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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  August 29, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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good morning, it's 8:00 a.m. at facebook in mellow park, and 11:00 in new york. "squawk alley" is live
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♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk alley." morgan and jon have the morning off. sara will stick with us, as we await trade deadlines in a few moments. also nyu's scold galloway is here, as well as author of "zuck'd. and the president ramping up his criticism of google after tweeting that the results are
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rigged against him. >> they better be careful. you can't do that to people. we have literally thousands of complaints coming in you can't do that. google, twitter, facebook, they're treading on troubled territory. it's not fair to large portion of the population. that comes ahead of congressional testimony from executives from all three companies on censorship and election meddling next week. scott, i'm curious to know what you thought of the president's comments and if the regular torrie frameworks is -- >> treading on troubled territory? does anybody no he what that means? >> that's my question. >> i think in a strange way the president's attack inokay late them from regulation i think they come across as ham-handed at the end of the day they rally the left, who likely could have been -- this could have been a
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bipartisan efforts there's reasons to worry, but similar to the attack on amazon, hi attacks lack reason, data or grammar, which weaken the argument, only make -- google is responding the way amazon did, with data and measured in a reasonable way big tech is acting presidential. the other is president he's literally inokay lating big tech against regulation. >> do you disagree that some of the search terms give you an unfair -- >> they don't lean left, they don't lean left. they lean down, whatever gets more clicks, more engagement, mower earnings, more shareholder value. their bias is against labor costs and controversy. >> roger, i wonder if there's a potential distinction to be made
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between what google does in search and what facebook and twitter are up to. one of the reasons this was top of mind is the banning of certain people from other platforms, so you have this judgment call situation based on some standards that are specific to each company of who can and who can't participate. that to me is different from the google algorithm that is in fact trying to get to the most relevant result. >> that's a really important point. google's strategy, at scott said, is to obviously get you answers quickly and sell a lot of ads against those answers i think there are real issues with the way google runs its search engine. one of the things i find confusing is folks in the republican party would look as
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something like alex jones as something they need to defend, somebody in the business of spreading conspiracy theories. to me that's not -- that's not journalism, what jones is doing. so i think that the battle -- i'm with scott on this issue, in that this is an irresponsible attack which i think is just designed to change the subject if i were the industry, i would feel good about being attacked this way, because at the end of the day, you know, the industry's situation is complicated. by making it more complicated, they do lower the probability of successful regulation. >> roger, how would you expect dorsey, sandberg, not the ceo of google next week, but their representatives to frame the argument next week. >> i think google will get creamed next week, because they're not sending the right senior person. i suspect they'll be cut up a bit in absentia.
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but i believe the focus of this thing is going to be on lack of transparency, that i think for all intents and purposes the business plan of these companies is now fair game in washington, d.c. justifiably so and they tried to do that without accepting any of the normal responsibilities that come with it i think congress has had enough of that. i'm not exactly sure how this is going to turn out from a rae la torrie point of view i think the goal of regulation is to always change incentives it's a blunt instrument, not something you do with precision. i suspect as a consequence there will be a lot of back and forth. we probably will get privacy right before other things right, because it's easier to people to understand google, facebook and twitter has
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done stuff that congress needs to regulate. they need to protect the public interest, and these guys have been on the wrong side of that >> guys, i'll move on to some of the relates strength we're seeing nasdaq had another record high, up eight of nine, index crossing the 8,000 mark for the first time this week where do you see valuations right now? stage reflecting a robust secular growth in a business where people have long runways, long visibility? >> i think that's exactly correct, carl. i look at this we've had an upward revision from last quarter, and there is obviously tremendous strength today. from a market's point of view, the question it has to face is, when does it get nervous about the changes going on in global
