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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 19, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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points we'll see. basically how many points? 65 points until 26k. can we get there >> that's the question the smaller tech stocks have quite a lot of support >> walmart is the one that's leading the charge let's get to the half. thank you very much. i'm very brian sullivan in for scott wapner let's begin with a simple question after eight straight weeks of gains and one of the best starts to any year for the stock market ever, is it really still safe to go out and buy equities? it is 12:00 noon and this is the halftime report. just over 10% for the s&p and dow. if stocks keep going higher, who will provide the leadership?
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a big and bullish call on mcdonald's wa walmart surges after promoting blow out numbers the halftime report starts right now. all right. it's good to have you with us on this tuesday to discuss, to trade the big get stories of the day is our panel. you stopped skiing to come on tv a minute for a day any way. sdp >> for a couple of minutes >> we have this big story. the s&p 500, the highest levels since the first week of december we have got back all we have lost in december the dow back to early october highs. what snap back it was. with that run, valuations have also come up is it still safe to buy stock? >> it feels a lot better for sure i do think you can buy stocks.
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we got as low as 14 times. this time of year ago we were at 19 times the obstacles of the fed, the obstacles of the government shutdown and china trade are starting to slowly go away we still have to get through trade. sounds like they are making progress in the meantime, what i'm looking at is the data in china is stabilizing it started in december when we got online retail sales that increased. we got credit figures last week that show credit was up 17% in january from 10% in december slowly things are getting a bit better i think we really need to economy to do well or stabilize for us to have another leg high. >> the trillion dollar question, i'm going to follow up with you is a trade deal already baked in now? >> i don't think so. not at these valuations. >> for example, citigroup upgrades they upgrade copper. all the charts are saying it looks great. all that sort of stuff the stock wouldn't react if it
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was pricing in trade the stock is up 6% today i think there are pockets in the market that are not pricing it fully trade. some for sure and that's why cyclicals have led to date >> you know there are people that are watching that sold in december, maybe in a huff. are they buying at the near term top. >> are you looking to invest two or three years now or the next few months there's no question we'll get some pull back we got a little more runway ahead. >> we got our 10%.
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that's taken us above 27.50. you take out the 2018 high what's interesting is i think the market is pricing in and last week i began to wonder with some caution if you see that high from 2018, that 29.50, does that change the thinking of the federal reserve. at 23.50, in december change the thinking of the federal reserve. i am beginning now and hearing the comments about rolling back the balance sheet. if you're going to continue with the communication that chairman powell put forth a couple of weeks ago which is we're going to back off and they are truly going to back off from 19 into 20, then you'll take out that high i think we're back for that sea of liquidity >> here is the uncomfortable question if the market, i don't want to say collapse, if the market slide in december, change the feds thinking to dovish, does
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this market acceleration rechange the fed thinking back to the way it should have been or was prior because the inflation data, well not hot, certainly isn't cold >> last week scott wapner and i had that conversation. i was offering some caution that i agree with you i think that's the proper thinking they are really going to sit on their hands. they're going to ride out 2019 if that's the situation -- >> i'd agree i think there's plenty of stocks you can buy. >> i'm not a buyer >> i'll point out that year to
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date we're down 27.28. we're down 51% from the christmas eve high which was the recent low in the market the reason i point that out is insurance is so cheap now. you're buying insurance on a market that's gone like this why wouldn't you do that it's prudent to do that. we always try to emphasize it that it's good to take money offer the table when you have some winners you want to let them run how do you do it one of the ways is by snugging up under the market. >> you ever buy the travel insurance? >> no. >> the more chance you think your trip will be cancelled, the more likely you are to pay up for that travel insurance. if it's cheap, you don't care. answer your own question, are people buying insurance just because it's cheap and they think why not or do they feel like it's a good deal and maybe there is a risk?
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>> to your point, top of the show, we had this huge run in 2019 you want to realize those gains but don't want taxable both ov those would let you sleep at night >> how expensive are they? >> very cheap. it's half the price. literally half the price that it was on christmas eve you're buying it now for half the price. >> i think in the short term you can do that. stocks are much better than a month ago.
