefits or association health plans or purchase across state lines, t.o.r.t. reform. all those things could not pass the senate without 60 votes and also could not necessarily make it in with reconciliation protections. once it's in the senate, once it gets from the house to the senate, then the senate folks can try to put things in and each individual provision would be measured by the senate parliamentarian. right now if the house puts one of those things in, that would be fatal, it could kill the whole bill as opposed to just an individual provision. >> so the senate parliamentary is ted cruz, is it not? >> well, he has been weighing in
on this issue, but no, the senate parliamentarian is someone who's appointed, i believe, by the majority leader and makes decisions based on precedent and what the rules are. so it's a very, very important position. even the person is not that well known. >> mr. troy, you mentioned the cbo estimates before. i would say that -- doesn't it strike you as a little bit of a fool's errand to rely on cbo estimates or government estimates, things like health care? 1965 under linden johnson, the great society, the best and the brightest, they made a projection of what medicare would cost 25 years later in 1990. their projection in '65 was that it would cost about $9 billion. in 1990, it cost $98 billion. that's not even close enough for government work. that's a big whiff. >> that's about right. >> so it seems like -- health care is a very difficult thing
to forecast. i'm someone in the forecast business. i know how difficult it is in general. how reliable can you really -- are these estimates? >> look, i call them guesstimates. the guesses are important because they determine whether something is reconcilable, for example. congress has to rely on them, but i do agree that the cbo approach looks at who is subsidized, meaning who's getting a check from the government to determine who gets coverage rather thank looking at, oh, if we reduce the cost of health care, will more people purchase it. so i don't necessarily buy the cbo numbers that 24 million will be -- 24 million fewer would be covered under this law. it still is what the house has to work with right now to get through. again, flaws with the projections, but it is the projection that they have. >> jason, you're our market specialist and our market expert
today, kind of weighing everything that tevi is telling you. everything you've heard to this moment this morning, how do you sort all that out and figure out how it impacts the market? >> i don't want to be blind to the risks involved if this doesn't pass. this certainly seems like it would be a problem for the markets, at lee for a short period of time. the question is if it doesn't pass is how quickly the administration might shift to the other, i would say, more important, at least from the market's point of view, parts of the economic agenda, which i think are, as you can see in the market since the election, it's very clear the investors are very friendly towards the idea of energy and financial deregulation and lower taxes and all the rest of it. so i think that's the big question to me. does the administration get money hung up on this or can they shift quickly to other parts of their agenda that would be much more market friendly. >> tevi, i know your expertise is in the health care area, but you've been in government.
what would you expect the response to be if this does not pass the house today? >> if this doesn't pass the house today, i think it's a bad sign for the ability of the administration to be able to get its tax reform through, its infrastructure plans through. it means that kind of like president obama, who started to re rely mostly on the administrative state to get things done and executive orders, they would have to look in that direction. i think it's too soon to write off the legislative process. i suspect this does pass the house. then we'll see what happens in the senate. >> great. tevi, thanks for your time today. >> thank you. zplmpbl coming up, could north korea have stolen $81 million from an account at the new york fed? u.s. officials seem to think so. those details next. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. ( ♪ ) upstate new york is a good place to pursue your dreams. at vicarious visions, i get to be creative, work with awesome people, and we get to make great games. ( ♪ ) what i like about the area, feels like everybody knows each other. and i can go to my local coffee shop
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welcome back to "squawk box." futures right now are indicated up on the session. 12 and change on the dow. up three or so on the s&p. nasdaq indicated up almost the same as the dow, up about three. we're also watching yields today. check out what's been happening with treasuries. ten-year today still yielding below 2.5% at 2.418%, bouncing a little higher than what we'd see on the lows yesterday.
joining us now is the chief fixed income strategist. tell us what you think about treasury yields. it has been a bit of a conundrum this week. >> good morning. thanks for having me on. this is actually the third time in this sort of somewhat stunted or slow-moving rate hike. i think what that really reflects is the irony that the faster we raise short-term interest rates, the sooner we get to that next rate cut at some point down the road, whether that's 2018, 2019. we're looking past that first move. the sooner the long-term rates come down. >> that's weird. what is that, though? is that just a reflection of the global market and how low rates are everywhere else? >> not really. i think it's a reflection that the more the fed fights inflation, the lower inflation risk comes down.
