tv Squawk on the Street CNBC September 21, 2018 9:00am-11:00am EDT
the room that she was in issuing the statement in has no power. we'll pick it up on "squawk on the street," they'll let you know what happens. have a great weekend see you next week. good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. big friday on tab. huge s&p rebalance as much as fang and media going into a new sector index dow and futures up 81. europe wrapping up nearly 2% gains for the week and 10-yr close to 308 stocks continue this rally, futures pointing to new highs at
the open >> we'll go to decisions, fox disney and comcast set to settle that $36 billion and sky apple is helping to drive to a new highs. looking to chase more history. it was the dow's 12th record close of the year. s&p is 19. oil is highest since today since july copper, 6th weeks highs. >> the euro being strong really helps a lot of the companies i think that oil going up believe it or not is regarded being positive and people feel the economy is morre robust
there is a believe that china stimulus is in full force, pretty much going up and up. the banks, what can i say? the same time long-term rates go up and there is a good story to tell which i hope jaime dimon when i talk to him on sunday >> all of this is in the face of many would call trade war with china or the spring. going back when we are wondering how far tensions would go or hod bad things would get many thought the market would not be particular friendly place. that ended up not to be the case at all >> i was doing some work on c caterpillar yesterday. you just figure okay, the
penalty box, they're out it is like a 10-minute major and they're done i think what's happening is people are saying boeing and another one that's crucial to this rally and almost at its highs. boeing got a lot of orders and maybe we are over doing how important china is i took a lot of blow back yesterday when i said consumers may not be hurt nearly as bad as people think that's because not just the tariffs are not good for consumers but we ought to start recognizing that retailers are going to eat something if you take a look at retailers and how poorly they are trade yesterday. >> you have been consistent on that and treuters are out of the story that walmart wrote a letter to ustr saying new tariffs on goods like bicycles you got a piece on proctor and the degree they're going to be under pressure on some of these things >> they'll have to eat some.
i keep oncoming back to death star not that the president sought through the internet channels but amazon is going to keep margins slow i think it is a bump i don't think it will last forever. many of the company has the ability to sort elsewhere. i think this is probably way too cheap with pvh they can switch in china they can't switch instant. >> or for the same price, maybe? >> yes you have to take a hit consumers will take a hit but at the same time, consumers, what are we going to do when you have the jobless claims yesterday is the consumers not more in shape. we speak to some of these banks, the balance sheet of the consumers of the best they ever seen when i read a lot of the articles, it really hurt consumers. consumers have no problem
getting a job and consumers go t a good balance sheet there is an average family of $1,600 cut and taxes well, this is the time i think the president is reacting to the fact that it is the time that's one of the reasons. >> although rates on a real bases are not going to the moon, jim. barely positive. >> totally true. when you hire this many people, what happens when you hire these people ira and 401-k. money into the snps, it matters. >> it does >> we don't know how many of these jobs come along with the package. more people can save than they have >> it is a good thing and there is no doubt. >> to your point, is it going away in the war of trade against china, it is the best time to do it and it does not appears to be any led up trump's comment reflects of what he believes he got a lot of
leverage here. we still wonder whether or not and when we are going to start to see unintended consequences >> well, 2019. i think there is such a belief by many managing now holy cow, these averages are going up i got into fang. i got into the banks it is not like you go in there and buy some bank of america you are paying too much. >> did you buy wells >> yes, absolutely >> i would buy wells i think wells is in -- when i saw the cuts, one of the they thinks i have been waiting for is the expense cuts. franchise are intact it is not like they are exactly hurting for business lending is pretty good the only in the lending armor is consumers are fortunate. about 25% of these houses are being bought for cash, really negative, negative housing read
through today. morgan stanley, just a terrible one. >> we got the existing numbers yesterday. >> they're not good. you would think you have china and housing. you have auto and all bad. who would have thought that you can have an average. >> it is still early >> housing has a long lead time. pretty consistently a slow down and starts and sales because it does lead to recessions. >> i will go back to what doug says there is not that many homers being built and pricing holding up and holding up for toll and buying back a huge amount of stock. there is not a lot of homeless being built and a lot of that is zoning we don't talk enough about zoning and how ahard it is there is been a lot of housing built further from inner cities. i want to talk about with jaime
dimon, inner city houses i have a lot of friends buying homes in the cities. >> you do? >> nashville, i think nashville is played out. charlotte. >> another banking capitol >> right, it is. >> he's been agreeing with me all day. >> it is not going to last >> how about the comments about the robust consumer? >> yes, i tend to go and say things that are trying -- >> you are addicted to the facts. >> thanks for saying that. >> you are quite welcome >> i think the banks are going up because feds are going to raise rates. lenning is okay, margins are going up remember what they are paying you. i have a jp morgan account
i am not making anything on it >> it is like -- i don't know. >> they are charging >> two years yielding more than the s&p. >> yes >> rather amazing. periodically you will see -- i looked at these dividend boosts, well, there is at least competitive. >> no deal is better than a bad deal, theresa may, is speaking right now. we'll watch her statement in a minute >> we may as well stay in the u.k., not much more to say than yesterday. take a look at theresa may there speaking live in london. we'll get to the beginning of the auction of who's going to earn sky the british broadcast company. it is not just distributor significant holder of content asset as well.
