tv Street Signs CNBC March 1, 2019 4:00am-5:00am EST
welcome to "street signs." it's friday morning from london. european stocks follow asian equity markets higher as msci says it will boost the waiting of chinese listed shares in its global benchmarks. the world's largest advertising group warns of a challenging 2019 forecasting net sales will fall as much as 2%
luxury shares -- promises further growth this year a tale of two asset managers man group shares slump as the funds on the management fall, and jupiter stocks soar with assets at a slight increase in management fees. we some fresh euro zone final manufacturing pmi numbers. the numbers for february's final future output, pmi at 56.7 that is against an expectation of 56.4. the final manufacturing output pmi at 49.4. that's against 50.50 for january, of course the file manufacturing pmi at 49.3 that is against 50.5 for january, and the 49.2
expectation, that is the lowest sense june 2013. just based on some of the numbers, it's really clear what is going on in that part of the world. it looks like really we're seeing some significant numbers when it comes to germany as well we're going to try to bring you more -- the euro trading weaker against the dollar by around .1% at the moment. let's take a look at the european picture when it comes to equities right now across the board. a relatively positive start for investors. you can see the stock 600 un2/3 of 1%. it we look at the individual markets behind that, you can see where that strength is coming from both here in london on the ftse 100 and off a similar amount around two-third of 1%. the dax is liar. the cac is under .7% the ftse mib is up just under
.6%. let's take a look at the individual sectors here in europe as well about an hour into the trading day. the autos up 1.5%. >> do you see near-term growth prospects for europe based on the flbz this month and, of course, last month as well wrb >> we do think that growth momentum will pick up. remember, the big story of 2018 was the sharp slowdown in growth especially in the fourth quarter where the market was convincing itself that growth would slow significantly further, equity markets were slumping, credit spreads were spiking we think pmi's, or lead
indicators, and momentum is now set to pick up we've seen some important data points out of china. >> growth momentum is moving sharper most likely because of sentiment. that's because brexit, trade talks are being resolved you can bakley go back up to where you should be. secondly, the inventory cycle is improving. it's starting to pick up the global back drop is improving as it goes from ache drag to being a boost. >> i think there's quite a few people who dispute the idea that
brexit is being resolved with 28 days, whatever it is to go, until the deadline, and no clear sign as to what we're going to see at the end of that month. sick electrical defensive have already rallied. the big question for investors is where is this improvement in sentiment not yet priced in? for us there are two regions where that is the case the first one is the bond market, which hasn't moved until about two days ago if that scenario that we've just described materialized, which is china pmi up by two points, euro area growth momentum improving, that would be consistent with bund yields rising that would be quite an irony because late last year all the investors were hiding in the defensive bond proxies if the scenario that we just described comes to pass, then
that's the most vulnerable part of the market. >> and just in terms of vulnerability in europe, we've seen a lot of concern over the last few months about germany, about its exports specifically the auto sector. i'm wondering, do you see there is a potential for germany to come back, especially in the equity side of things? >> we have, in fact, just upgraded to the german equity market relative to the european one. there was a key underperformance in 2018 underperforming by more than 10% if you ask yourself why is that so, there are two reasons for this a, it's a very cyclical index. if the economy slows, as it has, germany underprfsz, and then it has a lot of export exposure to china. if it weakens as it has, that's the worst possible combination for germany slowing growth going forward we expect them to be more or less to stabilize, plus the groelt momentum to improve. that's consistent with germany outperforming. >> thanks for your insight we'll come back to you in a bit. he is the head of european equity strategy at deutsche
bank one of our top stories, of course, the u.s. secretary of state mike pompeo said that north korea did not provide complete clarity on what it was going to do in return for the lifting of the u.s. sanctions. the foreign minister for north korea insisted his country has not demanded that all sanctions be removed talks between u.s. president donald trump and north korean leader kim jong un ended early in hanoi without any kind of agreement or joint statement, but the south korean president said he will support continued negotiations by any means. my colleague filed this report from hanoi >> it's a case of trump said, kim jong said. president trump said he walked away because north korea wanted all sanctions lifted north koreans say that's not true here is north korea foreign minister in a late night press conference >> what we proposed was not the removal of all sanctions, but their partial removal. in detail, there are 11 u.n. sanction resolutions all
