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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  November 28, 2018 5:00am-6:00am EST

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it is 5:00 a.m. in washington here's your top five at 5:00 another powell put-down. the president launching fresh attacks against the fed chief. will powell punch back gm stays in focus. trump threatening to cut electric car subsidies shares of salesforce popping in the premarket. and bitcoin is bouncing back this morning but can it last it's wednesday, november 28th, "worldwide exchange" begins
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right now. ♪ good morning good afternoon, good evening wherever in the world you may be watching, we're glad you're with us on this fine wednesday. thank you very much. i'm brian sullivan now we'll do something different today. we'll kick off this hour in asia that's where the market action was overnight. hong kong and shanghai up more than 1%. south korea, not a decline, but a lot of green on the screen the hang seng in hong kong the bigger gainer at 1.3%. one reason for that may be some upbeat comments coming out of our own east tech west conference a major chinese private equity fund manager saying they believe the u.s. trade war with china is political but that it is also only short-term. that optimism helping on this side of the traffic as well. dow futures are up slightly, not a big gain up about 60 points now it is early. we could see movement there.
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asia up overnight. futures up overnight maybe some rare positive comments coming from this trade fight we're in more on that and your money in a few inutes topping your news, president trump stepping up his attack on federal reserve chairman jerome powell let's get to tracie potts in washington with all the details on another powell put down >> exactly in fact the president tells the "washington post" that he's not even a little bit happy with jerome powell saying he's way off base on some things, blaming the fed for the volatility that we've seen in the markets and for what's happening at gm, for those plant closings president trump taking no personal responsibility for that saying he blames the federal reserve, their rates, their policies we could see another rate hike this month as a result of what's happening in the economy recession, president trump says
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he is not worried about that, but he's concerned about gm closing those plants, especially in ohio where he promised more jobs the president blaming gm's ceo for that saying he's disappointed that the united states bailed out general motors and now saying this is the thanks we're getting he is considering cutting some subsidies to gm, the government money supporting them may be going away >> big news there, tracie potts leading our coverage on this wednesday morning. thank you very much. a reminder that jerome powell will speak today at noon at the economic club in new york one wonders will powell punch back in off the cuff remarks we'll have full coverage today
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at noon. let's bring in the chief strategist from silver crest asset management the federal reserve matters to you and your clients what do you make of the president kind of going after the fed chief? >> presidents wanted the fed to ease usually they're usually not as loud about it as president trump is i don't think that will shape how the fed approaches policy. one thing that's happened recently is that because of the fall off in energy prices and a couple other factors, inflation is actually easing off it's a rational time to be concerned about inflation ramping up, but inflation has eased off recently i think that will ease some of the data-driven pressure on the fed to raise rates i've heard some commentary that says the president may be putting the fed in a box, that they'll have to raise rates in order to demonstrate they're
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independent. i really do think that as they have all along, that they will make a decision on the merits. >> you're doing a little game theory there, i like it basically they didn't want to raise rates but now they have to raise rates because the president says they shouldn't raise rates. >> you can game theory yourself to death with this president and this administration, but at the end of the day you have to look at fundamentals. the fundamentals will drive fed policy as they have all along. is there inflation pressure on the fed to raise rates so far the answer is not really. >> i was going to ask you, you read my mind what would you do if you were fed chief? would you raise rates again? >> the fed is in rate raising mode the question is how quickly. whether they'll be forced to move more quickly than they would like you know, it is rational at this stage of the business cycle to say inflation is a concern but it hasn't really become a concern that will push the fed
