tv Closing Bell CNBC April 6, 2018 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
lower. thank you, kenny guys, it's not necessarily the huge risk aversion we are seeing most of it in stocks >> off more than 700 points again. wow. what a week, month >> thanks for watching "power lunch reque lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> announcer: this is cnbc breaking news. market selloff >> yeah, quite a selloff it is hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm wilfred frost good afternoon stock sinking down more than 740 points at the low of the session. we're just fractionally above that level at the moment now >> exactly this has just happened in the last hour or so. we can attribute it to maybe some comments coming out of the white house. we'll get to all of that, though let's see where we stand the dow and s&p are having their worst day in two weeks with nearly 3% drop for the dow down 2.5% for the s&p.
all major averages losing their gains so we're on a third weekly drop out of four. >> it's been a week of cause and effect with president trump and the stock market with almost every action causing a reaction for how we got to today's selloff, we asked kayla in washington to track trump's actions and dom chu here to recap the market's reaction to those different developing causes kayla, over to you >> we woke up monday morning with china implementing tariffs on $3 billion on u.s. imports from wine, nuts, dried fruit and aluminum >> so, as we talk about what happened when kayla talked about those particular moves, we saw the markets fell out of bed and did stay low we didn't close exactly off the lows of the session, but as you can see there, it was a steady progression throughout the course of the day.
everyone feeling as though the dow, the markets, the s&p 500, everything else was going to have that real risk aversion feel to it because the trade war that could be looming was going to be something that really drove the markets back that was a huge part of that move lower it did stay that way at least for monday trading, guys. >> on tuesday the u.s. went a step further with efforts to challenge chinese intellectual property violations. the usdr published a detailed breakdown of 300 plus products representing $50 billion in chinese exports to u.s. ranging from syringes to diswashers at some point in the undisclosed future. >> as we talk about what happened with that, the markets did seem to price that in initially. we saw a big move to the low -- down to the lows of the session. as you can see with the chart we have here. and all of a sudden as trade sessions started to perhaps ease a little bit, traders came back in saying, maybe this is a buyable moment
we finished up 389 points so it got us out of correction territory phase. people placing a little less of the emphasis on the negative side of things traders coming in to buy that market >> but that changed again late tuesday, just hours after the ustr published that list overnight. china unveiled its own tariff proposal on $50 billion in u.s. goods. that was a step up for the previous set and this time it targeted u.s. farmers and manufacturers in trump country. economic adviser larry kudlow on wednesday said both sides were making empty threats as a negotiating tactic and press secretary sarah sanders said some short-term pain might be necessary on a long-term road to economic success. >> kayla, as we talk about this negotiating aspect of this entire trade kind of skirmish we're talking about right now, traders are talking about this idea it might just be a negotiating tactic all of a sudden we could see calmer heads prevail because of that, the markets steadily rise throughout the
course of the session. actually, we finish up again we're talking at this point about two days positive in a row in the wake of that big down day because of trade, kayla. >> but then that changed yesterday, dom, thursday evening the president making that surprise announcement that he wanted the u.s. trade representative to study tariffs on an additional $100 billion of goods in light of china's decision to retaliation against those farmers. ambassador lighthizer called trump's response an appropriate one to what he called china's unjustified retaliation. though trump said the u.s. was still open for talks >> still open for talks maybe meaning calmer heads prevail the dow was about a percent higher a bit of a volatile session. still, we're talking about a market that seems to be resilient and seems to be trying to price in some idea that we could come through this relat e relatively unscathed
for that reason we are sitting at a three-day win streak. >> today the president defiant this morning saying in a taped radio interview that the trade dispute might cause some economic pain, but that the u.s. will emerge stronger his treasury secretary steve mnuchin told cnbc the administration doesn't want a trade war, but didn't deny that we might be witnessing the beginning of one >> kayla, that's what brings us to where we're at today. as you can see, overall the dow industrials started off lower and have pretty much drifted lower throughout the course of the entire afternoon whether or not we stay that way becomes big. still, we're at a weekend. a lot of traders say we don't like to see selloffs we don't see a massive selloff on a friday. the way the price action is shaping up, doesn't feel very good for some of the bulls on wall street, guys. >> that's how we got here. thank you both dom chu, kayla tausche some comments out of the white house, secretary mnuchin on
cnbc we heard from larry kudlow in a brown bag lunch with reporters neither one giving the market what they wanted to hear so here we are, down 750. >> if we sum up the week as a whole, coming into today the dow was up 1.7%. clearly we're shedding about 3% but down 1.3% or so for the week as negative as it feels right now, down 750 and we're at the lows of today's session, we were higher for the week coming into today. the other risk-off factor, the dollar is broadly flat for the week and the bull market has ended where it was we haven't seen a huge rush into safe haven assets. >> we didn't hear from jerome powell this afternoon, some bond traders saying he gave the green light for bond yields to go lower, which they have now, instead of higher. chinese officials responded pretty quickly to the president's latest threats of an additional $100 billion in tariffs. we have the latest out of beijing for us >> thanks so much. secretary mnuchin might be playing down the idea that the
u.s. and china are headed for a trade war but the chinese are definitely gearing up for one. the commerce ministry today scrambled together a last-minute press briefing to say, china is well prepared. if the u.s. releases its new list of $100 billion in products, we will immediately fight back without any hesitation we won't rule out any option the ministry also conjured talk out of washington that the two are holding private discussions on trade saying, china has noticed similar information about negotiations from various american officials, but this is not what has happened. recently, u.s. and chinese economic and trade officials haven't had any negotiations on trade issues now, the government has been messaging to the public here that china is the victim in all of this. that's really playing into the way that the president xi jinping likes to present himself
to the public, as a defender of china against western or u.s. aggression and the messaging is really having an effect on chinese social media today two of the top trending hashtags are fight back the trade war and china is not afraid. and another interesting development that just started happening today is we've been seeing online calls for american goods. now, here are some examples. boycott american products starting from today, no iphones and no american cars also after japanese and korean, it's time to boycott american goods. now, right now this is just talk on social media but there have been precedents in the past where the government here has and -- can and has encouraged boycotts by fanning anti-foreign sentiment as well as nationalism for countries where they are not really happy with, such as japan and south korea. and the danger really is for
american companies, is that these boycotts start to impact some of their locally made products in addition to imports. that's just another way that the government can retaliate if it chooses to do so >> that's a great point, eunice. i remember now what they did in south korea, had a huge impact right away that wasn't even that long ago we'll see if there's a grassroots movement here eunice, thanks, appreciate it. joining us for more, victor jones, director of trading at td ameritrade tim anderson, managing direct irat mnd partners here at post nine welcome to you both. tim, from your point of view, why do youle think we've all of a sudden sold off so much into the close? >> i certainly think it's a combination of the trade banter, even more than that, it's the tremendous uncertainty that it costs over the market as to what the final, final result is going
to be. and given that a lot of companies might have 30 days to make comments on all the trade proposals and then the u.s. would have 180 days to decide how and if they're going to implement everything, you're talking months in advance before you got to a final solution to this, or a final agreement, resolution, whatever you want to call it. and it's that old adage that the market can handle bad news but it really hates uncertainty. >> victor, as you've been discussing various trades with clients, what would you say is the driving force behind the trades they've been making has it been trade? >> they've certainly remained engaged. i would agree 100% that the uncertainty is creating kind of an element of a risk-off kind of feeling amongst clientele. woo we've been focusing on the commodities market in particular the grain, meats and energies,
all a little weaker on threats of chinese retaliation that created an interesting opportunity earlier in the week. those are all input costs into the consumer staples you saw them lead on wednesday early here in trading today you saw consumer staples a little stronger as well hormel, campbell's soup, kellogg, just to name a few. they're starting to back off in late day trading telecom and utilities, 96% of the revenues of those companies inside the s&p 500 come domestically but this is a risk-off day you can see it across the board, guys >> you mean, victor, for those sectors of the s&p, not the s&p 500 as a whole >> correct, correct. >> that's where people could go to dodge we're looking at those sectors hold up relatively well. let's bring in steve liesman jerome powell did speak this afternoon. steve, the selloff worsened after his comments what did he say or not say >> yeah, hard to know who the real culprit is with this
downdraft. some people are blaming secretary mnuchin for his comments about there being potential for a trade war. and then i think some said powell talked a little more affirmative will about the possibility of inflation ticking up, 2% goal, saying it was on the rise, going to be on the rise in the coming months. i thought they had said that all before but there was commentary about that most of all was the idea that perhaps with the soft jobs report this morning and the uncertainty in the market downdraft when it comes to the trade issues out there, that maybe the chair -- there was some expectation the chair might back off fed policy. i think it misreads how the fed reacts to these fiscal policy issues because the fed tends to wait to see what happens before it changes its forecast object its outlook or strategy and plan but there might have been some expectation out there. if you look at the tale of the tape, there was a downdraft that accompanied powell's reiteration of policy as we understood it after the last meeting.
