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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 1, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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lia ttle bit lower than people expected last quarter. we'll see what it does this quarter. >> after microsoft azure numbers up 98%, we talked about that this morning a lot to pay attention to, keep your eye on the dow which continues to trudge higher on session highs, up 122. let's get over to the judge and "the half. and welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner our top subject, the state of the rally. can stocks keep climbing even if rates do as well, and is that the key for where your money goes from here michael farr is with us, president of farr miller and washington also back with us, suni harper let's begin with the markets and a snap back, a volatile day shaping up as interest rates continue to grab all of our attention.
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suni, great to see you again, welcome back >> thanks, scott, great to be here >> where are we in this rally, as volatility has picked up. >> for sure. >> concerns picked up but where rates are going. >> yes >> how does it all play out? >> honestly, i would call these growing pains, to quote our house view on the ceo side there are opportunities here there will be a little dip coming out of rates. i think we'll see higher rates from here, temporarily pushing the market down a little bit we still like the story, the trend is going to be up. the fundamentals are strong across the oard. value stocks versus growth i'm not walking away from the super growth stocks that are driving change around the world. feel pretty good about the rally continuing but as you say, volatility is up rates volatility is up, highest point 25% in the last two weeks alone. >> are we, michael, on the cusp of the long-awaited correction,
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as a result of rates >> maybe that's what everybody is worried about. the volatility we've seen in the last few days indicates, yeah, we could be turning through some choppiness here. the thing we're looking at most is the treasury refunding. as we add to that supply, does this yield curve invert? that has been, for over 30 years for me, that canary in the coal mine that i'm watching i'm looking at rates, yeah, that could be a problem >> we've been volatile, steve, the selloff earlier today. we're up 125 points on the dow best january in nearly 25 years. what happens this month as we get under way for trading today? >> the market is hitting some try at normalcy with this volatility the volatility may be excessive this week, so we'll find a middle ground. but volatility is here to stay when you hit these levels in the market and these valuations, it's natural for people to get more nervous, particularly once you've been chasing momentum, and once people that have been there in a long-time
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institution. >> the rates the straw the breaks the camel's back. >> absolutely. i'm short treasuries you look at bunds, yields are moving up. jgbs are looking up nine bibs. the rate change has accelerated. will increased supply hasten that i think it will. but i don't think we're anywhere near recession so an inverted yield curve, michael and i were talking about this beforehand, every recession has had an inverted yield curve. but not every inverted yield curve, has there been a recession. so i still think we're okay. it's consolidation but the direction of the market is still higher. >> the highs for the ten-year note curve the dow recovered and is moving higher even as rates are moving to the highs of the day. >> sure. >> higher rates and higher stocks can co-exist. >> of course, especially when
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the new orders component of the ism is at 65, that's a good thing. let's not forget where the value of the u.s. dollar is right now. a lot of that is because you're seeing emerging market currencies that are tethered to the price of oil, they're rising rates can rise because of positive economic news and rates can also raise, to michael's point, because of higher deficits and because of more supplies, the federal reserve reduces their balance sheet. i don't think that leads to the impending grand correction, whether it be in the fixed income or the equities market. i think there is higher volatility, and that's a good thing for the markets right now to digest. as i said yesterday, i think in the near term, where the equities market goes from here largely depends on what we hear this afternoon from apple. >> there have only been three times in the last 60 years where you've seen decline in both the equity markets and the ten-year at the same time and each of those immediately was a recession.
