tv Anderson Cooper 360 CNN November 4, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm PST
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election. i want to start things off with our map with our chief national correspondent john king. >> anderson, the final sunday and the maps and the math tell us we could we will have a split election. what do i mean by that in the president, a drag on his party when it comes to this map, the fight for control of the house and yet an asset when it comes and we'll get to the map in the minute in a fight for the control of the senate. our rankings here 207 seats now solid likely and leaning to the democrats. that leaves them just 11 shy if that hold up to majority. republicans in a weaker position as we head into the election. why? look at the tossups. 31 tossup in all. what jumps out at you, it's stunning. of the tossup races 30 of the 31 urnt cannily held current races held by republicans. on election night watch new york and new england. democrats think they can get at least a third of the way to the 23 seats they need right here, by flipping republican seats in
the northeast. then we'll move down and you have pennsylvania, virginia, down through the mid-atlantic. again, the democrats think four, five, maybe even more in pennsylvania. virginia, a huge test. do they get one in the northern virginia suburbs, or do they get a second or third and flipping the tossup seats? watch that on election night. another huge target of opportunity for the democrats they think out in the mid well. you see a lot of tossup states. we've already moved some republican seats towards the democrats. what do these districts in in common? most of them touch the suburbs, so if you take the regions i just showed you and you look at the numbers, you can see why democrats are can have den. in the northeast the president's numbers are in the tank, 67% in this npr marist poll disapprove of the president in the northeast. in the midwest not so bad but the president is the still underwater so democrats think it's an opportunity. let me add this one in just to show you. the districtsing touch the suburbs. in the american suburbs six in ten voters disapprove how the president is doing his job, so take the suburbs, take those
regions hand democrats think when you look at this map the president is a drag, and they can get to a house majority. that's what makes this so striking when you move to the fight for the control of the senate. this has always been advantage republican because ten democratic incumbents are running for re-election in states the president carried in 2016, some of them quite handley, so we have it at 49-:45. can the democrats get a senate majority? they can if they don't change anything else on the map they would have to sweep the tossups. they would have to come into this race and sweep every single one of these tossups on the board. is that possible? yes, it's possible. but the democrats are on defense when it comes to the senate map. imagine this scenario. the republicans would have to only win tennessee where marsha blackburn is ahead. if they only won tennessee, 50-50 the president would break the tie. yes, it's possible for the democrats, but this is a very tough hill to climb and there's a reason for that. let's take a look at the numbers here. if you look at the big senate
battleground states, statewide contests, not local house races, the president's numbers are actually going up, in arizona, nevada, florida and tennessee, this is cnn polling, these aren't great. the president's approval rating under 50 in all but tennessee but better than the national average. look, late in the campaign, the president's approval rating heading in the right direction for him, up. so you look at this map. the president is an asset and republicans are quite confident they can keep control of the senate and maybe even add a seat or two, but when you look at the house markings the president is a drag and the democrats believe come wednesday they will know that come january they will run the house. anderson. >> all right. john king, thanks very much. both president trump and former president obama had a full day of campaigning. president trump spoke in macon, georgia and chattanooga, tennessee and mr. obama took the stage in chicago and gary, indiana. he's been far more combative the past few days than in the past and here he is taking a poke at some of president trump's top advisers and their records. >> so now they have had two
years of total control in washington. what have they done with that power? no, no, no. it's not true they haven't done nothing. they have done something. they have promised they were going to take on corruption in washington. instead they have rocked up enough indictments to field a football team. the nobody in my administration got indicted. which by the way is not that high a bar. >> want to bring in even more political big guns with zero indictments between them, can i happily say, david chelian, david axelrod, jennifer granholm and van jones and rick santorum. david, what do you make, the president obama that you see
there, are you surprised to see him kind of out as i don't know as aggressively is the right word but energetically? >> well, you know, he -- he has been unpressure for a long time. a lot of people wanted him out there. his feeling was other democrats have to step up and that he sucks all the oxygen out of the tank when he tries to assume that mantle. b, he didn't want to be in a long term kind of back and forth with trump, but now that we're here i think that his belief is that voter mobilization is the key and that he can be helpful in some of these close races by spurring people to the polls. ive think that's why joe donnelly wanted him over in lake county in gary today to campaign, and so i -- i feel like he is answering the call and trying to balance, you know, prudence with his responsibilities as a party leader.
