tv Fast Money CNBC July 2, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
out that yields look over-sold, people are too bullish on bonds, the move has gone too far, too fast, you're not getting a lot of relief there. >> sometimes it is bearish because it means economic weakness. >> on a programming note, don't miss "closing bell" special time tomorrow, 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. eastern time. that does it for today's show. >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight, the s&p 500 closing at a record high for the second straight day as a bull run wages on there's one name that has lagged the market for the last decade that the chart master says is about to break out you won't believe what it is we start off with breaking news out of tesla charging higher, the company reported delivery numbers moments ago, record ones at that let's get to phil lebeau with the latest on this >> melissa, elon musk said they
were close to setting a record for second quarter and they did that here are the important numbers people are focusing on this afternoon. total deliveries at 95,200 the model 3 numbers, this was what everybody was focused on of all of these, 77,550 for some context here, wall street expected 74,100 so they blew past that number. model s and x stronger than expected, coming in just over 17,000 there's good news regarding the backlog. in the release, tesla says orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering q3 with an increase in order backlog. elon musk said for sometime there's not a demand problem now they're saying there really isn't a demand problem we are seeing an increase in the number of orders that are out there. this is the chart that shows the increase in model 3 deliveries remember how it fell off in the first quarter? that's what sparked everybody
saying, look, there might be a demand issue here, why are they not fulfilling as many deliveries they blew past the estimate of 74,100, delivering 77,550. just over 87,000 vehicles were produced at tesla. they do not break it down by region however, melissa, so it is hard to know how much is north america. likely a good chunk of it, the majority is north america and the united states. how much is europe, which has been increasing in deliveries, and then the wild card in all of this, how many of the deliveries were to china. remember, there's a tariff on vehicles built in california and then shipped to china right now. we should note too, phil, the company says it will no longer report vehicles in transit after this quarter so that is sort of a change in the numbers they will release. in terms of the questions answered with this release and unanswered, phil, what would you put in each category in terms of the answered, some might say that the demand issue might be answered, a cannibalization issue might be answered. >> i would say that, yes. >> okay.
especially on the demand side because remember so much was made by a number of analysts that you had an ev tax credit, the federal ev tax credit in the united states was cut in half from the second half of last year to the first half of this year and people said, well, you're really asking people, do you want to step up and buy the vehicle if you're not getting as much of a tax credit there so that question has been answered and especially with the fact that they're saying, look, our order backlog is growing from the second quarter to the third quarter. so it would seem that they have put to rest this question about whether or not they have just burned through all of the previous reservations, hand raisers, whatever name you want to call it for the model 3, and that they are growing and generating greatest interest. >> in terms of the unanswered questions still that remain, even with this release, phil, it would be margins, right? >> oh, yes, it is definitely margin. >> yeah, and then -- >> definitely margin what was the price you told the model 3s and what was the mix,
that's what it comes down to. >> would we have a sense of how much -- how many sales have been pulled forward because of the drop in the federal tax credit >> well, i would assume not much, melissa. >> okay. >> if you have got -- if your order backlog is growing -- >> right. >> -- now, we don't know exactly which order backlog is growing here is it growing mainly for the 3 that would be the assumption how much is it growing for the "s" and the "x" as well? these are numbers that when they come out with q2 financials, that's going to shed a lot of light in terms of how much pressure is being put on margins. >> okay. phil, thank you. phil lebeau in chicago breaking the numbers down for us. we should note tesla shares are up about 7% in the after hours session. does the delivery number change the bear thesis. i will go to the biggest bear on the desk and that would be tim seymour who went short on tesla in the numbers. >> i don't think it changes the bear thesis. i don't know how we can answer demand first of all we moved the bar so low in terms of the second quarter deliveries if i had numbers up, we are
