tv Fast Money CNBC March 6, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
for is the ecb meeting and whether we see a meaningful shift towards stimulus >> the euro has been weak into that. >> and a lot of sort of leaked reports to suggest they might see that, which would boost sentiment globally. >> this is still a market that likes easy policy. >> for now. >> that does it for "closing bell" today. thanks for watching. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast" it is the semis fall from grace. the group getting hit hard today. check out these names, all down nearly 50% from their 52-week highs. we'll tell you what that means for the market. plus biotech getting slammed today but a top analyst says more deals are coming. he'll give u his four take-out targets. we start off with high hopes. while the market is stalling, a number of mega cap stocks are going up, up and away. in the past week starbucks,
mastercard, proctor & gamble, nike and boeing all going higher >> right out of the gate. >> trade it or fade it tim, we start with you pressure is on you starbucks just hit a new high today. trade it or fade it? >> trade it. i know how to play this game the problem here, the valuation is one that i think is fair. i think in the environment also labor costs hurt starbucks as much as everybody. u.s. comps have suddenly turned a corner the company has been very focused on some cost cutting and mau margins in the u.s i think the story with china is the wild card and that's the place where so far they are one of the success stories they are one of the brands that actually is not run into, whether it's trade war sentiment or the reality of the chinese consumer is actually buying their frappuccino. stay there stay in starbucks. >> there's a viable competitor in china they have plenty of outlets. if chinese people wanting to
boycott an american brand, they have got an alternative. >> i get it. i get the growth story for starbucks is china, but you make a very good point. we're in an environment where boycotting american products in china is not an unreasonable type thing you need to be worried about. for me i'm going to fade it here not that i dislike starbucks, i think it's okay. but i think the market is vulnerable to lowering prices. >> the stock was dead money for three years and broke out late last year, consolidating in the high 60s >> he said trade it. >> it's a leader i think we've got to be long here. >> wow, that was scary for a minute. >> is that guy adami manning the machine back home? >> you've got to stay long here. 70 is temporary. i think 75 or 80 is where you're going here. >> i am a trade it as well you made a face. it's not a personal attack. >> well, it felt personal. >> i do believe china is the
question mark. if china is the growth engine, if there's hiccups along the way and there's competition, then it could be a fade it instance. ride now it's trade it. >> maybe this is a precursor of what you're about to say about nike, grasso. >> it's up 13% or so, i'd go under armour i think nike sucked the -- see what i did there, would you rather in a trade it or fade it. totally broke the rules, i apologize for that i think that noki -- i almost said nokia there let's do this all over again nike, fade it. i just think it's running out of gas here under armour has outperformed year to date, but i think it can continue to outperform nike. fade. >> it to me nike is an absolute trade. they have turned their business around remember, it was a year ago, yore and a half ago we were talking about innovation i know sneakers has become an
issue if you're a duke basketball player. but this is a company that is crushing it in china they are seeing north america where the basketball shoes have got fire again and that was a place people were very concerned. i like nike. i think it's by far the class of the athleticwear under armour to me, i hear you, steve, in terms if you want to buy a bombed-out story but that's the story i really -- valuation. >> but you bring up china again. i hate to rag on china here, but to me the story in nike, it's priced in that china growth. it's vulnerable to a hiccup. we get any hiccup in trade, any hiccup in the chinese economy, and nike is going to be the one that's vulnerable because the chinese story is nike in my view we look at what are future sales at nike, that's what you're worried about here i think it's vulnerable. >> so a trade war stock that is vulnerable during the thick of the trade war. >> right. >> and here on the other side, it's still vulnerable -- >> no, it's vulnerable because