it is something that disney certainly have hoped to earn comcast and the parent company came along original deal that fox had to by the way at 61% that didn't already own. it has gotten up from there and we are 14.75 on one side we have gone through this. this is unusual that being the actual off smith that's going to take place a few hours from now and how it is going to end the three round of bidding potentially. we don't know. we don't know where the numbers are going to go and how much higher either side would go and certainly like everybody else trying to figure it out. principles are reluctant to giveaway there they're bidding strategies for fox, there is a desire to own it and they own 39%. if comcast pays more, it is a benefit to disney to the facts
they are already priced originally at a lower number some were surprise of the two companies who are not comfortable and some ways to settle out settlements if comcast wins, they want to have a partner in fox or disney in sky or will fox decide to tender in whatever the number that comcast comes up with if they do raise 1475 alternatively, there are partners in hulu there is a larger question of disney that i heard the number from the crowd the guy in the bleachers saying do you want to have maybe three distinct direct consumer offerings out there. in other words, hulu and you will have sports, and entertainment if you are disney. it is an important part of the strategy of the future it is beginning now. it is going to rev up and when they close the fox deal. people do wonder do you incorporate it all in
hulu do you need hulu is it confusing to consumer. they'll have to consolidate hulu on their own balance sheet of disney hulu is not making money it is losing money >> is there any reason why disney should not bid more in order to be able to end up with more money itself? what's the incentive not to? >> if you believe comcast will come up and you make them pay more and your value of the 39% is worth more. i suppose that's a fair point. what i am hearing is that that's not disney extent. to the extent they believe it is a strategic asset andgives the important markets that they want to access to they want to be there and make a decision accordingly as i said yesterday, i think there has been a time not that long ago where it looks unlikely where you see disney made the move but it is lobby fing from e
fox camp >> we'll see they're looking for blow outs here they expect to result in some numbers where everybody would tell me would be crazy town. at least excessive 16 pounds >> cable town, crazy town. >> it is without a doubt that it is incredible where that stock was where this began >> one thing when you are selling a company, try think of another bidder think of fox, it is 40% higher because comcast came along now, we are at 1475 and going up >> incredible. >> that's my lesson. >> all right, may says we are addiat an impasse with the e.u when we come back, people in new york city and around the world lining up to buy apple's new
can't handle the surge the apple story lines are always so diverse there is always someone who d n downgrades it. downgrade it the moment they ship and trying to make a name for themselves, a name of how to be wrong again look at that what was that fellow wearing nothing? >> close to nothing. >> what's the point of that you want to show you don't wear anything when you buy the apple phone. you are supposed to pay attention to all the different data points when you get at sales. >> you don't >> how about when we hear about well, the components apple does a great job of masking where the components come from. why say that it is just because of the age of the average iphones. it is like the way we used to do cars well, the average cars right now are four years old same with airplanes.
>> yes >> airplanes, you can't turn them into trash anymore. >> no. i am optimistic about this and i am realistic there is always an analyst who says there is a 30-day period after the stocks go down after they issue something that's where you can set it on >> we mention this rebalancing today. apple is going to be the last sort of fang name in tech and information technology as facebook and google all go to this new sector and index. >> wow, this is the kind of thing that i hate to see this because it is more money index to fang and enough already especially given the fact that facebook have been going up because stocks have present values and going up in the banks. people think it is inexpensive stocks on the estimates, it looks inexpensive.
>> a lot of people are debating on those numbers we got the cannot cuts and guidance on facebook and earnings you see different sides of the argument some say there is no way they can be that conservative or being so conservative that there is no way they can be it others pointing out of significance head winds again. >> they better start to monetize other business because instagram does not have the margins that facebook has >> instagram is a monster. >> it is a monster that's why i think they are lowballing. the expense structure has gotten it now if you don't step up and start spending more money, how much did they sell of your name to make money? we don't know because they never point from anyone from outside >> you always said, since july peaked, facebook is down 26 and
facebook is down 34 and google is down 9. maybe they did the right thing by not showing up. >> no, they did not. they absolutely have been there. >> what are you the senate >> point of order senate faber will the chairman yield? >> gentleman from connecticut or new york >> i am not sure yet >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash" and count down to the opening bell futures is looking pretty good here back in a minute cal: we saved our money and now, we get to spend it - our way. ♪ valerie: but we worry if we have enough to last. ♪ cal: ellen, our certified financial planner™ professional,
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earning multiples. how does that make a firm expensive market >> i am not sure unless they are not growing or don't are the prospect of growing. >> what happens if rates stop going up or what happens if it turns out that is this is becoming a growth economy again and people want to stop buying homes. i am saying don't you make buy the sales here i think sixth time earnings, we'll be covering micron next, four times earnings. banks, 9 or 10 or 11 times earnings i am just saying there are two markets. there is the pulte market and the gm market and there is the fang market and tech market. >> and madness >> thank you for mentioning it >> you are welcome >> we'll check on some of that marijuana related cannabis it is a nice way to say. >> they never say marijuana, did
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theresa may made a statement a few moments ago in london, says the brexit negotiations between britain and the e.u. are at an impasse. no deal is better than a bad deal pound is now set for the beggigt one-day drop in a year we got to watch this brexit caused the big decline the market wants before. i the only thing i saw, herman miller says good things. i keep waiting for something positive to break. >> they had some decent retail number this week but nothing
close to what japan has put together >> i know. the euro is getting stronger that's bad that's bad for them. the pound, i don't know, they sell liquor overseas >> very touch. there is the opening bell, s&p, realtime exchange on the big board is far fetch, a technology company and legacy, a reserve, independent company stays in texas as wti visits 71 this morning. >> yeah, people keep on talking about inventory draw downs they're hard to track down but they're talking about opec meeting. i was surprised that oil fell last time and a lot of people got hurt this time it is almost as so
much no analysts are saying positive things. this is the break out. now they're not. so maybe this is the break out >> when we got out of the iranian nuclear deal and trying to put the brakes on oil production there were so many people thought we move up then, we didn't >> we got five straight draw downs. stock piles lowest since 15. >> that's important. we can't get enough of the market or enough of the oil markets. it is some what artificial is what i am saying if we have more pipe, this will be a better and we would sew oil vamp >> i don't know -- perfect timing from the president's tweet. he's going to share that on the national security counsel where they'll talk about iran and obviously the penalties that we are applying to companies that do business with iran, that's going to grow.
