tv Closing Bell CNBC April 9, 2019 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
having and the analyst concern about the glut that's going to happen with this sheet storm that's about to occur. so down grading stock -- >> i wasn't sure if you were misspeaking -- congratulations to tyler how about a round of applause for uva last night there he is with his son taking in the game. >> he was at the game. >> good for him. see him back tomorrow. >> "closing bell" starts right now. it is the final hour of trade, barclay shares up 11% this year. the ceo will join us exclusively coming up. and a no wynn deal we have details on why the casino giant called off its potential crown resorts takeover just hours after confirming they were in talks. and levi's is going to report its first earnings since going public we'll break down the numbers as soon as they are released just after the closing bell which starts right now
♪ welcome to "closing bell." i'm contessa brewer along with wilfred frost. lackluster on the day and the s&p is on face to break an "a" day win streak down 0.26%. the russell is off as well >> 10 of 11 are low. utilities fractionally higher, energy, financials and industrials down 1%. coming up one of the congressmen who grilled facebook ceo mark zuckerberg almost one year ago joins us with the questions he still wants answered and whether he says any regulation coming for the social media giant is likely >> let's get right to the markets now. bob pisani is on the floor of the new york stock exchange, bertha coombs. >> reporter: stocks are down today on a combination of worries about additional european tariffs and another down grade to the world economy
from the imf, the third one in six months bulls are again dismissing most of this. they insist we're going to see a soft landing in global growth and that china is already bottoming part of this muted reaction we're seeing. you see the usual declines, bow i boeing, you see the stocks down. we see some weakness in energy exxon and chevron taking a break from a terrific run they've had. oil broke below $64. and even tech is taking a breather ibm is down today. what a great run it has had up 25% for the year and that's the best start big blue has had in many years >> the nasdaq seeing its second drop in nine days. bertha coombs with more. >> reporter: we're seeing a drop across the board for most sectors overall, the large caps have had a nice run. chips the biggest losers today
but they've been on a nice run if there is more of a trade war potentially with china that doesn't get resolved, chips would be among those impacted. but until now investors haven't really been focusing on that communications today are really the outlier. facebook, as you talked about it a year ago, was on the hill and started suffering concerns about privacy issues, really dogged the stock. it is now up 12% from a year ago ann 35% year to date leading those communications higher. the big gainer today on the nasdaq is cerner, the electronic records company that has come to an agreement with starboard to put four new directors on the board. they've reaffirmed their guidance towards specific earnings growth and also boosted their buybacks that stock up 10% today. apple on pace to end, it looks like, its nine-day winning streak that's really been one of the big gainers. a bit of a rotation when it
comes to the faang leadership names. apple has been the big gainer. today it's giving up steam as we get closer to the end of the day. back over to you >> all right, bertha, thank you for that let's talk about the markets with our closing bell exchange joining us today been ladler and jack berugian. great to have you both here. jack, let me begin with you. what's the reaction to the imf cutting its growth outlook this year >> we're talking about the imf, historically so inaccurate after the fact analysis, the reality is this. half of their down tick was because of germany and all of germany really revolves around what's happening with china. if you want to know what the imf is doing, they're telling us that because of china there's going to be a slowdown globally. what they're giving us is a blinding glimpse of the obvious.
>> has it driven q1? >> it was about multiples rebounding not necessarily valuations at the same time the earnings were cut aggressively. i think they were overcut. i think the growth outlook we have right now more than justifies somewhat higher earnings from here and that will be the driver for the second and third quarter. >> how are we set up for q1? what is expected and where do you think it's been overdone >> consensus says negative 4%. i think markets are looking for somewhat worse than that i think when all is said and done for a full year 8%, 9% earnings growth. consensus says 4%. i think four to five points lower. >> if you're talking about an earnings recession, the imf global growth forecast, jack, is this enough to keep investors from driving into the equity markets globally >> contessa, there have been people on the sidelines basically for the last few
months talking about this inverted yield curve, about the slowdown and what happens the stock market just continues to go higher and higher. unfortunately, there are a couple things that are happening. this inversion that we're seeing in the short end of the yield curve is really a misleading factor it's really a consequence of what is happening in europe and what is happening in asia, the negative rates, the search for yield by these portfolio managers and because of that, people are unbelievers. remember, you're still talking about a very corporate -- healthy corporate america here and that is one of the things that we're probably going to see in the earnings period as far as the earnings recession goes, we might see a down tick but even the imf which is historically so wrong and conservative is still looking at a rebound in 2020 if they're off by a little bit. they'll see a rebound in '19 if that's the case you'll see a rebound this year in earnings, which is going to put this market undervalued not
overvalued >> ben, you're as optimistic as jack as well, but your sector positioning in the u.s. is still defensive. >> we've been dialing back the risk the first quarter was get as secular as you can 20% upside for the full year so that makes us two-thirds of the way there. you have to be more balanced the market told you how worried about growth it is in the fourth quarter. we're pretty sanguin on growth given we are having a slowdown, the debate is how much is that slowdown >> and you're overweight emerging markets now >> i think the u.s. is very profitable, and it is very exposed to china stabilization which markets just want to be bearish on it's been a huge pain trade. >> you like small caps in china. that's bold to be picking. >> and the u.s
i think what they have in common is good growth in this world where everything is slowing, you have growth in the u.s. and you have inflation in china both things -- and small caps are very cheap in both places. >> i was also interested to read that you think the concern over corporate debt has been somewhat overblown. why? >> the absolute numbers are very high the structure is very good cash to debt is very high. duration is very long. fix versus floating is very high corporate profit margins are high and we think sustainable. the numbers at first blush look alarming i think things look a lot better >> are you concerned about the shift in the trade dispute moving from china to europe? is that a harbinger of bad things to come >> no, not at all. if anything i think the president is absolutely right.
