tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN April 20, 2014 10:00am-11:01am PDT
according to a radio transcript that just came out, a crew member says passengers aboard the doomed ferry could not board lifeboats because the vessel had tilted too much too fast. and christians away the world are celebrating easter sunday. the day they believe jesus christ rose from the dead. in his second easter message since becoming head of the catholic church, pope francis prayed for an end to conflicts in the middle east, ukraine. he delivered his speech from the balcony at the vatican. gps begins right now. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakharia coming to you live from new york. on today's show, we will bring you the latest from ukraine.
then we will go in depth on sanctions. many said they would never work, that putin wouldn't care, but have they done the trick and what would they look like if things get worse? also a fascinating new international ranking done by harvard's michael porter. is the usa number one? try number 16. i'll talk to porter about the study. and a week after three people were killed in an anti-semitic attack in kansas, i will talk to simon sherman, the author of the story of the jews about why jews have been a target for more than 2,000 years. but first, here's my take. over the past two months, we have watched what has looked like a minor version of the cold
war between the west and russia. many people are wondering, how did we get here? was this confrontation inevitable or did the west mishandle russia from the start? in the mishandling camp is jack matlock, former u.n. ambassador to the soviet union in the late 1980s who watched from moscow as mikhail gorbachev presided over the cold war. he wrote, the united states has treated russia as a loser since the end of the cold war. in the years after the cold war ended, writers urged policy toward a more gentle moscow. i was one of them. my logic was simple. we had two healthy experiments in peace settlements after world wars. after world war i, the victors punished germany and left it outside the new international system.
it proved to be a disaster, leaving a wounded and angry germany pining for revenge. after world war ii, on the other hand, the united states and its allies were magnanimous toward germany and japan, integrating those countries into the new global order. that piece of 1945 succeeded brilliantly. so i thought we should do our best to try to integrate russia into the structures of the new post-cold war world, give it aid and help rebuild its economy and society. now, western countries did provide some help, but not really on the scale that a vast country like russia needed after the complete collapse it had gone through in the early 1990s. but if the west did not do enough, russia also pursued policies that made integration very hard. by the early 1990s, moscow had launched a ferocious war against chechnya, a part of russia that had been seeking independence from moscow for more than a century. estimates vary, but many believe
the russian army killed over 200,000 people in the first and second chechnyan wars. this is not how germany and japan behaved after world war ii as they sought integration. and at home, russians were quickly developing a prickly resistance to outside interference, and russian politicians who urged integration with the west became marginal figures with tiny followings. looking at this record, the historian ann applebaum has argued, also in the "washington post," that the west fundamentally misunderstood russia. it saw the place as a western country in the making if only we had put forward the right policies. in fact, she argues, russia derives its identity from being a non-western country, perhaps even from being an anti-western
country in the sense that it is distinct and different from the west. perhaps the west could have done more to help russia, but it does appear to me looking back that the russia of the late 1980s and early 1990s of gorbachev and yeltsin may have been a special moment in history, the time when they were weak, its leadership lightened and worn out by decades of communist failure. the mood of that country changed quickly as oil prices rose in the 1990s. the russian economy grew and the russian state reasserted itself. in russia there has always been a great debate, at least since the 1840s, between westernizeres and slavofiles. the western russia wanted russia to become western, while the slavofiles thought it need to do
lay in its slavic foundation. today, at least, it looks like the slavofiles were right. go to my website and read my take. and let's get started. the truce brokered in geneva last week may have made sense to those at the table, but does it help western ukraine? they want to lay down their arms and give back the government buildings they've seized. for the most part, this hasn't happened. any hope of an eastern peace in eastern ukraine has been shattered with a shooting today. four people are reported dead after the incident at a pro-russian checkpoint outside the city of slaviance. let's go to the eastern city of dukrev. what is your take that the people on the ground are going
to do now that the foreign minister has said, you have to get out of these buildings and hand them over to the ukranian authorities? >> reporter: at this stage we're seeing absolutely no indication whatsoever that they have any intention of doing that. they point to the fact that the agreement, the rhetoric of the agreement said that illegal groups needed to leave public spaces, needed to leave those various buildings, and they don't consider themselves to be illegal. in fact, they consider the government in kiev to be illegal. all we're seeing on the ground here is they're continuing to fortify themselves, and they fully believe that no matter what, the russians are going to continue to support them. one of the protest leaders sarcastically thanking europe for waking up the russian bear. the situation we have with the violence overnight, that possibly could escalate tensions here even further. people understandably incredibly concerned, and it's a fairly tough job that is facing the
