tv Fast Money CNBC August 25, 2017 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
you'd like to think that's the worse case it's not it's almost the opposite it's both. >> flooding! the national flood insurance program the $25 billion in the red. >> the good news for the markets is is it's happening over a weekend so by monday, you'll have a good idea >> hopefully less impact on people because of that >> stay safe, efrk thank you guys both. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. "fast money" does begin right now. live from the nasdaq market side overlooking times square, i'm michelle caruso-cabrera in for melissa lee. tonight, hurricane harvey. picking up steam as it nears the coast of texas the latest details first though, we start with the markets. the dow and s&p taking off earlier today before losing their gains into the close the dow was up as much as 120 points and the comments that sparked the rally stop if you've heard this one before.
tax reform or tax cuts eamon? >> yeah, we had some dramatic comments today from gary cohn and the financial times. gave his first interview in the wake of the president's handling of the charlottesville, virginia incident and didn't pull many punches. here's what he had the say talking about his reaction to the president's handling of tha event. he said i've come under enormous pressure both to resign and to remain in office he said the administration can and must do better on this issue. he said however, i am reluctant to leave my post and he said i will not allow neo nazis ranting jews to replace us to allow this jew to leave his job we get a sense he intends to stay we've got new reporting this afternoon that said gary cohn had gone as far as to prepare a
letter of resignation to be presented to the president, but ultimately, decided to stay on we also gave an outlook for tax reform, at least from the administration's perspective remember, the white house is now no longer going to put out its own tax reform bill. instead, they're going to let the hill take the lead, but cohn gave thoughts on what is going to be in the package when they get rolling on it. here's what he said. he said the big three deductions are going to be protected in terms of individual taxes, charitable, mortgage and retirement savings will be protected in the bill. he envisions a one h time repatriation tax no specifics on that that tax rate would recollect but he said ultimately, congress is going to decide which deductions stay and which will go. he said they're no longer d discussing the border adjustment tax and then this afternoon, we had the opportunity to hear from the treasure ary secretary about the debt ceiling issue >> i think you know earlier in the year, i said i thought we'd get it done by august and i was wrong. okay
i am now going to say that i am hopeful that we can get it doyne by the end of the year, but we will continue to revisit it. >> sorry, that was the secretary talking about taxes, not the debt creel, but you get a sense this administration is optimistic we saw speaker ryan saying he's optimistic and next week, they begin a big rollout that the president is going to travel the country talking about the need for tax reform >> important things when it comes to the whole discussion about taxes. thank you. >> so, do you keep buying on hopes that tax reform, gary cohn is staying trump going to travel and push for this he never did that with health care reform and we know he understands taxes. unlike health care reform. suddenly, this is on the table >> i don't because if you look at kevin braise di and paul ryan pushing for that back tax. border adjustment tax.
that went no place now, you have paul ryan the other day talking about mortgage interest it's not going to august now, all of a sudden, cohn is talking about that is not inventory. >> thank you so much so. so much sausage making they're not going to agree on anything they haven't been able the to agree on. t not going to get done. >> so, if you're telling me that i think the market is in a lot of trouble >> we were down the 100 day moving average that's what's driving the market what's driving the market is that redeescalateded the geo politics i don't think it's any reason to get excited. more importantly, rates are down near their lows. 216 is the market telling you we think taxes are going to be cut
and this is going to jump-start the economy. that to me is running so contrary to where the market was priced in tax reform six months ago, there's no way this is something people are excite d about this week. this week's market was about a world where rates are easy the fed and every bank that matters is meeing now saying we're not going to do anything aggressive >> we're in a low volume take right now. if the market wants to get pushed around by hedge funds they want to press and push shorts lower market's not moving lower. this is a positive sign. i don't think the mashlgt is move iing on tax reform. has nothing baked in and it's not going to i don't think anticipation is that we're going the get anything passed. the it's earnings that have been drive iing the market and the opportunity for earnings >> that was my point that i don't think this is a reason to exit the market. i think we saw this week to tim's point, the market held in there. could it go another couple of percentage points lower if we don't get knee jerk? a pass yes, but i think you stand more. >> here's some things for
caution going into september, which i think is going to be sloppy i really do. earning were great that's the b b problem, the bar is way too high. at 21 times, the s&p is not cheap. earnings are great except they justify barely where multiples were they don't tell you what's coming down the pipe i think we have a dynamic where markets have little to be excited about. >> that's my point about the tax pace if we get tax reform people are talking between 15 to $10. if you don't get that, where's the growth going to come from. the economy's not horrible, but, high bar on eps, i think it's going to be tough to -- >> what about the weak dollar? the ur o go to a buck 19 today in the wake of doggie. that's going to help out the multinationals for sure. that's part of the reason we've seen the market move >> no question it's a tail wind no doubt about it. but you look at it and say to yourself with, you say 5, $11 in taxes.
