tv Fast Money CNBC September 1, 2017 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
that's great. >> someone's keeping track of the money. >> they need a spell of good weather. probably the thing they need most >> it has been sunny zwl thank you, gang. i think kelly's back on tuesday and we'll see if this -- >> guy said he likes it. >> that is "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. have a good weekend, everybody "fast money" starts now. overlooki ining times square, i melissa lee. your traders are -- tonight on fast, infamous short seller andrew left said something on "fast money" last night that sent bitcoin traders sinking ford is soaring again today, but the chart master sees something that could send the stock spinning out of control. and later, alibaba has nearly doubled in 2017. if you missed the run, we've got
a way to buy it for less than five bucks we start off with the fast and furious. despite harvey, tensions escalating with north korea. nasdaq having its best week f the year and closing at fresh record high. check out the familiar names hitting new highs. all a part of what we're calling the all time high club apple, mcdonald's, paypal, unit ued health care, even royal kai b rib yan. which stocks do you keep buying and which do you start fading at these levels >> that's a cast of the names i don't mention, but the ones that stick out to me, royal caribbean has been a monster you had an interview with pl feign b about two years ago. it was a $60 stock stock has doubled. goldman sachs just took it from neutral to overweight. they'll upgrade it again, i think. i also think unh is a monstemon. 18 times forward earnings.
i don't think it's expensive in the space. great company. great balance sheet and the stock goes higher. the last one is sales force. we talked about it this week they report, stocked sells off week and a half later, the stock makes all time high. that's been the mo for the stock for the last two and a half years seemingly. >> brian kelly >> for me, it's the space. something like paypal. we know payments are changing. this is kind of a secular change in the entire industry and paypal is all over it. they're getting massive growth unbelievable growth in that area i wish i was on square like grasso has been all year paypal, above 61 on the quarter as long as it holds that level, that looks like great breakout area in a name i have things, a lot of legs and great story. >> thank you very much i would stay with short answer is stay with all of them >> every one that i name snd. >> this market has a hard time picking new leadership apple, you had an event, unh
that health care space has led the overall market sales force, cloud space has been strong. i guess mcdonald's, make take sot profits there. but if you look at the chart this royal caribbean, there's nothing negative i could say about it zero it's gone an ascending trend line higher highs, lower lows these guys are more first time, getting into the experience of the vacation the younger group wants experiences. older group wants to do something different. >> works for both. >> saying that everything is going to continue on as it has and that life is just peachy, i think means that the market is going to not entertain some of the most important issues that it will in the fourth quarter. we just came out of a second quarter earnings season where earnings, they absolutely beat and they beat significantly. but when you look at the travel space, priceline, expedia,
carniv carnival, all of these names that have been on heroic runs and valuations are very difficult. when e look at things that are at all time highs that i want to own, first of all, i would go to asia tech and go to alibaba and ten cent and bayou because these are much better valuations than in the u.s. tech names >> rather the stab as opposed to fang >> i just want to talk about thinlgs, 52-week highs maybe i'm break iing the rules. i look at u.s. steel that to me is at 52-week highs and that's a chart i want to buy. that's a chart i bought well through the 200 day. seeing iron ore prices go higher you're seeing steel tariffs, antidumping. a lot of reasons why steel companies like u.s. steel in an environment where we haven't gotten the infrastructure. sotrades that have worked for long time and may not be at all time highs may be why you want to buy them. emerging markets at five-year highs, break it out. >> maybe, but the thing is about
the valuation argument, which i understand, but we have yields, so while valuations are high, yields are at 201, 212 today, so long as we stay low on this, then stocks continue to look attractive i've been saying all year, you start to get yields rising closer to that 3% level. stocks are going to have a major problem with this level of valuation, but until that happens, i think you're okay even buying the ones that are going at thu highs >> how to you address valuation question when you look at valuation compared to that stock, not against the whole market, does it get harder and harder to own a royal caribbean? >> one of the mistakes i made, i thought with yields going lower, that it would somehow hurt stocks because it was telling a story of deflation, tim pointed out a number of timetimes, it make st more appealing how do you get around valuation?