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to move in a direction they don't want to. >> outside of the federal reserve what are you and your clients most focused on now? >> equity valuations, which are at their lowest point in four years. there's a gloominess around the market that is not matched by the economic data which remains pretty strong. there are soft patches you can point to concerns that might become bigger concerns down the road. you know, we're not staring at a recession in the face right now. i think we have a market acting like that's the case one immediate thing is going into the g20 whether there will be a cease-fire between the u.s. and china on trade there are political motivations to have a cease-fire, not least of which is to give a reassurance to markets to look at that more positive data instead of worrying about what might happen >> so you have given us the bull
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case, valuations have come down. the economy is strong. that means valuations may be more attractive if you had to make the bear case, what are you worried about? >> the bear case is a death by a thousand cuts. it's not one thing that tips the u.s. economy into recession. it's trade it's weakening growth abroad it's the fact that at some point inflation is bound to pick up with unemployment where it is. so there are a number of things that could happen. brexit is on the horizon what shine chooses to do in terms of response to the trade war or response to a slowing economy, whether it chooses to continue to allow its currency to weaken. all of those things could add up to an equation that creates some serious headwinds. but we're not seeing that yet. >> a boxer doesn't have to go down when they have that one
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huge left hook to the side of the face you could do a hundred body blows and wear the boxer out that's what it feels like where we are now >> it will take time to gather enough momentum to change the direction of the economy what we're seeing now is an economy that is slowing but not turning negative the same thing is true with corporate earnings we won't see the great corporate earnings growth we saw this year that was boosted by a corporate tax cut, boosted by a surge in share buybacks, but we're also not looking at it turning negative either. so some of the negativity that we've seen in the market and the fact these valuations have come down so much over the past couple of months, that i think that's a bit overdone. at least given what we're seeing so far >> patrick, as always a pleasure
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to get your views. see you soon have a great day. the cloud, cars and chicken soup just another average morning on "worldwide exchange." let's get to frank holland with three big stocks that need to be on your radar. salesforce.com reporting better than expected results a strong beat on eps, demand for cloud products continuing. salesforce forecasting revenue for fiscal 2020 above estimates. analysts say it's the first time the company has done that in three years. speaking to jim cramer last night on "mad money" marc benioff said salesforce is in peak performance mode. >> we see hitting our big goal, which is 22 billion, $23 billio in revenue by fiscal year '22, and here we are giving fiscal year '20 guidance for the first time at 16 billion we're really excited salesforce remains the fastest
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growing enterprise software company of all time. that's incredible. >> salesforce shares are up more than 8.5% in premarket trading. sources say tesla's head of global security is out after 11 months on the job. jeff jones managed teams at the car factory in california and a battery plant. a whistle-blower alleged tesla hid the theft of raw materials from investors that stock up a half percent in premarket trading. campbell's soup is targeting the former head of pinnacle foods to be its next ceo mark claus led that company until it was bought by conagra the shares of that company are up almost three quarters of a percent in premarket >> soup is good investment, at least today. we are just getting started on a busy wednesday. up next will powell punch back the fed chief giving a major
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speech in new york today will he address trump's late st attack black friday may be over, but there's still serious spdi tenngo come, will be enough to save the stock market "worldwide exchange" carrying on after this place, the xfinity xfi gateway.
