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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  June 4, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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long-term situation. >> the stock is like at an all-time high. >> microsoft can snap its fingers and write the check for $7.5 billion if they so chose. when they bought linkedin it was for cash it was positive for microsoft because they were turning all this unused cash into a business instead of sitting there earning nothing. >> michael, that much. that does it f "closing bell" today. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site verlooking new york city' times square, your creditors are here shares of apple have been going insane hitting a fresh all-time high and things are about to get even crazier for the stock he'll be here to explain why. plus the bitcoin bear is out in full force. tom lee says they are getting it all wrong. he'll take us bitcoin bear hunting. first breaking news on starbucks. the stock sinking as executive chairman and former ceo howard
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schultz is planning to leave the company at the end of the month. let's get straight to andrew ross sorkin who broke this story earlier. andrew. >> big news here in seattle. it is the end of an era for starbucks, as you just said. howard schultz announcing his plan to step down not just from his role at the company as executive chairman but also from the board and that decision fueling some speculation that he could pursue public service, that this might be one step before that. i should tell you that myron ullman, the former chairman and ceo of j.c. penney will be appointed the chaiof starbucks. mellody hobson, many cnbc viewers know very well, also another board member appointed vice-chair as part of this transition kevin johnson, the ceo of starbucks, will remain in place. in large part you talked about the stock falling 1%, but this transition has been in place quite some time.
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i remember being here in seattle when howard schultz stepped down as ceo and perhaps that was the more momentous decision in terms of the company's future. questions about the company's future of course continue. there has been huge growth in places like china. they just announceplans to expand in fact to build up to two new stores a day in china, up from one store a day which they had been averaging before and a partnership, $7 billion deal withes nestle on its packaged goods. same-store sales in the united states have continued to struggle big questions about whether they can overcome challenges around technology, getting in the store and out of the store quickly and what that means. of course the public relations hit that the company took this past month and a half over racial bias training and the training that they did last week, the plan was actually set
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in place for howard schultz to step down on may 15th. they had talked about that for several months, i'm told, starting in january. once the incident in philadelphia happened in april, that plan was put on hold and upended and of course we're now hearing about it now i want to read you real quick a note from howard schultz to the company's employees. he writes the following. i set out to build a company that my father, a blue-collar worker and world war ii veteran never had a chance to work for we have done that and so much more by balancing profitability, and social conscience, compassion and rigor and love and responsibility there is speculation that he could run for public office. this is what he said in his note to employees i'm going to be thinking about a range of options from philanthropy to public service, but i'm a long way from knowing what the future holds. i spoke with howard earlier this morning for a "new york times"
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column and he expanded on that he said i want to be truthful with you without creating more speculative headlines. for some time now, i have been deeply concerned about the country, the growing division at home and our standing in the world. one of the things i wa in my nextpter is figure out if there's a role i can play giving ack i'm not exactly sure what that means kbryet. of course that will not stop the speculation d the questions. we will have mr. schultz with the answers live on "squawk box" at 8:00 a.m. eastern time and you can tune in and hear all of this directly from mr. schultz himself. >> we look forward to that but it's interesting when schultz took on the role of starbucks defender when the whole philadelphia store issue came about, he was the one front and center he was the one explaining the company, apologizing for the company. it wasn't the ceo. and that sort of made you wonder
