Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 30, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

5:00 pm
reported might be a little bit of a relief. >> tomorrow, you saw the calendar wednesday there is a bunch of different ones this week but the tesla issue, the line i saw from an analyst earlier is how bad is it going to be? >> exactly tons of talk of the cash burn at tesla. it will be a fun one. >> we'll have much more on that still to come that does it today for us mike, thank you as always. "fast money" starts right now. it is a moment of truth for apple. the nearly trillion tech giant ready to report earnlings tomorrow as the fate of the market hangs in the balance. apple has been struggling of late negative on the year, still in correction territory down 10 from highs this earnings season we've seen a lot of big stock moves to lift the market higher. will it be different this time for apple? guy? >> let's hope so because there are a lot of apple bulls out there.
5:01 pm
they're watching can't you feel the excitement? >> feel the tension! >> obviously today's announcement, the financial times talking about apple potentially giving $100 billion back to shareholders that obviously is going to help. so they need to do something along those lines. if you're asking me what number am i looking for and what number i think matters, service revenue. if that number comes in $9 billion or higher, that would represent close to 16%ish of total revenues i think that will help apple get the multiple that everybody wants them to get. i am optimistic for this quote, yes. >> apple, guy is good at getting in the weeds on these numbers. so is timmy. i look at it as a sentiment indicator. i'm still long in the name that's a $30 billion number. could be more coming in to this print. i think that apple together it on the chin early in this sell-off and i think that it's sort of due for that bounce before everything else is due for the bounce i remain long. >> the setup is really what is in apple's favor this time we had a slew of analysts. even the mow bullish, morgan
5:02 pm
stanley cut their numbers on iphones going into this quarter. really, you couldn't have a better setup for apple. >> other than today's news if it had been down a couple of bucks today, that would have been really good for apple for tomorrow i'm not long it. it's okay. i think that clearly people want services to be much higher that $30 billion is a run rate, not a this quarter rate. and the idea being that you get a much higher per multiple services than you do for hardware business. okay that makes sense i am concerned about the hardware part of the hardware business because that is the biggest part of the business by a lot. you know, it's not a crazy valuation at all and great that they're doing something with the cash. i believe they will. they have been proactive unlike alphabet but that's a different story that's okay. i'm all right not owning it going into earnings. >> if we're on that great show "options action," they would be talking about the skew or the implied move you're going to get on this i think it's as low as we've seen in a long time for everything you guys are talking about. we also have this report out
5:03 pm
there for the calendar q2, about roughly 10 million units that's disappointing citibank wrote about this probably a month ago i think that's in the market i don't think this is new news what is the multiple you want to pay for this company in this environment that makes it defensive to me, i think you can be long apple. i am not long the stock. i haven't been long the stock for six months. >> i think the interesting push-pull on the multiple, we had from bmo capital markets he was saying people want the hold on to their phones longer we've been talking about this on this desk how the cycle has been elongated. if you don't have as many refreshes on the product cycle, the product cycle is extended, but there are higher price points, it's a push-pull it's got to be a decade. >> seven, eightish when they start making these things. i'm the exception to this the other side, at a certain point you're forced to get a new phone. >> sure. >> you have this conversation
5:04 pm