you negotiate from a position of strength if there's ever a time to go after the policies which, by the way, have been out of whack a good 20 or 30 years. let's understand why we did this remember, we tried to bring everybody into the new world union, the new world order we embraced everybody and, again, we bent over backwards. now the time has come to take care of our family business as they said in "the godfather. this is the best time to do it >> but brussels has already vowed if this $11 billion in tariffs comes from the united states that they will take counter measures as well, the ratcheting up is something we saw with china as well doesn't that restrict what we can do and just the instability and the unsureness that businesses have when that kind of trade talk ratchets up. >> contessa, europe is in a position of weakness look what's happening in germany. they're having a power shift
you have riots going on in france they can talk a tough game they can't deliver i don't blame the uk for wanting to get out it is a mess over there and the reality is it is more in their interest to make sure tariffs don't happen than it is in ours. and they are going to fight for it and do whatever they can. they are going to talk tough just like they do with brexit. when it comes down to it, they're going to do whatever is necessary to keep business flowing. >> ben, i won't ask you to give your view on brexit, fear not. just back to the u.s. very quickly, banks report on friday, how are they set up coming into earnings season? >> i think they will be disappointing. bond yields, the curve where it is, growth beginning to decelerate, i wouldn't be expecting big surprises. i think they're a value trap >> thanks very much, ben and jack still to come here on "the closing bell" jes staly will join us live we'll get his take on the state of financials as bank ceos head
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the latest polls i want to run you through the numbers. channel 12 and the state run broadcaster say 31 seats have been taken to the 33 seats for netanyahu's likud party. the blue and white party really gaining some traction and ground on this election this is, of course, an ex-army chief, a man, of course, who has been much like netanyahu beating the drum when it comes to security, national security. coming out very strongly for mr. netanyahu. it's very interesting to note in spite of the fact these are very early results coming out of the polls, this is a tight race to call the numbers are very close 37 seats for the blue and white and 36 for prime minister benjamin netanyahu's likud party.
there are 120 seats in the knusset. this is a parliamentary system whether or not mr. gantz will do that remains to be seen. mr. netanyahu has managed to do that time and time again if he held on to the leadership position by july he'll be the longest serving in the country people are saying this isn't just about security. they are decided on the basis of security but you have two hawks holding the lead between mr. netanyahu and mr. gantz. this against a backdrop of a booming economy. folks on the ground are concerned about things of daily life, higher cost of living,
making paychecks go as far as they can they feel they are the lead but when it comes to the economy may be voter fatigue for mr. netanyahu. >> hadley, thank you very much for that we look forward to a further update pushing for changes at sony by dan loeb. david, what have you learned >> reporter: it's early right now at this point in terms of whether or not mr. loeb will have an activist campaign at sony it did not end well where he was trying to get the company to focus on u.s. assets and monetizing them in some fashion to get to the underlying value we find ourselves in a similar position as mr. loeb where he feels the net asset, he did not comment, the net asset value
with the company is far above where the stock price is and perhaps an attempt that will be made by mr. loeb who has been buying stock through a special purpose vehicle. maybe trying to influence management to deliver more value to shareholders. the stock is down a bit. more recently over time it has been a strong performer and no doubt there is a great deal and even valued to other companies such as a netflix or an amazon or any of them out there searching so high and low to fuel what they need to provide to their direct to consumer base with their video products. all that said, though, what i've understood there's not a desire on the part of management in japan to sell in any way the u.s. assets.
is it possible you could get a spin or something mr. loeb will push for perhaps it will be it is early days here so we'll have to wait and see and, again, even though the new japanese management or new ceo has instituted a buyback, changed the leadership of the playstation division, nothing says there's an indication at this point despite what may be the desires of others to entertain talks with sony usa that there would be any desire on the part of the japanese to pursue even a partial sale for that unit. contessa >> a buyback is rare, dividend even more rare in japan. david, i'm interested in what people are suggesting the tv and film production unit could be worth. it's about 11% of revenue, much less profit and sony market capital about $60 billion. some people are suggesting it could fetch $30 billion. there seems to be a big gap as to what the numbers are here and
what a sale could raise for sony what are you hearing >> reporter: frankly, i haven't talked to anybody about the specific numbers we're not anywhere near a point people are making offers that would encompass that given the potential, at least interest in content producing assets and how it would line up with some others that there might be a willingness to pay a multiple above what is the current multiple certainly and, therefore, perhaps the value is above what the market is currently valuing the stock at or that part of the company t. a bit early to talk anything about values given there have been no talks that i'm aware of whatsoever involved this asset specifically >> david, while we have you sitting in front of a camera, it just seems so convenient, there's been all of this excitement surrounding the big unveil of disney plus this week. disney got an upgrade today. what do you think of this stock, this company and where it's
going? >> reporter: i think this is going to be a very important day, contessa, without a doubt, on thursday. we're going to be there covering it it is a change in the way disney pursues its business on thursday the investment community is going to get a lot from what i understand specifics. it's not going to be similar in some ways to what apple did a few weeks ago where they unveiled their plan in streaming but didn't give a lot of specifics. this is key to disney's business, key to its future and the expectation is you're going to get a lot of the milestones put out by the company that it expects to achieve in how much it will spend in terms of what it would hope for in subprojections for consumer entertainment and even espn plus service. you're going to hear about hulu and perhaps as well about star india. that was one of the key international assets it purchased along with fox india does become an important marketplace for disney so this you could argue is
perhaps one of the more important meetings the company will have ever had as bob iger outlines the future. questions will continue in terms of what's it going to cost, what's the hit to earnings near term, how big can the service get, how do you manage three services in the marketplace in espn plus, disney plus and, of course, in hulu which they control. so many questions but no doubt a lot of focus i looked at the numbers for point of reference they're looking for $3.8 million in losses between hulu and disney plus in 2019. and then fiscal year '20 really is what that is. fiscal year '21 $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion $35 million at disney plus
i'm not sure how they got so specific knowing so little and so much to learn >> the biggest question is that pricing. and if it's above or below netflix i'm sure on their share price as well. >> reporter: that's a key point. what will the impact over time be it's not just the cost of rolling out the service and we'll see the app on thursday as well it's the cost of lost licensing fees to the likes of netflix so netflix is spending as much as $15 billion in the next calendar year on content will be under pressure to do that. a key question as time goes by
and this is in the marketplace, will netflix's growth rate slow at all as there is a full fledged disney product people will consider as well. also the price point an important part of that >> david, thank you very much. we look forward to your coverage on thursday of that big announcement we have just over half an hour, 36 minutes left of trade it's been a negative session over 200 points. the low of the session for the dow 238. shares of wynn resorts up more than 45% this year but taking a dive after reports of a merger deal contessa will have that story coming up. if you're expecting a tax refund much less a large one, i hate to be the bearer of bad news your hopes may be dashed the harsh real tils of this year's tax bills later on "closing bell.