there is this idea not just primary but secondary and tertiary business dealings and are you going to see certain endowments and pension funds force to invest in certain companies that do business with energy >> what was the one company that got a break that was the most viable of sanctions? >> zte >> we gave them the chinese company. our inconsistent is extraordinary. david, it is right, it is ra chynowe ratcheting up. >> it is amazing nobody cares >> guys, record highs for the dow. the s&p once again is with a close would be 101st record since the election
jim, rick santelli got some good stuff today what happens when you hit a new highs after when you are waiting eight months for that to go again it is pretty good. >> it is happening in september which we know is the worst month. people do know selling in september is pretty good and it did not work it comes back to the tremendous under waiting that a lot of hedge funds have that's why, some are saying, jim, why are you more negative of 2019. and i said well, because at least have the run up from the under waited funds that have to come in and buy. >> the longer term, jim, when you read a lot of hedge fund letters, you start to see this theme of inflation israel and the feds is too late and one way
or another, you are going to have to pop the asset bubble and 19 into 20 could be when we finally start to run out of rubber >> go back to what carl said, there is no real wage. gout an appointment of really incredible the only thing that i have seen -- >> what about inflation though and also the tariffs >> there is definitely, i am not denying that we have inflation why did darden go down yesterday? they're playing 5% per wage. there is this amazon factor that you have to put in the equation. the fed is not putting in the equation the number of people who are not as wealthy and not on prime is extraordinary because that' that's -- they should not go to dollar tree, they should be going to prime >> amazon announced yesterday of
these microwaves and clocks a-- >> that was one of the most disaster ipos ever i think devices are great and they are inexpensive i go to amazon everyday to see what they are having >> the idea is to have a voice control over virtually everything in our home and we know we are in the earliest days of the so-called internet of things where everything will have a chip and everything will be monitoring and everything will be tech and data and conceivably using the wi-fi in your home, you can say alexa, do whatever >> i would say lisa, do whatever >> how does that go over >> sometimes it talks back >> oh, i thought you said lisa >> lisa, my wife >> and you said it, it talks
back i am glad she's not watching the show >> i would say lisa put the lights on. lisa please put out my grill in the morning. lisa knows how and alexa is expensive >> does lisa have to put a potato in a microwave like that? >> she knows how to program a vcr. >> wow, that comes in handy. >> the joke yesterday was wait for whole foods to have a ton of microwaveable foods on sale, right? >> it was not whole foods, it was a regular super market on thursday of price war in natural foods. this offsets the inflation i always hear about price wars there is inflation and the price wars it is all over the place i got red hat on tonight basically there is a price war in some of software.
>> there is a price war in cyber security price war, price war >> or let's talk about micron for a second speaking of pricing, they say gross margins impacted in the near terms by tariffs, revenue below consensus. i know you are going to say how cheap it is. you got the ceo at 11:00 sanjay he talked when he was in "mad money" that he's going to come in both hands and start buying stocks. he's buying a massive amount of stocks those are selling it, they're selling it to micron i thought the conference call, there is a double order factor yes, there were people doubling order because they did not get all the micron g-ram they want it he did say inventory adjustment
and the last couple of quarters. look at broad cam whcom when th started their buy back and texas instrument it has been the bottom, bottom, bottom >> nxp is the outlier. qualcomm has been the monster as broadc broadcom >> they move high 80s into the lows >> they took the money >> i think it was counter intuitive to buy qualcomm on the failure of nxp deal. >> it sure is. >> when you did it, you are up 26%. >> he carries a huge buy back. >> a couple of upgrades today. jp and under armour goes under neutral. >> i love that piece he's been saying stay away and he's talking about wait a second it is possible that 2019 is going to be good
they got some top line growth that's going to be great the lay offs are important i thought that was important upgrade. >> and then ups on at&t goes to buy on the spread verses verizon. >> incredible, people are talking about growth again this is time warner being positive something that you talked about, david. >> we know it has been an under performer and one of the most widely held stocks there being down 12.5% in a broader market and the s&p is up 9 plus percent this year. verizon has done okay especially total return don't forget the dividends here. at&t, what's the yield there it is still pretty high. >> it is funny how the stocks buy back >> it is better than you get -- >> largest single debt out there. it is not always about how much debt you have. it is what your capacity is and how much cash you have to pay
back >> i keep on thinking of the century link deal. >> the cash flow is good there is a believe that it will help them. they'll have to do a lot of spending and randall stevenson has talked about their believes they'll have to continue to spend, for example, at the prize that hbo is maintaining that dominance if you want to call it that the or compete with the likes of in tnetflix. we say $8 billion for netflix, it is not the cash number. it is like $12 billion this year >> right the numbers are paying the hollywood stars. i was with somebody recently, these guys never seen numbers like that before >> will smith getting $75 million for the second movie and 40 more him? ryan reynolds got more money than ever.
>> there is the inflation. >> there is bad inflation. >> job switchers >> that and the nba. huge inflation >> before we go to the market. >> pass on fox right now getting them move closer on trades with mexico than canada >> meaning we get a deal >> only mexico >> canada is not as important as mexico it is just not mexico we do so much manufacturing. >> i wonder of the broader trade picture. we focus so much on china and what is so much certainly at this point of significant tensions between the two country. if canada is not apart of the new nafta. well, it won't be nafta anymore. what about abe, he said he's getting words that trump will make new demands at tokyo? >> what can i say, we all know
that there is not a country that he thinks has not been taken advantage of >> he's going through the woodward's book and trump is focused on south korea throughout that and there is a lot of antidotes of south korea. that's the one where cohen took the memo off his desk. i think the key thing about south korea is that we have always protected them against north korea and one of the reasons why we are able to do that is strong manufacturing it has been one sided and david does not like it when i talk about the situations that i think have been taken advantage of the american people >> i don't dislike it. >> i think there is a lot in your arguments >> i do. >> more with china and other places though. >> your argument that we have been taking advantage of >> by everyone >> trading partner
>> yes our company has sold out the american people, the big international companies. we have given south korea a ball to be a bull work of democracy of north korea >> have you been making secret visits to the white house that i am not aware of? >> did navarro hitting you over the head of his big book of china? >> he's not saying no. >> guys. >> we are off session highs early here let's get to bertha coombs on the floor. >> good morning. we got this tesla continuing the market is shrugging all of that off the dow is seeing its best weekly gains since july. much of the year's gain on the index coming from two stocks,
boeing and apple one-third of the index remains negative for the year and here we are at an all time highs, the nasdaq and the russell 2000 are down about 1% from their august records. the standard out this week has been the financials. they are breaking a two-week slump and seeing their best gains since march with banks among the real movers here we saw consumer -- we are hearing from a number of ceos raising flags of impact of the tariffs starting on monday that's the theme that we'll hear in earnings next month last night, micron's ceo as he mentioned after reporting earnings and beating expectations saying gross margins will take a near term head they expect to be able to figure out how to mitigate that over the course of next year. we'll hear more from him coming up in "squawk alley.