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change there's no sector with -- to changes in our relationships with major trading partners like china, canada and mexico so i look at this, and the most positive thing i see, carl, is that the speculation in this cycle is not in equities the speculation than in crypto as a consequence it's real market players doing all of this move, you know, and these are smart people with real money if they're not worried about inflation because of trade problems, if they're not worried, then stocks will keep going up you know, if you own them, that's really good news, but at some point we're going to have to worry, but we're making change in the global economy we have no idea how they will turn out. >> scott, it's interesting how many different paths you can take to decide that the very large tech company is the most dominant platform companies
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deserve your investment. if you want to look at quality companies, they come up. if you want to look at defensive companies not so exposed to the economy, they come up, and if you believe in this deflationary tech future that we're all marching towards, they're there. i wonder what sense of inevitability are, and what the vulnerabilities are, perhaps >> it seems like the narrative is focused on are these firms overvalued the -- you can buy facebook for a small premium to p & g or coca-cola and foib is supposed to grow 30%. the more meaningful narrative is are we comfortable with one company, amazon hitting a trillion dollars, adding more market cap than the rest of
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retail, game gamifying a trend, or three of ten work for the most expensive company in the world are on food stamps no one is going to pike you -- if you didn't own the fang of the last five years, you have underperformed so the best way, expensive but bad. everyone's going to vanguard who does buy the fang, one by one we are going think industries and literally sucking the oxygen out. >> facebook's participation has been pitiful relative to the others why is that? >> obviously they've been the boogieman for this entire year,
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as the politics of 2016 i think investors initially hoped were a one-off. it's pretty obvious those issues will be persistent in the mid terms. and the changes that they are making, and by the way, i do think they're making some, the move in mahan bar to ban the military off, was a very brave thing for them they're taking the mature markets, north america and europe, and essential shrinking participation, and that's got to be a bad thing i think the market's legitimately spooked about that, because it doesn't yet know how big instagram is going to be it doesn't know if facebook will turn on monetization for marketplace or messenger i'm with scott, these stocks are relatively cheap, if you don't think the global trade thing will be a problem, these are the
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stocks >> facebook is flat this year, and it's almost because they decided to under-earn, right they basically said, we have to spend more, so they almost had to step in the way of their own effortless growth. >> i do think that will be the trend for all these guys. >> they're going to have to spent more money the days being able to freeload by not having any security, not having any containment strategy for emotional contagion, those games have to be behind them, otherwise europe is just going to carve them up. what is the most powerful plattism carl, carl, and roger. most powerful brand or platform? any organization most momentum, most accretive value hands down right now. >> i was going to say google.
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>> roger, what do you think? >> i would say apple or amazon >> apple. >> world cup, i was fortunate to go to the final, 20,000 are diehard soccer fans. the other 60,000sh the most wealthy in the world it's not about you had wiser, not adidas, everyone under the age of 40 is holding one thing instagram. it's the most powerful in the world right now. it's a juggernaut. we're all talking about facebook its growth is flatlining, instagram is about to become what conside nast. it's not being weaponized. >> be careful. instagram will be a target of a lot of manipulation in the mid terms, because they're going to
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try to suppress the vote of millennial that's the place to do it. >> it's an interesting thought. >> is that in the book, roger? >> we'll have to wait and see, won't we >> go the to wait and see. >> don't give too much away. fascinating discussion, guys, thanks as always scott and roger. coming up. apple hitting another all-time high as the september event and perhaps new i phones loom on the horizon. two analysts join us on apple, is splitting this country. we have parents who are trying to get their kids off of too much social media and computers, and then we have parents who would only hope their children have access. middle school is a really key transition point, right. the stakes start changing. students begin to really start thinking about their futures. what i like about verizon's approach is that it's not limited to just giving kids new tools,
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it's really about empowering educators to teach in different ways, and exposing kids to more active forms of learning. giving technology is not a total solution. teaching technology, now that is.