>> steve, of course, earlier you interviewed steve mnuchin. one headline was the topic of are we in a trade war yet, what was his response that was another aspect that spooked markets. >> he said, we hope to avoid it. that's not the potential but he said there's the potential for a trade war. i think the other thing that's out there today that is -- it's new is this idea of -- first said by the president and then reiterated by others, by the white house today, this idea of collateral damage being accepted when asked about the market and the market being down, they said you have to break a few fingers, whatever the phrase is, in order to get something done, there's an acceptable level of pain. the president said there will be a little pain out there. secretary mnuchin talked about it as well they're not really board -- i was listening to kevin hasert on msnbc. they're not going to be deterred
by this in pursuit of their goal they keep reiterating that this will ultimately lead to a better economic place in the meantime, we're down 670 points. >> tim, we're also watching the s&p near the 200-day moving average. all of a sudden everyone is focused on that number how important is that going into the weekend? >> you know, it's somewhat significant, at we've been here a couple times before. it's also maybe significant we might have a 90% down volume day. a lot of times when you get that, particularly if we can hold that 200-day moving average, that often sets off at least a short-term buying opportunity the following day. there's a lot of technicians that look for 90% volume days to look for buying opportunities then the next day. >> volume is down 10% from yesterday, is what you're saying >> no. i'm saying the volume on the day, the down volume is going to be 90% of the total volume. >> i see and also before we go, victor, your own view in terms of the
size of moves we've got at the moment are your clients getting very nervous about these daily size of moves or are you seeing it as an opportunity for active management once again? >> well, a couple things let me say this. this is obviously a two-way market so i think our clients are trading with short-term hedges as the market sells off, releasing those hedges, placing them back in days we're seeing rallies. let's talk about earnings real quickly as we get ready to get into earning season next we're 17% earnings rate expected as we get ready to go into quarter one. 19% in quarter two 21% in quarter three with all of this uncertainty that's been created over the last couple of weeks, the real question is whether or not some of these ceos, some of these companies are going to be a little more conservative in their forward-looking guidance even though the s&p 500 valuation has pulled back a little bit, that has to be a real question on people's minds as we approach earning season next week. >> that's true do they come out and say, yeah
but if tariffs do this, we'll see. pays to be conservative and set the barlow to make it easier to clear. thank you all. breaking news out of russia. seema modi has that for us >> russia responding in a strong way to the sanctions imposed by the united states on many russian oligarchs and government officials. the russian foreign ministry saying it will respond in a tough way to u.s. sanctions and that it will not leave u.s. sanctions unanswered it says, you cannot speak to the u.s. in the language of sanctions and that thousands of u.s. jobs depend on russian firms hit by sanctions it goes on to say, the russian foreign ministry, that washington is hurting its own voters and its own economic interest some, some strong words from the russian foreign ministry in response to those sanctions that were announced today as we watch u.s./china trade tensions escalate, tensions
between russia and the united states also heating up as well back to you. >> thank you for that. a story to continue to watch geopolitically could escalate from here. there are the markets for you. we somewhere just under 45 minutes to go. we're just off the lows. we were down as much as 3% about ten minutes ago. now down about 2.7% on the dow. >> we'll see what happens. 4 3 minutes to go. "closing bell" is just getting started. >> announcer: still ahead, as the u.s. and china ramp up trade war rhetoric, which country is more likely to come out ahead? a pair of experts weigh in next. the "closing bell" with kelly evans and wilfred frost live evans and wilfred frost live from the new yor evans and wilfred frost live from the new yor and closer to home. edward jones grew to a trillion dollars in assets under care, by thinking about your goals as much as you do. returns in two minutes
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the administration says we're not in a trade war all-out fighting appears to be on the hoer sflon. which country has the wherewithal to win joining us is kim wallace. and alan from realitycheck there there's been a lot of rhetoric from the administration saying if this does escalate, the u.s. is in a much stronger position chooip has more to lose. do you agree with that >> i think that's absolutely true however, what i would like to hear much more from the administration is what are they ultimately after what are america's broad goals what are we trying to get the chinese to do other than very obvious answers like stop stealing intellectual property that's not really helpful. or are they trying to restructure the u.s. economic relationship in some more fundamental way, which i think would be extremely beneficial if
it's carried out carefully and if it's explained adequately to the american people, but administration spokesman and president trump haven't done either one yet. >> this is interesting because i think of you as a staunch supporter of going after these trade bad actors and protecting u.s. manufacturing. >> i am. >> yet you sound sort of frustrated and you sound like everybody else who says the administration needs to articulate its goals here. >> i'm frustrated in part because the stock market reactions that we've seen, all of the fear mongering, i would call it, about roaring ining io that's going to result on chinese products or foreign steel have not been met by an effective administration response unfortunately, secretary ross holding up cans of beer saying, well, there's almost no foreign steel content, that's not enough
we need president trump to employ the full bully pulpit effect of the presidency we haven't seen anything close to that yet. >> when we consider the great depression, clearly lots of causes for that particular economic slump, but one was trade protectionism. how big of a cause was trade protectionism and what can we learn from that period of about how bad things could get from today? >> it's hard to take that era in isolation, at least the smoot/hawley act it came in upheaval in financial and capital markets around the world so it was a trigger of a harder reaction rather than being just based on that in and of itself. i would agree with what alan said part of what's captured it markets, for that matter, politicians' and business people's attention, if there's a cogent strategy, it hasn't been enunciated we happen to believe there is
one, but it's a long-term strategy around intellectual property. >> what do you think the long-term strategy is? >> as the president enunciated the national security strategy, from an economic standpoint it's time for china to play on a more level playing field with the rest of its trading partners when it comes to the u.s. particularly around tech transfer, intellectual property protection, reciprocity, those are laudable goals how you get there matters in the near term. >> in his annual shareholder letter jamie dimon talked about wanting to see the u.s. administration work with the likes of japan and europe in terms of dealing with the issue of trade with china. is that something that you would like to see? is it still possible to add at this late stage given they've been lumped in with china for some of the tariffs? >> i would like to see it happen quite frankly, it's the trade policy equivalent of the unicorn. when it comes to trade policy,
decades of experience -- i should say decades of history teach that the united states has absolutely no allies whatever. because all of its own major trade partners have spent the better part of that period cutting their own separate deals with china and we've tried multilateral responses before don't forget, we've had a g-20 multilateral steel forum that's been meeting for two years to try to address a problem everybody says they recognize, the tremendous glut of state subsidized steel that china's created. nothing has been done for two years. and it's because so many of these u.s. trading partners are either directly or indirectly helping the chinese divert that flood of steel to the united states and this happens over and over gep. we have no trade allies whatever. >> bottom line, then, do you think that your interests are being hurt more than helped by the president finally pursuing the kind of trade toughness that
you've been wanting the u.s. to pursue >> i like the trade toughness. i like the recognition that, again, all of these fine sounding ideas, multilateralism, going to the world trade organization, i like the recognition that none of these have worked remotely but i haven't seen, again, presidential leadership that outlines to the american people, not in some national security document, but in speech after speech, rally after rally, what are we after, what's the end goal and why, whatever sacrifices might be needed, are actually very much worth it. >> kelly, on that last point, it's important for the president to also build alliances. and the europeans have been treated roughly in their view. so, them rushing to our aid in this is very unlikely in this juncture they're going through their own problems as well. >> why do we need to build that alliance why is that so important with the europeans? >> if we're basically all subject to unfair trade practices from china, which is
the case as alan was referring to, better you spend time privately building coalitions to the extent you can, recognizing countries act in their own self-interest, but building coalitions in private so that you can present a more global strategy to the chinese that leaves them very little room to run. >> yeah. we have to leave it there. that was fascinating thank you very much. just over half an hour to go before the close and we are down back dloclose to 3%. down 675 points on the dow the s&p and nasdaq down 2.5%. >> this year we've already had three closes of 700 points or more coming up, could it be safer to hide out in global equities? a top strategist lays out the case for international markets he says will outperform for the rest of the year we're all over this big selloff on a wild week for the markets. keep it right here on cnbc e longel wth"csi bl"ill be right back we have 30 minutes of trade left
welcome back to the "closing bell." under 30 minutes to the close. boring sectors are outperforming but still down utilitieses -- >> the boring -- you with the boring again. >> i know. but they can't hear us, so it doesn't matter. >> they are listening. those utilities, real estate and consumer staples, telecom. it's rate, but to our guests' earlier points, a lot are u.s.-focused so they don't -
>> it's rates but not that the rates are moving other than for a risk-on sentiment. buying of the bond market is a safe haven, pushing yields down, which got above 2.8% today that's why financials are near the bottom, as are financials, which are directly related to trade. down 2.8% on the dow. >> if you're in financials or industrials, you're down more than 3%. you think those boring utilities are beautiful right now. >> i never said they're not beautiful. you're implying i meant that >> i am. it's time for a cnbc news update with courtney reagan. >> thank you very much hope you don't think i'm dull. here's what's happening at this hour former republican minnesota governor tim pawlenty wants his old job back, officially announcing his candidacy he announced it at a smarl sports diner in egan where he lives. >> i support president trump i support almost all of what he's doing in terms of policy direction strongly i just don't like and haven't liked in his past the past behavior i think the message to the trump voters is i voted for president
trump. i support most of what he's doing, nearly all of what he's doing on a policy level. i just didn't approve of some of his comments and language and behavior. israeli troops killing at least six palestinians in the second mass protest in as many weeks along gaza's volatile border bringing to 28 the number of mrips killed in the past week. ford is recalling 380,000 vehicles in the u.s., canada and mexico for a transmission issue. it covers some 2018 ford f-150 pickups and 2018 expeditions with ten-speed automatic transmissions. that's your cnbc news update back over to you >> never a dull moment in that news update. >> it's like a four times -- >> consumer discretionary. >> i was going to say restale, but wilf is going somewhere else with that. courtney, thank you. we'll see you later. a little under half an hour to go. let's send is it to bertha coombs up at the nasdaq.