organization for security and cooperation in europe that is tasked with trying to convince these groups to surrender these buildings. they have around 100 monitors on the ground here trying to move around, meet with the various parties, restore a sense of order. but at this stage, it really seems as if those groups are not going to surrender the various buildings, and more and more areas saying that they are determined to hold a referendum about independence, fareed. >> thank you so much, arwa. stay warm. for the bigger picture on ukraine, let's go to the capital of ukraine and ask cnn's fred plectum. you heard what she said, they are not intending to get out of these buildings. will they send an army and take control of what is their country? >> reporter: fareed, you know, the ukranian government and the prime minister told me they
really had very low expectations for these geneva agreements to begin with. they said if those people in the east don't leave the government buildings, they will continue what they call their anti-terror operation in the eastern part of the country and move their anti-terror there. the question s do they have the capability for such a complex operation, and the view i'm getting here from inside ukraine, from defense experts and also people inside the military as well is that this army clearly does not have that. it has several problems. one of them is the general staff which in many ways have shown to be incompetent, not just with what happened in crimea but the operations going on in the east. you recall last week a convoy was sent to eastern towns and some of those armored personnel carries got taken away by separatists and were driven away to some eastern ukranian town, some of them even doing donuts with those trucks. the other problem they have is they simply do not have the
material, it doesn't have the gear for such an operation. a lot of tanks they have, but for the 1970s, the gear this army had, the best gear, was actually sold off to third countries who were trying to bolster their army services. so the big question is, what are they going to do and do they have the capabilities to do so? certainly if they try to relaunch this anti-terror operation, it's very much unclear whether or not they would even be able to clear those buildings. then, of course, you have the broader picture, the even bigger problem that you could have russian forces going across the border if they feel provoked. so at this point in time, the sense we're getting is that the ukranian government hopes that this geneva agreement is something that will stand, that would lead to something right now. however, there is no disguising the fact that that geneva agreement is in a lot of trouble, not only from those people inside the buildings in eastern ukraine but also, of course, internationally with the russians seemingly making new demands all the time even as the government in kiev says it's trying to de-escalate, by, for instance, calling a truce which
didn't do much. >> thank you so much. coming up next, did sanctions bring russia to the negotiating table, at least? i've got a great set of experts to answer that and much more. ee? a dry mouth can be a side effect of many medications but it can also lead to tooth decay and bad breath. that's why there's biotene. available as an oral rinse, toothpaste, spray or gel, biotene can provide soothing relief, and it helps keep your mouth healthy, too. remember, while your medication is doing you good, a dry mouth isn't. biotene -- for people who suffer from dry mouth.
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the conventional wisdom is that sanctions don't work. you wrote a terrific book about it many years ago. but i now look at the sanctions that the united states has used against iran and is beginning to use against russia. these are more targeted, smart sanctions. they really try to take advantage of the fact that the u.s. financial system is at the center of global commerce, and they try to freeze offending countries or companies out of that financial system. do you think that that's enough pain to exact a real price and put a real cost in place for the russians? >> well, you're exactly right, fareed. what's different about these sanctions is how targeted they are. and second of all, they take place against the backdrop of a much more integrated world. but the key to it all is whether the united states can get sufficient international, in this case, largely european support. that's what makes the iranian sanctions so powerful, and i would think the biggest question
now is what happens or doesn't happen between the united states and what donald rumsfeld might have called old europe, essentially germany, france and old britain. >> bob, when you are in moscow, what is your sense of what moscow's game is? is it a type of crimean style annexation, or are they trying to put pressure on the government and get the best deal they can? autonomy for the east, a pledge that ukraine will never join nato? what is the end goal here for putin? >> almost certainly i think it's the latter. that is, i think they're primarily concerned with producing a ukraine they can live with that protects russian influence within ukraine, and that does prevent it from moving toward the west. the issue of how much autonomy you give to the east is simply instrumental is simply i path to that broader based objective. that objective is no longer in hand, therefore, i think we're in for a long period of what i would call dangerous, suspended
animation. >> richard, one of the things that strikes me about this situation is that the prize here, if you win in this little struggle, you get ukraine. and, you know, the tag right now is $15 billion as a starter. should we be thinking about this somewhat differently and trying to get the russians as involved as we can, to put it bluntly, so we can split the bill? >> that opportunity may have existed in the past. my sense is now, fareed, it's probably too polarized. but you make a good point. we're focusing so much on what russia is doing. one of the dramatic or most critical factors here is going to be what ukraine does. and one of the reasons the russians are able to be as influential and to sow as much dysfunction as they have is simply because of the political and economic disarray that has been and continues to be ukraine.
