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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  May 19, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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market in meltdown futures lower as stocks post the worst day in two years inflation and fears of the slowing economy cutting into everything target losing one quarter of the value on wednesday alone worst day in 30 years. it is all about spending and consumer as prices on everything from milk on to gas surge and many believe they are not going to come down any time soon what you pay at the pump and cool your home this summer may be going higher. it is thursday, may 19th this is "worldwide exchange.
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well good morning here in america and in europe. good evening in asia thanks for joining us on what is no doubt a busy thursday i'm brian sullivan let's jump in and while it is early, it is looking like it could be another rough day on wall street. futures are lower again. they are down across the board all of the indexes down 1% the dow off 400. the nasdaq down 200. this after a nearly 1,200-point loss for the dow and 4% drop for the s&p 500. their worst day since the pandemic hit in 2020 how bad was it internally? only eight s&p 500 stocks rose that's it. 11 fell over 10% led by the target's staggering
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25% drop the worst day since black monday october 19th, 1987 the nasdaq and big tech is where most of the pain has been. it is down 30% from the all-time highs hit just in november of last year. small caps or russell 2000 down 28%. tran transports seen as an economic cater is down 25% from the all-time high. this is sending buyers back into bonds. the 10-year yield remains under 3% in fact, 2.84% energy which may be the biggest reason if not the biggest reason for the inflation-led selloff. oil fell on wednesday. crude is lower just below $110 a barrel if you note, it is exactly on parity with brent crude.
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that is traded overseas and that is more expensive. they are exactly the same right now. maybe because the u.s. dollar has surged so much natural gas, though, rose on wednesday. one of the few things in the green. that means that things like utility bill and air conditioning cost to manufacture it will keep going up into the summer in crypto, bitcoin and ethereum are down all of the major coins are down. the ceo of blockchain will join us in minutes to talk about crypto and the markets they are one of the cnbc di disruptor companies for 2022. and let's get a check of the world markets. hong kong down 2.5%. japan is also down the uk market in europe fell or is falling by more than 2% in fact, in many ways, inflation there is worse than here
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all of the averages in europe are down by more than 1% right now. let's begin right there on stocks and the first guest put out a note saying the bottom is probably not here yet because of a lack of washed out readings. that was before yesterday's collapse eight s&p 500 stocks rose. the vix, fear gauge, soaring above 30 has that changed craig johnson's mind he is from piper sandler yesterday was one of the worst days we have seen in years if not decades. do you feel we are getting close to some kind of a washout bottom >> brian, it is like the family road trip we experienced as parents. they keep asking you, "are we
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there yet, dad." the answer is no we saw the pressure in selling yesterday. i look at indicators the 200-day moving average i'll look at our 40-week technique. they are not at levels commence with washouts from 2020. there is still more down side to go if i was to frame that up for you, brian, if you look at the chart of the s&p 500, you will see a pretty well defined head and shoulders top noformed we could not get back above the line that would suggest 3,500 to 3,600 range as the down side
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objective. we have another 10% before we find a tradeable bottom. >> bells and sirens don't ring at tops or bottoms we never know until we look back in history are you looking at those technical indicators the moving average and convergence or mac d will there be some kind of white flag that you will see and say okay, that does look like the bottom >> that white flag, brian, is the data that comes out of our proprietary data set here. we look at our industry groups and how many of the industry groups are below what we would say is the 40-week moving average. the bottoms we called in 2018 on this show in the morning, we found we were around 0 to 10%.
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the reading yesterday shows we are at 15% we don't often see that indicator stops at 15% it usually when it breaks 20, it goes between 0 and 10% we're at 15 now. that's what i'll be watching the risk, brian, that indicator could go to zero and stay there for a while like in 2008 and 2009 i'm not sure that will happen this time. i think the indicator will do a very good job of steering us into the market. it will come from a lower level. let me also add, brian, i'm not changing my year-end price objective of 4,775 once we hit the washout point, we will have a nice rally in the market it will start from the lower level. >> what would be the catalyst? if you are right and over the years, you have been far more right than wrong, craig. you have called other things and people went against you and you
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were on the money. what kind of catalyst for that rise higher? what would change? inflation is not going away. >> if you look at what happened with hometown favorite target. inventory and cost pressure. th those are more deflationary. some of the inflation pressures could wane i expect bond yields to come down in price. if all those come together, it will be a tug-of-war with the fed. will they go ahead and keep raising the rates? if we continue to see the deflation trends build, rates will come down you have almost 8 or 25 rate increases built in that plays out like a chicken and egg game with the fed at this point in time you have less than eight increases priced in.