for once, it's not the worst performer. >> no. small caps are performing the best we held above 7,000 for much of the day but now the composite poised to close before that for the second week with broad losses across the board led today by biotech its cancer treatment trial failed to meet end points. the chips is where a lot of pain has been xilinx on a loss after downgrade from jpmorgan. facebook had been positive earlier in the day among the best of the f.a.n.g. names. a relative outperformer but closing again on the downside. we'll be back with more a little later. >> bertha, thank you finally, facebook again is a place people are going for relative outperformance. that's not been the case the
last couple of weeks. secretary steve mnuchin was on power lunch earlier today this is what he says about tariffs. >> our economic policy, we've been very focused since the campaign on achieving 3% or greater sustained gdp. we're well on our way to that goal the economic plan from day one has been a combination of tax reform, regulatory relief and trade. i think the president has been enormously successful on the first two areas of these, and now we're focused on trade i think if we're successful, this will be a great benefit to u.s. companies having free and fair reciprocal trade around the world. >> that was the treasury secretary on "power lunch. let's go to our "closing bell" exchange eric from russell investments, steve "sarge" guilfoyle from thestreet.com and rick santelli from the cme in chicago. welcome. rick, the market hasn't liked
the headlines on topic of trade. today we're selling off to the tune of 2.5% i heard your commentary throughout the day you're not that concerned about it yet what would it take for you to be much more concerned about all this trade rhetoric? >> send steve mnuchin out every day with the same type message he had today listen, he's a smart guy, but to me if i listen to his entire interview on cnbc today, i wouldn't have gone home long the equity markets either, to be quite frank. i think that plays a large part of it. there's no room for error. i traded for many years and i dealt with customers that are still trading to this day. and if you have an issue on a friday that develops into a trend, you're just not going to fade that when you walk out the door knowing you have weekend exposure i certainly don't ever in any intention mean to diminish the possibility that when you're dealing with issues this big, when you're recalibrating moving parts that never stop moving,
there's always the possibility that things go wrong and it's a nuanced argument because no matter what's going on behind the scenes, as steve liesman tried to ascertain, i'm not sure you can share those things with the world. the world shouldn't be sitting at the table of all negotiations but in the end, the nuanced arguments of why and what's going on, as contributed to by larry kudlow or a peter navarro, i think, was a bit different than the treasury secretary today. i don't mean to be mean to anybody in the equation. i just think his skill wasn't necessarily nuanced cheerleading for the policies and all the questions investors have on a friday with regard to tariffs. >> sarge, what does that leave for you, make you more cautious, especially going into the weekend and after now the dow is pretty much down 10% from the recent highs or does it leave you thinking, all right, so it's creating more opportunities in this market?
>> the last two things i did was to buy a little more raytheon and buy vietnam fund. >> veet numb - >> it's vnm. u.s. naval ships have been - >> supplier? >> in case all these tech companies, which i've been lightening up on, are forced to move manufacturing centers, switch supply chains, whatever they have to do. this is a frontier market. not a -- not an emerging market. it's cheaper for them to do so we have a lot of things working against us right here. it's not just trade conflict short term liquidity woes, libor, $350 trillion in dividends rely on this number. you've got volatile climate in d.c. never ends revolving cabinet. daily wars with amazon and associated partners. the fed. >> just gauge for me how bearish you are. >> i'm becoming increasingly
bearish. the fed is the biggest woe, the biggest potential for calamity met withdrawing liquidity from the u.s. economy the balance sheet management program is a bigger deal than interest rates and nobody -- some people are talking about it but less people are talking about it this might matter more than anyone thinks going forward. we had weak numbers in germany, weak numbers in japan. the whole globalized synchronized growth scheme may be breaking down just a little bit. >> eric, do you agree with that, on the international picture, germany, japan, looking at your notes, you're quite bullish on those countries. >> i do agree with sarge that the rate of improvement is decreasing we're decelerating in terms of the rate of economic improvement in the recent data but we're still going at a good clip globally we're not concerned about the fundamental economic environment outside the united states. it's important to note the entire weakness -- all have been led and started in the united
states the first one was a concern over the multiple as inflation expectations rose. people were concerned the multiple would go down the second is trade tariffs and potential trade wars and that's getting people concerned about earnings with a consensus forecast on the s&p, we just think u.s. equities are not as attractive as other parts of the world. it's interesting to note in these volatility events, emerging markets has outperformed we think that's valuation. >> sarge, just going back to your bearishness for a second. one of the interesting things in selloff, even when we started with 1,000-point days in february, people were buying the dips, not a lot of real fear do you get the sense things are starting to change in a sense, is it becomes more of a positive for the equity market. >> certainly people are buying the pops -- i just bought something on the dip, i just told you that, but people are generally selling the pops
i've been telling people to go to a higher cash level for quite some time now. >> "the wall street journal" had a column on that today. >> it certainly has worked i would like to see folks who follow me get into physical gold a little bit can it hurt you? i guess. keep it to 5%, 7.5% of your portfolio but i think it's the best bet out there you know money's going into quens. >> rick, what is your take on risk aversion outside of the equity markets we've been steady around the 2.8% bond level, not like people are flooding out of equities into safe haven bonds. >> no, exactly as a matter of fact, it's a tale of two markets when it comes to the credit markets if you look on the week, we are looking at maturities, the fives are up two, the tens are up three. 30s are up four basis points you look on the the day, they're down half a dozen basis points to me, if you're looking at the treasury complex, especially the long end of the market, it's want acting in a threatening fashion in either direction.
it doesn't seem fearful of pricing pressures, deficit or debt and oerpd it doesn't seem to be too freaked out about the hiccup in growth because we're still well above what was last year's high yield at 2.63. i think it was one issue today that made me a little nervous. that is that we tried to get back into that well worn range of 2.80s we spent one day there because we feared today's employment report might be better we slipped right out of that test to me, to be below that 2.80 con gregs level is a reason to think there may be a drift slightly down in yields for the weeks ahead. >> last comment, eric, before we leave all this what about the u.s. dollar any time you're talking about investing overseas, you have to think about making sure that doesn't get stronger, right? >> yeah. and we don't expect the dollar to get stronger. obviously, the trade war issue aside, that's not our -- our
central forecast isn't a strad war. we think the dollar will trade sideways after a year. >> let's put the trade war issue aside, it's like, no, it's front and center >> you know earnings are on the ways, guys we do have an ally out there >> that's true. >> you hope. >> we know pe ratios have come in and we know the "e" of pe - >> victor said last segment what if it's trade because of the uncertainty -- >> that will help. >> the "e" will go up but will it relative to expectation >> this volatility should have helped that. we'll know next week. >> the ones it will benefit most, we'll hear from first. >> thank you, gentlemen. moving along with 28 minutes -- 18 minutes to go, i'm sorry. >> let's have a look at the big selloff markets. we're down 570 points, down about 600 points on the dow. now, events in washington have
been key eamon javers is live in d.c. with more. >> that's right. sarah huckabee sanders weighed in on the stock market selloff we've been seeing this afternoon. she was asked a question about whether the president bears any responsibility for the selloff we've seen over the course of the year here's the question and how she answered it. >> the dow is down nearly 4,000 points since january 26th. does the president, the administration believe any of that decline is attributable to any of the president's actions concerning the tariffs the president has announced on steel and aluminum, perhaps the tariffs the president intends to impose on china? anything related to what the administration has done since that time period >> we're focused on the long-term economic principles. let's be clear the tariffs that we're talking about with china have not been implemented and are months away. the president has cleared the
way for a strong economic environment through the tax cuts, through deregulation we're going to continue pushing forward on long-term economic principles but at the same time, we're not going to allow a country like china to continue to have thesis unfair and illegal trade practices. >> reporter: what sanders says squares with what i've been told president trump values the trade aagain da more than short-term moves in the stock market. you heard sanders duck the question about whether or not the president has any responsibility for the multithousand point decline we've seen in the dow over the course of the year this year, saying the economy ultimately is strong and they're focused on long-term growth that's what you hear officials say at the white house, including larry kudlow who held a brown bag session with reporters in the roosevelt room earlier today. kudlow said in terms of this trade situation, any foreign policy action can go awry, he said, but we're want in a trade
war. he also emphasized he doesn't like to use tariffs but he said sometimes you have to use tariffs to bring countries to their senses and he said the problem here ultimately is china, not trump larry kudlow suggesting, you want ultimately, that the president is not bluffing here but this could end up in a situation where these tariffs don't go into effect in any case because they're hoping for a better outcome and dialogue with the chinese over the coming months not clear when that will start, when that will finish or what exactly the administration hopes to get out of the chinese other than broadly adjusting the trade imbalance between the two nations and the intellectual property protection the president has been talking about. >> eamon, eye seen your tweets in that meeting with larry kudlow one particular comment jumped out to me where you said that mr. kudlow said, quote, scaramucci lasted 11 days, i have to last longer than that. i wonder how serious he is