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today you have to look at specific stocks, specific sectors and say where is the opportunity going to be given if we believe if the fed is off the table and some of these trade issues will go, what are the sectors like industrials in some of the financials will do much better than they are now >> they didn't just back away because of the stock market. >> they ran off. >> look at the china pmi, it was worse than expected. >> you love the china data >> it's pretty important i don't think the fed will say the market has rallied and we're
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going to go back in and be aggressive especially with the pce below 2% >> a little side question. maybe they couldn't change if they wanted to because it would make it look like they were shifting with the wind they were very much criticized >> if the pce gets hot then i get it that gives them cover. i think there's enough slack in the labor market, the labor participation rate is helping the jobs market. they are not escalating higher we are not getting super hot in any juone area in the committee. i think that's what the fed is keeping their eye on >> if they start raising rate, you'll get the inversion all the
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over again >> we're still waiting for more on brexit. we had resignations. people stepping down in corbin's party. we have may who got to try to land this thing, if she can. >> it's looking more like it might land there's all this stuff that's why it's unlikely to make some drastic move. a move or a significant change in the way they view the world but prior to that end of march >> back to the point of this segment which is is it safe to get back in the water to buy stocks once again. bond people tend to be nervous it's their whole demeanor. i see 2.65
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not exactly screaming growth >> no. the high yield market, the credit quality that the federal reserve spoke with in early december about, there's been a very significant healing and rebound in that taxable, income market there are conditions in the asset pricing globally right now that you have to look at that are very favorable the price of oil is back to $56. i don't think we have seen a level like that since october. forget about december or november it's the cheapest it's been since october. you're seeing a recovery in the conditions that brought the market lower just to answer the question, is it safe to buy stocks, where the market is right now, i look at what i have on probably under invested and probably made some disruptive movesto my portfoli in the last couple of weeks. i was in a gray position and kind of put myself behind the
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ball i was concerned about how they would treat s&p at 29.50 if they're going to sit there and look and say we're good for 2019, then you're back to the sea of liquidity again stocks are absolutely cheap in that environment >> japanese yields were negative last week. >> the german ten year close to going negative >> that's right. i think there are whole other issues though. they have to buy their own bonds. i wonder how much it's flag or their own thing. >> they've had zero interest rate policy for 20 years >> zero birthrate too. >> i get that. there's no way they can do a lot in terms of removal of qe, they have to say accommodative. you have china stimulating like every single day
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it's very good for risk assets, ie stocks. it's exposed to big stuff, sovereign stuff. >> it's the same kind of thing i think it's down and out and cheap. that's what i'm looking for in this kind of market.
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>> in the case of free port when you have city taken them up like this going from neutral to a buy, pretty big jump, the stock is up 7% >> it's taken a lot longer than we expected. >> they just got down putting it together it was a unique situation. they got a great management team great track record the balance sheet is good. i want to play these kinds of things >> i want one word answers one word answers impossible, i know starting with you skier man. get your skis shined up juicy fruit. >> that's two words.
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>> the s&p 500 will end the year higher than it is right now. >> yes >> yes >> no idea >> that's two words. >> we'll leave it with now, your first word >> yes and no. >> isn't that the whole point of this show is knowing where the overall market is going to go. >> we should acknowledge no one knows. shares of walmart are getting a boost today as holiday sales crushing estimates e commerce up 43%. you remember all this doom and gloom right after christmas. no one will buy anything ever again. walmart put that to bed and you bought it. >> i did took off a bit of chipotle
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today. back into the walmart. i think there's dispersion opportunity. you talk and ask the question, do i think the market is going higher i gave you the answer you didn't like there's plenty of stocks because you have the dispersion that you can look at and find opportunity here this walmart report completely dismisses that ridiculous december retail sales report that every one is so concerned about as it related to online sales. every one will say margins aren't that good it was all about grabbing the market share from toys and from grocery. >> 43% jump.
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walmart is kind of becoming some slick kind of online retailer. >> they have the online presence they are doing it in a really good way i think customers are appreciating that and the market is now appreciating that as well >> they are competing aggressively as they said on the call their margins are not getting crushed. if they do it right and have something slick like jet.com is, they can compete and obviously amazon is trying to expand through the whole foods and other acquisitions they may be considering. whoever end ts uptakie tss uptas out. >> we know whole foods is raising prices walmart will start doing the
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same thing consumer good companies are starting to do that. things they haven't done for the last five years. >> pete's not here he likes target. they are down 5% in the last three months walmart is up 8% rye who why is target not responding more have they mastered this e commerce side. >> i think he would admit their not quite at the jet level that walmart is at. they're not one of the worst on the retail side at all a lot of what they're doing, do you want to pick it up and order it online and pick it up in store because you want to pick up something else on the way both these retailers are really mastering that macy's is trying to do that bu people don't go into macy's in
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quite the same way >> people buying groceries and having it delivered to their car. costco, we like to throw things into a retail lump very different model you like it. it's a 14% year. do you find any extra boost, if you will for the walmart news today. >> i just kind of feel like costco is it s own animal i think walmart traffic was encouraging. i think that does probably bode well for overall discretionary retailers of this earning season this is a fabulous management
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team they do not want amazon to win they have really come out guns blazing. i still like the story other than valuation that's my only thing >> one quick one on walmart before we leave it and that's china. except for the fact they buy so much from china, we don't talk about them as a china play in terms of expansion that is what they talked about on the call here they said the growth opportunities in china are immense for them i'm not surprised to hear that i think a lot of our viewers are probably surprised by that statement. >> i tweeted this out, it's incredible to believe how big walmart is the equivalent of every man, woman and child spending 1300 a year in revenue. >> look at the job market and wage numbers, how does it not continue to be strong? 3% growth in wages over the last four months is a very good sign
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for the consumer particularly the low end that's why you want to have exposure i'm not in walmart at this point. i'm in costco. there's other players you can be nibbling on. >> any other retail names to nibble on? >> lulu lemon. i think you buy that one on the dip just like you buy alta on the dip. i think those two are two you could buy on dips. >> i would agree ulta, i've been trimming it's a great category. they are doing a great job with kylie jenner.