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he bell." only one sector is high. utilities. energy, industrials, financials all down more than one percent, a negative day today >> let's get to cnbc news update with sue herera. hello, everyone. here is what's happening this hour president trump welcoming egypt's president to the white house. trump denied reports that he is looking to reinstate the controversial policy of separating migrant children from their parents at the southern border >> just so you understand, president obama separated the children those cages that were shown, i think they were very inappropriate, they were built by president obama's administration not by trump. president obama had child separation >> under water researchers in turkey located a 3,600-year-old
shipwreck which may be the world's oldest it was found in the mediterranean sea off the southern coast of turkey they believe it was a merchant vessel from the bronze age estimated to date back to 1600 bc and christie's is preparing to auction off that beauty it's a historic faberge tiara. it was a wedding gift from the duke to his pride. it will be auctioned off on may 15th it is set with perfect aquamarines. there you go >> there you go. >> tiaras and eggs i thought they did eggs, that company. >> i wanted to mention that is my birth stone >> so there you have it. >> there's a connection. >> they should just give it to you really >> compliance on line two. >> we'll see you next hour now shares of wynn falling after terminating deal talks
with australia's crown resorts what's the latest? this is a weird one, isn't it? >> this is an abrupt about-face what we're talking about here. early this morning wynn resorts confirmed it engaged in preliminary talks with crown resorts in australia but didn't like the game being played and wynn took its ball and went home it said in a statement following the premature disclosure of discussions wynn resort has terminated all discussions with crown resorts concerning any transaction. abrupt yesterday after the u.s. markets closed media reports began to surface and crown resorts announced in a news release it had received a confidential bid, so much for confidentiality, of more than $14.75, australian dollars, per share shares of crown skyrocketed 20%. u.s. gaming and a cysts largely focused on the benefit wynn would get by expanding its geographic footprint in the region with a stable government and high-end asian play.
in its filing, wynn contradicted crown and said there were no structure values decided wynn's unwillingness to operate or negotiate in an environment of continuous disclosure as required by australian law post the media leak and david katz told me thoughtful companies do a good job of laying out capital allocation priorities, a sense of where they're heading but the notion of considering acquisitions hasn't been a part of wynn resort's discussions that's part of the surprise. there's been a lot of talk about it being acquired. it becomes the acquirer. it would have been a company that somewhat matched wynn's brand image, a billionaire founder who would have been the largest shareholder. and just like that taken off >> as you said strategically crown an odd one, it's pulled out of its european presence,
just australia now what about the fact that wynn has this court case at the moment and is debating with massachusetts? anything in play there >> i talked to a company that said this is a signal they think they're going to keep the license and it will free up all of this free cash flow that they could then use towards acquisitions it may be a message to tell the world they're interested in improving their geographic diversity. they want to play in japan maybe they thought this would help them get there. australia is not a vastly growing market it's fairly stable, and so this would have just given them the diversity they needed geographically >> fascinating turnaround of events thanks for that. we have 25 minutes left of trade. we're down less than 200 points on the dow a slight improvement the last 15 minutes or so. bank ceos are gearing up to testify on capitol hill today about the state of the sector ten years after the financial crisis up next jes staley is here to
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welcome back big bank ceos will be testifying on capitol hill tomorrow the heads of citigroup, jpmorgan, goldman sachs will be facing the house services committee to discuss the state of the financial sector. and barclay's ceo jes staley joins us first and foremost you're probably pleased you're not having to face a hearing no reason you would be, of course did want to get your reaction to the fact that this isn't like a wells fargo hearing where there was specific wrongdoing to respond to this is seven ceos being dragged in front of congress do you think that's fair do you think that political pressure ongoing is legitimate >> banks will always play a very large role in our economy given
how yubiquitous finance is. they're far more liquid. we've recalibrated risk. i think having a discussion about the engagement of the banking economy ten years on, i think the engagement with regulators and how there is so much more interaction between banks and those that regulate the banks and prior to the financial -- there are a lot of issues to talk about let's see how tomorrow plays out. >> how do you frame the sort of general anti-bank sentiment at the moment both in the uk and here has it improved during your time as a banker, and is it worse in the uk than here >> i think you do have to separate the reputation of banks collectively versus the bank you or i may bank with banks have advanced the engagement with customers and trying to do the right theng for customers. there still is an overhang from
the financial crisis and more trust engendered the uk was almost more harshly -- the encounter with the banking system there was almost tougher the two largest was royal bank the scotland much less capital but that, in turn, created quite a challenge and quite a negative influence on the financial crisis in the uk >> so tomorrow, of course, will drag your olds would jamie dimon to washington. i reported last week he had seriously considered a run for president and ultimately decided against it do you think he should reconsider that decision, he'll handle the politicians well tomorrow, and do you think he would do a good job in that position >> i think jamie of our generation will go down as the most impactful ceo of a major
bank i think he's done a lot for that institution. i think he's a great representative of the financial industry, but i think he's good where he is now. >> no role for you as his running mate at this stage let's focus more on the macro. the situation in europe has affected markets a lot recently. do you think the bad news is out, is it starting to plateau and turn the corner? >> i think the challenge for europe is all the economies have slowed somewhat. they may be gaining back a little bit of momentum we're looking for economic growth of around 2% across europe, maybe more positive and then brexit, we'll see how the impact plays out on the uk the challenge in europe while the economy is beginning to stabilize, for whatever reason it does turn over, if there's an issue with respect to trade between the u.s. and germany, the challenge there is the european central bank does not