walmart is warning the trump administration that it will have to raise prices and macy's are likely to pass on some of the costs. it will be interest to see how they start building this into expectations amazon, of course, big retailer, we have not heard about amazon's expected impact but we are hearing more about that. you mentioned adt is going to partner with alexa i will tell you, carl, in my house, alexa for some reason, if i donatelloer 't lower my voicee not pay attention to me. that's what i noticed. >> i am sure it is nothing personal, bertha >> that's great. >> that's great. >> voice recognitions, they're still working on it. let's get to the bond pit with rick santelli. >> good morning carl, twos are
up and tens are up they're on the basis point of unchanged and looking at one week of tens if we want to get the gist of what everybody is looking at and by the way, we pop over 3% there does not seem to be any sense of urgency as we move some what sideways actually it is all about 3/11 we'll test across that as we get anton into the feds meeting. it is all about the u.k. today and brexit issues and theresa may and the issue of maybe her leadership is moving forward here is november 1st of the guilt of 17th. do remember that it has been affected to some extent. it was up 160, a lofty level even though it moved down a little bit if you look at the pound verses the dollar one week i know the show discussed it
earlier. a large drop if you are measuring drops. where it drops from if you open up the chart from june, it reached the scenario we have not traded up since july against the green back if we look at the dollar and yen, this is sfwrinteresting especially after the bank of japan. the dollar and yen are doing quite well it is getting close. it will be at the best levels since early of the year. the euro verses the dollar, really since may, this is something to contend with considering 118 at least thus far was a stopper. carl, david, jim, back to you. >> rick, thank you very municipamuch my kr micron is falling. we'll have an exclusive with the ceo later on this morning. dow, 71 points and s&p at 29.40.
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tilray hit that intraday high of 300. now 135, down 40 bucks, about a 23% loss here as we pay more attention to cannabis stocks, jim. >> yeah, tilray was ridiculously valued versus the rest of the group, frankly, in terms of any sort of price-to-sales not price-to-earnings. these are not big earners. canopy is the cheapest they have a $6 billion war chest. it has a plurality of market share this is the partner of constellation. it has a full suite of products so i've been saying if you have to own one, you own canopy, not tilray i had tilray on. i think tilray is doing a lot of things right but the market couldn't handle the influx of buying and the short sellers -- look, citron made a good case to short it, the probable is you
can't. >> no, you can't when they're charging 800% as was the case yesterday, it's impossible you can't take that on as the vix have to borrow the stock. >> it's painful to watch i got bought in once when i was a hedge fund manager at the end of the day i saw i bought a stock rutherford savings bank, it was trading at 18, i bought it at 28, i didn't buy it but that's where the brokers bought its because i couldn't find stock, they couldn't find stock it was a broker just paying and saying, hey, listen, you bought it at 300, sorry and you can't do it. so let's get a little more restraint on both the long and short side canopy is fine >>. >> interesting, that's an w portant delineation. doup 65 here we'll take a short break and be back in a minute
i'm ready to crush ap english. i'm ready to do what no one on my block has done before. forget that. what no one in the world has done before. all i need access, tools, connections. high-speed connections. is the world ready for me? through internet essentials, comcast has connected more than six-million low-income people to low-cost, high-speed internet at home. i'm trying to do some homework here. so they're ready for anything. >> let's get to jim in stop trading. >> adobe is paying 4.75 for more quetta this is directly in the face of sayles force adobe viewed as paying too much.
salesforce, this is taking aim at salesforce yet they're up a couple bucks because dream force starts next week and they're the wood stock of technology forces. >> is good luck getting a hotel in san francisco. >> oh, my god. >> what was great, i brought lisa and she worked in san francisco. i said lisa i need a hair cut, she goes okay. you tell me alexa can cut hair i'm telling you, lisa over alexa any day of the week, okay. >> your wife cut yours hair? >> my friend robbie just cut it, the ceo of third point cut my hair i had a ceo cut. ceo cut. >> what's tonight? >> redhat. that stock is down 340 points from its high. they had a shortfall but very
minor. i cannot wait until tonight's show the banks are moving up again and david keeps agreeing with e me. >> i missed that part. >> he's a fellow traveller. >> i'll agree with you until you're wrong. >> please stay away from pot stocks okay to use but not buy. >> tilray. >> that's my advice. >> jim, see you tonight. safe travels when we come back, we'll have more on the moves in cannabis see the place they live. ♪ ♪ and prove that the real world beats a post. ♪ ♪ ambitionsynchrony. what are you working forward to?
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♪ good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintinilla with sara eisen and david faber at post nine of the pink that. we're off the initial highs, that's the 13th record high of the year for the dow as we watch trade and a big s&p rebalance. >> our road map starts with the market unleash the bulls. the wall street rally rolls on a full market round up straight ahead. more trade red flags walmart and micron warning tariffs will impact their businesses and possibly
consumers. and the big battle for sky, the media giant, hits the auction block this weekend we'll give you the details as we head to that auction. both the dow and the s&p 500 hitting new all time highs at the open joining us on set, pimco managering director and j.p. morgan global strategist the market is rallying into the trade war. i've heard it's because the tariffs on china are finally announced. i've heard they were smaller than expected and that the market thinks this is going to be a win-win for u.s. companies. what do you think? >> i don't think it's a win-win but the question we get is what is the end game of the trade war? we've been saying the end game is negotiated solution it might not be this year. there might be a long and acrimonious negotiation. it might do damage to the u.s. economy along the way. $250 billion in tariffs is big
but the fact that china is taking down tariffs, there's evidence there's a lot to play for so from an investors' perspective there's a medium term and short term issue. we have near term cautious fading into near term outlook. >> the csi 300 in china jumped 3%. >> investors are looking for the longer-term view but it's a situation right now that growth is still robust here in the united states, there's probably just as much upside potential as down side risk we're seeing due to tariffs and people are taking a more prolonged view of that. that being said, one thing we have to keep in mind is simply this is a high-conviction market ultimately when you get into a high conviction market, investors are making allocations to equities because they're highly convicted but the uncertainty is growing in terms of tail risks growing late interthis year and next year
through the course of 2019 and maybe beyond. >> when you say upside potential, i'm curious as to what undergirds that view because we have strong earnings but people believe comparisons will be more difficult so why as much if not more upside? >> upside potential in terms of where rate trajectory is growing. >> sorry, misunderstood. >> there is upside potential in terms of the market and risk take bug investors are taking a more cautious view in terms of how they're allocating that risk at this point in time. they're going to be mindful of the risk wes see, tariffs are one, election outcomes are another. but rising rates creates two sets of situations one is a risk and on the other hand it creates an opportunity for investors to take advantage of higher rates in the u.s. and get paid for being in safer assets in the front end of the yield curve. >> there is no alternative