>> i mean, one of the things when he was president, i wanted him to go out there and be that big movement leader, and he said he didn't want to do that. he wanted to be in d.c. and govern, and a lot of, you know, hope and change like myself doing what trump was doing and he didn't think that's right. now to see trump out there doing that is frustrating for democrats. it's so good to see obama out there. in other words, the idea that when you're the president, you are no longer a movement leader. you are the commander in chief. you are head of state and you have a responsibility. that was obama's position to see trump say screw it. let's go out there and have a good time all the time i think is a very different conception of the presidency and i think it's good that we now at least get a chance to have parity on the rallies. >> there's no doubt that trump relishes these opportunities. i really think he enjoys the rallies more than he enjoys sitting behind that desk and making decisions. >> sure seems like it.
>> obama was the opposite, but now he doesn't have the responsibility to sit behind that desk, and i actually -- it looks to me like he's enjoying. >> did you hear what donald trump i think was it today or yesterday said that his rallies are bigger than obama's rallies. >> that's right. >> the crowds. >> but don't forget joe biden also. joe biden has been out there, too. >> tuesday, does it boil down to a referendum on the president? >> he insists that it does so i think we should take him at his word. >> to david's earlier point though, when you hear the president out there saying what have they done for the past two years, i can read you a laundry list that this administration has accomplished which they are not talking bork that's the point. that's the point that david made earlier, you know, when you shout from the roof tops about the care advance, you don't talk about all the other -- the laundry list of items that you've accomplished, you know. that opportunity gives the administration a chance to go out and talk about those things. >> i want to play something that president trump said just about that. he said this yesterday i think in florida.
>> some of the fake news was saying i was watching. why doesn't he talk about the economy? why does he talk about immigration and what's coming up with the caravan? why does he talk about the caravan when he's got maybe the best numbers on the economy in the history of our country? and we can talk about the economy, but the fact is we know how well we're doing with the economy and we have to solve problems. i'm looking to solve problems. >> keep talking about the economy, okay. >> i think technically he now has labeled you part of the fake news. >> i would say, it too, but here's what i would also say. i'm sitting here, and he's president of the united states, and the reality is this guy has had an uncanny ability to hear
what the american people wants him to talk about. >> right. >> or at least what his base. >> not just his base. he won. everybody talks about his base. he won, okay. let's get over the fact that he won. >> mid terms are threading a different kind of needle a little bit. >> but the point is can he get the people who turned out for him two years ago who maybe, you know, van and i were talking about this earlier, who probably don't vote in mid-term elections can, he get them out by saying that? and if he can, i guarantee you pollsters are not polling those folks when they don't think they are coming out. >> when you say threading a different kind of needle. >> to david's earlier point, i hate giving him all the credit. >> you're ruining my reputation. >> i just gave van credit. >> when you motivate that base, you're squeezing the balloon, you alienate those women that we saw in that poll, right, so you get those nokes out to what cost? that's the question we don't know right now and we'll know on tuesday. >> that's the difference between the house and the senate. >> because he's going to help i believe very much in the red
states in the senate with the caravan potentially, but he's going to hurt himself in those suburban districts in states like pennsylvania so you're right. he's robbing peter to pay paul. >> if he's right, we could see 55 republican senators and 235 democrats in the house. >> exactly. >> right, right. >> i also think what's going to be interesting to watch on tuesday is where this has a negative effect. remember, he won the presidency in basically five states, in florida, in pennsylvania, in michigan, is in ohio and ohio hand wisconsin. >> thank you very much. >> i think that he -- he could be setting himself up for a tough night in every single one of those states in governor's races, in senate races because they are purple states and this rhetoric works very well in red rural states but, you know, he
skinned by. >> he'll accept full responsibility for that. >> i suspect not at all. >> but to rick's point about his ability to defy sort of political history and trend is true. we have known -- if you look through history, modern history, political history, the correlation between the president's approval rating and how their party does in a mid-term, it is pretty -- it's not 1-1 but it's a cleary close correlation. i don't know if that's going to be true. this president's approval rating is below where any republican in their right mind would want it who is on the ballot this tuesday, and yet perhaps we won't see with this president that correlation as strong. >> but we should also point out that structurally he's got an advantage here. this is the worst senate map any party has ever had for 100 years and the house -- and the house because of redistricting is a tougher lift, so some of the historical models don't necessarily apply for those reasons. >> well, it's a horrible map because they control 23 of the