because your phone starts the slow down. it can't keep up i get the whole thing. i also say this real quick katie huberty came out and -- she didn't cut anything. >> she said if you see weakness, buy 80 about a weakness. d.a. davison came out and put a $220 price tag on it if any of the numbers do disappoint tomorrow and you get that flush, i guarantee katie huberty who has been the ax, this is the entry point for apple today. >> for what it's worth, the straddle is 8 bucks. so it's telling you a 5% move one way or another which that's kind of a big move. >> that's what i mean. that's completely countering what i said. >> you were saying not a big move, though. >> i don't expect it to be a big move but it's okay for you the call me out >> you can still expect it to not be a big move. >> i guess my point is i don't and the reason i don't is because i think there is a lot of news out there in terms of
5:05 pm
the competitive threats in china. we heard of fourth place there is certainly some pressure on esps. at the same time this is a juggernaut in terms of cash flow at a time when people want to see the capital allocations back. >> i make it simple for myself because that's the best one. i trade best when i make it simple for myself. the 200-day moving average, 166.08 apple does not spent a heck of a lot of time below the 200-moving day average. if this starts to slide and spents more than a week below this average, that's a sea change for me. so that's what i'm gauging it is a binary moment for me i still am bullish. >> does the market move how am moves? >> dan mentioned this a week or so ago he said an kohl go higher and the broader market could have problems just to throw a fly in the ointment. >> sure, love flies. >> because i like to do that. >> he loves ointment >> an ointment
5:06 pm
>> anyway. >> keep moving bad. fly in the ointment. what is it >> much better quarter in terms of what the price action was -- >> horrible. >> horrible. so maybe the market has changed. apple may might crush tomorrow and maybe the price action will disappoint that's what i would be concerned about. >> well, that's the whole point. and that's not a good take on the market because apple, i think it's very difficult to argue apple is very expensive here and i have a big issue with w the market at least, when have i an issue with the market in terms of the direction nalt of it, it's because prized to sales, price to book, not cheap. p/e i don't think will work the same in a 3% and at 20 vol environment than we were before. apple is a cheap stock relative to its peers should it be defensive that's not good for the market. >> today was the last day of the trading month too. you saw a lot of flows -- inflows, outflows that screw around with the tape if we didn't have the last day of the month, i think the market would have done better than it did having a late-day sell-off
5:07 pm
apple would have done better. >> apple might be right for a breakout macros at the plasma the break it all down. hi, carter. >> hey there things move on earnings i'm going make the bet this is going to be the upside today's action alone is interesting in the context of a very bad tape. apple being up almost 2% but first, tech in general i want to look at the following statistics we know year to date consumer discretionary is leading the pack of the 11 sector, up 5.1. but real reality is it's not leading the pack what we know is the equal weight sector, you eliminate the amazon and netflix among others, the truth sits a dud but that's not the case for tech tech actual is up 3.2. and its quell weight performance is better than the actual. there actually still is a tailwind to idiosyncratic growth now apple of course down on the year versus an equal weighted
5:08 pm
sector so you're talking 800 base points of spread there all right. now take a look at the following that is interesting. you go back to the beginning of data, the circumstance where apple is down in the january-april pair, while the tech sector is up. that's happened a total of eight out of 36 years. 22% of the time. when that has happened, which is the circumstance we have now, here is what apple has done going forward, one week, two weeks, three weeks later it is up, up, up but more importantly, that's a median statistic which means some years it's down but the odds of it being up, 85%, 85%, 57 i'm going to make the bet that today's action alone, which was very bull initiative the context of a bad tape is a tell that apple might just be defensive in the context of a slippery tape so apple is ahead of itself. it's made no progress. it is dead even with the market for three years.