you wrote about a sugar high for u.s. assets and looking at em non-dollar related assets. where would you go japan? >> we're staying close to home at the moment. i think this is an environment where i think you want to be in u.s. assets on the equity side and u.s. equities large cap and small cap. on the fixed income side u.s. is high yielding markets so you want to clip that coupon between lower rates and the rest of the world but you have to be agile in this environment so if we see a turn, your classic late-cycle play is to lean into non-u.s. and in particular emerging markets so that's the missing piece of this late cycle play book so if we see a turn in the balance of risks i think we'd be agile. >> but leaning into turkey, argentina, that sounds counterintuitive. >> leaning into e.m. equities is an asia story dominated by china
and the manufacturing complex. high beta cyclical place on global growth. >> we were talking about what could cause this sort of turn in the markets. you mentioned higher rates we're in an environment where bond yields and stocks are rising together. >> the correlation is going that direction and has been and probably will for at least a short period of time the key here, though, is understanding how much risk tolerance rising rates will take -- how much rising rates or risk tolerance will take this is probably a 2019 question as we get closer to the neutral rate for the fed and as we project at pimco, for rate hikes over the next year that becomes a question for investors to understand how allocations to risk assets, emerging markets, equities, get baked into the equation in terms of their return potential but more importantly how the volatility in those at risk asset classes plays out. >> you expect the fed to keep hiking at this faster pace four times into next year do you agree that you want to be in emerging markets? doesn't it hurt their currencies >> we want to be cautious.
most importantly we want to differentiate risk factors so there may be opportunities in emerging markets but we want to be specific about how we're taking allegations, just like corporate credit risk. we want to be specific during this late cycle. this is a time for differentiation. you don't want to be benchmarked, you want to be looking actively to differentiate away from those benchmarks and taking risk allocations you think are prudent in a rising rate environment. that means a little risk reduction and allocating to less volatile asset classes >> are you not worried about the fed? >> i think a lot is baked in the cake you have two hikes which are a foregone conclusion in so far as markets are pricing. you have one high more or less priced in for next year. we expect more so we expect three hikes next year so there is a little repricing to do but i guess the key is from a multiasset perspective, rising rates is a buying opportunity, an opportunity to buy a hedge for your equity exposures with that negative correlation between stocks and bonds which is the one that prevails over the long term. >> the two-year note has increased about 20 odd basis
points over the past month it doesn't sound like a lot but you can earn in short data reduced interest rate exposures somewhere between two and a half or three and a half percent and in a low volatility environment, it's a good place to hang out over the next year until we get loose ends tied up. >> what do you make of people who draw analogs when they look at sharp rises in the two year yield that lead us to housing crisis, dotcom crisis, peso crisis does that make sense are they replicable >> it's changing liquidity conditions so one of the key factors is understanding how liquidity changes in the marketplace as we get long interthis cycle it's not exactly similar to 2007 or 2008, i won't make that deduction but we have to be mindful about how liquidity percolates and how it affects asset prices right now things seem cautious liquidity is fine. the markets are fine from that point of view. the big key here is understanding and embracing higher rates and trying to take advantage of the higher rates and portfolios going forward.
>> guys, thank you very much we're talking through risks ahead at these record highs. >> speaking of trade today, a couple warnings. we'll start with walmart reuters says the retailer sent a letter to the u.s. trade rep lighthizer a couple weeks ago saying it might hike prices on food and personal care items micron raising its own red flag. the chip maker says gross margins will be hurt by the latest round of tariffs. those comments overshadowing the company's earnings, micron did beat on the top and bottom lines. by the way, quick programming note, the ceo will join us in the next ally of "squawk alley." micron said this was about the near term maybe, the next three to four quarters. >> we don't have a domestic supply chain so it's very hard for companies whether you're consumer like walmart or semiconductor company to source
things in this country which is something i think the trump administration wants to see. as a result you'll be penalized when you see these tit for tat tariffs. walmart owns 10% of the retail market in this country i don't know how people are arguing that consumers are not going to feel this. >> they are going to feel it the question, though, is is it a good time for them to take this pain given potentially rising wages, strong employment numbers and if you were going to wage this kind of war, why is this not the best time to do it that does seem to be the thinking of those advising the trump administration and part of the trump administration's view point to leverage as much as they can in terms of china. >> there are thousands of letters sent to the u.s. trade representative in advance. they opened it up for public comment. >> not for a long time the period of review was not long between when it ended and when they imposed the $200 billion. >> but a lot of companies sent
out warnings and asked for exemptions and we'll continue to report on this png said it could impact employment in a new west virginia facility. so when it comes to job, we'll see. >> i've made the point as well there are some manufacturers who have plants here and other parts of the world where they're going to benefit from having the components made in china shipped to those factories and moving jobs to those factories as a result because you don't have to pay the tariff and they can ship, for example, from mexico to the u.s. >> complicated >> it is. >> but companies are trying to figure out a way around it big news out of the uk. >> the pound has fallen 1.5% against the dollar wilfred frost at post nine
another impasse? >> another impasse. >> eu leaders met on wednesday and thursday and firmly rejected theresa may's latest brexit plan the uk prime minister has responded strongly today. >> yesterday, he said our proposals would undermine the single market. he didn't explain how in any detail or make counterproposal so we are at an impasse. the eu should be clear i will not overturn the result of the referendum nor will i break up my country. we need serious engagement on resolving the two big problems in the negotiations and we stand ready. >> sterling falling sharply today as sara mentioned but well off the one month lows partly due to a weaker dollar and stronger uk inflation data
though theresa may did extend a small olive fwroonbranch to thet 1.5% tells the story. >> does this mean she would potentially let the uk crash out of the eu with no deal on the tab table. >> there will be a new referendum. >> that's a long way off she said she won't allow anyone to overturn the democratic decision of the people two years ago. this speech was as much for her own party to prevent more resignations following the fact that her deal was clearly rejected over over the last couple days and she needed to show leadership. we'll see how it goes down with the e.u. leaders who felt she was too firm over the last couple days and this was a firm response the chance of no deal has risen. she maintains the chance of a second reference double is cyr ree. >> she's in a bit of a vice because plenty think she isn't