together imposed on the dprk, and we propose the united states to lift articles of sanctions that impede the civilian economy and the livelihood of our people from five year-end sakds resolutions adopted in 2016 and 2017 >> here is another point of context. the level of dismantlement at the facility pyongyang says it was willing to completely and permanently disable the facility washington says only a portion of that was on the table in the meantime for the regional reaction, very family pattern here beijing says both sides need to keep cool heads and meet halfway. prime minister shinzo abe of japan says he fully supports president trump for a no deal decision in the meantime, south korean president says that i'm stepping in here and i'm going to achieve peace on the korean peninsula. i'm shaara cang from hanoi, vietnam. back to you. >> we spoke with emily
thornbury, the u can labour party spokesperson on foreign affairs. she told cnbc shfs concerned about the lack of progress in those negotiations between trump and kim. >> i think you can be sending off signals, and in the end it can get out of control i think that what is important is what people do, and the problem is with donald trump is having had this terribly high rhetoric he now seems to be great friends with kim jong un, and nothing seems to have really happened. when i was in the states and spoke to official there's and spoke to lots of people, and i think everyone's concern is that if president trump is responsible for negotiations, they're worried about him being taken advantage of, but in a kind of strange way, the fact that they haven't agreed to anything, but they have turned down the rhetoric is a leaf. now, that doesn't mean that the
problem with north korea has gone away because it definitely hasn't, and it does need to be dealt with, but in an effective way. an effective way is not on the one hand kumgcuddling him and chatting at him. it is about negotiations, and it doesn't seem to me that there's been any effective negotiations. we don't see any evidence of the nuclear arsenal being cut back in any way where are we it's -- it is i -- it continues to be a great concern. >> coming up on the show, we'll have more from that exclusive interview with the u.k.'s shadow foreign secretary who says brexit has meant there's a u.k. sized hole on the world's diplomatic map >> i think the world misses us i think that we should take our place back i think that we should be a little less arrogant, but a bit more confident in what we could do multi-laterally, working with other countries, and i'm concerned about the way in which multi-lateralism seems to be undermined at the moment
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manufacturers have softened in february south korea's exports have suffered the biggest drop in almost three years due to a slowdown in chinese demand japanese factories are cutting output versus lower orders manufacturing in china contracted for the third consecutive month in february. nevertheless, the pmi survey beat reuters estimates and came in at 49.9 separately, new export orders for the month slipped back into contraction, although total new orders came in at 50.2 the global index provider msci will expand the waiting of chiends mainland shares and global benchmarks later this year the move could see over $80 billion of foreign investment flow into the chinese economy. msci said it would boost the waiting of chunz large cap
stocks in two steps beginning in may, but it warned that any such future increases would depend on china's continued efforts to improve access to its markets. white house advisors have hailed progress made in trade talks with china that's after president trump himself warned he would walk away from negotiations if they "didn't work out." trump made the comments after a summit with north korean leader kim jong un ended without a deal or even a joint statement. u.s. treasury secretary steven mnuchin said any deal with china would constitute a "real agreement. >> these discussions have been going on for the last two years since the first summit that president trump had with president xi where he made very clear that trade was right at the top of the agenda. we've made a lot of progress over the last few months last week i sat in meeting with ambassador lightheizer and the vice premier we matd a lot of progress. i think we've comment odd we're working on 150 page document this is a very, very detailed
agreement for some very significant commitments, and these are structural commitments, but we still have more work to do, and we hope to make progress this month and if we do, there would be a summit between the two presidents >> walk me through some of the details in the sense that the mechanism to make sure that the chinese are going to continue to comply on the outcome of this deal because at the end of the day one of the things, as you know, for many have comment odd president trump's withdrawal from the iran nuclear agreement. he said again and again that the reasons behind that was not a comprehensive agreement, that really there was no way to make sure the iranians were complying. how are we going to make sure that the chinese continue to comply >> well, the president thought the iran agreement was a bad agreement. that was the real problem. it didn't encompass many issues such as ballistic missiles it had iran in terms of exporting of terrorism, and our iran sanctions have worked they've had a real impact. we couldn't be more pleased with that strategy. now, the president has insisted all along on our china
discussions, and he has been actively involved. we meet with him several times a week this will be a real agreement. this has to be real structural changes. we're dealing with everything from intellectual property protection to technology transfer to financial services, non-financial services, currency, and we spent a lot of time on a real enforcement provision. let me just say the deal is not done yet, but we've made a lot of progress. >> larry kudlow will work with the u.s. trade representative robert lightheizer in an interview with our colleagues. >> looking at the documents, whether it's all the structural issues, you know, ip theft and forced technology transfers and ownership and we're making movement on commodity and energy, such as soybeans and what not we have mechanism with respect to enforcement, which is, i
