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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 8, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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have a thing for basketball like paul allen but gates has a thing for magic. >> for harry potter maybe? but i love the back handed compliments, sort of flattering him and at the same time calling him a bleep. >> even as we say good-bye -- a fascinating interview. a big afternoon ahead. let's get to the judge in the half. >> carl thanks i'm scott wapner why one wall street firm said it's cutting the exposure to equities to the lowest level in five years so is it time for you to reassess where you stand on stocks it's 12:00 noon, this is "the halftime report." >> morgan stanley is downgrading global equities as powell gets tough for questions from congress plus, a day of several big downgrades, apple, verizon and the regional banks and a sudden pickup for retail
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"the halftime report" with scott wapner begins right now. >> welcome, good to have you with you on a monday joe terranova, we have the chief investment officer and adam parker, ceo, and we begin be the markets. the stocks under pressure this hour follow through perhaps from worries that the strong jobs report may keep the fed from keeping interest rates as much as some hoped. throw in some big-named downgrades and big picture, joe, okay, we said morgan stanley, okay, they have been negative no big shock right? mike wilson sat on this desk and you have got his view. now they say they're putting their money where they their mouth is lowest level in five years big reason lower returns. al plain and simple. right call or not? >> i disagree with the call. disagree with the call because i'm not certain -- first of all, morgan stanley as a wealth
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management company, i'm surprised they're not giving you where are you going with this capital. i don't want to put it in cash, i'm not -- >> emerging market bonds and international stocks >> okay, emerging market bonds i disagree with that international stocks i can see it on a discounted valuation equities on a discounted valuation, but looking at where the equities market is right now, i still believe it's dominated by the sentiment that remains defensive. this time last week the market had its opportunity to go very cyclical to make the shift, the pivot we have been looking for it failed in that attempt. bond proxies that afternoon kept the market supported and in for the remainder of the week -- it was back - >> isn't that a negative >> no, because i don't think the wisdom of the crowds can be that correct in that sense. >> but how far can that take you? >> in terms of a price target i
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don't know the answer. >> no, but you can't get to greater heights of the market if it gets so defensive, can you? >> you can if you get earnings which we'll get in the next couple of weeks that will surprise to the upside i don't know the answer to that. none of us do. i'm not ready to make that call early in june i said play offense. i think it's the right call. >> a.p., they said the fed is going to cut, we all know that but that's going to shine all of the negative reasons why the fed is cutting it may be good for stocks for a minute but then you come to realize that the reason they're cutting is because growth is bad. that's going to supersede everything and weigh on stock returns. >> look, i worked there for a long time and a lot of the people i'm friendly with. >> you don't work there anymore, so call them out. >> yeah, if you're making calls like that -- >> disclaimer line. >> i don't have to do that anymore but if you do it long enough you're going to be bearish right, bearish wrong and i disagree with the call also, i'm with joe i think it comes down to
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earnings if you looked at the note and read it, and it was a long note, but they're saying that earnings expectations are too high. if you look back at the earnings though, analysts think it's 14% growth 12 months forward and the actual is around 6 i don't care that the next year's numbers are 11.5% expectations do you think the earnings are higher than this year? i don't think i should get crazy negative i have a 2% buy back, maybe some m&a, isn't that better than a 2% ten year, i have to pay france now -- i don't know. i look at the world, i don't see u.s. equities as below average investment. >> what do you think, shannon? good call or bad call? >> i think it's -- it's too much i think that neutralizing your equity position at this point in time, probably not now probably eight weeks ago or so is the best call if you look at it from the valuation perspective from the first
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quarter to the fourth quarter. and i think that now, you know, again, i do want to agree with joe. i don't think that with the fed taking the stance that they're taking right now, you know, fixed income is not that attractive, so i would say a neutral stance with some potential overweights and underweights within your equity exposure, i mean, you can derisk your equity exposure without going underweight equities so i think that from our perspective adding something like preferreds gives you equity like exposure and gives you a little bit of a yield. those are ways you can insulate yourself rather than making the binary call of going underweight at in point. >> a while back i got a bunch of people together and i said, tell me something you want to know a year from now. front end, unemployment. i took all that data, i showed i only have a 50% chance of knowing if the market multiple is going to expand or contract