we're not talking about his clash with president trump being so serious -- >> reporter: no, he was joking i mean, larry is the kind of guy, he's very serious about the economy, very serious about free market capitalism, as you know, but he's also a guy who likes to joke around a little bit he did make that comment about outlasting scaramucci in jest. but any time you talk about the tenure of white house officials at the trump white house, there's an element of truth to it a lot of people don't last very long inside this white house one question a lot of observers have been asking is how long will larry kudlow last here given he sees trade -- he has historically seen trade different than president trump for now they're on the same page on day five he says it's been great so far. >> day five. it's felt like weeks in the market with all this up can and down i wonder if those comments, correct me if i'm wrong here, larry also said, and this was around 2:30 or so this hit the
wires and we saw the selloff intensify after this he said tariffs are not a bluff. but a solution seems to be possible that seems to be directly different than what he said earlier this week when the tariffs were a negotiating tactic. >> reporter: i asked him about that i said, is your negotiations -- is your message to the stock market undermining your negotiations with the chinese because you say on the one hand to the stock market, this may not happen, there's no tariffs yet, a long process, con sill tear noise but we know the chinese are capable of watching television and seeing what you're saying. so, if you indicate that, doesn't that undermine the negotiating power of the tariff stance he said, no. look, the president's not bluffing he said he feels this could end up with tariffs. he said, i would never take tariffs off the table. the president hasn't taken tariffs off the table. but we're in a process here where we could get to a place where there are no tariffs it seems like the administration
wants to have it both ways they want to threaten the use of tariffs but ultimately they would like to get to a place where no tariffs are put in place. >> thank you for that. eamon javers in d.c. jerome powell reacting to president trump's tariff threat against china and steve liesman with details >> thank you if there's confusion in -- on wall street about the potential impacts of the tariffs on the economy, there's also some confusion at the federal reserve where fed chairman jerome powell said the fed is taking a wait and see attitude on the tariffs. >> the discussion about tariffs is at a relatively early stage people really don't see yet any implications in the near term for the outlook because we don't know the extent to which the tariffs will actually come into effect if so, you know, how big will that affect be, the timing it's too early to say. >> he went on to say tariffs can push up prices and they heard
from businesses that it represents some form of increased risk i'll point out, when it came to tax kushgts the federal reserve waited until the tax cuts were actually passed before either changing their policy or upgrading their forecast i think that's the way the fed will take it they're not going to get out front on an issue like this. they'll wait to see how the president works it out >> steve, when we consider the data we got this morning as well, that slightly disappointing jobs print, do you think that chair powell will be reconsidering the number of hikes this year he had expected to do or is it just a rounding error compared to the strong numbers we got in previous months >> i think the latter, wilf. i think the idea this 103,000, i think what people are doing is just seeing it as payback from the really strong february month we had, maybe a bit of weather in there i don't think the federal reserve is going to change its tack based on a single month's report the idea out there is that the job market and the economy both seem strong to fed officials and
they seem pretty set on these two additional hikes this year, at least and i think it would take a major change in the outlook. who knows, trade could be that major change i want you to know, i've been looking at these other buckets that the chinese could levy tariffs on i did find a $39 billion bucket, which isn't much thought of as a tradeable good because it's a tradeable service. it's chinese tourists coming here they spend a lot of money and a lot of money in college -- >> i was going to say college. >> you're absolutely right can't put one over on you. that's a big business in the united states. if you don't think the chinese will do it, they did it to the south koreans about a year ago they started to pressure chinese tourists going to -- going to south korea. the other thing the chinese have done is pressured south korean countries -- i'm sorry, companies inside of china. so, those are areas, and i think that's part of the confusion, where is it going to come from
if you look at initial round of tariffs, you saw the u.s. -- i'm sorry, the u.s. went after a lot of small buckets and the china went after the big ones like boeing and soybeans. and -- >> steve, i still think, look, if the chinese leadership's goal is not to anger the chinese population, i'm sure -- the chinese people want to keep visiting the u.s. and going to u.s. colleges. feels like they'll be careful to make sure it hurts us more than -- or causes a backlash. >> i push back a little on that notion because in the united states there's a means for the public to express its displeasure with its leadership that's at the ballot box, including neb nen. you had nebraska senator sasse say it's nuts if the president really means it. another gop official said, there goes iowa. they have the ability to impose
enough pain and suffering -- >> the entire economic program is to make sure people don't protest too much when they shut down factories it's a sensitive one i take your point. >> i think that's right. i think the debate we're having is part of the game theory calculation on both sides of this debate right now. >> including in the market steve, thank you we are off the lows. the dow is down 522 but down 750 at the lows. eight minutes to go. >> let's continue the market discussion joining us here is david darst, independent investment consultant with his end of the week acronym what are we looking at this week b.u.m.p.s., the market has been going through bumps. i want to first wish a happy 29th birthday to cnbc on april 28th of this month in 1989 cnbc was born.
so, happy birthday, cnbc >> i'm making note of that to send our ceo a letter. >> art cashin walked by and said there was as much as a billion to sell on the bell. he said down to 300 million. not much of a factor carry on. >> b. is bargaining. i have great confidence in mnuchin, in larry kudlow, in even -- in navarro, all of them. the second thing is use caution, you have three clouds that make this tariff discussion seem like nothing. they are korea, north korea, they are iran and they are the special counsel, robert mueller, who has been operating since may of 2017. those three things are going to come together later on use caution. have some cash "m," more volatility this is getting ba, to normal. it's 21 the vix. 20 is the long-term average. the abnormal thing was last year, not this year.
"p," profits, up 17% for the first quarter. this year it will be up 18% or more gang buster. so, keep some cash, ride the tiger. it's not time to sell. it's time to nibble to buy valuations have come down so strong economic data you could say scrutiny of tech companies as the "s," but strong economic data. very good this week. industrial production, lead economic indicators. >> very quickly, david, at the top you have confidence in trump and his team in terms of this bargaining what about president xi, there's a few more powerful leaders around the world who have proved their own ability domestically >> these people are aware of history. these people are very, very smart on both sides. i have great confidence we will not end up making the -- this is worrying about nothing
in latin -- [ speaking foreign language perhaps some day we'll look back and laugh. >> i'll do it in french or spanish. >> ride the tiger, don't let the tiger ride you have some cash and put some money to work. >> david, pleasure to see you as always thank you very much. david darst. >> it's a pleasure being with these colleagues let's get to seema modi. >> with trade dominating the discussion, it was those stocks that had the highest exposure to china that really were a part of today's selloff. take a look at boeing and caterpillar contributing the most to today's decline. down by as much or more than 3% in today's trade the stocks down the most on the dow were names like intel, cisco, 3m and general electric stocks that do have notable exposure to china. as these trade tensions rise, you're seeing these globally
diverse names are really the ones in focus. pay a look at the worst performing stocks on the s&p 500 for the week a chipmaker, makes over 25% of its revenue in china that stock down 8% on the week also lower, advanced microdevices, another chipmaker. interestingly enough, advanced auto parts, it's a car supplier, perhaps a bit more exposure to nafta but with trade being topic of discussion, that stock lower than 5% for the week sticking with this global thing, it's important to note that even the emerging market index, which would benefit from a weaker dollar, lower by 2% for the week those chinese tech names under pressure a big theme we've been seeing over the past couple of weeks. >> seema, thank you very much for that we've got about 3:30 to go until the close. down 564 points on the dow about 2.3% or so we were down as much as 3% at the low of the session we have just come off the lows
the other two indices down 2.1% or so each let's take a look at the intraday chart it tells a great story we opened lower but got steadily worse throughout the day that selling picked up around lunchtime when steve mnuchin was on our air he did say that term, we could end up having a trade war. he could have worded that better that spooked the market. the low of the day was about 45 minutes ago and we're off that low as we speak. sectors today for you, the ones doing the best are the boring sectors we mentioned, utilities up 0.7 as outperformer industrials, a clear loeser from a potential trade war. tech has suffered going into the close. financials down as well because of the come impression we've seen in yields that picture, all 11 sectors lower paints a worrying picture. let's look at the dow for the
week only down 0.4% it's not been as bad as it could have been, about 0.5%, 0.6% for the full week. s&p is down 1.5% for the week. nasdaq down 2% for the week if we were to close where we are now. it's not as bad as today's move suggests on that note, gold for the week is only up 0.6%. the gains it's seen are gains for the week if this was a real selloff, we might see more as i bring in bob pisani, the ten-year bond yields, we've seen risk-off sentiment, dragging the yield below 2.8% as a week, broadly speaking, we're flat >> the important thing is this on wednesday larry kudlow comes on and says the president is a free trade guy implies it's all negotiation mr. mnuchin, treasury secretary comes on and says, the important thing is the president has to make a point with china and basically says a trade war is possible, though mr. mnuchin said this is not the desired
outcome. well, the problem is the markets are very confused. they want to believe that this is all negotiation and won't be as bad as they say but the president is doubling down and he seems to imply he's not as concerned about the markets. that's an issue for them now there could be real collateral damage to gdp and the overall economy and the trading community is having a hard time levitating itself to believe there won't be real damage that's making the market a little uninvestable. hard to understand and confusing. >> bob, talk to me quickly we have about a minute left and down 2% about some of those more protected names and how they've done for the week as a whole. >> real estate investment trusts, consumer staples have outperformed generally they're just not down as much. very few names that are up for the week we have about 40 names with 52-week lows, 9% of the index. again, we're a long way from any significant lows on the s&p or the dow jones.
