tv Fast Money CNBC November 2, 2018 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
date pb preliminary consumer sentiment reading wholesale inventories what are you watching. >> worldwide exchange at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. >> i love that show. >> it's a great show. >> close to my heart thank you for being here. >> no. >> it was superinteresting anchoring with you. >> thank you for making it easy and the whole team thank you. >> that does it for us here. "fast money" begins now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site over looking new york city's times square traders on the desk tim seymour. karen finerman tonight on fast it's the apple avalanche. there is trouble ahead cat claws back paige shares of the industrials giant soaring 8% this year but the chart master says don't trust the dead cat bounce but we start off with the trade war whiplash after three days of bliss without tropic triple digits in a dramatic day on the street after every headline on
trade moved the market let's go to the man moving the markets today. eamon javers covering the action out of the white house. >> dwas a whiled one all sorts of messages from the white house and sources familiar with the white house and including mixed messages here from larry kudlow, the head of the national economic council and the man he works for president trump. here is larry kudlow suggesting they might not close to a deal and the president suggesting they might be. here is what he said. >> we are doing a normal, routine run threw of things we put together and normal preparation okay there is no mass movement. there is no huge thing we are not on the cusp of a deal. >> we have had very good discussions with china we're getting much closer to doing something. they very much want to make a deal as you know their economy went way down since we have been doing in skirmish. i spoke with president xi yesterday. they very much want to make a
deal >> so there you heard larry kudlow saying we are not on the cusp of a deal in terms of trade with the chinese but when i asked the president when he was leaving the white house earlier this afternoon he said he we are making progress and closer to a deal which is it? three senior administration officials tell me privately there is no stepped up negotiation behind the scenes with the chinese there is no indication of any imminent deal on trade with china. but there are the normal talks that are going on at all times and normal sort of preparation that you have in any case for any scenario all that's happening but nothing of increased intensity giving anybody the sense that anything is happening any time soon, melissa. >> what was the president talking about eamon? good question. >> i i understand you can't ask him that but according to the three senior administration officials, i wonder what they say is trump exaggerating the truth that they are outlining to you.
>> i think you saw larry kudlow laying is out directly on camera on the record. what larry kudlow says is we're not on the cusp of a deal. the president is trying to set a tenor on the midterm elections trying to set a center on the negotiation was chinese. trying onto signal the markets as well. he has audiences out there trying to message and get messages to. i think that's part of what's going on here. but it's a real disconnect no question. >> eamon, thank you. well as the market tries to digest where we stand with china it's not the only thing stressing wall street. strong job numbers ensuring the fed will keep on hiking and of course days away from the mid-terms which could be a major market event but will the trade deal trump the other headlines spark a rally? tim. >> talk about a trade deal if you don't have a trade deal seems to be what's going on. except it makes no sense to me that it isn't a trade -- dwrfs
trade policy and china the rest of the world part of what he tries to appeal to the voters on and what he ran on wouldn't you focus on the best job numbers ever, talking about payrolls, wage gains that peak peaked going into mid-terms up 3.1% best wages since 2008. that's what i would focus on. >> he did. he did focus on that. >> okay but it seems to be mass annual being the trade red rhetoricic and saying we are tough, tough going to get a deal but with we may not rates up at 3.21 on the 10-year that's the bigger issue for the market. we talked about the fed. the fed is in play and that's what investors are nervous about. the economy is not falling off a cliff. >> i think that -- first of all i don't believe him on the trade, right. >> you believe what kudlow. >> inl what kudlow is saying maybe constructive conversations. that could happen. i don't believe that it's really looking good before tuesday. i mean that's just ridiculous.
but i do think that if they have a trade deal that the fed is freer to keep raising because that headwind will be out. and i think that wouldn't be a -- that would be okay. >> it's a push pull for the markets. >> yes. >> positive if there is a trade deal but negative. >> negative because the problem is the way the market is the set up right now the market is telling you they think the fed is making a policy error we can argue whether it is or isn't but the market is saying if the fed continues to raise rates it's a policy error. that's not great for stocks. we need this trade deal. we need positive news on in trade deal to offset the macroheadants nds. >> i would say this no deal is coming not in month of november. we know he set the dinner date with president xi on november 30th in argentina. maybe they will have beef off a stick. >> and -- >> and the bigger issue is this force technology transfer. that's not something you fix over an argentinian steak.
