tv Power Lunch CNBC May 24, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
engineers necessary to comply with the rules and makes it difficult for small competitors. >> thanks, great to get your point of view today. >> thank you >> alex sta momos. join me and tyler on "power lunch" which begins right now. >> kelly, see you in just a moment thank you very much. i'm tyler mathisen, everybody. . stocks up for a change but dow headed for the longest losing streak since 2011. has the sell-off almost run its course plus, transports looking at their first three-week losing streak of this year. how tariffs are impacting trucking and more. a new report shows u.s. companies are paying almost entirely for tariffs on chinese products how businesses should model for a long-term and we do mean long-term trade war. "power lunch" starts right now
>> so let's get a check on the markets this hour. stocks are nicely in the green with the dow industrials up almost 100 points. up 180 at the high on track to post, however, a fifth straight weekly loss the s&p 500 and nasdaq are on track for their third straight weekly declines. kelly? >> let's get to seema mody at the new york stock exchange with the latest on the trading action this hour. seema? >> kelly, higher yields, lower volatility and upbeat comments from president trump on trade and the dow up triple digits, about 100 points 25,589 a broader rebound for industrials, tech, financials which closed down in yesterday's trade. also take a look at utilities. another record high, now up 2% for the week let's dig in a little further because 16 out of the 35 companies on the s&p 500 that have hit 52 week highs today are the utilities. names like american electric power and southern companies that is an electric and gas utility firm based out of
atlanta. check out their dividend it shows you how investors continue to value companies that are higher quality and dividend paying 5% dividend for southern american electric power at 3% and the question, whether there's further upside left in the sector price attorneyinto earnings rat. it is trading at a premium to its historical average. >> we have a rapid update right now on the american economy. steve liesman with the details, plus the forecast on the tariff impact going forward. >> kelly, that weak report this morning with the decline in boeing sales related to the 737 max and perhaps from the tariffs has brought down the outlet for growth in this quarter we're now down to 1.6% not the lowest we've been but up near 2% for a while there. down 0.2% from the prior estimate we had and the third quarter now running 3% which is
unchanged. so sticking to that 3% number and you can average the two together at home to coel me up h the first half sticking to that one and he'll have the number for you. ubs and then a host of folks, 1.3 and then joe lavorgna, up 1% for the second quarter ahmerst pier point, saying my suspicion is that businesses are holding off on key investment decisions due to uncertainty here's how the second round, not yet been implemented, could impact the economy shave 50 basis points off of gdp and it would then be 1.5 a little more optimistic but morgan stanley said inflation would rise by a quarter point and the fed said it cost $831 or would cost if the president went to those other tariffs and another fear, the effect on ceo
confidence that could reduce capital spending in the months ahead and maybe guys we saw a little bit of that >> up $830 per household the cost, if the full amount, if put under tariff there goes the 2017 tax cut. >> it would offset that. tell you the big change here, tyler. it's important to kind of, it's been so rapid, everything that's happened here. we've gone from a base case of a deal and no new tariffs to a base case of no deal and a third round of tariffs, which would be, you know, from going to the 10% on the 25 or the 200 to another 25, and you cannot raise tariffs, which are taxes on things and not expect some impact and all we're doing is debating how big the negative impact is, not debating, nobody out there saying there's this positive impact. >> thank you very much steve liesman. the reescalation of the trade war sent investors on a
wild ride lately but the major averages are down just 5% or so from recent record highs bigger downside flush to come or or stocks close to running their course the downward way? jason pride, of private clients. ron insana, the senior analyst and commentator with all kinds of other titles i'm not going to bore you with. >> not anything there. >> ron, let me turn to you we talk about this being a trade war. >> so far. >> that's my idea. is this potentially more than that and the beginning of a long-term profound kind of cold war competition between the united states and whomever we can bring along from the west and china? >> i wrote about that today on cnbc.com i think, in many ways, i compared to the lead-up to the war in iraq. a group of neocons led by bill