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you want to play the game, do you think the earnings are going to grow and do you think they can surprise to the upside the current valuation level won't matter. >> let's play that game, josh. because jpmorgan says we want to play the game and we think earnings momentum is going to pick up and you should buy stocks city comes out today and says buy any dip. so you have citi and jpmorgan saying buy stocks and morgan stanley says do not. >> most investors aren't listening to them and continue to diversify the%s and buying both bonds and stocks and many of them have some percentage of their portfolio in cash. the important thing to mention here is that no one is buying the 2% ten year because they're excited about it it represents optionality and ballast for a volatile market and a bigger powder for being in a bigger asset class it is not exciting, it doesn't make headlines but it's how the majority of people are investing. the one thing i would say about those three calls, at least the
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jpmorgan guy is saying 12 months out. the morgan stanley call is a 90 day call imagine the madness required to think you know better than 100 million other professional investors about what price assets are going to trade 90 days from now. >> in fairness, they have been more negative on stocks for a longer than that, right? several months leading up to. >> how is that going >> not well. >> you can play that game if you want i don't think it's helpful i don't think most people doing that are doing better than they would if they would look for where can i earn a return over long enough period of time, what diversification of the strategies and some are doing well right now, like momentum. you can invest in the low cost and then other things that have fallen behind like value some is a sector bet or an inverse of the bet but -- wait, hold on if you array the strategies and asset classes and say to yourself it's okay if i'm not right on all of them you'll do
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better longer term than dancing in and out. >> sure. but binary thing, you have to believe to adam's point that earnings are going to pick you were momentum or they're not if they don't -- >> adam would agree that earnings expectations not only start off too high that's by design >> maybe now they're too low. >> well, that's my point consensus has been coming down if not every week at least every other week. >> but it's a range of outcomes for the earnings going forward. >> it's a better set-up when people are getting pessimistic about forward earnings and way better than what you had at the beginning of 2018 where it was tax cut, growth as far as the eye can see. this is a better set-up. >> thank you for bringing that up because beginning of 2018 you had an 18 times multiple now you're at 16 i don't think the valuation is the game to play here. i think the earnings going forward is tremendous and it's not going to be solved by second quarter earnings because so much determines on
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what comes in terms of the trade. you may not remember this, but in april when the can had been kicked down the road in terms of tariffs that were to set in, hey, aren't we getting complacent about trade and the china issue and everybody gave me the george costanza, get out of here, you're crazy sort of routine. i worry -- >> is that an impression >> i thought that was pretty good but moving on i think we're getting into the mode, we got the trade truce last week. i think i'm the first person to bring up china, but maybe not. okay, we're focus on the fed later this week. but i'm worried about complacency. the variation in earnings will be tremendous with what comes from a trade deal with china i have been consistent on this, but i happen to believe there will be a deal struck. i hope it's in the next two months because if you go past labor day and the situation isn't resolved then you have to worry about third quarter earnings you can't keep on going on like that. >> but the trade deal, it's
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clear that the -- >> trade affects earnings. >> listen, the trade dispute is going to stay with us until the election in 2020 what matters -- what's in front of us now is earnings. there is weakness in the economy. where is the weakness coming from though? it's coming from manufacturing and it's fair after friday's labor report to ask yourself the question, is the manufacturing weakness transitory in the sense that it's just an inventory adjustment once you make that inventory adjustment and if it just is a needed inventory adjustment than the federal reserve just sitting back and not giving the market the rate cut is the right thing to do for the any because you'll see a quick rebound in the economy. that's the only part of the economy -- >> so trade war, because i don't get it trade war is going to be with usually to the 2020 election. >> yes. >> defensives are going to continue to be a place to be. >> currently defensives are leading. >> fed shouldn't cut rates