raise interest rates for ten years. we have essentially zero interest rates across europe, in many cases negative. the balance sheet of the ecb is extremely large as they pumped liquidity into the economy so if the economy does weaken more than we personally expect right now, the ecb has very little firepower with which to try to reignite the economy if, in fact, it starts to slow >> what's your expectations of the chances of that happening? is it 50/50? >> i think we'd say it's more likely this year we maintain positive economic growth globally, china, the united states and europe although modest, inflation is still very low. unemployment rates are still very low we see modest growth and the issue, i think, should be at what points do the central banks need to reload their chambers by beginning with the united states had done raising rates nine times? should everyone be on the pause they are now it's a fair question
>> when we talk about q1 and capital markets, ubs said it was one of the worst environments he's ever seen do you see something as bad as that >> we're not going to talk about our quarter but clearly the shutdown of the u.s. government and the impact on the s.e.c. and the knock on impact in the ipo market and places like the new york stock exchange, that clearly withdrew activity in the capital markets and we all sensed that. the question as the marketplaces are reopened again will there be a balance in the latter part of the first quarter from what happened in january. >> and does a quarter like this make you think that your strategies having is justified when the u.s. markets have been stronger over the past quarter >> even prior to this quarter, in the last five quarters we have gained market share across the industry including the u.s. banks and particularly these would be the european banks that
seal to be retracting. the strategy is on course. we generated prelitigation of 18% last year. we have our target for this year a winning strategy is beginning to deliver and we're comfortable that it's the right one. >> in terms of the strategy your head of the investment bank left fairly abruptly. the "ft" said you suddenly and unexpectedly ousted him. is that what happened? >> i wouldn't describe it that way. we had a reorganization that we thought about for quite some time it's put in under our global consumer franchise combined with our payments franchise we do believe payments may be the real battlefield of finance for many years to come and having a singular focus on consumer end payments seemed like a good idea to us we also wanted to get closer between the executive committee of the bank and the management team on the ground in the
investment bank and that was the result of this >> does it suggest you're going to put less capital into the investment bank and take less risk there he was seen as take quite a lot of risk and they want to you put less money in the investment bank is it a nod to this move >> we got to the balance sheet we were quite comfortable with well over a year ago and we're not going to change those levels either up or down with tim moving on no, we're not taking capital out of the business. we're not going to add capital to the business either >> with regards to mr. bramson's stake it gives him a bigger stake of your equity than otherwise would be if he just bought the shares outright and it's been reported that structure is financed by a loan by bank of america what do you think towards the structure and the fact one of your rivals is helping him give you a headache >> he's trying to get on our
board. i do -- it's going to be interesting to me to watch the governance of long-term shareholders as they consider someone trying to be a board of director of barclays who is short 500 million shares effectively. there's no management at barclays that's allowed to short barclay stock let alone management that would sit on the board. the alignment of interest is just not there having someone short of the stock sitting and representing long term shareholders doesn't make sense to us in terms of being financed by bank of america, i'll leave that up to bank of america to answer. >> in terms of the threat, your last couple of quarters have shown strong performance in the investment banks do you feel you put this issue to bet, that you've defeated him already? >> i think we're in a good place. the shareholders recognize all the progress made. this time last year we were still negotiating with the department of justice around
mortgage backed securities all those things now are in the past and so i think we delivered a pretty strong underlying performance, more to come. we have to improve the profitability of the cib and we feel we're on track to do that >> quickly ask you about the u.s. card business apple announced a partnership with goldman sachs what do you make of that particular duo working together, a big threat >> i go back to the focus on payments and i think whether it's an amazon, an apple, whether it's a paypal, strike or what not, the whole payment space is a convergence of highly regulated banks, big tech companies trying to get different slices of the payment space. we think we have a great platform, like the speights with lots of challenges and opportunities. >> on brexit, there are so many things we could ask you about,
jes. a story said even the algorithms can't keep up with the brexit headlines. do you get brexit fatigue and think i have to sort it either way or it's going to damage our business and london as a financial center >> it is remarkable given how profound the decision of brexit will be one way or another how little volatility there has actually been in the financial markets be it currency or rates. tied to brexit you'll see a rally in a number of the financial markets there is a lot of fatigue. i think it is a challenge to the political institutions across the uk and hopefully they can come to a resolution that everybody wants which is a soft deal rather than a crash out of the european union >> i just want to come back to the political issue which comes up a lot at the moment in the
u.s. as you well know in the current political environment and with the bank ceos heading to political tomorrow. one of the things the house financial services committee released in their proprietary remarks how much the ceos are paid david solomon was the bottom do you think ceos are worth the money they receive >> i invite all my fellow u.s. ceos to come and work in the uk. it's a very different environment, as you know compensation is for board of directors to establish i think there needs to be some consistency across an industry, but i'm not going to comment on absolute numbers of any ceo. >> jes, always a pleasure to catch up with you. >> thanks, wilf. >> good to see you jes staley, the barclays ceo contessa, what's next? we are here at levi's post the share price $21.64, up 1.5%
on the day three weeks ago when it had its ipo, its share price was $17 the question is when it announces earnings today for the first time since its ipo, what are we going to look for there is a desert out there of analyst notes. we'll dive into the nuets ggin this earnings call today after a this earnings call today after a break here on "closing bell. this earnings call today after a break here on "closing bell. you'll be famous... at least amongst your digging friends. here's a thought, ever consider investing? e*trade has easy to use tools that help you get started. you like playing with tools don't you? 'course you do. ♪ don't get mad. start investing with e*trade.