>> in earnings i totally get that so if you don't, just don't include that, the multiple and s&p is not crazy expensive the leadership which has been technology, it's not showing deterioration from a relative perspective versus the s&p, so i say we're in a period that's almost goldilocks. i think september we could see a lift off >> what do you buy and sell at this point >> first of all, this weak dollar dynamic is interesting. if you break 92 on the collar, it's moved from 29 to 16 with 79 and 103. at 92, you break there you're right back down not saying it goes there overnight or even goes there, but look at what's going on with copper and steal prices. industrial metals. eve with oil i think most are going to call this a hurricane rally those trades have been working were a year and a half and will continue to work so continue to buy that stuff. emerging markets have outperformed and broken their five-year trend their five,
six-year cycles that have just started to turn. >> grasso. >> i know people have gone broke buying the retail. i'm long jc penney got longer around the 3.5 dollar mark we've seen retail start to bounce sideways to higher. i think you stay in the retail trade. whether it's xrt to mute your risk out >> tim makes a dpraet point about copper this has been moving and to me, this is the risk in the market because we're seeing rateses that are low you're seeing a massive divergen divergence the ten-year versus copper they generally follow each other except for now either copper is going to come crashing down. people are going to go, oh, no, he's telling us the economy is slowing down or rates are going to rise. if you get rising rates, not talking rapidly rising north of 3% on the ten-year in this environment, 21 types pe, not supportive >> buying some financials still.
picking away at different names. jpmorgan, i like and bio and tech and the fang names. >> okay. coming up, hurricane harvey. quickly approaching land fall in texas. now, a category 3 storm. we'll bring you the latest on everything you need to know right now. plus, the battle of the century. mayweather versus macgregor r. jane wells is there of course. jane >> yeah hi, we're get iting las minute big money on bets on mayweather, which is making the sports book here feel very comfort bable. is it farce of the century one thing we know for sure, everybody invoedilbe alv wl lot richer how rich "fast money" returns oh, not so fast, carl. ♪ oh no. schwab, again? index investing for that low? that's three times less than fidelity...
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welcome back texans bracing for hurricane harvey as it barrels through the gulf of mexico kaitlyn has more on this developing story >> the national hurricane center just updated harvey's forecast minutes ago and there have been some relatively drastic changes. so let's get right to it harvey is continuing to churn to the north and west working its
way toward corpus u christie set to make land fall later this evening. now, we have already been dealing with the strong outer con evangelicvektive bands. let's talk more about the changing that have come. heigright now, the it is a very strong category 3 hurricane. winds right now, up to 125 miles an hour. a category 4 is 130 miles per hour and there's the potential for it to strengthen rega regardless, it is going to make landfall as a major hurricane. it continues to move toward the north and west at 10 miles p per hour not expected to slow down a lot more, but it will continue to strengthen as it works its way to the north of corpus christi let's talk about the track this is the change and impact it will have. we have it working its way on shore as a category 3, but here's the thing, not only is it going to stall out, it's going to loop back hang out in central texas for
longer than initially anticipated. this is going to increase some of those rainfall totals before it loops back down into the gulf of mexico and works its way up toward houston by the middle of next week so once harvey works its way on shore, it is going to stay there and continue to bring in that catastrophic rainfall. so let's talk numbers because this is a triple threat storm. we have the rainfall the surge and we have the winds. rainfall expected from 15 to 25 inches localized up to 35 inches almost 3 feet of rain add that on top of the storm surge between 6 and 12 feet. flooding remains the primary concern as we head through the next few days. wind already higher than this, already at 125 miles an hour as harry continues to work its way toward the texas gulf coast. back to you. >> thanks very much. that loop and backtrack looks like there's going to be more refineries in the path of this
shows the difference in the price between the cost to gasoline and crude oil a lot more than gasoline than the understolying price. the more pun money they make, that's why you see the cracks move they they have been been doing very, very well. bk, do you expect this to continue >> base d ton latest path and ho much rain they're going to get, i think this will widen out or stay wide for a while here because you're talking about 35 inches of rain you're talking about something that's going to last into next week and so these refiners are going to be closed for a bit, which as grasso said, you're going to have a glut of crude, which should bring the price down, but then have a shortage of gasoline which should make the spread wider, so yeah, i think there's going to be an impact here >> and for all the energy sector, the refineries have done
well in a name like holly or some of these names that have been very defensive here, the demand impact is is five to six weeks i don't think it's something you trade. are we really trading oil on demand bottom line, i think oil is above the 200. stays above the 200. it's a range that's stabilizing the last two weeks lower today. i think this sector may be turping. >> i was going to say, i think we've seen the best draws we've seen in the deal, history. and crude can't crack 50 i look at these defensive names, of course they are because people are taking a bearer stance on crude in general near term, you're right. you may see a pop in these name but otherwise, sold. across the board >> again, we've lowered oil prices and a lot of feed stock,
this is quarter of their business that's why they've outperformed and have been getting upgraded i think the multiples get better >> still ahead, homebuilders under pressure and traders think there's more trouble ahead here's what else is coming up on fast >> it's the fight of the century. not that fight talking saturday's mcgregor mayweather but the real winner could be outside the ring we'll explain. plus, staples have gotten nailed and there's something that suggests more pain to come we'll tell you what that is when "fast money" returns this is not a cloud. this is a tomato tracked from farm to table on a blockchain, helping keep shoppers safe. this is a financial transaction secure from hacks and threats others can't see. this is a skyscraper whose elevators use iot data and ai to help thousands get to work safely and efficiently.