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because you could have a snap back on the trade thing down the road, but you disagree with the morgan stanley call? you have painted a negative picture for stocks haven't you >> absolutely not. i just said the most relevant thing to an investor in the near term is earnings where are earnings going to be - >> the earnings are going to be depressed. >> there's no resolution before 2020. >> but joe, you don't think the earnings - >> it's not a reason to blow up the portfolio. >> i'm not saying doing that the earnings expectations for the s&p 500 for this year were around $180 a share. now they're $167 a share that's a meaningful reduction. in my opinion, you can disagree by that's 100% due to trade tensions with china and the eu as well. that's the sort of variability makes it hard to say whether you should be in or out. >> in terms of asset performance, this trade dispute
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began about 367 days ago asset performance since then is where? are asset -- >> don't think you're running out of runway. >> you have to get a resolution. you can get away with what you just described for 367 days now you're at the point where you're a pilot, you're piloting the airplane, hey, i need a runway, it's running out. >> it can't stay with us. >> i feel like you tell me what you think, adam, joe's painted a scenario where stocks go sideways blow up the -- he's not saying get out but he's not saying it's going to go up. >> there's short term and long term short term i didn't see any negative rereleases or a lot o bad news in the corporates so i think it will be a decent relative earnings season the long term i think is a little bit different i know -- i don't know if i totally agree with jim's point that the decline in forward estimates from nine months ago came from the trade. i think some of it might have.
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i don't know how to make that water fall chart i think it's normal sell side optimism they take it down. as long as we still think earnings are going to grow next year with this trade kind of deal on/off, whatever, i don't care i can still be optimistic that earnings will grow i'm in the camp of long term and short term probably decent if you get industrials and materials and other things that are, you know, consumer imbalances - >> i keep hearing the term decelerated earnings growth from people who are math challenged we had a one time massive fiscal stimulus event and it play out in 2018. it showed up not only in earnings but in record setting buy backs for the s&p 500 and we had that now we're lapping those quarters and people like in a vacuum they're saying, oh, earnings growth is only 2% and it was 7% last year, that sounds bad that sounds like the economy -- has nothing to the with the
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economy. it's mechanics you're not getting another tax break this year so you shouldn't be surprised that there's deceleration in the earnings so i don't understand why we say uh-oh, earnings downturn you don't get a fiscal stimulus every year and with tariffs you have inventories rebalancing the story in europe remains the same bumping along the bottom. the data ebbs and flows. it's not all linear in one direction. >> you're accelerating into 2020 you could have 2% this year and 4% next year. >> and is a smaller share count helping that. >> people are saying very simplistically i had the earning deceleration and the market sold off hard in q4 and so now i'll play the second derivative game and see what happens everyone only remembers the last thing that happened.
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>> how much of a wild card is the fed do you think >> so i mean, again, just to sort of close the china question i think it's important to say, what we were concerned about a year ago was that china was going -- the china tariff situation was going to torpedo the global and we're not seeing that that's why we shifted our emphasis on the fed because now what we're looking for is we're looking for a really easy catalyst for stocks in the last -- in the second half of the year to be able to get the numbers that jpmorgan is talking about. so you know given the jobs number on friday it's not surprising to see the expectations change over the weekend. my concern is that you know we'll hear from powell on wednesday. and he's going to point to the fact that the trade situation has not torpedoed the global economy and that we're seeing hiring and perhaps we have all gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves and i do think that's going to hit some of the higher flying sectors and going to hurt -- not the defensives actually that are doing well, but some of the tech names that