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after the bell earnings from levi's, its first time to report since going public last month. what we're looking for in this report considering we don't have any analysts to point the way. >> reporter: exactly this will be an interesting one, contessa less than three weeks since the largest denim brand returned to the market levi set to report earnings after the bell, so just a few minutes away, up 27% since the ipo although it's about 10% lower than the peak levels in the past three weeks it's a brand-new stock not any analyst estimates. beyond revenues we'll watch for same store sales comparisons from a year ago, gross margins, and any guidance that they're going to talk about for future
quarters other items include company level commentary, also some macro commentary on the consumer and the economy, even labor and materials costs that have been head winds for other peers in the industry is levi's going to talk about that today even something as simple a labor availability, the availability for them to hire skilled workers, will that be a problem they face and talk about? these results more about actual performance numbers rather than any commentary on a beat or a miss it will be different being such cingo tcin fy. exti twah aew minutes. up next, we'll be back with up next, we'll be back with the close. ♪ i'm working to make connections of a different kind. ♪ i'm working for beauty that begins with nature. ♪
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who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. welcome back to "the closing bell." in the final hour we did make progress off the lows getting back towards them. the s&p is down 0.7% the dow back down below 200 points down 220 or 0.8% the russell lags 1.3%. only utilities have shown a little bit of green going into the close and indeed that is still the case up 0.2%
financials and discretionary all down over 1% so fairly ugly looking set of sectors there. the banks, of course, seven head to capitol hill. the decliners of the big six wells fargo won't be on the hill tomorrow earnings reports later this week >> and that was a problem. yields have been moving up didn't really happen today it is traditional to sell off going into the earnings season with the banks and jpmorgan and wells fargo reporting on friday. tariff and trade talks and running out of steam we had downgrades. they've been a big, big market leader amd was weak today micron was weak. down grades. that's been the main leadership
group in technology. additional tariff talk in europe that destroyed all the industrials. a tough day for boeing, 3m and united technologies. >> thank you very much at the bell we are down 0.7% the s&p down 0.6%. russell is the laggard down 1.2% the nasdaq down half a percent contessa, back to you. i'm contessa brewer in here at "closing bell." wilfred frost will rejoin me in a moment it's been a rough ride s&p has dropped 5.59%. the russell 2000 down. the imf cutting its global growth outlook
steel stocks slumping and levi's earnings momentarily joining us to talk about the market day, the director of research at iron side's macroeconomics and chief global strategist at deutsche bank. gentlemen, great to see you today. barry, to what do you attribute a tough time on wall street today? what was keeping stocks down >> i would have expected some sort of a pullback ahead of earnings season given the magnitude of the run i wouldn't make too much of a 60 basis point down move. i suppose you could toss some trade concerns in there. on balance a tremendous run and consolidation would be constructive so that we don't go into earnings season right at the highs given the difficulties we're going to see, at least a handful of names >> we're seeing caterpillar drag on the dow, boeing as well
that has been the case the last few weeks. to what do you attribute needing to regain some of the steam. >> sure. some is only the trade headlines and there is the backdrop, though i would argue this is very, very old news. global growth will be lower. that makes more sense to talk about in q4 rather than now. the question is very different now. the question now is is q1 going to be the bottom in global growth >> when we look at the q1 earnings and where we might see some softness, potentially the banks where they come out, we're going to start seeing those come out on friday, where will you look for signs of optimism, barry? >> well, for me the key issue if there were two concepts i would like to see through earnings season -- three actually one is revenue growth remain at 5% or better i don't believe there will be the kind of margin contraction
that is being discussed. i think it will be highly concentrated in a handful of names. the second the banking sector continues with the return on assets and equity jump that they saw in the fourth quarter, which i think is a consequence of a significant change in asset mix from government securities to private sector loans that was a quantum leap. that would be issue number two issue number three, what is capital spending, software, the cloud look like. that's what has been driving capex. given the softness the outlook is solid the rest of the year >> will it be a positive or
negative >> out of the last 24, 21 have been positive for the market average returns are pretty solid 3% i would argue in terms of the information we get in terms of the aggregate numbers it should not really be a market mover minus 2.5% growth. that's 3%. it's slightly positive numbers if you look at our top down model it says pretty much the same thing an earnings point of view, we expect an average quarter. i would say the number one thing that you want to be looking for the fact that big global growth scare last year, and the market
looks priced for current growth. the s&p 500 is somewhat unique in the sense that it provides basically, you know, a window into what i would argue is the number one issue for global growth which is really europe, pretty significant share of sales for the s&p 500 come from europe and why europe has slowed so much and germany in particular is probably the most important question >> the imf slashed its forecast for 2019 to 3.3% from 3.5% citing risks like trade tensions, tighter monetary policy to that point is the imf reactive rower than proactive? is most of the bad news already out there in the marketplace >> i worked for the imf for 17
years. this is very old news. completely reactive i would say. >> what i wrote about most recently was we went through the second shock the first one was the investment bust and heavy industry sector which took chinese imports from plus 10% to minus 20% sending commodities into a bear market and the emerging markets, brazil, into the worst recession they had in some 50 years. it doesn't have the same order of magnitude if you look at chinese ppi or revenue and sales, we had a big shock in exports and trade,
january into february. it looks like it's bottoming we're on the upside of this. i think the imf numbers are very much old news. >> because of the second shock, where do you see this going? >> basically the big difference this cycle versus last cycle is that global trade grew at three times when globalization was still expanding. this cycle global trade is growing at the same growth rate. it is no longer expanding. it will recover. it was stronger than it should have been ahead of the potential tariffs. you may even see people waiting out to see if the tariffs are removed but it should stabilize in the second and third quarter in which case the whole of germany is going into a recession. we just go on our merry way.