we would have to drop another 2300, 2400 points on the dow jones. even more than that. 3,000. >> there goes the bell thanks very much ringing the bell at the nasdaq is op bancor and sam adams. there goes the bell at the close, down 759 points kelly evans with the second hour. which have been hit lately hold up relatively better, but barely speaking the nasdaq back below 7,000 to
6915 the dow down 10% from the january highs. the s&p 500 down 58 points, closed at 2604, 2.2% drop. the russell 2000, the relative outperformer of this entire correction, it's only down 6% from the recent highs. was down a little less than 2% today. 29-point drop. 1513 is the level there. your check on the volatility gauge, the vix, about 21.5 right now. joining us, cnbc's dominic chu, karen firestone is here. cnbc contributor evan newmark and art cashin, director of floor operations at ubs. welcome to all of you. all dow stocks were down, caterpillar with the biggest laggard with another 3.5% drop ulta beauty was the winner, incyte dragged down with bad news on the biotech. dom, let's start with you. we were down about 750 at the
lows but big picture this morning, we were only down a couple hundred and it felt like the storm clouds were clearing and now it seems like we're stuck in the rain. >> did it feel like monday when we were -- >> i don't even remember monday. >> right it was such a big blur we had the same price action on monday the idea we would talk about trade issues the markets would sell off extremely -- we were down 758 points at one point to rally back and close by 458, 500-some points all of a sudden you have a three-day winning streak and we're back to where we were basically to start the week. just a hair from where we were then the thing trade rz were most talking about today is the idea there wasn't a huge amount of volume behind this kind of selling pressure it may give the bulls at least a little bit of comfort to know that there wasn't some kind of a huge bit of selling pressure one trader tells me, he says, it's not at all a selling frenzy it's just a buyer's strike that's something you'll hear a lot of with this environment. >> arthur, that could be good or
bad. one of the things on wall street is markets don't bottom on a friday. >> absolutely. >> are you seeing the nervousness, bearishness that tells you we're getting through the bulk of this move or not >> we were close to having a potential blood bath on the close. at one point when they were down 700 points on the dow, the indication was for well over $1 billion for sell on the bell luckily that pared off and it was under $300 million that wasn't a big factor if you would have had a billion for sale, they would have closed in an ugly fashion, probably on the lows of the day. you're getting a heightened degree of nervousness. not quite full panic yet >> evan, are you looking at walking into the market more or - >> i was excited coming on because i bought stocks on monday at the lows for the first time since 2016. >> are you regretting that now >> not at all. i'm still up whatever it is on that money
but largely because i'm not -- i don't believe we've seen the final move here. i think there's more correction to come. >> are you tying that to trade and tariffs or - >> i think right now the cloud over the market isn't trade. it's want trading on data. it's trading on headlines, it's trading on larry kudlow coming on and talking or mnuchin or trump tweeting that's not what makes for a healthy market the market has to trade on data and profits and certainty. here's the worst part. i don't think there will be any certainty for at least a few weeks. >> arthur, what do you think the markets have to hear once we come out of this weekend and into next week what do you think they're looking for? >> i agree with evan i think we have more work to do here i think they're looking for some sense of how the prost process will work. we may get help on tuesday
they're having a financial conference in china. and mr. xi is slated to give a big speech on tuesday. we'll see if he wades into the trade war situation and where we go from there. but it's going to be jumpy for several days because both sides want to declare victory. xi wants to say he's protecting the chinese people from the trading aggression of the united states and mr. trump wants to say very much the same thing on the other side. >> we'll see, arthur, thank you very much. we'll let you go art cashin, appreciate it. breaking news, comments from san francisco fed president. steve liesman, what did he have to say >> we'll pay more attention to john williams. not that we ignored him more san francisco fed president john williams saying the right direction for monetary policy is three to four hikes this year. he says gradual increases in the funds rate are needed over the next two years and would be the right thing to do.
and he sees the fund rates rising to 3.5% by 2020 that's pretty much in line with the consensus of the fmoc. on growth he sees 2.5% in 2018 and in 2019. says the u.s. economy is as strong as it's been in decades and inflation is moving closer to target. as kelly said, he is the person that will take over the new york federal reserve bank come june he'll have a vote at every meeting as opposed to, i guess it was, every other meeting for the san francisco fed president, kelly. >> new york retains that privileged position. steve, thank you very much kerry, i want to bring you in for a second there was something different about the selloff today versus the last couple of weeks we're not talking about a tech wreck. what are your thoughts >> correct it was nice to see that because it suggested to me the scrutiny of technology and how this is the culprit of the market that's going to take it down has sort of abated. this seemed to be a response to
the trade issue. whether there's going to be a decline in earnings that relates to tariffs on dow-related companies. that's a much broader basket and i actually think it will have more effectively influenced the administration the idea that companies like caterpillar and boeing had a really rough day today is going to make a lot of people talk this weekend about what they might do to reduce that fear, that earnings are going to be hurt badly this year because of what might happen with trade so, it was in a way a victory. we didn't end on the lows. it wasn't just technology. it was probably index funds. it wasn't a lot of active traders making these moves today. >> fair enough we don't want to overlook that today was jobs friday. 8:30 a.m. feels like ancient history. it came in a little disappointing, just 103,000 jobs
added last month expectation was more like 200,000. despite march's jobs number was the lowest in six months the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.1% we're joined by julia joining us at post nine to talk about this one. good to see you. this report didn't move the markets too much when it crossed. was it one of those things as the dust settled more people got concerned? >> i don't think we can blame today's market action on the jobs report. we had a slightly weaker than expected number in march but we had a blockbuster number in february you smooth through the noise the job market is still strong people are coming back into the labor force. so, i don't really think there's bad news coming from the job market. >> the three-month average of job creation is just over 200,000. >> exactly >> i think the fed itself, researchers always say, you need to add 60,000 at this point in the cycle to -- for the unemployment rate to keep dropping the unrounded number was 4.0
something? >> 4.07. it's been steady at 4.1% reflecting the fact that the job market is strong enough to bring people back into the shadow labor force and we never knew if they would come back or not. they're coming back. that's keeping wage growth relatively subdued this is a perfect scenario for the fed. >> it's goldilocks. >> that's not causing any of the issues right now it is literally -- >> it's -- >> it's president trump could have - >> part of this selloff, though, you remember the last jobs report -- or two jobs reports ago -- >> early february, yes. >> it was the wage number. >> the wage number was very hot. and we worried about inflation for like ten minutes >> for ten minutes we worried about inflation. now those worries are -- >> my point is, if you said to donald trump, six months ago, guess what, going into the midterms the economy is going to
be fine, job growth is going to be fine, wage gains are going to be fine, so why don't you go out and pick a trade fight with china and mess everything up, he would have said, why would i do that but you're in a weird position >> not donald trump. >> but you're in a weird situation right now, which is everything from an economic perspective has been going very well >> it's against the incumbents, you know, the midterm elections are usually very bad for the president. now, the interesting thing -- we were expecting the republican party would lose a heck of a lot of seats but after the tax cuts passed, those numbers started to change it was actually moving more in the republicans' favor looked like they might even have a shot of holding on to your point, evan, now it's starting to go the other way >> and the weird part about the trade policy is, you can't -- nobody can say, oh, the tariffs will have this effect or that effect or whatever
>> hard to quantify. >> they have layers but they do infect market psychology, ceo psychology and, you know, a couple of guests on last hour said it, if you're going to make a case that china has done this wrong or that wrong, then go out and make the case and get some buy in the real issue is i don't think the administration has made a case. >> on that note, treasury secretary steve mnuchin was on cnbc earlier today he was perhaps one of the officials that keyed off the late day selloff here's what he had to say about the latest round of potential tariffs against china. mnuchin said he was cautiously optimistic we'll work things out but left on open the possibility it could go south. >> i didn't say it's the beginning of one i said we're not in a trade war. so, again, right now we have initiated a plan the tariffs will take some time to go into effect. there will be public comments. while we're in the period before the tariffs go on, we'll
continue to have discussions, but there is the potential of a trade worry. >> dom, that's all they needed to hear. >> we talk about the psychology. consumer psychology, investor psychology what about political psychology? right now you've got lawmakers in nebraska, lawmakers in iowa, lawmakers in certain parts of illinois who are saying, this is terrible in is a steshl idea. by the way, these are republican lawmakers in the heartland with agriculturally centered constituents. >> because that's what the chinese went after. >> right >> they didn't say officially they targeted them, but they targeted them. that's what they went after. as we talk about the idea this could escalate, it's hard to quantify the economic impacts but there are already people who are going to say, this is going to hurt and this is going to hurt my prospects of being able to hold some of these areas in trump country. >> the interesting thing is, there's often the saying around here that gridlock is good if we have a split washington, you know, republican president,
democratic congress come fall, you know, the old saw is, hey, gridlock is good does any of that matter now or is there a lot more focus on the fact that we haven't been through an episode like this, we're really talking about the repricing of trade in a long time >> well, we've had our series of heavy impacts in the market over the last few months. you think about what happened just a few weeks ago with interest rate fears, it took the market down a lot. then the market came back. now we have this new episode i feel like we're in a miniseries every week we see another hour and it moves all over the place by the end of the day, you're wrung out and exhausted. so, next week could be an entirely different episode we start to see earnings reports. if those earnings come in very nicely, well, you know, this might be all history and we can replay it, but i think it's likely we'll have good earnings. there could be better news out of washington.
and that the market will calm down >> karen, what are your -- what do you think people should be investing in here? where are the opportunities created? from that point of view, dow well off the highs a lot of the components are down. >> i think it depends on your time frame if you believe in the long-term, which we do, and you can say, we'll wait it out and over time the market has done well and we also have a decent economy with low unemployment, as we know i think you can look at what's attractive the market is selling for less than 17 times earnings it's -- excuse me. it's 16.4 times next 12 months earnings, which is much more attractive than throughout 2017. so, you can look at the dow stocks, you can look at technology and say, what's trading for a market multiple or below it and you have some strong growers right there now alphabet is one of them.
apple is one of them can you look at a few of the dow stocks you talked about before that have gotten hit recently but they're not expensive on a multiple basis. >> evan, you mentioned you were buying. >> that was purely a - >> index funds yeah etf. s&p 500 etf. i did it today again i don't believe you can time the market in general. and i just -- i'm basically betting that over the next few weeks there will be these wooshes in the market. i put in some buy orders today. >> you come on telling us you were buying after the first couple thousand point wooshes. these are different? >> no. when you felt the market break down on monday, i just put in -- i don't think i'm going to outtrade the algorithms. in is money i'm going to keep. rebalancing, i'm relatively underweighted on the u.s. market overall. once the market picked up and
went over 2575, i think is where it was, i didn't buy any more. basically i think over the next few weeks you'll see,s because i don't expect this to resolve quickly. you might see more days. if you get the dow going down 500, 600 points, i'll pick up. >> what would it take for all of this, even though the market is taking it to the extreme because its the job. on the macro level, this still does not add up to a whole heck of a lot. >> in terms of market correction >> no, in terms of the tariffs. >> no, it's hard to quantify a lot we don't know and a lot is opening shots to negotiation it is going to drag on before we see how the dust settles, especially with china and with nafta. those are the two very most important fronts of strad negotiatitrade negotiation. the market won't find a lot of momentum because this will be hanging over it. we might get great earnings but what will happen to future earnings, we don't know.
