tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 30, 2018 9:00am-11:00am EST
good shape, too, the stock market and the economy stock market is coming down and as well as valuation we are not in cycle. >> you got 15 seconds. >> productivity is improving a lot this year. >> barry, thank you so much for being with us. always a pleasure. folks right now we have some breaking news from the feds. steve liesman joining us on "squawk. john williams will say a speech this morning, the federal reserve is not far from the neutral rate it is not far from the current level of the funds rate. he says that the neutral rate is due to demographics and productivity and demand. now you got all three on the federal reserve of the big three and the vice chair and vice
chair. all singing essentially from the same team about current fundraisers not being fall from the neutral rate of course, he did not think the rates have to go up december. he thinks it is more of a wait and see approach >> back to you guys, "squawk on the street" begins right about now. >> that does it for us have a great weekend right now it is time for "squawk on the street good morning on "squawk on the street," i am david faber with jim cramer. carl quintanilla has the day off. >> good morning. closing only a few hours from now, generally in the negative
territory for the major indices in europe. there it is. 3.017. crude oil continues to be trading just above the $50 level. >> where there will be a lot of lay offs and cpi could go negative >> let's start with our road map. the markets are closing out the month. the dow and s&p, modest gains after a suffering of what waycrowas a poor october watching the trade tea leaves, that's what we are doing, the g-20 summit are underway investments are waiting for the development of the high stakes trades talk. we are keeping a close eye on shares of marriott, they are down the hotel giant disclosing a massive data breach. could affect up to 500 million
people this occurred prior to ownership. let's get to our last trading session of the month, that's today. investors keeping an eye on the summit president trump is in mexico and canada, signing the new trade deal that they negotiated a few weeks back >> you can see them there, jim, getting ready to sign what's nafta 2.0. >> okay, i can tell you that would have been unthinkable. it is positive it does very good in terms of raising wages. it is substitute and not being talked about >> very interesting, is it >> yeah. >> it is many say it was quite similar to what nafta was >> you know it is good >> it is good for america workers. i think it matters very much
david, it is over shadowed why what's going to happen with the summit and g-20. >> people buy into that deal >> they do >> he's a great sales man. what would you make of lighthizer's comment >> the success is the president -- you know what we'll give you some time what's interesting is i deal with a lot of companies that did not have tough supply chains in china. they need some time to go to vietnam or cambodia. it is a win for american business if they go 10 to 25, no t great but give them a holding period so our company can escape from there i think they'll be cordial enough peter navarro is at the dinner
table. i have known him for years and he's a hard liner. when you speak about peter, he always talks about the 20-25 world dominance, did you have any plan that's the belt and road these are the things that you have to watch what vice president pence is saying. he's talking about the containment of china >> you brought it up >> the largest context and i think it does deserve not just about number and it is about world power. >> it is a story that i first follow, its got to be seven or eight years ago at this point. it calms down a lot after xi and obama reached an agreement is back >> yes, and both the journal and the "times" reported cypress by the chinese against u.s. corporations >> yes >> it is a board lefvel issue.
right now where at 7 or 8 or 9 years ago it was not much. >> look, it is north korea and it is russia but it is really china. china is an enemy. this is not harvard verses yale. people think it is >> if you paint them in that fashion, you seem to be laying the ground works are they truly our enemy >> that's not a good thing >> well, for stocks? no some of us think it is right i can't change my position i work with larry kudlow for three years. >> my father's business is globalization and i am deeply affected by it i come back and say let's understand >> benefit is a hedge fund manager? >> my father is working for the
chine chinese. >> there are obvious benefits. >> there are use benefits for the people who can buy a suit that could not otherwise because they went to walmart >> do you think we would be better off if we had no trade with china >> no. i went fair trade with china and not free trade we would be admitted and stair way at college david, we admitted them because we thought it would make them democratic but instead they're becoming more -- >> navarro is saying what many people are saying in political circles which is these guys have become hard line you know they have concentration camps for people who don't their religion >> democracy was doing a better job than we are. >> democracy
>> it is a totalitarian state. >> if they were doing a better job than the u.s. was and competing fairly, would we still not sit with them. >> david, they want regime change >> here? >> we want regime change there for haven's sakes. >> they are not going to get it. >> that's what i heard about east germany >> have y'all been to germany, it is dynamite >> let's come back to the market and what we can expect as people try to understand what can happen your expectations for not much progress and by lightizer's
comment. it is a dogmatic issue who's not about trade. it is about rolling back to the belt it is about the end of the 2025 plan david, no one has taught me more of the intellectual property than you >> we should end it on the note that you have done on the best >> it frightens me >> somebody else followed the story closely in benois aires. i am not sure if that's going to be an issue at the table when they sit down for dinner or ot >> the president talks a lot about chinese technology theft and out right theft. you see the u.s. department of justice cracking down on a number of chinese everies afford
including the arrest of one agent in europe. that is hopping right now and fascinating to watch here at buenos aires, the president just put out, the president and vladimir putin will have a meeting. president trump announced on twitter that he'll cancel his meeting with vladimir putin because of the russian naval activity, the president suggesting that he's protest that the russian side says there is going to be an i mpromptu the schedule is a little bit of influx here. we just saw as you guys have been talking about of the signing from the u.s. trade agreement with canada and mexico >> here in buenos aires signing those deals.