as long as yields stay here, you can sort ft, you can excuse valuations at these levels royal caribbean at 14.5 times is not crazy expensive. you could start making a case. mcdonald's now probably approaching 22, 23 times forward earnings we said 160 is the level >> we sell our winners too early. we hold on to our losers, so you look at these charts like royal caribbean, like all the names we just opened the show show up and we say you have sell them. these are times to ride out the winners a litter longer. >> so, when it comes to liking energy, at what point do you say it's time to get rid of these loser sns. >> that's the problem. is is that you should have cut the energy losers a lot sooner than most people will cut the energy losers, then get into that value trap, where you're buying these stocks on the way down, the macro position for energy is still in a bear
market >> that comes down to the risk management of it, too. so depends on where you got into these. if you got in over the last week, maybe you have more room, but at some point, you have to say i use the 3-1 ratio. where ever my stop point, i want to make three times that on the upside i can weather a little bit of a downside here, with energy, right here, if you want to get into it, not a bad risk reward place to get gl right, so consistent to what steve and brian are say iing, another phrase is people auch cut their flowers an keep their weeds. you don't want to do that. now n the case of the energy sector, the other part of what you want to do to throw more clay shays at you, you want to catch companies that are in some kind of inflection point in either in their business, whether it's an uptick in margins, whether they've consolidated another company you name it. those are the things they want to catch i look at the energy sector. i look at it down 25% when if anything, what i'm getting out
of doe numbers and i don't trade these numbers. if you trade inventory thurm ons a weekly base, the it's a fool's game the energy sector has gone through a painful contraction and some consolidation that's fine for the sector >> so, as the major indices continue, what are some key levels to watch? off the charts grasso is going to give us some levels >> this is pretty interesting. you make this a little too difficult. i've been accused of that. when i look at charts, but if you really look at where we are, where we came from and where we are now, let's look at recent highs. recent lows. and then the bounce back so ultimately, your recent high, your recent low, then you get that overshoot, the traretracem value. it shoots up up here and comes up to 176 retracement level for the high, for the low. do the same thing here
recent high. recent low you get another 176.4 retracement level. now, before i get to this one, because we have to guess where this this chart is leading us down the road. so, here, the same percentage down same% dama percentage up and down i don't mean absolute numbers. this one basically doubles the retracement, so the if you're down 3 pes, you're up six, right here, if you overlay it, we're going to 25, that's terrible 50 in the s&p where i see this market shooting based on what we've seen >> 25.50 buy that >> to steve's point, it's difficult because you're in unchartered toeerritory we had this conversation three or four weeks ago and said 24.10 was your line in the sand for the s&p 500. look in the middle of august i think it traded down to 24.17. we've somewhat been off to the races, so it seems as reasonable
as anything, especially with the vix now. >> notice how we didn't invite him back yet >> i have a great -- as to yeah. >> i have a question for steven. >> we can keep him there >> so, steven, i'm curious about the 24.80 level. looks like we might be starting to form a double top here, so people who haven't bought in now, do you think we, what makes you think that we're going to blow 324.80, which seems to be former resistance? >> looking at technicals, the more you pay at a certain level, the more chance you have at breaking through the level so if you buy at this level, bk, for those not in, you're going to use basically the 50-day moving average 24, 52 that's your level that you use as your stop out then below that, your 100 day move i moving average, 24, 26, so you
have some levels of support if you don't have the stomach for stocks >> while that chart makes since in hindsight, half a retracement that you pull half and double that op the way up is is something that works until its doesn't. so give me the most important thing you're watching if we are not going to hold this 23.80, where ever we're at. there's key levels below the market the fact things have gone up in the last six months on a nice even scale doesn't tell me anything about tomorrow. >> sure, it doesn't unless you really want to trade off these values and see what we've done in the past. this doesn't safeguard us to your point for having that big drop one day but if you look tat 50-day, the 100 day and 200 day, where 1%, 2% and basically 5% away from those levels >> all right >> you have to tell me your risk that's where you jump in >> we'll see if grasso makes it back to the desk just joking. he's coming back coming up, something strange is happening. gold is up for the first time.
we'll tell you why plus, it is a call heard around the world. andrew left betting against bitcoin here on fast and investors b took that advice falling 20% today. we'll hear the comments ahead. shareholders running scared. tell you why there could be more pain to come it's been a cool summer for hollywood this year with ticket ar es at the lowest level in 25 yes. we've got a special report much more straight ahead 5. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be.
