tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 21, 2018 9:00am-11:00am EST
estimate thanks to strength and the farm and construction quick final check on the markets right now. dow looks like opening up 130 points and nasdaq is up 73 point. s&p 500 is up to 16. have a wonderful thanksgiving everybody. have a great thanksgiving guys >> you too >> "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning, i am carl quintanilla with david faber, and sara eisen and jim cramer is off today. we got news on navarro and a lot
more durables were a mess down 44. that's the worse headline numbers of the year. our road map begins with stocks set to bounce back dow tumbles nearly a thousand points >> tech has been de-faang. facebook and alphabet all have been crushed and sign of a trade war impact, economic perhaps, deere with an earnings missed slowing demand stocks are set to reopen high after two big days of selling. the dow loses a thousand points so far this week s&p is down 10% from the september high the nasdaq is barely hanging onto gain. about 45% or so are down 20 from
the high >> two months into this process a lot of that repricing had been done s&p did 90 points in two days. it seems like people are dpgettn a lot of selling out of the way. there was a lot of sloppiness in the market yesterday it does make sense to me we are seeing a little bit of a lift today. let's see if things will be punished beyond of what we think. >> some signs were not as over sold as we were in october >> we are not, you know definitely kind of retesting the same zone. i think you don't necessarily have a dramatic feeling of the level when you have been there a month ago. what's interesting is clearly what's happening last week or so is investors were selling a lot of stocks.
they thought were high quality and we knew the fundamentals were intact and it is all going to be fine it could include boeing or apple or retailer. they all got taken now people are finding their way back a little bit. this is a market that wants quality strong balance sheets. >> you got this debate raging between the economy and the markets. does the economy look better than the market is telling us? we got a fresh batch of economic data and we got more today some of it was kind of weak. durable goods. more than 4%, a lot of that was defense capital good if you stript it out and look the core, it was flat. it is expected to rise potentially a lot of business. >> estimate was down to six but nowhere near of what we got down for. >> i am talking about the core capital which is zero.
>> so not great. java claims. the labor market was the strongest part of the economy. they're trending around four-month high. we'll see if lay offs start to pile off and it is a good indication and business confidence and spending and all of that. we are still in a growing economy and things are good and consumers are good we are hearing that from the target of ceo. let's watch the trends especially as we wonder what the market is telling us with the credit market this week. the treasury market with yields. >> i wonder if the data is ratifying, okay, the market has been sensing this for a while now. atlanta fed is 2.5% right now and estimate for next year kind of going back to trend the market seems to be adjusting exactly how bumpy that's going to be of whatever new growth rate we see next year. >> let's bring in gabrielle
santos, good to see you. >> good to see you still calls for four hikes in 19 >> that was from our investment bank we would agree with the thesis that growth is set to decelerate next year. you are ready to start to see that in the data whether it is business investment spending or consumption even that trend should leave the fed on track to hike at least three more times to get them to n neutr neutral then we are not sure how much we go above that in the second half of next year that's up for debate maybe they pause a little bit there in the middle of next year we do see the economy decelerating further >> i don't know, how abojohn, h? you are sensing that number is going down, john
>> there is a chance we only see three hikes next year. a lot of it depends of what happens within an agreement with china. do we gutierrez aleutiet resolue trade war. the indication would be some slowing businesses pausing on investment to some extent as they wait to see what the outcome of this of the g-20 meeting going to be and what happens at the end of the year or first quarter related to trade. we think the fed is determined to raise in december we think it is the right thing to do. the economy is doing well, it is just not doing great no boom or bust, no bubble, no bust, we'll take it. >> there is a lot of talk how buy the dip, it has not worked it has worked throughout the bull market. btd or btdfd
how significance of a change is that that's not helping right now. >> there is another acronym. now there is a little bit more alternative, cash gives you a little bit of yield. that does not mean stocks continue to tumble here. that means the period of volatility lasts a little longer and everyone is a little bit comfortable. looking into next year, we do expect the level of volatility persists it is very typical of late cycle behavior >> we are saying definitely defen defed depends on where you are already. we would not go into 2019. if you are already there there is no need to keep adding. we do still have some clients that are still under weight and buying the dip would be appropriate. it would depend how you are positioned going into 2019 jo >> john, as we see 2019 and
estimates get solidify and seeing a lot of these accelerations. 10% is very good 10% is nup tup in the range thau may be getting where in terms of sectors is the growth can really come from. it seems like that's an environment some boats float and some don't >> we can't help but think it will be in sicyclical does interest rate remain remarkably low from a historical positive we got u.s. economy that still shows capability to be sustainable in the area of 2 to 2.5% even in the face o f a trade war and better than that we got to think of sticking with the cyclical jobs are doing well. we got wage is rising. we like tech it is trading on a cheaper
forward multiples than utilities and consumer staples are we trilike industrials it is one of the few things both sides of the isle can agree on in washington and their constituents would like to see some kind of action. last is the rough patch that we had in the market, we can't help thinking of trading revenue is likely to go up in the fourth quarter. >> gabrielle, anybody having an international fund and decided to take a look recently is probably going whoa, what happened as we head into next year and think about people sort of their allocations, what do you think when it comes to giving global strategists and those international markets in particular >> we come in this year hopeful and optimistic what happens is confidence took
a hit. trade tensions had a lot to do with that. going into 2019, we think of confidence rebound for international market i think trade is at the crux of that question. we simply do not have clarity come 2019. where that leaves us still believing the long-term story for international markets. we still want to be neutral. it is not the kind of year to be over weight in international >> guys, very helpful as we get closer to a holiday shorten week thank you, gabriel and john. >> happy thanksgiving everybody. >> zuckerberg defending the company. in a new interview at cnn zuckerberg says he had no intention of stepping down take a listen.