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>> i know the fed will say they are not political and obviously we can debate that all day long. the reality is the economy is on the precipice. we have a big election in november it sounds like you think the fed could change their mind. right now, jay powell is saying we're in a cost pain and take this economy wherever it needs to go to bring down inflation. you wonder how much they will stick by that, craig >> i agree you watch the market and you watch consumers and you look at the consumer spending and where it comes from. people watch portfolios. a lot of good and retired people in the country watching these shows. they see the portfolio go down in value and they start to make choices how they will spend money. that is another deflation trend if they pulling in the reins on consumer spending. >> is there one thing more than anything else, craig, you are watching
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is there one pain point or one indicator or one signal? anything, quik quickly, you cann to most? >> the signal is the 40-week indicator and how many groups are above the 40-week moving average. that is what i'll watch to see when the bottom is formed and set. that is the indicator for me >> craig johnson of piper sandler. watching the indicators there and going to the worst case, but no washout yet jim cramer agrees. he tweeted that out right now. jim doesn't sleep. i appreciate that, craig >> thank you, brian. let's get to the headlines and the rush to fix america's baby formula shortage. bertha coombs is here with that and more good morning, bertha >> good morning, brian president biden invoking the
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defense production act in the major step to try to boost supply of baby formula the order will require suppliers to direct resources to infant formula manufacturers. this comes after the voluntary recall by abbott nutrition and closure of the michigan factory in february. also announcing operation fly formula that will use u.s. military aircraft to import formula from overseas. melvin capital management will unwind funds and return cash to investors amid losses during the market turmoil this year you will recall melvin was the big victim from the meme stock frenzy due to the short position in gamestop. they had to infuse $3 billion to shore up finances at the time.
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the fund founder failed to recover losses at the end of the first quarter, the fund was down 21%. and meta or the company we know as facebook reportedly pulling back investments on a number of products from the zoom video chat competition and shopping meta is freezing hiring for certain engineering roles and low-level data scientists. at the all-hands meeting last week, mark zuckerberg not ruling out potential layoffs. meta shares down more than 39% this year, brian we are hearing more and more companies freezing positions you have to think we could see pink slips >> yeah. maybe we should go back to calling them facebook. meta was bad karma bertha coombs, thank you
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we have more to do on this busy thursday. on deck, more on target and walmart retail wreck why stacey widlitz is expecting more pain. and gas is over $5 a gallon in many parts of the country sadly, don't expect relief a any time soon. paul is here to talk about it. and what has happened for the first time in 75 years refill that coffee futures down again we are back right after this what do you think healthier looks like? cvs can help you support your nutrition, sleep, immune system, energy ...even skin.
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let's check out the faang stocks they are dropping the most 52-week high bertha talked about facebook/meta. that stock down 52% from the all-time high. apple is a key component in so many different etfs. it runs the market in many ways. when it it is down it is hard for the overall market to go higher. you see a huge drop there from the 59 it 52-week highs.
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we are seeing all names down across the board the highs we showed you, they were only back in november six months ago quite the turn in a short amount of time. time now for the big money movers three other key stock headlines. cisco systems, one of the most valuable companies in the world, is down. cisco now expects fourth quarter revenue to drop. on the conference call, chuck robbins said supply issues were e exacerbated by the china shutdown and inventory issues. he said we did not have a plan for the country to shutdown. robbins will be on "squawk on the street" today.