the president made sure to emphasize the benefits here to american autoworkers here is what he said >> under the u.s. embassy, at least 75% of our automobiles content must be manufactured in north america. 40 to 45% of automobile must be manufactured by north american, high wage labor in order to gain for our markets. this will help stop jobs from going overseas and it will bring back autojobs that have already left many jobs are planning to come back >> then we saw that interesting moment with justin trudeau, the prime minister of canada who did not use the same term to describe this treaty >> the president called i it -- justin called it the new free trade agreement >> president trump wants to get away from trudeau and taking the opportunity to remove some of
those steels and aluminum tariffs. >> the recent plant closures by again motors which affected thousands of canadian workers and their families we'll stand up for our workers and fight for their families and community. donald, it is all the reason why we need to keep working to remove the tariffs on steel and aluminum between our countries >> david, a lot of moving parts here in buenos aires one of the things we'll be watching is angela merkel. it seems to me that had to turn around with her flight she's going to fly commercial from spain to try to get here. a lot of moving pieces here and a lot of confusion and a lot of high stakes economic diplomacy as well. >> we'll be there watching
closely for us because for us and so many people who follow e us the key is that dinner as well eam eamon javers, thank you. >> it is great number, and not great number from vm ware. >> that was right. >> it is called the a-block. this is actually right >> i can't believe we have gotten to this point what happens in that meeting is more important than what happens with the momentum in debt which is driving a lot of things >> it isthere is a great piece bloomberg about it the goldman investigation or the mare rriott hack >> we are absolutely right for covering it was getting pushed to the side to a certain extent if it goes a ride, it goes down a bad path, we'll be sitting
here on monday talking about okay, what is the economic ramifications for 25%? >> i hate to do this to president xi but you are fired >> when we come back, we'll talk about marriott >> disposing what's a massive data breach saying of hundreds of thousands, hundreds of billions of guests that may have been affected. that news is weighing on the stock. another lock of the future and about 60-minute before we hit the open a lot more "squawk on the street" coming up next
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. shares of marriott are moving lower, down by 5% of a massive data breach. the hotel chain revealing hackers had access to the star wood brand since 2014. potentially access of variety personal data and in some cases that may have included payments and passport information the company says 500 million guests may have been affected. marriott, acquisition of star
wood, it was announced in 2017 and completed. marriott's ceo, sorenson, we deeply regret this incident happened we fell short. we can remember yahoo and equifax where the breach was drip, drip, drip they knew it long before the first sign was in september and they brought in forensic people to help start doing it and they realized they had a problem. the board was involved from what i understand and they move quickly. to let people know they got a website up. they're using a big number
purposely hoping to come down from it as oppose to what has been the case where the number keeps ongoing up >> well, i don't think -- he's a terrific guy and star wood i think people are going to be grip by paralysis. if you look at the trends of aldi, the trend goes down really bad. you buy because america has short memory of who's hacked and why. >> it is the new normal. >> you have to expect that's going to be the case you certainly hope you are not the identity of theft. >> when you have these, you have
a crisis of confidence >> we are talking about a company with 67 under property 1 point quarter million wombs. >> they were fighting with china, remember? and how they end up paying a lot more with results. >> chairman wu is being held some where back in china here or maybe just in jail >> they have your e-mail and passport >> it makes me wonder whether the chinese are trying to figure things out who knows the total speculation. >> they have it and now they're selling it to people >> i don't know who's got it >> this is apart of life now but corporations do seem to be
getting better and learning the lessons of the past in terms of letting us know everything they possibly can as soon as they can. we'll see if marriott is a good test case. >> pafort net understanding wha they can and can't get cisco. i find it to be daunting and my wife spend an hour and a half clicking on the wrong link they have everything they have to change everything >> we got so many other things to talk about this morning in 'lrms of stocks. wel get to our "mad dash" and opening bell after this.
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six minutes before we get started on trading here on the last section of the month. >> wow >> time for "mad dash," workday a favorite of yours. >> you know well -- this is acceleration in reserve new growth, human capital management this is the best quarter of amazing report last night. vmware, we talked about it what a quarter fabulous combination of analytics and cyber security i like palo alto a little more, controversial and firewall i thought hp was fine. game stop. what a night day that we'll be
talking. >> we do have our time around the opening bell, when it comes to workday, what was driving this >> a bunch of giant contract signs. i don't know if they ever used it it saves a lot of money for people that's the key thing human capital. he's winning and i think a lot of business in new york, s&p, most importantly, i am proud of these companies. we should very proud these are the great ones to celebrate, vm ware, workday, taking over. >> okay, on the other side we'll talk about some companies not quite having a good time whether it is goldman sachs or ge. although dell and hp is also strong >> we'll talk about all of them when we come back. >> i like hp
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capitol of the world it is friday opening bell will ring in a minute and 20 seconds. this guy does not need another balance in his step. what are you watching this morning of the way things are going to trade and sentiment beyond the macro issue >> oh, okay, you got to oil back down again the market, when ever oil is down, hedge funds are saying okay, things are weaker. sell the industrials if they are going higher and retailers people have to look at the company case by case if you are on the vm ware, call, i must buy amazon services or workday, wow, i don't know if i should be on oracle. so it is individuals
>> here at the nyc, we are about five seconds away from the opening bell take a look at the exchange. >> very interesting because brick and mortar was not good. shopping centers are doing better i wish that's a great thing to do with the longer bell. david, the opener shopping centers, the strip malls have done quite well because they are good for the planet of fitness in the world and good to pull up to do brick and mortar when you order things online. >> right >> si-bone on the other side of the board of the opening bell, i want to get it in. >> where do you want to start? downgrade, goldman sachs, what
will be the liability? >> it has been a month of worse performer for months it is down goldman is down 13.5% for november >> i don't know how to read it it is a $6 million transaction i do feel very strongly that these issues will never be hot again or goldman has the capital obviously. goldman has been silent. silent can get through selling i didn't think that would be the case because i would never thought it will be the slowest multiples since it is the hardest play to get a job at i have been wrong. i got to own it. >> with that said, would you sell it here >> no. i think what will happen is they'll all get and throw people under the bus as a failure to supervise and they'll see how high it goes, the current ceo
hatd nothing to had nothing to do with it. >> you can't make anything easier sort of figuring out your strategy and focusing on what you want and you have this enormous distraction >> you get good lawyers and you get proactive and you say what would you like us to do. >> they'll have a small committee of board of directors that'll hire their own lawyers and look into this that committee will be the committee that negotiates with justice and with sec to figure out who whahas to go which is te company is going go. the doctor of the justice department anderson is to not wipe out companies that's why i say don't sell it they're defenseless and their quiet nature is what their lawyers say have to do >> you look at it, and the thing
has lost a lot more than that. >> they're $100 billion in capital. they have been reluctant to talk anything you say can be used against you. >> yes >> i think they are being smart. in the end, people are panicking. this is a downgrade ahead of sellers. that's not value added to me >> and i do think that solomon is doing everything he can it is the board. we want to know who's in the committee and what the committee is going to decide >> do remember worldcom >> yes, absolutely >> can you tell people what happened to worldcom >> it is billion dollar fraud company and it went out of business >> it is operating at a fine
firm where there were not controls isolate who was involved and who failed to suppervise and you ban them for life. >> i am familiar with this situation. >> we are down 25% for the year and now the market value ils well below morgan stanley and i go back and forth. >> the justice department, we have to get to ge which is going to be painful enough story for investors as it is ge is down by the way for the month just so people know. 21 plus percent and today again. here is the wall street journal story, talking about something we spend a lot of time talking about. how did the company so misread the market and the long-term care policies that it somehow kept on its books when it actually sold and sold other things that's associated with
them and kept those. was there potentially a desire to deseed. here is one employee quoted by the journal. i would not say what i saw is smoked said a former employee at the company finance at ge capital who left in 2016 i did not want to be there when there was smoke. >> this person did speak to sec investigators this summer. >> david, i felt -- i am not going to defend ge i was involved and i thoeold thm it is going to be a horrible problem. >> you did bring it up >> many wonder how you can sold up $15 billion >> everybody and warren buffett is under estimated >> everyone makes mistake. >> they were stupid.