>> cheryl is a really important part of this company and it is leading a lot of efforts to address the biggest issues that we have. and she has been an important partner for me for ten years i am proud of the work that we have done together i hope that we work together for decades more to come >> support there for sheryl sandberg in a while. thinks awkward stance which is we have learned from this and we can do better. it is our responsibility i am not sure how much confidence is going to inspire investors. facebook posted higher yet >> i don't think it was a big surprise that he's going to voice support for current leadership and send a message that we got it yeah, i don't know -- >> right
>> literally the best analysis i have heard -- i don't know >> i don't know if this is going to be enough >> he'll take into account of the possibility of real pressure from the regulatory side or certainly from the hill and democrats perhaps who typically have been an allies of silicon valley tim cook out there taking shots, no doubt about it when it comes to privacy and trying to draw a clear line of what facebook and apple does those don't go away. maybe there won't be a change in leadership and it is hard to imagine there ever will be in the near term of mr. zuckerberg, i don't know >> i think that's a few steps down the line. to be honest with you, i think that was not a buy moment for microsoft. at least it was a real humbling
period for a few years i think they may have to convey of what they're listening for shareholder concerns and not just user or regulator >> the number that they are going to do next year when it comes to earnings, many people will tell you makes it a cheap stock, how many people will start to turn it off >> did you see rico did a piece last night that people are downloading their pictures at a rate that's slowing down the site itself. that's a precursor to deleting >> totally >> i question the advertisers. >> turning 18 times next year's earnings google is trading at 24. >> when we come back another story this morning after an earning's missed and revenue shy.
be sure to tune in for black friday with jeff gennette of macy's, we'll talk about what he's expecting for the holiday season take another look at the premarket, we got a busy day ahead. more "squawk on the street" live at post nine in a moment every investor should ask questions. is our money in the right place? what am i really being charged? and is it eating into my returns? is my advisor a fiduciary? is he always a fiduciary? a good place to start is with an independent registered investment advisor. as fiduciaries, they live by a simple rule: always act in the best interests of their clients. that's why charles schwab is proud to support more independent financial advisors and their clients than anyone else. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com
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a lot of goods around. farm is down three that got a lot of people attention. that always been the lead indicator especially how it is going to be whether looking at next season you know see in this environment where the market bounce a little bit. >> the ceo did sound optimistic. he did say -- he also talked of new features around new products trying to offset other factors that we mention that they can't control right now. the stock is down 11%. definitely under performer it does not have that look of a chart. it has been cast aside the way caterpillar did look further. >> yeah. caterpillar 122 after losing
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you are watching cnbc "squawk on the street," opening bell is in five minutes. 34 days until christmas. customary before black friday on the floor of the new york stock exchan exchange the market is closed tomorrow. the degree of black friday matters now with early november poll of ecommerce. >> yeah, people also mentioning it is a long shopping season a lot of stuff one thing that has been telling isdomestic retailers have sold off going into the season without a lot of i don't think feeling that sales are going to be poor but people are positioning in the stocks and some of the earnings, guidance
was not great. and concerns of inventory. it does appear to be related to some extent to china tom braradr because you want to increase inventory. i think there is a concern on that front in terms of the growing in you saw with target and what that'll mean for the next quarter in fact there over inventory. >> things look a little better today certainly from the earnings we got last night and gap. foot locker the better of the two and it was out digits. foot locker business is doing well as well as gap. besides the gap brand, everything is doing well and old navy and banana republic >> financially, it continues to have free cash flow. >> you look at things like
kohl's, it is down 22% and down 11% this week without much news. it seems to me that people kind of walking away. another story line that's percolating is also maybe a little boost for consumers because of delayed benefits of tax cuts and people have not had new tax rates withholding and some people expect refunds to be bigger that's not holiday but suggests that you don't want to get too negative. >> home furnishing, a lot of that is in store from china. ikea is going to lay off 7500 world wild and another analyst if they have to pick to negative spot, they point to things like bed & bath >> it is interesting with target spending delivering the rest of
it, people said when retailers are going to benefit a lot from tax cuts but they're going to compete away that's what it looks like for the industry discould wanting and spending on the possibility of defending the market share >> reasons to be thankful or what is overall a brutal market for investors. one of them is the idea that sector leadership is shifting from values to growth. he says healthcare >> growth to value >> that's finally happening. healthcare is becoming a good place to hide. >> definitely has. >> the market is starting to weaken and we'll watch it. it is not like the financial crisis >> no, it does not seem like that at all. i think that's why credit markets have acted up a little
bit. it is not a big systematic thing. it is going to be ugly, you have to have the big growth stock break very hard and have people say okay maybe they're not one way bet. people find valuevalues it is as easy to pick the wrong side as the right one. it seems that's where we are at. i would say healthcare though is interesting. goldman sachs is showing basically that's the big trade from tech to healthcare. now it seems to be everyone wants to hide. >> i think bordering on and it is the second biggest sector it is bumping up towards tech because tech got shrunk. >> the bull market is going through a middle age crisis in his view he thinks in the end you whine
up with value leadership over growth i mean it is optimistic to say middle value really out performs in bare market. there is theopening bell and s&p at the cnbc realtime exchange it is macy's at the big board celebrating the 92nd macy's thanksgiving parade. at the nasdaq, blank check company. mike mentioned goldman price target at 226. largely on this one, uncertainty, very little edge and no one knows what the final cost is going to be. >> it seems like the kind of call, okay, it is going to be an over hang for a while. we don't know how it is going to compute in terms of price. it is also going to be interesting for me to see how
goldman stock respond because it is slightly green right now. stocks trade down to tangible. so that may mean a lot of what the downgrade is based on. >> trading below book i believe. >> morgan stanley estimates about $1.8 billion in overall cost 1 $1.2 billion is what they are talking about in terms of fines and $600 million in fees that would be returned to the government it is an incredible scandal if you have not read about it >> he's still out there, that guy. earning low and whatever his name is, china goldman is certainly trying to work through a lot that's related to it. i wa >> last time it was trading below, october 2016, that was right before the banks had that big run up after president trump was elected. so it has been there in the last
two years or so. >> speaking of the president, he tweets this morning about oil, thanking the saudis for keeping the price low, after a day of questioning of the murder of khashoggi. canada's new service responding saying canada is the biggest importer into the u.s. of crude, 40% verses saudi arabia, 11% what are you going to do >> yeah. saudi is the marginal difference conceivably. they certainly have an impact on crisis as far as exceeding that to canada but it is true canada is the larger provider here >> you also can't escape the fact that oil started to collapse the day after khashoggi's murder the market proceeds it may be the way that saudis would -- a lot else is going on now the market and oil is trying to stabilizing
>> the u.s. were doing about 11 million barrels a day now. our shell producers and the premium and extraordinary productive thinking of what you are going to do in terms of next year production, you may start to scale it back at this level and a few weeks ago where you are in the 70s, it is a different calculation. that'll be interesting to watch in terms of budgets and programs >> now there is talk of an opec cut with russia which is something that has been building they are worried of over supply, talking about cuts of $1.1 billion barrels a day >> you are wondering if there is a concession that's happening or if the market is priced lalread?