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what kind of potential future he might have more in the public spotlight. >> you know, i would take the opposite side of that in two respects one is actually immediate aftermath of the incident, kevin johnson was the one who went out and was the one you saw on television he was the one on "good morning america" literally the day after. the training program no doubt was spearheaded by howard schultz. but i would suggest that howard schultz in terms of the public positions and social issues that the company has taken on over the years was -- what took place in the last month, i think, is just indicative of how the company has approached so many of these issues, whether it begun rights, whether it be lgbt issues, you know, they have approached all -- they have been involved in this conversation in a way long before it was fashionable for most ceos to talk about social issues of course there's a big controversy, by the way, about
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whether ceos should be even entering some of these debates themselves but if there is a ceo that will get credit or blame for what has turned over the past two years into a roar from the ceo community on so many issues, it is in fact howard schultz. >> andrew, it's karen. all kinds of questions, but one relateto starbucks stock, specifically howard schultz' stock. it looks like he owns 36 million shares. >> yep. >> any thought what he would do with that? is he going to put it in a foundation what's the plan? >> whe told me and now reading this note that he sent out to employees, he has a family foundation, which has been in place quite some time. he's also planning to write a book about corporate social responsibility i asked him directly and asked the company about whether he plans to sell his stock. he does not plan to sell his stock, so i do not think that that is something that will be an overhang on the stock, at least for now. he has, i believe, joined the
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giving pledge. i believe he did that many years ago, so i imagine at some point he will be gifting or giving away that stock and i imagine some of that might flow through the foundation of course if he were to run for president in the future, a year o'two or two ago i think i would have tell you he would have to sell all of that stock. i think the rules may have changed. that's actually a very interesting question where the answer was quite clear a year or two today, it's not as clear today. >> or he can get a big tax deduction. >> or he can get a big tax deduction. my opinion is not really important. the only one we care about is kanye's. >> andrew, thanks so much. andrew ross sorkin who broke the story earlier. you see the reaction after hours, down 1.4% or so what do you think, guy, what's the impact if any? >> i think the 1% sell-off to me is just a reaction of algorithms
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reading this and selling the stock off. i think the problems with starbucks are far greater than mr. schultz leaving. we had this conversation at the beginning of 2017 or so, that he had announced it we talked about the stock making an all-time high in the spring when he was going step down which is effectively what happened this should come as no surprise. my biggest hangup with the company is valuation and is it justified with the growth we've seen margins in the u.s. continue to decline. if you believe they'll have double the amount of stores in china in the next five years, maybe buy the stock. i'm frightened by valuation. >> i get that. but put in the loss of the visionary who guided the company to its heights, when you put that on top of already the slowing growth that guy said in north america, do you get more concerned? >> no, no. kevin johnson is a global consducts company veteran and i think that's why he was brought in here
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i'm not worried about the valuation at all i think at 23 times 2019 or actually '18, a $65 dollar stock. howard schultz didn't do this to grandstand at a run for president or anything else this company has had a focus on -- there was no racial bias issue at starbucks as far as i'm concerned. i think this is a company that's been out there for a long time and taken a very significant leadership role. because of that, it's a global company that stands on its own without howard schultz i think they'll double their store count and have roughly 600 stores ar through 2022 u.s. margins have gone from 25% to 22% this nestle deal is creative this is just about when were they going to do this. they were prepared for this for a long time. >> let's listen to what kevin
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johnson said back in december of 2016 this is shortly after taking the reins from howard schultz. >> we talk to each other multiple times a day on a wide rang topic i know one thing every time howard pops his head in, there's going some new, exciting ventura head. >> no more popping his head into that door, though. >> you know, it's interesting talking about north american margins. we know what the draw has been, obviously this push towards online ordering. a lot of this stuff was costly and they had some bottlenecks over the last year and a half. it seems like they cleared that up also here's a company growing sales and earnings double digits it's not particularly expensive in this market then when you take that number, they have like 27,500 stores 10% of them are in china and you guys say they're going to do two a day so they're adding 600 a year this is really a story about china over the next decade to me, i think the north american stuff right now is noise and i think this