>> we said this a couple weeks ago with santoli, who i'm sorry isn't here to abuse a little bit -- i'm happy you're here, dom. but i said this is not the kind of thing that unless something dramatic happens ends with donald trump tweeting something. like, oh, trade war's over or we got everything we wanted so it's -- that's not the way trade works. this will drag out for a long time. >> the market was probably going to be choppy and churning and down and, you know, so - >> but the market sort of forgot this was coming. this was on the trump agenda from the beginning we got all giddy with tax cuts, forgetting there would be offsets. >> larry said, it's negotiation. today it's a trade war. >> so, there will be actions that will have some pain >> my question is, is the economy in the u.s. okay with tariffs aside? >> oh, absolutely. i think the fundamentals for the economy are fantastic right now. we're in a very good position.
and probably should weather the storm. it might take some steam off the otherwise incredible fiscal stimulus we just put in the pipeline it might eat away some of that. >> right ironically thank you. karen firestone, julie coronado to talk to it us banks were among the worst performers let's go to chris whalen on the phone from sar socieet florida this is different from february where the banks rn hit because inflation concerns and interest rates were rising, what do you think this phase of the selloff is all about >> again, i think the financials ran so well last year that if you were a momentum based fund and you want to short the market this afternoon, you're going to the top ten financials because they're so deep. you have a variety of ways to get short exposure that's what happened i've been taking money off the table for the last month or two.
if you're staring at a 40% gain in some financials and fintac and everything else, how do you not take it off the table? 2017 and 2016 were extraordinary periods. and i think largely because of the fed. so we have to rebalance valuation with a quote/unquote market that won't have the fed buying securities all the time and i think that's the underlying problem really, if i were to cut to the chase, i would say the biggest issue is we have a president who's become a systematic risk to the market. >> well, but two months ago he was the best thing that ever happened to it let me ask you for a second about earnings because people keep saying, let's focus there the banks are going to start us off. next friday i think jpm, wells, a few others report. volatility would help these guys more than it would help a lot of the on or about earnings we'll hear from. what expectations, are you tweaking estimates going into that at all? >> look, i'm a banker. i'm not an analyst so i don't
make buy/sell recommendations or put out projections. earnings will be good because of the tax legislation. the real issue is what's going on higher up in the income statement, which is margins and volumes. i think they'll slowly weaken. the street is going to be very pleased from the earnings from all of the top financial names just because of the structural change in their payouts. they'll pay out more they'll also continue with buybacks you put those together and i think that will be a very positive situation nengs weext . again, we have a situation where all of these financials have run so well but there's no growth in them there's no growth in the banking industry right now it's doing fine. they're overcapitalized, they're very sound we don't have any concerns but in terms of making money, their choices are limited compared to ten years ago. equity returns are 30% below where they were a decade ago
that's the reality of banks. >> chris is talking about something we've talked about quite a few times which is structurally the business has changed for a lot of the banks with leverage way down you know, goldman sachs is earning in the go go days of 2006, 2007, 20-plus percent roes they're struggling to get into double digits. >> exactly exactly. >> to the point about market timing and to what chris is saying - >> i thought jamie dimon said in his letter they were thinking of getting up to 17% now, which is - >> like i said, i don't -- i can't talk to what targeting, but generally speaking, share -- people are talking about double digit profit growth, double digit profit growth. every time we have an equity market strategist and is bullish and wants the s&p to go to 3 is 00 they say look at profit growth the issue is to what extent the market is pricing these things in already that's something you will only know when you know
i think people are expecting earnings growth from the banks and from everybody to be really good >> they are. >> it's not like that will be an upside surprise to people. >> it's not like they haven't delivered when volumes are flat. they have. >> that's true what were you going to say >> we're just on the cusp of going to another earnings season and the banks for us unofficially kick that off according to thomson reuters ibis, if you look at the financials in the s&p 500, they're anticipating earnings growth of 24.5%. >>. >> on revenue growth of 3% to 4%. >> wow >> exactly. >> obviously these analysts like chris and everybody else will look well beyond headlines they'll look at trading volumes, nims -- or, i'm sorry, bank profit margins beyond that there's a question
whether or not this, quote/unquote consensus trade of being in banks will bear out earnings season is key >> chris, last word. >> look, i think to get jpmorgan to 17%, he'll have to buy back a lot of equity. the industry is barely at 1% asset return, single digit roes, the question is, how do we get there? the street is optimistic and then adjust their projections as the year goes on i would be cautious about that i love jamie, but 17%, no, it's not going to happen this year. >> we'll see chris whalen, thanks very much. >> thanks. >> now, just a short time ago on "power lunch" we heard from treasury secretary steve mnuchin. he was giving investors some advice on what they should be doing right now. >> for people investing in the market should be he can focused on where it is in the long term.
i continue to think prospects for the u.s. economy are very strong the prospects for u.s. companies are very strong. and i think in terms of areas to invest around the world, the united states is still the best place to invest. >> will 2018 be the year of value investing? joining us right now, a couple of value investors, trip miller and ave from center stone investors. welcome to you both. tripp,ist a weird question to ask in general but it feels especially weird right now. this is one of those markets where it's not risk on/risk off with correlation 100% like it was in the old fed days. what is it now are you finding it hard to pick names and kind of ignore the macro noise right now? >> it's getting a little easier with the markets being volatile and pulling back we're focused on buying great businesses for the long term when we see businesses we
currently own pulling back 10%, we in a weird way get excited because we think we're getting a bargain now and getting to invest for the long term the macro picture certainly is more cloudy than it has been in recent years with all the trade war talk going on. while weal think it's a short-term news story, at least we hope it is and plays out in our favor, it's something over the long haul would give us pause in terms of allocations we're making right now but we believe it will clear up in a relatively short period of time. >> real quickly, a couple of your favorite names right now. >> sure. our largest holdings, winner, we've owned it before. it's been very volatile recently with a lot of news headlines we believe that headline risk is clearing up and there's a lot of value intact from the brand, the real estate they own and some optionality they have for growth. >> do you think -- >> yes >> i was going to say, there was
a report out from the new york post today that mgm might be a buyer there. is part of your thesis predicated on wynn being bought by another company or is there value there either way for you >> for us there's value either way. for us to see mgm maybe having interest, we believe asian companies like galaxy that bought 5% of the shares in wynn are all potential acquirers in 2018 >> abe, where do you see value >> i would echo what trip is saying we're long-term investors. the market is where it was in december we just sort of corrected a little bit there's a lot of interest rate sensitive companies that have gotten beat down we're looking at reits, for instance they've come down well off their
lows keep in mind also, there's a tariff -- the economic as i travel around, there are a lot of peak sort of cyclicality indicators just to be cautious, carry - >> a lot of hiring signs >> there are i'll give you -- >> the other day -- yeah, i want to hear your anecdote. i read about a mcdonald's in elkhart, indiana - >> it was a kfc. >> offering people $150 signing bonus. >> i was in pennsylvania, watching the local news. and there was a -- they were entering the local fire chief and he was on the verge of tear because theirs firemen are working so hard at their regular jobs it's a volunteer job to be a fireman. he was losing fire volunteers. and -- >> wow. >> maybe i don't have that kind of exposure anymore but i've never heard of a labor shortage in firemen. >> that's a phenomenon that needs -- i would like to read a whole article about that.