33 seats. that's because they have had two great election cycles prior to this. having experienced the first one i can tell you. >> it is a horrible map, and to your point anderson, i think you're right on the responsibility point. either trump will win the house or paul ryan will lose it. >> what do you think he was doing last week when he was telling paul ryan to be quiet about birth right citizenship? paul ryan has raised $70 million for house republicans. he's like you don't know anything about that. just go away. he was getting ready to effectively going to say you're going to lose and that's your problem, not mine. >> i can tell you in every race i've talked, to every candidate, i'm being told we're being outspent three and four to one. it's the democratic big bucks party. it's unbelievable. >> i've never seen anything like this before in all my years in politics. it was always assumed that
democrats would outspend democrats. that was a built-in advantage for republicans. i have campaigns saying to me we've got more money than we can spend and a lot of it is coming in in small donations on the internet, and this is going to revolutionize politics. >> a lot is coming from a handful of big money donors who are writing big, big checks. bloomberg being one of them. steyer. >> that's welcome to your world. >> let's take a quick break. much more to talk about including late developments in a study that appears to be without precedent involving allegations of misconduct by the office of one of the candidates who is also overseeing the vote. later, the my grant caravan, clearly an election issue. the question is to which voters? we'll take a look at that ad. foundation by l'oreal.
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secretary of state looking into what they say is a voter hack of the voter registration system. this is certainly raising questions among democrats and there's the timing, just two days before election day. there's the fact that the secretary's office provided no evidence and then there's this. the secretary of state, brian kemp, is also the republican candidate for governor, and he's locked in a very tight bitterly fought race with democrat stacey abrams. we invited mr. kemp or anyone from the campaign to come on the broadcast they declined. joining us now is the chairman of georgia's democratic party. so chairman porter, let me ask you point blank. has anyone in the democratic party of georgia attempted to hack in any way the state's or impacted the state's voter registration system. >> absolutely not. this is simply an attempt to detract from his own record. remember, this is a secretary of state that mistakenly released 6 million voters' social security numbers twice. what's unnerving is that he has used the secretary of state's office and its official
spokesperson on this made-up story. >> so has the fbi contacted your office? >> no. >> no. >> not at all. >> it's a made-up story. >> but the fbi -- they are investigating, aren't they? not that we're aware of because there's no hacking. there's no attempt of any hacking from the democratic party. this is another part of his attempt to suppress the vote, to make people scared of going to the polls on tuesday because the only way to fight abuse like this is to go to the polls and outvote him. beat him at the polls. that's what i'm asking theme do because this is absolutely outrageous. >> they would have been regarding a new hack and have you been heard any evidence on that? >> they have made this up. it was a made-up story.
no hack or attempt to hack by the democratic party. >> whether or not there is any truth to the accusations, do you -- i mean, you talked about potential damage this could have done to voters. do you think it could have the opposite impact and motivate some democrats to go to the polls? >> we certainly hope so, and that's what we've put out today. they have made this up. this is what we've got to beat. look at how you systematically tried to repress the vote, by not wanting to certify absentee ballots. the judges have told him make those provisional, have people qualify them as voters and systematically he's tried to take people off the rolls and not allowing people to have their ballots counted. this is the pattern of him running a shoddy office and being desperate at the last minute. >> if they have some evidence, are you -- would you call on them to come forward tomorrow or even tonight with it? >> we have, and we -- we've worked -- we were notified through the press, through the
press release and in again what is is unnerving from the secretary of state's official site, from the official spokesperson and they have yet to release any evidence of it and they never will because it never happened. >> appreciate your time. whether or not was going on in georgia is a legitimate investigation of potential dirty tricks, the larger question of election security obviously is a very real one and serious one and so is the threat and cnn's alexander marquardt has been looking into it. what are the main concerns right now, alexander, when it comes to election security? >> anderson they are wide and varied, and now we have federal and state officials who are bracing for a whole number of different scenarios. now, of course, this the first election since 2016, the immediate fear is hacking. we have heard repeatedly from the department of homeland security that as they monitor and malign activity particularly from russia that we're not seeing nearly as many levels as