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shares of apple trading at all-time highs as investors await the september event, as apple is expected to introduce new iphones. brian, i know you love the stock, have for a long time. trillion dollar market cap i wonder if you have to defend against the pot that it just seems to easy and inevitable buffett is buying, the company is buying back stock now it's a services company. where are we in terms of the sentiment positioning piece of this investment? >> think about the conversation you just had apple is the shining city on the hill they really are. they don't have privacy issues, stock is really cheap, still growing nicely, and their market share is still very, very low. so there's tremendous opportunity for expansion. i think investors that don't
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want to chase some of necessary internet players that have gone up, apple is a great opportunity right here still. >> and yet we kind of want the story to evolve past what the next generation will look like, and there's still suspension to get built, and apple presends there is not an event. do we have to graduate past that appoint and say people are buying things difficultly? >> i still believe you know, the iphone while it's over 60% of the revenue, services will be a $50 billion business by fiscal 20 think about what they can do in auto, in a.r., v.r., the connected home
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so very early the world is going digit and this is a platform that people love and actually trust. >> we're going to be hearing from buffett tomorrow with becky quick during this hour i wonder, what could he possibly say about his aspirations to earn more? limitations? or just his general view of what the company is up to. >> the first big tech investment was apple, and i think what he sees here is what he's enjoyed along, investing in some of the sugar water companies. he sees a moat, a company that can plant seeds for the future that's what apple is about i think at this valuation, he should be buying more. ultimately when this ends and we see a liftoff in a massive -- the valuation will be much higher. >> are you a fan of this
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digitimes report that shipments will have more tailwind than in prior cycles this year >> it doesn't hurt to have news like that, but again, this event -- it should be september 12th they haven't formally announced it, but it should be i view these as planet apple events you get a lot of detail about the ecosystem. you'll have i pads, macs, and a lot of detail around ar. so more about planet apple, and less about iphone. >> i know you keep focusing on the cash position. obviously they're getting more aggressive on the pipeback front. is that still a piece you have to have an asterisk on it. >> yeah. it's going down slowly, and net neutral, net cash neutral is their goal so, you know, again another nice
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tailwind for investors, for sure. >> all right ryan, thanks very much. >> thanks. as we mentioned, tomorrow during this time, 11:00 a.m. eastern time, warren buffett with becky quick, as he normally attacks before the auction becky with buffett tomorrow. dow continues to add the gains of 57. p 2910 back in a minute
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the u.s. attorney's office and s.e.c. announcing new charge in an insider's case >> the lead targets is michael contend ricks, a starter on the defensive line, for the eagles he's now a member of the cleveland browns together with a former harvard graduate who worked at goldman
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sachs four years ago, the two were participating in insider trading based on some of the mergers and acquisitions that the goldman analyst had a heads-up on. he was charged with criminal information, that usually means a guilty plea is forth coming as is published by kendrick's attorney in "the philadelphia inquirer." back to you. >> wow thanks, eric we're getting european close in about five minutes. seema, how is europe going to close today? >> carl, it's basically a mixed picture across the board spain and portugal is lower, impressed by my geography? you should be. it's trade negotiation that's the big topic of discussion, between the united states, canada and mexico, and what it could mean for the europe. the pound soaring to a
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three-week high on upbeat comments from the european union negotiator, saying the bloc was prepared to offer a close relationship after it exits. he said it could include economic as well as foreign and security policy ties the pound up about 1%. the surge is pushing the ftse 100. the lira in focus is a, extending its slump. two reasons here -- first a key measure of turkey's economic confidence dropping to its lowest level in nearly a decade. the second reason, the central bank, fails to bolster investor sentiment. finally in a bid to boost economic ties, german chance lore merkel taking a terrorist
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to nigeria, ghana and senegal -- taking a trip to nigh year gentleman, -- nigeria, ghana and senegal clearly an area that's getting a lot of attention. >> thank you, seema. now to sue herera. >> don mcgahn will leave his position this fall president trump making the announcement this morning. adding he hopes the change will take place after the appointment of bret cavanaugh.