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announcement is noise. >> i agree it seems like they have been planning for this in slow motion for a while. the step back this time as opposed to the time 18 years, 17 years ago, it felt very, very different. there he was just --e couldn't o jump back ine sidelines. >> he left the first time as ceo. >> right >> in 2000 in fact take a look. we've calculated how the stock did in the five years after some high-profile ceos stepped down, including howard schultz not bad. not bad. and this time it's different we actually have a ceo who's been in place for a while. he's stepping down as executive chairman. >> as bill gates, they had a very smooth transition as well he talked about it well before and bonner was in place. that's not what was weighing on the stock. 1%, 2%, that's not a big deal. >> i think the issue starbucks has, companies like mcdonald's a major competitor, getting people in there multiple times a
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day on desserts and coffee people follow their business model. this is one of the iconic global brands if you don't think they can leverage that and are not doing that right now, i just think that this is not a big deal. this is something this company has been running fine without him. you're buying weakness on this een in range for two years and i think it stays in one. >> it wouldn't be surprising to see a trump batweet bashing starbucks. coming up, apple on a tear after a slew of announcements after its annual developers conference and the run has just begun. we will explain. plus tom lee will debunk what he is calling the three biggest myths about crypto currency. and later, facebook facing the perfect share of troubles. roger mcnamee says the worst is not over for the social media giant but he still likes the stock. we are live from times sare quin
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welcome back to "fast money. apple hitting an all-time high as its worldwide developers conference kicks off josh lipton out in san jose with all the details. >> apple ceo tim cook on stage right behind me here reminding developers just how much they
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earn how through his app store take a listen. >> this week we're going to achieve another huge milestone the money that developers have earned through the app store will top $100 billion. the app store is clearly the best place for you to be rewarded for your hard work and creativity >> apple also gave a sneak peek of ios 12 which will arrive this fall apple saying it will be a faster and more responsive os and will run on devices all way back to the 5s there was a bit of talk about siri today a feature called siri shortcuts. you'll be able to create custom commands let's say you're going home. that could trigger siri to text your roommate, maybe set your thermostat or give directions. you can see and control how much time you spend in apps remember, shareholders sent a
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letter asking the company to develop software to give parents mo control, ar kit 2 was unveiled that will allow two people to play games in augmented reality at the same time, a big deal for gamers there was some new messaging features you can now make an emoji of yourself called memoji and face time, it got an upgrade as well. it's going to support group video chat up to 32 people so what didn't we see today, no hardware refreshes there were some rumors we might get an update to the ipad pro, maybe a new iphone se. that didn't happen maybe that's coming in september. >> thank you so much, josh lipton app apple pushing the nasdaq to a record close the stock is up 13% adding $83 billion in value so far this year is the best way to make money in
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this market just as simple as bu apple seems like you can't really avoid it. >> congrats on the memoji. >> it's going to have a josh lipton feel. >> i was working on it -- what do you think about apple, guys >> money you should ask that i'm not going to pretend i've been a raging bull, i have not been you'll recall a couple of months ago katie said there would be rough sledding but buy it on weakness she happened to be right ubs just raised their price target to 210. to me it seems like a fait accompli, which is french >> it really puts the focus on services, which is -- >> the last quarter they just reported they had their highest growth ever, 30% year over year
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and made up the largest percent of the total, almost 15% this is focused on how they take this platform to the next level. i don't find anything th and today particularly exciting the most interesting thing that happened is the stock did not crater when tim cook stepped off of the stage it used to do that. >> that was for the big introduction. >> no, they would often do hardware stuff or something else so the stock closed above yesterday's close, which i think is pretty important here so it held in pretty decently. >> the questn was do you just play apple and not anything else if i look at the qqqs, apple with the most weighting, qqqs are at fresh highs today it's a big part of it but i think you've made money throughout the sector. these guys are focused on services this company says they'll be 18% to 20% on a caompounded growth rate through 2020.