>> does it help the feds or figure into his thinking >> sure. >> and oil obviously be depleted >> oil is not inflation because they strip out the volatile part of it and it is considered a transitory sort of impact on inflation. it factors into the picture because people pay for gas prices, moderation of oil and the u.s. dollar would be things that if feds pay attention to and the context of a larger stock sell-off it all factors into how the economy is doing inflation, wages have been a bigger deal in terms of the inflation picture and pointing into the direction of the fed hiking wages have started to rise in a meaningful way and that's more key say the moderation of oil prices but it is apart of the peckture picture. >> inflation is reflecting of what oil have done
goldman got a piece today, they found out at what point the fed blinked? especially when credit spreads wide enough. although we got the credit part, they argue we have not seen it >> the question is, did you get enough on the credit side? >> yes, it is definitely tighter in the credit market they were coming off very strong levels and tight spreads and actually i think the last little burst of weakness in high yield, for example, out flows of nine or ten straight days, that's not necessarily smart money deciding that we have a credit availability problem it is kind of look i am afraid of this market right now the index for high yield is 7.2% right now. you would think it is going to attract somebody if the market is calmed down and all in the sense of fresh money coming in
>> we'll see how that goes but i agree with the general point stock market going down in a couple months is not fed relevant right now >> autodesk today is up 11%. foot locker is 16. we have a wall graphic of stocks to be thankful for with tesla up in the past month, up 33. ulta is up 11 and starbucks is up 14. do we look at those as indicators >> tesla has nothing to do with stocks or cars or anything else. it is really you know how is this particular company is going to execute on the megaplan >> the rest is i think you have some reasons to say. software, if you look at auto in the general realm, you would think that's where people come around to. it has been the strongest subset
of texts today how apple trades it is up 1% a little bit less right now but on this foxconn news cutting back of a big ratify of what we are afraid of. that's another one of those things that could be in the market >> technology, communication services are all doing well today. yields are higher today, the dollar is lower. so people are relaxing a little bit. >> it is calmer than recent days that we have seen. apple's stock is seending down another 4% yesterday it has tumbled 20% >> the biggest source of funds so to speak for anybody. >> i think there was too much of a perceived certainty of the story. they're buying back all the stocks and why would it go down? that's exactly what the set up is when it goes down >> not a great deal of corporate
news wall street journal does have a story indicating that walgreens and humana is experiencing a relationship with each other equity in each other that had walgreens' stock price up humana is not doing much goldman sachs comes out, these partnership will change behavior and drive a meaningful improvement in store traffic not clear what led to this they have a partnership in the past again, it is the current reporting at this point. we'll take a look sort of monitor and see if they have an announcement you can see walgreens is up at 1.6% this morning. >> utilities and real estate and financials are the loser of ts f 500. so far, all sectors are lower on
the week people are still talking about how we have not seen the panic move out of stocks the number of times people came on yesterday saying this is all orderly. it is not a wash out yes, we are starting to see it and start to see investor sentiment shifts it is not a pile up of extreme bearishment. >> everyone wants the other guy to panic you are trying to gauge how extreme is extreme people are concerned and there is no doubt about it yesterday's price action is a little sloppier. 90% down on the nyc in terms of volume maybe that's enough for now just because you have not repeal the idea of some seasonal strengths. i agree if you want a pfat pitc, you did not get it >> all right, with all that, you
got adobe up 2.6, amazon is 2.4.n2.4. netflix is up 1.6. >> stoclet's get to seema mody. >> we are seeing strengths in technology and some analysts on wall street say now maybe the time to get in the pull back in amazon shares make its valuation more compelling u.s. online spends this holiday shopping season. earnings is still a big story, deere is getting caught in the cross fire rising steel cost, agricultural prices, cutting cost and raising prices on that note, it is worth noting since the start of the earning season and mid october, earnings estimate for the fourth quarter have come down 3%. analysts are still expecting growth but slowing profit growth for the fourth quarter and for the first quarter of 2019.
the economy, some new numbers there on the housing front, home refinancing request to an 18-year low. single families start which comprises the largest share of the market 1.8% of october. we have home builder and sentiment cooling as well and about 15% of all economic economy. these concerns have translated into the market. we have been home builder stocks and i-share home construction of etfs is down we are looking at the vix below 23 right around 21. volatile till is cooli volatility is cooling a bit here >> definitely calmer to you. >> let's head over to rick santelli at the bond pit in chicago. good morning >> good morning sara if we look at yields, it is mix.
10-yr is hovering very close unchanged. if you look at one week of two-yr, you get the idea harbau you can see the way we rounded off and we start to level off. that could have some holiday features to it as most of the heavy lifting maybe done with regards to trade i know we had durable goods. i was there this morning at 8:30 eastern. if you look at what shows up the long end, it started before the numbers came out about 15 minutes before we did lose some of that horsepower a lot of talk obviously about what's going on in the credit markets and how unusual it is that the credit market was seeded in large part of equity it is the credit markets that send out signals that equitiy
starts to get volatile etf is hovering at the lowest level since the fall of 2013 when i thought would be fascinating is isolate that date you can clearly see dhyg had a nasty time, too. there is a good reason for that. many are nervous that the investment pool is going to drip away and ultimately become a bigger feature of the high yield pool whether that occurs or not is hard to say and speculators of course in tand the etfs havea lot of emotional trading yes, they widen but not nearly to the extent, although they play a big game of catch up in the last ten trading days.