we did in 2016 and the first fear that we're going to be hacking into the voting infrastructure, the voting machines and registration roles and the things that they have used to report those roles, and then into non-critical infrastructure, like a power grid, taking down street lies and phone lights, all of this amplified by social media and speaking of amplification on social media, there's potential for disinformation campaigns, efforts to suppress the vote, tweets and facebook posts that give wrong information about voting, accusations of rigging and once that hits social media, that's overly amplified. anderson something is going to go wrong. officials do expect something to go wrong. the question is how big is it, how much is it amplified and then they will gallon from there, and the real concern for officials is that they are not be an erosion in voter confidence in the electoral system. >> what about the paper trail. are there still things that don't have a print version of votes? >> a surprising number. >> so all told there are 14
states that either entirely don't have any sort of paper trail and -- and then nine more, so 14 all together and five that don't have any paper trail and nine that only have a partial paper trail and the paper trail is the easiest way to audit an election after a vote in case something went wrong so those five states that don't have any sort of paper trail, i think very a map, are louisiana, georgia, south carolina, new jersey and delaware. now the states that only partially have a paper trail are pennsylvania, texas, kansas, florida, tennessee, arkansas, indiana, kentucky and mississippi. now the states, of course, anderson, do control the elections. they are very proud of that fact, but secretary nielsen of dhs have called for all 50 states by 2020 to have a verifiable paper trail. >> a democrat hasn't won a statewide election in texas in nearly 25 years. beto o'rourke is certainly hoping to change that. we'll show you how he and ted cruz are spending last days of the campaign.
senate races, ted cruz's democratic challenger, still pushing forward in the state of texas. ed lavandera reports. >> reporter: texas democrats call it beto mania and in the last days of this senate race beto o'rourke rallies are bringing rock star pandemonium. beto o'rourke says he's confident he's changed the political landscape of texas with a highly organized get out the vote campaign to bring out new voters and o'rourke throws in some spanish saltiness to motivate the faithful. >> if you really want to win this, given what's at stake, given what's on the line and given the judgment of the people of the future, our kids, our grandkids, our conscience, let's make sure that when they look
back on us they do so with pride and if we don't force us to ask themselves who were they in 2018. >> god bless texas. >> reporter: republican senator ted cruz has spent the last week of the campaign barnstorming the state in the tough as texas election bus. >> the economy in texas is booming. ted cruz is closing out the campaign hitting on themes of jobs, freedom and security and still embracing what he calls the victories of the president trump era and reminding voters that we've got a good thing going. >> when the democrats come and say you don't need your freedom or free speech and you don't need your religious liberty, you don't need your second amendment, who the hell are they to try to take away our freedoms? >> reporter: cruz campaign is still trying to hammer home the idea that beto o'rourke is too radical and liberal. even senator cruz's mother
helped her son make the case during a campaign event this weekend. >> there's such a stark contrast between my son and the other candidate whose name i will not mention. one is a socialist. the other is for free enterprise. one is for open borders. the other is for the wall and secure borders. >> ted cruz and his supporters described you as radical, a socialist. how do you combat that in your final closing message here with voters who still might be on the fence about which way to vote? >> we can get into the name-calling and smallness and petty stuff and partisanship. >> reporter: o'rourke picks up the answer in front of a crowd waiting for him in austin. >> the pettiness and the meanness and the smallness that defines so much what have happens in the highest offices of public trust, to that we're going to bring our courage, our
confidence, our strength. this big, bold, beautiful heart that could only come from texas. >> reporter: at this weekend rally in a small victoria, texas hotel ballroom cruz supporters showed up wearing red gloves, their symbol that a red rave in texas will end beto mania on election day. >> that is texas. that's who we are. when liberty is threadient we will rise to defend it. we will rise to defend the constitution and we will rise to defend the united states of america! thank you and god bless! >> ed lavandera joins us from san antonio. what does each candidate have planned in the last couple of days before the election? >> reporter: well, it's really a focus on those areas in the part of the state where they believe that they can really generate the most voter turnout so you're going to see beto o'rourke here on the last day campaigning in houston tomorrow and in dallas before flying home and ending