still averaging about 350 which is below their 360 to 400 which is if they can continue to do this i think we knew they were going to pull a few rabbits out of the hat for the second quarter i think they have to to not talk about financials with this company is to really miss one of the biggest issues, but i think, look, good for them the reality is the other issues that this company is facing they continue to see mass exodus from their executive ranks. they had three more important people in the last week including their head of production, their head of engineering, steve mcmanus, announced, their head of europe announced. in a couple of cases it is to go to key competitors look, to me the issue is i think demand is very much still in question i think the company is going to also tell you that they're not in a position to grow aggressively because, in fact, they're doing everything they can to secure and conserve cash. we know they're trying to raise money. the best thing going on for them right now is credit spreads right now have gotten to be all-time tight and people seem to be throwing money at the problem. >> to play devil's advocate,
order backlog is growing we had three higher than expected how can we say there's a demand question, at least as of the end of the quarter in terms of the growth they're building a new factory in china. >> there was a huge miss last quarter in q1 deliveries. >> very true. >> and then you also have, you know, the tax credit going away. to me i think to tim's point you will smooth this stuff out and i think tim made a good point you kind of glossed over you know, if you are a company and the expectations are so low and sentiment is so bad and short interest is so high, why wouldn't you put out a little piece of information on the financials, just reaffirming guidance or something like that? >> because they're getting quarter earnings in a few weeks. >> no, if there's material improvement in the margins or something like that, why wouldn't you do it right now >> look, this is not up a lot. this stock moves 10% and 15% all the time it is only up 7%, 8% in the market here. if it was a game changer, you can be up 20% or 30% you can have a move with a stock
this heavily shorted it is an uninspiring option. >> the model 3 geared towards the middle class consumer, the tax credit was cut in half again, it goes away at the end of the year and it hurts the middle class consumer. beyond that you have more competition entering the space you have volkswagen competing with model 3, porsche rolling out a vehicle to compete with model s so i don't know it is here to stay. >> to be frank, when it seemed it was trading north of 300 for the major part of the year, the major part of the story was the mass market vehicle and proliferation of the model 3 at the time there were questions about what they could actually produce and ship, and they had preorders for 400,000 or something like that. that was the bull case if they start materially beating -- listen, they beat the expectations of the model 3 by 4% i don't think anyone is doing cart wheels over here -- >> right. >> they're still below their
2019 targets if you analyze these numbers. i think about what the deliveries now matter, when deliveries didn't matter it is like the standard in which people follow the company changes on a daily basis i'm not saying we're doing it here, but if deliveries are the holy grail right now the company should probably be knocked down. it was a very, very good number relative to expectations, but if you talk to some of the biggest bulls -- and we had them on our show and they continue to be pointing to this company more as a data story and, you know, the headstart they have on competition in terms of miles traveled and the database they're building is where the value of the company is. so some of these numbers should be moot if you think that the valuation of the company is tied to things that have nothing to do with this being an auto company, and yet here we are talking about deliveries i just -- you know, to me there are so many things about the valuation that are difficult to swallow and we haven't even talked about the competition that we know is closing fast. >> you made a great call tactically on a trade in tesla,
and the last time you talked about tesla i was on -- you talked about it last week -- you said that you didn't know where it was going to go it was anybody's guess at that point. so now -- >> now, what there is, if you look at the chart and you might have it in front of you, those that are watching, you have a wall of dead bodies above you. basically if you look at the three-year chart -- >> that sounds like night fright, man. >> it is like a "game of thrones." >> at the 250 level you have what is called a red spike unhappy shareholders who by definition have lost money and the stock continues every time when it hits 250 to back away because sellers emerge, dead bodies, over supply, difficult level. >> i think now there's even more of a lack of transparency, too they're eliminating, what, customer vehicles in transit, and that's typically not a good thing for a management team that already lacks credibility. you would want to see more from them beyond that, they lost another key executive today. so that revolving door continues to be an issue. >> for more on tesla let's bring in gene munster.