by the way, i hope it doesn't, you know, come back to haunt us. >> we are finding -- we're bottom-up investors. we're going one security at a time we purchased o'reilly, the auto parts retailer, for instance, we own target, some of these -- one of the -- i guess the -- what's the -- what's similar about both of them, they've been in the news with amazon and whether amazon will get into the business and we find both are independently very strong businesses there's a lot more headline noise than there is impact on the bottom line because of online retailers and both well run. target owns all their real estate, buy back a ton of stock and pay a lot of dividends and in general has a lot of free cash flow to distribute to shareholders. >> last question to you because it sounds like in a way -- when they create these etfs, death by amazon etf, that's usually when
you get interested in being on the other side now that the tariff and trade fears are new climax, anything you're buying specifically in terms of where the market thinks there might be pain but you see more upside? >> actually, we're looking for tariff -- i think it's noise i think the most relevant -- or most important impact to the market has been short-term rates have been creeping up. libor is at 2.3% keep in mind, the s&p 500 dividend is 2.3% historically maybe that's not been a great indicator, but in the current environment where you have people who are -- have been desperate for yield for years and years. there's a generation of people looking at their bank account saying, i didn't know banks paid me interest. interest rates have been at zero for ten years. >> what a perk >> yeah. that's real competition. probably more important thing to look at going forward. >> guys, take great discussion thank you very much. longer term view of all this
volatility it was another big selloff creating some opportunity today. dow down 572 on the close. we're down about 10% from the recent highs we do have full team coverage of the selling today. bertha coombs at the nasdaq. rick santelli at the cme and bob pisani at the nyse. >> the important thing is we dodged a real bullet it was hairy at 3:00 we had a billion on market close orders down 60, 70 points in the s&p 500 and we were headed lower take a look at the s&p, down 57 but it was a lot worse around 3:00 when we were down close to 70 that's close to 700 in the dow jones. we had turn-around, some sectors that were not normally market leaders. oil was the big story. we saw companies like octicidenl petroleum turn around. big oil names that were able to break the momentum and turn around dodging a bullet, your usual big industrial names that are the
centerpieces for discussions about global trade were all weak today in the dow caterpillar, boeing, ge and 3m all to the downside. i think -- to give you an idea of the broad decline home depot, which has no significant presence in china, it was down significantly. jpmorgan gets 1% of its revenues from china and it was down significantly. goldman gets 3% or 4% and it was down significantly broad swaths of the market were moving to the downside i think the real concern here is the bucket is desperate to move past this china trade. they want to concentrate on improving economy with powell. they want to concentrate on earnings, which are going to be spectacular next week. they keep getting dragged back into this thing. the traders want to give the president the benefit of the doubt that this is all negotiated the larry kudlow attitude. everybody relax, this is a negotiating tactic but they are starting to have doubts about that. if this keeps going through like this, the president says he's
doubling down and not concerned about the markets, there could be real genuine collateral damage i heard words like, i don't understand the market, or this is becoming uninvestable when you get that confusion, it's an issue. >> maybe there's sign -- bearishness is climbing into the market. it wasn't the nasdaq front and center like it has been. the dow was the worst performer today. bertha coombs with a look at the big selloff. >> the nasdaq has performed relative relatively better but certainly down we closed off the lows and are fractionally positive by about 0.1% for the year still. and still above those february lows so, the nasdaq seems to be holding on a technical basis finding a little support but some of the biggest losers this week were among the biggest decliners. incyte off better than 20% on a
failed trial for a cancer treatment. it was the chips that have really been weighing on performance at the nasdaq. that's a sector that's getting hit. makers like nvidia, micron, all concerns about their exposure to chinese revenue. amazon, which is off about 6% just since the president has started his tweeting campaign against the company, but down for the fourth straight week that was the biggest point impact to the downside here at the nasdaq this weeks but we did have some winners tesla finally breaking a five-week losing streak on those good numbers, production numbers, weekly production numbers for model 3. also you're seeing a couple of other names. ulta beauty. that selfie trade seems to be back in vogue, kelly >> say it ain't so bertha, thank you very much. bertha coombs, treasury yields under some pressure.
rick santelli at the cme bonds moves, 6.773. >> yes, there was pressure today. one-week chart of 2s and pay particular attention to the right side after the data came out on what wasn't a spectacular jobs report, at wages weren't down, we're down three basis points. everything turned. the catalyst to rates moving down was pretty much the data. if you look at one week of 10s, you can see the same thing but it didn't respond in kind to some of the issues when steve mnuchin, the treasury secretary in my opinion helped incite a bit more selling in equities treasuries weren't that responsive down six on the day on 10s on the week you're unchanged on 2s and up three on 10s and now three basis points below that very dense 22-session in the 2.80s. that's important as you move away from that, most likely there is going to be a drift to lower rates. we do have supply next week. tuesday, wednesday and thursday, 3s, 10s and 30s.
that will be key we are also have inflation data points, cpi and ppi. one week dollar index on the day was about a third of the crept on the week it was down only about a tenth of a cent. but the disappointment, as you see on that chart, it failed at its midpoint of the year around 90.60. >> thank you very much, rick, bertha and bob walking us through these markets today. now the u.s. added fewer jobs than expected in march. we're not done yet steve liesman is here to break down those numbers and how that report - >> and talk about this crazy day, kelly look at this chart here. it's hard -- this is the dow futures. it's hard to see where the job market ended up. this is the president's tweet about tariffs, the possibility of another tariff on another $100 billion of goods. what's this right here somewhere in here is secretary
mnuchin talking to cnbc and saying that there was a potential for a trade war. though he didn't want that to happen also jay powell talking. somewhere in here is the jobs number that dispointed it seemed like it was the least most impactful data point of the day. even though it disappointed so much numbers here, nonfarm payrolls, 103,000. we were looking for 178,000. you can see what a come down that was from the february number, 326. that's the reason nobody was all that excited you put those two together, come up with take couple hundred thousand, think of the march report as payback from strong february, add weather, unemployment changed for six straight month and labor force at 62.9% let's look at where jobs weren't in march what you see when you look at this chart the march is the weak stuff. you can see how strong stuff was in february. that's another reason why economists look at this. even though it was a
disappointing report, they were ultimately not all that disapointed. for those on the radio, i'll give you one example goods producesing up 15,000 in march but 106,000 in february. it was an important report everybody was watching it closely. but not the most impactful when you look at a drop like this from the president's tweet and then a drop like this from powell and. chin bomnuchin both talking >> i appreciate you did that for the radio. i'm the last to figure out the wonders of sirius/xm. >> i love it people talk about charts and don't say what's on it so i like to describe it >> it's a beautiful thing. steve, thank you very much mr. steve liesman at headquarters. time for a cnbc update this hour back to courtney reagan. >> secretary of defense james mattis says any military assistance to beef up border enforcement would follow current law. he made the remark as he
welcomed slovenia's defense minister to the pentagon >> we're looking at how we can best provide support to the department of homeland security. we'll figure it out and it will be consistent with law and congress no problem >> the new york times reporting white house chief of staff john kelly urged president trump to fire epa chief scott pruitt last week, but the president, who is personally fond of pruitt and sees him as an ally to roll back environmental protections resisted firing him. president trump is pushing for online retailerss to pay more in state and local taxes. one retailer that could be affected, the online store of the trump organization, which collects sales tax from consumers in only two states we've got 50 of them according to dow jones the website is based in trump tower. that's your cnbc news update at this hour. back over to you >> courtney, thank you courtney reagan. industrials were one of the worst performing sectors today at there was a lot of pain to go around
the "fast money" traders are going to tell us whether you should buy this dip in that sector when the "closing bell" continues right after this ♪ some moments can change everything. you can't always predict them, but you can game plan for them. for 150 years, generations of families have chosen pacific life for retirement and life insurance solutions to help them reach their goals. being ready for wherever life leads. that's the power of pacific.