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and under armour ceo patrick frisk is stepping down he says it is a mutual separation he will be replaced by coo colin brown. stock three is bath and body works. also down after the rough session yesterday. stock fell 8%. cutting guidance for the year. bath & body works is facing higher costs for raw materials and shipping and labor a rough run for stocks that stock fell nearly 9% on wednesday. so much left to do and coming up, social media companies under pressure this morning as well as the new york attorney general ramps up the investigation. full story and the fallout when we come back first, who has been hit the hardest this week in the s&p 500? well, target, obviously on that list wiping out a quarter of the
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value just yesterday the rest mostly all retail walmart, bath & body works and dollar tree. those are the declines this week with the drop right now? cisco makes that list. stock futures down across the board. we are back right after this
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$5,000 that's how much u.s. households will spend on gasoline this year according to the yardeny research that is a 32% increase from march alone and up nearly 80% from last year >> $5,000 this year. quite the staggering stat. by the way here is another one. the aaa national average for a gallon of gas across america is $4.59 a gallon that is up 50% from one year ago. diesel is higher $5.58. more than $7 around here that is up 76% from a year ago this as production in texas ramps up just this monday, a couple days ago, the white house started the 160 million barrel release from the petroleum reserve that runs through the fall joining us is paul sankey. he has been on the mark on this
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story. paul, you have been talking about the refineries and the risk to supplies for a long time we get critical inventory data at 10:30 this morning. what should we closely watch for today? >> the overall, we are looking at demand overall. you have been looking at the subject. the question is supply is so weak and when will prices get to the point they destroy demand? the concern there is you have to slow down the economy and it becomes a question of destroying the economy in order to rational 00 ize the markets. i don't think there is anything the administration can do about that build ing a new refinery in the u.s. is what you need and that is kind of impossible. >> talk about building a new one, paul. we lost 50%. we had 14 in the mid-atlantic to
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the northeast 15 or 20 years ago. we have seven now. one destroyed by the 2018 explosion in philadelphia. that refinery, i drove by it the other day, it is being torn down i don't want to be a grim r reaper they want to run at full output to make as much money. what would happen if we had another industrial accident? >> you are on the verge of an oil crisis i'm talking shortages. we have never seen inventories this low, particularly in the northeast, as you implied. we have not seen gasoline this low in history with inventories low. the refiners have to decide do i make this or gasoline? someone has to lose. particularly with jet fuel resuming with demand over the
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summer and gasoline with the peak driving season. the concern as you highlighted is hurricane season which could cause problems we nighmight have a crisis this summer, brian. >> it is like you have two kids and one pot. one kid says they want bacon and the other says sausage you will not cook them together, although they would be delicious. that's where refineries are right now. paul, they have to choose between do i make diesel and sell it to europe because they're in just as bad situation to make money or gasoline? if you are valero or pdf how do you pick >> of course, it is $50 a barrel margin they are making an enormous amount of money. you would think with the strong dollar and with massive prices
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in the u.s., we would not be exporting. we are exporting to europe and latin america. they can't run refineries either the refining crisis story in a world for example in washington where they don't understand energy well, i don't think they get it at all. of course, in russia, you lost 1.5 million barrels a day. europe, as you highlighted is a mess the did news for u.s. refiners for profit ability, we have low natural gas prices gas here is $8 btu not off from the all-time record that is less than the $30 in europe the energy world at the moment right now is insane. weneed to talk more. >> we do i think there is so much talk about the energy transition that may or may not happen. you know, people have the takes. if you don't like the price of
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gas, go out and buy an electric car. the people hit by the price of gas are the ones that are not buying a $60,000 ev. >> that's the priceof the ev it's going up. it's going from $60,000 to $70,000. you are right. >> and phil lebeau reported on that yesterday battery prices going up just as fast as gas. paul sankey, thank you very much for joining us >> thanks. >> hope we don't have industrial accidents this summer. that would be a crisis. ahead, we dig into the market meltdown further and try to find a bright spot. we will show you the only eight stocks in the s&p 500 that rose on wednesday we're trying dow futures down more than 400 nasdaq off 1%. we're back right after this.