>> you want to come back to one point in terms of earnings banks report on friday, what are your expectations there? >> yes, i'm overweight banks and the main issue really is global growth and whether it will turn around and whether we found a bottom for rates i would check the box and bet on both in terms of what we're looking to hear and understand is how we know how the early part of the quarter went for the banks i would argue that's pretty well in the estimates the question is whether the quarter turned around in activity >> the trade war threatened to disrupt profits. new steal production ram ms up,
the stealmageddon comes the same way on the european union including on steal imports to the point what impact this has on global risk >> i view this as way behind the times. it was 2014 when the world woke up and realize d there was 50% f the world's excess capacity. i think that story is way behind us and to think u.s. companies would build up enough capacity to potentially add to that in china. i think china wants the trade deal in part as cover to start
aggressively cutting that capacity they know that they have steal workers going to work every day and not -- with nothing to do. so that's a much bigger factor for what happens to global steal capacity than any u.s. steel or anybody else might build >> i would just add that tariffs are really bad policy instrument, and they might be a good policy instrument for negotiating, but what is basically happening is very, very clear as a result of the tariffs. the u.s. is going to increase its ste its steel capacity global steel capacity has no reason to come down. we put on the tariffs, raise steel prices and global capacity will go up there's only one direction where future prices are about to go as
a result of tariffs. you look at stock. >> my perspective, china was in a very bad spot, putting tariffs on actually let them off the hook in a way. finally cut it when they forced pressure. >> meantime we have the first earnings report public company for levi's and the details first. >> the revenue numbers 1.44 billion, up 7% from a year he go that's better than last year's first quarter. if you look at the stock reaction, up estimates, seemingly liking these numbers now. the americas, a 9% increase in net revenue and 11% increase in
operating income that's the quick story here on levi strauss back to you. >> eric, thank you for that. joining us now is liz dunn, founder and ceo of pro forma stacy, let me begin with you what do you make of the numbers? stacy, can you hear me >> doesn't look like stacy can >> liz, what about you, do you want to give us some reaction? >> the revenue number was less growth than the fourth quarter the guidance and, again, this is first blush. we're kind of finding our way with this one. the revenue guidance for the year looks light but if you read the release says they're losing
the benefit of black friday. it's a good result the gross margin a little soft again, that was currency and growth across geographies, the americas, europe and asia. >> where are the big opportunities for the next leg of growth? is it different channels >> category, i mean women and tops i think they have growth across all of those and the channel opportunity moving more towards direct to consumer has a natural margin benefit we've seen that play out over time as we looked at recent history. they are seeing margin benefit >> and as they start to get a few more quarters from levi's. >> there aren't, i guess, the
spinout would be an interesting competitor since it is spins off their business the team companies like american eagle, abercrombie, look at gap and old navy this is so global and has strong opportunity across many geographies. >> does that americana brand hurt them in ratcheted up trade tensions with europe >> this is a brand with long history. it's been around for more than a century. the americana brand is entrenched and i don't think will hurt them from a perception standpoint they haven't seen not facing trade and tariff concerns
immediately. the situation seems to change daily. >> liz, thank you for joining us don't miss tomorrow, levi's ceo chip bergh at 1 1:00 a.m. on "squawk alley. "before the broader markets, these ipos, how crucial is it the first couple quarters go well and we get some of the others to come >> i wouldn't take too much away from it. you mark it for things getting exuberant and i've never ascribed any mark value. there's a huge amount of p/e
money, for example, and it is going to need to gain liquidity over time. >> back to the global environment, when do you see the market coming around to your view and perhaps that the reaction we might see to the yield curve here >> so on earnings i would argue that we do have a typical 3% to 5% pullback. they happen every two or three months it's been 3 1/2 months without one. short answer is complicated three months but it will take a little while >> we'll leave it there. a news alert on netflix. julia? >> netflix is in talks to buy the egyptian theater in
hollywood according to a source close to the situation it is owned by american cinema tech where you can go for film it would be a venue and perhaps most important this could be a way for netflix to get around those theatrical distribution rules to qualify for the oscars. interesting how they could use this as a venue to play their movies to qualify a number of times over the course of a day and that way they could get around those motion picture academy rules. of course those are under consideration right now as they evaluate the rules for next year certainly would be a symbolic move for netflix's big splash in hollywood. you see shares up about 1% today. back over to you >> and, julia, to your point this is one movie theater as opposed to a chain so it looks like symbolic and strategic as opposed to a broad change in
strategy >> this is not a massive movie theater chain. if they were to make this purchase, interesting how they could use it when it comes to those academy rules. there are rules that for a movie to qualify for the oscars it has to run a certain number of times a day for a certain period of time so if the academy doesn't change the rules they could say take a film like roma and give it a qualifying run instead of in landmark theaters which is what netflix did this time they would already have a theater where they could do that though it does sound if this deal were to go through you would be able to find vintage movies most of the time. >> i wonder if they do netflix original popcorn >> the academy has been warned by the justice department that those rules might violate monopolistic kinds of things and might not work >> a lot of moving parts to it, no doubt it's been a year since facebook
ceo mark zuckerberg apologized for the privacy scandal. >> we didn't take a broad enough view and that was a mistake, it was my mistake, and i'm sorry. >> congressman greg walden grilled him last year. he will tell us whether facebook has done enough to fix its problems >> and president trump threatening billions of tariffs. the latest on the trade tensions the latest on the trade tensions later on "closing bell."you cant savings with pacific life and create the future that's most meaningful to you. which means you can retire, without retiring from life. having the flexibility to retire on your terms. that's the power of pacific. ask your financial professional about pacific life today.
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facebook remains on the hot seat a year after mark zuckerberg was grilled on capitol hill over privacy and offensive content. julia boorstin with what facebook has fixed and still has to address >> reporter: facebook has made a range of changes first, remember that zuckerberg pledged to protect user privacy. take a listen. >> in response to these issues we've changed a lot of the way our platform works >> now in addition to limiting
developers access to data facebook extended most of european privacy law protections worldwide. a tool to clear history and is making all messaging encrypted they are meaningful but haven't stopped leaks. 30 million user accounts were exposed in september and last week we learned that 500 million users' information was exposed by a developer second zucker berle promised to tackle the issue with more employees. zuckerberg committed to invest manipulation it did work for the u.s. midterms it pulled down hundreds of accounts and pages but the challenge of protecting elections is just starting with india's elections this week and then the eu elections in may wilf, back over to you >> julia, thank you for that
the chairman of the house committee on energy and commerce at the time, representative greg walden, had some pertinent questions about facebook >> facebook has certainly grown, i worry it may not have matured. i think it's time to ask whether facebook may have moved too fast and broken too many things what is facebook social platform, a data company, an advertising company, a media company, common carrier, all of the above or something else? >> joining us now to give us his take one year on after those hearings, thank you for joining us have they matured in the last 12 months >> one step forward, two steps back it seems every day there's something else we've learned i think they're working at it but have a long way to go to rebuild trust. this is one of the biggest platforms, one of the biggest
companies in the world and they don't have it all figured out yet. i think that's a problem the breach of trust is real and that users need to understand and really have confidence that what facebook says they're doing they're actually doing when it comes to reporting their data. there was a report that 540 million records are stored on a cloud in mexico that might expose users' i.d. and other personal information that shouldn't happen. they still have issues to overcome calling for regulation of his own company, what do you make of that the government is asking him, other governments around the world to police what's on his
platform that's hard to do. we're not artificial intelligence engineers here in washington or anywhere else around in sight of government leadership they do the things they're committed to do. >> if congress hasn't passed regulations or requirements, hasn't passed the laws that require this to be their job, how is it their job? >> i think in some situations social media platforms have not added to decency or civility and i think they're trying to protect elections from fraud, you talked about the issue involving the mosque shooting. they know what's right and wrong. they have a responsibility in the community square to get it right. we have a responsibility, too,
to pass a national privacy law and set the standards here for america and consumers and companies that make sense. >> why do you think that isn't done >> there's more interest after the european union passed its proposal or its law into effect. users want to know what are you doing with my data, what control do i have over my own data, and we have instances that didn't happen and other providers as well i think the whole issue has come upon our stage of public policy and we have to figure out the
right path forward legally >> it's not just social media companies. what is facebook, is it a media company, social? you could ask those same questions about amazon so many of the big companies that we rely on in our daily lives are not one thing to one person there are lots of different things how complicated is the job ahead of lawmakers truly to institute some regulation about cyber security and privacy, our election that just how complicated? >> when i chaired the subcommittee on telecommunications we did a number of hearings on cyber security and every witness said first do no harm don't lock us into things that people who are trying to do harm will know we have to do and this thing is so dynamic. they'll move around.