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and it's strengthened by xfi pods, which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. president trump stepping up his attacks on jay powell. the president telling the "washington post" he's not even
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a little happy picking powell as fed chief. let's bring in a guy who has an opinion on everything out there, bob, good to see you >> pleasure to see you >> should powell punch back? should jay powell make comments today to go after the president or take the body blow and walk off? >> i'm going to lunch with him in a few hours my view is -- >> trump or powell >> powell. i wrote a book several years ago that talked about relationships between fed chairmen and presidents over the years. i have found and most presidents have found that the wise course of action for the president is to say as little as possible about what the fed is doing and about the people on the federal reserve, open market committee or the board let them do their job. by in large the fed has been
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very, very credible and very, very effective over the years. the best thing is for presidents to do their business and let the fed do their usiness >> but that's not what's happening here >> it's not, but if he were to reflect a bit on how other presidents have handled this, he would come to the conclusion that's the best course of action for the country, the best course of action for the president and the fed is by in large independent and it was made independent by those who created it about 100 years ago because independence was considered critical to their ability to act effectively. >> what advice would you give to jay powell would you say punch back or move on >> say as little as you can and do your job effectively. jay is a credible guy in the financial markets. i think the financial markets would feel good about powell being given as much independence as he deserves which is total
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independence to run the fed the way he and other members of the fed believe it should be run we shouldn't forget that he is not the only one on the open market committee or on the board of the federal reserve system. there are regional governors, regional presidents and members of the board in washington and they make decisions collectively it's not just jay powell it's a number of people. jay is at top but others are working with him by in large it was meant to work that way with a number of people contributing to whatever outcomes there are on the open market committee or other things >> will the united states and china have a trade break through at the g20 meeting tomorrow? >> i hope so i was in china for ten days. the problem is that these tensions have been building over a period of time they're not helpful to china or the u.s. really. there's a lot of issues to deal
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with with respect to china tough negotiations does not necessarily require confrontation. that is, i think, something that can be avoided there needs to be a lot of conversation and a lot of negotiations, a lot of candid talk about what is going on with intellectual property and other things in order to reach agreements but avoiding a confrontation and escalating tariffs and other kinds of things can be, i think, and should be the right course of action. the u.s. can certainly candidly express views as it has done, but the escalating tariffs that we're seeing is probably not going to be good >> the president is coming at this clearly with the view that china needs us more than we need them from an economic perspective.
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do you agree with that who needs who more >> well, the -- it's certainly true that china is very dependant on our market for a number of things, more perhaps than we're dependent on the chinese market but the fact is that both sides would be and over time are going to be disrupted if you get into an escalating tariff battle or you get into major restrictions on investment. so china may be affected somewhat more than we just because it's somewhat more dependant on markets, but a lot of american companies are also dependent on intermediate goods from china there's a lot of sper interacti between chinese and american companies. i don't look for a break through, a dramatic break through in buenos aires, but i think there are ways of
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addressing this in a positive way, which is to say both leaders put their emphases on a process that addresses intellectual property issues, trade secrets issues, investment issues, working more effectively to resolve bilateral differences and dealing with issues in the world trade organization these are things that do deserve high level consideration and high level negotiations and genuine progress negotiations with an impact are important, breakthroughs are probably unlikely over one meeting at dinner in buenos aires. >> let's hope. the markets are a bit optimistic have a good lunch today with jerome powell. we'll cover it >> thank you. up next, playing politics. why one major chinese private equity firm thinks the trade war is strictly political. we're headed live to our own east tech west conference ahead.
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and a high stakes summit of a different kind what to expect from the g20 meeting more on atth when "worldwide more on atth when "worldwide exchange" comes right back $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online.
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back above 4,000, it's still up, 206 or about 5.5% to 3,981 earlier bitcoin was above 4,000, but just about a year ago it was at 20,000. it's been a rough ride let's switch gears we're starting to get some big headlines out of our own first ever east tech west conference taking place in china. easy for me to say deidre is live there what are some of the key headlines so far that have been taken away from the east tech west i will practice that >> you say that so well, brian good morning well, day two, a lot of the talk was focused on the u.s./china relationship ahead of the g20. here at least most companies and investors are focused on the long-term. there was a sense that a lot of the tit-for-tat rhetoric on trade and tariffs was just