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this is about in line. i think people get a little carried away with how great services will be for margins when they don't do anything for margins but i think it's a great growth area. our next guest says it points to more gains for apple carter is there. >> let's draw the line several different ways here is basically the year-to-date chart no judgments or an taknotationsy me you approach a high and then after contending with it you start to exceed it it does imply higher i want to focus on this tight, tight action here. what's important about it is that we broke out above this six, seven-point range 184 to 190, 191. if i pull this back a bit
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further, the key is this tight range has been occurring after we initially broke out meaning we had these sort of tops here from which we broke out and then we've held those gains and no're into a new range. so if you were to take the measured move of this range, it projects about $7 higher, $7 range. so you're looking at something along the order of 197 that doesn't get you the 203, 20 4 for the 1 trillion but that's the inference there's more to go now let's talk about this, and this is important. there's always a thought with a big name like this that it's just too good, it's gone too far. here we are having gone from 40 to essentially 200 over the last seven, eight years but let me do this same chart with relative performance on the bottom. this is a very telling thing that's the same chart going back to 2000. applon the bottom. if i draw a line along the relative, what we know is this,
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that apple is just now breaking out to new relative highs. esially the stock has made no progress to the market since 2012 if i were to put it this way as a comparative chart, you see it right here basically to think, and we're all subject to this. maybe i'm late how can you be late if the stock wasn'tormed for the market it's just now setting up for a breakout i like apple here. it's p >> we've got some eaking news on twitter eric. >> the s&p 500 will now be adding twitter to that index replacing monsanto june 7th. that's why twitter stock is up 5% so twitter joining the s&p 500 back to you, melissa. >> of course twitter along with square, the jack dorsey companies, have had stellar runs, stellar runs over the past few weeks here, karen. >> did he say june 7th is that when that would be joining? >> mm-hmm. >> i don't know how they
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normally -- do they trade up in front of that actual index change i don't know that's a pretty big move, 5%. >> it's up 4% in the after hours. >> and building on fresh highs that we hit today on twitter it's a company that's finally giving people reason to believe how they're slowly monetizing a dau base that on some level is not as important as it used to be i'm a shareholder of the stock i stay there. >> i think the most important thing to me is here's a company that went public five years ago and they're supposed to cross $3 billion in sales and so they probably deserve to be in the s&p 500. >> i want to get back to the chart master who's got twitter how does it look a new high in today's session, carter. >> this is something we covered as a group in options action on friday this is a very important setup here's the moment that we're dealing with if we were to pull this back and take a look at the one-year chart, twitter is basically been one of the best performing sort
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of tech names after having basically three years in the desert so this kind of momentum, breaking out from a well defined top, the presumption is plenty more to go. >> we'll hav invite ca back over. come on over, carter we can't not invite you over >> friday you left him hanging >> we had a half an hour in options action afterwards. would you rather twitter or apple right here twitter or apple right here? >> the more aggressive is twitter, but the more important one by far, meaning what it says about the biggest stock on the market is apple. but there's beta in twitter. so if you want to be bullish, you want to play the beta. >> in terms of how the nasdaq looks, app certainly helped the nasdaq hit a record high in today's close. >> we have all these cross currents think this, on friday, before today's open, the median performance of the s&p was down 37 basis points. basically we have this unusual circumstance of high volatility but we're not mang progress.
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key things like industrials and financials struggling and big names in tech doing very well. >> we're talking about the qqq back at those prior highs. apple, microsoft, amazon, facebook and google. is that concentration ag maki you a little concerned about the rest of the market >> what we know is those top five names are the same volumes as the bottom 250 in the s&p and even more. growth- we have a very questionable synchronized global growth in question there are issues with banks in europe and there are currency wars so favoring things like this is what prudent investing is all about. >> of all the things, does the apple chart look the best to you? >> it does, just because of that tight, tight range that's tension when you can't move. and then you start to break out, that usually gives you a follow-through of some magnitude.
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>> carter, thank you thanks for breaking down that twitter chart for us. still ahead, mcdonald's pushing its fast food into the future the ceo speaking to cnbc exclusively today ansomething he said has tim seymour pounding e. in thentime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> i like it a lot. >> investors seem to like facebook a lot, despite a data breach, a fake news problem and possible regulatory crush. and teuru roger mcnamee says it's still best in breed he'll explain why. >> plus -- >> i'm going to kill the bear! >> that's what tom lee is doing. killing the three biggest bitcoin argunts inmegog around the cryptoverse and that's when the cryptoverse and that's when "fast money" returns and online equity trades are only $4.95... i mean you can't have low cost and be full service. it's impossible. it's like having your cake t too.