think, unparalleled, to be honest i think bob lightheizer has done a tremendous job progress has been terrific we have to hear from the chinese side we have to hear from president xi and his bureau, of course, but i think we're heading towards a remarkable historic deal that's what it looks like to me. we still have to get their sign-up. that's important i think we're heading for a historic deal. >> shares in sotheby's rose in new york after the auction house posted 2018 earnings and revenue that beat estimates. the firm got a boost from strong sales in asia, but offset concerns about an economic slowdown in china. global auction sales also rose 15% compared with the previous year with double digit growth in watches, wine, and chinese works of art the italian luxury jacket maker moncler has full year revenue that rose to 1.42 billion euro skbz beat estimates. the chief operating officer
roberto says he examines the company to continue its growth trajectory this year, particularly in china. if you look at the luxury stocks across europe right now, you can see bump for all of those. the swiss giant also up 2.2% tm vmh and carrying that up almost 3%. to be talking about yurp even equities, i'm joined again by sebastian redgrave from deutsche just looking that the one dwik sector, clearly a positive day for them are there specific sectors that over the next few months you think will outperform the market i wonder why you think those ones will. >> talking about luxury brands, clearly that is a sector that will benefit from stronger growth momentum globally as we expect, and stabilization. the simple truth is the sector already has rallied very sharply. we see no further upside, so we are just benchmark which are the sectors that haven't yet priced in an
improving growth back drop the answer to us very clearly is eight banks. we've seen 15% rally in the market hardly any movement in the banks. the message has not yet arrived at this sector if our macroscenario materializes, that's 15% outperformance for the banks remember, everybody was very optimistic about the sector at the beginning of last year. it's a levered play on growth momentum in the euro area in china and yet has further to go if this improves in line with our projections. >> for those of you projected winners, which sectors would you be shying away from here in europe and why >> that's a very, very simple answer, which is expensive bond proxies. we've seen a tremendous outperformance in the last quarter of last year when there
was a lot of worry about growth momentum you have seen sharp overshoot in the hiding places, the defensive hiding places such as pharma, telecom, utilities, and in a lot of these cases, this overshoot yet has to be priced out we see around 10% down side for farmer telecom already outperformed a lot. we've seen another outperformance, but other bond proxies like utilities and real estate, they have further to go to the down side that is as we discussed before for us the most vulnerable part of the market. >> one other question for you. if you look at the way people such as -- we're talking about the comparative performance of the u.s. versus europe for much of last year we heard repeatedly that the u.s. was going to outperform and did outperform its european counterparts, and i'm wondering what are your models telling you now about the relative performances of equities on both sides of the atlantic. >> that's a very good question since the middle of 2017 when there was a lot of enthusiasm about europe because macron had just been elected. there was a powerful narrative
since then in very simple terms, europe has underperformed by 18%, and we think that has further to go. partly because we now expect the dollar to weaken, which is one of the most interesting narratives in the market remember, the dollar was tremendously strong in 2018. it rose by 11% why? because you've seen a spike in macrouncertainty, and that's what rous the dollar typically to do well if uncertainty now starts to fade, and we've already discussed some of the catalysts, that would be a tail wind for u.s. equities because they benefit when the dollar is weaker plus, europe tends to be more sensitive to increases in the discount rate, ie a rise in rates, so if rates indeed rise as we discussed, then that would be a head wind for europe and it tends to affect the yourp even equity market more in very simple terms, we think that europe is already 5% too high, but we still have 5% up side for u.s. equities we see no reason to change our stance with being underweight europe. >> thank you for coming in we appreciate your time. that was sebastian redgrave,
deutsche bank. our separate hadley gamble was here in london for trade forum hosted by the jordanian government it was there she taut caught up with jordan's prime minister, and how he envisioned future relates with post-brexit britain. >> there's a historical relationship between the u.k. and jordan that goes back 100 years, and we've been partners through good times and bad times, and so this is the u.k. being there for us, and we're very confident that this is something that we can build on because jordan has been able to make its case. in terms of the fiscal measures that we have done to stabilize the macro-economy, the reforms we have made to make the private sector much more dynamic, the lower the cost of productions, especially electricity by moving towards renewables, and -- and