great to have you with us. i am surrounded by bears on this stock. you like the release tell me what this sort of resolved in terms of the bear case against the stock >> i want to take a step back and talk about that demand topic and the 400,000 number was thrown out there that solidified investor's view that the model 3 is off to a fast start, and then we move forward to the december quarter when the model 3 peaked and dipped down in the marquardter that really set the expectation that the company was going to continue to decline, and this was simply a pent-up demand, unprecedented demand for a new product. this reversal -- and i would also point out that even though they slightly beat some of the expectation, the whisper numbers were much lower than what they actually reported. so this was entrenched i think in street thinking, is that it is hard to pick what the underlying demand is i would point to two numbers in the march quarter they did 63,000 -- excuse me, in the
december quarter they peaked model 3 at 63,000 deliveries they did 77,000. it wept dont down in march and u to 77,000. there were more headwinds than tail winds in the june quarter we can go through them i will set them off to the side here but if you take the base case there was equal head and tail ends for the june quarter and they stepped up from the peak model 3 quarter and they have greater demand, i think -- or at least the backlog is greater than they entered, i think the case is powerful there's something bigger going on here electric cars are undoubtedly the future, and so i see this as a powerful step forward. the company is far from perfect. some of the things that tim talked about, about management deliveries, as someone who supports the story i'm most concerned about -- excuse me, management departures, i'm most concerned about that but that said, i think it is focusing on too much of the details. the big picture is pretty simple, is that this current demand is not about pent-up demand for model 3.
>> are you kerpd concerned at aa in order to achieve the levels of sale for the model 3 specifically that margins were compressed in the quarter? >> not as concerned. i think that's more or less a wash given they have recently raised money, our math suggests that as long as they do 80,000 or greater vehicles per quarter at, call it, a 10% margin which is a little below their expectations, they should have money to the end of 2021. that's not a perfect world that's one of the problems with the tesla story, but i'm not as concerned about the cash piece as i was three months ago before they did this called $2.5 billion raise. >> gene, are you concerned they haven't confirmed the 2019 guidance these were great numbers you would think it would be a great time to say, by the way, 360 to 400 look really good or have they pulled forward a lot more demand? is it not something that we can
expect >> i would be concerned if not for them talking about the backlog grew in the quarter, which tends to be a leading indicator of where guidance is so that was noteworthy >> gene, does it concern you also -- when you think about just deliveries here -- you know, actually i have to get up. one of you guys take this. >> gene, here is one more question you talked about details you have key executives leaving the company who seemingly knew about the great results also this is not a concern here you are talking about the big picture, but the big picture is that the most talented people at this company outside of the ceo have largely left this firm at a time when there's a lot of pressure and there's a lot of questions about corporate governance >> so there's no easy way to -- i mean this is negative.
i want to be clear about that. it is negative, what has happened i would also point these departures have happened -- and this is part of the negativity for the last year and a half but here we are at the end of the june quarter with still some impressive results you cannot sustain a company with the kind of departures that they've had, but i think that the company has enough trajectory right now, at least over their -- with the current line-up with their current team to get them to a point where you don't have to worry about solvency at that point i suspect that the retention should improve some of this intense pressure environment that they have, which ultimately forcing some people out of the company, i think should subside so i'm looking at this as something that is part of a symptom of a company that was in a lot of pain, and i think that as that starts to ease they should have better retention. >> are you surprised or concerned that the stock is up 7.6% when 35% of the shares outstanding are short? i mean there should be a massive squeeze if this number was really that bullish.
carter made this point earlier right? 7.6% for a name like tesla seems like nothing. >> agreed, it is like nothing. the bull/bear case is far from over i think that our conversation is evidence of that i'm not surprised by -- and i think this will continue i think investors want to see several quarters of that before this ultimately gets back to some form of stability so not surprised, and the questions -- let's say they have a good september quarter let's fast forward to a decent september quarter, the question will be, "what about december," and unfortunately at some point, at some level it is a show-me story. one other thing, melissa, on that. >> yes. >> i have covered stocks for a long time. i have never seen a story so emotionally charged on both sides. and since it is so charged we will have this bull/bear debate for a long time. >> always great to get your analysis, gene munster of loup
ventures. >> thank you this is a massive stock, still down 30% or so year-to-date the question for investors, you put money in this stock and it takes away your ability to allocate that money to another investment that may yield you a greater return would you put it in tesla or somewhere else >> don't ask me. >> he said before and i will come back in here. my mind just went blank so soefr about that here is the deal carter had the call. when it got massively oversold, when it is trading in the after market, earlier this year it went down 25%. we know how much the analyst community hates the stock. you have to buy this thing when it is down in the hole. >> can i say one quick thing >> one quick thing. >> we have a case where now i think elon, much like the president does this massive thing, change the conversation from cash flow and solvencies to deliveries this is not what we should be talking about. >> still ahead, the s&p 500 closing at a new all-time high today. the chart master says there's