>> by giving marks that were incorre incorrect. >> they are ill-advised. >> david -- >> it is longevity >> does larry culp have enough in mhiss plate to get power. >> it is going to the aerospace division >> really, up to aviation? >> i love his stuff, steph, tusa he's got to deal with the investigation and the if cc and powell >> ge has denied allegations of fraud made in shareholder lawsuit and it is cop raoperati with the government. >> this is jp morgan and they're
talking about greater and expected mix impact in 2019. deutsche bank, listen, the good news here is they're not going to have a credit crisise the piece by jp morgan is what we thought is a fabulous cash flow generator and it may not be as great as what we thought. that's a very important division for both governments >> it will be interesting to watch them compete against what hayes says it is going to be a focused utx when it is separated out. that's years from now. david, pvh came on last night is disappointing. how do we know it is disappointing? he said he would fix it. i think people are saying okay,
let's give him the benefit of the doubt and this is really good this could be like lululemon and they missed it pbh is not down. >> let's take a listen what he had to say ability tariout taris well manny chiroco. >> the unfortunate thing about this is who's going to be hurt it is consumers. that balance and how we try to do that intelligently i think some lead time would help in that whole situation hopefully that situation resolves >> right, everybody wants it to resolve. they'll be dealing with having to raise price >> yeah, i think that's yes in what you were talking about at the top of the show. are tariffs good verses trying to stop them by starving them of the mumboney by -- that's how i
know of the 2025 plan. we got to go back to october 4th, to understand the true gravity of what the chinese is trying to do cheaper goods which is the goodness of no tariffs >> it is without a doubt, i look at the clock and i think about how many names do i want to go through with you, jim in whether it is at&t or dell, vmware or a few. i want to start with facebook, too. at&t, i will start there they had an analyst meeting yesterday, it is after the bell. this was the reaction we are seeing now >> because it was a great talk, great conference >> yeah, listen, any excess cash flow is going towards paying down debt. a focus of investors as you may imagine given the massive debt
load at the company. the number is the number what's important is how much cash flow you are generating to pay down debt and interests on that >> you are the expert on hulu. i believe we are talking about it on my team. i got to ask david, hulu is a money looser. >> if they sell the 10%, they can get more than that >> yeah,st unclear where you value it >> disney is going to be at 60% and at&t owns the other 10%. >> one of the other questions, the marketplace, what is it going to look like hgt will be in the marketplace with a number of different streams options. hulu is out there with it. direct tv is its own ott platform >> right disney is coming with its direct
consumers a year from now. >> it is going to be quiet >> the amazon fire stick, is that the way you are going to be watching all these >> possibly. so there is not this kind o of -- i wonder if you put it all together if it is more than your cable. >> how many do you want.n netflix did not consider aus to be strong. >> they talked about hbo and all the animes and everything else they have there. although malone says they don't have -- netflix is still at 50% this year. >> hayes always says competition is clear for him he always makes that point for disney and now he's facing disney and at&t.
>> they have a reputation when shows are cancelled, what people are trying to weigh is a b"body guards," it is the most watched shows in the new year's. the money from disney, what happens? >> netflix had this deal >> i don't know -- what's going to happen? >> will we find that netflix got so many original contents that we don't care? >> that's the key >> staanky, who runs at&t media at this point. >> he's saying you will have a lot of major meeting companies who are now creating their own service and pulling all the content from the other platform overtime his feeling being we benefit because warner is in a position
to create it take a look at staanky yesterday. >> there is a number of deep players and who all stepped back and said it is a deeper mold l i think some of the incumbent is going to expect their libraries are going get a lot thinner. >> if they are ready for that. >> we talk enough of the parents coming into this why do you think that stock is a good -- >> within reason is they'll be praising prices. >> and you know what, i don't think they're afraid of pushing people off the radio, bring on the broad band >> i keep on hearing that. it is true, amazon would choose
dp philadelphia >> comcast makes it ease year to call things up >> it will get a higher multiples. when they have done these big deals, all chronicles and stocks go down and rally. this has been following the same patte pattern. >> amazon continues to be the winner of all of these things. >> tfacebook, you were coming down pretty hard on sandberg >>. >> you want them to take ak at sorrells. don't you find this to be outrage yois >> it is odd >> ill-advised >> he would not know the symbol for facebook that guy is not looked at or thought about a stock in a very, very long time >> charles saber was doing a
disinformation campaign. >> these are things that are not done in our country. >> the ceo sales force told me there are two kinds of companies in the silicon valley. joo compa companies that represent truth he's putting facebook in the ideal camp it is interesting that sandberg goes up against the enemy of facebook but the ceo, zuckerberg went after and he succeeded on instagram. >> cvs and moonves, i am seeing a lot of moon action >> pbs was no longer vofred.
>> who threw sandberg out of the bus. who's giving up all of this stuffer? >> i don't know that either. >> why don't we find out >> h somebody wants thiswomen discredited at a level >> if they actually succeed. >> it is not the ceo had anything to do with it >> they are doing nothing. they need to hooifr an outsiiree council. you need independent outside council to look into what happens. >> they clearly have not they have not done what i have said for 80 points >> at least jay powell did what i said he's edgy and a good guy >> our entire list before we get to bob vmware, dell had a good quarter. dell is going to be public again. they say it is worth 120 or 59
parse of of cash. they're adding leverage. they're talking about what $4.4 billion, sorry, $4 billion of debt from free cash flow. vm ware keeps on doing amazingly well >> back to the pc business with dell, it also had a strong quarter and stocks are not again this morning. >> in the end, it was in my quarter in a night where we had ex slee s explosi explosive. >> if you want to use the amazon cloud, you need him and amazon's web services is behind >> your retailer, your walmart, you don't want to fund the enemy which is amazon. you have to build out to the
legal system to get you what amazon has you need tabloid data and you need to analyze the data or you can go to adobe or microsoft that's another appliance in the end, amazon web services are cheaper and better than what you can craft. >> out habit the people had decided we can't be number three in web services. >> my problem with alphabet, they hired someone outside of the culture. >> dine green was the best there is she left the company >> i am told we have a tweet from the president that we'll get through. let's do that. there it is. just signed one of the most
important stray deals in u.s. world history. our couour counselors work together it is a bigger deal. it is an important deal. >> it is a very important deal >> because if it is unthinkable when you first try to think about the idea of how to get it to the next higher wages so it would be good for mexican workers at the same time and we would not be willing to send anything there trudeau had positive things to say. >> the president does not allow it to be known as acrimony >> president trump is set to arrive in a few minutes. investors are waiting for nye news and trade talks will take place into china
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the, is and, in morning, delta airlines under armour and americans. >> oil below 50 again. that's the cpi going negative. >> oil is the story. >> jay powell, congratulations doing that work. we have stop trading with jim coming up next with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.