really taking full advantage of our talented young population. highly educated, men and women who are speaking both languages and are very tech-savvy. we very much appreciate what the u.k. is going through in terms of the brexit and negotiations, but we realize this is something that is happening in spite of all of that. we appreciate it >> when you think about what's going to happen next in terms of the regional situation for jordan, there's a lot of conversation about the rebuild of syria, for example, and the potential for jordan to be a base not just for regional companies, not just jordanian companies, but international companies as well give me the sell there >> well, what started already, what has started already is the close cooperation with iraq. iraq is a country. we've had long strategic relations with and a lot of the
iraqi investors who are jordan and moved to jordan the past 30 years, and we've reached an agreement with the iraqi government on a number of fronts, including logistics, trade, industrial zones, export of oil, iraqi oil, connect our grids, electricity grids together the momentum is quite substantial, and we really see the reconstruction process iraq as being an opportunity for both countries which have historically had great relationships. that's just one of the stories that we have about where jordan is going for the gulf countries, we are very well-positioned to export services and provide business process outsourcing, health tourism, higher education and
all sorts of services that accounting legal services, et cetera, that the gulf would rather have -- be done remotely from neighboring countries and is much more efficient doing it that way than having it local. as prime minister theresa may tries to build partners at events like that, the u.k. shadow foreign secretary, has said that the excessive focus on brexit has been to the detriment of the u.k.'s place in the world. >> we are in danger of disappearing down the brexit black hole i think that the capacity of the government has been sucked into this and there's very little room to do anything else we have an awful lot of things on our domestic agenda, a lot of problems on domestic agenda that are not being lesolved you can see when you go around the streets of london. you can see they're not being
solved i think the question you're asking me is something more. that's about standing of britain, and i think that there has been the number of problems that have arisen as a perform storm. i think there's brexit i think there's taking out of the foreign office of the department for international trade and dag a breck it department i think there have been cuts to our budget, and then, frankly, i think having boris johnson as foreign secretary has been a problem as well in terms of our standing i agree with you i think that actually we are in quite a good position in that we are on the security council and have enormous power. we have a great deal of understanding and intelligence about the world. the foreign office is a brains trust. we could use that. i think the world misses us. i think we should take our place back i think that we should be a little less arrogant, but a bit more confident in what we could do multi-laterally working with other countries. i'm concerned about the way in which multi-lateralism seems to be being undermined at the moment and part of that will is
that we seem to be drag u drawing back and just talking about brexit, just thinking about brexit, putting all the energy into that >> and coming up on the show, find out why a new report sees massive opportunities for companies that provide electricity to those people that currently have none. we'll have more on that after this break ahh potluck. these dishes will soon be yours to scrub. and they're not even yours. new and improved dawn ultra lets you scrub 50% less and get done faster. a drop of dawn and grease is gone.
welcome back to "street signs. european stocks follow asian equity markets hire as msci says it will boost the weighting of chinese listed shares in its global benchmarks. wpp shares rise after the company reports a better than expected underlying net sales in 2018 the world's largest advertising group warns that 2019 will be challenging and forecasts net sales to fall as much as 2%. moncler shares rise after the italian luxury brand hosts a 19% rise in sales and promises further growth this year a tale of two asset managers man group shares slump as funds
under management fall while jupiter's stock jumps after assets that delivers cost cuts and a better than expected dividend the kind folks at ihs market have dlird the pmi number. coming up at 52.0. that's the revised number. you can see there cable is significantly weaker against the dollar on the day so far what's interesting to me given my continued fascination with brexit and the implications is that the u.k. february manufacturing pmi stocks of purchases is up 59.1 that is the highest on record for all the g-7 countries. job index at a six-year low with weak optimism since back in 2012 let's take a look at how the european markets more generally outside the u.k. performing. the ftse 100 up .7%.
a similar story in italy with the ftse mib in paris, meanwhile, the cac is up .85%, and in germany a strong start for investors there. it looks like the-- let's check on the currencies. you can see that it is significantly weaker against the dollar by more than .1%. the euro also weaker against that resurgerient dollar by the same amount. the dollar strong bir half a percent against the yen and against the swiss franc. let's check in how u.s. markets look ahead of the open on the other side of the atlantic the s&p 500 with an implied open up 17 points dow jones looking to open 1 2 points higher at this stage. the nasdaq also looking to have a positive start to the day for investors in that particular index.