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noise. blue stone asset management calling the trade war political and short-term we had a chance to talk to sequoia capital china partner and xing liu said they are looking through the noise. >> when we think about our investment themes, the consumption-driven economy, that's what china will eventually become. that's for sure to happen. the use of more technology across the different industries, that for sure will happen. so we will stay focused on what is sure to be happening and what may not change in the next few years, instead of what's changing >> now sequoia capital has had a monumental year. 1$100 billion in exits by is s a
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sequoia-backed entities. next year could be huge, big names in the 2019 pipeline include ant financial and didi but the landscape is expected to change in the future as masa son starts to look at chinese tech companies. >> it hasn't changed the landscape in china yet, but we think that the fund will come and become more active in the china market we look forward to working with them either on co-investments or competing with them. >> xing liu is confidence that sequoia will continue to attract the best chinese startups because they have a lot of experience on the ground here in china and sometimes it's not all about money. >> but sometimes it is all about money. we are the global leader in business news. how much has the trade fight been a topic, you're walking the
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halls, talking to people there, how much are they bringing this up with you? >> you know, they're bringing it up a lot everyone is talking about the upcoming meeting, but i have to say it's been brought up a lot on stage on the ground people want to talk about chinese technology. they want to talk about the new companies coming up, about what wechat is doing. what new function or new chinese start up has gone from zero to a billion dollar valuation in the span of a few months on stage this is the topic but on the ground this is just noise and they would prefer to talk about the chinese technology landscape and how that fits into the american landscape >> deidre bosa, thank you very much all right. still ahead, trading in and investing around the g20 meeting. what all of you need to know ahead of this weekend's high
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stakes summit in buenos aires. we have a lunch -- look at that we have a lunch alert for you. if you're on the radio, this is a burger king sandwich that has so much cheese it can only be described as g hg good news. and trust it never fell into the wrong hands. ♪ ♪ this is a shipment transferred two hundred times, transparently tracked from port to port. this is the ibm blockchain, built for smarter business. built to run on the ibm cloud.
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president trump stepping up
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his attacks on the fed chief will jerome powell respond when he gives a major speech later today. countdown to g20 everything that needs to be on your radar ahead of a high stakes summit in buenos aires. and on the record, bmw's ceo talking everything from luxury cars to the trade war. we'll bring you his comments as "worldwide exchange" fires up right now. ♪ welcome back good morning thanks for being with us on cnbc i'm brian sullivan we're always glad you're with us on "worldwide exchange." let's get a check on the top headlines outside of the world of money and business, phillip mena is in new york with those good morning for the first time ever mississippi has voted to send a woman to the senate. cindy hyde-smith is expected to
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beat democratic challenger mike espy in a runoff election. earlier this month hyde-smith sparked a firestorm after saying she would attend a public hanging. this morning secretary of state mike pompeo and jim mattis are set to testify before the senate on the latest developments with saudi arabia in the wake of jamal khashoggi's killing. khashoggi's deathhas led several lawmakers to criticize president trump's embrace of saudi arabia but in a new "wall street journal" op-ed secretary pompeo argues the u.s./saudi alliance is vital and a powerful force of stability in the middle east in regards to khashoggi's death he said the u.s. will consider further punitive measures if more facts come to life. it's becoming beginning tot like christmas in new york the 86th annual tree lights is
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tonight. armed guards will be present and security officers will screen those attending. the star-studded lineup of pen performers will be rocking around the christmas tree. you can catch it tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern back to you. >> there's a ten spot in it if you climb that tree an when they turn on the lights, ten bucks. all yours. don't tempt me with a good time. >> there he goes, up the tree. stock futures are up, not a lot. up about 60 points right now on the dow. asia is where the action was overnight. a lot of fwregreen there on the screen you heard a lot of comments saying there's a political trade fight, but it should be short-lived. asian markets are up
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staying with asia, investors closely eyeing this weekend's g20 summit president trump and chinese president xi jinping are expected to meet to discuss all things trade how can you trade that high stakes sitdown seema mody has more on the trade on trade >> exactly this g20 meeting is being closely watched by investors the meeting between president trump and chinese president xi will command investor attention. expectations have been brought down by comments from president trump and larry kudlow, but everbright security sees those comments as posturing and expects a deal to be carved out by the two leaders the shanghai has dramatically underperformed the s&p 500 in 2018, down about 20% since trade tensions escalated in the second quarter. they say an agreement could push stocks up there 4% to 5%
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hsbc says it is difficult to see a deal being struck that would put all traden it shuns to rest. a postponement could at least provide more time for negotiation, though experts there do not expect clarity to emerge for many more months. bleakly advisory group says any thought that that 25% tariff will be imposed on january will likely put a lid on u.s. stocks as well. >> you know great deals tend to be made over dinner, maybe a steak and a good glass ofimistis you're speaking with realistic that something will get done >> i think the idea here is this will be a high-level agreement, an agreement to negotiate further at some point in 2019, but no substance behind the deal if you look at the juncker/trump