crystal, dick cheney, who wanted regime change in iraq. they passed and went forward with that notion and you see the president's advisers this president's advisers building a similar case, that china is an existential economic and military threat to the united states and as such, we have to have a wider economic war with china to weaken them economically and militarily over the long run and seems to me that's what's developing, not just a simple trade war. >> who are the presidential advisers who are carrying that ball >> i mean, most people don't think steve bannon is still advising the president i think he's still in the game talking about this stuff a monastery in italy talking about economic nationalist to anyone who will listen and then the trade rep and peter navarro, the trade expert in the white house. all saying effectively the same thing that china needs to be
stopped. >> your reaction to what ron just said and the idea that maybe, as this trade scuffle prolongs itself, that the global economy is going to slow, already seeing commodity prices come down, oil prices are down, and bond yields are down those are usually signs that people are anticipating a slowing. >> right so it's come from trade discussion to trade war to trade scuffle. i think we could find more nouns for this along the way i think one of the bigger backdrop pictures, there's a genre regime chaneral regime che for a long time, we were the long-term driver we were willing to enter into trade deals that put us in a slight disadvantage, to get the global trade going we were a great leader in doing that and got it up and running and now basically coming back to the table, whether you like the approach or not, looking at the deal and recognizing, okay, we
were at a little bit o f a disadvantage and make it more parity the way it's done is actually what's causing a lot of the problems base case now, somewhere around 0.3 based on head wind so far. almost like a number, a random number generator around that from the perspective of a trade deal that could come into place and the trade head wind goes away or you could have a ratcheting up in tariffs or a slowdown in trade that impacts the economy more significantly i'll have one additional thought to that. i think this is right. we're seeing in business surveys, businesses holding back on capital spending are business decisions because they don't know the rules of the game is how they're operating. if we were to get some clarity on what's going to happen, we could actually have a much better economic environment. >> sure. clarity would help people make those decisions but we may not have that for a while.
>> clarity is good >> having gone from optimism about the outcome a couple of months ago, people said, there's a deal, all the rhetoric was positive and now completely the other way. we're now comparing this to the iraq war and so forth. so is it possible everyone is saying, we're getting defensive, in this for the long haul and get surprised with some kind of breakthrough >> maybe, recently, there was a report suggesting the administration may look at countries they deem currency manipulators as the next target for tariffs. we have europe and japan in respect to autos six months down the road this has become much deeper game than just china. so we talk about the currency valuations and possible elsewhere. tyler saying, listen, bond market, lumber, copper, oil. these are collapsing in price. sending a distinctly different message. 5% correction in stocks. i worry that the stock market in particular has underpriced or
mispriced risk when it comes to these political and geopolitical issues going forward. >> ron, thank you very much. have a great weekend, sir. >> thank you, nice to be on. >> you bet in the ripple effect of the trade war, transports are on pace for their first three-week losing streak of the year. most of these stocks are in correction or bear market territory down 20% from the recent highs but frank holland is back inside a big rig and in pennsylvania with more on how this will play out on the ground, frank? >> reporter: we're in aston, pennsylvania, taking a look at how tariffs in the trade war are impacting the trucking iusndtry. i'm frank holland with that story coming up on "power lunch. now there's scotts thick'r lawn 3-in-1 solution. with a soil improver! seed! and fertilizer to feed! now yard time is our time. this is a scotts yard. your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time...