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have been a little bit shaky here i worry about that in -- this wednesday. >> is that the biggest risk right now, that powell bursts our bubble >> for this week, yes. >> leaves us thinking maybe they won't be as accommodative as we think? >> i'm in the who cares camp if i looked back nine months ago, every rate person said we'll have three to four hikes if i make a spreadsheet i put in unemployment, jobs stuff i put in inflation, that kind of stuff. they're all basically the same they were nine months ago. now everyone is saying three to four cuts. so there's like this 150 band with data, yeah, the economy got a little better or worse, but i don't get it my view is they're going to be accommodative, whatever. it will sell off - >> the market will sell off. >> it will for two days. >> i don't see complacency anywhere i know the prices have gone up, the futures markets in chicago is a certainty
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outside of that i don't see complacency on the part of the investor class in fact the flows data is dismal money is going into bond and bond etfs, not going into stocks that's all year. so - >> all years, plural. >> show me where the complacency is, number one number two as someone who not 90 years old and living on the last month's worth of my portfolio i would love to see him disappoint the market and not give a cut. if that means a 10% correction on the s&p because some people got their feelings hurt, guess what every two weeks i'm allocating more money into the market and i'm not rooting to pay all time high prices so i hope that's what happens i think the market needs to learn that it doesn't get what it wants just because it stages a temper tantrum so brilliant. >> it's great point. and candidly the only reason for the federal reserve right now to lower rates is because it is
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following the flows of capital that josh is identifying into bonds. so you're looking at yields in the u.s. that have gone down to 2% and the fed has not responded to it. but all of -- all the fed is doing is responding to what the bond market is pricing. >> as if there's an issue -- with cash right now. >> the fund flows out of actives -- excuse me out of of active etfs and bonds has been going on for years plural, years and years, the baby boomers are retired they need to draw down on the funds to live their lives. but in terms of asking for the market to get disappointed, i'm going to use a line that you use sometimes. i like it, i think it's hilarious but apropos. >> drunks jump up to get beat down. >> no, if the ducks are quacking feed them.
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if you don't, you'll have december you had that happen in december. >> i'm with josh but i wouldn't -- i would not cut rates. i don't think the data support it, but i don't think the markets will sell off 10% if they don't i think if they can convince you we'll do nothing for a while and on observe the data, two years -- everything is fine. >> we had an explosive upside job report where is the emergency required? >> the data doesn't support cutting the rates right now. it's about a preemptive move of what can happen 12 months from now. >> with that logic you would never raise -- that's not in the fed's mandate. if you want to play that game, go to zero forever and see what happens. at a certain point - >> i'm not playing that game. >> you have to ask yourself if all of the press conferences and having eight different members come out and give a speech within the same six month period, you have to ask is any of this helpful and my answer is no i go back to the dark ages we learn we'd measure how many
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papers were sticking out of greenspan's briefcase and that was the best you got and the speech you got after was not in english and we loved it. we were grateful for it. now we let the people box themselves in to things that they might not have to do. a month later, two months later because they're looking at the s&p 500 moving average and they're listening to the president's tweets, but it's not necessary. you're not cutting interest rates in july if you're data depende dependent. fact. >> we should not be wishing for the fed to disappoint this week. it's monday, don't be wishing for that. >> if you believe they shouldn't cut rates it's one and the same. >> so wait. >> the market throws a tantrum -- >> you're looking about for one week straight. >> your explanation is beautiful. i would not be so blase about what the market's tantrum should be i hope you're right. >> but it might be two hours >> do you think we'll have a
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recession because interest rates didn't go down >> wait a second, i can paint the picture you get a 25 basis point and you get a trade deal and we're off to the races i can say that you don't get the cut, the sentiment goes down the tubes. >> it's the opposite if you're not cutting it's because you don't feel it's necessary. why would that send sentiment -- it would send trader sentiment down the tubes for 45 minutes. >> don't kid yourself, you know it flows through to the c suite. you know that. >> and the fed doesn't think it's good to cut the basis .25 at this time >> if they don't put, where do the yields go? >> i don't care where yield goes they go from -- they go from very low to some other iteration of very low. bond yields are irrelevant where the stock market is what's relevant to keep this economy going. >> i think you -- which that maybe it won't sell off?