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another rough day on wall street could be ahead. futures are down across the board after the dow's worst day since the beginning of the pandemic retail mark down rolling on. target posting the worst day in
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30 years is this as bad as it gets for big retail maybe history has good news for you. the morning rbi is ahead why this market meltdown could actually mean a good second half for the year it is thursday, may 19th the glass? it's always half full on "worldwide exchange" on cnbc welcome or welcome back. good thursday -- is it friday yet? it feels like an eight-day week with the markets we are getting there good morning just about 5:30 on this thursday let's get right now to stocks and the markets. that's why you're here after the nearly total collapse on wednesday. we don't say that word lightly selling could continue things could change. nasdaq down 200. dow futures down 434 if we take a closer look at the
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past six hours and futures are thinly traded. one guy in one desk in europe could come in and make a trade on the futures and change things around futures really taking a turn for the worst at 3:00 eastern turn when the "worldwide exchange" team was at work after the 4% drop for the s&p 500. the worst day since the pandemic hit in march of 2020 nasdaq was worse tough for big tech down 5%. this is the market stat of the day. how bad was it on wednesday? 500 names in the s&p and eight s&p 500 rose tj maxx, nrg, assurant,
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progr progr progressive. the only stocks that rose. the question is whether today was the washout. it had huge down volume. ten times of the up volume nearly every stock was lower the vix popped above 30. craig johnson of piper sandler said we are not at the bottom yet. jim cramer agreed with him we won't know until we hit it. there will be a short-term bottom whether it is the bottom who knows. it will be a short-term bottom that send buyers into bonds. 10-year yield down to 2.84%. something else to watch by the way. we don't talk about credit we probably start to need to credit, debt, corporate debt, is starting to look shaky the jnk, the widely held high
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yield etf continues to fall. indicating concern about the balance sheets of some lower credit graded companies. jnk is down 13% this year. remember, especially as the credit people will tell you, that leads to the stock market jnk. something to watch let's watch the other top corporate headlines, including new york attorney genejgeneral' office going after social media companies. bertha coombs is back with that. >> reporter: the new york attorney general's office will investigate social media companies including twitch and 4chan over the shooting at the buffalo supermarket last week that left ten dead and three
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injured. nhtsa investigating the tesla crash that killed three people was operating on au automated driving system this is part of the larger inquiry over the advanced driver assistance systems like the auto pilot for tesla the team has gone to more than 30 crashes in which the systems were in use or suspected of operating. of the 34, 28 were teslas. and kohl's is losing two executives amid pressure from activists to sell the business toorg taccording to the filing. craig neville, the chief marketing officer is expected to
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depart june 1st. those filings coming as kohl's is expected to report the first quarter ahead of the opening bell this morning. kohl's shares not spared coming off the 11% loss which puts it down for the year by 12%. brian, the sad thing is, that makes it a relative out performer compared to target >> that says something to be down that much and you are doing better hey, dad, i got a c minus. my brother got a d plus. thank you, bertha. c minus. i wish. let's stick with it. target lost nearly a quarter of the market value in one day. wiping out almost two years of stock gains. worst day in 35 years. it wasn't just them. they bore the brunt. pain felt across the retail
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sector best buy and macy's and kohl's all losing 10% walmart and home depot and lowe's extending losses all coming off 6% declines investors throwing the baby out with the bed, bath & beyond water. joining us now is sw retail advisers stacey widlitz. stacey, you know me and my wife talk about this. we went from extreme pricing power a few months ago to seemingly almost no pricing power and no ability to raise prices even as costs go up what happened? it's like the light switch went from on to off >> brian, i have been on your show how many times in the past two years where we talked about this fact with which is the
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covid period where there was no inventory. companies were saying this is the new norm alnormal we'll sell less stuff as higher margin the circle of retail has come full circle. we are over inventory. target is a good example we know what happens in the situations margin pressure. mark downs we are right back to pre-covid and we're going to see accelerated mark downs particularly when you hear $700 billion combined revenue with walmart and target blind sided by consumer behavior changes and costs. that absolutely shook retail to the core yesterday >> yeah. listen, these ceos, and i'm not picking on one over the other. these ceos make tens of millions of dollars and they have one job.