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welcome back to "fast money. as bitcoin is down nearly 50% this year, the bears are out in full force and their arguments center around three key points google searches dropping 75%
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this year, trading volume is also down and the price stuck below $10,000. but tom lee, the biggest bitcoin bull, says each of those points is wrong so let's do some point-by-point myth busting.tomw let's start off with the google searches why do you think searches being down is irrelevant >> well, google searches aren't a leading indicator for bitcoin. i think it's a coincident indicator. i don't view that as signaling bitcoin will not recover by the end of the year. >> trading volumes why don't they concern you >> trading volumes are down huge from decembeey're down close to 80%, but you have to remember december was the parabolic blow-off for bitcoin and compared to just the second half of last year, bitcoin volumes are up 40% compared to a year ago the same time, january to june, bitcoin
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values are up 900% so i think volumes have been pretty healthy. >> and then let's get to the price. why can't bitcoin break through 10k? >> well, bitcoin has really some technical issues it's kind of a busted chart and i think there was some uncertainty on regulatory overhang but you have to keep in mind, bitcoin makes all of its performance in ten days in any year, so i don't think the fact that it's at its current levels will preventing it from actually rising at the endi of the year. >> do you really see bitcoin underperforming and, therefore, is this really a dplagloss off entire space >> well, i mean i would say actually -- >> do you think the price action is different i'm sorry to cut you off is the price action different for bitcoin than it is for the others >> bitcoin and other tokens will be highly correlated if you want to measure
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underlying demand, icos have raised close to $10 billion year to date. that's double the entire ico race last year there's still a lot of activity and i think institutions still have a lot of interest at the moment i think it's kind of -- you know, we're in purgatory with regard to regulatory clarity i think that's going to -- >> the u.s. just named a crypto czar. >> yes. >> in terms of the overhang, what makes you so confident that this ten-day stat is actually going to hold true this year, a year in which icos are being cracked down on, the s.e.c. has appointed a regulatory czar here things seem to be coming to a fore on the regulation front. >> that's right. so this is an important year and that's -- i think if i was an institution and i was going to make an allocation into crypto, i'd probably want some clarity. so i think those are certainly keeping new dollars from coming into crypto. but crypto and blockchain and
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bitcoin, i don't think bitcoin has risk of being a regulated identi out of existence 's doing fine outside of the u.s. >> there's a lony from,500 and being regulated out of existence for people to lose money on. >> yes, but bitcoin still works great today. it's a great store value i think it works really well in terms of digital transactions, and i think it's a great example of security. in ten years, not a single person has entered a fraudulent entry on the block chain that's trillions of dollars of on-chain transactions and none of them have proven to be fraudulent. >> let me ask you, i read your notes. you had a $6,000 all in cost to mine bitcoin. >> that comes from our data scientist, sam doctor. >> would that create a floor >> we found if you want to think of a floor as the price of bitcoin versus the cost of mining, from the bitcoin bear market of december 2013 to
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january 2015, bitcoin bottomed at its mining cost so price to book went to 1.0 today that mining cost of $6,000 means that should act as the floor bis price now. >> except for with each additional bitcoin mined, the mining costs go up. >> yeah, there's halving and then there's difficulty. so there's a couple of factors driving cost plus if you get more efficient acix that's going to drive the cost. >> if you've a long-term believer in this whole thought of digital assets and you're going to buy into his value argument and buy into sensorship resistance and this amenable ledger and nothing that's happened in the last seven months is going to change that thesis nothing at all if anything, it may embolden you a little bit to see the fluctuations that we had at the end of last year, the crash that we've had this year and the continued investment in the