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i think you changed a little. >> he did. you changed. >> i'm allowing for the possibility that it happens. i don't think it will have a massive economic impact or a prolonged impact on the stock market. >> i'm with you. >> but i feel like - >> the other side is that you cut rates and it doesn't have any economic impact either. >> it's feeding the ducks, it's a great saying, i love it. >> do 25 and maybe the market sells off because they need more i don't think the market sells off if they don't do anything. >> let's make that the last word i want to kick around individual stocks, apple downgraded to the sell at rosenblatt securities. they say the fundamentals will deteriorate over the next 6 to 12 months. and wearables won't deliver at the level that the market wants. talk to me. >> they cut it out in january and the market responded negativity the other side of that was quickly reversed as we have
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talked about in the general market conversation. apple stock has recovered. now you're waiting until july 30th to see what the earnings is going to look like 60% exposure to the iphone, 30% to the chinese where it sits right now is the right value for it. >> 150 is the price target. >> there was a lot of negativity surrounding apple. five sells all initiate 2019 you haven't had that since 1997. >> juner the downgraded to sell at citi. what do you think of that one? >> you know, i think all of these calls you have to differentiate between the long term and the short term. i'm not sure where enterprise spending is on hardware but in the long run they're playing in 5 g that's a long term trend to play out over the next two to three years. i think this is a buy that dips sort of call. >> there's rising risks all the way around elevated valuations are just being driven by historically
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higher earnings growth expectations too high >> i think there are some stocks that are probably too -- valued too high here. but i think there's opportunities and i think that when you look at something like juniper, we have talked about this in the last couple of weeks, talk about semis a binary cyclical play, semis are a good place to do it i think if you look at things like apple and you're talking about you know the potential for the consumer to get weaker, that's a different story i think it's, you know, kind of hard tech versus soft tech i think you need to position yourself accordingly. >> juniper is trading where it was ten years ago, i'm not sure that anyone should care about this it's in a highly competitive business they're losing market share, sometimes gaining market share this is not anything going on in the tech space i agree with what shannon had to say and i think all of the action in tech is in software as a service and enterprise, cloud. that is where people are
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focusing that's where people are paying attention. the 5g story is not even a tech story, but a telecom story. >> yes or no on tech >> i don't necessarily agree that you want to buy the value tech but value tech works when you have accelerating revenue or expanding margins. if you don't have that just because it's cheap, you know it's cheap for a reason. so you know it may be cyclical business like semis, as a whole i kind of like the software stuff. >> you see the verizon call? >> i'm long. >> absolutely. yeah. >> downgraded at citi. they had a buy, take it to neutral. go 62 on the target. >> not negative -- >> listen, verizon has a network centric focus, okay, which the other telco carriers they're getting into media and entertainment and they're focused on 5g. the wireless, yes, they have struggles here what do they have in 5g? $18 billion in free cash flow in 2019 they have $10 billion they're going to dedicate to the dividend if my math is correct that gives
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them $8 billion if they need to increase capex as it relates to 5g they're going to be the telco leader for 5g. >> give me 30 years on the downgrade at morgan stanley and state street, double downgraded. both to sell. >> double downgrade. >> stay street and bny mellon, that's did min us in fees being charged. that's commoditized and competitive. i'm not surprised at all here. you need to be finding areas in financials that have margin associated with them which is why jpmorgan has a great -- is in the space. >> who else wants to hit that? >> i think there's a big difference between, you know, regional banks and big banks i would be, you know, very different on those two the regional banks are rate plays and people trying to, you know, look at twos, tens on the front end. i think the big banks are much more about shareholder return. opportunity for m&a to pick up so i would separate those.
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>> the insurer is doing well i gave you progressive last week kkr a name i own is very strong and american express continues to perform. >> good stuff. here's what coming up -- >> next up, the airline getting a downgrade today. see why the analysts says look out below. plus, we're answering your questions. go to cnbc.com/halftime. what happens to the msci world index after it gains more than 10%? since 1990, the index is up 100% of the time in the next six months by an average of 6% for remo go to cnbc.com. "the halftime report" with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes
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hi, everyone, it's joe from "the halftime report." any questions for me or the other traders go to cnbc.com/halftime and we'll be more than glad to answer those questions. keep them coming, thank you. >> go to cnbc.com/halftime or get us on twitter with the #ask halftime. welcome back, everyone i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. 11 years after letting jeffrey epstein off lightly with a once secret deal, federal prosecutors charged the billionaire financier with sex trafficking they revealed investigators seized nude photos of girls from
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his home >> as alleged, epstein was well aware that many of his victims were minors. and not surprisingly many of the underaged girls that epstein allegedly victimized were particularly vulnerable to exploitation the alleged behavior shocks the conscience the world cup winning u.s. soccer team left for new york this morning, still in the mood for celebration and still advocating for equal pay. >> it certainly should be more and i think that -- yeah i don't even know how to answer that question but i think there needs to be a big investment made in the women's game you are up to date that's the news update scott, back to you. >> thank you sue herera american airlines is higher today despite a down grade by credit suisse.