sigh big part of western policy has got to be shoring up ukraine politically, economically, and in the news report you just ran, it also shows the military inadequacy. this is a nation state, if you will, of 45 million or so people, but it really isn't functioning on eight cylinders in any one of the critical dimensions of what it takes for a modern country to operate. >> bob, what is your sense of how this is going to work domestically in russia? of course, putin is wildly popular now because this is kind of a tough, nationalist thing to do, but do you think people worry about the long-term costs of integrating crimea, of perhaps having to deal with, as i say, if they win they have to deal with ukraine. how do you think -- is putin
thinking economically at all, or is this all just history and nationalism? >> i don't think they've begun to come to terms with it either at the top or in the media or among the population in general. the cost to go back to the earlier conversation on sanctions is already being felt, but not because of the sanctions. they're primarily visa freezes and freezing assets for people on a particular list. the sanctions that are being contemplated haven't been put in place, and yet the economy is already beginning to tank. the report for the first quarter was very close to negative growth. another quarter in russia will be in recession. the last report yesterday indicated that bond issuance by which they would finance a debt is down 74% over last year, and there are going to be costs down the road. since they can't finance their debt and they may be moving into recession, that will mean a cut in social benefits, a cut in aid to or support for education or health.
what's going to happen at that point, i think, is unpredictable. the putin administration leadership is going to make the argument, look, your grandparents made enormous sacrifices to deal with a lethal threat in the second world war. i know that you, the russian people, are capable of doing the same thing. and that's going to work for a period of time. but how long this lasts is uncertain. in answer to your question, though, they have not begun, even in the smallest way, to be coming to terms with that proposition. >> richard, we've got 30 seconds. do you think that the obama administration is pursuing this correctly, or very quickly, what would be your central advice to them? >> i would pursue it, fareed, with much more urgency and intensity. i would do something about american energy policy to begin the process of waning the europeans from dependence on russia. i would put much more diplomatic emphasis on ratcheting up the sanctions to do more for strengthening the rest of nato. i just don't sense the degree of urgency that this requires.
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♪ sleep train ♪ ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ now for our "what in the world" segment. this $32 million cable car has not been used since 2012. this is a federally funded extraterrestrial museum, also abandoned. and look at this multi-billion dollar railroad. an article in the "new york times" said it was supposed to help farmers from impoverished remote areas transport soybeans. construction began but the railroad will probably never be built. what if i told you these shattered big ticket projects are in the country that will host the world's biggest
sporting event in june. what in the world, right? i'm talking about brazil, of course, host of this year's fifa world cup and the only major economic power in south america. there is even speculation that bus and rail systems being built for the soccer tournament won't be completed until after the games are over. this is a big comedown for a country that was seen as an economic powerhouse, the b in the bric countries and even made a bid to become a permanent member of the u.n. security council. now, over the last five to seven years, brazil did experience a boom. it lifted some 40 million people out of poverty in the last decade. it kept unemployment rates at record lows. but as morgan stanley points out, the brazil boom was really just a side effect of the china boom. it was a time of cheap capital,
emerging markets were hot, and china was growing fast and sucking up brazilian raw materials and oil. brazil rode the commodity wave as china imported its soy, oil and other natural resources. by 2009, china had to eclipse the u.s. as a leader of brazilian goods. the following year brazil experimented a big gdp growth. china also experienced a downturn, seeing its growth rate dip below 8% in 2012 for the first time in a decade. if you feast on high commodity prices, you fast when they fall. most important, brazil wasted the good years, postponing reforms, lavishing subsidies on its people and convincing itself that it had found a magic growth
formula that required no pain and no discipline. that complacency now has a cost. standard & poor's downgraded brazil's credit rating in march. it is not quite in junk status territory, but s&p warned that it would make further cuts if brazil did not change its policies. brazil's public spending has been downright wasteful. according to one study, corruption across the country cost $53 billion in 2013 alone. to complicate matters, brazilians will head to the polls in october. in the face of slipping approval ratings, the president has threatened to rein in spending and national reforms. it may be enough to get her reelected, but will it be enough to save the brazilian economy? coming up next, one of the world's best business minds,
michael porter of harvard business school, takes me through a new look at how america compares with the rest of the world. i saw this red, blistery, rash and i felt this horrible pain on one side of my back. i had 16 magic shows to do. i didn't know how i was going to be able to do these shows with this kind of pain that i was in. i told my wife what i had. she went on the internet and said "i think you have shingles." i could feel the shock in my back and it was like "wow its got to get better than this or i'm in big trouble."