we can get a hiccup in the trade war. right now we're pricing in, but everything is going to go great with this trade deal one its hiccup, you've got a problem with nike. >> chris, could you speak for me here, please we're two for two. >> nike, anything related to china is doing well. >> are you saying what he's saying or what tim is saying he's saying it's all priced in. >> nike was dead money for three years, it just broke out two weeks ago you have a problem with a shoe and the stock hits new highs. footwear broadly is a good group. >> nike recovered in north america originally. >> so he's saying trade it, right, chris >> right. >> he's new. he's new. >> he'd rather trade it. >> grasso. >> i started >> i thought you were going to comment. >> north america was the recovery in nike china was the last gasp, that
last motion up, i agree with b.k., something has to be in it. are we in the ninth inning or the eighth inning. that's the only price you get on nike it's got to hold these levels. 86 is the hold level. >> chris is next, mastercard, trade it or fade it? >> we're going to trade it this entire group is good. look at mastercard, january 31st, huge upside move on big volume the stock is being accumulated look at its peers, visa, new high, paypal, new high this is a leadership group 215 is great support on m.a. taking a step back, look at the big picture. 23 of the last 27 months, this stock is up. we love good trends, we love momentum, we like leadership mastercard is still it for us. >> trade it. the bear shoes are back on for the time being i think the market in extremely vulnerable to shocks
vulnerable to shocks in trade, to shocks in the economy look at the citi economic index. it's at negative levels. the market hasn't priced in a weaker economy add to that on top of mastercard we've had record consumer credit growth in this case. i just think everything is priced in. doesn't mean i hate mastercard. >> you faded every single stock so far. >> it looks like i did three for three. >> just want to get that clear. >> you know what i've done, mel, i've traded every single stock so why not follow my brother chris and tell you, look, mastercard, i don't really love the valuation, frankly if you look on a five-year, ets trading about 20 expensive to itself if you look at their top line it's been to me a surprising second-half story and something i think is carrying into this year i'm not worried about the consumer in this >> mastercard, i'm going to go trade it on this one transaction profit margins are
up 2%. this is a name that you buy, you look at a long-term chart on it, it's up, up and away it does do a couple of check-backs to technical levels and it has done so i think you're somewhat out of the woods, trade it. last but not least, b.k., procter & gamble >> momentum is your friend so you go with fade it on this one. momentum going me. i'll tell you why. i used to work with a trader whose whole game was buying stocks in the 80s and 90s waiting for it to go to 100. guess what procter & gamble did? it went to 100 and pulled back so in view of the fact that i think the market has continued to be vulnerable at 100, i'm a seller of p & g. >> do you take the other side, grasso >> yeah, i'd be a buyer. i'd trade it if rates are going to increase the way we think they're going to increase, the yield is pretty attractive i think it's a safety bet. i think if the market rolls here, this one goes sideways or
outperforms on a relative basis, i would be a trade it. >> i'm going fade it 100, big rounding number i think b.k. has it here it has risk down to 90 i think the big story here is discretionary is better than staples. why do i want to own a stock at resistance in a group that's not working. that's a problem for us. >> guess what, i'm going fade it as well. after a 40% move in a stock that to me has had a little activism in it, you've had a little dynamic people thought they were going spen oin out a couple new brands again, look at what's going on with food producers. it's hard to see where the top line growth is going to come here in fact this is a company that large l largely has been traded high are because it's less bad. i don't trade less bad, folks. i fade less bad. >> they're cutting costs and raising prices maybe this could be a not less bad story or a little bit good. >> you guys have been so good at playing this game, so good, you're going to get a bonus
round. boeing is the bonus stock. the stock of course as you know has been going parabolic, tim, trade it or fade it? >> i have to trade this one. the valuation is absolutely acceptable these guys are $17.5 billion in free cash flow in 2019 i think their order book is something that's impervious to trade wars we do this all the time or i do, this is the noncyclical cyclical stock because their order book is so strong there's nowhere else to go so i stay with boeing. >> grasso. >> this one i would fade it. this is the poster child for china trade. i think although it's been a spectacular performing stock, i think it's unwinding on an rsi relative strength index. i would be a fade it, even though i think it's a spectacular stock. >> yeah, so, i'm going to fade it. >> big surprise.