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it happened as the worker wes seven floors up, preparing to pour concrete landslide triggered by heavy rains caused major disruptions the impact the highway is the lifeline of kashmir, and it connects the region to the rest of india it's one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. john mccain will lie in state today, so the public can pay their respects the late senator would have celebrated his 82nd birthday today. you are up to day. that's the news update this hour back downtown to "squawk alley." when we come back, a lot more on the president's warning to big tech, as we watch facebook, twitter and google head to capitol hill next week head to capitol hill next week the doaccident forgiveness,ntssh
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amazon and google having the price targets raised as tech continues the recent surge up to courtney reagan, as the index looks for the fourth positive session in a row. >> kind of steady as she goes here at the nasdaq, continuing to march higher continuing to lead the major indices today it's holding above that 8,000
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mark pretty steadily after it hit it or crossed it for the first time on monday we're having the best august in 18 years at the nasdaq you mentioned amazon and alphabet let's start with amazon. that is responsible for the biggest point gain here at the nasdaq for the nasdaq 100. they got a price target upgrade from morgan stanley at amazon. a price target of 2500 from 1850 that's now the highest priced target on the street if it hits 2500, that means amazon would be worth 1.2 trillion dollars morgan stanley likes the company's rapid growing businesses by also they didn't stop there they're raising their price target on alphabet as well as waymo that's a 25% up side, again also the highest target on the street
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the previous target for morgan stanley had been 1325. morgan stanley believes the waymo unit hasn't been fully baked into the price we follow apple closely. it's trading at all-all-time intraday high. as the nasdaq clicks to 8100 we have bob pisani here on the desk obviously kind of this sense of path of least resistance we are drifting higher the stock market got a lift when the dollar started to sag. it's been that dynamic for a while. >> what's amazing on a slow august week, trade is the gift that keeps on giving for all of us it's remarkable. we had the canadians foreign minister making generally optimistic comments, leaving, coming back again, that was kind of fun to watch, and the market
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lifted quietly it's not a huge rally, but we're rallying here again. we're into report territory. i attribute this to optimism on the trade fund so all of this week, what was flattish trading in europe as well as in asia, the incremental mover has been the trade stocks. so china internet stocks, copper miners, material stocks that have been moving emerging markets have been strong global autos have been up. chinese auto stocks up 10% european auto stocks up 4% ford, gm up about 4% this was at the open these are even better now. so it's clear the trade is the mover, marginal mover for the markets overall. the other thing that i think is interesting, as we've hit new
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highs, we've gotten some numbers out of the major retime furnish retirement funds, and generally the numbers are really good. the general retirement funds, the 401(k)s and iras have been doing well and that impresses me. here's the problem that i have with all of this if you look at the average retires, it looks like they have a lot of money, this is the average in a vanguard account, now that's pretty good, that seems like a lot of money, but you and i both now the super savers drags, the medians is only $64,000 these numbers are up year over year i don't want to pooh-pooh them, bud $64,000 on a median for a retiree that's out there is not a lot of money this is the way it's been for a long time. we don't save enough and bev to figure out ways to make it
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easier for people to sock away more money we know social security will not be increasing the numbers and we know what's going on with, only one in three collect a pension. >> year piece on this was so good, given what life expectancy is, but you also point out that people might often have more than one. >> but that's a distinct minority i give everybody a doubt on one in three americans collect a pension. the average pension is about $10,000 is a year. just do the math here. the average social security is 15, 16,000 a year, about 1300 a month, so 25, let's do 16,000, average pension, assume you collect a pension, 10,000, what do you have if you have 64,000, and you're going to live another 20 years 3,000 a year to pull out 4,000?
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after it all up. average guy in good shape can collect about 28,000 a year. that's not bad if you've got your house paid off and living in a low-rent part of the world, but that's not a lot for a lot of people, certainly not in the northeast. >> 10% of the u.s. population is over 65 thousand i think, it's going up >> one final thing that's disturbing 30% of the people who could participate in their retirement funds do not do so many of them still do not go to the maximum contribution, so essential it's behavioral economics. a lot of people just leave a lot of money on the table, and that could go a -- if we could get more people involved in their programs, particularly requirement enrollment programs, the savings rate would go up as we said a couple times this morning, the president ramping up his pressure on big tech, this time it's google, and
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the company's curation news results. the president warning be careful in what he's alleged are rigged results and internal bias. joining us is walter isaacson, and of course the former cnn chairman and ceo walter, good to see you again. good morning >> good morning, carl. how are you? >> not bad i want your take a how the president framed this in person yesterday and how the think the conversation may or may not move forward with dorsey and sandberg on the hill next week? >> it's a very complex conversation at one extreme you have russians or iranians putting in real fake news, trying to destroy our system certainly much a google and facebook to try to guard against that then you have the next layer, which is the strange paranoid sites like alex jones, which i don't know why conservatives would defend