5:09 pm
so we can't consider it sort of a runaway stock or expensive and then the chart itself, no lines. here come the lines. and i'm going to make the bet that we bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce so i want to be long for that. in response to earnings. >> carter comes over. >> of course >> anyone in the pantheon has to come over to the desk. come on over annie is going to bring a chair over thank you, annie quick question about the context of those 22% of the occurrences where apple is down and tech is up is that absolute i mean, it's absolute, correct >> up to this point, the calendar year where the stock is down, it's sector. which is the biggest part is up. apple outperforms one, three, five weeks later >> and technology itself, does that also do well in those periods? >> no, that's more of sort of random but the key is the odds of it happening and the actual results itself are quite consistent. >> just so i clarify something
5:10 pm
when you say it outperforms, it outperforms the market on those occasions when it was down or it outperforms tech >> up absolute. >> it's up absolute. >> and outperforms the market. remember, it's not all the time. sometimes it doesn't work, right? it's been down but the odds of it running 85% and i think today's action alone, you guys could speak that, people look at the tape actively big day today. and everything was read. >> this is a leading question, cbw. steve mentions the last day of the month. maybe there are factors at work. great earnings last week market performance has not been particularly stellar you have talked about ending in a crescendo. i'm probably speaking a word you didn't use but are we on the verge of something here given what we see in earnings? >> this is not fundamental it's just common sense if stock after stock after stock puts out great results and the trading act after this is very poor, from goldman sachs to google, you have the take away
5:11 pm
something which is maybe people are full maybe there is no more money to go into equities in a big kind of way apple i think is defensive, though, curiously. >> so carter, do you see anything else on you you look at these -- make it macro for me when you see tech or apple singularly outperforming, when we talk about how much percentage of the s&p there is for tech, percentage-wise on an energy level, do you see energy continuing to outperform, even though it's a much smaller position do you give it as much credibility? >> it's the only of three sectors, the third one that is up on the year again, it's so small it reached under 6% in the s&p it's just now back above 6 it can't save the market kit be up outright on its own relative, but it won't matter for the market >> steve talked about how apple hasn't really -- it's been spending a bit of time below the 200 and he doesn't like that i don't like that. the last time apple traded down through the 200 with a decide
5:12 pm
move then is december of 2015. you can make an argument your chart shows it's kind of bouncing here. >> it's god goth to bounce here. so the duration of time, you can sense it corrected >> think of it as a simple math of a moving average. it's a lot of inputs two, hundred. if you are trading below your average price over two days, definition, you haven't made a new high in at least six to eight months that's the case with apple the burden of proof is on the bull my feeling it will be contrary and do well on its own. >> thank you, carter what will we do today where the tape had terrible price action, basically closing on the lows of the session. >> beardstown ladies we had that stock draft. >> on the power lunch. >> celgene. >> i don't like the root against people. >> you're rooting against. >> you're rooting against the beerstone ladies. >> nice to see them out of the gate slow. >> ahead of what should be a
5:13 pm
pretty interesting realmost, almost bought tesla today. thinking about buying it tomorrow. >> what prevented you? >> i want to see technicals bear out one more day. >> karen >> today was really disappointing actually i thought there was a lot of things to like coming into today. you had the big mcdonald's earnings you had big merger monday. that's usually good for something. the marathon deal, the sprint t-mobile deal. all the things setting up for what should have been a very good day and i don't know if it was the netanyahu process conference that certainly weighed on the market guy touched on intel, i'm long, which i really like. that acts terribly, terribly. >> mcdonald's was good it finished strong actually. >> merging markets failed the 200 today. i started trimming some of that on friday. you can see the trends they trade back up and then fade
5:14 pm
it enough said. >> let's go to hampton >> as you can see, this is at&t ceo randall stephenson leaving the federal courthouse here in washington, d.c. seven weeks after it began, the at&t-time warner doj antitrust trial has concluded. it's now in the hands of a judge who will decide the case and at the end of closing arguments, we were told that we'd have a decision on or about june 12th. in the end, the closing arguments came down to kind of where the case began the government especially saying that if this merger goes through, the whole competitive landscape of the video/tv industry would change substantially with a merged at&t-time warner having much more leverage in the future in terms of negotiations with its competitors over content and distribution at&t pushing back saying, no exactly the opposite would happen it's a changing world. and competition is the byword,
5:15 pm
especially from the so-called fangs. it's been a busy day the two ceos not wanting to say anything with the case at critical juncture right now. seven weeks from when we began, the trial is in the hands of trial judge richard leon, who will decide this case one way or the other. back to you. >> thank you very much, hampton pearson outside the courthouse where the closing arguments have concluded in the at&t-time warner antitrust trial it was an interesting development today when the doj came out in their closing arguments and said if the deal is not rejected, we could seek structural remedies. it almost felt like they were saying if we lose, we're willing to go the second step down from what we were asking. >> we're going to still go after you. >> right. >> if they said the opposite, that if we blocked this, why don't you seek structural remedies which is a way of saying hey, there is other ways the get this deal done, which is not what they said t-mobile and sprint getting crushed as they announced a $26
5:16 pm
billion merger why does the deal have shareholders running scared? we've got the details. plus, shea regulator that sent shockwaves through the cryptouniverse with his comment embracing bitcoin as an asset. chris giancarlo will be here to tell what's he thinks the fate of the cryptocurrency. and later, the bull market is near lay decade old while it might not die of old age, what do you do in a fading bull market? we're live from the stock market in new york city's times square. in new york city's times square. much more "fast" straight ahead. and prove that the real world beats a post. ♪ ♪ ambitions live everywhere. synchrony helps make them happen with customized rewards and financing available at over 350,000 locations. synchrony. what are you working forward to? yes or no?gin.