full-ti finally the dollar index, this starts at the beginning of the month. that's the crown so far. 17 months crowd. we are not far away at this point even though it seems like we have seen some big down days for the dollar index it is hover quite well it is slightly above 92. mike, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much >> despite the ceos are expre expressing a rose y outlook. kourtney reagan is in new jersey with an answer on all this >> kourtney. >> hi mike, i know we are focused on the retail stock movements. the retailers and employees at the store, they're focused on this big weekend at hands. we are at a kohl's store right
now. 30 hours right now it is going to see the busiest traffic of the entire year when kohl's starts to open its doors at 5:00 p.m some are available online. i am takes awful a lot for retail stores and websites to gear up to handle the volume of influx of shoppers and get the right product or right stores for the big black friday weekend. it is no small fee the planning begins about a year in advance the product it gets to shore months before it gets put out on the shelves. as retailers and stores leaning more and more into the buying. here at kohl's, they promise buy in line and pick up in store in less than an hour. stores filling 40% of digital
orders for kohl's, that moves up to 50% during the holidays americans will shop sometimes between thanksgiving to cyber monday last year though ultimately more came out, 174 million and while thanksgiving shopping and ecommerce is definitely holding some sales away from black friday it is still retail's biggest day of the year at least for most of the retailers. when it comes to who is opening the earliest, jc penney is opening its doors at 2:00 and macy's and best buy will join kohl's at 5:00 p.m. and walmart is not going open until 6:00 you can go ahead and come at 6:00 if you will to fuel up with some coffee and cookies. back in the stock room to prepare for what's coming tomorrow back to you guys >> thank you, courtney reagan watching black friday for us
millions are expected to fly to their destinations this week, phil lebeau at o'hare. >> reporter: this is the biggest weekend for airlines mild weather around the country so no mass cancellations what we are seeing at o'hare, a smooth start to the holiday weekend. think about this a record number of people are expected the fly this holiday weekend, more than 30 million people will be traveling some where and the airline industry could use this. if you can look at the airline index, this year, let's be honest, it is not a stellar year for the airline stock overall. but, for united airlines coming off rough 2017, it is now the top performing airline stock this year. take a look at shares for all of the airlines, we are talking about delta, american and southwest, they're all moving
higher the last three months of the year, airline stocks tend to rally and that's what we have been seeing with a exception of a little bit of pressure the last couple of days. it is been an improving atmosphere for the airline guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you very much >> we'll talk to macy's chief, jeff gennette, he'll join us to talk about the state of the american consumer. the dow is down, a big chunk of that is boeing s&p is at 15 as well back in a minute i am an independent financial advisor. when i meet a new client, i start by asking questions like: did you understand all the fees you were paying? was your broker a fiduciary? were you satisfied with the attention you were getting? then i explain that being independent gives our firm the freedom to give our clients the attention they deserve. we can put a plan together that makes sense for them. independence lets us do that.
let's look at this morning's top-performing stocks in the s&p 500. check out foot locker leading the pack it's up 15%. not showing up there, but double digits on a better quarter all around comps doing better than expected it's a halo effect on nike and under armour and adidas trading higher off the news after foot locker talked up its exclusive
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commodity desk. crude prices breached the key technical levels of support we were watching closely look, the stock market made the crude market shudder yesterday, questioning global growth, questioning demand this is a market that's well supplied the u.s. pumping closer to 12 million barrels a day. opec near 33 million at 10:30, we'll hear from the eia again. will those production numbers domestically continue to rise? if they do, it could weigh on the market remember, the 20% slide we saw, that was the iran premium coming off the market there could be a deeper slide coming here, a slide based on the fundamentals but a lot of that will have to do with how stocks hold up and how investors feel about the economy meantime, geopolitics, they do matter in this trade, too, and the president not taking a very aggressive stance, perhaps, on saudi arabia, that's calming the oil investors a little bit not unlikely to see a bounce like this today after that considerable selling that we saw yesterday, guys. back to you. >> interesting it seems like when it came to
stock investors it was almost the velocity of the decline in the markets, in the oil market, that got people unnerved i think any time a big market like that spills in such a dramatic way it's not so much is it good because we have lower energy cost, it's a risk off trade and that's the way i think it got. >> 7% down. >> just yesterday and that was after it's been so weak, yes. >> interesting, one of the exxon downgrades in part because they're not correlated to brent which they see going back. >> almost the anti-crude. when we come back, strategist david rosenberg with gluskin sheff. don't go away.