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there's the stock, they cut the price target to 30 bucks our call of the day. this is based on labor and the max. persistent 737 max risk. good call? >> i'm warm to this call but i can't really get behind it, okay, so the 737 max on the one hand he points out this is going to make their load factors higher we like that it's a force capacity cut but sees higher expenses i understand they have to ground the airplane so more people has to make more stops and i'm not sure i agree with the call i kind of see where he's going on feels like he woke up on monday monther morning and had to put some words on paper here. >> the two stocks, the two airlines that seemed to have the most exposure to the max, american over three months, down 3.5% southwest is flat. everything else is up. >> unfortunately now - >> i'm trying to make the point of an overhang
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for the stocks >> oil is up a little bit over that time. you're in the intraearnings -- >> why are the other airlines up though >> pricing power because of pricing power less planes, less supply, strong demand continues the other carriers that don't have the exposure are able to charge higher prices. >> we bought delta in may, we own boeing as well this wasn't a particular play on the max. we wanted to have some exposure hand and american's balance sheet from an exposure sector we liked the space and we didn't want to be in american. >> you have something? >> i don't know. someone who used the product i'm not a fan. >> just airlines in general, walk everywhere? >> american i find to be a below average experience out of new york that might not be relevant to the current conversation i would throw that in there. >> i do appreciate the positive call on alaska that the analyst makes. that's the one airline i hold, but it's differentiated because they have a good customer experience take it what you want. maybe we should be flying
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alaska the customers like it. >> i think this is about your exposure to the consumer as on the balance sheet side that's what you have to look at. >> shannon, they're all levered up they're all levered up. >> hi, oh, i hate this segment i have nothing to do with any of the stocks i would rather invest in the online travel portals or something where there's growth without all the debt and i agree about flying american. i do not recommend that. strong neutral. >> you're a jetblue guy. >> i am. >> straight ahead, your etf edge stick around give you a check of the s&p sectors to see how they're performing the energy and real estate is in the green. the health care is the biggest drag we are back after this
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i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis.
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get the edge, etfs, profit from the $3 trillion etf market. bob pisani gives you the etf edge only on etf edge.com today at 1:00 eastern. and welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm bob pisani time for etf edge, consumer discretionary touching a new high today up around 6% in the last month check out the top holdings this is the consumer discretionary etf.