forecasting a difficult first half pointing to headwinds from those client losses. reed also struck a rather upbeat tone he added that investments in creativity and technology will boost. the london stock exchange group has announced 250 job cuts this year as the repairs for investors. brexit the move will generate an expected 30 million pounds in annual savings the group will not meet its target for erj e erkz marmargin. meanwhile, energy has announced plans to pull out of 20 countries over the next three years to simplify its operations that's why it ek pands in 20 other markets. ngo will invest another 6 billion worth of assets. it's due partly to outages at its belgian nuclear plants
julian yarks our colleague, sat down with the ceo and asked her about the results and the company's latest strategy. >> we posted good results. in 2018 we preached reached our target despite the very significant headwinds. we met in 2018 regarding belgium in particular, and, well, we handled that as well as personal i really believe and conceding that and delivering our guidance nevertheless well, we expect now to be back to normal regard, and we started to recommission our different plans. >> and in addition to your results today, you announce some bold moves in terms of your strategy you're going to exit 20 countries and invest into renewables, infrastructure, and services what led to this decision and what gives you confidence in
these new target markets that you are focussing on >> well, first, we delivered very well the first phase before transformation of programming. it was a bold one. i don't know if you remember, when we announced three years ago that we would be a move greener being up 50% for emissions and at the center more profitable, and, again, you can be worried because we are decreasin decreasing, minus 9% again, it can increase when we said that, everybody told us that's ambitious it's really kbribl really different we are effectively back to growth on the basis of the strong foundations now, we focused on businesses in a are expected the
three main components in the future, and being energy efficiency, the first of the future, renewable, of course, and also the gas company that is really expected to -- the question for us and that's what we explained today, okay, how can we combine these the best is to focus on high additive businesses. that's when we say we intend to become the world leader off zero transition for industry and for local output we really believe that there is a huge market there. >> that was the ceo talking to my colleague juliana there a move away from hybrid carbon generated electricity, it's helped in part to accelerate momentum for off grid clean energy markets that's according a new report from the consulting group wit mckenzie it sees massive opportunities
for companies that provide access to reliable energy and says that these firms will play a pivotal role in the transition to renewable power in emernling markets. i'm joined this morning by bennett tier from wood mac kenzie i have heard a lot about the concept of peak oil. is there a concept of peak electricity? is there a point where everyone in the world has access to it, and if so, when could that happen >> the universal energy access target is set for 2030 with the united nations that's what folks are expecting, but it's not clear that might actually happen. if you think about the energy transition, there's over one billion people in the world that don't have access to energy at all, and if on top of that you stack the amount of people that don't have access to reliable energy or clean energy, you can start to see where the energy transition is taking place, particularly in emerging markets. if you look at the market opportunity that there is for clean energy access, it's
massive, and we've started to look at the investment landscape here, and investment is growing quite significantly. we've seen over $500 million invested in 2018, and the secretary of stator is starting to mature, and as a result of that as the electricity demand and demographic changes happen in emerging markets, we'll start to see sort of efficiency gains in those markets as well >> so if you you are an investor looking at the world and you travel to, like, i don't know, remote villages in south sudan or niger or kongo, what's the up side to providing electricity to remote villages in those parts of the world, or is there no up side, and, therefore, they would have to be self-reliant? >> the value proposition of off grid solar, for instance, is displacement of kerosene and traditional biomass. there actually is a compelling value proposition there for the companies that are providing off grid solar >> who is going to pay for that?