and part of the move we've been seeing in the last week and a half, two weeks or so has been that inflation expectations on the long end of the yield curve have come in. as the fed seeks to fight inflation by raising short-term interest rates, perhaps even fighting it too hard, long-term rates, which are more sensitive to that inflation component, come down, albeit relatively modestly so far. we're talking about 20 basis points. it's not like a large secular move or anything in that respect. >> i would just ask you, guy, the yield curve has flattened some. i find that personally somewhat surprising because even though the economic data hasn't been particularly good, it certainly seems the market is anticipating stronger economic data. there are other parts of the economic data that have been quite strong. so is there a sense maybe from your standpoint that the fed -- is it at risk of going too quickly? it's taken them a long time to be this accommodative. they're certainly too easy now, but it's hard to get back to a neutral fed funds rate all at
once. how do you see it? >> the markets are pricing in 2 1/2 or so additional rate hikes in 2017, which ginn soven of the broader economic issues such as slower population growth and productivity, it's pretty aggressive, considering we're sill sub-2% on the inflation metrics. i think for the first time in a couple years, there's a greater chance that the fed exceeds its own expectations for rate hikes rather than fall short. if you take a look at the dot plot, the refreshed one that was released last week, the 2017 dot, meaning where the fed expects overnight interest rates to be at the end of this year, is essentially right on top of what the markets expect. previously, if you look at dots released in 2016, 2015, et cetera, the fed expected a much higher path, the markets expected a lower path. the fed came down to the market's path. that seems obviously less likely to happen right now.
>> guy, ultimately, where do you think we can see yields by the end of this year? yields for the ten year. >> well, our forecast for the year on ten year is about a 2.35 or so, which would be roughly unchanged on the full year. obviously down a couple basis points from where we are right now. i think more important is the trading range. i think it's reasonable to expect we see the vast majority of the year somewhere between 2.20 and 2.80 or so. we haven't quite tested the top end of that range, but it would take a break north of 2.80 for me to be concerned about more of a true bear market. >> okay. guy, thanks for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up, breaking economic news. a key read on jobs still to come. plus, leave the plastic at home. how withdrawing money from an atm could be as easy as a swipe of your phone. >> plus puppies. >> they're not puppies. >> they are big dogs. >> good boys though. and good girls. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.
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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. we've been watching the futures as we await washington's take on the new health care reform act, whether that passes tonight or not. you can see the futures have been slightly positive all morning. right now the dow futures up by about ten points. s&p futures up by three. the north ameriasdaq up by four. making headlines, amazon has reportedly struck a deal to buy -- what the hell is that?
souq. what is that? why do you name it that? i'm glad it's getting bought. maybe they won't call it that anymore. souq.com, one of the top joen line shopping sites in the middle east. >> it means target? oh, it's what they call a market, a souq. >> that would be nice to know how to pronounce. okay. the site, which is based in dubai, sells consumer electronics, passion household items, and other goods. the price of the deal is unclear. this is really weird because we've talked about how it's hard to see a q without a u. the u is before the q here. it's even harder. so souq has raised 24 million since it was founded in 2005. i bet it doesn't look like that in arabic. reportedly valued at 1 billion after its latest funding round announced last year. wells fargo rolling out cardless withdrawal. starting on monday, depositors can withdraw money using a smartphone at any wells fargo branded a, tm.
the smartphone technology being applied to all of its 13,000 cash machines after piloting the idea in select locations across the united states. and we have some visitors on set. they're good boys. we got my pal hank over here. and gordon. >> hi, gordon. >> they are sweethearts. both of them. i'm going to get in trouble when i go home because i smell a little bit. have some of their smell. >> your dogs are not going to take kindly. >> no. actually, she said you should let your dogs know that there could be some competition. that way they can appreciate you. you have both adopted these guys, right? >> we volunteer with amsterdog rescue. gordon was just adopted by christina. >> by the way, the reason you're here today is you're ringing the opening bell right here at the nasdaq. we get to have the dogs, the puppies on national puppy day, here to ring the opening bell. >> and they're brothers.