the u.s. has the highest gdp in the world. the rest of the world can't get enough of america's sneakers and songs and sodas and movies and iphones. eight of the ten richest people in the world are american. but what does all this mean for the average american? are his or her basic needs being fulfilled? how does the average american's quality of life compare with the rest of the world? the answers aren't pretty. america fares surprisingly poorly in the groundbreaking new social progress index recently released by a team led by michael porter. porter, of course, is professor at the harvard business school, a hard-core capitalist, a registered republican. he is said to be the most cited scholar and economic in business in the world. welcome. >> thank you. it's great to be here. >> you were shocked at what you learned about america. >> yeah, i think this was not
the picture of america that i think many of us americans have, that we are a social leader, that we've advanced the ball in terms of opportunity and the needs of our citizens. and it shows anything but that. >> if you look at the social progress index on the whole, what's striking is the top countries are new zealand, switzerland, iceland, smaller countries. but basically a lot of european countries in canada beat the united states. >> correct. >> the united states is 16. ireland is ahead of it, japan is ahead of it, britain is ahead of it, germany is ahead of it. what does that tell us? what does that measure? >> this effort tries to, really, for the first time ever take -- let's call it the social or community or quality of life dimensions of a society and capture those in a rigorous framework using the best data in the world which is the best objective measures of these various multiple things.
but, of course, social progress is a broad concept. >> and that's why you break it down into these subcategories. health and wellness. japan is number one, italy is number two, switzerland is number three. you have to go all the way to 70 to get to the united states. >> it's an area where the u.s., if you actually look objectively, we're just not delivering. we actually spend the most money on this of any country in the world, probably in all of recorded history in temperatures of our health care budget every year, but in terms of the actual outcomes, and that, by the way, the social progress index measures the outcomes you achieve, not how much you spent, not how much you care, not whether you have a big heart. >> mortality rates, life expectancy, obesity, child mortality. >> right. and it turns out that we're number 70 in the world. >> what i was struck by is you look at the countries that are around that number, it's iran, it's kuwait.
there are no european countries that come close. >> we're way below the europeans on that. >> health care, people understand we do badly, at least a lot of people understand it. here's one that i was struck by. access to information and communications. >> right. >> we think we are the most net worked, plugged-in society, and if you look at our top 5%, i suppose that's true. but again, if you look at the rankings, and i look at how you measured. this was all very rigorous, very quantitative. iceland is number one, norway is number two, sweden is number three. to get to the united states, we have to go to number 23 on access to networking and communications. does that surprise you and what does it tell you? >> it does surprise me. on some level we have great access to communication, but if you look at how that's penned very broadly to our population and, really, all our citizens, that's where we come up short. our mobile telephone subscriptions on that particular
sub-network, we're 83. even on press freedom, we are the land of the free, you know? but if you actually look at the nitty-gritty on the grassroots level, the international ranking systems show us to be 21st on that. >> on this overall category, jamaica scores higher than the united states. between jamaica and latvia. access to basic knowledge, another category that i was fascinated by. number one, japan, number two new zealand, number three, norway. cuba is just ahead of us and georgia is behind us. >> that gets to things like enrollment in primary school. most americans go to primary school, but the percentage that do is actually not that high relative to some of the other countries.