one stock sitting at the bull run about to come back to life he will tell us what it is plus, fast food on fire this year as mcdonald's ar starbucks hit record high after record high, but one name in the group the traders are calling a no touch. live from times square in new york, we are "fast money". hit record high after record high, but one name in the group
session. the new highs come as we officially enter the longest period of economic expansion in u.s. history but the chart master says one stock sat out the bull run that is about to break out. carter, why don't you show us where you're looking at. >> the mighty goldman sachs if one can imagine this, has produced negative returns since the market's peak, the prior bull market high and it looks like it is coming to life. it is a dow component and i think the think to do is be long here is a start date it was a thursday. we know it was october 11, 2007, when we had our financial crisis and our bear market. s&p 500 drops 50% and from that day to present, this is what one has an an investment experience being in the market versus goldman and that's pretty darn bad. the issue is maybe something about to change. let's move on to the next slide and take a few charts and figure
out what we can figure out another way. that comparative chart, another way to do it is to do it relative chart now you have goldman on top, same starting day and now i have relative performance to the s&p. basically goldman is right at it's 09 financial crisis low relative performance it is quite remarkable and yet it is holding. let's go forward one more and zero in on this. so here it is now on a one-year basis. what appeals to me is that we're trying to fight here and trying to put in something of a relative bottom. now, this is relative to the s&p. watch relative to its peer group, the s&p investment bank and brokerage. much better. compared to morgan stanley which is more rate sensitive and other stocks in the basket, goldman is coming to life and that's appealing. a few more and then i'm done now, this is on a longer-term basis, the relative performance to the peer group. i think you can draw the line
several different ways watch what comes next. one way to do it is this you have a head-and-shoulders bottom on the relative you also have a move above the down trend line. put it all together, we're just getting into the point where we've moved above that line. i think that's very important. now to the absolute chart of goldman itself we've just broken above this line our 150-day moving average is just starting to turn. i think what you've got here is something on the order of this, and i want to draw the green ae arrow like that. that's it. >> carter, why don't you come back to the desk and we will trade it in the meantime tucker, would you buy goldman sachs? >> i prefer jp morgan. when you look at these banks in general, you know, goldman basically, they just increased their dividend by nearly 50%, right? so in the past this has been a stock that attracted value investors. now i think you have some of those dividend investors who are actually interested in stocks
like this as well. i mean you are getting a higher -- or you are getting a good yield with half the valuation of utility so it is not a bad play. >> what's that term you use for charts you don't like? the worst chart you have ever seen >> worse chart i have ever seen. >> is this one of them >> no. here is the thing, one of the things i think isinteresting about goldman. it has been trading in this range since the initial ramp on the v reversal in january. it has been trading and unable to breakout. it shows relative performance due to the money setting banks, wouldn't you agree >> sure. >> at least in 2019. what i see is something different. i see the fact that morgan stanley and goldman sachs have been unable to participate with their larger money-centered peers. i think it is bearish. >> they're different banks. >> i understand. but let's go over to europe for one send and look at the euro stocks bank index. it is one of the worst charts i have ever seen. >> that's the one. >> that is the one >> that's the one. >> and when you think about what is going on with deutsche bank and you and i were talking about this, we were talking about the
h2o fund, corporate bond fund. >> i like this >> he is talking about the liquidation of one of the credit fund i'm saying to myself maybe there's a reason why goldman and morgan don't act well, there's a reas reason ye reason euro bank cannot stick its head above the line. >> it is not tied to wage the way online brokers is. >> it is these guys have been lending money to private sectors because rates have been -- they've been taking in public -- >> it is not a money-centered bank. >> i understand that. >> they're two different businesses. >> okay. but i'm telling you actually when you think about these guys as investment banks, shouldn't they be acting better in this environment? if they don't have the rate exposure, we are talking about -- if they don't have the rate exposure, why aren't they acting better? >> what i'm trying to show is the thing lost money for a decade from the prior high but the day-to-day action and
more specific to morgan stanley is a bit better. >> look, goldman sachs more than morgan stanley business changed entirely by the regulatory environment. they were neutered in terms of the ability to take leverage they also had a couple high-profile difficult situations they've gotten themselves into those. >> and when things went out -- >> and they're now resolved. >> and they will have the roes they had at the piques. >> head over to cnbc.com here is what else is coming up on "fast." ♪ welcome to home of the good burger can i take your order? >> vettors ainvestors are orderh fast food, but one investor says one is about to blow up. plus the bitcoins are howling and they went to under 10,000 in the last week. but something in the charts suggests another big breakout. we've got those details.