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he's not particularly conservative he believes people in mass shootings and fake -- you want to stop that what happens is when they decide to incent responsible news, and people's definition of "responsible" is different however, i just searched trump on google news first thing that pops up is fox news, then cnbc, cnn, a few others it tends to skew to the bigger outlets, because google is an algorithm. it's not some political organization the algorithm says here's where most people are pointing to these days, and we have gathered that up. so it's complicated, and you don't want to regulate it, but you have to be careful there's not bias creeping in. >> walter, a lot of the discussion that came out this, first of all, yes, the president likes to portray himself as a victim of the mass of the media,
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but on the other hand, you have to follow it along and say, well, what could potentially be done in terms of looking at the google algorithm it would seem that you would have to say google has as much as massive market power they're misusing it in some way, and by extension you can see the government should have some say. do you think people at google, at the other companies, are genuinely having to game this out or waiting it for pass. >> wrong up have legislation on this anytime soon, but as carl knows, a this show we have often debated whether or not companies like google or facebook, just by getting so big have a problem. for example, when google is able to ease out other people who are doing restaurant rankings or
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travel sites, because google results pops up its own and it's better for the consumer. people say it's not anticompetitive, but it allows google to grow likewise when facebook does that or buys instagram. i think you get a problem when a facebook or a google becomes so big and so dominant it does control what we do for example, when i was at cnn, if people didn't like cnn, you saw the growth of fox news for people who thought cnn was too far to the left, you saw the growth of msnbc when people thought cnn was too centrist or whatever anyway, that gave competition. it's impossible right now to see competition for google news search, or for that matter for facebook, but i think in the long run, we have to have policies that discourage hugeness and promote
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competition. and that will be the long-term solution for this problem. if people don't like google searches, they can find an alternative search engine. >> yeah, they're out there, or at least they were, but certainly not getting enough oxygen with google in the room walter, i'm curious to know what you think of facebook's actions in myanmar, banning that military chief, and some of the accounts that twitter continues to delete. how do they use that as an argument when account about policing content next week >> that's where it gets to be difficult. i like what they have done in myanmar. that's my own instinct we don't like bad, repressive, cruel dictatorships controlling the news but once you go down that path, where are you going to draw the line are you going to stop sites in the united states that you might feel are too repressive?
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anti-semitic, hateful? yeah, you do try to do that. all of life, all decisions like this are about where you draw lines. it's become more difficult in this day and age to do it. i think people like facebook and twitter should take responsibility for what's on their plate form therefore, i do think they should ban people that are hateful or cause deep problems to our system of government. however, i think that's -- you got to tread carefully there that's something the president said. >> we're watching them try to ride that balance in these early days even is heart to watch sometimes. walter, we'll see what happening -- >> but we should give them some credit, because they're going to get slammed next week. this is a difficult issue. so when they try we should say, well, at least they're trying to figure this out. >> well said we'll see what happens next week i hope to talk to you next week,
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if not before. thanks, walter isaacson. a surprising summer for airline stocks we'll tell you more when we come back welcome to the place...
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here is what's coming up on "halftime report" at the top of the hour we're debating the runaway, how long the best trade of the past several years can keep going. another stock that hit another high is it time to take profits or double down? double the najarians, that means a super-sized dose of unusual activity that's at noon michael, we'll see you in about ten minutes or so. rick santelli has the santelli exchange. >> hi, mike. back in the day when brick and mortga mortar was all the rage. the department stores used to have a policy, if something was mislabeled, saying you want to buy a pair of jeans for $20, brut for some reason they were labeled $10. you paid $10 that was their policy.
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i think some of that can be applied to trying to straighten out all of these issues with the yield curve. if there's distortions, no matter where they are on the yield curve, it matters, but it only matters as the price is the price, the yield is the yield. if you're doing business, whatever the yield curve portrays as valuations for the cost of money in the amount of interest that gets paid or charged, it is what it is. i had jim bianco on today, he was showing the following chart. this chart shows three-month money to ten-year, and two-month to ten year, and as history would dictate. three months to ten year was the curve used for research that portrayed inversion as a precursor to a soft economy, hence recession. every time the three month to tens inverted or vice versa, twos to ten, they both inverted.