being firm enough. >> i think this speech had to do that after she'd been humiliated and pushed back by the eu in the last couple days the interesting thing is happening in a moment. the two binary possibilities of overturning the result and no deal become more and more like ly likely the next month is crucial. >> what's next what should we be watching >> there's another summit coming up in november this was meant to set the terms for november to rubber-stamp what was agreed and they've stepped back from that she was firm and the eu didn't like that and she even called autothe eu for not showing her enough respect so this was for her own party to show she's strong, she's willing to go as far as no deal if they don't come back to the table and that's why the pound is down 1.5%. >> fascinating she's playing this game just as the canada game is being played back home on the same day. >> every time we hear chrystia freeland or justin trudeau
saying no deal is better than a bad deal, that reminds me of theresa may. and that final soundbite we heard to say we are ready for a no deal which whether or not they are or not, she's saying that is a strong statement the olive branch was on eu citizens rights. she said the three million citizens that live in the uk, she confirmed they would have a right to remain in the uk regardless no deal or deal. and that's further than she's gone before. that's the hope. >> i'm not sure the market agrees that no deal is better than a bad deal. >> for sure, that's why the pound is down 1.5%. >> thanks. when we come back, cannabis on a wild ride this week obviously captivating the street and beyond tilray, canopy, and others, though, getting hammered after those surges on wednesday. we'll take a look at the potential regulatory hurdles ahead for those companies and take another look at the major averages as the dow and s&p hang on to record highs, back in a
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of reck reational marijuana. it come at a time when stocks from tilray to canopy have been on a wild ride that has some people talking about a bubble. >> we are in a bubble but we were in a bubble for 1998 and it continued for three years and if you didn't make an investment in '98 you missed a lion's share of what could be earned in return on investment. >> canadians are optimistic about the opportunities. we talked to the ceo of oxley. they invested in the facility we're live from today. they said they're preparing for the next wave of legalization that comes when things like edibles will hit market. >> oxyis preparing for the second wave of legalization which is october of 2019 where we have the range of products.
>> one thing we've heard from experts is there that there may be a shortage come october once these products hit the shelves because it's hard to measure how much people use when they take surveys. a recent report from health canada echoed that sentiment back to you. >> huge story. kate rogers watching the cannabis sector. it's been flying high for months but will this craze be a boom or bust and will canada's move lead to regulatory changes back in theites. here's canopy growth ceo on "squawk box. >> right now there's 30 countries around the world regulating at a federal level. not the u.s. but there's probably $200 billion of cannabis being purchased and consumed. >> joining us, leslie pickers along with the co-founder and chief investor of the cannabis focused fund poseidoposeidon
morgan, has your thesis always been centered around big terms in legalization in major economies like canada? >> when we look at the industry et it's regulatory we've been focused on returns commensurate with the growth of the industry and we believe that's been about 30% annual growth rate. so we've been targeting companies across the spectrum from plant-touching assets in canada and the u.s. all the way through to great ancillary technology type companies. >> morgan, when you look at the prospectuses for these companies that have gone public, you see layers upon layers of regulatory risks, risks related to
regulation not just in canada but in order for these companies to expand their total addressable markets state side as well. how do you look at these things? is it a binary situation when you're trying to assess valuation or do you believe that there are more complexities that can be sifted through when it comes to sophisticated investors who really specialize in this space? >> yup and that is the genesis of poseidon was we believed you had to understand the nuances across regulation. each state, each county could have different impacts to the scaleability and growth rates for these companies and also profit margins if you look at states like oregon, for example, much more of a free market and if you look at the pricing thing there it has come down considerably whereas a state like massachusetts where it's still trying to get its regulator legal market open for the first time even though it's technically been legal for adult
use since july we believe boots on the ground is very important so we spend a lot of time traveling and exploring the markets, understanding the regulations and the peoplethat are specifically in these markets driving their businesses forward. >> leslie, you've been dig in into the pot stock hot run and the money flowing in behind it what have you found? >> so much of the momentum surrounding these stocks has a lot to do with approvals, you hear one bit of news about approval for a clinical trial to import cannabis for medical purposes for this trial between canada and the u.s. and then you see a stock that goes up 62% in a week so because of this i think investors need to be paying attention and understand what each step of the regulatory process means for their holdings a lot of hedge funds and investment professionals i've
spoke within say if you want to invest in these things you have to diversify because there's no way of knowing exactly how this all plays out given the layers of regulation and complexity and the fact that no one knows what this becomes, medical marijuana hasn't become a big market so far. especially when you look at it relative to various pharmaceutical companies as well as alcohol, tobacco and other areas you might expect to see more of a comparable size. >> morgan, can you talk about individual names at least those you see as having competitive advantages >> i think it's a good point to look at both the public markets and private because in these public names that have been experiencing these wild rides, especially in the last week alone, it's so much of a retail institution als imbalance as far as shareholder base in these open markets so that's why we see them susceptible to major
price swings so later we'll see more companies become public but we're having this issue of the institutional base is not there. one of our longer term holdings that is a publicly traded company in canada is green thumb industries, gti. we've been long-term shareholders there we like the management team. you can see what happened with the news around leon cooperman investing. he's aware of what's happening and that's a company he felt had strong management team focusing on good key markets we believe have a defensible position for the near term that will allow them to establish significant operations. >> morgan, how big of an issue is the lack of institutionalization of the economy surrounding the cannabis industry when you look at their ability to ensure their crop, their ability to open checking accounts and take out lines of credit in order to grow their businesses, how big of a concern is it that this economy that
would traditionally surround a more legal industry hasn't developed here state side for these companies? >> it's a very challenging industry to build a business we run into these roadblocks all the time insurance coverage is a great time bank accounts. there's still a long way to go but for an emerging industry we find that to be a very attractive opportunity from an investment perspective because we don't have a lot of competition from traditional institutional scale investors, multibillion dollar funds, traditional investment banking is just not here yet you're seeing the pressure coming and they're interested in participating because it's becoming a very significant industry as far as scale we're watching closely as the states act that specifically looking to help at least saying the federal government take your time but make it actually legal