much more "fast money" after the break. a new cnbc survey shows a third of americans are tightening their belts and cutting spending plans, but 70% plan to go on vacation this summer 34% will spend between $1,000 and $5,000 8% will spend between $5,000 and $10,000. 21% will fly somewhere in the u.s. 9% of americans plan to go abroad the full survey from cnbc, the investing site acorns and survey monkey is online now tcnbc.com/invest-in-you today.
money" consumer discretionary near an all-time high and one group of stocks in the space is serving up huge gains this year. dom chu is back at headquarters on this. >> melissa, when it comes to consumer spending there's a good expectation the good times will continue to control when it comes to dining out. the sector is second best performer of the year and restaurants stocks lead the way higher around a third of the stocks are within 5% of the respective 52-week highs or better and many are geared towards food and beverage for examples shares of chipotle have been some of the best performers overall in 2019 up around 60% or so year-to-dat and 4% below recent highs. darden restaurants which owns the olive garden and longhorn steakhouse among other brands are up 20% year-to-date. three of the four stocks in the sector closer to the recent
highs, number one, taco bell, kfc and parent young brands, up 20% year-to-date it is within 1% of recent highs. mcdonald's, 17% gain year-to-date, less than a percent away from its highs. starbucks continues its big run, a 32% gain year-to-date and sitting around its own high as well now, the momentum has been positive and relatively strong for restaurant stocks, but the big issue is if it will last and if, melissa, there ends up being a more substantial slowdown in the economy. of course, friday's big jobs number will be the latest data point in how healthy the u.s. economy is back over to you. >> thank you, dom. dom chu back at headquarters with all of the news we thought it would be the perfect time to play our favorite game. >> trade it or fade it >> that's right. trade it or fade it, our favorite game. you all know how it works, i think. >> hey. >> we're going to kick it off with you chipotle, trade it or fade it? >> i'm going to fade it. boy, i should fade into left
field on this because i've been wrong for 300, 400, $500 in the stock. i don't love the multiple. i think the company made a great comeback brian nicholl has done a great job at the helm. i fade it. >> carter, what would you say? >> chipotle has gotten back to the point where three years ago everybody started getting sick. >> presickness level. >> right it is the nature of overhead supplies here it sits back to where it was. now what i think it is stuck, sort of a boring thing. >> what are you doing? >> boring is fade it >> i was wondering i thought, oh. >> that maniacal laugh. >> there was we are moving on to mcdonald aeps dan, you're up trade it or fade it? >> i think this thing trade, you know, at a premium to the market pretty consistently. and i think you fade this one. up 10% since the start of april here and there's no reason to fade it. i mean, you know, it is doing well and it is not -- you know, the other one had really material earnings story getting back to the peak earning,
chipotle this is just a steady earner here i don't know why you buy it. a lot of the names that have been out performing of late, you wait until q2 earnings came out and their guidance. >> look. >> you're buyer. >> i'm a buyer i'm i'm a trader, i trader the same-store sales growth, relative to themselves, it is a growth stock a stock people were saying was done, people didn't like the trend or the quality of the food they turned that around. to me the multiple around 26 times is very defendable when you look at chipotle and other names. >> i have been trading this one. s text pensive the valuations is high i would look for pull backs to add to position here it is the kind of stock where when the economy slows, if we enter a recession, it is going to give you some protection, right? because consumers will down shift to eating more fast food and it is very inexpensive food. >> all right starbucks, carter is up. trade it or fade it? >> so this one is off the chain
as the expression goes, right? i mean last june it was $47. >> that means? >> that means -- >> trade it or fade it. >> carter is adding his own terms which is impressive. >> you have to chase it or et it go meaning you no longer control the situation. >> that's the game we play with the bird. >> here is the deal. >> carter is almost as bad as this stuff as guy. >> he is worse. >> it was $47 in june. it is $87 now. it very rarely gets this far above its 150-day moving average and it is not as defensive stock as people think. i think you fade it. >> very good at the end. finally got an answer. >> i'm trading it. i have been trading this one for a lodge time i think starbucks, every time they have a bad number -- and the stock had some volatility, certainly on earnings announcement and guides -- it's been an opportunity to step in and buy it yes, it may be overbought but they continue to have margins that support a business that may not be as strong as two years ago. >> valuation concern you on this, stan >> yes, i mean listen, i think it is the story. you know, it is a little different though they have much hear eps growth mcdonald's is expected to have