5:17 pm
do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online.
5:18 pm
we use our phones the same way these days. so why do we pay to have a phone connected when we're already paying for internet? shouldn't it all just be one thing? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you can get up to 5 lines of talk and text included at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data.
5:19 pm
see how you could save $400 or more a year. and get $200 back when you sign up for xfinity mobile and add a new line of unlimited. xfinity mobile. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call or visit an xfinity store today. somebody who basically steals an idea because we're running tests, and he knows exactly the word launching this tomorrow calls for an emergency press release because it's the fastest press conference ever and basically copycats what we're doing. sorry, to me that's a con artist >> that was marcelo claure taking a jab at john legere in what had been a long running battle between the two wireless moguls, at least until now the two telecom giants agreeing to a $27 billion merger over the weekend that would value the combined company at around $146 billion. but will the deal get approved by the government? let's bring in david faker who
5:20 pm
is live at the milikin conference in beverly hills. the stock market seems to be saying the deal is not going to go through. >> it does, melissa. the two stocks had run up is a bit into the announcement itself there may have been some disappointment in some of the cap x prognostications and therefore the free cash flow numbers. but you're right the market rendering an early verdict here we'll see. everything that the companies have done since they came out of the box yesterday afternoon with the announcement has been done to design or designed to try to make the case early on here and give them some momentum with regulators as to why this is going to be a pro competitive deal remember, this is the third or maybe even you want to count another failed attempt, the fourth time they've tried. once before, 14, tom wheeler, who ran the fcc said no way, we're not going to let you do this this time the fcc is considered to be a lot more potentially willing to listen.
5:21 pm
perhaps more lenient but the doj where this will also end up and whether they will allow four competitors to go to three, particularly after the price competition that has been so favorable to so many consumers over the last five years as t-mobile has been so aggressive may not continue. well, that's the question. the two companies talking about their expectations of spending billions to build out 5 g, and it's important to the national security of the united states. talking about growing competition they're facing from cable companies such as comcasts that are moving more aggressively into the wireless industry but question still is will it be enough another question actually is while this regulatory review goes on and on, will sprint still be the tough competitor it has been to t-mobile here is marcelo claure >> we don't back off as a matter of fact, we're even looking for friends right now. tomorrow we go back to
5:22 pm
competition. we're going to try to attract t-mobile and at&t customers. this is going to be the largest investment continuing to build our 5g network we're going to continue to run the company the same way the last four years. we're going to continue to compete and we're going to continue to win. >> of course, the financial wherewithal of this combined company will be such that it can truly compete with the likes of at&t and verizon in terms of building out a network sprint weighed down by all that debt, facing the enormous cap x needs it would simply knew it wasn't going to be able to meet the challenges alone, and has been trying for years to figure out a way to get this deal done. the way it got done, melissa, was by giving up control completely to t-mobile and its parent company, deutsche telekom, which will own as much as 42% of the combined company, will consolidate its mantles on its on and will have its management team in control >> you know, early on, david, on
5:23 pm
the conference call on sunday night, they were making the case early on that the competitive landscape was much broader than just verizon as well as at&t and they specifically mention comcast. and i'm wondering if the comcast xfinity mobile offering is actually as oh bust an offering as they're trying to make it out to be when it has disappointed analysts on the street in terms of number of subscribers that they were able to enroll >> yeah. although it has been ramping, and they did add more subscribers than verizon and at&t lost, i haven't used it i don't know it is bundled with the other services that comcast offers they're using the verizon spectrum network in the agreement charter moving more aggressively towards a wireless offerings, melissa it's one of a number of areas they're at least trying to make this argument that things have changed since the last time you thought about a potential deal like this. 5g, the capital intensity and what that's going to require, cable into their business.