♪ wake me up before you go-go, don't leave me hanging on ♪ ♪ like a yo-yo, wake me up before you go-go ♪ ♪ i don't want to miss it when you hit that high ♪ ♪ wake me up before you go-go >> good wednesday morning, welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintinilla with sara eisen and david faber at the new york stock exchange a brutal two day selloff, about
a thousand points on the dow in two days getting about 100 and change back good day for cruel as well, best in seven weeks and nibbling on big names like nvidia and facebook and amazon. >> no question tech is doing better today but for the year, you pile it up and for the first time in a while cash is outperforming, stocks, commodities and bonds. >> we're about to get existing homes, lei, here's rick santelli. >> i'll start out with october reading on leading economic indicators which i picked the only number that is an out let's go to our november read on university of michigan sentiment. we were expecting the number around 98.3 which was the mid-month number, it deteriorated to 97.5 so 97.5 is the final read, the lightest read since august inflation rates are out as well. five to ten year
we will head the wagons east to diana olick. >> rick, existing home sales in october up 1.4%. the street was looking for 5.19 and that's the first increase in the six months but year over year down 5.1% and that's the largest annual drop since july of 2014. realtors are saying unkwially the chief economist said, quote, in no way is housing on solid ground at the moment he also said the realtors' confidence level was at a four-year low and that their outlook was at a six-year low gain in prices since june of
2014 so we are seeing inventory rise which was a good sign for the market right now but we are seeing investors and all cash coming back into the market. back to you guys. >> diana olick, thank you. the dough shedding nearly a thousand points, major indices are higher is it time to buy? plus faang fights back. >> and oil is ticking higher after a surprise inventory drawdown the president thanking saudi arabia an twitter. looking at stocks bouncing back after yesterday's selloff but we are coming by a one thousand day slide let's bring in our markets panel, jim lowell, mark zandi
and jeff mortimer. welcome to all of you. mark, we just got a lot of economic data and everybody is wondering if the markets are signaling something about the economy or whether there's a big disconnect between stock market action and the economy factor in the latest data for us and tell us how you see it >> investors are anticipating slower growth ahead. that's not surprising. we had 4% plus growth in the spring/summer so the slow down isn't unanticipated. but i think this is the typical market correction. the market is down 10% from its peak given higher interest rates, given the trade war, giving slowing growth. that's all that should be expected so i don't think it's signaling a dramatic weakening in the country but certainly a slowing. >> jim, what about you do you see this having more of a
lasting impact or are you taking the opportunity to buy >> i think we're doing both. the reality is, we haven't seen anything like capitulation of panic selling. what we've seen is a rational paring down but in times like this, it continues to support slow growth. certainly not know growth. this is a great time for long-term investors to build their wealth it's too opaque to see even a few weeks ahead. >> where are you building that wealth for the long term what sectors >> well, we are very strong believers in the health care sector overall biotechnology inside of that sector to be sure, medical equipment and systems, pharma, we think low risk high return is likely to attend that sector
over any reasonable investment span of time we also like battleship balance sheet blue chip dividend payers, you'll find in dividend growth we like global schmidt small-cap value stocks less roiled by currency concerns and trade war issues >>. >> jeff, what are you telling your clients are you telling them buy if you have a long-term view? >> we've been overweight in equities since just after the presidential election. we've been taking a recent volatility that began this summer july continued into october and continued into this week to move to more neutral posture on equities what's changed is the probability of a down side
surprise, especially in the area of trade war that's what the market is trying to get its hands around. the change in leadership that we've seen out of technology and the pe contraction we've seen, the move to value are all very consistent with the market that's wrestling with what it should pay for forward earnings. >> mark, we're going to hear from powell next week at the economic club of new york along with fed minutes it's going to be a busy week after we get through thanksgiving i wonder how you think he might sound different from dallas now that we have durables and michigan in our pockets. >> i think you should stay the course growth is slowing and slowing from a very torrid so the slowdown isn't unexpected and you have to put in the context we're slowing but the rate of
growth is slowing to a pace well above the economy's growth potential so unemployment is going to continue to decline so i think he has to send the signal that he's staying the course despite this sturm and dplang the markets this is typical. >> jeff, we can sit here and wring our hands and count the point losses and we can look at names in bear markets and correction but you believe that in powell's eye this is exactly how it's supposed to go. >> exactly i mean, you know, the fed is raising interest rates the slow the growth rate in the economy so it doesn't overheat so those parts of the economy and markets that are interest rate sensitive will get hurt by it by definition and that's by design so that's the housing market we heard the housing statistics. higher mortgage rates are taking steam out of housing, that's by design you raise interest rates
pes come down, stock prices weaken and it slows growth in the economy. this is exactly to script. >> jeff, you mentioned moving to a more neutral stance when it comes to equities. specific to china and what impact that may be having overall in terms of slowing economic growth how closely are you watching that? how determinative is that going to be in. >> we're paying attention to fed policy i think the market is questioning whether the fed has to be as assertive as it is postured but that can change in the blink of an eye. you could have a change in policy a pause indicated by the fed
we think the trade war is a more difficult situation to resolve potentially. certainly the g20 meeting later this month is a chance for both sides to do something on a public stage or perhaps you begin some reconciliation but that could move the other way. and markets, we don't have a very good precedent for how to discount trade war and i think when you don't know what you don't know, the unknown unknowns as it were, that markets can a lot of times -- aim, shoot and -- shoot, fire then aim. >> we're talking two big themes, the big sources of anxiety, the fed and the trade war, jim it sounds like mark and jeff are on different sides of what the fed should do or whether it should moderate its tone, respond more quickly to the
weaker parts of the economy. does it matter to your long term thesis for buying stocks of what the fed does maybe next month or next year? and its tone and whether it's being too aggressive >> no, it doesn't matter all that much for long term investors what the fed is going to do or not do come mid-december but what we're certainly cognizant of is that the fed's job is to safeguard the economy, not the markets but it's cognizant to that the markets look to the economy. they're damned if they do, damned if they don't if they pause that could send a shock wave through the global markets fearing our fed is seeing the economy coming off the rails more than they earlier forecaste forecasted i thinks the a fed like prior feds that, thankfully, is unwilling to surprise the market on any given day. >> even though the president has made it very clear, reiterating yesterday, mark, that he wants
to see lower interest rates. >> he did say that, didn't he? >>. >> i thought larry kudlow said there's no recession in sight. >> that would be a big mistake the key threat to this economy is that it overheats 3.7% unemployment rate going to 3% we've had a 3% unemployment rate twice in history once in world war ii, the other time in the korean war we've never been here in peacetime. this is not sustainable so it's important for the economy's growth rate to slow to something consistent with a growth rate to maintain stable unemployment so lower interest rates would be a huge error. >> we will leave it there with that opinion guys, thank you very much. >> when we come back, facebook tumbling more than 30% since its july high. the once-high flying faang stocks in a bear market. is that a buying stunt or is the bottom still to come as we go to break, look at the
top-performing names on the s&p with the s&p itself up 17 points, back in a moment ron! soh really? going on at schwab. thank you clients? well jd power did just rank them highest in investor satisfaction with full service brokerage firms...again. and online equity trades are only $4.95... i mean you can't have low cost and be full service. it's impossible. it's like having your cake and eating it too. ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs. how am i going to explain this? if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab. schwab, a modern approach to wealth management. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts
fidelity. [ready forngs ] christmas? no, it's way too early to be annoyed by christmas. you just need some holiday spirit! that's it! this feud just went mobile. with xfinity xfi you get the best wifi experience at home. and with xfinity mobile, you get the best wireless coverage for your phone. ...you're about to find out! you don't even know where i live... hello! see the grinch in theaters by saying "get grinch tickets" into your xfinity x1 voice remote. a guy just dropped this off. he-he-he-he. getting a bit of a bounce in technology today following the carnage we've seen over the last few days obviously those stocks have a long way to go before they make up for recent losses facebook down 22%. mark zuckerberg talked to cnn
following that "new york times" investigation. >> i wish that we understood the issues sooner, right i wish we understood it before 2016, before the russians tried to do these information operations in the first place. it's a big deal to stay a nation state is behind something and before our company puts a stamp on something saying that, i want to be sure that that's the case. >> joining us from boston today, portfolio manager and director of growth equity lupe antidose guys, good to see you, happy thanksgiving in advance. you got thoughts on facebook. >> positive on the stock i think zuckerberg is being disingenuous there it wasn't the question that he's right that it was hard to pick
up but it was more what the "new york times" documented pretty thoroughly was after it came out, after there are all sorts of warning flags, there was deny, obfuscation, tried to mislead, attack and that's where i think they fell down but i think they're laser focused and this too shall pass. the companies i still think has growth left in it. it's a third the size of google, one-sixth the size of apple by revenues so facebook still relatively small still has a lot of growth left in it and it's the earnings of the company that will matter for the stock. >> lou, what do you make of the argument and do you agree we have seen minimal signs advertisers will find anything actionable in this controversy >> well, i agree with whitney that ultimately earns will
determine the direction of the stock. it's hard to determine what that earnings stream looks like and where the growth is going to come from. you're seeing huge margin pressure within the business as they try to -- spend to aleve yale issues they've got and no one knows where that ends while at the same time there are issues of user fatigue and if we see user metrics that which are starting to roll over a bit. if that continues i can't see the stock outperforming in the near and intermediate term. >> there's also the threat of regulation from washington, whitney. are you afraid of that >> it depends on what form it tak tak takes. in some ways, regulation may entrench the incumbents. it's hard to see congress doing much of anything meaningful on any controversial topic given how polarized it is.