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you know what that job is? that job is to predict it is like the movie "margin call." the financial crisis the ceo says my job is to know when the music stops that's it. that's their job they all missed it how did they miss it how did they miss the consumer who shutoff spending on higher margin items in such a quick period of time what did they not see? >> a great question. we knew we were past stimulus and inflation is crazy and over 8% in the u.s. and over 9% in the uk we know what will happen historically we know consumers trade down they go private label and buy smaller sizes. they seem to be surprised at this speed with which it happened we saw the shift away from higher ticket items discretion
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s discretionary into essentials. should we have seen this comcomg yes. it happened far faster than expected >> is there any company or retailer out there, stacey, got it less right? we will find out some of the stocks did not deserve to go down as much as they are the market doesn't care. the market is throwing gasoline and lit match on every stock it can. at some point, somebody is coming out a winner. >> that is the issue the retail index has been down 30% at this point. there are names if you look at the multiyear outlook like nike who is going dtc and taking back control of the brand and still has the brand. 20% of the business is in china which is problematic closed down.
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yes, consumer spending is coming in if you look at a long-term opportunity, there are brands like nike to pick up i would say we're also looking at a point in time with massive disruption with inflation and costs. you look at target traffic was still up you know, walmart was all ticket there will would be some incredible long-term opportunities out of this. there is probably more pain to come particularly with the markdowns in the apparel space. >> maybe good for tj maxx. one of eight s&p 500 rose yesterday. >> yes this is the best environment for them >> yes the treasure hunt shopping tj maxx loves mistakes stacey, love having you on thank you. >> thank you, brian. coming up, the rbi
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what with what the market is on the verge of doing in years and what may be good for the second half of the year that's coming up. we have futures down across the board. the european markets off 1.5% to 2% crypto also down it will be another rough day on the street of dreams we're glad you're with us and we're back after this. it's everywhere. but for someone to be able to work from here, there has to be someone here making sure everything is safe. secure. consistent. so log in from here. or here. assured that someone is here ready to fix anything. anytime. anywhere. even here. that's because nobody... and i mean nobody... makes hybrid work, work better. ♪ ♪ what do you think healthier looks like? ♪ ♪
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welcome back let's check the markets with the dow futures down 400 nasdaq futures off more than 1%. biggest decliners. cisco systems off 14% after cutting guidance visa down. what we just talked about with the concerns over the consumer salesforce is lower across the board. dow futures off 440 points time for the morning rbi it is about the markets and your money. what else? there is random, but interesting things going on right now. one is the jim paulson move that is interesting we think it is interesting we will lift it. every single bear market after world war ii has been proceeded by one drop. in three of the last five, the
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s&p 500 fell 10% or more at least five times before the bear market hits. not this time. in fact, according to paulson, this is the first time in 75 years that the s&p goes into a bear market without a 10% drop at first thank you, jim the next is from charlie of compound capital this is a pure combination of bad news with a little bit of good news. always take the bad news first, by the way here it is with yesterday's drop, the s&p 500 is down nearly 18% this year that is the second worst start to a year ever it is slightly worst than 1939 and 1970s drops and second to the massive 1932 drop of 33% as the depression hit ouch there may be good news here. as he notes in those years, the market rose a good amount for
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the remainder of the year. up 27% from today through december 31st in 1932 and 15 in 1 1970 they took the sting out of the years. who can blame us for looking for a little historical bright spot in an unwise nasty year. ra random, but interesting. craig johnson. you heard him earlier. the disruptor 50 list was revealed this week investors are pushing down public and private stock valuations of the 50 firms that made the cut, eight are involved in fintech and crypto including the next guest that index is seeing volatility.