5:24 pm
and don't forget, 5 g may also raise the possibility of competing with the cable companies on broad band into the homes. so for all those reasons, they're hoping they get a better look this time from certainly what is a more favorable ftc and the doj. edid speak to del raheem earlier today. asked him if he has any thoughts on the deal. he took a pass >> all right, david, thank you great reporting out there. david faber joining us from the milikin conference with all the merger talk, we thought we would play a little deal or no deal. let's start off with print and t-mobile what do you think, grasso? >> thing is going to be a eal. i agree with you, the price action says there is not going to be a deal today i think that t-mobile and sprint need each other to be able to compete on scale so i hear everyone that says it's anti-competitive when you go four to three but i think three and four need to merge to stay competitive with one and two to keep prices
5:25 pm
down >> steve, how much of this relies on this new definition of could this be a broad band deal? and do you think that's really what's going to make this deal get through? because a lot of people call this wireless transaction. >> if they can say that this is about national security and it's about 5g with the chinese government and more jobs long enough to confuse the regulators and they can get something done. this is their how many times bite at the apple. we start in 2014, '16, and now we're seeing it again. >> let's go on to at&t-time warner deal or no deal? >> i think there is going to be a deal here. i think time warner -- time warner and at&t did a much better job than the government i think if you're watching on a deal spread, it's narrowing. so people believe that to be the case remember, the deal is not worth -- it's worth 101 and
5:26 pm
change because at&t is below the bottom of the collar and that sort of traded down on the crappy earnings of verizon and at&t all that being said, i do think it gets done i think they just presented a stronger case. you never know it's in front of a judge but more likely than not it closes. >> what do you make of the comments from the doj in whatever this was, somewhere midday where they basically said even if we lose, we could be thinking about other ways to tab this deal, different variations to get to the same place. >> trying to push them into some kind of settle, some kind of throwing out there either getting rid of dish or turner. and i don't think -- i don't think at&t-time warner, don't think they need to do that i think they're confident in their case. >> let's end here on disney and fox. deal or no deal, guy >> i say deal. and listen, i think comcast obviously wants in this game comcast going after sky. but disney needs this because i think they want controlling
5:27 pm
snare hulu for whatever reason because i think they want to take on netflix at their own game and they want the integrate espn which has been failing with fox sports which is also not particularly great but i think it will be easier to spin off a combination of espn-fox sports. i think hulu is the reason they want it which is why i think this gets done. >> for more details on this deal and the history of the two companies' fiery pasts, head to still ahead, east course hitting the courts one of the game owners the philadelphia 76ers about what's at stake and just how serious the nanne is about e-sports. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business and worldwide. in the meantime, here is what is coming up on "fast." morgan stanley says the time may be running out on the nine-year bull market. the man behind the call will explain why, and the one sector to buy right now plus it is a question every bitcoin baller is asking
5:28 pm
>> to be or not to be. >> no. the question is bitcoin a currency or a security ahead of the cftc will make the call when "fast money" returns everything. and thatk adds up to thousands of dollars each year... so i can keep growing my business in big leaps! what's in your wallet?