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meeting, a high level agreement without detail that's what most investors expect to happen this weekend as well >> i bet tim seymour that you would get a jean-claude juncker reference in there let's bring in tim seymour >> i don't know what to do now, i'm here exiled at 30 rock, let's figure this out. >> let's make good television, how about this, how optimistic are you that we and china will make some kind of a market moving deal or statement at the g20? >> i think there will be a statement that will talk of a constructive opportunity to work together a material outcome that addresses trade but more importantly the tech and the intellectual property and the control of the 21st century of the internet, et cetera and
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cyber, that's not something you will get what have markets priced in is what it comes down to it's interesting that the rest of the world but notably emerging markets and some of the mega cap tech names in china have rallied significantly over the last couple of weeks, even during an environment where the headlines between mr. kudlow, mr. trump, you name it, they've been nothing but erratic >> okay. what's your point? if the markets have priced in all known information, which is what they're supposed to do, then what are the markets signaling? what is the surprise either way then, tim, that could move markets up or down >> i think we overshot in the case of a lot of the rest of the world. >> overshot to the down side for china? >> yes, i think we have. i think what you've seen is since markets bottomed on october 4th roughly for emerging
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markets against the quite, it's ban relative value trade, because think about the performance we had in the united states versus every other country in the world effectively. what we had in the last month and a half is the rest of the world rallying back. we don't have enough time in this segment to get into the setup for earnings in 2019, but the reality is that the s&p will struggle to do 7% earnings growth the rest of the world priced in significant amount of fall off on the global economy, and what we're seeing is some reconciliation in that and the bottom line is if they agree they can stay at 10% tariff between now and into next year because there's enough constructive dialogue to work together that might be enough for markets. that's notterial change. the status change is driving markets and i don't think that will change in terms of where we are on tariffs
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>> would you be a buyer of large cap chinese stocks now >> to get a little technical here, the 50-day moving average has served as a barrier markets have not been able to get through since january 26th you've seen some of the mega cap china tech names, whether it's alibaba, tencent, these stocks broke nicely through the 50 day and you have a rally across asia this morning i think you're getting a signal that the rest of the mega cap chinese tech names are starting to rally, but also look at russia rallying 5% or 6% against the u.s. during a time when oil has been down. brazil continues to rally. these places that we're seeing left for dead are actually not only outperforming but rallying back nicely. >> you said 50-day moving average at 5:37 a.m. eastern time >> i'm speaking in tongues possibly i hope that was clear.
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>> tim seymour, thank you. >> all right let's find out what else you will be talking about today. time for the top trending stories. frank holland, you think they'll give us a break at this hour we can get away with anything. >> you deserve it. also your phone went off >> it went off automatically when i said tim's name. >> they're always listening. do you have your holiday decorations up yet >> no. >> holiday traffic took on new meaning in one town in england because someone's giant lawn santa broke free of its moorings it blocked traffic in both directions it was eventually contained and brought back to its home >> what size home would have that size santa? if you're on the radio, this santa is about 20 feet tall, 15
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feet tall. >> we'i'm from philadelphia, we have row houses, that would block the house. a mass serve australian steer is trending on twitter his name is nickers. he's over six feet tall at the shoulder he's almost as tall as michael jordan and weighs more than 3,000 pounds he is so big he can't fit through the slaughterhouse doors. so now, because of that, he will live out his entire life at home on the farm. according to this story he would make about 4,000 burgers if he could actually get through the doors. get this, he also replaces big moo as the biggest steer in australia. >> how tall are you? >> about 6'4". >> that cow at the holders is our height >> yeah. >> i find that story an awesome segw segue to the next story. they're related in some way. >> there's a theme you can't have nickers, but you can still get your burger fix if
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you live in wisconsin. you can get extra extra cheese to the third power in honor of the packers and their self-styled cheese head fans, some burger kings will offer the green bay whopper for a limited time it has eight slices of cheese. are you considering? >> you know, i'm a part-time resident of wisconsin. i'm in green bay all the time. i would hit this, just to have a built once not sure you could do that every day. >> there was concern that all the cheese might not be melted but it's burger king you can have it your way so you can get them melted >> that's a sandwich if you're up there, you have to go to clyde's and get a big c burger >> what an endorsement get it now >> we'll give it a try maybe they can send us one >> i wish. up next, bmw on the record
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the carmaker speaking out on all things trade his comments for the l.a. auto show are next. first a check of the premarket winners and losers apple is up about a percent. home depot and visa also moving higher today
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5:44 here on the east coast.