i think tight regulation would be healthy and even if it happens i think facebook's earnings will be higher in three to five years. agree totally with the other guests i have that no -- this stock may well be dead money in the short term this is a buy and forget about it i think you'll come back and have doubled your money. >> doesn't it matter what management sounds like and how -- you're talking behavior, communication. i watch that interview, it was robotic. i think you just called it disingenuous you can be a firm believer in the metrics and numbers and growth poe ten official zuckerberg who is all powerful in this company and doubled down on cheryl sand fwherg this interview -- >> i remember being here on cnbc live when jim cramer was saying bp was, quote, unownable after the oil spill. the stock quickly doubled so
sometimes it's amidst that kind of taint that i have to put on my investing hat and say what does this look like a year to three years from now these scandals end to pass. >> they do but i still wonder about people using the flat form what do you see facebook looking like three years from now. is it largely instagram? is facebook still the important platform for the company what about oculus? what about whatsapp? >> i think clearly in the mature market there is won't be more growth pretty much everyone in the united states who was ever going to be on facebook is probably already on it but fewer than half of the world's adults have a smartphone they are not connected and i think over the next ten years a couple more billion people around the world are going to get connected ang i don't think
they're going to be buying iphones, for example, which is why i'm not particularly bullish on apple as insanely great a couple that is but it makes me bullish on google and facebook i think a couple billion more people will start -- get connected and going to start using all sorts of google and facebook products. >> i wonder just to take your temperature on tech and the framework of what we've been through, to whitney's point, does it force you to recompute these long-standing secular stories we've been talking about for years? >> absolutely. each one of these secular stories is at a certain phase of their life cycle in social media it's much later in its life cycle than maybe other trends out there that being said these companies generate cash flow and over the long term those companies with
issues over time, that will pass by you need to extend your time horizons. >> sounds like you agree with alphabet looks like it's one of your biggebi biggest holding. >> alphabet, i believe the valuation, the franchise, the cash flow, the growth opportunities that they have, it's one of the most innovative companies in the world, this stock is a screaming buy at these levels >> are you shortening anything >> i'm not running a hedge fund so i do think with the turmoil in the markets ong-only investors should be listening to short sellers, especially these days, it's not a straight up comply sent bull market where we have 16 of the world's best-sellers teaching shorting but sharing their best short ideas. >> we'll talk to you in the wake
of that, december 3. whitney, lou, thanks so much, happy thanksgiving. >> thank you let's get to deirdre. >> amazon exposed customer names and e-mails in what it says was a technical error. here's what happened some amazon customers received an e-mail from the company telling them their names and e-mails had been exposed amazon says the problem was resolved but it didn't provide clarity on how many users were affected nor for how long. amazon said it was unnecessary to reset passwords because it was not a result of anything they had done. carl >> i'll take it. deirdre, thank you. when we come back, it has been an ugly week as people know for some big names in retail coming ahead of a big week and a big quarter for that seconder, of course. plus a black friday interview you won't want to miss jeff gennette will join us for a
first on cnbc interview. that's friday, 9:00 a.m. here from the nyse. "squawk on the street" will be right back sometimes, they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group - how the world advances. ♪
time for our etf spotlight seema mody is on the floor >> the this broad-based rebound we're seeing on wall street started overseas the emerging market index up 2% in today's trade china shares posting gains as well helped by alibaba taking a step back the emerging market index on track to close the month in the green largely due to weaker oil price s. analysts are still cautious about whether this index can continue to outperform into year end on fears of another rate hike other big factors, trade any sign of a pause in trade tensions or a high level agreement out of jooet will be seen as a positive for emerging market stocks.
with november gains, the emerging market index down 14% this year. back to you. >> seema, thank you. when we come back, oil is moving higher but geopolitical concerns continue to walk on the stocks we'll talk to the global head of commodities strategy. and it's a big day for travel a look at how planes, trains and automobiles are doing going into the holiday weekend. "squawk on thetrt" see will be right back dow is up 148.