see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit or go to xfinitymobile.com. zblmpblt last night, andrew left was on to reveal his next target >> asset value is twice the amount of the underlying bitcoin. on top of that, just go read the sec filings and you'll see, they don't even have insurance for the bitcoin. you're not guaranteed to get the -- this is bad and worse rolled up into one take a look at what's happeneded since then
>> it's hard to short this hard to get a borrow. we've mentioned it, thises one way that if you have an ira, you could play bitcoin, but you have to be worried about this premium. so i said today on "power lunch", you can have bitcoin double from here and you might not make money using this product. >> in other words -- >> 600 for that. it's 2 o $0 right now. conceivably, that could come down to the $400 range >> where was the trading at the
start of the year? i'm looking at the same trust and it was trading on january 1 around 10 bucks. wasn't bitcoin closer to 700, 800 bucks at the start of the year >> just tells you, it's been on both sides of the trade. >> you could have owned this at the start of year and p seven time it is 19 times the bitcoin's up >> so the question to go back what tim said and he made it interesting, gbtc was a flower that turned into a weed. >> do qulou consider a daisy a
weed pause they grow wild, buddy. >> we got to go. >> still ahead, gold having its best week since february hitting its highest level since election night chlgt weather got the dpe tails. you're watchi ining "fast money here's what else is coming up. >> must be crazy television actress >> that's right. >> no wonder no one goes to the movies anymore, but the box office blues could be creating a great buying opportunity we'll explain. plus, ford shares are on fire. but there's something in the charts that suggest it might be time to tap the brakes we'll tell you wt ats enhath iwh "fast money" returns
welcome back call it ishtar 2.0 because it's been bomb after bomb this summer at the box office. julia boorstin has the details >> melissa, worst than chilly. the north american box office has suffered historic declines as of last weekend, it was down 14% with no wide releases, this could be the worst late labor day this 25 years.
expected to drag it down 16% from last year, according to comscore that would make it the first summer in a decade to fail to top $4 billion in tickets sold that's despite rising ticket prices, so, what happened? bad reviews to the leichlikes o tower and the familiar ones that debuts this summer suffering from sequel fatigue. socks are higher, regal authorized a pufs plan, but have been hit hard over the past three months, amc shares declining by 40% i max and regal losing nearly a third while cinemark shares are down 15% the bright spot for studios, the international box office is up 3% turning films that disappointed in the u.s. such as pirate as 5 into global hits now u, that global strength is led by china, where the box office is at 24% this summer and
which accounted for near ly a third of all summer ticket revenue. things are on track to turn around though and eric handler says the opening of it will break the string of declining weekends he also says the upcoming slate looks strong and should produce high single digit growth for the fourth quarter >> thank you in los angeles i don't know, why do you think people aren't going to the mo e movi movies >> because they're lousy what is this one movie with my man, vin diesel. he's made like eight of them >> new ideas >> fast and furious. so, i figure, i don't know why they're lousy. what do i do when i don't know the answer take a look at what i found out. >> when was the last time you went to see a movie? >> to be honest, i don't remember >> about a month ago >> about two weeks ago >> last week
>> i mean, i don't really go to the theatre. >> i don't i only go with family. >> two months ago. >> what do you kids do >> i use netflix a lot more than movies >> netflix because it's cheaper. >> we just kind of use on demand >> what is your favorite movie >> donny darko >> the new fast and fierce 8 cinema paradiso. thank you. >> god father. >> of course it is of course it is. your father apparently is a "fast money" fan, right? >> gl yes, he is >> we should give a shout out to him. >> hi, dad >> percy, my man, come see us in new york city. >> all right >> percy >> well, one of the people mention netflix. >> a bunch did >> yeah. that's got to be a threat. no, in your view >> of course it's answer a threat the secular themes that are going on, part of this is the
interference, part is the disruption in the sector get back to if you want to own the studios. disney, to me, studio actually has been the rock that makes this thing run >> if you lock at the movies that people are getting out of their house and getting off netflix to go see, disney owns them, produces them. so disney's down about 2% year to date, but u that's probably one if you want to buy something in the space, it's netflix or you buy disney >> i actually like netflix there's nothing wrong with disney, but i think buying netflix, that's the space. everybody, on the phone, they're watching the screenings. >> yanks their content >> maybe, butcontent a lot of good shows. >> you know. >> from talking to -- take away number one take away number two, the kids don't want to go why do they want to go to the ms >> it's expensive. >> they're hanging out
the whole netflix. >> that's what they're doing >> dirty >> i'm not surprised you said that >> i shouldn't say that. they make some righteous movie theatres now >> shares. >> black light, you tell me if it's not dirty >> instead of going to the movies this labor day weekend, traders trooed fire up the barbecue so in lieu of final trades, grill and chill with so, tim, kick it off >> while this bud's for you, i think ultimately, it's about hot dogs and ketchup hines to me is the name. this bribs and mortar out there. it's up 60%. this management makes the most out of nothing stay with this name now. >> ketchup or ketchup. bk >> catch et. not cats up. so for me, what do i think b about labor day, relaxing. i don't want to drive. i go with -- i flip it on autopilot and do whatever i want to do. sitting in the back, eating a hot dog. >> grasso. >> retail space has been so
before you take out those hamburgers and hot dogs, here's what's coming up ♪ >> investors have and shares surge. but if you're tempted to take them for a spin, don't there's something in charts that looks troubling. we'll explain. plus -- >> money will always be paper. but gold will always be gold >> gold's doing something it hasn't done since 2011 an