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dow transports fallen 7% since president trump tweeted on may 5th about raising tariffs on chinese goods and exports fall, the trucking industry dealing with a double whammy in aston, pennsylvania, with that story frank holland. >> reporter: 70% of what we buy in stores is brought there in trucks just like this one. with the decline in exports as well as tariffs, of course, this industry has been impacted and they've seen their shares decline by 24% or more since tariffs put into place and lower at west coast ports that handle those china shipments. thefrp down.
revenues were down they've seen lower rates for daily trucking it has seen double digit declines since put into place. that's fallen by 19% and that's how most things are shipped. and tied to tariffs, a lot of manufacturers and retailers front loaded their goods into the u.s. and at the end of 2018, now with their warehouses and their shelves stocked up those companies are in the driver's seat when it comes to pricing. >> we don't have the ability to increase as the costs increase in 2019. >> reporter: >> another issue is dual transactions
that's a lot more profitable back in 2012, the dual transaction was 20% and this year, more like 20%. they only make money with the goods in the back of the truck like this one. >> you're going to earn your trucking license at this rate. >> god to have a side hustle, kelly. >> thank you very much frank, appreciate it transports do continue to down shift as described there on pace for third week of losses this year bring in donald, managing partner of the flow of goods, how disruptive is this >> incredibly disruptive you look at the national rate. gone down 19% in history and down 35% from the peak a year
ago. >> we know these can be volatile but is that pretty unusual >> very unusual. in part because we had incredibly strong year last year and like any good industry, we saw the trucks add drivers and technology that allowed them to be more efficient and then having that capacity with decreasing demand. >> the names in this space down as well. have they fully priced in the impacts now as far as you're concerned? >> it will continue to grow through 2008 to 2009 and when the economy is strong and continue to like names like the fedex and xpos of the world,
however, that said, continued downside whether they're in the trucking or railroading space. >> is there a double whammy of sorts? they often come up in conjunction to build out the own delivery systems >> that may be true but amazon just doing what any large retailer does and that is build out their delivery infrastructure i remind people that walmart has 8,000 trucks and dozens of distribution centers and tens of thousands of trailers. yet, they're also the largest customer of most of the large trucking companies so i just think there's been too much made about amazon's willingness or ability to compete with the other transportations. >> finally, donald, if we have an issue where all of the sudden, those volumes rebound pretty quickly, i would imagine
the stocks snap back but no visibility on that right now, so are there any other levers the companies can pull >> there are levers to pull but disagree with that but we could see the outbound tinder and the number drop by almost 30% in just 48 hours following the trump tweet that indeed the tariffs, higher tariffs going in place not only very active but visible and increasingly larger amounts of data are available in retile. and that's why they do a great job of predicting what's happening in the economies because historically, available to those moving goods but more and more, data is available to anybody if you have the right access. >> a new favorite economic
let's go to dominic chu for a market flash >> we watch the payment chase because earlier today, cnbc reported there's a possible merger, a big one in the works in the payment services industry between global payments and total system sflss it could be a $20 billion transaction all stock deal a deal could be announced early as next week in regard to the overall and now come off the highs today. still though, if you talk about size and scale of global payments, total systems, this could be one of the biggest deals in the payment system services, tyler, an industry under a lot of consolidation pressure or influence over the
course of the last year. back to you. >> thank you very much, dom chu. michael santoli now for show "trading nation." >> thank you very much check out foot locker having the worst day in nearly two years after missing earnings and slashing guidance as those trade tariffs loom craig johnson from piper jaffray. craig, this chart has a lot of jagged peaks and valleys how does it look to you? >> i look at the chart and something that doesn't fit for me from a technical perspective because we've had a big downdraft here in the stock and really oversold. look for some sort of little relief rally in the stock. perhaps back to 53 but ultimately, if that fails, support at 30 and not a stock for me at this point in time, mike. >> whole chain retail, you can
find inexpensive looking stocks with obvious challenges out there. is this the kind of name that you might be attracted to at this point >> not a name, we prefer the suppliers with the e-commerce route and in addition, nothing is really more at risk from tariffs than specialty and athletic apparel particularly, footwear that third threat in tariffs, additional $300 billion f that goes into effect, that could increase the price of sneaker by 40%. this is the epicenter of the trade war or the risk of the epicenter and think it will make hard to rebound in the short run. >> i guess there is some sense that if there were some extra round of tariffs, the likes of foot locker might have to absorb that with the powerful suppliers. we leave it there. thank you. for more "trading nation," head to our web site or follow us at tweet @tradingnation oil on track for the biggest weekly drop of the year and energy stocks in correction.