>> this one is what you said, parabolic. i'm not a geometrist:. >> what are we doing here? >> i agree with you, tim, the visibility into the order book is fantastic so you want to buy this when everything looks horrible when we get a hiccup in china trade, that's when you want to buy boeing, not at that. >> chris says there are three other names that are gearing up for a break. >> we're going to look at the s&p three ways i think what we need to remember here, when we look at the price action over the last really 12 weeks, we had 20% down in the fourth quarter down 20 over 12 weeks. now we have up 20 over eight weeks. so i think the big question is back to this key 2800 level, is this the real thing or is this not the real thing there's two possible outcomes. here's the bearish take. put a top in early last year,
you made a higher high middle of last year, failing at a lower high big top formation. that's not our base case i think the more likely outcome here is when we look at this formation that's taken shape on the s&p chart over the last couple months, there is just really good support in this 2650 range. i think you can get a pause here or if you get a pullback, 2650 action even 2700 will show up as good support i think ultimately that holds and it pushes us up to new highs. but ultimately under the surface we need the stocks to drive us there. what are the names that are going to get us there. i want to give you three the first we all know, mike soft it outperformed in 4q and 1q that is a loeadership name that we think gets up to 120. the other is in a bear market last year. this is facebook, down 45% in
2018 the stock was up today it had a broad sell-off today, facebook up. it's pushing up against new highs. it's showing up as a relative leader i think this is another name that can push the index up as we move through the first quarter here i think is the big test ultimately if this market is going to work, we need to get some of these banks involved i think bank of america has to be our bellwether. bac right at 30, really big level. you get it above 30 and the bull case for the s&p becomes stronger and what we really want to watch here is the relative strength of bac versus the market improving. starting to see a little improvement here with some of these banks. bank of america, facebook and microsoft can get this s&p higher. >> chris, come ban over to the desk and i'll ask these guys if they're trading or fading your picks. >> i like a lot of what chris has said
so first of all, on the market in general, i think it's about probabilities. the probability that we go a little lower or sideways from here based on the fact that you could have a bearish formation there, i think you need to take that into account as a trader. that being said, in a bearish environment, what was up today, the facebook anything like that, anything that bucks the trend, any time there's a divergence, that's what b.k. likes. >> biy the way, chris wasn't being rude, he was just drawing with his middle finger i think the call on the market is such that we're consolidating after a v-shaped recovery. in fact people are making a bigger deal about this the reality is the market is looking for signals on earnings. that does not imply what i think most people believe and have this fear of some type of a retest so how do we get to the next level, agree that we'll need it for mega cap tech. if you look at the names that might be best positioned to do that, i actually think it would be apple, because i think apple is an earnings announcement away
from changing the tide on something that really has been a headwind for the s&p it's the biggest weighted stock. >> how does the chart look on apple? >> the bearish case is so well known, apple has the fewest number of buy recommendations at any point in the last 15 years another name that quietly outperformed today, that's a stock that's getting better, another name obviously given the wait that's very important, get that working and it's hard to fight the tape. >> grasso. >> i think microsoft is running into resistance. i think bank of america, you look at the 2-10 spread, it's turned and is narrowing now. you need that to be bullish, you need that to widen to be bullish for the banks. i think the overall market probably comes here a touch lower than where chris said. so i think all of these are sells because the overall market probably comes in from here about 5% to 7%. >> we mentioned rates here, and i think what's notable is you've had awful economic data over the last few weeks
they can't push rates back below 2.65 2s and 30s have steepened here they're at a nine-month high so there's a change for the curve i think that's bullish for stocks like bank of america. coming up, one stock not break out, general electric. steven tusa says a $6 price target is generous traders tell you how low they think it can go. a flurry of deals in the biotech space. and later, what is wrong with the semis they are getting crushed this week we've got all the details. w rkit live in times square in neyo cy. much more "fast money" right after this this isn't just any moving day.
and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. welcome back to "fast money. " time for a buzzkill. shares of micron getting slammed today. meantime cleveland research jumped on the bandwagon and cut its revenue estimate for the stock. the move has micron down 40% from its 52-week highs joining other big chip names, get it big chip names, like nvidia, applied materials, advanced microthat have all fallen for grace despite the semis