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so i don't think we're there yet. so in answer to your question, you can see credit go down, meaning rates go up, without equity markets as a matter of fact, that's normal >> but i think people have to remember too, that corrections are normal i mean, we're just so used to not having one, and the market -- there we go, what's a bear market? how do these things happen we've heard old people talk about bear markets we haven't seen one in ten years. i mean, there's a whole phalanx of traders on the treat who have never seen a bear market >> we expect earnings to be pretty good, suni. we're about to get to the heart of earnings season you can say for many of the key areas it begins tonight with apple, amazon, alphabet. >> big names, yes. >> some of the industrial names have reported well and their outlooks have been good. >> yep >> things like boeing are moving higher, and others are earnings going to be able to trump, so to speak, the move-in
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rates, will they be able to deal with rates moving up, because they're moving up for a good reason >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. if you look at the economics of the rate move, you're talking just shy of 4% before you're restrictive on earnings and stock prices we're nowhere near that. animal spirits, maybe they're animal bogey men, you hit something like a 3%, we're past 275 as a benchmark there, and i think things retrench. i don't know if i would call it a correction as much as a consolidation. you see sector rotation, i think you see some push more for those value stocks that have been -- people are talking about as the big movers in 2018 so i think we see more of that than we see any kind of recession or real drop or correction >> correction would be bought, right, of any kind of magnitude, is that what you guys think? >> i would say once the correction presents itself, you want to be incredibly patient in buying it. a lot of people will have the mentality, okay, let's step in, step in, step in i think that leads to an
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environment where it could be a lot deeper than people think i also think the thing people haven't had in a long time, we've had modest price corrections over the last couple of years we haven't had a time correction, which is far more painful. a correction that occurs over the course of six months, boy, that's going to lead to a lot of investors churning themselves in a negative capacity. >> we haven't really had this big flush or rush out of bonds into stocks. couldn't you theoretically, if people are going to move out of bonds, push rates up, and you get that money moving into equities, because there's a good reason to be in equities, with a synchronized global recovery, earnings coming in strong. why wouldn't we see that >> i think we've seen that the last couple of years, that's one of the big drivers of the rally we've seen now people are nervous it's not an "if," it's a "when." people are more cautious, sentiment has changed. they're diversifying more in asset classes. i think that's happened. >> i think there's plenty of cash out there too i don't think where anybody is really needing, wanting for
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investable -- >> you've been looking at a lot of in-flows, it's almost like a weekly inflow. >> right in addition, we've never been through any kind of a pullback with the algos in place, the algorithm traders in place i think that's still a wait and see. i know but the stops in place, but that's a worry to me >> it's a worry to me also, you don't know how they'll respond, what a relative value trade is suni i think makes a great point. i don't believe you'll see a mass exodus from bonds into equities if you look at a bond holder, why they hold bonds, it's because it's safety. if you're owning treasuries, maybe you won't get a return, but if you own a maturity, you'll get all your money back if you're that conservative, where you've got this big weighting or decent weighting in bonds, you're definitely not going into equities at these
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levels so i don't think that occurs >> greenspan says we're in the midst of two bubbles, stocks and bonds. >> i disagree with that. if there is a bubble, i think the bubble maybe is in equity-like type of investments. we talked about that yesterday, steve and iwere talking off-air, high yield over the last couple of years a lot of that has been utilized as a replacement some of the dividend strategies we've seen over the last couple of years over the last couple weeks, i keep talking about these bond proxies. boy, that's the first place you're looking right now to pare back your holdings i don't think the bubble is in equities or bonds. i think it's in products that look more like a bond and act like an equity >> like direct lending funds i would be hard-pressed to walk into a room of family offices or ultrahigh net worth and say, who is not in a direct lending fund. >> the fundamentals are pretty
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strong, broad across the world as well as across sectors. it's hard to argue with that when i think of a bubble, i think of irrational behavior this is pretty rational. i think some of the growth momentum stocks, maybe but there's still a tremendous amount of value in the market. >> greenspan talked about irraci irratiir rational exuberance in 1996. the do you went through 4,000, 5,000, 6,000 in like a year and a half it was like 8,000 eight months later. it goes up 33% last time after greenspan said -- he wasn't wrong, but markets can go a lot higher >> i know we're going to talk about that the valuation on chipotle is much more egregious and much more of a bubble valuation than what we've seen on facebook or google. >> absolutely.