you're taking a look at the venue for the main g20 meetings. the president expected to arrive in the near future not sure of exactly his schedule but he will be there. >> i'm going to be at the longshoreman when this stuff goes on. >> that's jim's new restaurant if you weren't aware of it bar san miguel, his old restaurant still if existence. >> salesforce is the stock. >> and every so often between that he does stop trading. >> well, salesforce is the key it started this whole week and as long as salesforce -- if salesforce takes out 145, it's going to bring more momentum to the group.
watch sayles forlesforce if you know how that will go. >> what's up on the show tonight. >> i am obsess bid autos so i have kar auction services. used cars hold the key for pricing to new cars given the fact that used cars are so good now. not like the old days. my daughter has a used car from the old days holy cow it's got an eight-track. >> i miss eight-track. see you this week end. >> have a good weekend. we have more coming up, stay with us on "squawk on the street."
you are looking at a live shot world leaders gathering in buenos aires, argentina, for the g20 summit we will take you there live, bring you full analysis. welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber along with mike santoli and david faber. we're live at post 9 from the new york stock exchange. carl and sara have the day off the dow is down but broader averages are both up as we get ready for the g20 summit to get under way. this morning president trump, along with the president of mexico and prime minister of canada signed a new trade
agreement, the u.s./mexico/canada agreement, otherwise known as the usmca trump tweeting about it moments ago. quote, just signed one of the most important and largest u.s. trade deals in history the united states, mexico, canada worked so well in crafting this great document the terrible nafta will soon be gone the usmca will be fantastic for all. and there's one of his trademark exclamation points the president also preparing for a key meeting with china's president xi jinping earlier u.s. trade represent robert lighthizer said he would be surprised if the dinner between the two leaders was not, quote, a success we have full team coverage and analysis eamon javers is live at buenos aires and on set michelle caruso cabrera. but let's start with eamon and see what he's hearing on the ground in buenos aires eamon? >> a couple items. a couple oddities. a short time ago we had a small
earthquake in buenos aires we could feel the tremor in our live shot position the word we're getting is it has no impact on the summit itself but something unsettling going on this morning. also unsettling. police in buenos aires say they have now found eight, what they're calling mo ing molotov l style devices where the protests here in buenos aires are going to be held they've confiscated him. no indication on what the intent was. but that's unsettling in a city where they are bracing for what could be significant protest activity through the day today and tomorrow meanwhile, we're still not clear on whether president trump and president vladimir putin of russia will speak to each other today. the kremlin has put out a statement saying they are expecting a pull-aside, casual meetings, what they're calling impromptu between president trump and president putin. i talked to white house
officials who aren't confirming that a white house official gave a statement to the pool reporters who are here saying they can't confirm and there's no scheduled pull-aside with putin and trump. the president arriving now at the site of the g20 summit itself and they're expecting to do the family photo. we'll see all of the world leaders gathered for that, what is always a momentous event. we're seeing some leaders walking out now, david. >> we're watching a picture. you can probably see it as well of the president entering the premises for the summit, the venue for the summit there walking in the key here, eamon, is going to be dinner tomorrow night that's sort of the key meeting, isn't it >> right absolutely and so much attention and speculation being give on the the role of peter navarro, the trump traded a visor, the most hawkish figure inside this trump administration
is he an official participant or is he just an attendee we're trying to get clarity on how we should read that from the white house's perspective. one administration official tells me it is a deliberate signal by the president to the chinese side that he has his most ferocious anti-china person right by his side as he goes into this dinner, display of strength, if you will, on the president's part going into that dinner an interesting development that he is here in buenos aires attending the dinner so perhaps posturing ahead of the dinner. perhaps each side jockeying for position a little bit. the president view this is as an enormous opportunity but also sees the political risks here of cutting a deal that might be too soon and too little. >> eamon, you stay there with us on set, cnbc contributor michelle caruso cabrera.