presumably the expectation from the u.n. is the government will be responsible in large part for funding this >> in some parts yes. that includes grid infrastructure upgrades, grid based generation upgrades, offer grid solar, mini-grids, everything in between. that's a holistic number some of the estimates show that over half of that could actually come from off grid and mini-grid solutions. >> just in terms of the consumption per capital yarks i'm wondering where the predictions come from in the sense that you want to have the world to have electricity by 2030 that's the u.n. goal someone in the united states might have dozens of appliances around their home. someone in a remote village in let's say south sudan needs a light bulb and something to power their cell phones that they can maintain a business where do you find the estimate for personal or household power consumption that is going to be useful
>> so, again, it depends on sort of basic needs, right? a lot of these business models start with a basic electricity connection they're quite small. they -- like you said, they power a light bulb or cell phone charging or very highly efficient appliances the idea here is that these business models allow customers to sort of upgrade their systems over time as their demand increases. that means they can add additional panels or additional batteries or additional appliances part of what we're starting to see is that some of these strategic investors have started to look at how much sort of value can you stack on top of that basic electricity how deep does that really et >> okay. that's access. what about reliability you go to a country like iraq. you go to a country like pakistan you have repeated outages. this is a tried and trusted problem for people living there for businesses operating there what's the up side to investors of investing in more reliable energy in those countries, for instance >> well, it goes both ways on the on grid side, there's certainly a massive need for increased reliability, increased
grid infrastructure upgrades, but what wee also seeing is the off grid solar companies are seeing some of the most profitable customers in urban areas because these people want to defect from the grid just like we do here in the u.k. or maybe other parts of the western world. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you so much for koong in this morning bennett tier, a powerful renewable energy analyst that's the firm that's had that report out worth checking it out on their website. man group shares have slumped after the british firm reported a 0.5% decline in funds on the management for 2018. the hedge funds added 10.8 billion dollars in the new year, which it was hit by negative investment and currency movements. adjusted pretax profit fell 35% from a year ago. it's $251 million. it's still outperforming its piers. meanwhile, jupiter fund management is on its best one-day gain after they reported cost cuts and a better than
expected dividend. despite that assets under management at jupiter fell by 7.5 billion pounds in 2018, and the company saw net outflows of over 4.5 billion pounds while full year pretax profits fell 7% coming up on this program, the u.s. debt ceiling suspension ends tomorrow. what happens next? plus, the two richest soccer teams in the world meet for the second time in four days this weekend. we'll be looking at who will come out on top in the latest elclassico
welcome back to street signs. indian military officials welcomed pakistan's decision to return an indian pilot whose plane had crashed earlier this week the pakistani prime minister told the partly imin islamabad that the move was "a peace gesture. they insisted his country wanted to de-escalate tensions with india. pakistan said it shot down two indian fighter jets in the contested region of kashmir on
wednesday. that's after india earlier launched air strikes against what it said was a training camp operated by the mohammed militant group they claimed responsibility for suicide bombing earlier this month and killed at least 40 indian soldiers. the office of israel's attorney general said it would indict prime minister benjamin netanyahu. prosecutors accuse the veteran premier of accepting gifts and offering bribes in return for favorable press coverage they will contest a general election next month, and insists he is the victim of a political witch hunt he said the investigation and charges against him will collapse like a house of cards very separately, the u.s. economy grew 2.6% in the fourth quarter and beat estimates the stronger than expected fourth quarter held annual real gdp that grew 2.9% according to the bureau of economic analysis. in another metric, used by the fed which compares the fourth quarter of the current year with
the fourth quarter from the previous year. gdp grew by 3.1% take a look at treasury yeelgds there handled for the two-year 99.93 and the ten-year 99.05 separately speaking, exclusively to skr nbc, the u.s. secretary said the latest numbers indicated u.s. economy is on a strong footing the fourth quarter was correct. down slightly by the government shutdown i think we still is had very healthy numbers year-over-year if you look at fourth quarter to fourth quarter it was over 3%. otherwise, it was slightly under 3% it looks very strong >> tax refunds are up 17% week-over-week that gets us to the same level as last year i would just emphasize even if people had perfectly done, i think withholding is complicated. we encourage people to go to the bhoelding claeltor people really should be focused
on they're saying 39 taxes, and those lower taxes is moechb back into the economy, and that's why we have the economic growth we do >> the u.s. government debt ceiling comes back into force tomorrow, and unless lawmakers take action, the country could run out of money by the end of the summer according to the congressional budget office. congress had previously agreed to suspend the detd limit until march 2nd. the treasury may have to take extraordinary measures to keep paying the government's bills until it's raised once again giving testimony in the senate earlier this week, the federal reserve chairman jerome powell said politicians like alexandria cortez do argue the government can continue to borrow to fund social programs. well, wrong. >> the idea that deficits don't matter for ktsz that can borrow in their own currency i think is just wrong i think u.s. debt is fairly high at a level of gdp and much more importantly than that, it's growing faster than gdp. fairly significantly faster. we're not even close to primary