single dig it growth star buckets is more defensible remembertive to growth on valuation but i'm a fader on both. >> mark, you're up dar din, trade it or fade it >> i like darden a lot they have best in class operations they have best in class when it comes to restaurant industry casual dining is on fire, longhorn, olive garden are doing well that he work on making the customer experience better they are simplifying the menu so everything looks good when it comes to darden. >> i was thinking of fog horn, leg horn it was funny what can i tell you? i'm a buyer. i would trade this as well i think that the trends here, these guys are able to actually make more out of the consumer and, again, the middle to upper middle class as far as we can see margins will continue to be an upward trend. actually, food costs are going down confronted labor costs and i think they're doing okay. >> trade it. >> nice. carter, that was the best time ever >> yay >> you want to have the fun
thing, then you want to give your answer. it is like everything in life. hold off and then surprise anyway, it is about to breakout. simple as that. >> okay. all right. despite the record run, the consumer sectors, options traders are betting the staples trade could be coming undone dan, why don't you break it down. >> let's look at xlp, the etf that tracks consumer staples group that puts volume at four times call today there was an opening buyer of 10,000 of the july '59 puts, paying $0.62 for those when the stock was 58.75. those break even less than 1% between now and july 19th expiration that's a pretty good at-the-money sort of bearish exposure here. why might a trader be looking at the xlp? next week we will get a large multi national pepsi reporting their q2 earnings on the close i think it is on the 9th there the implied movement in pepsi is about 3%, but that chart we just showed you on the xlp looks like possibly a double top there,
finding resistance at the prior high there's the pepsi chart, broke out earlier this year and kept ongoing. i will throw pepsi again into the category, low single digits eps and sales growth 2r5iding about 24 times kind of expensive. i'm not telling you if you think pepsi is going to nix you buy xlp, but they're cheap over the next couple of weeks. >> these two had a skirmish about sugar water makers like koeng au co ko coca-cola and pepsi. >> i think it is pepsi for the fade it and coke for the trade it. >> nicely done on that one. >> that's my man very succinct. >> check out the full show on friday yes, a full show on friday, the day after the july 4th holiday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time nike pulling the release of the newest sneaker after nfl star turned activist colin kaepernick called it offensive. is the company getting too
political? earlier, riding the crypto coaster today as the digital currency plunged below 10 k and rallied hard we will tell you where it could be headed next when "fast money" returns. options action is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade help you with that.st, but jj cn jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
welcome back to "fast money" nike pulling a new set of shoes according to the "wall street journal" former nfl player turned activist colin kaepernick told the company the early american flag on the shoes known as the betsy ross flag symbolizes an era when slavery was legal nike issued a statement this afternoon saying it made the issue to pull the shows based on concerns it could unintentionally offend and detract from the nation's patriotic holiday. the stock was down around 1% today. the question is, is nike getting too political here or should you be concerned about what the company is doing here? >> i'm a little concerned, yeah. i love the company i love everything they're doing, management is executing really well i love their triple-double strategy, direct to consumers working. but this baffles me. i mean for them to make a move like this based on something they heard from colin kaepernick
i just think it is crazy i am a little confused as to why management would not make that call on their own. if they made that call on their own i would be okay with it, but hearing it came from colin kaepernick is what bothers me. >> didn't they cross the beige when they made colin kaepernick the face of the campaign a lot of people took offense in terms of what he stood for in terms of kneeling during the national anthem. >> they pulled the add two weeks after started running. >> maybe they better check with him first. >> i think to melissa's point, they signed him on as brand ambassador so they've gone down the fact if they defend you by decisions they make, they're not worried about that they did a lot of polling after that initial ad, and it did really -- you know, it was good for their brand. >> yeah, back to business, it is under performing puma and adidas the stock is sort of stalled here. >> that's fair because it out performed, eaten their lunch for 18 months, and their sales have only grown since they embraced colin kaepernick to be clear you know, my personal view, no
one really cares about my personal view, but since when did this flag become a symbol of slavery? i don't know in general as an investor, i would rather not see my companies get political. i think you have a dynamic here where it can be dangerous. with colin kaepernick -- and i will say it about nike -- nike has always been very in touch with what their customers want if anything, for a while there they may have gotten a little far in the innovation and some of the other -- i think they are right on the pulse of where they want to be, and nike as a company here, this does not concern me at all. >> okay. coming up, ea getting an early life today as the extra extra life today gaming company launched a new season of "apex legend" in the battle royal for supremacy. but can it dethrone "fortnite." the chart stmaer says keep calm and hold on.