outperforming this year. so can the semi stocks recover for real what do you think, b.k.? >> i don't think so. remember, the semis will lead most of the market they led the downturn in the market i think they're probably leading here if you take a look at semis and overlay them versus pmi or ism or whatever cyclical indicator you want to look at, they tend to trade together. we had another -- not a bad pmi report but a report that was lower than expected. i don't think the semis have priced in a slowing economy, just like i don't think the market has priced in a slowing economy. >> i think we need to put this in some context. a lot of these stocks were down 50% last year. i think the level here, 1300 on the stocks, is the make-or-break line i agree, this has been an indicator in terms of gauging turns in the market. but a 40% rally off the lows, you can come in 6%, 7%, 8% look at intel, up 30, down 2
look at taiwan semi, down modestly these are contained pullbacks. micron is the exception here. >> just to be clear, in the broader market i think it's a contained pullback i just think after a 40% run-up in micron, after a 12% run-up in the stock, the risk/reward is not as good as it was. >> i agree you make this a lot easier -- we should make it a lot easier than it is. d-ram, if you chart d-ram, that's micron. it's the micron gps for the stock. d-ram prices are forecast to come in the most since 2011. you don't want to be buying semi conductor stocks. >> so those trends aren't going to get better, i agree with that i'm going to agree a little with chris because if you look at where we got on semis, they outperformed the s&p by almost 13% in the three weeks from the new year leading into essentially where they started to pull back recently. they have only outperformed the
s&p by a couple percent the last couple of days a lot of that smh or stocks is the measure of the cyclicality and i think this is a case of expectations being recalibrated. spending on cap ex, spending on enterprise, spending on some of the things that were feeding where a lot of the chip technology is then being input, i don't think it stopped on a dime i actually just think you've gotten some technical levels here that are tough to get through. >> you mentioned d-ram prices. that is a commodity aspect of the chip industry but there are others that are not exposed to d-ram prices maybe exposed to some of the value-added components is there a differentiation within the chip sector amongst these or do they mostly trade as a cohort >> when you look at some of the defensive names like intel, that's held up remarkable here we talk about semis as though they have the only cyclical bellwether out there the chinese internet stocks have acted fantastic so there's a different message coming from a different part of the world --
>> well, we're getting close to a deal no one wants to sell in the face of a china trade dole, especially china-related internet names. >> i can take something from what chris said. you had his sentiment read on what was going to be the most affected alibaba is not a trade war stock but was treated as such so it's rallied 45% in 45 sessions i think you have a case here if you go back to micron, look, micron's issues are micron's issues it's an absurdly keep company. for micron it's never mattered >> but looking at the cyclicality seeing what's going on with the airlines recently, they're telling you things aren't as strong as they have been i look at transports rolling over, semis rolling over, that's a concern. >> for why one analyst thinks it's a buy head over to cnbc.com i'm melissa lee. here's what else is coming up on "fast.
ge is doing the electric slide, and one top analyst says his $6 price target is generous. but we'll tell you why the charts might be telling a different story. plus -- >> how did he do that? >> well, we're not quite sure, but the man who called the last big biotech deal says there are four stocks that could be a home run for investors. he'll tell us what ty arhee. there's much more "fast money" right after this
promising molecules in the pipeline as i said, we will be launching potentially five in the next two years, but there is more than 20 in phase one and phase two clinical trials. this is the best deal for bristol-myers squibb >> that was a sneak peek of the bristol-myers squibb ceo defending his celgene merger he will appear on "mad money" on cnbc at the top of the hour. celgene hanging tough today. this comes as m & a in the health care space has been heating up our next guest predicted a deal last week. >> i think the ones that are most fully integrated and probably most amenable with the whole host of manufacturing and technology in the pipeline probably are the biomarins, the blue birds, even serepta, srpt, and some of the smaller ones
that will probably never be a stand-alone include night star, nite, and axgt >> so what other deals could be coming down the pipe let's bring in michael yi, an equities analyst with jeff free -- jeffries >> we want you to tell us who's on your radar in terms of being acquired and acquiring. >> sure. in the space to be acquired, i think that serept. a, srpt and sage, both of those companies would fit into pharma very well. and in the midcap space, incyte and cancer genetics could be acquired. >> in terms of the bristol-myers squibb deal, does that go through? >> we think that deal goes through. there's about a 20% spread i think a lot of that will close after april 12th on the shareholder vote i think there's a big move on
celgene to the upside. >> what's in biotech in terms of its underperformance and how much is the resignation of scott gottlieb a concern here, an overhang >> i think a lot of the government rhetoric, a lot of political rhetoric, a lot of concerns about drug pricing has been a problem for the large biotech stocks i think you look and they have done nothing literally for 12 months it's been tough out there. scott gottlieb resigning has not been a good sign for biotech most drug approvals last year under scott gottlieb, most fda guidance, he's been a big proponent of gene therapy companies, two of which skruft got bought with him stepping down, i think there's a little worry but hope to get someone back there quick. >> not everyone has a crystal ball the way you have had one and savvy investors can't pick the outcomes you see are you better off buying the ibb or xbi where you get the large caps in the ibb and you get to play off of them?