his 21-month campaign back in his hometown of el paso. ted cruz is focused on the suburbs around his hometown of houston so that's where you'll see him on the last day of campaigning. anderson, it's really hard to overstate, impossible to overstate, but early voter turnout in this state has been through the roof and many people on both sides scrambling to figure out what it's all going to mean on election day. anderson. >> ed lavandera, and in the waning days the president's mid-term argument has largely rested on the caravan of my grants which he calls an invasion. or people trying to go seek as lull. the president said at a real, between justice kavanaugh and the caravan you guys are energized. joining me now is leon rodriguez and former sheriff paul babieu. leon, let me start with you. the president has framed this as
an invasion. do you see this as that? >> no, it's not an invasion or by any definition. what it is is a very clear expression of a humanitarian crisis that has been going on for a long time and there's nothing that this president has been able to do to scare off people who are basically running away from countries that have the highest homicide rates on the planet. they have completely broken down law enforcement institutions. those are the elements of a humanitarian crisis. that's what these folks are running for, and that's the kind of response that this requires, not this sort of aggressive military law enforcement response. >> paul, i mean, do you see this ending of the u.s. active duty as the appropriate move? >> no, i -- i recommended from the start. i served as a commanding officer in yuma for a year and a half with the national guard. i believe that a military presence at our sovereign border is called for, not in a law
enforcement capacity but as support role as we did with our heroes in the bothered control to say absolutely, you're not coming through. you talk about an invasion and the reason why not just president trump but half of america believes that this has been an invasion, not just with three or four care advance coming from honduras or el salvador, but we're talking about 22 million illegals that have come into our country. that's huge, and so when we put this in the context of a humanitarian wave and economic, now this new word, economic my grants that are coming in here, calling for refugee, asylum status, if we think we're going to allow three or four care advance to come in and that happens, how many more care advance do you think are going to come? it's not going to stop. >> leon, the ways that people can actually get asylum and sort
of the criteria has actually been toughened by this administration and victims of domestic violence or gang violence. those are no longer criteria for getting asylum into this country. to paul's point about, you know, if these people are allowed in, then it's just going to encourage more people coming in care advance >> you know, the fact is that the united states has always stood as a beacon for refugees and asylees. there's long-standing humanitarian laws who says individuals who are subject to crime in circumstances where their government is unable or unwilling to protect them which is basically the case going on in this country we've always stood as a beacon to people like this. that's always been the kind of country we've been. our attorney general, on the other hand, seems hell bent on closing off every possible avenue of humanitarian relief. he's reaching down for every
single immigration court decision that he can to really close off those options of lawful relief. people are trying to follow the law and claim usa welcome in a lawful manner and our government is closing off every option for those folks. >> paul, the president has talked about -- >> yeah. >> the president has talked about cutting aid or stopping aid to countries like el salvador, guatemala if they can't control people from leaving and heading north. i've talked to a lot of people who are involved in immigration issues on the front line who have said actually the exact opposite needs to happen. it would more cost effect i have to try to prevent people from leaving by developing programs that encourage people to stay and make, you know, help keep them safe and have opportunities in the communities in the countries of their origin. >> i would agree with what you've said. i've said that on your program before. i think a far more humanitarian effort and approach for the united states to take is help those countries out. fight the violence, fight the
gang activities and the drugs that is creating this situation, but with due respect leon didn't answer your question because, yes, we are a beacon of hope and we are a land and a proud history of immigrants. yet there's 45 plus million citizens in central americans and 125 million in mexico. many of these people can make the very same argument so what's -- what's the limit? and -- and we don't even have our own business together here in the united states for a lot of people that we say and profess that we take care of, our senior citizens, our veterans. you look at baltimore and chicago and the violence, the crime, the gangs, the heroin that's in these black neighborhoods and the crime rates are higher than some of these places in central america. >> leon, how do you respond to that? >> let me respond. first of all, let's point out something that the sheriff and i absolutely agree on, and that is we do need to help the central