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he's got this big hotel business he's got horse races and this other stuff. >> it's not about him anymore because he brought in two people a coo and president. they are all delivering. they actually delivered. >> any retailers that you think are attractive at these levels >> i think the consumer is in excellent shape. wayfair will report this friday. that's a very interesting repor for me they seem to be gaining some momentum the u.s. consumer has kind of endured the change in the rate structure in 2018. a lot of concerns as it relates to what the taxization will be here in april and a lot of global macro head winds. they are incredibly resilient in
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continuing to spend. >> let's bring it full circle. the beginning of the retail discussion you talked about walmart and its retail sales number that we had last week that got everybody sort of semi freaked out. now you have the biggest retailer coming up there's so much data that seems to be conflicting. >> i think ever one did a fantastic job of dissecting the retail sales report. not much confidence at all in that december report you wanted to use walmart as a bit of a referendum to see if there was anyvalidity in the report i don't think there was.
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>> what i'd much rather do and borrow jim cramer, you want to look whether you can get on an earnings conference call or read the transcript, you want to read the transcript and see the conflicts of ceos. we still have a pretty confident ceo consumer >> walmart, you know what they did today? live earnings conference call. first time they have done that in nearly a decade maybe that's confidence. >> long over due what's coming up on the halftime report. >> next up, the big and bullish call on mcdonald's see why this analyst is so sure the stock is about to soar plus, john's two latest picks in unusual options activity just jumped big time. before the break, our data partners at kensho on what
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happens after walmart picks up 14% or more in two months. the s&p picks up almost 1% the halftime report is back in two minutes. xpedia, i saved when i added a hotel to our flight. so even when she grows up, she'll never outgrow the memory of our adventure. unlock savings when you add select hotels to your existing trip. only with expedia. on car insurance? did the little piggy cry wee wee wee all the way home? weeeeeeeee! we we weeeee!
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shares of mcdonald's are in focus today. they got an upgrade over at stephens the core u.s. business is accelerating and the call of the day features my favorite two words. menu innovation. anybody agree or disagree with the upgrades of mcdonald's in. >> i own it. >> so you like it. >> i do. i like it. >> you love it >> open the door they're still knocking >> when i was selling ulta i was working for another discretionary play and mcdonald's fits the bill it's like a staple stock
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i feel like it's cheaper than a staple stock given the growth you'll see in terms of organic sales. you have margin upside opportunity and free cash flow generation they have been investing heavily in their stores for the last several years. as 2019 progresses, they will reduce that spending that should help on the margin front. we talk about jobs and wages and what that will do to the consumer, i think they should benefit from that as well. stock hasn't done much it's up about 2% traded about 21 times forward. it's the lowest average and you get better growth in staples >> it's the worst performer major restaurant stock this year there's a couple o tiny ones that have done worst if you want to do a turn around -- >> i'm not saying they need a turn around. >> from an investment perspective. i'm not talk about the company you're supposed to buy low and
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sell higher. somebody told me that once >> predicting stephens is saying 3.5% growth is what they are looking for. for company large company like this, that's a huge pull people will sit up and take notice op that they upgraded the name >> keep this mind there was a lot of resiliency. this is where stephanie's point acting like a consumer staple is a gory point
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for the second half of 2018 while the market melted down, i think this stock did nearly 14% for a return it gives you that little characteristic of a consumer stap staple the business model here in the u.s. it's transitioning i think the acceleration is going to be there when you have this story, this organic story about the business model itself and then you combine then and i keep emphasizing with a strong consumer there's power and forward other restaurant names like a darden, like a starbucks and like a chipotle. it will create a very powerful tail wind for this company >> okay. we look at the restaurant return it's been grim for a lot of them chipotle up 39% this year. that's apple bees. you have red robin gourmet