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amazon, home depot, starbucks and nike outperforming and jay jacobs of global x funds are here to tell us what this means for the investors. here we have the top five names in the consumer discretionary group. when they outperform they're $100 billion or more, the whole consumer discretionary group will outperform. amazon is 25% of the sector. >> right if you look at xly then the heavyweights performing well are what you want to have and the smaller names in the s&p 500 if those underperform then something like the invesco rcd is going to lag. you need to understand what's inside of each portfolio. >> equal weight isn't doing it the big guys are moving this "l" brands and best buy did all right. when you deal with market cap weighted indexes they're not the ones that move if you're picking stocks they'll do all right how -- do you buy the index or
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buy individual names or take the risk >> if you want market weighted or for the representativeness, that's one way if you want to laser in on some of the high growth names you can look at funds like millennials which targets specific companies that are really trying to grow and target a new generation and look for more specific exposure. >> prime day is next weeks for amazon, monday and tuesday it will be another record day. that will add to it. i see some copycat events for prime day but nothing comes close to that from anybody else. >> right we have to see if we expect if it's a record breaking event for amazon we have seen other companies like target or best buy that are trying to get some of the traffic. but you really do see a spike when we look at the historical data so if you like xly you want to be looking forward to a consumer discretionary sector doing well with amazon's prime day. >> is it ever when the small guys will do all right
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it's not outperforming, but the big guys that are dragging the whole index along. is there a point that the small guys are going to matter at this point when picking the small cap winners will really move the index? >> you have to ask what are the small companies doing differently to separate themselves from the markets. i mean, right now, look at the amazons of the worlds, they're the innovative ones not the small companies right now. so it makes sense some of bigger names that are on the cutting edge of innovation are continuing to experience that outsized growth. but there are smaller cap names that have started to ipo, they're performing well. i think there is is opportunity at the bottom. >> we mentioned the retail names and yet, general motors is doing well this quarter here we tend to think consumer discretionary that's all retail, but that's not the case. gm and others have done really well. >> you have gm performing well the auto space have started to recover. people think is an amazon way of playing it, but home depot, starbucks, other companies that round out the overall sector. >> before i let you go,
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$4 trillion etf's passed last week we hit $4 trillion, $3 trillion two years ago, and where are we going from here? >> yeah, i think we'll see continued growth so you're seeing demand for fixed income etfs start to pick up. that helps to round out the portfolio. the more trading oriented vehicles picked up in june we think that's head room to go. >> thank you for more, catch our live show. we'll discuss a major milestone and chat with bill studebaker of robo global. we'll get to the stocks next and you still have time to reach us go to our website or tweet us. there you go right there w67b d w67b89d. up -- we're back in less than a
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♪ welcome back joe coming to you first from timmy in titusville, florida gps that's the gap, buy, sell, hold >> no, that's a hold we're going to wait for the spin of old navy in 2020. we'll make sure that we're in on the old navy spin that's the opportunity. >> all right josh for you from jimmy in oklahoma city. lucken coffee under $20 a share and what happens to russell westbrook? i added that at the end? >> i don't know. i understand the chinese market is growing at 10 x and this company is a dominant player because they have great tech
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you have no possible way to really vet whatever they say the financials are this is so far away from what i think individual people need to be doing if you're trading it for fun knock yourself out but this is just very far away from anything i would ever be like, yeah, you should go trade a chinese coffee stand like it's madness. westbrook. i would love to see something happen, believe it or not. with the rockets i think they have done splashy deal in the past that would be really exciting to me. >> okay. thank you for that that added thing from indiana for a.p software stocks, buy more or sell what i have >> no, i would buy more. i think they're growing. they're disrupting and, you know, i think it's outperformed the index with 17 in the last 17 years you know, it's a part of the market that's going to continue to grow and there's -- what are equities at? i buy my little dream today and sell it to a sucker with a bigger dream later a lot of dreams in software so i don't want to get negative.
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>> the pacers than the celtics >> no, pacers are going to be good. >> shannon, pfizer versus merck, who dow yoo you like better? >> we recently sold pfizer i think you want to be careful not to own too much pharma going into the 2020 election but we like merck it has a solid dividend and it has a good platform of drugs and -- >> what's your take on the memphis grizzlies, anything? >> why are we going with memphis? >> what are your thoughts? >> on the mavs, they have a strong young team. you know >> she's a celtics fan don't make her deviate from her -- >> they have boy zin guess who doesn't play >> okay, activision blizzard