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projects to upgrade the network but also invest in these projects like these icos which are getting to the point of 10 billion on the year. >> i don't think anyone disputes blockchain technology and why it makes a lot of sense for businesses and sectors to go after it what you're seeing is once the s.e.c. and other player comes in and take out these fraudulent icos, et cetera, what we're learning is a lot of this is speculative frenzy i'm a believer >> that was my big belief last year that it was legal gambl on your iphone, no doubt about it, but it hasn't stopped the investment we are seeing in the vc community, so to me i think at $7,500, up from $1,000 in january of 2017, i think we're still doing okay on the thesis. still ahead, don't look now, but retail stocks are soaring, names like macy's, dillard's and kohl's all up 50fr% om recent
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preserving affordable housing preserves communities. so we are doing their kitchens and their flooring and their lobbies and the grounds. and the beautification of their homes, giving them pride in where they live, will make this a thriving community once again. ♪ welcome back to "fast money. facebook under fire after reports of another privacy scandal involving the social media giant's one billion users. julia boorstin has the latest from l.a. >> reporter: john thune just now saying he plans to ask facebook for additional information about the "new york times" report that user data was shared with 60 device makers, including apple,
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samsung and blackberry facebook gave device makers access to data on users and their friends. facebook is saying the data was simply shared to give users access to their facebook accounts facebook's vp of product partnerships saying, quote, contrary to claims by "the new york times," friends' information, like photos, was only accessible on devices when people made a decision to share their information with those friends. we are not aware of any abuse by these companies. "the new york times" attorney general, barbara underwood, saying news of these partnerships another reminder of unanswered questions regarding facebook's misuse of consumer data following the cambridge analytica scandal. this "new york times" report and the question it raises about whether facebook violated its commitment to protect user privacy again raises the threat of regulation and it comes amid another question and criticism from "the new york times."
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a report that facebook hosted political ads masquerading as news stories in early april. stories aimed to influence the california congressional primary election facebook responding to thiby saying since then it's rolled out a number of changes requiring issue and political ads to be labeled, and advertisers to be authorized they didn't start enforcing those changes until late may back over to you. >> thank you, julia. this is just the latest scandal to hit facebook but the stock has remained basically untouched. if anything, it seems like the company has weathered the perfect storm of events. despite incessant fake news allegations and the possibility of bigger crackdowns frothe eu, the stock is up 27% from its 2018 lows. our next guest believes while an even bigger storm is coming from social media companies, that facebook could in fact ride out the dark clouds. roger mcnamee is the co-founder of elevation partners and he joins us now it's always great to speak with
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you. >> it's great to be on how are you? >> at one point we talked about facebook and you didn't like what was going on. you thought this was going to be a problem for the stock but you still held on to shares. where is facebook in this whole data privacy issue >> so i think that their explanation today does not hold water for a couple of very simple reasons the most important of which is facebook is really good at complying with the letter of regulations while ignoring the substance. in this particular case, the reason that matters is because 60 hardware companies had access to essentially all facebook data, and facebook did nothing to check what they did with the data once they received it so it is absolutely true that facebook's terms of service would have prohibited them from doing anything with that data except to deliver facebook facebook was not in a position to monitor them after the fact and so this is a huge data privacy issue. perhaps just as importantly for
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facebook, it appears that they misled congress when asked questions about whether there were other things like this. and so i think that this is, if you will, part of a cultural problem that's going to be wit e regulation or until facebook radically alters its behavior. >> i hear what you're saying, roger, in terms of what the company faces itself but do you think that maybe the worst is behind the stock? >> well, i think the stock has actually pretended as though nothing has happened yet and that's a completely reasonable thing for investors to do, because the risk of regulation in the united states is very low in the near term and the regulations in europe, the global data protection regulation, which just went into effect, is something that facebook and google are going to manipulate and do their best to prevent from having any impact on their business.