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do not seem to be a trend on the consumer it kind of goes back to our retail conversation. it's no longer it seems like you can buy a group and let it go. you've got companies that people consider very similar, walmart and target going in different directions the money flowed out of restaurants to the cyclicals and growth areas that really got hurt in the last quarter when you're loobking at buying companies like a mcdonald's, you're buying insurance. buying mcdonald's is like buying insurance. >> qsr is one we talked about. this one is up from 50 to 64
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it's made a marvelous run. would you have rather been in that than mcdonald's, sure. i'm never going to olive garden but it is olive garden >> 5:30 on a monday, the place will wait. it's kind of packed. here is what's happening at this hour. the north korean official handling negotiations with the united states has arrived in
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beiji beijing. a jewish smem te isish cemel french town was damaged. it was made ahead of rallies against anti-semitism across the country. supreme court justice ruth ginsberg is back on the bench after cancer surgery finally, klinsmann received a 3.35 million settlement with the soccer federation. he was hired to be the coach in 2011 given an exentension but he was
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fired. brian, back to you >> do it >> what? we had a nice win against the hokies last night. you're a gentleman, sir. >> i think you guys can win the whole thing. thanks options bulls are betting on one consumer stock mr. jon has the trade coming up. first, a check on the s&p sectors that are moving consumer staples. we just hit them hard. the best performing sector we're back in two minutes. ector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens ify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit.
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welcome back the bulls are making a big bet that shares of kimberly clark double digit in rally. you have a lot going on here >> i do. as it turns out, the ceo will be on closing bell tomorrow another 3:00 p.m is it because the stock is about to break out why people are in here buying aggressively shares of kimberly clark and buying options? perhaps. that's what they're doing.
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a one year chart of kimberly clark is right back against that high 10,000 of these have traded so far today. i jumped on these. i'll probably be in these about three months take a look at mlnx. this one is fabulous semi conductors these guys have a lot to do with storage. big upside call buying not as long data they are buying up side calls today in this one. i bought the stock i have not got the options yet i'm trying to buy the options. my order is in right now it's just that as the stock has been running here, it's been a little tough to catch them got two quick updates for you.
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take a look at encana. we talked about on the 11th of february they came in and bought a lot of upside calls with the stock. just over 6,000. they paid up to 50% for those calls. already up 100% on that trade. we thought we would update it for you. we try to take at least half off. i took all of it off because this run's been so screaming fast second one, take a look at crc california resources also in the oil and gas space. this one did even better these calls were trading for 1.20 they hit almost $3 yesterday i've taken the position off completely now >> when is that ceo on again >> tomorrow at 3:00. he's on closing bell >> thank you very much a viewer with a question coming
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in on yelp there's also time to reach out your own questions go to cnbc.com/halftime or tweet us later, the counsel economic adviser kevin hassett will join power lunch. that's at 2:00 eastern time. one hour before the ceo of kimberly clark joins closing bell s. s. it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here not you. right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house i don't see any hovering his name is hovering? look up? by using machine learning and analytics to automate claims, cognizant is helping insurance companies advance how they serve even the hardest-to-reach customers.