the crude realities of where we go from here. >> out huawei. china firing back and gearing up for memorial day, it's time to uncover that barbecue grill. could this be the summer for alt meat that's all ahead on "power lunch. >> the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> there's a classic investment thesis called the dow theory it says that transportation stocks could either confirm or deny a broader market trend. it's important to remember the transports could be sensitive to changes in oil prices and other market influences. so don't rely exclusively on this theory when making an investment decision. i'm randy frederick and schwab is the better place for traders.
welcome back i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. as he left the white house for the trip to japan, president trump telling reporters he will declassify documents related to the origins of the investigation into the russian links to the campaign >> everything they need is declassified
they'll be able to see how this hoax, the hoax or witch hunt started and why it started vm it was an attempted coup or takedown of the president of the united states. >> sign aed a law banning abortions after 8 week of pregnancy, doesn't include exceptions for rape or incest. the law goes into effect august 28th doctors who violate the ban could face five to 15 years in prison a massachusetts father came home to find that someone had broken into his house, but instead of stealing the intruder or intruders, cleaned the house. nate roma said every room cleaned except for the kitchen the intruders left an origami rose you can see right there on a toilet paper roll and police say they have no leads or suspects in the case that is creepy that's the news. >> how can we get them to break into our house >> exactly, but they didn't
clean the kitchen. that's the worst room. >> they left the kitchen, okay >> they left the kitchen >> it's odd. i would understand the whole story if the kitchen were clean, sue. >> exactly well, there's speculation that it was a cleaning crew that went into the wrong house but i don't buy that because they would have cleaned the kitchen. >> absolutely. keep us posted, sue, thanks. the oil market is closing for the day. over to dom chu at the cnbc commodity desk. >> oil prices moving higher here over a percent wti, $58.60. crude, futures, a dollar 1.22% and 68.62 and now it follows that steep losses we see yesterday across the entire energy complex as concerns really ramped up over increasing stockpiles for both oil and gasoline in the u.s. also, the effects of the trade dispute between the u.s. and china. the downside moves we should point out earlier this week, mean that regardless of what happens here, oil could be on pace for its biggest drop of the year a couple of notes here, remember, oil futures prices right now for near date
delivery, still lower, again, than those for immediate delivery reflecting the near term uncertainty overall and k factor in all of that, should be interesting for energy stocks into next week over to you. >> thank you very much, dom chu. until today, the energy market having a few rough days. crude on pace, still, for its worst week of the year individual stocks still getting hard all in correction and the etf with the xle in bear market territory. down 20% or more from a recent high with us to discuss what's happening in oil as well as what it means for the stocks, john, founding partner of again capital and analyst with cee port securities. tell me what's happening and why. >> speaking of things getting clean, oil market got its clock cleaned this week. look, a couple of things really came together. i mean, i've been trying to claim the mantle of most damaged
asset class by oil but copper has given us a run for its money, but commodities in general. the trade war fallout impacting the asian economy, german economy, manufacturing centers of the world, energy intensive, the most south korea in recession, for example. and the other thing propping up oil prices, iranian tensions with the u.s. and iran rhetoric hot as i've seen in years, to the point where we were almost at a trip wire, it felt like. >> you would think, mightn't you, the reduced would support higher prices? >> were we staring down armed conflict. >> which would further slow the activity. >> the trump administration pivoted, talked about tamping down and it was a signal that we are not on a trip wire, not staring down the barrel of any
kind of gun and came out. >> concern about economic activity is one thing but the other side, where are supplies in not bad, are they >> not at all. and the firewall against these geopolitical time bombs that go off is the u.s. production of $12 million a day and some get high as $3.5 million >> make a guess. over the course of the summer, what's the range for oil prices high or low? >> the way the prices have broken down, you could see a landing zone around 52 on the chart for wti oil prices. >> today, we're 58. >> 52 there anding zone in the chart.