as far as the markets are concerned, listen we have the s&p that is down 6.5% or something. it's still up on the year. let's fix those big issues let's fix it at a time we see the great economic data and the economy -- our economy has disconnected a little bit from europe, from agy trace been weak data in asia i don't have a whole lot of problem with it except that it makes -- kind of undermines the negotiating position when you have the back and forth you had all day today. >> we have gone through pretty much all of the earnings season. the earnings good but the markets didn't respond we had a strong jobs number but seem to move intraday on every trade headline at this point how do you trade this market? hand tuning that seasonality comes and saves the day? earnings didn't save the day strong jobs numbers didn't save the day. can seasonality? >> we got the numbers and also talked about seasonality in the election year. but i'm not buying into that it
has to float up until the end of the year because again i look at where we came from with the market, where we are in a absolutely unique time in terms of global central banks are doing. absolutely unique time in which they gave liquidity they have to take bang are bab. the s&p not cheap. i maybe in the minority. i don't think we are doing 170 next year. which is a 7% rice in earnings i think the stock markets have choppy sledding to go. the market's anxiety is not a areefted in the next couple weeks. >> "fast money" it's watching the dollar the dollar is the new vix in this environment and we saw today intraday when europe came out of the ecb rumored that they might extend qe a little bit by supporting italy. the dollar ripped. you're owe went down and the stock market fell off. if you look at this and try to get the noise of the trade deal out of the way you have to watch the dollar the dollar up, bad dollar down, good.
simple as that. >> and then it goes back to what is that dollar doing for emerging market economies be currencies, the notion our economy as decoupled. >> and what about earnings >> apple talked about this the $2 billion hit based upon that. >> i think that's an important point. a lot of sectors are in the u.s. market are in correction bear markets some of the economically sensitive ones there is churning going on i know we are talking about the meg megacaps because though are the. >> the maga caps. >> maga. >> we will talk about the maga gaps and megacaps. >> we are dictate how 2019 goes. kwies one we minder one year the fwu the stock market was down. there could be a red year in the s&p in the off zbroog there is a lot of focus whether the bull run is over whether or not the bull market is over. but for investors the question is it easier harder in the next
six months to a year to make money? is it easier or harder than the prior six to 12 months what do you think the answer is? >> to me it's easier to make money when stocks move on idiosyncratic news. >> um-hum. >> that's not what's happening they all move together now that makes it to me much harder. then you got to be a market timer. i'm not good at that one last thing we have retail earnings still to come that could be a bright spot. but i still think that trade and the fed are the overwhelming factors. >> i just think we are stuck in this remain. ultimately you have this case where the biggest stocks carrying us look like the jury is still out and i think that's really the dynamic for the market we have been now really drifting aimlessly for much of 2018 and so your question is, is it worse in the next six to 12 months without a free put by the fed and other central banks by definition it is. >> that's what's change.
it's been easy since 2009 to ride this market up because the fedding with pumping liquidity every central bank in the world. now the process reverses makes it difficult doesn't mean the world falls apart. but it makes it more difficult you have to be more tactical as a trade pepper not a day trader but even in the 401(k) or ira you have to be tactical in the next six months than the last six years. >> it's important to remember we had a rolling credit crisis. we came out of 2009 appear looked like things were okay but then quickly moved to europe and we in issues in asia at points there were plenty of sectors that were in correction in the u.s. that were in correction in bear markets over the last seven, eight years and here we are higher in the s&p appear 2750 or something i think what's different now is we don't have the fed put. we are -- we do have a 10-year at 3.2 a dollar at multiyear highs. multinationals did tell us that the globe is a problem
apple told us last night so to me we could be -- the kmop in 2018 could look like a topping process than a range bound thing to break out zbloof biggest trades this we can you did. >> i faded strength. faded sfrengt in starbucks i faded strength for a gm which is its all own relative. that's maybe consistent with what people say about tactical i like the companies. >> the tech wreck rages on as apple gets crushed taking down the sector but could now be the chance to buy the stock plus elon musk admitting he mab may have been wrong with the wild devotes but ore stock tells a different sty. live from new york city times square "fast money" just getting started.