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>> let's turn to facebook, microsoft. both stocks hitting new all time highs today on the back of strong earnings. you've been trading facebook, following the earnings the stock is up again today. >> yes so i've had a position, i was half listening to the conference call last time i was in the office, half working stock traded down eight bucks. i bought it, turned around for a quick 11-point profit. that's the type of volatility that gets bought when the market corrects, i don't think you'll be looking at markets. you'll be looking at situations that are really out there, inordinately penalized >> did facebook allay a lot of the fears out there that the change they made to their business was going to have a dramatic impact? >> very responsible conference call, very up front. he said what it will be. also, you look at the ad revenue growth, phenomenal who cares if some of the users are down
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as long as you have the demographics, and everything else working for it, the stock continues to work. >> microsoft i mean, i almost don't want to discuss it because it has been so stealthily -- >> you don't want to jinx it >> yeah, i don't want to jinx it what a quarter, scott. 98% revenue growth on the cloud side okay, we understand that but you even had office 365 come in with incredibly strong 40 plus percent revenue growth. they're hitting on all marks i love the comments from satya nadella talking about technology companies and trust. i don't know if everyone picked up on that, but emphasizing that the customers, the relationship they've developed over the years, it's all about the client trusting microsoft as the brand. i think that's so incredibly important. they've done a great job i bought more this morning, i think it's going above 100 >> you like tech as you talk about -- i guess you have to be somewhat selective,
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though if you say value -- you do say -- >> it's still the momentum in stocks, those are the ones you're not going to short in any way, shape, or form, they're changing the way we live, we don't want to get in the way of that one i talk about value, i'm talking about construction companies and some of the infrastructure stuff that's coming our way. those stocks are really undervalued, we think. there's tremendous amount there. and in the energy space as well. and financials, of course, i always like financials >> you guys believe in the value trade, that energy is going to continue, financials will get more momentum? >> certainly the fundamentals in the picture that's developing for the banks, with higher rates and their ability to actually make some money now on money market and some of their short term instruments, that is a lot more powerful than most people would be aware, particularly when you're talking about just fractions of a point but they're really meaningful. and i think too, energy, that pendulum is swinging back. the value stocks from that
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russell 1000, yeah, that's where you have to start to look to be able to hit them where they aim. >> real quick on energy, you have oil sitting at 65, it's been here for a while. the refiners, i do not like the refiners with the oil sustaining at 65. for financials, we talk a lot about the big banks. and the big banks obviously will benefit. net interest margins and rising rates. they'll also benefit on the trading side, from the increase in volatility. that's a positive. and let's not just think about financials in terms of banks let's this of the exchanges, which are doing very well. let's think of a lot of the insurers which are doing well also let's take financials and include all of it. >> one of the other great debates in the market as we look at valuation here, and some people say there's euphoria, greenspan and others mentioning bubbles, is international stocks versus the u.s. and the better place to be. you still, even after great runs in some of these stocks, like emerging markets >> we do like emerging markets
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when you back into a fundamental view of the markets, volatility is low, current accounts are clean, reserves are robust, there's a lot going on with emerging markets we just came back from three weeks in asia, wow, is it moving and in addition to the fundamentals, the new economy that is china and the stocks that are coming up there, for the first time in a long time the service sector, consumer-led stocks, are the bigger exports, more than 50% of the exports, versus the traditional ag, steel, those type of things out of china it really is something to watch. we see a tremendous amount of interest there from our client base also, you think about the technical side of that trade, when the msei adds the china shares in june, that's a tremendous incentive for people to start looking harder at china. we just came off our china conference, huge demand from european investors for the first time in a long time. >> would you be overweight to emerging or overseas stocks
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compared to the u.s. >> we like global stocks, we like emerging markets. probably equal personal view, emerging markets. i like the technical play there. >> when you talk about greenspan saying things, he's been around for a long, long time, and if you're not -- if you're not regarding this as a completely new playbook with things that have never happened before in his entire involvement career, you'll be married to what's happened in the past, where there's been, you know, this wild exuberance. that's not now that's not now, with the emerging markets that's not now with -- >> you don't hear anybody saying there's a bubble in emerging markets, equities. >> absolutely not. >> those questions are raised singularly about the u.s >> i'll disagree i've been in some conversations with large investors, they're not -- >> i'm going to say there's not a voice here or there that thinks it. but the broad conversation is that emerging markets and europe are cheap, the u.s. is