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welcome back stock futures indicating a pop we're seeing only strength 80 points up on the dow. s&p and nasdaq are higher. let's switch gears the l.a. auto show under way out on the west coast. last night cnbc was able to catch up with bmw's ceo talking everything about the luxury car market and the trade war fight >> hi, guys. i'm here at the l.a. auto how. take off the tarp and show us the new x7 luxury suv market is a tough market why do we need another one >> the x7 is a world premiere today, it will be with us in march of next year it will be with us for years
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not only are deerls wadealers wo that car, but so are customers >> that car is $70,000, it's a rich ticket, but the suv market is slowing down right now, isn't it >> the suv market is growing on the premium side and the non-premium side with the x7 it's a vehicle we've been waiting for desperately >> we're three months into the additional tariffs on china. that clearly affects what happens in spartansburg. have you noticed a slowdown in shipments over to china? >> spartansburg is concentrating on the x models, we have not seen one single unit drop since the tariffs have been introduced >> just to china or overall? >> overall but specifically with china. >> with china not slowing down the other question people have when they look at german
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automakers, what might happen in terms of potential tariffs that the u.s. might slap on vehicles being imported from ermany any concerns that that might be too much and that might push some customers away from ordering a bmw >> number one, i can only speak for my knowledge or my part of the knowledge here what i can say on behalf of bmw, bmw is 100% convinced, that's also the opinion of having free tariffs, so no taxes on both sides. >> but if there is, do you sense the customer out there will say i'm not paying an additional 10% or 15% >> i would like not to speculate about tariffs. if the tariffs come, we will react as we all have to react. i don't think the consumer will react immediately. >> one last question the market overall, as you look at 2019, what are you expecting? >> let me answer in 2019 with
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2018 we experienced last year since november in l.a. 12 months of growth in the year 2019 we expect a record year. >> a record rear for 2019. the president and ceo of bmw north america joining us here at the l.a. auto show back to you. >> the x7. all right. for more on phil's interview, check out the full interview on cnbc.com time to find out what's coming up on "squawk box." andrew ross sorkin, what is coming up? >> what is coming up you know what is coming up >> nope. >> david sazlov and tiger woods. >> tiger woods is on the show? >> there you go. can you hear me? >> yeah. >> have i just stopped the tape for you? that's basically the end that is all i got for you. >> that's a lot. >> you know what i want to talk about with you what will happen this friday
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i hear people talking about -- you're mr. opec. people are talking about this g20 thing as the real opec, because you will have putin there, mbs, i want to know what you think will happen with oil this weekend >> don't say it's the real opec, because we're goingto austria next week. i want to make sure that trip means something. to your point i will say this, it's anextremely important g20 meeting, not just with the trade issue, you are correct that the president has been aggressive on opec however opec is less opecy because the friday after opec and russia and the saudis meet, that may be the real opec. it's all shifting. >> is anybody going to care about putin this weekend or mbs this within when xi jinping is the story? >> i think all global market investors should care. >> what do you think will happen at dinner with xi jinping on friday >> a lot of camera flashes >> that's it >> what do you think >> i don't know, my new view is
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you don't set all of thex peis expectation up without having a deal, but my worry is markets rally and then it's not real, then we'll realize it two, three days later and then the market will realize >> i think there's some optimism in your take andrew, see you in a few minutes. tiger woods at 7:20, big interview. powell under pressure. the president stepping up his attack on the fed chief. will powell punch back when he gives a major speech later today? we'll find out "worldwide exchange" will be right back
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the big focus today is on the federal reserve. there's no fed meeting but jay powell is speaking at the new york economic club at noon his speech comes after president trump launched new attacks on the fed. the president telling the