i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back to "fast money. watch out below because there is an apple avalanche on the street the stock down 7% following the shocking earnings report taking the sector with it bob pisani at the nyse bob. >> hi, melissa in addition to issues about trade and the fed. the apple is grappling with the megacap take problem the investors were willing to pay anything for growth and that's why gang got so big
how big? even with the recent decline they are 50% of the nasdaq fang stocks 50% of an index of 00 companies but with signs of growth elsewhere and slower growth with amazon and facebook and now apple you have a problem. since the market started fluttering october 3rd, the maga stocks the microsoft, amazon, google and apple. they have gone from combined market cap to.7 trillion to 1.3 trillion this is not surprising none of these are start-ups as they mature they move toward slower steadier growth apple is certain to slow more slowly given a top in iphone sales. facebook has stumbled but has potential avenues for growth and sales expectations are very healthy into 2020. the biggest problem is amazon.
even with the recent decline, it's still supporting a pe ratio of 62 based on 2019 earnings the s&p is at 5. but the bulls argue that revenues grow at 25% a year. amazing for a company with an $800 billion market cap. back to you. >> bob at the nyse i didn't realize how quickly maga caught on >> yes that might have been one of the most glorious segments in a glorious 25 year career by bob pisani i want to say that. >> no idea good for him. >> for that occasion we thought it would be a good time to play. >> trade it or fade it. >> maga style. we can forgo the rules everyone knows how to play. >> we've been out of games this is fun games. >> dan, you created the maga trade. >> i did. >> the father of maga. let's start with you microsoft trade it or fade it.
>> so good. >> so really interesting what bob said about amazon he actually said they have a valuation problem. it's interesting fang names we disregarded cramer disregarded fang he wishes he never came up with it. >> you know you don't wish you never came up with maga. >> he was talking about amazon valuation. microsoft there is a good chance we see fiscal 2019 earnings estimates come down. if that's the case the stock trading at 24 times right now is really expensive to me one of the lynch opinions of the better than expected quarter was -- better than expected pe growth i don't see it i think you fade it. i think you if a i had it on valuation. >> why do you think the earnings come down? i'm confused this is -- of a you will the guys we talked about they have the most priblt predictable core business. they're in gaming. that's the most defendable top line. >> what did. >> or bottom line. >> what did apple tell bus the dollar impact? these guys get more than hatch sales from overseas. growth going forward we don't have a clear picture
about enterprise spending. that's something. >> do i do the tim explain. >> are we trading. >> i would fade it. >> you're fade going too. >> so. >> let me ask you something, dan we talked about pc sales it's interesting that michael dell wants to take back dell now. you think he would have a pretty good -- has had a pretty good handle of them. >> well, i mean, okay. he did 20 years ago. i don't any. it doesn't seem clear. and there are a lot of every investors would take issue with his strategy. >> let's move to the the first a in maga. >> for me i go right prouty and say fade amazon. it's not like that i dislike amazon but if you think microsoft is extremely amazon is extremely expensive. i know they have the growth. but this is tactical in this market we have a bounce off the bottom. it looks like it's in a short-term downtrend here. i want to fade any rip on amazon. >> let's go to the g in maga
that would be google or alphabet. tim, trade it or fade it. >> i know how to play this game. i would trade this name. i think -- of all maga that dan coined, god bless he should write an op-ed about this this is the defendable valuation. i've talked about gdp r and i bring up the issues with data privacy. google has multiple levers -- they have $$4 billion businesses under the roof i like them. >> you are reading your own op-eds on cnbc. >> i talked about. >> there is something evil lying beneath shh 1,000 in this stock. i'm fade going. >> thank you let's move on to the second a in maga that would be apple karen trade or fade. >> oh, god it's a weak trade it i mean long it if i went home long it then i got to say i'd trade it but, you know it's with a very leash. i really -- i didn't love the earnings last night and i really didn't love both of of the new metrics and the way they introduced the new metricing we
will get used to them because we have to. no choice. but i didn't love that. >> i just think that it depends on the time line here. i think -- i thought yesterday's announcement was not about the numbers. it was absolutely about the guidance for a company still a hardware company that's what bothers me in the short run you have to fade it. i'm long the stock -- i'm not selling tomorrow tactically you fade this one. >> and they mentioned strength in dollar weakness appear em that's continuing based on what i see. you fade it as well. >> you don't buy any all down 20% a at one point from the high. >> all of maga down on maga anti-maga. the father of maga now down on maga. >> that was the key to the market only thing holding it up a month ago and it takes it down back towards the lows. >> for more on tech and apple's big fall, fade all of maga says dan. go to cnbc.com i'm melissa lee. our watching "fast money" on cnbc worldwide here is what's coming up on fast. >> a bird, a plane.