>> the dropout rates for secondary school are very high. >> very high. and so you start to see that -- i think we as americans don't necessarily see ourselves the way we really are. we have this sort of idealized view that we pioneered all this stuff. you know, the universal education and press free, and we did. but to keep up and to keep driving and to expand and access more and more people takes a very determined effort. and i think in this country, we haven't delivered in many respects. >> that's the great story, isn't it? because you're right, so many of these areas, access to education in the united states, is absolutely the pioneer in the 19th and early 20th centuries. but the great story seems to me the catch-up. >> everybody is caught up, and a lot of people have caught up and even passed us. i think, you know, hopefully americans can -- we can start to look at ourselves honestly here.
we can look at ourselves objectively. we can understand that there is a tremendous both social and economic interest in moving america forward, back closer to a leadership position on many of these areas. frankly, i think the reason we are such a leader economically is because many, many years ago, we made commitments to be leaders in all these areas. but now that's kind of frayed, and it's interesting that this message all over the world is -- has been strikingly received in the sense that people are very -- because it turns out that no matter who you are, even if you're sweden or new zealand that are on the top of our list, there are still red marks on your report card. >> michael porter, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. next on gps, a klan member kills three in an anti-semitic attack in kansas. is this 1941 or 2014? we'll look at why this persists
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cross, a leader in the ku klux klan, was said to have been a raging anti-semite. it is astounding to me that incidents like this still happen in 2014 in the united states. where does this virulent anti-semitism come from? i couldn't think of a better person to answer that question than simon schama, who wrote his book called "the story of the jews." the history of the jews is linked to anti-semitism. when does it begin? >> with the romans or possibly before that. well before christianity creates a problem for the jews because of the fact they inadvertently or otherwise kill a savior. the romans is an extraordinary story that you find in the great
german story of sefucious who has discovered virulen. he's a jew, the great story of the rebellion. he goes to live in the emperors in rome and discovers he's treated like a bad smell and wonders why. he discovers an extraordinary story of jews linked to waylaid jewish merchants fatten them up, and then summon jews from the well-known classical world to have a barbecue. so the madness these are somewhat demonic, murderous, inhumane people are before they have a problem with each other. >> and you talk about the antioch, which begins when something is wrong, you look to some group to blame, and invariably it's the jews.
>> it is particularly because the jews seem to have a loyalty with each other rather than the place they're at, even though the jews in syria and antioch in the fourth century are very much of their own place. and it's also the jews are thought to have a possession of a kind of secret interior knowledge that is unavailable to all the people, and that adds to this witch's brew. >> what do you make of the kind of modern anti-semitism that frasier glenn cross represents? >> it's a one of eccentric, mad thing. much more troubling in a way is the fact that 17,000 neo-nazis marched in paris at the end of january with a full arm salute shouting, "jews, get out of france."
that's a lot of people to be marching through the middle of paris. the problem now is exactly as you said, fareed. when things go wrong, or when you feel there is a world that's outside your control, the world of i.t., the world of the feds, whatever it's going to be, something that's beyond your control, somebody must be manipulating the strings, pulling the strings. somebody must be controlling the media. the notion that the jews are city types, money types, types who talk too much like i'm doing now, who think too much, and therefore are not part of this kind of panorama of pure village life, in a way. and, you know, the more complicated our life gets in the 21st century, these horrors notwithstanding the gas chambers of the crematoria, in a feverish imagining that someone else must be pulling the strings, this doesn't go away.
>> i agree with you that the american case seems to be one of craziness, but what is happening in europe and in eastern europe as well as in france is peculiar partly because there are so few jews left in europe, and europe is achieving something extraordinary, which is anti-semitism without jews. >> well, not in france. france has half a million. it's twice as many as in britain. however, the real issue, fareed, and you know this better than anybody else, is no one knows what europe means anymore, especially as a result of -- there's a sense if you're greek or if you're in southern europe generally that you're run by angela merkel or the northerners who don't care about you. there is a heavy tension that is purely european of the netherlands of drawing in once more and worrying about foreigners in your midst.