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so i think investors have made a reasonable call, but i think it would be wrong to assume that just because regulation hasn't happened yet that it won't happen because the political pressure is getting greater and greater. let's face we're trusting facebook and google and twitter with our midterm elections this year we haven't regulated them. so if something goes wrong, you know, there will be nowhere for them to hide. >> hey, roger, it's dan. this screen time app that was released today by apple, their as py interesting, the first app that they had up on the big screen was instagram could this be a perfect storm, when you take all those other issues with regulatory coming down the pike and the fact we have this other social issue about screen addiction facebook owns two or three of the most used apps is this going to be a big story in 2019 when all of these trends converge on companies like facebook >> i think this is the question that we all face these companies have become
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immensely successful through behavior modification of billions of people and we have to ask the question, should there be any limits on the ability to manipulate what people think and what they if the answer is these stocks are going to the moon, because they do it better than anybody in history if the world decides that it's uncomfortable with behavior modification, then, you know, there's going to be a day of reckoning. >> last quick question, roger. in just the past 15 or 20 minutes or so, we learned that twitter will be added to the s&p 500 on june 7th so we're going to stay in the social sector but play would you rather. would you rather right now, facebook or twitter? >> facebook. >> facebook still. >> i think going to the s&p 500 will give them a bounce, right, but facebook's business is just a lot better than twitter's business and the stock valuations do not give enough of an advantage to twitter to offset the better position at facebook. >> roger, always a pleasure,
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thank you. >> thanks so much for having me on take care. >> roger mcnamee still ahead, the retail rally picking up steam as a number of stocks surge from their recent lows. the traders will tell you who they're shopping and who they're dropping. plus mcdonald's sitting in correction territory but the company just did something that makes the stock a major buy. he'll tell us what that is right after ak ♪ (daniel jacob) for every hour that you're idling in your car, you're sending about half a gallon of gasoline up in the air. that amounts to about 10 pounds of carbon dioxide every week (malo hutson) growth is good, but when it starts impacting our quality of air and quality of life, that's a problem. so forward-thinking cities like sacramento are investing in streets that are smarter and greener. the solution was right under our feet. asphalt. to be more precise, intelligent asphalt.
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welcome back to "fast money. call it the retail resurgence. surging 52% from its low check out macy's up nearly 50% in 2018 hitting a multi-year high after an upgrade. but the rally started to get gock in november what we are calling the black friday bottom. macy's up more than 70%, dillard's and kohl's up more than 50% and nordstrom up around 20% since then given all these crazy moves, we thought it was the perfect time to play a brand new game one that we are calling -- >> shop it or drop it! >> wow it's like "the price is right" sort of. >> so sht means you buy it, drop it means you're dropping it all right. kicking off with macy's, shop it or drop it, tim. >> i'm shopping it, which means i'm not going to drop it but i do think that the best days for this run at macy's is over, even though i think that
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the improving store kaumcomps a one and done but the comps get very tough upgrading it now in this cycle, i find that amazing. >> would you drop it or shop that >> i'd drop all of them. i got ahead of -- i'm also doing -- >> now we know -- >> i just don't think department stores need to exist, all these different brands macy's is probably one of the e's anotheone, karen kohl's. >> sadly drop it when we talked about it, the stock reacted so poorly to what weren't bad earnings however, that was 15% ago. so maybe the name of the game should be buy it at multi-year highs, yes or no. >> changing the game. >> sadly, i wouldn't buy it up here. >> it's shocking for karen of all people to try to change the game mid-game. >> she's such a well behaved young lady. >> all right, dan. >> drop it. >> you don't know what i'm going to say
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dillard's, shop it or drop it. >> most of our viewers have never heard of dillard's before. they're going to have $6 million in sales, they're not growing. trades at 15 times the balance sheet is fine but dillard's doesn't need to exist. >>do you mean it doesn't ed to exist? >> that makes no sense to me first of allat we're seeing in the transient consumer, the discretionary purchases are actually working so it's the lower end consumer staples that most of that doesn't need to exist. >> is that behavior changing a lot? so if these guys don't have a good omni-channel strategy then the physical store doesn't need to exist, the brand doesn't need to exist i think they'll be partnered up with an online strategy an not running their own omni-channel strategies amazon has demonstrated why having this sort of scale makes sense. >> in discretionary and in the upper demographic -- >> is the upper demographic dillard's? >> it's a place where you're going in there -- it's not
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low -- >> aren't you talking more brands >> this is not t.j. maxx, this is a different customer. >> we're going to a different department store guy, drop it or shop it. >> what does it mean again shop it, shop it, shop it. >> shop it you buy it, drop it you don't. >> really? the valuation is a little ridiculous and you're right. but i thought it was an overreaction in the quarter, the stock traded down 7% two and a half, three weeks ago, the stock has rebounded. comps are disappointing but their online business is really stng to kick in. inventories were down almost 2% in my opinion with that sales groweans margins get better next quarter so i think the stock goes higher, so shop it. >> well done well done all. one thing that might be helping the consumer and the retailers, falling oil. crude getting crushed today, now down 7% in the past month. one trader just made a million dollar bet on the rebound ahead.