he will explain with "fast money" returns but perhaps this year, a more exhilarating endeavor awaits. defy the laws of human nature,at the summer of audi sales event. get exceptional offers now. is where people first gathered to form the stock exchangeee, which brought people together to invest in all the things that move us forward. every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. ♪
model 3 deliveries tesla down 30% year-to-date even with the stellar performance in june moving on to another market battle ground, ea showdown against "fortnite" with its hit battle royal "apex legends." josh lipton has the details. hey, josh. >> reporter: the new season is officially live with a new character, new weapons and what are called new skins, meaning new costumes for the characters. ea executives say "apex legends" is the fastest-growing new game the company has had. they think adjusted revenue from the game could be as much as $400 million in fiscal year 2020 for all of the hype, analysts say the checks indicate that the initial fervor surrounding the game cooled, in part because the company didn't update the game as quickly as the competition. meaning this game, "fortnite", another free-to-play battle royal game which racked up 250
million players and nearly $4 billion in estimated revenue now. that's according to super data research so can ea spark renewed interest in "apex legends" with the new season give the stock which is up some 30% a lift some on the street clearly hopeful. michael pachter of web bush thinks they can do more than 600 million in net bookings, more than the company forecast. they point out it doesn't have to be one winner with the style game that they both appeal to different demographics which publicly traded game publishers can capitalize on the trend? analysts believe ea is well divisioned but believe activision can make a strong move as well, offering a version of its "call to duty" as a free-to-play title as well >> thank you a lot of optimism going into the release. web bush raising the price target prior to the move where do you stand on ea, carter >> this is the classic bullish
to bearish movement. it has been working gradually higher the idea is that the action is developmental. i like it a lot and there's more to go. >> erases the notch on the vocabulary. >> i tell you what, he's a wordsmith. >> and words you all know. >> words we know. >> it is different from impulsive. >> yes. >> i think if you find the people that are big ea users and fans of the company, it is there, you know, feeling very passionate about what is going on with "apex legends. to me what is going on with a lot of the big video game plays and manufacturers is they should be treated like studios. the releases are making or breaking their years we think it could be maybe a takeout play when you think of the content and the crossroads between main street media and what it has become. >> i just mention in february when the company reported the fiscal q3 in early february, it had a huge gap down. very disappointing result. remember, they released "apex legends" numbers and the stock went from 80 to 110 in a
straight line. over a week. since then the stock setted blen here, but it is trading 22 times and given what their expected growth is and when you see the potential for the second season to outperform the first season you see a path for with the battle royal games what josh just said, think about it "fortnite" has 200 million plus active users. >> they're showing a slowdown now. >> but they're crazy numbers to me i think it is interesting here the stock is up 10% in the last month, so i don't think you chase it until you get more clarity about what the second season is. >> yes. >> i like and own activision and i have been wrong for a while now. "call of duty" was the 800-pound gorilla. i don't know if it was over confidence or greed on the part of activision but they priced the game at $60 when they released it. this free-to-play is the way to go in-game purchases is where all
of the money is made i think the positive catalyst is ahead for activision that's where i would put my money. bitcoin on a roller coaster ride but there's something in the charts to suggest a bige breakout we will explain. live at the nasdaq in metis square much more "fast money" still ahead. n-seasoned travelers. and they took my toothpaste away. and you should be mad at people who take unnecessary risks. how dare you, he's my emotional support snake. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, whose tech helps you understand the risk and reward potential on an options trade it's a paste. it's not liquid or a gel. and even explore what-if scenarios. where's gate 87? don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.