these extraordinary issues of actually where does your >> did writing this leave you more worried, more proud? what was the experience? >> it left my more proud. i think in many ways it left me wi awe struck with the richness and wonderful complexity. the things that really threw me over were the brilliance of medieval hebrew poetry, which i thought i knew and i didn't at all. the spectacular row of imagery of the mosaic floors which i thought jewish art was the smallest subject in the world, and it turns out it isn't. the beauty of the debates in enormous books, the digressiveness. and it made me realize there are jews who talk even more than i
do and much more sensibly. >> well, we weren't able to get to enough of it, but you've got a huge television show, the book is amazing. you're one of the world's great storytellers. simon schama, thanks for being on. >> thank you. up next, if you need to be convinced not to spy on the foreign government, the fbi has a new must-see spy thriller for you. when your favorite food starts a fight, fight back fast, with tums. heartburn relief that neutralizes acid on contact. and goes to work in seconds. ♪ tum, tum tum tum... tums!
early next month, president obama will host the leader of an african country who is home to the only long standing u.s. military base on that continent. it is for counter-terrorism efforts, so important that over the next 25 years, more than a billion dollars will be spent on improvements to this camp. it brings me to my question of the week. which african country is home to the only permanent european military base on that continent? is it algeria, djibouti, eritrea or somalia. stay tuned and we will tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is simon schama's "the story of the
jews." everything he writes is compulsively readable. schama focuses in on the lives of ordinary people as well. i rarely recommend a book that i haven't finished, but i am a third of the way through this one, and i can confidently say it is already worth recommending. now for the last look. there is an interesting new spy film that's just been released called "game of pawns." never heard of it? it is the dramatization of a harrowing true story, and it is not by some hollywood fat cat studios. rather, the fbi was behind the release of this 28-minute anti-espionage film. it's about an american student who is currently serving four years in prison for giving secrets to china. grab the popcorn. glen duffy starts out a wide-eyed college student who falls in love with shanghai. >> i loved everything about it. the language, the culture, the night life.
the people. >> looking for a visa to prolong his stay, he starts writing papers for the chinese government. >> as long as they pay. >> the stakes and the money increased until his handler suggests that he apply for a job at the cia. >> it wasn't like i had actually done anything wrong. there is a good chance the cia wouldn't even accept me. >> he soon finds himself sweating through a langley polygraph, quitting in the middle, and attempting to flee to china. >> i was actually going to pull it off. >> not so fast, glen. this is u.s. law enforcement. they were already on to you. it is certainly a cautionary tale. but is this generation of college students having already been fed a lifetime of reality shows and slickly produced entertainment going to sit through a half hour of badly acted scenes that critics point out were shot in d.c.'s chinatown instead of actually china?
>> life is like a game of chess, changing with each move. >> probably not. an idea for the feds. if you want to get through to this crowd, maybe next time try snapchat. the correct answer to our gps challenge question was "b," djibouti. situated near somalia the country is home to the camp. 4,500 military personnel are stationed at this camp and it shows the crucial role they will play in capturing al qaeda. they will host its president on may 5th. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. hello, everyone. i'm fredricka whitfield live in atlanta. here are the top stories we're following you for this hour. for the second day in a row, a suspected drone strike has
killed in yemen. today an air strike killed four suspected militants in southwest yemen. yesterday another killed ten al qaeda members in a neighboring province. the strike was targeting linked to a terror training camp. three civilians also killed in that attack. the underwater robot searching for flight 370 has now started its eighth mission. the bluefin-21 has been searching for signs of the plane, but so far nothing has been found. as many as 11 aircraft and 12 ships are also part of today's search, but they're also facing some rough weather as a cyclone moves into the area. and tomorrow's boston marathon will have 9,000 more runners and twice as many police officers as last year. it's also expected to draw the biggest number of spectators ever. what you won't see? backpacks, ruk sacks, or bulky
clothes. all have been banned following last year's bombing that killed three and wounded hundreds more. i'm fredricka whitfield. a new special popes and presidents begins right now. they are two of the most powerful offices on the planet. one elected in secret ballot by a handful of leaders in the sistine chapel. the head of 1.2 billion catholics seated on the throne of peter. barack obama will become the 44th president of the united states. the other put in power by an electorate of citizens in a gruelly nationwide election. all for the right to sit at the oval office at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. >> tonight is your answer. >> the pope and the president. for more than