the upside or some event in the middle east that registers, you're talking 75. >> so many energy stocks, is this a buying opportunity? head back over to mike kelly and listen, we talked a lot earlier this year about why energy names not keeping up with the rise in oil prices now that crude cracked so to speak, is that hesitation validated? >> can't win on the way up or down our message to investors has been, we think this is more of an opportunity than a threat with oil prices pulling back right now. but down 6 relative to the s&p
500 but saying finally, we have companies with good fundamentals right now and seems like everybody, especially this week, is transfixed on the demand and very bullish. >> tight, in other words >> we see compelling and cheap right now. >> diamond back, the other, so to speak, petroleum, do you feel beleaguered in general with the environment this year? >> no doubt on that but we get a lot of comfort, run a lot of these quantitative reports or actually seeing that, okay, for once, better fundamental shape
now with oil than we were in 2014 with oil at $100 a barrel. >> mike kelly, appreciate it bond market now. rick santelli with the action at the cme. rick >> reporter: hi, kelly obviously, early closes for the memorial holiday except for the people behind me anything to do with equities or non-financials stayed open until regular time and gives you everything you need. in front of the long weekend, pretty much sideways look at the scaling chart but the dynamics of what's going on and we've seen rates drop. as a matter of fact, the worst of 329, the worst on a closing basis since october of 2017. just a couple higher and then down 7 basis points on the week and changed to november of 2017 and this is interesting.
and you can see the spreads have widened but not horribly so and one week of the dollar index, lost the upper ground of the 95 handle and when it was up there, it was hovering near 24 month highs. high ground, back to you highing about their ties to the chinese government and president trump calls the company, quote, very dangerous and china blasts back. we look at what comes next and if there's any offamp t-rinhis trade war. stay with us on "power lunch." measure up? a cfa charterholder does. you've worked hard to grow your wealth. make sure you're working with a wealth manager who can grow with you. cfa charterholders have the investment expertise to unlock opportunities other advisors might not see.
in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. to say they don't work with the chinese government is a false statement. >> it's a lot they must work. >> it's required to by chinese law to do that so it's just, huawei ceo on that, at least, isn't telling
the american people the truth, nor the world. >> that was secretary of state mike pompeo on squawk box yesterday dismissing claims from huawei the company doesn't share secrets with the chinese government china fired back saying they continually fabricated rumors about huawei but never produced clear evidence that countries have requested and showing u.s. companies are bearing the brunt of the burden, as president trump previously said. model for a potentially long-term trade war. corporate lawyer dennis unkovic at unkovic and scott, advising on deals in china for more than 30 years good to see you again. how long do you think american business needs to prepare for this trade war and who do you think is likeliest to blink
first? >> let me take the first question i think it's already too late for some american companies that haven't already started to do it in the short run, a supply chain of product, whatever you make, send it out, what you need to do is probably right now, order extra amounts of inventory, maybe two or three months and then get it out of china and put it in the philippines, somewhere else so if there is a war, at least you can carry the supply chain. in the long run, no longer just manufacturing in china which they did exclusively but other places to do the manufacturing even if slightly more expensive. >> that takes a long time. months, if not years to
effectuate. >> it would, outside of china to do your work that's something they should already be doing right now but in the short run, to at least buy tide what i think all experts know, no silver bullet you have to simply deal with the situation as it arises but are china and the u.s. headed for a confrontation? i think the answer is yes. >> let's talk about this war of nerves if nothing else one of the differences between the united states and china, china is not a democracy president xi does not have to face the polls, the electorate in 2020. president trump does does that suggest that if the pressure gets too high, the president of the united states
seeks a deal before the president of china does? >> that's a terrific question. xi jinping is the single most powerful political leader in the world because he doesn't have any bosses he doesn't have to answer a congress, to the judiciary what he can do is if he gets the back-up, and chinese are emotional people they're not the stoic chinese you read about they are very proud, they're very nationalistic so if president trump says you must do this or else, the chinese will sit back and wait the one thing president trump i think needs to be reelect associate's degred is a strong economy and market. it could adversely affect prospects. if trump asked me, get the best deal to put the united states in a better position now than it was six months ago and say fine, let's go for it. >> let's talk about something we