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expensive. >> but you've got -- you've also got a situation, from greenspan's perspective, where the u.s. economy is doing just fine, the recovery is happening just fine. we're seeing some wage gains we've got unemployment at 4.1% that continues to fall and all of a sudden, you've got a huge fiscal cut and you're going to add to the deficit. this is a -- there's a lot to worry a guy like greenspan >> suni, what are you telling clients, i saw goldman sachs this morning lowering their forecast on the value of the u.s. dollar. we're talking about emerging markets. how much of the emerging market story is really a currency story and what the dollar is doing here >> i think it's a great question and i think currencies have been part of it the carrier trade has been a big part of portfolios for the last year at least. i think there aren't a lot of overheated currencies in the emerging markets now so dollar helps as it weakens. the overall health story globally, the synchronization of that growth helps the markets. >> you like dollar weakness? >> yes
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slowing weakness but still declining, yes >> that's why there's this conundrum of trying to come up with why you shouldn't invest in the u.s. is difficult. you've got the declining dollar, the tax reform which is transformational risine inging rates, you're goio derail that entire story >> i agree, you can't expect the dollar to decline as much as it has, i think it's down 4%, if it's going to go down that much in 2018, throw out all the playbooks and figure something else out i do think you have to have a fundamental understanding of why the dollar is going down is it more europe's strength or is it more about something in the u.s. >> great points. >> and that could put the brakes on it too, as yields go higher yields go higher, that dollar could strengthen and the fall could slow or stop or even reverse some >> the dollar is competing with the currencies obviously overseas
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butwith rates overseas, you're on the cusp of the ecb fully pulling back from qe once they do, i think you may see more weakness in the dollar. but to me, the best place to invest in the u.s. is not the s&p that's benefiting more, 40% of those earnings come from overseas, but the mid-cap companies, the ones that are domestically focused, will be the biggest beneficiaries of deregulation and the tax bill. >> part of my point is that, why do you even need to distinguish between smaller and mid-cap stocks versus big cap stocks in the kind of environment we're in, with the tax reform and the other positive catalysts, the dollar, that we already mentioned? and the cash flows that are going to be increasing, the ability to buy back stock in huge numbers >> it's a leverage and there's greater leverage to the tax bill and deregulation for u.s.-centric companies than there is for multinationals. it's beneficial to both. >> on the other side, the large
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cap have the benefit of the global growth and the repatriation again, different reasons for each one, but it's how we end up where we are, which we like stocks >> would it surprise anybody, you get through some volatility, as long as rates don't get too far away from us, that you could have a similar year to last year this year. why couldn't that be possible? >> you've seen multiple years, successive years where you've had gains like last year's as a matter of fact you've had scenarios where there have been three years of gains, 30%, 30%, 26%. i looked at these numbers. just because you've had a year like last year, and a year like the year before, doesn't really matter all that much in terms of what happens >> it all depends on how much you think tax reform, suni, is in the market now, and earnings expectations >> i think the tax reforms are in the market to some extent again, it's not slowing down the fundamental growth we're seeing across the board in many, many
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sectors. again, this is such a broad based, fundamental story here. feels good >> the biggest reason why 2018 could be like 2017 is because nobody thinks that '18 could be like '17 >> that's a good point >> the consensus has said, we think stocks are going higher in 2018, we think the markets will be okay in '18, but they're not going to be anything like we saw in 2017. >> i don't know, the prevailing thought in davos was optimism across the board in ways you hadn't heard before. right? >> i wouldn't count on strategists leading the charge if you're going to play that card, you've got to say everybody is so bullish, that means the markets are going to go down. >> i think once you start to see the earnings actually come through, we're anticipating earnings now in the markets, but all of a sudden, you start to see quarter over quarter of 12 and 15 and 20% earnings growth, that's going to i think ignite probably another leg up. >> it's been great having you here >> thanks, scott
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>> suni harford joining us exclusively today. here's what's coming up on "the halftime report." next up, the call of the day. one analyst orders a slash on chipotle plus a big day of earnings after the bell apple, mazon, alphabet the traders are ready to take their positions. our data partners on what happens when the s&p jumps more than 5% in january for the rest of the year, the market is then up 75% of the time with an average return of 13% for the s&p, 10% for the dow, and 9.6% for the nasdaq. for more, go to sentence.com/kensho. "the halftime report" is back in two minutes.