5:29 pm
5:30 pm
welcome back to "fast money. it is no secret that the crypto craze has taken the world and this show by storm many one question mains on many investors' minds, what exactly is bitcoin for more on that let's bring in chris giancarlo. he joins us from the milikin conference in los angeles. chris, welcome to the show we want to start off with the million dollar question. thing is a real debate, even amongst bitcoin enthusiasts. what is bitcoin. is it digital gold is it a currency is it a security could it be all of the above what do you think? >> it's a great debate, melissa. and a lot of people are look at it from so many different angles and we at the cftc have been
5:31 pm
looking at it for a number of years now. the statutes on what we operate were written, in our case, in 1935 with the fcc, in 1933 and '34. it's hard to look at the statutes and find out where something as new and innovative as bitcoin and many of the other cryptocurrencies, where do they fall into a regulatory regime that was written decades ago there. the kiss of the cftc, we see elements of commodities in it that are subject to our regulation but depending on which regulatory regime you're looking at, it has different aspects of all of that. in our case we have seen the licensing and the operation of bitcoin futures contracts which are cash settled contracts on bitcoin operated by our two large exchanges, the cme, chicago mercantile exchange and the cboe and those contracts are working quite well >> you have said in the past, chris, that you believe bitcoin operates very much or acting very much like a commodity in the context of gold.
5:32 pm
do you see similarities where you say, you know, right now at least in its early, early stage, it does look like x, y, or z >> there are certainly aspects of this that you might call a virtual asset. a virtual asset like gold. only it's virtual. it's digital but it is an asset that many find worthy of holding for a long period of a time. and that have aspects to it that might not be as ideal as a medium of exchange, but might be more suitable as a long-term buy and hold strategy. but the truth of the matter is that bitcoin and a lot of its other virtual currency counterparts really have elements of all of the different asset classes, whether a medium payment, whether a long-term asset. and so as a world and as regulators, we're coming to grips with this just now in realtime
5:33 pm
and it's complicated and i don't see it being resolved any time soon. >> are you worried that you or any of the other regulators out there, including the securities and exchange commission might be overzealous in regulating bitcoin and in doing that will stifle the innovation that can come with bitcoin? you have fallen into the camp that there can be no blockchain without a bitcoin. some people say they endorse blockchain but don't endorse bitcoin. you don't believe that are you more in favor of a light touch right now? >> so as a regulatory agency, our agency, the commodity futures trading commission has often been in the forefront of technological evolution. it's part of our dna as an agency we try to apply our statute on a principles based approach. well look at the core principles and apply it to new innovations like this. and that's the approach we've sean in the case of bitcoin futures. but all of us as regulators have
5:34 pm
to apply our statute in the spirit in which it was written, in the spirit in which it was conceived by congress. at the end of the day, it's for congress and not regulators to decide whether new policies should be evolved for these new new asset classes. jay clayton from the sec and i recently testified in front of the senate banking committee and we talked to congress about whether maybe some new legislation might be appropriate in this area and i think you will see going forward perhaps in this congress or future congress an attempt to deal with this new innovation. but it is -- i know bitcoin has been in place eight or nine years or so. but the fact of the matter is it still is relatively knew for us at the agency. it's going to take some new open-mindedness, some new way of thinking about it for us to get our heads around it. >> do you have confidence that congress is going to come up with a framework, a regulatory
5:35 pm
framework to govern this new emerging asset class in technology >> i think some will depend on the asset classes itself, how they develop but i think there is certainly an appetite amongst a number of congressmen and women and senators that i've spoken to approach this with some new eyes, some new thinking. so i think there is a growing chorus on capitol hill for some rethinking here. >> right i want to ask you about a white paper you just released about swaps reform you boil it down for the individual investor watching the show, the importance of this >> sure. so as you know coming out of the last financial crisis, congress took up the dodd/frank act and put that -- passed that in 2010 and left it to regulatory agencies and in a large case, my own regulatory agency the cftc did implement a lot of the regulations. and what we've done, we've now got four years of experience because most of those reforms were in place by 2014.