american problems overcome the problems of civil disorder and make it possible for their populations to not have to pick up and run to the united states. that is not where they are now, and as long as that's the position they are in, people are going to keep trying to go elsewhere because if you're in a position where your child is certain to become a gang member or to be recruited on pain of possible death to join a gang, or if you have a daughter who may be subject to sexual assault by gang members, then will you do what you need to do to protect your children. now, my response on your own point is it's simply to follow what has been the long standards -- long held standards of asylum and refugee law that this administration seems hell bent on narrowing to the greatest extent possible. and reducing all the avenues of humanitarian admission that have always existed in this country, reducing them to the greatest extent possible. >> we've got to the wrap it
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the final push is on for what is predicted to be an extremely tight senate race in arizona as well as a critical house race in california. pm a look at what's in stake in both states and beyond. >> reporter: only hours left in the battle for southern california's 45th district. >> are you ready for a representative who fights for you? >> yeah! >> reporter: democratic challenger katie porter is rallying her troops. >> senator kamala harris. >> reporter: with senatorial star power in a u.s. house race too close to call. >> we need our strongest soldiers on the field. >> reporter: with just one last weekend, volunteers are grabbing clipboards, pounding the pavement, hitting houses. like democratic volunteer jennifer koe and her 7-year-old
sun quincy. >> do you feel that this last push by you is going to make a difference? >> i mean, i'm going do what i can, you know. i don't want to have any regrets. i don't want to seat election go the other way and see the other candidate win and think that i could have done a little bit of something this weekend to make that difference. >> to all your friends, thanks a lot. >> reporter: republican congresswoman mimi walters is not just on defense but offense to save her job and keep this district red. >> thank you. >> it's a fast and furious fight to try to convince the last holdouts? >> you have to work really hard for every single vote. every vote counts, and so what we're doing is we're making contact with every single voter and making sure that those people who support me turn out to the polls. >> i volunteered at the congressional leadership fund. >> reporter: republican volunteers arrive early. >> the number of people we're looking at here is pretty surprising given that it's 10:00 a.m. on a saturday. >> 10:00 a.m. on a saturday. >> and you have young people.
>> yeah, yeah. there's a lot of enthusiasm and we've seen that in our offices across the country, and that's what's leading to these 30 million voter contacts in an election cycle. >> reporter: in this last weekend get out the vote means get to the people, especially in tossup races. arizona senate candidate martha mcsally. >> get your card here. >> reporter: is serving her closing message with pancakes. shy's locked in a tight race with democrat accusersen synema, one of the close of the battles in the senate. >> this is a very close election. >> reporter: both parties are sending out their heavy hitters, criss-crossing the country. the president hit georgia for republican gubernatorial candidate brian kemp. >> there's got to be consequences when people don't tell the truth? >> reporter: in indiana, former president obama campaigned about democrat joe donnelly, a marathon mid-term season, finishing with one final sprint. >> there's so many races that are too close to call.
what is it going to take to push it over the finish line? >> people getting out to vote. this election cycle what, i'm experiencing is that people realize that they actually have to vote if they want to influence the outcome. >> joining us now from arizona, it's not just the political parties obviously organizing you're in a progressive grass roots phone bank. who are they targeting? >> they are targeting independents, and independents in arizona are critical because a third of registered voters in this state are independents. if you take a look at this room, we're actually in a private house, anderson, and all of these people are phone banking. over here this table has a number of registered independents that they are calling one by one. they are trying to reach them, trying to encourage them to get out and vote. over here they are actually texting people, combination of texting and calling, trying to make those individual connections. they are hoping to reach a thousand people just in this phone banking session tonight and this lady over here, gail,
she hits 200 every single time that she's here. 200 people, that is, and they have been doing this anderson not just tonight, not just in this last week. they have been doing this since august, so will it be effective? they believe so. it's not just here in this room, but there are some 40 indivisible groups like this just in the state of arizona alone. anderson? >> fascinating. thanks. back now with our gallant team of election experts. you know, it is fascinating just the mechanics now of, you know, they talk about individual contacts. each campaign tries to have multiple contacts with each voter. they are knocking on doors and then following up on text and phones. >> and that group indivisible did not exist when trump was elect the, and it's now one of the biggest groups in the country. we're living in an era where groups -- where people who were sitting back, thought it would be easy for hillary clinton and didn't do anything, there's such heartburn and regret about 2016.