at the state's level without interference we think that's a positive step that opens up banking at the state level so that would be an opportunity to carve a niche where the state banks have almost been shut out of everything else. the other major component won the resolution of 280-e which is a burdensome tax implication on the industry so we think that would be very positive and a great step forward for cannabis globally. >> a lot still needs to happen banking support, regulation, obviously as you said institutional shareholder bases, good to see you. our own leslie picker and morgan paxia. look at where the major averages stand nasdaq is negative but the dow and s&p 500 continue to push into new record highs. almost up in the s&p "squawk on the street" will be right back
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president trump tweeting supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh is under assault by left-wing politicians. he is also challenging by name the woman accusing him of sexual assault saying if the attack christine blasey ford alleges were, quote, that bad, then she would have filed charges at the time at least five people, including three infants were stabbed early this morning in an overnight day care facility in new york city one of those infants is in critical condition a sixth person, a 52-year-old woman, was found in the basement with her wrists slashed. police say those wounds were self-inflicted she is now in custody. the death toll has risen above 100 as a ferry capsized and sank on lake victoria in tanzania the toll is expected to rise as rescuers resume their search for survivors. there are more than 300 people on board 37 people have been rescued. here at home, american airlines the latest carrier to raise checked bag fees it will hike the first checked bag by $5 to $30 and it will
cost you $40 for the second one. delta and united have recently announced price hikes as well citing rising fuel and operational costs. you're up to date. that's the news update carl, back down to you -- and they don't want you to do carry-on, either so i don't know what the option is. >> thanks, sue herera. time for our spotlight this morning. dom chu is back at hq looking at the emergence of a new sector. >> it's the end of the s&p 500 as we know it. maybe not that dramatic but it happens after the closing bell today and before trading starts monday that new sector emerges, it will be called the communications services sector. it replaces the existing telecom services sector. right now that seconder has at&t, verizon and sentry link as members. not even an etf. some of the biggest tech and consumer discretionary names will become part of this
communication's services sector including facebook and google parent company alphabet and netflix. it means if you are a trader or nova scotiaor that uses etf to take the market views, be aware of the exists etfs the ones most affected will be the spdr tech fund and the recently created communications spdr ticker xlc. one notable by-product is the dividend angle the new com services sector won't have the dividend yield. it shrinks to 1.7% given new member stocks. remember the telecom sector with those three stocks had a 5.4% yield. that's part of the story if you want more, go to cnbc.com, you have a whole bunch more on that rewaiting that takes place after sara's closing bell back to you. >> thanks for the explainer. let's get back to the market dow and s&p hitting intraday record highs we pulled off the highs earlier
and the nasdaq is in the red lagging behind the big two mike anatoli joining us at post nine for some perspective as we look to the record highs and wonder what's next. >> new highs in major indexes is not a bearish thing. for context, the dow's new high is a catchup move. i think this particular move came as part of a global risk rally. you had strong bounces in emerging markets in chinese stocks, a slide in the dollar, lift in yields that gave a tail wind to stocks here as well, what we have to be tested on is how much this particular phase of the u.s. rally was dependent on that move financial are softened up after two strong days so i look back to see if it felt similar in terms of the index feel position
and it wasn't that different the s&p was up about 11% in september, up about 9.5% now it accelerated from here the difference, many belong many is the market was rushing the price in the tax cut we kind of were building expectations of this massive earnings year. this year yields higher, earnings will decelerate it's worth keeping in mind that just because enough rally in september doesn't mean you're using up the fourth quarter rally necessarily. >> what about valuations on the s&p versus this year and last year with the 10-year at 3%? >> similar valuation in itself in terms of equities about 17 times forward earnings but relative to bonds it's stretching the range of stock versus bond valuation. when we got above 3% treasury yields in january the s&p was about 18 times forward and that seemed like the market didn't
want to pay up so we may have to test that again now as we talk about earnings getting a little bit -- maybe not falling apart but getting spottier in terms of what sectors will follow the growth yesterday's rally was hard to poke holes in in terms of the rhythm. >> kenny polcari pointed out volumes were decent but not explosive. >> 2-to-1 up and down. okay but not great. >> mike santoli. see you later. when we come back, the battle for sky the media giant will get a new own they are weekend either comcast or fox and disney coming up, i'll be live with blackstone investment. i'll sit down with blackstone investment president jon gray. "squawk on the street" will be right back
despite resigning as ceo, lesly moonves is the beneficiary of some perks from cbs the hollywood reporter says moonves' office space and security detail remain on the network's dime meantime, in his "new york times" column jim stewart says the cbs board may still be on the hook for severance of $120 million to mr. moonves jim joins us now post nine to explain. you've been on it, you're still on this story. i love it. many people thought okay, there's no way he'll see that money at the end of this investigation, jim because it will prove he did, in fact, do these things but you point to something a bit different in terms of what has to be proven. >> exactly it's kind of mind-boggling that under the circumstances you would pay somebody this kind of
money given there have been 12 women that came forward but you look at ceo contracts, they were carefully written and he gets that money unless he's fired for cause. cause doesn't mean allegations of sexual misconduct, it refers to violations of cbs policy but that means any of this stuff that happened before he came to cbs is irrelevant and has nothing to do with his contract so the other key provision is did he fully cooperate with any internal investigation that will be the key thing did he tell when asked about these incidents, the relevant incidents? and the big issue here is what was he doing was he trying to get a job for somebody who had come forward threatening to complain with the understanding this woman would not come forward and talk?
my -- i'm not the judge here but it seems that would clearly violate a cbs policy >> if they pay him $120 million, i would think there will be quite a few constituencies that will be outraged >> outraged. the me too movement will go into overdrive and this is a big constituency for the network they are a consumer facing company. they don't want to get boycotted or advertisers upset i feel the board is in a terrible position here i sympathize with them i don't think they knew any of this stuff was going on. now they're going to -- >> how could they not have known any of this? by the way, we should point out the investigation may find other instances if they do the full investigation. it's possible, isn't it, jim, they'll find things beyond what has been detailed in the ronan farrow -- >> i know for a fact they have found other things. >> isn't that cause?