5:36 pm
we've got four years of experience, four years of data, four years of academic study, and four years of market experience with those reforms. and what we did, i teamed up with our chief economist, and we produced a 100-page paper assessing the impact of those reforms. what's worked well what's worked less than perfectly. what's work and created a whole new series of issues we've put forward some ideas for what the next generation, what we call swaps reform 2.0, what that might look like how do we optimize these reforms. >> right. >> so that we cannot only have systemic stability, but good solid economic growth and economic and market vitality. >> right chris, thank you so much for joining us we appreciate it chris giancarlo. >> thank you it's been a pleasure thank you very much. >> all right what do you think, grasso? >> i think these exchanges in regulatory bodies have went from no, never, to maybe sometimes. and they're leading into absolutely always. it's not a question of if.
5:37 pm
it's a question of when for all of them. still ahead, they say age ain't nothing but a number but that might not be the case when it comes to the nearly decade old bull market top strategist mike wilson will be here to tell us why the seemingly unstoppable bull run could be nearing an end. plus, disney and twitter are teaming up we have all the details. much more "fast money" right much more "fast money" right after this we also have the age-old problem of bias in the workplace. really... never heard of it. seriously? it's all over the news. i've heard of it. ahh. the question is... who's going to fix all of this? an actor? probably not. but you know who can solve it? business. that's right. the best-run businesses can make the world run better. because solving big problems is what business does best. and doing good is just good business. shhh! sorry. so let's grow more food, with less water. and make healthcare, more healthy.
5:38 pm
it's okay, i've played a doctor. what have we got here? let's take on the wage gap, the opportunity gap, the achievement gap. together, we can tackle every elephant in the room. and save the rhino while we're at it. because, whatever the problem, business can help. and i know who can help them do it... when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.
5:39 pm
welcome back to "fast money. age before beauty, unless we are talking about the age of the
5:40 pm
current bull market, which is now nine years old and that has our next guest worried. he was one of wall street's biggest bulls. mike wilson is morgan stanley's chief u.s. equity strategist he joins us now. mike, good to see you. when i heard about all the deals being announced this morning, i thought maybe this is a sane of an age bull market companies are acquiring growth as opposed to seeing that growth is happening around them and they can do it on their own. how worry ready you? >> well, look, i think so it's a process that's begun we have written about this extensively. i think the valuation peak was december i would argue that sentiment and positioning people is january. and now we're waiting for a price peak we said we think it's probably in the third quarter it will coincide with the peak forward earnings for this year going forward 12 months. but we've already seen stocks devalue by 15 or 20% in many cases. in some cases stocks devalue by 30%. it can last a while. but this is a much different environment than last year, obviously. >> you made your point that the s&p 500 in recent weeks down by
5:41 pm
about 7% for p/es down by about 11%. we are going to see the peak in forward p/es or we have seen the peak already >> we've seen the peak in valuation. that's in. i'm excite hawaiily convicted in that view. that's been our call for this year what is offsetting it still is earnings growth. what i don't like right now is we're seeing some of the former leaders really fall by the wayside. and the market is starting to take on more defensive characteristics. so it's going to take months it's not going the all happen at once the markets are diabolical they want to lull us in. and we're very bullish right here at 25, $26.50 we think is a good entry point for a move towards higher highs we till think there is higher highs this year. that's a good return. >> in terms of positioning portfolio, are you positioned on bull or do you have to account now for the death of the bull market >> we started to scale into more defensive areas. well upgraded utilities in february we traded out of them.
5:42 pm
we downgraded tech at the same time more of an equal weight. we're looking at health care is kind of on our list as an area we starting to take a look at. it's not all going to happen at once my experience with tops is they take quarter, sometimes years to kind of play out and it's going to be a stage rotation towards more of these defenses. >> but you really like energy right now, right >> energy has both properties. >> yeah. >> i'm glad you brought that up. in a world where defenses may not act defensively, because rates are going up defensive areas like tushlgts telco, reits, they have gotten overvalued in era. cyclical, cycle can energy prices going up. but they also have some defensive characteristics because they're very cheap and they pay pretty good yields. energy is by far our number one sector right now. >> dud i don't like telecom and utilities before the recent drubbing in the markets because of higher rates? >> we have not upgraded those sectors at all.