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welcome back to "the halftime report. shares of chipotle under pressure today ubs downgrading that stock all the way to sell. the firm says sluggish sales and struggling brand perception spell more downside for investors. it's our call of the day emmitt, it's a brutal note everything they say, worst brand perception than when the food safety crisis began. review trends continue to trend downward they've dropped below pre-food safety crisis lows a new ceo could maybe be a
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catalyst but long term challenges remain. is that right? >> listen, the price target is 290. it's at 310 right now. i disagree that there's a sell call on this that being said, i think the stock saw the bounce to 345 back in january i think the biggest concern for this company is that they raised prices in 20% of the locations back in april. they raised, in november, on an additional 40% now mid-january, they raise another 40%. scott, when they did this in 2014, they had four executive quarters of traffic trend declines with eps growing at the same time. you saw the p/e multiple depress by 30% i think raising prices, given what you're highlighting, the perception issues they have right now, it doesn't leave any opportunity for the stock to recover. >> can a new ceo, no matter how dramatic the name may be, cause
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changes until the perception of what's happened to this company, michael? >> absolutely. >> why hasn't it happened yet? >> this stock has been kind of a cult following and they've lost a lot of their cult, the kids who were eating there five days a week i talked last week about this stock in my office with a group of kids from miami and ohio, doing their thing in washington. they asked about -- i said, how many of you still go to chipotle they're losing the kids they've been supporting them every one of them was there three times that week. so they are seeing a return. i think it's all about managing that image and bringing back that diner and they know their demographics i think the right leadership can actually accomplish that >> it was so, though, priced, the valuations are sky high, but it was before -- you know, it was on these expectations that this thing was going to the moon hypergrowth, and that was going to continue, and that's why investors were buying the stock. haven't you changed the dynamic
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from hypergrowth to hanging onto the customers you still have >> i think there's an in between. you can still have reasonable growth i would be hesitant to accept the ubs call here for a sell i wouldn't be short this stock >> weiss >> this company does not deserving the multiple that it has. what's interesting about the ubs report, he raises number from 892 to 949 for this year but he's still slightly below consensus, a buck below consensus next year. in what universe does a company that hasn't executed for an extended period of time, has had declining growth, and recovering growth, deserve this kind of multiple it doesn't >> you have to believe -- i'm going to believe that because of the extensive search that's going on for a new ceo, and bill ackman's presence in that environment of doing that, they're not going to -- >> true. ron johnson is available >> come on, stop it.
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they're not going to whiff -- they're going to get somebody that makes you say, okay >> what do you mean? i don't understand your comment, "stop. >> whatever, man >> why is this one -- >> you're going to say because ron johnson -- >> i'm not talking ron johnson i'm talking valeant. he bet on him. >> he didn't put him there >> he bet on him that's as good as putting him there. >> man, they've got a search firm involved. i just think the risk on that is to the upside, because he knows how important a new ceo matters, with a track record and a good story to tell. >> there's only one ceo that -- >> you're entitled to your opinion. if you want to say, his recent performance means i don't want to truste the guy for anything. but i'm suggesting that -- >> i think he's smart guy. i'm just saying, picking ceos is not his forte. >> he's not picking them
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individually he's involved. >> assume he picks a good ceo. am i going to pay for that now >> part of the bet, if you're going to be long this stock, is that a new ceo will help this company get back maybe not all the way, but to some level of where this company was to justify invests coming back >> it's got to be patrick doyle. >> you've got to see more for this company i wouldn't be short this stock i wouldn't be long either. you've got to wait they've got too many headwinds right now, too much erosion. the numbers just don't -- as steve says, the numbers don't support these prices >> it's the wrong strategy you're in the environment where your competitors are in a discounting strangl ining straty so why are you raising prices in the middle of that >> that's a great point. >> i don't understand that they've got to hurry up with the
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search on the ceo. and again, domino's, patrick doyle, look what he did there. patrick doyle comes -- >> if they brought that name out, what would happen >> the stock would surge >> stock goes up >> would that be good enough for you? >> if it's a high quality ceo who's turned around companies before, sure i'm not entrenched i'm just looking at the only thing i could look at, which is the history. i don't think papa is a very good ceo he came into perigo into valeant. perigo was at the bottom >> when you sit where the debt was, 30, $40 billion of debt, you don't move a freighter in five minutes i'm not suggesting -- >> i'm just looking at his track record at his prior company. >> okay. >> the stock was -- >> ron johnson is ron johnson. i mean, okay he would be the first one to admit that was a mistake