you give up some percentage but you're not hurt. >> i think the average investor should be looking at the ibb and the xbi, particularly the xbi, which have the companies that have been acquired xbi is 15%, 20% off the highs of last fall. i think we retest that over the next six months. i think the xbi moves higher. >> speaking of the ibb, the top components are some of these names you've mentioned people have been waiting for gilead what's in the pipeline or what's in the crystal ball for some of those mega cap biotechs that need to do something pabecause f their pipeline >> two one is ve rtex their drug should get approved next year. revenue going from $2 billion to $7 billion i think it goes higher the other one is biogen. they have the most promising drug in alzheimer's.
if that's positive, the sector will we on fire. >> a lot of these stocks are bad meaningfully from the hillary tweet in 2017. how big is the risk to d.c. with some of those names? >> while it's been a political overhang, i think that's been a big problem for the large biotech where it's in focus. they're getting pulled up to capitol hill to talk about things it's been a tough one. i think what we're going to see is more rhetoric, particularly as you go into the 2020 election i think that's a problem for the large ones to a degree, unless alzheimer's works, and that's why we stay focused on the small midcap ones that are getting acquired >> inasmuch as large pharma companies might be the acquirers, could that dampen m & a activity or make it more difficult to get these deals through? >> that's a good question. with bristol doing the celgene, i don't think either will be doing any deals soon there's a whole host of
companies, whether amgen, gilead has a new ceo. you've got a whole host of companies still out there. i think the numbers are -- we just did 15, $20 billion of m & a excluding celgene in the last four months. still a lot to go. plenty of cash. >> michael, great to see you michael yee. would you rather, chart edition. abb or xbi, chris? >> xbi there's good support near 82, 83 they look the chart down from 90 to 86. maybe a little bit more to go but i'm a buyer here. >> it depends on what your risk tolerance is, because obviously the ibb leans towards those mega cap companies. so if you want a little more security, you're going to get a lot less swings from an ibb. if you don't have the risk tolerance, go ibb. if you're looking for that beta, go xbi. >> today's trading was so poor
both guys traded through the 200-day. if you're of concern, i don't think tomorrow is the day you go buy these things based on the breakdown technically. >> i thought xbi was the one to do i thought we'd have a breakout based on today's trading it looks like a false breakout so i have to wait a bit and see how this is going to shake out i don't think you need to go running into them right ow. >> you asked a question about the tweet and political winds. how concerned are we as traders? should a trader be when it comes to some of these stocks? >> this is the only problem i have with this one is when you say medicare for all, it's not a bipartisan issue it's not going to be pushed. but you can get an equal amount of republicans as you can as democrats to push -- who would be a proponent of high drug pricing? nobody on capitol hill. >> steven, i think michael when he says you don't want to own the ones whose ceos are in front of congress, that's telling. i think me mentioned incyte. stock, they took it from 150 to
60 it's been getting better i think that's a good small cap one here. still ahead, ge shares crashing after the ceo painted a grim picture about the turn-around and a top analyst says there is no floor in sight. plus can disney beat netflix 'vgots own game? wee t all the details when "fast money" returns now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a few years old or dinosaur old, we want to buy your car. so go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our techno-wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds. when you're ready, we'll come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. that's it. so ditch the old way of selling your car and say hello to the new way... at carvana.
welcome back shares of general electric getting zapped after jpmorgan's steven tusa saying that he has a $6 price target on the stock and that that target was generous. there's no floor in sight he says but our in-house technician says the charts are telling a different story for the stock. chris is over at the plasma to break it down. chris, what are you looking at >> i think this is probably a worth a shot on the long side given some of the weakness we've seen recently. first let's talk about what's wrong with this picture. i'm going to do it for you in three numbers. 533. that's how many consecutive days ge has spent below its 200 day moving average every single time we've tested the 200, we have failed. so what about this move over the
last few weeks do have we think is going to be different what about this move says we should step in and buy the stock? a couple of things number one, we had a big gap on january 31st right back to the 50 day $8.90, very good support i suspect that's going to hold i think the other big story here is when we look at the volume pro vifile of the stock, and mo importantly the up days, that has been more pronounced big up day, strong volume. what do we notice about the last two weeks here stock comes in, volume also comes in there hasn't been as much intensity on the downside. we think that's a message that this is a stock you actually want to buy into some weakness 8.90, 8.95 we think is a good level. we'd step in here.