>> any idea how old? >> gordon is 7. >> so you do know. >> yeah. >> you say they're brothers? >> well, they're foster brothers. >> i adopted gordon. >> i got like a million expressions about dog. what was the expression? the only thing in the world that loves their master more than the master loves himself. as much as we love ourselves, they actually love us more. >> all go to heaven, right. >> all dogs go to heaven. they can never do anything wrong. also, if you don't think dogs can count, get a couple of treats out and hold them in different hands. see if they don't know that you have another one left. they can absolutely count. i read more -- you know, you read more on twitter every day about they're so close to humans. the part that isn't human is the
part that i wish wasn't human in most humans anyway. all of our good traits. >> kind of like our children. >> yeah, kind of like our children, right. >> anyway, you guys, thank you for being here. good luck ringing the opening bell. >> good boy. >> it's okay, baby. when we come back, we do have some breaking economic news. weekly jobless claims are straight ahead. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. you always pay your insurance on time. tap one little bumper, and up go your rates. what good is having insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect.
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♪ good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. among the stories front and center this morning, we're just a few minutes away from comments by fed chair janet yellen. she's going to be speaking at a washington, d.c., conference. that conference will also feature an appearance by minneapolis fed president neil kashkari later in the day. the doggies are here. lots of them. >> they don't like kashkari. >> this is just hitting the wire. islamic state claims responsibility, says that the london attacks were carried out by one of its soldiers, by the
terror group's media arm. >> that probably, in reading into it, the london authorities have said that this was isis inspired. the media arm is the group, the part of ayes isis that's trying inspire other people around the globe to follow its wishes. in keeping what we've already heard from the uk authorities, that this was in the direct contact from isis, but certainly inspired by the propaganda that isis has put out. we will continue to watch what's happening with that. in the meantime, rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. take it away. >> initial jobless claims jump 15,000 from a 2,000 upwardly revised 243. last thursday i brought out 241. that moved to 243 on the revision. now we're at 258,000. continuing claims moved from just a whisker under 2.4 to 2 million right on the nose.
that's highly unusual. of course, that operates on a bit of a different delayed timeline. but we do see that dropped a bit. yields hovering at 2.41. even though many looked at yesterday's 2.39 close, there's market people and then there's people that cover markets. many stopped the trade in the cash markets here right around 3:00. it really isn't the way it's supposed to be, if you follow the cash market to the end. it still held the 2.40 handle. where did it stop? 262.6. level technicians have been talking about it for a very long time. dollar index is up a bit. i don't know. don't agree the dollar index moving politics. the euro and yen are guns hot because their central banks are in hot water. becky, joe, back to you. >> rick, before you go, talk to us about what you think may or may not happen in washington and how the market's going to be
reading any of those things today as well with the health care reform bill. >> you know, i was lucky enough to be on "meet the press" a couple times. i was the only person surrounded by political pundits who said something is definitely going to pass, and it's going to pass in a sausage factory way, the way that the original framers of the constitution wanted it to be. a little messy. yes, something is definitely going to pass. whatever that is, pass the senate? probably not until they tinker with it. that's the process. i think we're going to end up with something that's not the affordable care act. of course t will have to morph into maybe what the freedom caucus wants it to look like more. but i do believe something is definitely going to pass, and i also believe if you believe in less government, it's a step in the right direction. perfection is a great thing to strive for. holding on to the ability to make better changes ahead may be a bigger banner to hang your hat on.
>> and from the market's perspective, if anything passes -- >> oh, i think the market -- yes. and that's the other point. if you take the dollar index off the list of what it's directly responding to and you look at equities, even at their low point yesterday, the dow had only a 17% correction from its 21,100 high to where the low level close was the day before yesterday, on the big down day. >> a what percent? >> 17% from 21,100 to where it went down. what was it, 20,600. something in that area. >> 17%? what do you mean? >> from the high. so if you look at the fact that we had 2800 points since the election and you factor in what the biggest retracement has been from the high -- >> oh, okay. i see. >> yeah, no, i understand there's many ways to do it.
>> i was thinking up days have probably been 90% or something. i used the dow, maybe you used s&p. i got 14%. but the great thing is all of the people that said the market was going to go down or have travel with trump, they've hated every percentage point as it's gone up. they've hated it and actually said, well, it's really because global growth was improving anyway. until it got up -- until it went down a percent. then it was trump. 14%, well, global growth had already been engendered by the previous administration. killed them to even acknowledge it. then when it came down a point, it's like, hey, live by the sword, die by the sword. if you're taking credit for this, this is your one percentage point loss too. that's just the way it's going to be for four years or eight or whatever it is. >> absolutely. i still am in the camp that the biggest part of the rally we've had since the election isn't because of who was elected, it's because of who wasn't elected.