nice to see you. >> nice to see you. >> you know navarro. we know he's the attack dog, if you will, on china does it choiange the doingynamic >> i think by design, yes. even if president trump doesn't want to follow anything peter navarro wants to do again, as a tactic, you put him in the room. he's the toughest guy. i'd say he and lighthizer are equivalent in their hawkishness but peter is bellicose, belligerent, willing to offend and so you have him sitting there and people who describe him that way, by the way, that's a compliment the way they talk about that you have him there as a signal that we are not soft on this we're going to be tough so i think that's absolutely by design. >> that bigs tegs the question,l we get a cease-fire deal >> you open up a "wall street journal" and there's been a big leak about a possible deal is that because there's a
possible deal or is it also the possibility to say, look, we offered china this and we didn't get it but i think it sets up the market for an expectation, this clear format, okay, we'll have a cease-fire on tariffs for now and then in the meantime we will have a bigger, broader negotiation about the bigger issues which dog this relationship and which to many people appear irreconcilable. >> and it's the bigger issues that i think will be much more long term in terms of trying to map that out i mean, do we even get there >> me personally, i don't think so i think it's -- i describe them as irreconcilable differences because when i look at xi's vision for what he wants for china. the 2025, the return to state-led capitalism, i just don't see how that meshes with our desires for them to not steal intellectual property. i spent two days with a bunch of economists at the university of chicago. people who run belt-and-road
projects, former ambassadors, they are surprised about the obsession with intellectual property that was the understanding that was the way it was going to be you got market access to 1.4 billion people and you helped us grow our economy with know how and technology but it's been decades and the united states doesn't want to follow that social compact anymore it's too costly. >> and china has developed a great deal from the days when that was -- >> though they continuously say we are a poor country. >> i'm aware they have lots of poor people but they have lots of rich people. >> the second-largest economy in the world. >> without a doubt and growing quick quickly eamon, typically, a dinner like this is simply the end of what had been significant negotiations where both sides have reached agreement this is not the case they're going try to deal with things over dinner
how many people are going to be at that table and where will they be sitting? i know that strange but if navarro is next to xi jinping, i'm not sure what will happen. >> there's palace intrigue we haven't been told who is going to be sitting at the dinner other than the president and peter navarro and xi jinping so we're trying to get as much information as we can on that front. you're right, typically there would be a series of negotiations, conversations, official meetings, step by step from the lower ministerial level up to the senior leaders and then you would have the big dinner to wrap everything up and tie it up for vote that's not what's happening here the idea that they could come together over the course of dinner, no matter how many courses are served, and come to a deal while sitting there at the table seems farfetched but it's an engagement and there have been talks behind the scenes larry kudlow has emphasized several times over the past
couple of weeks that both sides are talking and in his view talking is better than not talking but we don't know what will transpire in an event where so many things are so intensely choreographed. this has a feeling of real anticipation because we don't know what will happen. >> eamon, thank you. we'll stay in close touch with you as we watch the -- who is that, michelle if. >> i think that's the president of argentina but it's a far away shot it would be natural for him. >> to be welcoming everybody michelle, let's get to the markets and see what this means. let's bring in the rbc capital markets head of strategy we're watching this thing, who knows what we'll get on saturday night and sunday morning very much unclear. a, do you have expectations and, b, can you go through areas as to what the equity markets will
do >> i'm expecting it to be a long weekend. a busy sunday but no real expectations on the outcome and i think that's how investors are thinking about it. we've had head fakes so i think people want to see the proof of what will come out of this before they act. >> bruce, unlike does the tax cut pass or not or does obamacare get repealed or not where it was seen as an up/down outcome, almost by necessity this is going to be a give and take ambiguous outcome so -- is it how the dollar reacts it won't just necessarily be a headline and on monday the market knows what to do. >> i think that is right it won't be any substance that will change the outcome of the
negotiations right now i think the market was concerned the fed was too aggressive and that tariffs and trade wars would cause the economy to slow and powell laid to rest, at least put aside for the time being the problem with the fed being too aggressive now we turn our attention to the trade deal in china and the best outcome for this weekend would be if china agrees to import more of our product and in return the administration decides to suspend or delay the tariff increases scheduled for january. that would be the best outcome for the markets. the good news is that expectations are low and any kind of forward movement would be a plus for the markets. >> do 2019 earnings expectations and thus stock valuations hinge
on this plemeeting between the largest economies of the world >> i think this matters. i wouldn't say earnings hinge on the outcome. if we get relief on the tariff side that will inject more certainty in the business community. it will have the potential to relieve pressures we've seen from commodity costs but i don't think it fixes everything. you have to go back and look at what companies were complaining about in this last reporting season commodity costs were a lot of it, tariff uncertainty was a lot but the number one issue we've seen has been wages and labor. that won't get fixed regardless of what happens. >> commodity costs should be rolling over to a large degree, right? >> that was number two on the list so i think that helps. it's a step in the right direction but the idea this will fix every problem we had on the corporate profitability front isn't there. helps but doesn't solve everything. >> oil a feature again today
what does it mean? does it reflect an expectation of a slowdown and/or should it be viewed as a good thing for the american consumer? >>. >> the plunge in oil prices, we're down 30% in the last month or so and that's a reflection of the global economy and not just the u.s. the global economy looks to us like they're on the cusp of a recession so that is what is being reflected in the oil markets. in terms of the u.s. we're not convinced the probable peak in gdp growth was in the second quarter along with a peak in the rate of growth for earnings so if that is not fully priced in i would expect after all the noise subsides from the trade negotiations, the market is vulnerable next year early to further decline. but i think also that would set up a real strong market and a
resumption the secular bull market later in 2019. >> it's the last trading day of november the second-worst performing seconder in the s&p behind energy is tech you went underweight on tech in may and took heat for it you sticking to that >> we went back -- underweight back in april and reiterated in the september when they broke the two seconders up we're keeping our eyes open on this we want to get involved in sectors that have been dislocated when i go through the data -- and that's what you have to do when you see a sector like this, i don't see a washout yet. the positioning is coming down, there are too many people defending the sector. >> we have president trump walking out right now as this summit continues to get under way here arriving at the g20 summit venue. >> pomp and ceremony. >> everybody saying hellos.
>> >> and a lot of foreign ministers. christine lagarde. >> just we get past whatever comes out of this weekend. how are things set up for 2019 you're stilling with decelerating earnings. >> we got good news from the fed the other day. when we look at multiple contraction, a lot of times you see the trough multiple after the fed stops so the market will be let's look at how much damage was done that's one issue we have to deal with. >> lori, thank you bruce, thanks to you as well. >> michelle, before we bring in our next guest, i want to get your thoughts because we talk a lot about the federer has us is trade and what the markets are watching more closely. the two are really to a certain
extent intertwined. >> if you're jay powell and you have to start to think about the implications of what would happen if we had a reduced trade relationship with china over time that means china has less of a need for u.s. dollars period, less of a need for u.s. treasuries so you lose this incremental -- what has historically been a huge buyer of treasuries at the same time you're unwinding your purchase of securities as well in the bond market so you have to think twice about just how fast your unwind will be at some point if you think there's a real slowdown either intentionally which would be a real -- >> you're running huge budget deficit which is require more sales of bills and notes. >> you're staying with us. we'll continue this conversation with our next guest as well. the former assistant secretary for economic policy at the treasury department under president bush and currently a professor at the university of