>> tim, you're hoping that chris is right >> this is one of those stocks and the old adage you make the most money when things going from terrible to just bad. that's what happened with ge when it basically almost doubled in price i think this move down with which is 20% in five sessions could be an overreaction we just got that 10k last week and i thought some of that was relatively positive. they reiterated the outflow from the long-term care portfolio, which is something that is a drain on the company's balance sheet. it sounded like things are actually better or slightly better than had been thought net-to-debt leverage, 2.5 is still the target those things are happening faster than we thought it's not a great story but this may be a place where i think you can start to make some money again. >> yeah, i did not want to buy it when they made that sale because you weren't sure what was out there, but i'm starting to warm up a bit ge broke my heart several times last year. you've got the ceo who's kitchen
sinking it. >> until next week. >> well, but how much worse can it get, right? we already know the top analyst is telling you there's no floor in sight everybody hates it to b.k., those are times that i start to get excited about a stock. >> steven tusa had an amazing call he should just claim victory and stop right there i don't think he has anything to gain by saying it's a $6 price target or it's even going lower than $6. he won already. >> he's got to be somewhere, right? why do analysts come out and say it's a buy rated stock with a price target what would you do? >> i still own the stock. >> you want it to go away because he's saying there's no floor in sight. >> he's pounding it very hard that it's very difficult to be right on both the down or the up or keep pressing it once it's popped. >> well, we call this taking a couple of bites on the cherry. you can see the metaphor. >> i'm not sure who's calling it
that, but i like it. >> it's a metaphor i use. >> it's because a cherry is a small stone fruit and that's why? >> how many bites do you get on a cherry, folks, i'll leave it at that. the bottom line is this is a guy, steve's point is he's trying to catch it both ways good for him for having been right on the direction of the staub, right on the dysfunction, right on the balance sheet, right on the earnings disaster >> risk/reward risk/reward at $9 and you're still saying it's going below 6. the risk/reward if it turns into a 12 or $13 number then he's going to look wrong and not get the credit for the amazing call he originally had. >> one last question to chris here chris, what in the charts is a vulnerable aspect of your analysis which could lead the stock to go to 6, or is that scenario in your view just completely off the table >> nothing is off the table in this business, we know that. but i think the bear case is just so well documented here but we need to respect the fact
that the slope of the 200 day moving average is still down if there's a way to play this, we have to stick to our line in the sound. i think that 8.90 level, as long as we hold it are inclined to get some upside. let's get out to mike khouw for the options action mike >> certainly obviously there's a lot going on in ge right now unsurprisingly there's a lot of options trading. how much 800,000 contracts today. to put things in perspective, that's more than apple and facebook combined. one of the areas that we saw a lot of activity was the puts in fact that comprised the five most option actions were all puts some of it has to do with corporate action in the stock. they're spinning things off and so some auoptions contracts need to account for those new deliverables in the spinoff companies. the area that i was looking at, the june 8 puts, i saw a block of 4,000 of those trading for 50
senl cents. that would represent a decline below 7.50 for those to be profitable presumably the options trader is looking for the stock to move to the downside by at least 20% by june expiration. but i will point out in defense of those people who think there is some upside here, that there were big blocks of calls traileded too. dan is not on the desk today he's one of the guys that suggested if you're inclined to be long on the stock, that's a better way to do it. >> yeah. we were talking about sentiment when it came to apple, mike when you look at ge, the bulk of wall street analysts have buy ratings on the stock and that's really changed when you compare it to say the fall of last year, so the buy ratings have increased. do you put much stock into that, this change in sentiment here? >> well, we can look at the options sentiment, look at analyst sentiment. analyst sentiment in general is usually fairly bullish we've had a change in sentiment
from being bearish to more bullish. the options flow today, we saw about 30% more bearish bets than bullish ones all those 800,000 contracts that traded, you can think you can buy or sell a call, you can buy or sell a put. if you're selling a call you're making a bearish bet and the opposite in both cases would be true the options market, though, does tend to be more contrarian and more bearish than the markets are overall. that makes sense because options are a form of insurance. people who buy insurance are usually nervous. >> right, good point there mike, thank you. mike khouw in san francisco. for more options action check out the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time. still ahead, the streaming war is heating up. a top analyst says there could be a surprising winner we will explain. plus crypto jack piling money into bitcoin. is this the beginning of the bitcoin bottom the traders will weigh in.