you have black voters matter. they are out there and have come up with relational organizing. it's not that you walk down a street and knock on a door that you've never seen before. you've got cousins and ex-roommates and they are figuring out a way to reach those people. there's an interpersonal relationship happening on the ground. it's more effect fife it's somebody that you know so they are figuring out how to combine the high tech with the high to you. a lot of stuff is happening out there. >> this is sort what have emerged from the obama campaigns was the merger of the new technology and old shoe leather but turbocharged because you make connections between people who know each other, and can you identify voters more readily who are more likely to respond to your appeals, so can i just say one thing. whatever happens, the fact that there is all this activity and people feel invested in this election and we see this record
early vote and we see this projections of maybe the largest mid-term turnout in 50 years, that's got to be good, but whatever is driving people, it's better when people are participating than when they are not. >> yeah, and people certainly engage. i think all of these voter, you know, turnout models and being on the they really want to change the demographics. change the kind of people who turn out. because that's what matters. voter context that you're talking about. the question is like texas, the democratic party doesn't really have much of an infrastructure. so i think these third party groups are going to be important. but can they cover texas? >> i was just going to say. at some point, voters in these districts have to start tuning out because they have gotten too many contacts. there's a point you get oversaturate.
ration. there's the point where you're running too hard, pushing too much and people just turn it off. they don't pay attention. >> i think the democrats are sort of scared in a way. they are excited because they think there's a possibility of winning the house and some kind of blue wave. then they retreated to a corner to say what if this doesn't happen? >> did you see nancy pelosi? she said we're going to win. >> exactly. they are worried about it because the biggest hope, i think, is this isn't just a wave. that's it's a realignment. it's a realignment election, which matters at every level, redistricting. >> why should anyone believe the polls? >> you shouldn't. >> we were just talking about arizona. most of the polls i have seen they were ahead in that race. if you look at the early vote, it doesn't show that. it shows the republicans are actually doing very well in
arizona with the early voting. >> part of that is the governor, who is a rock star. mcsally is going to benefit. >> unlike florida. >> she's the difference in maintaining control, they are going to get a hug because he's done a great job down there. if you look at arizona right now, what i'm being told is most of the republican votes are coming at every election and they just haven't et voted yet. >> to david's point about turnout is critical. a midterm election year is you see a huge drop off of voters and quite frankly a huge drop off of democratic voters. elect trats are older, whiter, more reliable voters than just presidential years. what we're seeing in some of the early vote that's so fascinating and may get to the 50-year record is you're seeing early
vote participation in some states at presidential levels from 2016 or above. now we'll see if the election day vote matches. nobody anticipate this is to look like a presidential election, but this is going to look more like a presidential election than a traditional midterm election. >> what they are trying to do is get voters like millennials who don't vote much. so in texas, we're seeing a 500% increase in early votes among millennials. it was a low base to start with, but they are seeing a surge. >> 500 are coming out. >> hopefully more than that. you see that's what they are trying to get these young people to see. but it's true. a surge with women, but with independents. the independents -- >> it's a problem for democrats. >> it's more than it was last time around. so you got to continue to build.
my point is this realignment, just finish the sentence and i'll turn it right over to you. he's always trying to steal -- just kidding. you will agree that the realign ment that is happening right now has to be a bit of a threat to republicans if democrats are able to get -- if democrats are successful in getting these voters out who are not normally regular voters in midterms. >> the realignment has take b place because of donald trump. that's the bigger realignment. we saw it in 2016. the question is will it hold in 2018. the fact that blue collar men, the working people in this country, blue collar folks, they are seeing wages going up who are coming back into the workforce. we're seeing manufacturing, all these things, the trade war, trump fighting on trade, i understand that doesn't get the headlines. but for a person who has been on
the margins who doesn't think either party cared about them, those are issues that matter because you're feeding your family. that's the realignment that will happen. i wish the president would talk about it more, but he doesn't. >> the realignment election, the house comes in younger, more diverse, what does that do for the politics and governing and the party leadership? are they going to cut deals with the president or go and impeach the president. >> you're saying they will help democrats win the house and that's going to be a problem. but my guess is most democrats will say that's a high class problem i'd like to have. >> it's going to be a blood bath. >> we have to wrap it up hoar. thank you all on the panel. really appreciate it. our special election program will continue shortly. be right back. this is not a bed. it's a revolution in sleep. the new sleep number 360 smart beds are on sale now
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hello, everyone, i'm chris cuomo. a verdict is coming in 48 hours. just two days. we're going to know whether or not trumpism is truly a mass movement. the president is banking that a special sauce of fear and loathing of migrants will bring out folks across the country. if the kras seek up house seats, the trump base is going to be seen as critics suggest. a minority. it's more about rallies than real impact. the magic number is 23. that's the number of seats that the democrats need in the house. it's only two in the senate, but it's more likely that democrats lose than gain ground, we need some practice on these words. so the senate, we'll break down the races that matter