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"washington post" that he's not even a little happy about picking powell as chief. lindsay joins us on set. what do you make of this these attacks on the fed chair >> fiscal policymakers typically don't comment on monetary policy, but that decorum has been thrown out on both sides. the president is more personal in his attacks but more broadly talking about the fed raising rates too fast the fed also has been vocal and critical of fiscal policy pointing to tax policy, trade, rising budget deficits as large downside risks for the economy there have been specific attacks in focus on both sides >> i know the fed is theoretically independent, but peer pressure matters. if matters if you're 14 or whatever you studied jay powell, will he be swayed at all on his thinking
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on rates >> absolutely not. i will give the fed credit to say they're professionals, intelligent, smart, well-trained economists they know what they're doing they'll focus on the data. that will be driving their policy decisions they will not be swayed by political comments from the president or any other political figure >> it's almost december 2018 by mid 2020 will the u.s. economy be in recession? >> i think the probability of recession pushes north of 50% as we look out to 2020. >> could be 51 or 99 >> i think it's closer to 60%, 65%. >> so still a good chance we're not. >> glass half full, yes. but in our official forecasts we see growth slowing dramatically in 2019 with the risk of recession coming into play in the first half of 2020 above 50%, and closer to 60%,
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65%. >> i know you like charts. here's a good chart. if you're on the radio i apologize. we have a 12-year chart of consumer confidence. you put out a note about the shopper. we're getting this data that is mixed. some things may be weaker over black friday, but others say shopping has shifted our time frame when we shop doesn't matter like it used to consumer confidence is still super high >> historically consumer confidence gave us a good indication of what shoppers are doing. now that relationship has broken down confidence is still high, but we look at discretionary purchases, a lot of volatility. that volatility not translating into the confidence figures. confidence is still high when we look at august and september, what happened to spending >> what did happen >> back-to-back months of negative spending.
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consumers are more concerned about financial footing than they're letting on >> will be a good holiday shopping season? >> it will be a modest shopping season i think consumers were o out spending like gang busters on the spinternet, but when we look at traffic -- >> you owe me a dollar for saying signer monday y cybermonday time for your wednesday rbi. today it's about cars and china. you know president trump is frustrated about both. but the three things you may not know about the story, gm has sold more cars every year in china than anywhere else, 4 million over the last six years 2. % of ford's cars sold in china are imported three, there's a car nearly named after our president. in china you can buy that car. the trumpchi gs4 they want to bring it to america
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but they're rethinking the name. they're not sure if the vehicle will sell here right now true, random, and interesting. have a great day "squawk box" is next move to the enterprise-grade cloud that's built to handle all your apps. ♪ ♪ the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business.
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good morning trump takes on jerome powell again blaming him for the market selloff and gm's job cuts. we have the president's comments. and the president's tweets about gm moving the automaker's stock. we'll show you how wall street reacted to the criticism of mary barra. and bitcoin making a comeback this mornmorning. we'll have a live interview with jim breyer becky will love this interview it's wednesday, november 28, 2018 "squawk box" begins rite now
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♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. our best host is j.j. kinahan from td ameritrade thank you for being here >> my pleasure. things are indicated up with the dow futures up by 89 points. s&p futures indicated up by 9. the nasdaq up by 34. at this point, you are looking at the potential for stocks to erase their declines that they've seen for november. already you have the s&p 500 and the nasdaq back in positive territory for 2018 with the gains

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