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welcome back a big sport business story for you. the san diego padres have signed manny machado to ten years, $300 million. a lo wondering if free agents will get signed that's the news. ten years, $300 million. back to you. i know you're a padres fan good luck with that contract >> the only good news we've had in 20 years and that's what you want to do they're my number two team they just need to go back to the taco bell uniform. the brown and yellow our last winning season, i
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think. thank you very much. >> yelp is up 15%. they finally focused on their business i like the stock here. i think you get another opportunity down the road. if you hold it, own it and you can buy it >> nathan in chicago wants to know, stephanie, should he buy more cisco systems >> yes total revenues rose 7% their public revenues which is the government shutdown is up 17%. so bullish so optimistic and they are
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executing quite well >> sam asking joe if he should still hold onto microsoft. microsoft at 833 billion is the world's largest company right now. why? because of the leadership and software is proving itself to be a defensive form of technology that's what microsoft gives you. >> isn't it amazing. >> done a fantastic job. >> i've had this stock from around $62 it's a long term hold but it's
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an easy hold jon getting a call from chicago. probably a cousin. las vegas sands, buy, hold or sell >> i would buy it still at this level and with the run they've had. the numbers were down 5% people got a little worried about that and they were up 26% year over year i think things are just fine for las vegas. bit coin is reproaching its high for the year firs to k first to kelly evans we will look at what apple recent executive shame shake up could be telling us. forget the 401(k). it's time to revamp how america saves for retirement
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whies fa why facebook is being called the digital gangster it's all aheadt p atoof the hour the halftime report is back after this
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♪ don't fence me in. ♪ let me be by myself ♪ in the evenin' breeze, ♪ listen to the murmur of the tall concrete, ♪ ♪ send me off forever, but i ask you please ♪ ♪ don't fence me in. special offers available at your local mini dealer. welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm seema mody and this is futures now. bitcoin futures getting a big
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boost approaching its hifsghs of the year today's rally pushing bitcoin out of the range-bound trade we've seen throughout the year what's behind the surge? >> well, it's interesting to see the momentum shift certainly, jpmorgan put that wind in the sail, but seema, let's keep it in context just a year ago, we saw the price of bitcoin at $0,000, so let me make the understatement of the year, i think they flushed out all of the weaks after the drop it's critical to see the 4,000 level tested, but i think they need more to propel this above 4,000. >> you've been a big bitcoin bearer does the introduction change your thesis? >> no, i think it means absolutely nothing because what jpmorgan is doing is going to be a private blockchain, very different. and so, jeff is right, we're going to have to see something convincingly above 4,000, i think above 6,000 is going to be important, because we've spent so much time above 6,000 last year but the real number, the real number, seema, is going to be volume, because the cboe bitcoin futures contract is going to
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have its first day above 2,000 going back to, say, thanksgiving and what that proves is that there is some renewed interest we'll pay attention to the open interest that will indicate if this is new buying or if it's a short-covering rally. >> gentlemen, thank you. we've got more on bitcoin on our live show, plus, crescent wealth's jack ablin says a new round of trade talks this week could be a reason to sell this market that's at the p ttoofhe hour. more "halftime" after this short break. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
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the sector had a dramatic run, but change is coming. the article is online right now, tradingnation.cn tradingnation.cnbc.com time now for "the trader bullet," occidental petroleum downgraded from annuibuy to neu >> i own it. i'm disappointed it was a low and there were questions about the 2.3 dividend commitment, but i'm going to stay long, despite my disappointment. >> general mills reaffirming targets for the year, stephanie. >> that's all it takes for people to get excited because low execations are out there, but they trade 17 times forward and are going to grow negative
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three to flat in earnings this year sell it. >> sell, wow. >> all right, xpo logistics downgraded today sirat, you own this. >> i do. it was down 12% on friday. they missed numbers. they're resetting. they lost their biggest customer, but it's ibuy for me i think it's going up. >> facebook under fire in the united kingdom, saying companies like facebook should not be allowed to behave like digital gangsters. >> digital gangsters that's right i like it. >> dgs. >> they're a digital gangster. just before we came on air, the house said they want to hear more about consumer complaints from the company despite all that news, stock's up 50 cents today. >> what's a digital gangster >> anyway, final trades are straight ahead on "the halftime rertpo." new. capital one cafes. inviting places with people here to help you, not sell you. and savichecking accouh
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♪hold on don't you worry,♪ ♪i'm comin' ♪here we come, hold on♪ ♪we're about to save you i'm comin', yeah♪ ♪hold on don't you worry,♪ ♪i'm comin' it is time for our final trades joe, kick it off. >> someone on twitter pointed outs the answer should have been maybe to you, so maybe, not yes or no. abbott labs -- >> let it go. >> -- trades to an all-time high long the stock health care continues to underperform, but this is a great way to get exposure. >> abt, got it stephanie? >> gilead. the new ceo starts march 1st expect a lot of m&a in the second half of this year they've got the balance sheet to do it. i think they will. super cheap stock. >> sirat >> equinix i think goes higher. >> you're not worried about overdata center capacity
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>> no, they're a collocation facility, very specialized in the reit space. >> i just wanted you to say collocation. jon najarian >> cvs a lot of upside calling today. during the show i have an order in that i'm trying to buy right now. >> thank you for making it easy on me. i appreciate it. that's it for "halftime. "the exchange" with kelly evans begins right now thank you, brian welcome, everyone, and here's what's ahead this hour a meet york rise the major averages are up more than 18% since the christmas eve lows, 18%! are there any bargains left? our guest still finds plenty. plus, shaking up our retirement system. is it time to refresh, maybe reinvent the 401(k)? we'll tell you what that could look like. and an executive shake-up. if you want to know what may be next for apple, just look at the executive roster we'll do just that. but we begin with the markets, dom chu with the numbers. >> so, they are green. we didn't like that way to start the day. we wermain

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