5:43 pm
>> okay. >> we upgraded utilities for a trade. we're under way telco, reits and -- >> so the environment is still there. >> we do think there is going to be an opportunity this summer and part that offing is going to coincide with high-end rates which is 325 range for ten years. >> good see you. mike wilson. you like energy a lot too. for these reasons? >> i like energy i think going into the iranian deal, that's going to be the peak for the energy. and i think you're going to see the market sell off. everyone is all hawkish going into it. netanyahu with his comments against iran saying that they're trying to make secretly a nuclear bomb i think this is all fostering saudi, aramico there is all this pace and tail winds into higher energy prices. it's helping the subgroup, but i think it's go to peter out in may. >> clorox. >> estimate. >> at 52-week close. the market still within a whisper of an all-time high, the stocks have underperformed for
5:44 pm
now. are they making a statement about higher interest rates or making a statement about the consumer i don't know but i don't think it's all that good for the broader market. >> maybe it's two sides of the coin we saw what went on with amazon and the strength that amazon has, right, in makes competitive pressures increase for a lot of these guys with their amazon bases. all sorts of headwinds. >> amazon is pushing target and walmart to do things they should have done a long time ago. the competition way overstored i like banks a lot i've been in energy for a year this sector is behaving differently because the companies are doing things differently for shareholders, which is giving capital back, not spending everything on growth that's what they should have done a long time. >> all right still ahead, e-sports is hitting the courts the nba k2 tournament kicking off tomorrow we'll talk to a player from one of the biggest franchises. and disney and twitter announcing a new content deal today. we'll give you all the details when "fast money" returns.
5:45 pm
5:46 pm
5:47 pm
welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of twitter. the stock soaring nearly 5% after announcing a partner with disney's espn to create new live content to stream across twitter's platform b let's get to mike khouw in austin, texas for more on this. >> hi there. we can see from the share prices of disney and twitter the street responding to this pretty favorably. they definitely were in the options market twitter was one of the top ten
5:48 pm
most single stock names in terms of options activity and calls significantly outpaced puts. where we saw most of the activity was the weekly 30 calls, the ones expire this coming friday were the most active about 8,000 of those were trading for prices as highs a 1:25 and averaging about 70 cents. those are bullish bets that traders are making that it's actually going to be above 31 by end of the week. >> mike khouw, thanks for that check out the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, basketball's biggest stars are about to get their game on with esports the nba 2k tournament kicking f re in new york city. we'll talk to one of the top players in the space, when "fast players in the space, when "fast money" returns really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade,
5:49 pm
we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. if you have a garden, you know... weeds are low-down little scoundrels. with roundup's sure shot wand, you don't need to stoop to their level. draw the line. the sure shot wand extends with a protective shield to pinpoint those pesky bedfellows.
5:50 pm
it lets you kill what's bad right down to the root, while comfortably guarding the good. draw the line with roundup. trusted for over 40 years. ♪ ♪
5:51 pm
5:52 pm
5:53 pm
5:54 pm
5:55 pm
5:56 pm
5:57 pm
and it's also a story mail aabout people and while we make more e-commerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country, we never forget... that your business is our business the united states postal service. priority: you
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
time for the final trade tim seymour? >> big on the gaming i i'll go ea because you can't by ten krebbet here. ea is in the game. >> karen >> tvt i do not think we have seen the top rates or inflation i think they're going to be back here very soon. >> grasso? >> buy tesla not a consensus call, but it's getting very interesting to me. >> i see steez on kimmel or something. let me tell you, a year from now we won't have time for "fast money. >> he is going to big time us. >> tell him what steez stands for. >> style with ease >> i didn't know what it meant
6:00 pm
>> your final trade, plays sni >> take 2 interactive. >> i'm melissa lee thank you so much for watching see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. all right. this market goes through litters faster than i can go through a bag of


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on