we have requirements in law. the same with your health records. we have to do more we're debating 20 feet net neutrality and the democrats say this will make it free from any abuse. some of these things are occurring. who is writing the algorithms. and so this is a huge issue. we need their help to do that. >> good luck in that task. >> thank you so much appreciate that. >> thanks for having me on >> still to come, less than a week until tax day refunds are down $6 billion from last year.
find out why that could end up hurting the economy. >> plus, the final season of "game of thrones" kicks off this week we may not know who will end up on the iron throne, we know about the salaries of the stars. - hello, i'm brad castillo. did you know that americans who bought gold in the year 2005 quadrupled their money by 2012?
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32 minutes past the hour time for a cnbc news update with sue herera >> thank you here is what's happening this hour, everyone a public health emergency has been declared in new york city as a result of the measles outbreak mayor bill de blasio said unvaccinated individuals living in the brooklyn neighborhood of williamsburg will be required to get the vaccine. >> the only way to stop this outbreak is to ensure that those who have not been vaccinated get the vaccine. it's crucial for people to understand the measles vaccine works. it is safe, it is effective, it is time tested red drift algae taking over the beaches in florida ft. myers beach town leaders say nutrients in the water and the warm, sunny weather are to blame for the flare-up they say the marine life that typically eats the algae are not in the water because of last summer's red tide. ucla has a new head
basketball coach mick cronin will join the storied program. he has agreed to a six year, $24 million contract ucla fired steve alford during the past season. you are up to date that's the news update this hour wilf, contessa, back down to you. >> sue, thanks very much meantime, investors are waiting to an end of trade tensions with china. they may need to star worrying about a tariff fight with the european union we'll discuss next nearly half the nba is reportedly losing money. when you exclude revenue sharing. coming up, the president of the philadelphia 76ers tells us how the league can fix that profit problem. and tomorrow don't miss the exclusive interview with steven mnuchin on trade, the state of the economy, and much more, 301: p.m. tomorrow on "the exchange." ♪
u.s./europe trade dispute that had gone mostly quiet but is ramping up again the u.s. trade representative outlined $11 billion in european goods that could be subject to new tariffs including aircraft, wine, and 40 different times of cheese it's retaliation for europe's subsidies and competitor airbus. president trump tweeting the eu has taken advantage of the u.s. on trade for many years. it will soon stop. three aides tell me the goal is to pivot to negotiations with europe that have stalled once trade talks have concluded a may 18th deadline to chart its next step on auto tariffs that would largely impact europe which is why president trump suggested this four-week time frame for an outcome or a china deal because it would end just before that new auto tariffs deadline china said it's not committed and brussels for its part called the threat exaggerated
we know president trump has shown he's not one to back down even amid criticism. guys >> kayla, how hard does this hit the eu if it went through? clearly we know it angers them and frustrates them a lot. things like bmws are largely built in the u.s. in terms of the numbers sold here. >> that is true. of course that pertains to the auto tariffs portion of it this new tariff list is $11 billion. the trade between the u.s. and european union it's fairly small. like the retaliation we've seen, it's designed to be politically sensitive, to hit certain countries and certain regions where it hurts the most. the fear from the u.s. side, from critics from the white house and its trade agenda is that europe would then retaliate with politically sensitive targets of its own here in the u.s. and this could go back and forth for quite a bit longer >> kayla, thank you very much.
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final season beginning on hbo. and while fans are counting down the actors are cashing in, the actors who portrayed john snow and jamie and tyrone >> wait, wait. you cannot be a huge fan if you don't know the names >> reportedly made an estimated half million dollars per episode. sansa, arya made $175,000. quite far through the seasons means the actors cash in on more, compare it to the final bits of "friends" $1 million an episode. i thought they would get more. >> i know, $500,000 doesn't seem that much. you find out west world was a big hit, $250,000 for top name talent there are so many shows, they're diluting what actors can make for a hit show >> well, in general tv actors
have had a fantastic run as more money has gone into it for the top, top, top ones not as high as it used to be >> arya stark, i'm just saying, i wasn't going to say i was a huge "game of thrones" fan >> i only got one wrong. >> confusion reigns in the yogurt aisle not just around hbo shows. apparently there's been a decline in sales the past two years. the number of varieties in the average supermarket that they carry rose 4%. 306 varieties. however, overall sales fell 6% last year. general mills ceo tells "the wall street journal" it's more difficult to shop. more numbers, greek yogurt fell 11%. icelandic yogurt rose 23%. >> why is that >> it has less sugar the help conscious among us, this fancy brand by general
mills had $100 million in sales its first year >> i wonder if those sales will fall now that airlines have collapsed. >> no, one has nothing to do with the other >> really? >> here is my question, if you have lagging yogurt sales, and this has been a place where dairy producers can send their milk, what's it going to do to the dairy producers already on tough times? >> surely the biggest theme behind all of this was a decade ago everyone was like milk is really healthy, you should have it, now everyone is obsessed with trying everything but dairy milk >> that's the other thing. >> that's surely the biggest factor >> you have coconut yogurt, plant-based yogurts that are competing with the regular yogurt and now savory yogurts. there's too much choice. choice abounds >> these statistics. and icelandic yogurt as well still ahead, the big business of basketball how one team doubled its value in two years the president of the 76ers is the president of the 76ers is hereworried about my parents' retirement.