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we'll see who he picks this time >> so he's going to pick him >> we'll see who they pick okay by the way, "the halftime report" is going on the road >> you taking stephen? >> just to get away from me. >> we are live tomorrow, tomorrow, u.s. bank stadium in minneapolis. that is the home of the super bowl and we're going to be joined by al michaels calling the game for nbc. brian cornell, local target company, obviously he's the ceo, he'll be with us as well, we're excited for that you can watch that, catch all of that, jim cramer is going to drop by, obviously he's excited about the game too you can watch the super bowl on sunday night, 6:30, nbc. >> cornell is a guy i would bet on >> next in the blitz, the trades on nvidia, ebay. "halftime report" is back after this
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hello, everyone, i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update at this hour. a man who drove a man into a crowd of worshippers near a london mosque has been convicted of murder and attempted murder a crown court found darren osborne guilty in the june 2017 attack that killed one and injured nine others. a rocket fired from the syrian kurdish held enclave hit a restaurant in the turkish border town, injuring at least five people. that's according to turkish officials. turkey launched a cross-border offensive into syria on january 20th tonight's execution of a texas father who shot and killed his two young daughters will go on as scheduled. that is the word from a federal appeals court to attorneys for john battaglia they had appealed on claims of mental incompetence. britain's prince william and wife kate arrived in norway this morning, greeted by norway's
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crown prince and his wife. they are on their third day of a four-day visit to sweden and norway scotty, back to you. >> sue, thank you so much. apple, alphabet, amazonall due for numbers today. >> cash story, it's built in already that we know the product story is going to be disappointing. they're probably going to cut the guidance on iphone x's i think it's about how are they going to manage the cash i know -- >> just to be clear, they're not going to give you unit guidance on the iphone. >> right >> you're not going to be able to know that right away. they may cut their revenue number as a result of fewer than expected sales >> agreed. >> you'll have to read into that but my point being, given what the stock has not done of late as the rest of the market, michael, has risen, how much is rising on that number tonight? >> i think a lot more to the downside than the upside, actually i think people are waiting to see how bad this thing is going
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to be. and if it's not awful, i think the stock might hold in. but there's -- if you don't get the volumes and you do have to look at the cash and you do have to look at the numbers, i think that the weakness, any little bit of weakness could cause a more profound selloff in the stock. >> the other interesting thing, weiss, correct me if i'm wrong, i'm sure you will even correct me if i'm right, but apple usually runs up into a number. apple usually goes up into -- >> it's up today >> i know, but it's been down fairly consistently, if not flat, into this print. what does that mean? >> i think the cycle is of buying in advance of the quarter happened sooner this time in the last quarter than normally plus, you know, just the -- it's so astounding, the cuts that you're hearing about in the supply chain, that there is no run-up if those numbers are true, if they have to cut from an estimated 40 million to 20
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million, how bad a miss is that for management i mean, that's incredible. you know and i hear you about the cash management story i think you need a turnover in the shareholder base and it's going to be at a lower level if that's what it is because this is a consumer product company. i'll give you these words. ibm. east m eastman kodak. polaroid those are all companies that thought they were impregnable, that they couldn't go down >> blackberry. >> i'll give you that. >> okay. throw them all out there but -- >> i never pegged you for an apple sycophant. >> that's a sycophant? how about a reality check? i mean, you're talking about ibm and kodak and polaroid >> he didn't say xerox >> i just forgot >> ibm is still there. >> look, i just think that you have to realize there's risk to the story, that their margins on
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their iphones are far, far -- >> are you still long, by the way? >> i'm still the position. >> okay. give me something on amazon. >> amazon pretty much owns the customer, right? 70% of online sales are still going through amazon they own that customer they're expanding. their synergies and the deals they're making in the marketplace are remarkable it's hard to bet against them and hard to find a compelling valuation case for the stock >> you're never going to find a valuation case that's -- >> some day. >> well, i don't know. but you wouldn't buy the stock because of valuation >> i can't buy the stock because of the valuation, right. we stick with a very strict discipline and i can't buy the stock because of the valuation that discipline has saved me over years >> okay. joe? >> what's interesting to me is for the very first time, you think about these three names, alphabet, amazon, apple. if all three of them went down tonight, i think apple would be the one least likely for investors to want to buy