>> actually it's a cat shares of the industrial giant are soaring this week but the chart master says don't trust the bounce he explains plus. >> it's fair to say i would not have tweeted some of the things i tweeted. unwise. >> no kidding but ee lean musk tweets may not have done as much damage to tesla as you might think. there is much more to "fast money" right after this. at som >> announcer: this cnbc program >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored b no, i'm pretty sure i didn't order a squirrel playing a guitar. that's why you work with watson. it works with your systems to resolve calls faster and improve customer satisfaction. i detected fraud and helped reassign a new credit card. let's put smart to work. honey, they're overnighting us a new card. woooo!!! woooo!!! for ai that works with tools you already use, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job. your but as you get older,hing. it naturally begins to change, hello!
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overly exub rant neither of these things are great. and when you have big news to the stock, this just causes a distraction. >> that was tesla ceo elon musk talking in a podcast released this morning .shares of the electric auto maker have been on a rollerer coaster but the stock is up 15% in a month. tesla shares also briefly broke above the 347 level where it was before musk's infamous funding secure tweet back in august. will it be a mooting road ahead now for tesla in he did sound like a grownup. >> he did sound a little bit i mean the rebound in the stock is that musk is still there. the worst thing for it is that he couldn't be the ceo or couldn't drive the bus on this that's why the stock is up i don't think it's necessarily very smooth sailing. >> and the quarter was huge. >> it was big. >> on the podcast did he say he
didn't think. >> they think they're profitable every quarter from now on they do not need to raise money. >> right. >> they don't need money. >> if that's the case that's big. >> the irony for me is that statement is extraordinary and if accurate -- i'm not going to say if true. -- nord if if this truly happens. the stock should be higher the best thing for tesla is that it's not in dan's maga. >> the stock should have moved higher. >> i think the stock continue attentions move higher if that's true the jury is out whether that's accurate. but, we're yb i think base upon that the stock would have been higher based on the release and the refirmgs. >> here is the deal i listened to the podcast did he a good job. karen asked him tough questions. but the first take away in the first 20 minutes he talked abouten on newsroom occasions how every u.s. auto company other than ford has gone bankrupt during recessions how far do you think we are are from
a recession in america. >> 18 months. >> look at the maga stenographs stocks pretty soon >> okay. >> i'm just saying >> you know, this story if they doept raise capital before that recession comes and we don't have people buying mass market electric vehicles for 60 grand this company is in trouble then. it's that simple and you know, all the power to him, for running this thing and trying to trade the electric grid and all this stuff. but he has -- the clock is ticking here. >> throw the t in maga it might be magat now. >> tim, final trade. >> yeah, i think the home improvement pace inspect still alive appear well sherwin williams is another which to play it. shw. >> karen. >> i do believe in the retail. i do believe in the consumer in the retail michael kors reports tuesday. >> bk. >> oil doesn't look good sell xle. >> dan the father of maga what douse. >> regarding china today from our government the news was horrible that said, i think we have all
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we are live at the nasdaq market site after a wild week for the markets. guys getting ready hipped me while they're toing that here is what's coming up >> we've had very good discussion was china we're getting much closer to doing something. >> hopes of a trade deal giving chinese talks a boost. dan nathan warns the breakout is really a fakeout he has the trade plus materials and industrials have been on a tear. but the chart master says watch out, the moves could be nothing more than a bull trap and