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we have peter smith with the latest it is timely to have him on. peter, i mean this with affection. you are an old hand at this business you have been around for years one of the early companies in the space. you have grown and learned and adapted. congratulations on making the list i'm sure people are asking you what the heck is going on? what is your answer? >> it is a real privilege to be in the top ten of the list we appreciate the honor. i think what is going on in the market is a washout of risk and leverage across the entire global market system you know, certainly in crypto, we felt that very keenly particularly the last few weeks. i think one of the changes i have been saying on cnbc for a long time is this is going to be a very long process of adoption and growth when you think about crypto position, you need to average into it slowly and plan to hold
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it for quite some time we are still in the nascent period of watching this. >> is there a bottom signal, peter? from where you sit, running the multibillion dollar corporation, is there something you are looking for that will tell you that's the turn? >> yeah. you know, when we see more buyers and sellers small jokes aside, you need to see consolidation in the market itself as well as companies serving the market what i would expect to happen over the next few weeks after the dramatic pull down in the market is some of the risk to being exposed throughout the ecosystem. companies that haven't been man managing risk and trading firms not managing risks appropriately
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and shutdown of funds will take a few weeks to see the ripple out of funds the good news, there is never more opportunity in the space. >> all i read is history because i like to know the future. history repeats itself in the 1870s, there were a couple of hundred railroads and went to five or ten and then a couple hundred car companies and whittled down over time. as painful for terra, do we need that washout do we need the weaker players to go away and consolidation and get bigger and better and find something else to do i know it sounds tough >> i really believe in the creative destruction process of capitalism you are seeing that play out in the market today what i will say about financial services, usually you end up
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with more companies. not like railroads or cars a lot of value able services companies. there will would be more companies in the segment there are companies that do protocols and assets and we need the process of creative destruction to come through the market and make the market a lot stronger as you said, i have been doing this a really long time. i have seen this play out. these market cycles. this is my fourth or fifth market cycle depending on how you count it every single time it has been brutal pain on the way in. it has led to a stronger industry and more useful industry and real fundamental growth over the two and three years that follow. >> great context >> yeah. >> peter, we have to leave it there. i apologize. we have to head to break congrats on making the list. thank you for your comments.
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peter smith. thank you very much. >> thank you on deck, victoria greene is here is she still sticking by her comment? that's next. >> announcer: cnbc disruptor 50 is sponsored by the new york stock exchange it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules and redefining the game... ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. (applause) ♪ ♪
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to help you quickly overcome any obstacle ... without all of this. oh, that is better. who's that? oh, if you want coffee, you gotta get past tantrum. you're in for a brewed awakening. for technology that moves you forward, trust cdw amplified services futures are down across the board. as tough as the market has been, it could get tougher in the near term joining us now is victoria greene victoria, great to have you back on futures are down again the markets have been brutal it has been a tough year the s&p 500 is still up like 80% off the pandemic low there is that. i'm trying to find a little bit of a bright spot where are you investing? i'm trying where are you investing right now? >> look, we're trying to play defense. all you have trying to do is
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survive. it will get worse before it gets better yesterday was ugly that is not full capitulation. you started to see value stocks dragged downbased selloff. you need to survive rather than chase after growth >> you wanted to buy low and sell high. for ttunes are made that way. with that in mind, who are the companies, victoria? >> we still like the energy sector we love devon energy diamondback. the energy market had a shift with the russian invasion of ukraine. we think the u.s. producers with the permean is a great place to be and weather the storm they are having a 12% to 13% yield of cash flow and trading 10 to 12 pe.
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they are reasonably valued i want to be in stocks like that right now. i warrnt to be paid to wait. will we see tech eventually come back absolutely right now, i'm not chasing that. i want to be in the energy stocks >> wow with. what about ibm switching gears. it is a name you talked about in the past a confusing company to a lot of people you love ibm i love big blue transporting to the cloud company. they reinvested in the past. it is a great turn around story and 5% dividend yield. it prints cash i do like some of the old tech i know cisco missed hard they are not my favorite ibm is also a good stock you can hide in right now. what i'm looking for in stocks like that is sustainable cash flows.
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if you get stressed, can you have did cash coming in? i really like the turn around story. it is very much misunderstood. they spun off all of the stuff they wanted to get rid of. i'm on it. >> yeah. terrible name. maybe a good company longer term don't panic sell victoria greene. bringing the heat. bringing the picks we love you for it victoria, thank you. have a great day i want what's in her coffee. she's in texas it's like 4:58 victoria, thank you. thank you, folks we are back tomorrow with the insider buying segment and companies that are bought by executives that could be a sign of a turn for those names. we'll see you tomorrow "squawk" is next futures are wn aosthdocrs e board. have a good day.
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gasoline is hitting an all-time high it's thursday, may 19th, 2022. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you were looking for relief this morning, go back to bed you won't find it. futures are indicated sharply lower again. down 1%. the dow futures off 450. s&p down 60. the nasdaq off 207 this adds to the steep declines yesterday. the dow was off about 1,100 points down 1,200 closed dow


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