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top analysts calling disney's streaming service a game-changer for the industry, claiming it could fetch as many as 160 million subscribers and that's more subscribers than netflix has. disney is pulling all of its movies from netflix in 2019. could they win these streaming wars, tim? >> why not it used to be about content and it used to be this was not a business these guys would spend the infrastructure to get into this business. i love disney. it's the best content in the world. 160 million potential, great the u.s. market alone to me is fantastic. the great thing about disney, though, is you're not just buying a cable company, you're not just buying a studio, you're buying theme parks, consumer products, and this gives them more direct to consumer. i'm long disney. i like this news it's not terribly cheap. but relative to itself, disney actually trades, you know, at about a 10% discount. >> disney could win but it doesn't mean netflix has to
lose so i think disney could be a buy here but it's in the trading range, chris will speak to that. you buy it at 100, set it to 120. yes, it's spending a boatload of money and, yes, it's tied to the overall market but i think no one would be a seller i'm a netflix subscriber i'll probably just buy a disney subscription too >> the way tim talks about the story is reflected in the stock here as well this was a name they tried to sell after earnings february 6th and couldn't keep it down, boom, it comes right back up 50-day average breaking above the 200-day so the trend is improving. you break above 120, that is a secular breakout and we like it. >> you know what, i like it too. >> no! >> i agree with what everybody is saying. i would add in the fact remember how horrible we thought espn was? now they have e-sports so to
tim's point they have multiple growth areas here. at 114, i will take that bet that it breaks through 120 all day long and twice on sunday. >> i get what you're saying if disney wins it doesn't mean that netflix loses, but somebody has to lose. people don't have infinite budgets or wallets for streaming services, do they? >> someone has to lose on a relative value in a stock pair if i'm looking at disney versus netflix, again, netflix is already out there with those subs disney could get to $160 million, be in control of their margins. why does disney trade at one-fifth the multiple of netflix? i think something is going give. something is going to give. >> so you think the multiple should come up towards netflix because netflix is valued where it is? >> i'm more inclined to see netflix valuation will be exposed for being absurd, but what do i know. coming up, twitter's ceo jack dorsey going crazy for
welcome back to "fast money. jack dorsey going all in on bitcoin, revealing he's maxing out the weekly spending limit on bitcoin by squares cash app. the ceo expecting a massive acceleration it was up in february, its first monthly gain since july. it's attempting to climb back to 4,000. so could this be a turning point? >> i think we're pretty close. i think we're looking at the thaw here. it's the crypto thaw we hadthe crypto winter. when you look under the hood of crypto, we're seeing some improving fundamentals the one stat i will give you, if you look at the number of addresses created on the bitcoin network, it's up 20% from the january lows it's at highs at the levels that we saw in spring of 2018 when bitcoin was well above 6,000 so fundamentally, you're starting to see improvement. you're also starting to see some institutional interest, some
high-profile investors endowments have been dipping their toe into the space and jack, he understands the payment network. there's a part of the bitcoin network called the lightning network that he has said it's only a matter of time, not if, but when that lightning network comes to the square app, that lightning network allows you to transact very easily at stores and that again could be another catalyst. >> and the chart is quietly starting to get a little better too. i think from a contrarian standpoint, the amount lost on bitcoin is interesting you made a low in november, december, a higher low in january, february. if you can break this out above 4,000, you're talking about maybe 5,500. i think there's money to be made. >> have you seen the inverse relationship between gold and bitcoin? when you look at it now, gold was ripping, bitcoin was off a cliff. you need the paddles, the life
pald paddles on bitcoin now when you start to see it rear its head and rise above, gold seems to be turning a corner to the downside. >> b.k., is jpm coin good or bad for bitcoin's price? >> for the price it's indifferent. it's a great signal because you have jamie dimon who did not like bitcoin is now dipping his toe in they are completely two different products so signaling effect fantastic. it's not going to displace bitcoin whatsoever >> a ripple? >> i don't think so because jpmorgan coin or whatever is going to be used just wiinth jpmorgan. up next, final trades.
time for the final trade tim. >> we did a trade it or fade it earlier on starbucks i'm going to trade it again. i think this company is growing 5% to 7% top line. u.s. is in order starbucks. >> beakers. >> the one thing we didn't talk about is oil, traded really well today even with negative news. xlp. chris. >> we talked about it on the charts, facebook got up through 1 sfen70, it goe
higher. >> grasso. >> i had a conference call with zenga today. >> that does it for us don't go anywhere, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach you so call me at 1-800-747-cnbc. for two straight months, this market was driven by fomo, fear of missing out that's what happens when you watch stocks go ever highe