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the average nba team is worth $1.9 billion, up 13% year over year according to "forbes." the philadelphia 76ers has managed to double its value to $1.7 billion in two years. a title could drive that higher. they begin their title chase saturday with the start of the nba layoffs. >> for more on the fate of the fortunes of the 76ers we're joined by team president chris heck chris, great to see you today. congratulations on a great run so far >> oh, thanks. we're having a good time, and we think this is just the
beginning. >> the numbers are really astonishing here tv rateings in a year were up 40%, you're leading in attendance, you're in the top three of season ticket holders, international sponsorships are returning a lot of money to the value. to what do you owe such incredible success in the value of this company, of this franchise? >> sure, i think what our managing partners, josh harris and david blitzer, when they put this team together it was for a long plan. we were looking at a lens that was let's build it up locally, grow it nationally, and then eventually launch it internationally. and we're at that point right now where we're seeing the fruits of the patience and the labor and the discipline over the last six years >> why do you think the nba has done better overseas, as you just alluded to, particularly in
china than some of the other big u.s. sports? are there things they could replicate or is it unique to the sport? >> number one it all started with the dream team in '92, and the popularity that team playini barcelona which now has brought the league and the nba where every team, all 30 teams have international players. so that's number one and, two, and i think that the vision of adam silver and david stern before him set the stage and were just so far ahead of all the other sports leagues throughout the world >> when you look at esports growing very fast is that a threat or an opportunity overall? >> oh, we think it's a great opportunity. at harris sports and entertainment we actually own
digni dignitas which is a number of different sports globally and we just added in the past year an nba 2k team and the nba laurined this league and we've had a very robust participation, wantnot oy with each of the city, but having a global view of it and fortunately, we've had a lot of success and we're one of the top teams in the league currently. >> and chris, pennsylvania has now legalized sports betting what does that do for the commitment, the enthusiasm and the engagement of your fans? >> you know, in philadelphia, there's no better sports fan in the world and they are true to their four core major league teams and certainly the sixers are right there in the mix so i think that sports betting is going to be successful in pennsylvania, and certainly in
the philadelphia area, but we'll embrace it it's part of the world we live in and we've had some great success with some of our other properties outside of pennsylvania >> chris, there's currently a government investigation into whether or not nike inappropriately played college basketball players is it time for the entire college basketball is reformed such as there's no incentives for anything to take place like this in the first place? >> well, i think that this is a very difficult question. the good news is adam silver is running the nba. we have full faith in what he has brought to the table and what his future looks like i know the collaboration from being a former nba and with basketball and the ncaa they'll be active and do the right things it isn't easy, and this will be
something that takes several more years to figure out, but i do trust the leadership there. >> chris, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> chris heck there. we've got a news alert on trade to china elan has the details >> steve mnuchin testifying on capitol hill before the house financial services committee he's been saying that there is progress on the talks with china and today he said he'll be speaking with china's vice premier liu ha with light hiser. that would be an historic achievement and the structural issues remain the sticking point and earlier today i spoke with mnuchin and asked if he was concerned that the negotiations with china would drag on as the u.s. is dragging on products from the eu and the it would be engaged in two trade wars. he shot back that these aren't
trade wars back over to you >> all right thank you, elan. tomorrow, sarah eisen will have an interview with steven mnuchin on trade at 1:30 p.m. eastern. you won't want to miss that. >> if you think this refund is low this year, it probably is and the economic impact when we come back. so servicenow put your workflows in the cloud, huh? mm-hm. your employees must love you. thank you. ah, you could say that. so how are things with you guys? great. thank you. thank you, sir. lunch next week? terrific. say hi to the team. will do. call my office, i will. -sounds good. alrighty. servicenow. works for you.
accustomed to getting tax refunds this time of year are probably sorely disappointed fresh data coming in from the irs shows that the government paid out significantly less this tax season robert frank joins us now with more we're all frowning here, robert. >> me, to, contessa. >> total refunds issued through the end of march were down by $6 billion. the average refund is down only slightly falling 20 to $2873 1.6 million fewer americans received refunds that could change a little bit by april 15th and the filers who expect the biggest refunds usually file first and the
totals aren't likely to change that much now. more than two-thirds of americans receive a tax cut under the new law and they received a bulk of the pay cuts throughout the year which they may not have noticed and it's a forced savings plan. the filers usually spend the refile in the spring a new wall street journal/nbc poll said 17% of respondents got a tax cut while 28% said they're paying more. this may be the most underappreciated tax cut in history, guys. back to you. >> robert, surely the incentive and i guess one of the intentions is that medium to long term, not immediately, the high tax rates start cutting their local taxes as opposed to everyone jumping on the back that the deduction might hurt them in the short term >> well, that's what many expected would happen or would start to happen this year, and in fact, the reverse is
happening. look at new york, new jersey, connecticut and they're talking about raising taxes and not lowering them and so this theoretically would put pressure the states to cut spending and reduce the impact of this, but so far there's no evidence of that, in fact, quite the opposite so we'll see in the coming years how it all plays out and whether this deduction cap continues because of course, democrats in congress want to repeal that >> all right robert, thank you for the reporting. >> thank you, guys >> we got the new jetblue shares it appears jetblue will have a trance atlantic service as soon as tomorrow. the carrier could add a service to london and could also include routes to other european cities and it's up 4% on that and interesting because norwegian which is a low to medium profit warning of late struggled to make the transatlantic route work i guess jetblue is a level above in service in terms of prices
and it's with delta and the norwegian. >> right, and they have some experience in overseas flying to the caribbean and things like that >> we will, and that pretty much does it. big day tomorrow on capitol hill headed to d.c. indeed, on the plane >> anyway, thank you for joining us, contessa "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. your traders are pete najarian, tim seymour, karen finerman and dan nathan it's been a wild ride for this stock and even though it's well below its price, the dean of valuation says it's still not worth the price it's trading at now and plus big banks under pressure this week as the ceo head to the hills tomorrow and the companies gear up for earnings later this week, but the chairwoman says investors are getting it all wrong she'll explain we throw it out tonight with the market sell-off and the dow fell 200 points and the s