...karma! [vo] progress is seizing the moment. your summer moment awaits you, now that the summer of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the summer of audi sales event. sports fans around the world ready for the fight of the century tomorrow night we're joined now by the people champion, jane wells, live from las vegas. with details on how the fight will be a financial knockout for the city hey, jane. >> hi, michelle. they're getting amped up here, the weigh in is at the top of the hour and the hype has now reached 11 because there's
really never been anything like it a u frfc athlete in his prime, t who's never boxed going up against an undefeated champion boxer who's come out of retirement for a massive payday. conor mcgregor could make $100 million. mayweather, the overwhelming favorite, could make north of 300 million depending on pay per view revenues and for vegas, tourist authorities say mayweather's last five night fights have a nongames impact of $56 million. mgm is counting on this to boost its third quarter. >> i think the fight at this magnitude, it will be the all time if not the second all time the industry and universe has ever seen. a massive amount of audience >> now, show time says current pay per view purchases are tracking similar to mayweather pacquiao although in more
companies, it's still small. showtime >> seeing that as of say friday at 6:00, might have a grand total of 50,000 buys 100,000 buys when you're looking for 3 million, 4 million maybe plus, so, you know, a little bit of a game of chance and it is a nail biting experience will especialbeeb be with maywen mgm has a new bet. you can bet the minute the fight will end regardless of the winner and the current odds on favorite is the third minute of the seventh round. back to you. >> love that detail, jane. thank you so much. so, what's your best bet who better to ask than jay rude, vp of race and sports for mgm. >> how's it going?
>> what's the biggest bet that's been placed so far on this fight? >> biggest bet was 1.1 million on may cls weatherweather yesterday. >> wow u >> good luck to him. >> i feel very confident >> we have a customer that's kind of sitting on his hands he was contemplating play iing win 500,000, so currently, that would be 3.6 million if he makes that play. i'm hoping he gets it in this afternoon. and then we'll have a perfect position to be in to book the rest of the fight tomorrow what's the total amount that will happen? >> we did 50 million on the pack jaw fight. i think easily going to pass that this could be close to 60 million, north of that this will be the single biggest betting opportunity on the books
this year. we'll book more money to who wins the fight than who will win the super bowl so, this is easily the largest two way wager opportunity this year >> i was going to ask for context. super bowl on average, you see bets of how much >> we did 135 million to the super bowl last year this year, we'll do you know, probably similar to that, but you got to remember, we offer close to 400 bets on the super bowl, so the concentration of money on the fight is much stronger than it is on the super bowl because people tend to spread around maybe have 15, 20 bets rather than they're going to have two or three tickets in their pocket on this particular betting opportunity. >> what are the current laws when it cops to betting on fights >> current laws? >> yeah. >> state of nevada, you show up, have your wallet ready to go >> what are the odds >> minus $6 on mayweather and plus $4 on mcgregor. what that means is for every dollar you want to win on mayweather, you have to lay six. for every dollar you bet on
conor, you're betting four u, so get back five. >> i saw some reports today that vegas sports books might lose hurrican hundreds of millions of dollars on this. when you give these odds, is it paired off risk are a directional bet? >> a directional bet t the risk stories that came out, that was early. that was before the mayweather money started showing up anytime we have a big fight like this, the last 72 hours is 90% of the handle we're going to take 90% of the wager has come in the last 72 hours, but this was an anomaly. we had a tremendous amount of support for mcgregor early we've been taking wagers on him left and right we have over 8,000 wagers on mcgregor now and about h 400 on mayweather, so we were racking up a considerable amount of liability early on, but now that wer we're getting
the mayweather money showing up, we're starting this fade that and mitigate our potential losses rapidly >> got it. thanks we'll be watching. jay rude for mgm reports tim. >> i look at the sector. it's had a huge run. i still like mel co. the recovery in asia is a lot more interesting mlco >> sim stocks. anybody else playing casinos >> i do like mgm they're the unz dog. >> might be betting on the fight? >> no. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn tim. >> emerging markets have been b running a country that's starting to see a rotation ech is the etf >> top to have show, i showed copper versus rates by tbt to play that con vvergenceconverge. >> buy home depot for the long-term. >> grasso.
>> car avis budget. short interest is is still 54 45%. down about 5%. i'm in it. you should be as well. >> all right thank you, guys. that does it for us here don't move though. options action starts right ter the break. whether it's connecting one of the world's most innovative campuses. or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. (upbeat dance music)
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we are live at the nasdaq market site. the guys are getting ready here's what's coming up. >> frosteded lucky charms. >> they're magically delicious >> but suddenly, soup and sere ra cereal stocks are tanking. we' it's just metal stocks ab there's a name that looks ready to break out plus, talk about trouble on the home front >> when i look at you lately, i just want to smash your face in.