>> rick, can i just tell you a headline moving on reuters right now. they say the house democratic whit, steny hoyer, says the republicans clearly do not yet have the votes to pass the health care bill. you think that this is just going to be some of the maneuvering ahead of time and that there will be a deal reached today. >> but that was a great headline. democratic whip hoyer tells msnbc that. so you got the double whammy. >> again, you think by the end of today there will be some deal, some sort of reach down from the house and it gets passed. >> absolutely. absolutely. once again, i don't look at it as a negative that this stuff changes and gets morphed. i have no problem with the freedom caucus slash t/tea part. that's the process. this group pulls it this way, that group pulls it that way. that's america. >> the market, i don't think, is set up for a failure. i think that's part of why -- i think it would be, you know, it would have people questioning
whether the president was wounded, whether his future agenda is all the sudden, you know, you can't get a win. >> and listen, as much as i don't like all the political insertion into my marketplace, not mine, but the marketplace i love, i do believe in the binary aspects of that issue completely. i look at it as you can't make things better if you don't have the currency to do it. passing this bill will hold on to the currency to make it better. you can't start out perfect. >> and rick, just an enemy of your enemy analysis, steny hoyer, do you know how much steny and the democrats do not want this to pass? do you have any idea? the freedom caucus and some of these other guys -- >> well, let me think. for what reasons? for what reasons, joe? they understand a passage here shows a cohesiveness to be able to do something constructive with the power the people have given congress and the
president. it really isn't about the affordable health care act. >> we had a guy on earlier. they think they're patrick henry. he was giving me these quotes from the past that were so high and mighty, but really, if you do, you know, give steny a win here, that would probably not be a -- that would enter into my mind if i were one of those guys. it really would. >> joe, come on. let's cut it all away and really get down to the common denominator. >> i'm afraid to do that. the common denominator is, if this doesn't pass, the platform for the 2018 election will be framed in and the french resistance will be jealous at how little the democrats go forward in anything, on anything. that's the way i see it. and it isn't a political statement. it's a statement about how i have to think about things to try to divine to our wonderful viewers how the market is going to respond. >> all right. >> thank you. >> thanks, rick. joining us now, congressman
messer of indiana, serving as a republican policy committee chairman. did you want to, like -- were you like, i got to talk, i got to ta to talk! you were able to hear all? >> i was. i agree with all that analysis. today is an exciting today. democracy is working. we promised for seven years we would repeal obamacare, replace it with something better. we have a chance sometime this evening to get this done. listen, it's a messy process. i'm not saying it's going to be easy, even yet today, but i just belief in my colleagues and believe we're going to keep that promise. i believe that we're going to keep it because the american people have demanded this change. >> do you -- you're in indiana. you must know some freedom caucus guys. are they your friends? do you know them? >> yeah, of course. many of them are my friends. many of them came in with me. i was just elected to congress five years ago. i think the complaint they're trying to deal with now, which is how do you drop these mandates so that you can really get at premiums.
>> any of you guys ever have drinks together? >> yeah. >> okay. so you've been with these guys. do they whisper to you what really is going -- are they posturing? are they ready to hold out for a clean repeal, which i think would to some extent never happen because you won't get it through the senate, but it would kind of be cutting off your nose to spite your face. i know that's what they wanted and you passed the other ones and obama wouldn't sign them. i understand that. but we're in a different period right now. do they really want that, or do they want to play? >> listen, these guys love their country and they're trying to make it better. what they're worried about is premiums. what they understand is if you don't drop these mandates, you're not going to drop premiums. they understand that the filibuster requires 60 votes and that we're not going to get eight of my democratic colleagues to vote with us to completely repeal obamacare. so we've got to get done what we can get done. let me give you an example. in my district, people i talk to talk about how their premiums have gone from $400 a month to
$1500 a month with a $12,000 deductible. now people are $30,000 out of pocket before they even get to their insurance. that's not affordable for most americans. it's why people are outraged. these people want to get that fixed. if that's the compromise that happens when we come together -- we're probably 25 minutes away from the conference coming together at 9:00. i think we got a bill that's going to pass. we're going to keep this process moving, as your last commentator talked about, so we can make it even better. >> congressman, as somebody who runs my own business, i hear people like zeke emanuel tell me, you know, you're going to believe your lying eyes or what i'm telling you. what you just said is exactly what happened in my company of 60 people. premiums have gone up, and the deductibles are sky high. i think we could argue about why that's the case. >> we've seen it in our insurance too. >> it didn't exist before. i have a process question though, which is to say let's