>> it depends on whether it happened while he was at cbs or whether they pre-date that and that will be a tough choice for them most companies would say okay, he wants $120 million, let's give him $40 and bury the hatchet. >> they owed him more than that depending on how you add it up. >> by some measures they owed him over 200 so $120 is a discount but these numbers are so off the chart for the average person this is not the kind of thing you can settle whether they give him $2 million there will be an outcry. >> you dove into the column about what the board knew and when they knew it and how it was dealt with. >> that's critical because to my astonishment the lawyer representing the board who conducted the interview did not pass on to the board the information that moonves communicated
he did mention two critical facts in this interview, one that a police complaint was filed and secondly that another woman who i know to be an actress was making noise and was going to be a potential problem and from all of my reporting, which is pretty thorough at this point, the lawyer did not communicate this to his client now i will say the lawyer cannot talk under attorney/client privilege and confidentiality so we haven't heard his side of the story. i know as a journalist there is another side of the story. but here i have to wonder who is this attorney/client privilege protecting is it the client or the lawyer i think that's still an open question. >> you say you know for a fact there's additional discovery in the board investigation, what do you mean >>. >> well, i know there is at least one more significant example of someone who has not been publicly named. >> we don't know what timeline, whether at cbs or prior? >> um -- >> i don't mean to put you on the spot. >> at this point i can't say
when it happened. >> what i don't get is do they not have enough evidence at this point to withhold the compensation >> i think that's still very much under investigation a lot of the stuff that was reported preceded -- in fact i believe maybe all of it preceded his coming to cbs. >> but you also started to answer the question i asked you last week or a couple of weeks ago and the one that has been then during question, why the board would act to go to war with their controlling shareholder if they knew this was coming >> i'm confident they didn't know when they went forward. even though from what i can tell their lawyer did know. why a lawyer would let them that happen, we haven't heard the full story but i cannot come up with obvious explanations. and they've said if they knew they would haven't done it and they've also said forcefully they didn't know. >> you talk about the fear of
boycotts other networks have dealt -- other companies have dealt with boycotts that have been short lived and moved on. >> yeah, i think the attention span in boycotts is relatively brief but who needs this i mean, in this environment which is pretty politically charged at the moment, if i'm cbs i don't want to trig they are and look who their viewers are. the demographic is -- it cues female and, again, i don't think they need that kind of controversy. >> i'm sure the board knows that jim, thanks, we'll keep following it but i know you will jim stewart. quick programming note as we go to break. monday, 11:00 eastern time, jim will sit down with j.p. morgan's jamie dimon. teiedon't want to miss that dow is up 55 and s&p almost give
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lease the glc300 for just $469 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. dow is up 57 let geese to the cme group in chicago. rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> good morning. i'd like to welcome my guest, professor rajiv tawan. thank you for joining me this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> it's so difficult i look at the stock market and it seems to be oblivious with what is going on with trade. trade is a wide spectrum some believe it's a nuisance and process that will end in a favorable fashion. others think the sky is falling. can you quantify this for us, professor? >> i would put it this way in the first round, a few tariffs here and there on the proportion of what we have put the number of products, it's a wash if i don't get my iphone at the
right price, i may buy something else which may not be tariffed like a service product so it washes out the trouble comes in when you get to the next round when people postpone their investment expenditures which then starts affecting the growth in everything. >> now notional numbers are large but how much is at stake in a realestic dollar figure over a timeline that you've just described? >> i would say on paper when they say 10% tariff on $200 billion it looks like $20 billion. but if the chinese drop their currency by 10%, it's a wash, it doesn't even show up in the data so it depends upon what is the effective cost to the consumer at the end and even the cost in the first round is a little trivial to me. >> what about -- we talk about supply chains. one thing i've noticed is that
they're really efficient at rearranging themselves in economically positive fashions can't adjustments and substitutions also occur with the creativity of trade? >> it is possible but as w >> it is possible. in the short run, it is difficult. what is that, two months, three months, three years? that's where when i was talking about the tariffs, i was talking about tariffs and finished products coming from countries where the supply chain is not that much in question. if you put it on products, especially on the auto industry stuff with neighboring countries, that can have a little more friction but on consumer products, i think it turns out to be a little too much hyped up >> i got you professor, thank you for your thoughts it is obviously a daunting issue for investors, but for the moment they seem to be looking past it. thank you for your time. sara, back to you.
>> the debate. thank you. let's go over to jon fortt with a look at what's up next hour on "squawk alley. >> good morning, sara. micron had a strong quarter. guidance has it down chip shortages having an impact, maybe tariffs too. the ceo will join us to sort it the ceo will join us to sort it out for us coming up powered by intel core processor technology. now we can access our network and work together from anywhere. hey! hey everybody. you coming back for the team building? mobility by lenovo. no? it orchestration by cdw. ♪ lease the 2018 rx 350 for $439 advana month for 36 months.
welcome back to street street stocks barely trying to hold onto gains to finish the trading week after closing at record highs yesterday. energy among the best performers in early trading crude oil is rising, continuing the climb up 4% this week. leaders to the up side, new field exploration, marathon petroleum. keep an eye on those stocks and prices >> on the rise today coming up later on "the closing bell" walmart's tariff warning. the former ceo of the u.s. division bill simon is our guest to discuss how much a threat it is to u.s. enterprise. that's at 3:00 p.m. eastern, carl yesterday, was a record close.
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the wait is over around the world. people lining up for apple's iphone xs. the watch series 4 all officially go on sale. this is the apple store in midtown, manhattan out west, josh lipton is in palo alto, we are awaiting tim cook's arrival. hey, josh. >> reporter: carl, i am here at the apple store in palo alto i am going to step aside so you can get a shot tim cook is here in what has
become an annual tradition, carl cook is here to welcome the first customers. we caught up to the first customer here at this store. he got here on tuesday night that's some dedication as for the devices, carl, going on sale today, there's new iphones, xs with the 5.08 inch display. starts at $999 iphone xs max. 6.5 inch display the biggest ever for an iphone, starts at $1099. both of those are powered by the new, faster a 12 processor, improved camera technology interesting, carl, camera tech has become a battleground for the makers photos, videos for the new phones will be better. he stressed improved water resistance, stronger battery life, and the next phone call, xr that comes in october, really