maryland and jeff moon, a former assistant ustr for china affairs and founder and president of china moon strategies. good morning to you both i'll start with you. looking at this meeting between the u.s. and china, on the one hand trying to balance concerns that escalating trade tensions and tariffs could slow the economy in the u.s., trying to strike a deal and avoid the negotiations with the chinese. >> and, guys, before you answer that i want to tell our viewers what they're watching. you can see mohammed bin salman. >> mohammed bin salman standing way off to the side by himself. >> there is xi jinping yes, he is moon jae-in from south korea
and shinzo abe there. >> narendra modi right behind him. >> and there's erdogan of turkey. >> i wonder if he and mbs will stay far apart. >> so farther theresa may standing next to emmanuel macron as well, leader of france. >> one big -- can we say dysfunctional family photo. >> complicated. >> it's interesting to read the coverage of this they're very focused on whether or not there will be a communique when all was said and done there's negotiation behind the scene that the communique is done before the event starts an concerns there may not be a communique because of where the united states stands on trade and climate change et cetera
most of these are just photo ops and blah blah blah but we're looking for an outcome of something. >> we each been focused for right reasons on china and the u.s. but any other things that should be considered >> they signed this trade, the new nafta, the usmca today on enrique pena nieto's last day in office tomorrow andres manuel low pose obrador, you can call him amlo he's a hard leftist. he's chavez like he ran as a moderate in this election because in previous elections they told mexicans if this guy win ws we'll end up li venezuela. now that he'll be in office he's back to sounding far left. he's given an interview to newspapers today which i
wouldn't be surprised was moving the peso there's capital flight coming out of mexico from the upper crust. they're very concerned about nationalizations, et cetera. >> on a separate issue, there's talk putin and mohammed bin salman might talk about oil. >> nobody chumming up to mohammed bin salman. >> they're starting to take their seats. what's on the agenda on what is coming next? >> well, we wonder whether we'll see a trump/putin meeting. they said they're expecting an informal pull-aside but sarah huckabee sanders said the reason the president canceled his meeting is because of the events in ukraine, not because of the michael cohen guilty plea we saw
yesterday. sarah sanders saying the russian witch-hunt hoax is doing very well unfortunately, it probably undermines our relationship with russia however the reason for our canceled meeting is ukraine. hopefully that will be resolved soon so that productive conversations can begin so the u.s. side doubling down on the idea that the meeting between trump and putin has been canceled as the kremlin is putting out a statement saying they expect to see a trump/putin meeting. so watch for the hand shake between vladimir putin and donald trump because the united states says there's no scheduled meeting. the kremlin says there's something coming so make of that what you will as we watch this drama on the diplomatic stage. >> putin -- while you were talking putin and mbs sitting next to each other first sign of friendliness that mbs has gotten they had a big chuckle between two of them. >> to that point, we saw pictures earlier of emmanuel
macron of france meeting with mbs and our reporters were told that emmanuel macron deliberately sought out mohammed bin salman, the crown prince of saudi arabia, who has been accused of involvement in the murder of jamal khashoggi. emmanuel macron was said to have sought him out in order to speak specifically about the khashoggi murder and saudi activities in yemen so that picture of macron and mbs was making headlines in buenos aires as well. >> thank you i'm sure we'll be hearing more as this hour unfolds. i want to go back to our guest, the former assistant policy at treasury and professor at university of maryland, jeff moon, former assistant ustr for china affairs and strategist founder and president. jeff, i'll start with you going back to the question i was
starting to ask. in terms of a deal i would imagine the u.s. is trying to balance concerns about escalating trade tensions and whether that could come home to roost in terms of u.s. economic growth in 2019 and beyond. on the other hand, striking some sort of deal or cease-fire that doesn't set the u.s. into a trap of negotiations that the chinese don't act upon how do you walk this tightrope >> i think of this from a practical perception i think about what can be and can't be achieved than what context. what can be is some kind of tentative agreement on tariffs the chinese might announce purchases of american goods. there could be limited market openings what can't be achieved is resolution of the long term industrial policy issues that is technology transfer, ipr, state-owned enterprises so we
need to think. if we assume as newspapers have been suggesting that there may be an agreement coming out of this, there could be a framework agreement that would resolve those issues that can be dealt with but then announce a pattern or framework for moving forward in talks. >> and phillip, same question to you. what could be expected for from this meeting versus what's unrealistic in terms of expectations. >> i'll agree and say the goal is limited can the chinese bring forward enough opening and market access to get president trump to put on hold the next step of his tariff war. to keep the rate at 10 instead of going up to 25? that's what we're looking for. it's limited but super import t
important. >> you can see steve mnuchin standing there, mike pomp owe. we talk so often about the mind-set of our government of trump or navarro or mnuchin. what are they thinking given your experience to what they're thinking as they end this conversation and/or negotiation with the u.s. >> i interpret lighthizer's comments today suggesting that there could be a positive outcome as trying to explain it wouldn't be fruitless to do that the other thing about chinese pattern of thinking is that with regard to the most difficult issues, they have yet to concede
a problem exists. they have said there is no technology transfer problem. there definitely is. i would look far rhetoric to stop and perhaps there are to be a recognition that there is a problem that needs to be negotiated with regard to industrial policy. on the american side one thing to look forward to is the role of ustr ustr has the track record of having negotiated the agreement with nafta being signed today, the agreement with south korea and is involved with europe. but ustr doesn't have the lead on these and it's unclear what does if ustr were to have a more prominent role, that would be a positive signal of american seriousness to get a deal done sooner rather than later >> the foreign policy community looking for who would lead the negotiations if a deal comes
about that will be a big signal as to what the intention is of the united states. >> we've heard so much in the way of different angles on what the trump administration might be thinking but president trump himself to the "wall street journal" when asked what it would take to get a deal in the near term said wants u.s. access to more of china's markets so basically freedom for u.s. companies to sell and operate there. that seems to be a parallel track to the intellectual property conversation on some level so do you think there is a territory for some kind of an agreement within just market access or buying more stuff from the united states? >> on the market access side, there are things the chinese can do to demonstrate progress there's the buying more stuff, that's their traditional go-to mov move so they dole out a little at a
time to demonstrate progress but access can happen quickly. >> jeff, how important is the other meetings and sort of the other agreements that are potentially being struck here over the next two days, whether the signing of the usmca, i realize that has to go through all three countries, whether it be trump meeting with abe of japan, other meetings expected to take place in the sidelines how crucial are those to understanding and contributing to the impact between u.s. and china as that relationship moves forward? >> the breakthrough of this meeting is the nafta agreement and trump will talk about that as an achievement going forward out of this. the other meetings are the
meetings that you need to maintain bilateral relations and those are very important but i don't think they will be major announcements or breakthroughs but the rubber will hit the road with the china meeting that will affect businesses almost needsly you'll see that reflected in the stock market what won't change is the long term plans of companies. companies are now realizing they need to shift their supply chains, for example. technology restrictions are tightening up within the united states on tez t ability to transfer technology to china those are long-term trends that won't change no matter what happens at the dinner. >> well, thank you all for your input on this. i think you'll be sticking with us, michelle >> we'll keep her here. >> nice to be here. >> reminds me of old times. we'll continue to monitor the summit as well, of course, we've been watching that still ahead, hacked.