it's been a wild week of trade war talk and a wild week for the markets. here's a look back at the biggest impact in our rapid recap. >> china hitting the united states with import tariffs. >> they are target american meat, nut, fruits, wine and steel and aluminum products. >> dow has taken a tumble, now down 510. >> i won't think this is going to be an action response, action response that's not what this should be
about. >> when peter navarro went on cnbc yesterday afternoon, it demonstrated a clear thing, that the selloff got the white house's attention. >> yesterday's big selloff, at one point down 700, yesterday down about 400 on the close. today, gains back. dow going out with a gain of 386. >> china striking back against u.s. tariffs, announcing $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs. >> the retaliation by china hit the tape, we saw a nearly immediate 300-point plunge. >> wouldn't be surprising at all if the net outcome of all this is some sort of a negotiation. >> fears of an all out trade war ease a bit. >> in many respects, i think we'll have a fantastic relationship long term with china but we have to get this straightened out. >> president trump doubling down on a trade war with china, proposing an addition ale $100 billion in tariffs. >> china says they're waiting, watching and ready to fight it to the bitter end. >> i'm not saying there won't be a little pain, but the market's gone up 40%, 42%, so we might
lose a little bit of it. >> there's the potential of a trade war. let me just be clear it's not a trade war the president wants reciprocal trade. >> well off the lows but an ugly day still again on wall street dow down 576 points on the bell. 2.3% drop. >> today wrapped up a rough week for the market industrials not spared they were down 3% for the week a lot today as well. it's been a roller coaster ride. here to talk about the industrials and whether you should be a buyer, are "fast money" traders, mike coe and guy adami. mike, that's you in the jacket there. we don't usually get a jacket. >> you know, the options action gang sports the jackets and "fast money" sports ties. >> those guys made me wear a jacket a couple weeks ago when i filled in for dan nathan, who was gallivanting in california >> good. as they should yeah, they're setting the higher standard mike, let's talk about the industrials and whether you think there's some good names in
there. caterpillar, is boeing technically an industrial -- i guess it's transport but they're getting hit hard on trade worries. >> clearly industrials in general are going to git hit hard in that kind of a situation. the name i was looking at more than any other is deere because is basically takes it in two two fronts number one, it's an industrial, secondly, 40% of refuvenues are agricultural when you talk about a trade war and how china is looking at agriculture, that's one of the things that would hurt deere i wonder if it might be overdone because trump changes his mind from one minute to the next. i think he's trying to keep people on their toes that got washed out this week. relatively that might be the better buy of the two. >> we've been standing around here and i will say this the sun also sets, unless you're in paris, france -- i happen to know you have three huge fans there now. the sun sets around 9:00 the last hour and it's like the market is not allowed to go lower. we blame the machines on the way down the machines are the same thing
that took us up. let me say this. all this volatility we're talking about now started long before people were talking about tariffs and facebook and google and all those, and amazon and all those things it started in early february when we had that wage growth number that's what we should be focused on let's talk about the industrials, guy that's why you're here. >> thank you for that, kelly i appreciate it. the best name out there in my opinion continues to be honeywell. the good news for the broader market is we continue to hold this 2580 level. the bad news is, we continue to test it. next week is going to be a fascinating week back to you, kel >> all right, guy. thank you. or should i say, merci to all the parisians watching is jacket and no tie equivalent to jacket and no tie are they seen as kind of like the same standard of dress for men? >> i'll let mike speak to that >> definitely not. it's the end of the week it's been a wild week. you got to loosen your tie and take that off. but you don't want to go home
without your jacket, so -- it's cold out there. >> i will say i'm always knotted up if i have a tie on, it's on. i'm not a hack that has it down around here like englebert humperdinck. >> i have to wear a jacket it's a floor rule at the exchange. >> that's right. they do keep the standard very high. >> i was wonder where guy was going with a earnest hemingway sun also rises, sun also sets, french reference i thought he was going in that direction and then he let me down. >> the bell tolls for guy adami. >> he let me down. >> we're literally going right now. thank you, guy adami and mike coe. catch "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. eastern time and "options action" after that. steve mnuchin speaking more about a potential trade war between the u.s. and china earlier today. >> well, i didn't say it's not the beginning of one i said we're actually not in a trade war. so, again, right now we have
initiated a plan tariffs will take some period of time to go into effect there will be public comments. so, while we're in the period before the tariffs go on, we'll continue to have discussions, but there is the potential of a trade worry. >> that's probably the sound bite of the afternoon. how might a trade war impact retail and consumers joining us is international trade retail leaders association. thank you for joining us your industry is really concerned. and i was reminded just having a glance at this that it's not clothing retailers we're talking about. it's the retailers of all kinds of products that have already been named on these tariff lists, right >> that's right. the concern we have is that we don't want american customers, american consumers being punished for chinese mistakes. when it comes to tariffs it will hit every sector, not just retail if you think about toys, clothes, shoes not being on the first initial list, but we're
concerned about the impact on everything that you bring into your home. so your televisions, your dishwashers. there's a lot of inputs. and this will really impact the global economy >> i see that you talked to people from congress all the time you're a lobbyist so you that you can to people from congress. what do you hear they're saying about the tariffs and the impact on their constituents? >> the leader when it comes to advocating for interest in congress we've been meeting with a number of members and staff up on the hill what we're hearing from them is that tariffs also are not the answer when it comes to addressing the concerns about china. for us, you know, we want to make sure their constituents, our customers at the end of the day, don't bear the punishment when it comes to these tariffs. >> do you think if they're talking about -- so we started, i believe, at $50 billion worth of products we put tariffs on. the president reportedly wants
to add another $100 billion to that that would sweep up a lot of industries we haven't yet talked about. is that your concern we already talked about agriculture and maybe airplanes but now the only way to get to a number that big is to include a lot of retailers, right >> when we heard the administration roll out the initial round of tariffs, we heard them make a promise to american consumers they wouldn't get caught up in these tariffs this initial tranche captures them when it comes to televisions and dishwashers and appliances as well as consumer electronics, but we're fearful that when you triple that, you're going to cover so much of american consumer products that, you know, there's no other place for the additional costs to go other than increasing prices. >> by the way, just before we go, why -- this is going to sound weird, but why do you care so much if those prices go up a little bit i mean, in a way you could substitute the goods, right? you could just sell other stuff or the money be will shift around but you think still remain if somebody wants to buy a
consumer product, they need the product and, you know, maybe they get one from vietnam or whatever >> that doesn't take into account the complexity when it comes to global value chains when you've got design, logistics as well as engineering jobs here in the united states that are developing some of these products, products, they may be manufactured in china but in fact, you know at the end of the day there is a lot of american jobs that are dependent upon the sourcing patterns that we have today. so what we have been conveying to the administration is that the importance the supply chain jobs it is a not just those products that are made in china but in fact the american jobs here in the united states, the retail jobs that are contributing to the u.s. economy that could be impacted by these tariffs. >> all right thank you drawing attention to what could happen to retailers here our next guest says the trade and tariff impact on that sector is overblown he is a cnbc contributor from j. rogers nippon and jwe.
you are the retail -- you know everything about this space. are you concerned about the impact here or no? >> first, i am not concerned there is really going to be a trade war. i think commerce doesn't want one, chinese don't wundt one and president trump doesn't want one. i'm thinking there will be a negotiation here as opposed to a trade war. let's pretend the tariffs go into place if the consumer has to pay more they are going to have a hart harder time buying the products we want then to by the direct impact may be less because everything announced so far would not be much of a direct impact. it would be the secondary impact where you pay more for a washing machine or more for canned goods and therefore you can't send as much on apparel and accessories and all of the things we sell generally in the retail chain. all in all, i don't thinkthis is a very big deal unless we do implement $150 billion worth of tariffs and then as your last
guest just said we would have to spread that over so many goods we would see direct impact is the price of a shirt would have to go up i'm thinking it probably would not going to happen. fit does, it is a long way off and we will be able to prepare for it we have been transferring out of china pretty fast anyway we are drying to do more in vietnam and bangladesh and closer to shore. i think that would accelerate that process with you yeah it would be painful >> it's dominic here, the last time we put retail so in focus when it comes to trade importing and exporting with this idea of a border adjusted tax we know it hasn't had much of an effect we have abandoned that conversation tariffs could be more. is the tariff the big deal with the border adjusted tax. >> i think the border adjusted
tax would have been the biggest deal across everything that came into the country from virtually every place. that would have been a bigger deal if they put these after thes in, weak retail remembers having trouble already. we had record bankruptcies and store closings last year the whole sector under pressure already. we are going to see more bankruptcies in 2018 than 2017, and 2017 set a record. we are going to see more store closings if you put any pressure on it at all and make prices go up and you can pass them through and they are going the fall through against your bottom line and you are going to lose groz margin and more people are going to be hurt here. that's the concern here. i think the border adjustment tax would have destroyed my kind of retailing that's a long story, kelly, i didn't know i was going to be on here until 45 minutes ago. when you are going to an even later you wind of looking like
this i thought your sar forical advance a moment ago was great >> i was joking around with those guys but you show up in a tucks. >> raising the standards on the show >> have a great even, thank you for joining us on such short notice >> thank you bye-bye. >> another selloff on wall street we will recap the headlines and look at how markets overseas ♪ feel that? that's the beat of global markets, are the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that, you don't chase fairing. stay with us you set it.
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wasn't just the u.s. markets having a roller coaster week it's been going an around the world, to. >> stock market volatility extended beyond the u.s. but fared better overall than the s&p. checking out the emerging markets, a weaker china, not good for its trading partners like india and philippines, these markets that are in the emerging market index closing down more than 2% for the week look at the shanghai composite, the chinese stobt, which did endure chopiness throughout the week it only closed down by about 1%. brazil, one of the key laggers though some analysts say brazil, a soybean producer stands to gain from u.s./china tensions.
futures have been rising this week based on the anticipation of more business coming its way from china leaders will be meeting in a summit an peru where trump is expected to encourage latin countries to ensure the u.s. and not china remains the partner of choice in trade. research shows that china export and import banks have provided more than $150 billion in loan commitments to latin american and caribbean countries. back to you. >> they are dishing out money all over the place. >> oh, yes. >> seema mody there. this is the thing, after all the volatility -- what do people keep saying to us. earnings are coming. here's a look at the earnings calendar next week it gets into full swing. on friday these companies are reporting. black rock is reporting then, too. >> yes. >> the banks are going to benefit -- the ones who have trading operations are going to
be helped by the -- >> a little bit. i actually think earnings are going to be a about it of a damp squid. not because they are going to be bad or -- i think the expectations are already high. i think they will be fulfilled ceos have a good way of doing that i think the more interesting issue is going to be trade and really i say that because it's not clear to me -- i don't believe trump really wants a trade war. i think the market. >> it is a not that earnings are going to be better, you shades going to be overhaddoed. >> over shadows, and because of the following. the market today is assuming there will be no serious trade war. i think if the you ask donald trump, he doesn't want a trade war. but it is a psychology issue right now because i don't see an easy way out for him where he saves face and where this happens in a relatively short period of time. >> i would say something that julia coronado said earlier, trade aside, the rest of the u.s. economy is actually doing
okay and corporate fundamentals are still okay maybe there is a case to be made that this volatility is just there because of those issues. if they get resolved we are okay. >> i don't know. >> i think that's the issue. >> trade aside but it is hard to put aside. >> you can't -- >> it is a big aside. >> a very big aside. it will be an interesting week thank you for joining us thats to it for "closing bell. thank you for joining us "fast money" starts right now. ♪ >> "fast money" starts right now two factors slamming stocks. trade war with china, and jerome powell sake despite the market volatility and a weak jobs report today that the fed is still on track for three rate hikes this year. the dow dropping nearly 800 at the lows of the day. falling back into a correction territory. with neither the u.s. or china