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dan, what did you see? >> it's interesting that it's had a bad month but a great few months here. today when the etf was trading 1327, call volume picked up. there was one large trade that caught my eye. there was a buyer of the october 14-16 call spread 40,000 times paying 40 cents for that. coming up, mcdonald's going high tech. the company souping up its dores with self-serve kiosks. sooes the tech bet make the stock a buy? we have clues straight ahead (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a ooh.h. math. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they
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we've undertaken a dramatic program here in the u.s. we're slightly more advanced in some of our international markets, uk, canada, australia, fully rolled out france almost and germany is halfway. the u.s. is a little behind that so we're actually going to be transforming 1,000 restaurants per quarter. >> that was mcdonald's ceo steve easterbrook sitting h ca carl quintanilla earlier today mcdonald's will update with self-serve kiosks and mobile ordering capabilities. shares down 7% for the year but as the company doubles down on
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tech, how should investors value the stock? tim is at the plasma to break it down. >> bottom line, do you want to ve up to these other big comps? steve easterbrook just talked aboukiosks we know what they're doing with fresh beef, the dollar menu, international is booming if you want to grow into that valuation that these guys have, look at that look at that for domino's and that's an international play chipotle, we know it's expensive now but bottom line is a lot of this is marketing, a lot is a technology view. let's go to the chart real quic i think mcdonald's does grow into a fuller valuation. i think everything they're talking about about this experience of the future means that this stock, which basically had this re-rating period went right up and has been stagnating here if you believe the breakout comes, that comes when you get this follow-through from ordering online, fresh beef, dollar menu, and if these other
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companies de companies deserve it, this global brand probably gets there first. >> it's really hard to get a real multiple for a stock. they have done an extraordinary job but how are yoconfident getting that new multiple. >> part of this is the sector s gotten -- you can argue domino's because of what's going on internationally and because of the growth they see in the core stores is what's giving them that multiple if you look at the international comps for mcdonald's up almost 8% in that first quarter, i think they're doing it but again, look at the demographic they're going after. they're going after millenials and after folks that have a higher ticket. if you look at the kiosk, they're two times, so their per tickets are going higher and i think the stores will be more efficient so i think they deserve a bigger multiple. >> you like mcdonald's, guy? >> i do. the sell-off from february to december is overdone i think it deserves a higher multiple as m id otn.tisa > next, final trades.
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time for the final trade tim. >> twitter, i think this breakout is one you buy. if you're boiing facebook, you're buying twitter. >> karen. >> do you remember when the ten-year was over 3? that was last wednesday. i think with that growing economy, tbt is the trade. >> happy birthday to a very special "fast money" fan, my mom. and i think you sell facebook here. >> i thought you were going to say happy birthday max it was his birthday yesterday. >> that's what i was going to
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say. we're not onv on sunday so max meyers -- you messed it up. >> sorry how was i supposed to know i'm melissa lee. see you back hering. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. on a great day for the bulls, where the dow

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