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so the real issue isn't necessarily what part of the curve you're focusing it on, it's what's behind the numbers many say the term structure is distorted because of fed true but in the end i'm not sure if it's going to matter as jim brought out many times in history where we've had -- many times it was the antagonist and we do need to pay teams. finally, when it comes to balance sheet reduction versus interest rate increases, the problems that were -- is that still a problem now? if the answer is no, balance sheet reduction might be something to reconsider as a better monetary tool to remove stimulus carl, back to you. rick, thank you. rick san telei, we are going to take a short break, but in the
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lighthouser and i have agreed that she and i will meet at 5 a:00 today again to review the work that officials have been doing. it was a good conversation probably worth pointing out as ambassador has, that we have at the ministerial and officials level, very closely engaged and working on all these issues for more than a year we've been in good contact throughout the summer. and you know, we are working extremely hard, extremely intensely and we continue to be optimistic about the progress
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that we can make this week [speaking foreign language >> canada's foreign minister talking about her discussions with the ustr today in both english and french good conversation, she says, but again as she did a few hours, pointing out progress had been made throughout the course of the summer good conversations have been made when she says wee working extremely hard, it's hard to take that. >> i believe they're trying to push back against this idea that canada has been brought in at the last moment with a take it or leave it sigs they're aware of the way things have gone. and now, you have this line of thinking that most of the things the u.s. would agree to would be okay with canada and mexico. it seems as if cautiously optimistic for something >> we've been talking about the action today obviously on light vol jumeumevt
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29, 12 is a nice jump from what we were eyeing yesterday >> it would be surprising to me if we sat there on the round number around 10:00, u.s. lar dollar index went negative. there's room to stretch the rally a little more before people get overbullish and technicals start to work against you. >> we're watching freeland to see if she takes q&a in english. we'll bring that to you. phil lebeau has extremely noted consequences either way for automakers both in the short and long-term. >> yeah, definitely, carl. especially when you look at the fact that from the united states perspective, the two biggest importers or the two countries we get most vehicles from outside of the united states guys, back to you. >> all right i think we're getting her in english. >> we have agreed that the best way to make progress is not to
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be negotiating in public on specific issues. so we have had a good meeting yesterday. we had another good meeting today. officials are engaged now. very intense bly, there is a big team that is going at it it's important to underscore that for canada, this is a negotiation we've been doing for more than a year the issues are extremely familiar to us and we have been extremely involved in shaping the approaches on a lot of the issues and we have been in touch with the negotiation over the summer, but it is very, very intense work i continue to be encouraged by
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the good conversations we're having and the progress that we're making when it comes to mexico, we had a good conversation with three mexican officials who came to our embassy last night and that was very productive. we're now need to have some good, deep conversations with our u.s. partners and that's what we're doing >> do you see this as the beginning of the end of the negotiation process? >> you're tempting me to say something churchillian is it the end of the beginning, the beginning of the end look, let me just say a lot has been accomplished. i've spoken already about rules,
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origin and the labor chapter and the progress which canada was very much a part of. in creating better conditions. for working people in canada and also in the united states and high wage countries, our workers have been concerned for a long time it was one of our election issues, about the ways in which trade agreements can harm blue collar workers in high wage countries. there are some important things that we believe we have accomplished together with the united states and thanks to some significant compromises, mexico was prepared to make to support canadian workers, that is is a really important step for us. and it has set the stage for very intensive conversations and negotiations that we're going to have >> how many so far
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>> when it comes to specific issues, we have a huge amount of work to do this week at the ministerial level and officials are really grinding through extremely intensively. >> thank you, minister >> can you comment on the -- >> canada's foreign minister talking to the press outside the u.s. trade rep's office. being very surgical in her remarks. other than saying meeting at 5:00 today with essentially 48 hours before this self-imposed deadline to renegotiate takes place. eamon javers, phil lebeau helping us make sense of this. clearly not going to do this in public, eamon. >> that's right. though i was list b bing to some of the language selection there.
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it's optimistic. she said she's extremely familiar and the canadians are extremely familiar with the issues being negotiated. she said they're working extremely hard and she said it's extremely intensive. so a lot of extreme language, but that's the sign the general public is going to take away from this, signalling they could be on the way to a deal as early as that friday deadline, but the devil is in the details in these things we'll see how it plays out you've got to wonder what the political popularity or unpopularity of president trump in canada is and how that plays into the domestic political c consumption of this deal is this a deal he can sign on to giveren his personal feed with the united states? the president's called him dishonest and other insults. so can they patch that over even as they negotiate some of these high level details >> yeah. watching some of


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