balance, which means, you know, that the deficit before interest payments we're going to have to either spend less or raise more revenue. >> to discuss this in more detail we're joined this morning by tony, the founding partner at hamilton based strategies, the former white house deputy secretary. thank you for getting up early with us. >> where is the next crisis come when it comes to the debt ceiling, do you think? >> we're at the start of a crisis season, i think i would say. we're going to get to the end of the fiscal year in about six months at the end of september, and a lot of things are going to come together. that's where cbo and the treasury department more or less estimate that will probably run out of the money available you mentioned the extraordinary measures these are the federal government equivalent of looking for, you know, nickels and quarters under your couch, your sofa mattress or your mattress, and then we have tax revenues coming in in april, and, you know, by the
time they exhaust those probably be at the end of summer. we also have the end -- that's the end of the fiscal year, and then we're going to have the end of some other gimmicks in government that could lead to some automatic spending cuts that could put some pressure on spending as well >> no need to look more money on the sofa for those watching who don't understand the minuta of how this works, where does the u.s. treasury go looking for these and where do they scavenge for the money behind the back of the couch? >> these are funds like trust funds and retirement funds that the government has been putting money into as they've been required to do throughout the year for, you know, regular spending programs. they're required to put money in those accounts the law allows them to shift that money around and use it for current spending this is one of those circumstances when the government has exhausted its
ability, legal ability, to borrow money in the markets. it can move that money around, but it doesn't get you very far. they are fortunate in this case that they do have the april tax season coming where we'll have a large infusion of tax revenues that will help get to that six-month period it's very big federal budget, and they have to be borrowing money every year in order to meet their spending needs. >> the longest government shutdown in history. see the damaging impact of a split congress right now i'm just wondering, should investors, should businesses, should voters expect further political brinksmanship when it comes to the debt ceiling specifically >> i am a bit concerned about it i know that there's even some people feel like we're going to get to the end of this period, and because, you know, people are worried about the election season coming up, no one wants a deal with not just the economic
cost of it, of course, which we know is damaging, but also the political cost of these kinds of fights there is a view that members of congress will get through this one of the big changes that we have is a huge new class of members of congress, but it's actually both in the house and the senate people who have never voted on a debt ceiling before and haven't dealt with some of the issues, and that's going to be more difficult negotiating with them because they're going to have demands for their votes. especially dealing with this for the first time you know, i think we should be cautious we should pay attention to the signals that we're laerg from leadership there is a pathway to do this. there's a pathway to get it done without the drama that we've seen from shutdowns. there is a chance that that could still happen >> thanks so much. are really appreciate it tony frato the former white house deputy press secretary there.
barcelona will be looking for a second victory in four days over their arch-rivals real madrid when the two teams meet in another el classico this time it's for the la ligue title race this is going to be another great matchup, isn't it? >> absolutely. when these two meet, it's always going to be a heated atmosphere, despite the fact they did only meet four days ash that only adds they're the two richest clubs in the world. barcelona are currently seven points clear in the la ligue title race it's athletico madrid, they have that lead at the moment. now, whether or not real madrid can do anything, they've already lost a manager this season there's talk of rifts within the dressing room. they're back in the title race a little bit, whether or not they can get a winner for barcelona would maybe dictate whether or
not they've got a say of whether they can win it this year. already this week barcelona have beaten them in the -- to get to that both teams trying to make it through to the quarterfinals of the champions league as well as very interesting in this country, though, back in the u.k. over how this game is being viewed literally being viewed 11 sports media had the right in the exclusive rights to la ligue coverage this season they had to give up that exclusiveivity they still have this game and also all of the la ligue games as of just a couple of weeks ago, itv 4 will be showing at least one la ligue mafrp as well there's also premier sports, another hd premier subscription channel that's going to be showing machsz towards the end of the season as well. la ligue are saying that they can have a multi-platform deal this is because 11 sports failed
to achieve a distribution network on a tv channel platform as well. >> sounds like enough proposition on that side of things thank you for joining us let's take a look at the u.s. futures as we saw about half hour ago it looks like a relatively positive start for the day for the s&p 500 being called up 15 points the dow jones not quite as high as it was a few moments ago, but it is still looking to open 150 points higher, and the nasdaq there also looking to open up around 50 points that is it for today's program here in london i'm willem marks coming up next, you can enjoy worldwide exchange with our colleagues on the other side of the atlantic
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here's your top five at 5:00 major shake up the retail world the gap splitting into two separate companies investors love the news, but should they? the full details ahead indexing giant msci raising china's weighting within its benchmark index. if you didn't think that you had a lot of china exposure before, you might just now we're going to break down the impact on your money and investments. tesla shares going down again. elan musk saying the company probably will not post the profit for the first quarter hbo's long-time ce