welcome to emirates mr. jones. just sit back, relax and let us entertain you... ...with over 3,500 channels of entertainment, including the latest movies and box sets from around the world. ( ♪ ) we even have live sports and news channels. ( ♪ ) and your free wi-fi will start shortly. enjoy your flight mr. jones. world's best inflight entertainment. fly emirates. fly better. good morning, everyone i'm sue herera, here's your cnbc news update at this hour an early-morning fire gutted a dallas apartment complex flames ripped through the three-story building luckily everyone was able to escape that fire no word on how that blaze started. at least one person is dead and as many as five were injured in
an accident on new york's brooklyn bridge this morning four vehicles were involved and three of them were fully engulfed in flames when the crews arrived. that's the wrong video that's the fire video that we're going to tell you ant. rescue crews are preparing for heavy rain following those devastating wildfires. crews are shoring up burned hillsides to prevent mud and rockslides first responders are still looking for hundreds of people missing in those fires today in new york the balloons that will be used in the macy's thanksgiving day parade will be inflated outside of manhattan's museum of natural history. four new floats debut tomorrow including elf pets, fantasy chocolate factory, rise of the teenaged mutant ninja turtles and splashing safari adventure now we just have to hope the winds cooperate and balloons can be on the parade route that's the news update
carl, back down to you. >> windy and cold soon let's get to jackie deangelis and get the eia number for oil. >> this is interesting crude oil got faked out by a small drawdown from the api. sometimes numbers are accurate, sometimes they are not we are trading 5444 before this. crude oil is still positive for all the reasons i highlights a short time ago but those gains have been faired the issue when it comes to crude prices is seeing these builds every week and seeing the production climb, the last number i have is 11.7. >> thank you jackie deangelis. amid the ongoing controversy surrounding the killing of joke, hadley gamble sat down with saudi arabia's foreign minister
and joins us now. >> hey there, carl i had to say to the foreign minister again and again this is a top-down society inside saudi arabia how is it something like this could have taken place and the crown prince not know about it let's listen in to what he had to say. >> we have made clear that saudi arabia is not involved in this, the crown prince is not involved in this at all i think it's very strange people render opinions without having access to the evidence and these opinions were rendered from day one. saudi arabia was declared guilty without people seeing evidence, without people knowing the facts. then we have the official spokesperson of the state department saying the reports of the cia report are accurate and we have the president of the united states saying that reports of the cia report are not accurate. >> interesting to note the saudi foreign minister was responding to, a, how the crown prince did
not know, he says, about the murder of jamal khashoggi. i asked him, i said these are people close to the crown prince i also asked him does saudi arabia feel victimized by this bipartisan push, whether it be taking a tougher line on saudi arabia, he continues to say this seems as if they don't know all of the facts i asked if he'd seen the cia report and he said no. he said interestingly enough that he hasn't heard the audio that took place in the turkish consulate. i asked him do you feel responsible for what happened there and he said we feel a personal sense of responsibility and i asked him if there was any credence to the rumors we've heard again and again raised in the press that members of the saudi royal family and others want regime change
listen in. >> the leadership of saudi arabia represented in the king and crown prince is a red line for every saudi, man or woman. the country is totally supportive of them the kingdom of saudi arabia is committed to the vision that our leaders have put forth for us. >> i also asked him specifically about the aramco ipo, i asked him about the risk premium, i said this isn't just about oil prices, this has to do with political stability in this country and this incident compiled with the other incidents. we've seen over the last year including the ritz-carlton riyadh detention situation where several saud diswere held for several days i said this isn't something that gives investors confidence but
he said people should feel confidence i think it will be interesting to see how this plays on the market going forward guys >> hadley gamble very valuable comments from the saudi foreign minister on the topics in our news today crude prices are rebounding after that big slide yesterday not to mention the last two months president trump tweeted about it saying oil prices getting lower, great. like a big tax cut for america and the world, enjoy $54 was just $82 thank you to saudi arabia, but let's go lower let's bring in the rbc capital markets global head of commodities strategy so give us the state of the relationship between saudi arabia and the united states and how that's impacted oil with a big slide yesterday and a little rebound today.
>> basically they signalled the price of the loyal city that saudi arabia will have to continue to keep the taps open in terms of oil production that's at odds with what saudi arabia needs to balance its budget it will be important to see what happened to the upcoming december 6 opec meeting. it's going to be important to see what happens to saudi production policy. >> do they cut production with the rest of the opec members in russia which everybody was talking about last week or do they not because of the relationship that president trump affirmed with saudi arabia yesterday very publicly? >> right that personal relationship between president trump and crown prince mohammed bin
salman it's my view that self-preservation and economic welfare will be the most important to the saudi leadership so i believe they will continue to anchor a large production cut if saudi arabia is not going to pull any barrels then there's no discussion about an opec cut so i think it will be interesting to see what happens after that opec meeting. if they pull those barrels, how does president trump respond at the same time, you have to u.s. congress, both sides of the aisle, pushing for tougher sanctions on saudi arabia, blocking arms sales. they sent a second magnitsky letter to the president asking specifically if the crown prince was involved in the khashoggi killing so going forward i think u.s./saudi relations will remain strained because of what's happening on capitol hill. >> halima, does the analyst community within the energy space take the president's tweet seriously? this idea that maybe he did and maybe he didn't?
>> i think the analyst community takes seriously the idea that president trump has the ability to force opec's hand president trump asked saudi arabia and opec to put barrels on the market and they responded. so you see a situation where saudi was quick to respond russia was quick to respond and potentially oversupplied the market going into the iran sanctions decision he so if the saudis continue to placate trump, they'll be overselling in the market. >> in term who was the shale
producers keep the budgets where they are, accelerate them or pull back given this huge pullback in the price in such a short amount of time. >> i think this is an interesting question when you bring up u.s. shale producers because off situation where if president trump really wants prices to continue to decline further, that will hurt the u.s. shale industry so i think it's a very interesting dynamic that must be unfolding in the white house between on the one hand wanting to help the u.s. consumer but you have an important u.s. shale industry that will be hurt if prices fall further so that will be part of the discussion i wonder what harold hamh is advising president trump right n now. >> helima croft, thank you very much for weighing in.