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versus ea? >> let's start with this, ivan, a tough space. the sentiment is so negative in this space that it's probably ripe for a turn around but you won't know that looking at the chart and there's always some negative news that comes out. the answer to your question is ea because this isn't just about how many downloads of apex legends goes on. it's their esports franchise that's what differentiates them. >> do the raptors make the playoffs without kawhi >> more importantly does ivan care more about that or the maple leafs sign marner? i think marner. >> don't look at me. >> yes >> it's the east i could make the playoffs. >> good stuff. the state of the consumer is 'lming up. wel trade on pepsi, levi's, bed, bath & beyond this is the couple who wanted to get away
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welcome back we mentioned the retail earnings that are on deck this week
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i thought maybe adam you'd set the scene for us on the consumer. >> i still like the consumer i don't see any broad evidence it is slowing. you know, we saw the jobs stuff was pretty strong. i don't see oil as a big impediment, savings is pretty good so i don't get big impediment saving is pretty good. i don't get the bear case as being too powerful here. discretionary, i don't want to fight that trend i remember back in january '08, you had that surprise cut in consumer, outperformed seven straight years after that. >> so then let's go to the earnings pepsi, levi's, bed, bath and beyond >> levi's is probably the least talked-about yet one of the most successful ipos for investors year to date i like the story i think you'll hear something related to earnings that will get you excited in investing in
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this company >> we're looking at, for pepsi, how their emerging markets exposure is doing. if you're trying to play emerging markets, there's a huge component of that in pepsi's earnings >> national beverage, this is a stock that's now down two-thirds, but lost almost all its market cap and the rumors are that one of these large cola companies eventually will get the old man to sell. but like 30% of the float is short. that's a wild stock, i don't know >> i looked at that one in the past i think the issue is you've got the ceo who owns 73% of the shares >> yeah. he has to want to sell >> there was a japanese company that looked at it several years ago and couldn't get their arms around some of the financials. that one seems to me like it will be tricky until you get some better decisionmaking at the top. and it's such a competitive space. you've had nestle come in, pe
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pellegri pellegrino >> pepsi went aggressive at shelf space. the question is how much of that is reflected in the stock that loses two-thirds of its market cap in a year. the other thing with the complicated financials, they said that about green mountain coffee >> they're making stuff that probably can't be sustainable. you have an eccentric ceo, he's had some lawsuits for stuff that you can read about online. i don't know if people want to get in there especially when they have their own products it's a commodity, the way they make it. these guys are all putting chemicals and fragrances in, it's all a commodity to me >> i'm all here for the chemicals. we'll be right back straight ahead on "the halftime report" l. ...or trips to mars. $4.95.
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let's go around the horn and do some final trades >> my final thought would be, i wouldn't be too negative on the world. i don't really care what the fed does ultimately i don't think it matters for the medium to long term trajectory. i think equity look good in the u.s. >> do you think the fed cuts
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rates this month >> i think they do but i don't think they should find. >> good seeing you, thanks for being here >> jpmorgan. mentioned it before, the stress tests aren't nearly as important as they were from seven or it's years ago when we were actually worried about the health of the financial system jpmorgan is going to be returning a ton more capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks if you want to play the financial space with headwinds, do you it with their margin and wealth management business which jpmorgan does very well. >> looking forward to earnings coming up from the banks jim? >> judge, we talked about alaska airlines earlier today there's a reason i'm making it my final trade if you look at the chart, it looks beautiful, but the 200 moving-day average in the 50, they're about to cross in a golden cross pattern some will say, stay in your lane but that's one pattern with a very good correlation with returns. >> is josh one of those who
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would say that >> cue josh. >> i just threw up in my mouth goldman sachs is holding the gap. we tested the lower end of that. i do, again, to reiterate, 208, 210, this is where the stock could explode. there's not a lot of resistance up to 230. don't be the first in the trade. >> technology mid-cap, open? miscellaneous, snps. we don't talk about it much. they provide software that goes into the chips >> there you go, thank you dow right now was down 150, it's down 130 right now. he ehae"s xtg. for watchin "txcng ine sfx: [phone ringing]
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you still have service? call the insurance company it's them, calling us. it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house
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i don't see any hovering his name is hovering? look up? by automating claims with machine learning and analytics, cognizant is helping insurance companies advance how they serve even hard to reach customers. cool ♪ hi, everybody, welcome back. here's what's ahead this hour. the fed under fire, president trump keeping up his anti-powell drumbeat, now getting high profile report, some fed watchers saying the fed is getting highly problematic plus raising confidence by raising billions in new debt does that actually hurt confidence more than it helps? we will ask. he ran major league baseball for 20 years bud selig will join me live tonight. what's his take on sports betting? and much

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