say this passes the house. then gets thrown over to the senate. can the house take up other elements of the administration's economic agenda at the same time? can it then start focusing on tax cuts, can it then focus on regulatory reforms, some of the other things that from a very parochial view would be very good for the markets? >> yeah, we can get started on the hearings and debates. if you buy the premise that we can't count on our democratic colleagues, we'll have to do it through reconciliation. you can't get to the second reconciliation until the first passes. that's why tax cuts are likely to come this summer. we are able, though, to work on some of the other regulatory relief, like competition across state lines or association plans, which would help with competition as well. it's important to acknowledge, there were people that benefitted under obamacare. particularly folks with pre-existing conditions. but the problem is millions of other people were hurt. that's why there's been such an outrage. i think we can get this done and get headed in the right
direction. you know, that's really what the american people sent us here to do. >> does butler play tonight? >> i don't know if it's tonight or tomorrow, but we'll be rooting for both butler and purdue. unfortunately, the hoosiers are already out in the n.i.t. there's some exciting basketball coming in indiana. >> there is. and ohio. and ohio. xavier plays arizona. i think it is tonight. 9:00 or 10:00. >> it's late. >> so annoying. anyway, yeah, i'm glad you got a couple teams in there. i don't know what happened to -- >> we're sad about the hoosiers. my 9-year-old son's favorite team is butler. so we're rooting hard. >> my parents both went to purdue. before i was conceived. >> all right, sir. thank you. >> thank you. >> i'd rather be really focusing on that, but this is interesting though. if this gets messed up, i don't know what that says. >> failure is not an option.
>> no. all right. thank you. >> thanks. all right. some breaking news that's just in, involving mf global. the bankrupt firm and auditor price waterhouse coopers have settled their malpractice case. the terms were not disclosed, but both say it was settled to the mutual satisfaction of the parties. they had claimed bad accounting advice contributed to the 2011 collapse that had been an ongoing case. again, that settlement has now been resolved. terms not being disclosed. when we return today, the timeline of the trump rally. the stories that sparked enthusiasm on wall street. plus, the big question, can the climb continue? first though, as we head to a break, check out the dollar index. stay tuned. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc. ♪
welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. take a look at the futures this morning. been watching this close toly. after the markets ended mixed yesterday, you can see once again the indices are right around the flat line level. they've been slightly positive all morning long with dow futures just bouncing slightly negative at this point. a lot of this is waiting to see what happens in washington. maybe nobody wanting to make a big bet before they see how this is all going to play out. been a lot of talking points back and forth from the different sides. by the different sides, i mean within the republican party. we'll wait to see how this vote count looks to shape up for the health care act. in the meantime, take a look at the treasury market.
we've continued to see these lower yields with the ten-year this morning sitting at 2.4%. it bounced a little higher this morning. 2.400% right now. i know i talked about basketball, march madness, but fed chair janet yellen is giving a keynote speech at the federal reserve system community development research conference. so that's going to be on. >> who's in her final four? >> that's a good question. i wonder. this is live right now. can we watch it on a web broadcast somewhere? do you know whether people can -- >> we're going to monitor for them. >> if they so choose, can watch this. >> you should watch us because we'll tell you what's important. >> i wanted to watch that xavier game. anyway, we even know what's in this speech. no significant pronouncements on economic policy. it focuses on ways to build a foundation for economic success for young people. >> before we go to dom, speaking of young people, i forgot to say
something when he was here yesterday. he just had a baby girl. >> he's number one in our pool, our march madness poobl. >> you're thinking basketball. i'm thinking baby. he and his wife had a baby two weeks ago, and she's beautiful. >> dom, i said that to you yesterday. wow, i know congratulations are in order. you went, well -- i go, number one in the pool. number one in the bracket. yeah, you go. no, i knew you had -- that's great. >> she's beautiful. >> anyway, you're bufreautiful. >> thank you. i appreciate that. everybody at cnbc has been so supportive of both my daughter being born and of course my bracket standing right now. >> elizabeth, right? >> elizabeth. >> get a picture ready. i know you have them on your iphone. >> i have them on my iphone. i will show you photos. >> big baby too, right? >> eight pounds, seven ounces. pretty big. she was 20 inches long. pretty decent sized child. i feel bad for my wife.