wanna take your xfi now you can with xfi advantage. giving you enhanced performance and protection. when devices are connected to your home's wifi, they're protected. helping keep outsiders from getting inside. and if someone tries, we'll let you know. so you can stream, surf and game all you want, with confidence you can get coverage where you need it most. that's xfi advantage. make your xfi even better. upgrade today. call, click or visit a store.
>> go to gabi.com and stop overpaying for car insurance welcome back to "fast money" the chart master is calling for a move to this 10,000 level to weeks ago. >> what we've got here is this and then a consolidation this and then a consolidation. it is just breaking out. so we're back to the days of the bitcoin bug perhaps. i think the important thing is not about how high it can go it is that the lows of december are likely to stand as important lows, and this is an enduring thing to be played on the long side >> lookee there. the bitcoin bug appears. carter, what is next for bitcoin? >> well, this is the wild west to say the least but let's draw some lines because you always can. that's the beauty of charts. we know around 3,000 made it lows in december and we had this great run-up but really it is quite optical it is quite orderly despite all
of the sensationalism. it has been a well-defined trend line it found that trend line repeatedly and the sell-off today. it is a four-session sell-off, 40%. we got close to the trend line charts are important not because i say-so, because they've been around hundreds of years. the level is right i think the betting should be you will get a bounce, you will get a bounce and you will get a bounce let's pull this back a few more times. here to put in perspective is the bigger picture we know we had a huge consolidation, which is what this is, and effectively i think that is your optical setup pull it back a little bit more our all-time high at 19,500. can we get there that's anybody's guess, but what we do know is this is quite orderly. the lows should stand as major lows in december, and this pull-back, 30%, i think it is an opportunity to get long if you're not long already.
>> hey, carter, is the downward -- is the chart basically that broke down, why is that not possible every time? in other words we saw that bitcoin basically through those decembers up to the december lows actually at one point really just gave up and you -- is it about establishing a new base? >> that's right. but, remember, if you really had a long-term chart, of course, it is not only down here but it is down to the carpet, down to the floor, down to the floor below us so it is way, way up since its inception in that sense and i left it off to put the current action in more immediate relief. the point is this was such a big base and it was so abandoned and it was so hated, just as this was such a base from which it collapsed so that you had really this stand-off and you had the epic collapse. you had a base again, and now you have had this very symmetrical recovery i think it establishes the low as the main event. >> you have the bulls coming out
of the woodwork once again is a call for 20k, is that nuts in your view >> you know, former highs are important, and, you know, this thing can move 30% down. you could do that in a matter of hours, the truth is, right it trades 24/7 i like the pull-back i think that's key because the pull-backs are what actually keep it going because you are shaking people out, you are hurting people every time you pull back who won't come back again or who maybe will when it is much higher. >> so it is not nuts >> i don't think it is nuts, and the first chart you saw is very chartable. >> carter, thanks for that up next, final trades.
final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers, integrated management with lower costs and higher returns time for "final trade. tim seymour. >> 5.4%, same-store sales comps in first quarter for mcdonald's is really important. i think the company is accelerating the top line, not just profitability. >> carter worth. >> best food of all, domino's. not necessarily the food but the stocks blows away starbucks love it long. >> mark tepper united health. the multiple is down because of political headwinds but a ton of
momentum. >> dan nathan. >> consumer staples. i think a big too extended here and so you sell. >> you could see "fast money" once again 5:00 p.m. on friday i will see you on "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is to teach you so call me at 1-800-484 cnbc after a big run, you always hear there are just two many bulls. too much excitem