>> thank you. >> a little over 2.5 million people are expected to fly over the thanksgiving weekend let's get a look at what to expect from phil lebeau at chicago's o'hare airport phil >>. >> this is what the airlines are looking for, a smooth start to the thanksgiving weekend in terms of flying. this is what you would see on any wednesday morning. we're not seeing the long lines, no major delays around the country. a record number of travelers are expected this thanksgiving holiday weekend. airlines for america says approximately 3 million passengers will be flying today. the busiest day, however, that will be on sunday and the good news for the airlines, not just for thanksgiving but in the whole fourth quarter they're seeing strong demand for more people flying. >> you're getting a combination of tight supply and also the consumer that there hasn't been any hiccups.
the consumer has showed up to travel and we are looking at healthy revenue trends going forward. >> you know what else is helping the revenue trends for the airlines low jet fuel prices. they have moved considerably loyer and if that continues you should see strong numbers in the fourth quarter as you look at airline stocks, all are moving high er but this is where you see airline stocks move higher. >> have the trade fears abated for this group at all, phil? >> they were not hit terribly hard in terms of people worried about trade tensions and whether or not it would hurt international business that has never happened for the airlines so for the most part what's been weighing on this group this year has been oil
prices moving higher that has changed: that's helped the informsor se investor sentit comes to airline stocks. >> phil lebeau, one of the busiest shopping days is coming up and we'll talk to acy's jef gennette on black friday morning for a first on cnbc interview, 9:00 a.m. eastern time as we go to break, a check on how stocks are doing after the selloff the last couple days interesting reversal, deere has gone green but nvidia has gone red on decent volume for the day before thanksgivg. ckn montin
lately the sector falling 15% in the past three months. courtney reagan is live inside a new jersey kohl's store with a look at how one retailer is preparing. >> good morning, sara. investors are worrying if this retail strength has rub its course shares of target are down 17%. kohl's down 14%, best buy down about 6% but none of those companies or executives expressed concern about the holiday season on their earnings calls yesterday and that's where their attention is squarely focused, especially on the first big weekend. deloitte expets up to 70% of americans will shop at some point this weekend and just over 24 hours is really when kohl's is expected to see the busiest traffic of the entire year
they're going to keep their doors open to midnight on black friday inventory management becomes the most important part of the black friday preparation you have to have the right merchandise in the right locations both in the store and at the distribution centers. workers will get their first big test starting tomorrow now as retailers with stores lead more to buy online pickup, that inventory management comes more important kohl's promises most items will be available for pickup within an hour and during the holiday season, almost 15% of digital orders are fulfilled with their stores another thing that gets important during the holiday season is the web sites. web sites have to be battle tested, be able to handle the influx of traffic that comes in on a big day like thanksgiving, black friday, cyber monday i spoke to macy's ceo jeff gennette and he said they battle tested their web site and are trying hard to assure the checkout issues they had last
black friday won't happen again this year. back to you. >> the stock is up more than 3.5% but the namesake brand, same-store sales were down 7%. not doing as well as banana or old navy what's the problem why can't they just get a kardashian at gap? >> gap has been struggling same store sales is r down 7%. it's been happening for a while. it was addressed on the earnings call saying i'm aware of the issues but getting criticism today from some investors who say this has been a problem for a while. look at the changes other retailers have done. what's the main issue in frankly part of it has to do with fashi
fashion. as they tried to wean back that became a problem, not just gap but other brands as well within the company and south side so there is work to do and it remains to be seen if it can be do done. >> i think they need a celebrity, a tommy hilfiger or a gigi hadid which creates a halo effect over the brand. courtney, thank you. >> very busy let's get to another busy man rick santelli has the santelli exchange. >> thanks, david a lot of credit market vibrations but ten-year note yield at basically an eight year
high yield can you explain doing? >> we've seen back and forth being led by the credit space which is being led by the equity space. you have turmoil out there oil affected clos. then you have to a lot of back h we would have thought that ten years would have gapped through 3%, but you know what, we've got a lot of supply coming out and a lot of deficits. it doesn't look like either one of those are going to be addressed. so the market has kind of been in a range we really didn't break 305 yesterday and we're in a 305, 325 range for 10-years. >> what i find interesting is we've had historic short presence in the treasury space and now we have news over the last week or so that it's starting to unwind with that buying pressure in addition to the credit spreads and the hyg and lqdlqdtfs and equity volatility, one would
have thought that pushing down would have been so much more aggressive. >> rick, we've seen a steepening of the curve the fed is starting to blink you saw it last week by powell -- >> do you think that's a bad thing, andy? do you think blinking is a bad thing? >> not at all, rick. they need to blink they are looking too far as to where we've been and not looking as to where we're going. you can't drive looking in the rear-view mirror. >> this is really important, let me stop you there. so in the context of what they have done thus far since december of '15 and ending with three rate hikes in '18, maybe a fourth coming, have they gone too far as of this point right now? >> yes, they have, rick, but that's not going to stop them from raising on december 19th. we've got one more and then i think they pause i think it's going to be a dovish rate rise on december 19th they don't go in march and they may not go at all in 2019. >> you know, andy, the spread between 10s and bunds this year
alone has blown out 70 basis points, which means that's about a 35% move this year, year to date what is the downside, how is that me ttastisizing. >> there isn't a european bank that has capital worth talking about right now. >> so there is a downside to not raising rates. see, that's my point and i understand we're on opposite sides of this, but there are issues andy, we're out of time, i could talk to you for hours, buddy hope you and your family have a great thanksgiving. >> same to you. >> we'll have to leave it there. david, back to you. >> okay, thank you, rick santelli and now let's send it over to john n fortt for a look at whats
welcome back to "squawk on the street." stocks are hovering near their best levels of the morning following yesterday's broad sell-off consumer discretionary and communication services stocks are the best performers today, but let's drill down on another group making notable moves higher today and that's industrials. a broad group of names moving that sector to the upside, including airliners like american and southwest, along with equipment makers, caterpillar and deere which reported strong machinery sales last quarter finally, we are keeping a close eye on shares of boeing, trying to put an end to its longest losing streak since 2014 now i'll send it back downtown to you guys. >> all right, leslie, thank you. some of the movers today. coming up later on "the closing bell" one of the busiest travel days of the year. we'll take a look at online travel stocks like booking holdings and expedia very appropriately themed thanksgiving stock segment i will see you guys later and see if this rally keeps up
the final hour of trade has been very crazy. >> yes, indeed when we come back, we'll take a deep dive into the faang names dow still trying to erase its losses for the year. "squawk alley" starts in a ment so lionel, what does being able to trade 24/5 mean to you? well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all...
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