a massive data breach at marriott rocking customers stock also down. you can see that there, we're going to bring you up to speed on what the latest is with that breach bus it's the last trading day of november so why not ok alot the winners and losers for the last trading day of the month "squawk on the street" will be right back this isn't just any moving day.
this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. good morning, i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. vice president pence on hand for the dignified transfer of the bodies of a soldier and an airman killed earlier this week in afghanistan army captain andrew ross and air force sergeant dylan eklund arriving at dover air force base earlier this morning. russia says the three commanders of the ukrainian
vessels captured here in the cry merie y -- crimean peninsula are being taken to moscow. the other crew members remain in custody in crimea. at home, the supreme court showing off its newest class of justices it's the first time all nine have been together and it includes the newest justice, brett kavanaugh, who was confirmed last month after a bruising confirmation process. and after the outbreak of e. coli linked to romaine lettuce that took it off the shelves, look at that the other types of lettuce soared according to the department of agriculture. in a week's time the cost of a 24-count carton of iceberg lettuce rose as much as 168% you are up to date that's the news update i'll send it back to you david? >> thank you sue. we're awaiting for opening remarks at the g20 summit. the president of argentina expected to speak.
michelle caruso cabrera, cnbc contributor, i'm getting used to that title you were watching people entering always interesting to watch who is speaking to whom. >> the body language says a lot. who is willing to be seen talking to whoever is always telling. one of the things that struck me is when they show the president of argentina, you'll see over his left shoulder is one of his key guys there's christine lagarde, head of the imf, one of the few women we see in a leadership role in this room but argentina is in a lot of economic trouble. they've managed to stabilize the currency but all of his issues are still pair mount at this point and the guy behind him is the person he sent to the united states to wall street to calm the markets at the height of the fears when their currency was crashing this is taking place in latin america that has gone far to the right.
latin america had been dominated by the left for a very long time, but now in argentina, colombia, brazil, we have seen a move to the right, a move towards markets, more friendly towards business rather than being anti-business, a move we hope away from things like nationalization as opposed to what we might see and the glaring exception is what happened with mexico which is very much an anti-establishment vote and similar to those other votes in that vane however still very much a leftist position compared to what we've seen in argentina, colombia, brazil. >> what surprises she the fact that this is president trump's first visit to latin america as president. >> a couple visits have been scheduled and then canceled. he was supposed to go to the summit of the americas and then they decided to invite raul castro and the u.s. administration was like, no way. that meeting was supposed to be what to do about venezuela, about reestablishing democracy
in venezuela and they thought it was completely hypocritical to be sending the head of cuba. >> there's a look at putin given what's going on in ukraine there's president trump. eamon javers is live that the summit in buenos aires working to get a seating chart for the dinner on saturday night as w l well so fascinating everyone around the world is watching this simultaneously and looking at interactions between these world leaders. one getting a lot of pickup on twitter is the interaction between vladimir putin and mohammed bin salman. sort of a hand shake/bro
hug/high five. very enthusiastic greeting between those leaders around that table as we've been watching these interactions. that perhaps, very interesting the united states still insisting the reason the president -- president trump canceled his meeting with vladimir putin was because of russian activity in ukraine to protest that, not because of any activity by the mueller investigation or the cohen guilty plea. not because of awkward timing there not wanting to be seen with vladimir putin. we'll wait to see whether we see trump and putin together but that is something the russian side is saying could happen. on the agenda we expect to see the president meeting with the
prime minister of japan. we'll see the first trilateral session between the united states, japan and india. prime minister modi of india so all of that happening in buenos aires. >> eamon, we're seeing it's tenser than we've seen in years past is that your sense. >> we were in hamburg germany last year, we're in buenos aires this year. in the city itself it's a security lockdown. checkpoints on the streets, police riot gear and that's what we're seeing in buenos aires the mood on the street is like it is at any of these events and we are expecting protests. the mood among the leaders is --
is a fair way to describe it the u.s./russia relationship at a tipping point. every nation around the world watching those very carefully. a lot of nations feeling as if they're being required to choose sides and not being comfortable with that. not wanting to have to pick a horse to bet on and hoping far poz positive outcome. >> do you agree they're getting more and more concessions. leaders conceding yes there is a problem with china, yes, they do this organizations out of twhashds a few years ago would have been completely different in their
ownalty. everyone is getting on the same page that there's a problem and it has to be dealt with and the different comes down to tactics and the underlying issue no longer seems to be an issue anymore. >> sure, i don't think you can say donald trump is somehow a global outlier here in his recentment of chinese trade tactics. that's a common theme countries feel countries smaller than the united states may not have felt they had the heft to really go toe to toe with china on that and to deal with it on their own so i think that the president, president trump, if he plays this well here in buenos aires has a real opportunity to pick up some global support for his moves against china. especially if he can win significant concessions here that affect the rest of the world, not just the united states so i think that's exactly right, michelle. >> eamon, thanks very much. we're going to talk a little more about pieces moving around in various trade agreements. let's bring in yil lon mui
s -- ylan mui we've obviously had the commemoration, the celebration of the north american agreement. is there anything to be pulled from that experience with regard to either the administration's approach, eagerness for a deal, how the state of play might evolve >> i think you're seeing a lot of perfoomp and circumstance bue reality is it will be a long progress approving this new usmca once you get back to washington democrats are already coming out against this deal. we heard from senator elizabeth warren saying she oppose this is deal we heard from senator chuck schumer who said he doesn't want this to simply be a rebranding of old policies so on the democratic side you'll see them
come at the president. they're looking toward 2020 and ma what might play to a potential swing voter, a potential trump base so there will be debate negotiation over this in washington today robert lighthizer feel there will be democratic support for deal but what we're hearing from the hill the early reaction has been skeptical. >> ylan, if the usmca doesn't make it back through congress or one of the other legislative bodies of countries involved in this deal, what happens then >> there's a lot of uncertainty about how much power the president would have now, if this deal doesn't get passed, the immediate consequence is that the old nafta just stays in place. but the question here is whether president trump becomes so miffed by his deal not passing, does he try to rip up that
agreement complete ly as he campaigned non20 eed on in 2016? if he does pull out of nafta, that leaves a lot of questions about what would remain in place and create tremendous uncertainty for business community so a lot of questions if that indeed would happen but most likely you see this process drag out in washington it could be a year or longer before you see this bill come to the floor. >> ylan, it's michelle nafta or usmca or whatever you want to call it, a slog but when it comes to china, i feel like there's very little daylight between the left and right in washington elizabeth warren published a foreign policy -- her foreign policy outlook in "foreign affairs" and if you extract everything she wrote about china, capitalize add few words, add a few exclamation points and
it's similar to what donald trump says about china.d a few add a few exclamation points and it's similar to what donald trump says about china >> that's an interesting dynamic because democrats are complaining president trump maybe isn't tough enough on chi china. they are encouraging him to not back down, to not accept what they are calling weak and meaningless agreements they want more than just a hand shake so on china democrats are saying don't back down on the usmca, democrats may not have president trump's back. >> interesting, ylan so many different agendas and influences on all this thank you for that breakdown for a closer look at the g20 and its market impact. let's bring in the deputy global chief investment officer at state street global advisers and the global strategist at cantor fitzgerald laurie, maybe it makes sense to say what you think is at stake
for the market for this weekend and how the impact is going to manifest markets, are we going to be looking the dollar economic growth estimates? some other factors that would be the transmission mechanisms from what happens in buenos aires to financial markets? >> there's a lot at stake and the big eyes will be on trump and xi and what happens in terms of u.s./china relations. if we get a full on trade war there's some estimates that suggest that could take 1% off global gdp and 2% off gdp in china and the u.s. and in this stage in the market cycle that would be challenging for markets to navigate. >> peter, where do you think the markets are set up with expectations, not just for this meeting but just into year end it's interesting, i almost wonder if the outcome will be a rorschach test if the market rallies it will have found excuse. if not, the market was probably a little overstressed.