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which is amazing to me amazon lower, alphabet lower, buyers -- >> tell me about it, quickly >> it's a compelling growth story, their growth is tremendous, they have no competition. >> i own it. i'm going to keep owning it. >> all right "halftimrertisacinwo nutes." bk t years. door opens dad? but today, you're ready to try something new. mom would be proud. your mother hated garlic. with blue apron, any night is a chance to see what cooking can do.
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fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. oh thanks. say, yeah, i took your advice and had geico help with renters insurance- it was really easy. easy. that'd be nice. phone: for help with chairs, say "chair." phone: for help with bookcases, say "bookcase." bookcase. i thought this was the dresser? isn't that the bed? phone: i'm sorry, i didn't understand. phone: for help with chairs, say "chair." does this mean we're not going out? book-case. see how easy renters insurance can be at geico.com. all right. we want to welcome you back to
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"the halftime report." in a moment we'll take you out to white sulphur springs in virginia the president of the united states is expected to speak momentarily. paul ryan may have just introduced the president, in fact there is president trump greeting some of the other members of congress on the stage, making his way to the podium now let's -- he's making his way down the line just a bit before he steps up to the podium. in fact there is the president of the united states, donald trump. >> thank you, paul and mitch, for the introduction and for your tremendous leadership you folks have done -- i just looked at some numbers, you've even done better than you thought, i think, based on what we just saw about ten minutes ago. i want to thank you to the governor of this incredible state, my very good friend jim
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justice, and his wonderful wife cathy who are with us. and jim is now a proud member of the republican party, who was a democrat he switched over, right? you don't see that too often maybe we'll see it more and more but thank you, jim and the hotel is beautiful and everything is beautiful. we appreciate it it's great to be among so many friends for the second time this week tuesday was an incredible evening, as we were all inspired and i really mean that we were inspired by america's heroes and uplifted by everyone who sacrificed in the fight for freedom. they were and are incredible people that we saw that night, and tremendous courage and one of the people, i have to say, boy, you got a very big hand, steve. steve scalise. a great hand
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and we're all truly blessed to be americans before going any further, i want to send our prayers to everyone affected by the train accident yesterday, especially to the family of the person who was so tragically killed. our thoughts are with the victims and their loved ones and thank you. with us today onstage is our incredible leadership team and they really have, if you look, just look at the what's happened in the last short period of time, without them i could have never won the presidency, i guess. i don't know could i have won the presidency without them huh? steve, yes, right? i don't know but they've become very good friends. and we're now in battle together and in friendship together senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. thank you, mitch great guy. that was a big win we had,
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mitch. senate majority whip john cornyn, great job, thank you how the majority whip steve scalise, again, steve, thank you. house majority leader kevin did they forget your name? what's going on here they didn't put his name up but that's okay. it's the first time that's ever happened that will never happen again working together we have accomplished extraordinary things for the american people over the last year i really believe this is just the fwining. paul ryan called me the other day and i don't know if i'm supposed to say this but he said to me. he's never ever seen the republican party so united, so
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much in like with each other but literally the word united he used it's the most yunitedhe's seen the party. i see it too i have so many friends in this group. there's a great coming together that i don't think either party has seen for many, many years. he called me i thought it was nice. every day we're removing government burdens and allowing our citizens to follow their heart and live out their dreams. we believe in strong families and we believe in strong lawyers. we believe in the rule of law and we support the men and women of law enforcement
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we believe every american has the right to grow up and have access to a really great job we know that for americans, nothing, absolutely nothing, is out of reach we don't know the meaning of the word quit. we don't quit and the republican hasn't quit. if we did, we wouldn't be here today. we would be sitting home saying that was a tough year instead of that was one of greatest years in the history of politics in the history of our country for party, what we've done and what we accomplished i don't think it's been done and not by much.