she was the one who did all the heavy lifting, so to speak. >> and don't you forget that. >> i'm not. she's not letting me forget it either. megan, if you're watching, i'm not forgetting at all that you did all the heavy lifting. >> having the baby was the easy part. think about what she had to do previous to that with you. >> this is very true. >> think about that. >> i do. there was quite a bit of work that megan had to put into making this whole thing come to fruition. i played a very small role. she had to do a lot of, you know, perhaps work that she didn't necessarily want to do. >> you're missing what i'm talking about, dom. she had soto have sex with you. do i need to spell it out? >> i was trying not to go that route. i was trying to be subtle. if you want to go there, yes, there had to be certain things. >> dom, how about the markets? >> yes. okay, let's talk about it. becky talked about it before. the markets are holding steady right now. that big anticipated vote on obamacare repeal and replace.
there are a lot of traders, investors using this first step in the process as a barometer, a thermometer for just how long president trump's coat tails are. as of late, we've seen some of the unwinding of of a possible trump administration here. banks we've talked about most obvious, the sector's been the worst performer in the s&p 500 this week. profit taking, you have banks like bank of america the biggest loser in the s&p 500 week-to-date. also wells fargo, j.p. morgan part of that story. regional banks like zions, huntington bank, keycorp, also having to do with the flattening yield curve. the smaller difference between long term rates and short term rates, the harder it is for banks to make money on traditional lending activities if things start to go down like you see there. we had seen a nice run up on trump optimism. players have seen the momentum waning as well. if you look at construction
aggregates companies, vulcan materials, martin marietta, they make concrete, asphalt, shares up between 10% and 15% just since late january. of course you mentioned the hospital stocks, health insurers, other health care related stocks will be a huge focus today. but remember one of the biggest gains that we've seen in the trump administration march 1st after his address to congress, all the optimism there, people thought he could get a lot of these policy initiatives pushed through. this is going to be that first sign for whether or not a lot of people think he has the ability and influence to make legislation happen, guys. >> all right, domino. you know what, if i didn't have a twitter feed -- these people egg me on. ha, ha, ha, makes my morning, lol, go, joe, go. i mean, should i do it? you have kentucky, right? >> i do have kentucky winning the whole thing. >> right. >> we'll see what happens. >> all right. >> by the way, joe was like this long before twitter existed. >> yeah, maybe that's true.
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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. jim, i might be wrong. i kind of thought that the market sort of acting okay. does that mean that passage is likely, do you think? or the market is set up for something finally getting hammered out? if it didn't -- if it went down, do you think the market would take that in stride? >> i think that if it went down you might possibly have a minit.a.r.p. situation where they didn't succeed the first time, people realized how bad it was and then they will succeed later. i can't believe -- look, i think it could be a win-win. if they don't succeed, we go down a little bit, then they tick up taxes. and that would be much better. but i personally think they've got to come to some conclusion on this thing because as we've seen the big hmos are all pulling out. i mean, you know, i don't know what you're going to have if you don't have something. if humana pulls out, united pulls out, i don't know where there would be any competition
in the big states. so i think the congress people have to recognize it is kind of falling apart. >> yeah. yeah, look at that. i did see -- you can see which ceos of companies, you look at what their stock's been doing to see if you like it or not. >> yeah. >> i saw the guy at molina, "the huffington post" touting, and had analyst on -- >> should go speak to centene. the ones up the most i think were down a lot because people felt they were going to be punished by the antitrust that they try to merge. once the mergers were off, the stocks took off. but i think it's really important to watch humana. humana's pulling out. and humana was the biggest commitment. >> all right. jim, thank you. >> thank you. >> we'll see you in a couple minutes. >> yep. >> and later this morning on
"squawk on the street," don't miss former hh secretary kathleen sebelius. we'll find out what she makes of today's health care vote. i have a pretty good idea. that's at 10:30 eastern. stay tuned. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ wanna get away? now you can with southwest fares as low as 59 dollars one-way. yes to low fares with nothing to hide. that's transfarency. kevin, meet yourkeviner.
17 seconds, jason. just long enough to thank you for being with us. >> appreciate it. >> by tomorrow we'll know. >> we'll know. >> maybe. >> we'll have an idea. >> maybe. >> we hope. >> jason, thank you. we'll see you soon. that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. david faber's off. got some stability in the premarket on what is expected to be a big day on capitol hill. still no timing on a house health care vote, but lawmakers expressing more optimism about passage today. london is steady, parliament's back to work as the city responds to yesterday's terror attack. bonds once again 2.4, claims back above 250. roadmap begins with a vote on health car