>> i love the rorschach analogy, that's great look, our view has been that the market s wers were oversold. we finally got a reaction with the high yield credit market with high yield spreads moving above 400 briefly but the markets were oversold and the walkback from chairman powell at the economic meeting in new york catalyzed what we thought was likely a rally into year end and with respect to the g20, yes, it's important and i think we are already embroiled in a global trade war here so i think it will be an extend and amend from the standpoint of president trump and president xi into the spring and as a result, i think that helps to provide additional tail winds to a market that was already poised for a bounce. >> given the questionings, the uncertainties, the unknowns, whether it's this weekend or other big things that investors are looking at right now, how should they be positioned in this market?
>> so we are still positive about equities we think the fundamentals particularly in the u.s. warrant an overallocation. we think that there will remain geopolitical risk. trade is one but brexit, other things happening around the world will be flash points invests or should be looking defensively and we think the u.s. has a good risk/reward in that regard. >> peter, defensiveness has been the tone of the markets for months now, even on these rebounds and i wonder if there's any way to characterize whether investors are too focus tonight prospects for the end of a psych into next year forthat's tor ife appropriate place we're in we were thinking the u.s. would have too much momentum and it didn't work out that way. >> no, it didn't and we have talked about this in the past. my big concern was rate volatility from the get go, although it came into the year bullish. i think it's an appropriate
concern to worry about 2019 and frankly for 2019 as our outlook evolves, we have had real slowdowns in emerging markets. that's very important to global growth and will circle back to the united states. we're seeing a slow down in the housing market and finally starting to see support from the credit markets go away and by the way there's leverage in the system right now both in low-rated ig but in speckive the loans. the lbo market is on fire so all the red flags that one needs to be concerned about are popping up right and left here. >> i want to dig into notes i see here from you. you say trade wars aside, 2019 will be a momentous year for china. why? >> it will be a big transitional year because we'll have additional discussions on trade and come to something long-term
sustainable there. they continue to have to transition from more of an investment led to more consumption led economy and we hope to see that accelerate in 2019 but we'll start to see chinese securities become a much more prominent part of major indices so investors globally will have to think about how they integrate chinese debt and equity into their portfolios. >> peter, this outlook for further financial tightening and maybe the risks coming to the floor in 2019, did the fed's approach change that or could a prolonged fed pause change that picture? >> ones view cannot be statistic, it has to be dynamic. central banks will react to the risks as they begin to identify them the fed did identify the triple b risk in its financial stability report so the fed and other central banks will react and, yes, there was a real walkback from chairman paul talking about a cycle that could extend indefinitely being a long way from neutral to just under
neutral so the fed is ready, willing and able to be a little more accommodative relative to its path from a couple months ago. that could affect my view, making me a little less cautious but unfortunately, i think the writing is on the wall already because financial conditions onl financial conditions globally tight end considerably and in fact my eye is towards the ecb mid december with respect to whether or not they extend ecb the way they did in september. i think that's the marginal provider of liquidity. >> the fed does not control at all. good reminder. thank you very much for your time as we head to break, getting a check on shares of marietta, on the -- marriott we have the details. and the final trading day of the month. take a look at winners and losers the dow is up ten points
some less flashy corners of the market quietly made new highs. find out more on trading nation.cnbc.com. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your retail business. so that if your customer needs shoes, & he's got wide feet. & with edge-to-edge intelligence you've got
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among names leading that group to the down side, apache, newfield exploration now back downtown to you guys. >> all right, that's very much time for the eft spotlight bob pisani is here at the desk looking at the market rotation >> has it been up and down about trade and what the fed is doing. month of november, real roller coaster, dow moved in a 2,000 point range in november, dominated by the fed, and tariffs, eft flows dominated by two sectors, tech and health care look at this move in and out health care emerged as new marked leader as investors sold technology many new highs even today, lily, merck. tech sold down communication services will sell off, dominated by declines in facebook, twitter, netflix
trade related efts, industrials and material efts got a lot of attention, moved up and down depending on pace of trade talks. you see toward the end of the month on the industrial eft, it helped them rally like caterpillar as trade talk was more optimistic. two separate stories, oil and interest rates moved the business energy stocks were only down 3%, but look at oil on the orange line, down 20% unusual differential it is happening because decline in oil is mostly about supply. lot of iranian oil back in the market that's why you didn't see as much drop in stocks. flatter yield curve, ten year below 3%one day. that helped interest rate sensitive groups like real estate outperform banks. on the t-20, it has been a mess trying to figure things out. with the fed tightening clearer,
that's a big help to markets, trying to get a number for 2019, up 10%, 8%, 4% tariffs are the big wildcard and slower global growth and what's going on with input costs, those aren't tariff related. some clarity on tariffs would help narrow the differential we are trying to figure out how do you plug in model numbers for 2019 earnings, little more clarity on fed helps, more clarity on tariffs that would be a big help that's why the g20 is carefully watched. >> we'll watch closely thank you. "squawk alley" is up next. and we're seeing all over the g20 meeting. back after this.