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i give these people tremendous credit that was people able to act under pressure while we had a great year, we weren't given credit for it. in one year we knocked out more regulations than anybody supreme court judges so many successes but when we got the great tax cut bill and we call it the tax cutting jobs bill we got that, it was like putting it all in a box and wrapping it with a beautiful ribbon. we started getting credit not only for that but all the other things we did during the years it's amazing the way that happened i was surprised.
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we got a lot of credit from a lot of people and they're saying while he had a lot of accomplishment and then they went on to do the thing. the fact is, you understand that we really did. we got a lot of credit it all came together in that final month. i give everybody in this room really kudos together we're building a safe, strong and proud america since the election we've created 2.4 million jobs that's unthinkable that doesn't include all the things happening you're going to see numbers that get even better. unemployment claims are at a 45-year low, which is something.
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african-american and hispanic unemployment have reached the lowest levels recorded that's something very special. when i made that statement the other night it was zero movement from the democrats they sat there stone cold, no smiles, no reply wow would have thought they would have clapped a little bit which tells you perhaps they rather see us not do well than see our country do great that's not good. we have to change that we have eliminated more regulations in our first year than any administration has ever eliminated and that means four years, eight years or in one instance 16 years. in one year we knocked out more regulations. it's an amazing thing.
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i happen to think that is every bit as important toward our success as the tax cuts. i have many business friends and many people in business came to me and say that including small businesses they say the fact they no longer have to go through years of turmoil in getting approved and getting approvals and getting rule changes and getting all sorts of things and getting old while waiting to get them. that's something we sign into law the biggest tax cuts and reforms into american history. included in there is the individual mandate we repealed it that's a big one that's so big. by itself that would be a big achievement. we take it as well that was included one of the great potential
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fields anywhere in the world and i never appreciated so much. a friend of mine called up in that world and that business said is it true you're thinking about it i think we're going to get it. i said are you kidding that's the biggest thing by itself after that i said make sure that's in the bill it was amazing how that hadden impact that had a very big impact on me, paul i really didn't care about it. when i heard that everybody wanted it for 40 years i've been trying to get it approved. it's great for the people of alaska thaer very happy campers
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don, thank you we're always good together we never had a problem with it you think about it, that by itself is a big bill the individual mandate by itself is a big, powerful bill. i want to thank senate finance chairman and a very spectacular man orrin hatch. he's -- i love listening to him speak. he said once i'm the single greatest president in his lifetime he's a young man.
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kevin, where are you what a job he was working what are you average sleep for about four weeks about maybe nothing. i think he had no average. you did a great job. nobody knows it better than you. thank you. maybe we'll do a phase two are you ready for that i think you're ready the typical family of four will save roughly $2,000 a year to lower tax rates for hard working americans, we nearly doubled the standard deduction for everyone now the first $24,000 earned by a married couple is completely tax free when i came into this beautiful
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building just a little while ago, one of the people said i just got a check and i have $221 more than i had last year at this time in my envelope that's what we were waiting. we were waiting for february and we got hit with these corporations giving bonuses to everybody that nancy pelosi called deplorable. does that make sense deplorable in crumbs that's not crumbs. that's a lot of money. we also double the child tax credit that's so helpful to so many we have gone from one of the highest business tax rates to one of the most competitive, one of the lower one

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