were, not dancing around, addressed it directly at the top of the broadcast and that's the idea there are some who are presumably still advising the president who see the collision between china and the united states as far more than just about trade than it is a kind of cold war competition and collision of two systems, two military powers who have two stakes, regionally if not globally is this more than just about trade? >> yes in the long run, china will have a larger economy than the united states i guess in about four years but four times as many people. but the u.s. essentially was unchallenged economically for the last 30 or 40 years. russia, as you know, has shrunk and continues to shrink. the next big guy in the room is going to be china, so anyone who thinks this is just about
tariffs or trade, i think is fooling themselves but that's especially important reason why when you get into a dispute, you want to make sure that you're not doing things that push people or things over the precipice. that's why i think the president in threatening china to say, you must do this or else, is making a mistake, because the chinese are very strong. they're not teenagers, they're grown-ups and we have to deal with them in a sophisticated way. >> telling point earlier, they are a proud people who felt aggrieved over the domination of the west and other powers for centuries, really. >> if you go to a chinese school, in america, we learn about the pledge allegiance to the flag but the china learn
about the century of humiliation where france and russia essentially put pressure on chinese and took it over at that time, the chinese have been very embarrassed and what xi jinping has done to his credit is he said to the chinese people, we will not allow this to happen again. they have the belt and road initiative to build a silk road between china into europe. what year to complete that 2049 exactly 100 years after the chinese communist party took over china china is very proud and you have to deal with them straight and honesty and not try to push them around too much. >> thanks. have a great weekend >> thank you, tyler. coming up on today's tasting menu, could you get $400 together if crow needed it plus, the delivery service now worth $12.5 billion and attracting your best player with a free penthouse will this work that's all ahead on "power lunch.
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at the same time, trying to convince more farmers to provide it with the plant material it needs to bring down the price premium it currently charges versus real meat when i visited the headquarters yesterday here in los angeles, i asked the ceo ethan brown the biggest mistake he's made. he said early on, he moved too quickly to get into food services such as hospitals and universities, thinking it would be a less expensive way to grow. but at the moment, but at that moment, the product wasn't ready and the market didn't understand it >> i struggled to sell into food services i had to pull back and unfortunately let people go and things of that nature. so i hated that. and we decided we're going to go
build the biggest brand we possibly can in retail and then go back into food service and i think that's the right way to do it. >> all right well, revenues have more than doubled in a year. but when will the company be profitable we may get an idea when they finally report earnings for the first time after the ipo on june 6. >> okay, guys. which is real, which is fake >> can we zoom in again? >> i am going to guess that the one on your right, jane, is the beyond meat burger that is my left, your right. >> i was thinking the same thing. >> you're saying that is. >> yes. >> you're right. >> i'm right >> yes, the squawk box crew was wrong. the power lunch crew was right >> i just followed tyler's lead. >> the one on the right looked a little grayer to me, like it might have been real meat, i guess, not beyond meat. >> it didn't look that appetizing. >> have you tasted them? >> yes
>> what do you say >> you have to look at the middle of that i would say the meat burger is really good. the brats are okay but the pork breakfast sausage, the fake pork, unbelievable. you would never know that it is not pork it is crazy. >> i'm going to go find it this week >> thanks for watching power lunch everyone closing bell starts right now. have a great weekend, everyone looking for the closing bell, everyone, 59 minutes left in the trading day, we will tell you everything you need to know as an investor before the market closes after a wild week of trading. the longest weekly losing streak since 2011. >> here is what is driving the market action today. crude oil is bouncing. treasury yields are holding steady it has been all quiet on the trade front. >> we will have experts here to break it all down for you. including alpha one capital dan niles, who just covered his semiconductor short position af