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tv   Anderson Cooper 360  CNN  November 4, 2018 9:00pm-10:00pm PST

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welcome back. by this time tuesday night we could be looking at a very different political landscape. vote ers will have spoken perhaps to give president trump some real opposition in the house by flipping, well, the
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house or perhaps both chambers of congress, unlikely in the senate, perhaps to embolden him by leaving congress, all of it in republican hands. either outcome could have profound consequence, is why all eyes including ours tonight are on election. want to start off with the map with our chief correspondent john king. >> anderson, the final sunday and the maps and the math tell us we could well have a split election. what do i mean by that? the president, a drag on his party when it comes to this map, the fight for control of the house. yet an asset to republicans when it comes -- we'll get to the map in a minute -- the fight for control of the senate. let's start with the house. our rankings here, 207 seats solid likely and leaning to the democrats. that leaves them 11 shy if that holds up of a majority. republicans in a weaker position as we head into the election. why? the toss ups. it is stunning. of the toss up races, 30 of the 31 currently held by republicans. a giant basket of opportunity for the democrats as they try to get those final seats they need
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to get to a majority. here's why they're confident. on election night, watch new york, new england, the northeast first come in. democrats think they can get at least a third of the way to the 23 seats they need right here. by flipping republican seats in the northeast. then we'll move down and you have pennsylvania, virginia, down through the mid-atlantic, again, the democrats think four, five, maybe even more just in pennsylvania. virginia will be a huge test. do they get just one in the northern virginia suburbs or do they get a second or a third by flipping these toss-up seats? watch that on election night. another huge target of opportunity for the democrats, they think out in the midwest. you see a lot of toss-up states. we've moved some seats to the democrats. most of them touch the suburbs. if you take the regions i just showed you and you look at the numbers, you see why democrats are confident. in the northeast, the president's numbers are in the tank. 67% in this npr marist poll disapprove of the president in the northeast. in the midwest not so bad.
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still under water. democrats think it is an opportunity. let me add this to show you. the districts that touch the suburbs. in the american suburbs, 6 in 10 voters disapprove of how the president is doing his job. so, take the suburbs, take those regions and democrats think when you look at this map, the president is a drag and they can get to a house majority. that's what makes this so striking. when you move to the fight for control of the senate, this has always been advantage republican because ten democratic incumbents are running for reelection in states the president carried in 2016. some of them quite handily. so we have did at 49/45. can the democrats get a senate majority? they can. if they don't change anything else on this map, they would have to sweep the toss-ups. the democrats would have to come into this race and sweep every single one of these toss-ups on the board. is that possible? yes, it's possible. but the democrats are on defense when it comes to the senate map. imagine this scenario. the republicans would have to only win tennessee where marsha
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blackburn is ahead in the polls. if they only won tennessee in the toss-ups, 50/50. the vice-president would break the tie. yes, it's possible for the democrats, but this is a very tough hill to climb. and there is a reason for that. let's take a look at the numbers here. if you look at the big senate battle ground states, statewide contests, not local house races, the president's numbers are actually going up. in arizona, nevada, florida, tennessee. these aren't great. the approval rating under 50. in tennessee not great, but better than the national average. look, late in the campaign, the president's approval rating heading in the right direction for him, up. so you look at this map, the president is an asset. republicans are quite confident they can take, keep, control of the senate maybe add a seat or two. if you look at the house map, the president is a drag and the democrats believe come wednesday they know come january they will run the house. anderson? >> john king, thanks very much. both president trump and former president obama had a full day of campaigning. president trump spoke in macon, georgia, and chattanooga, tennessee. mr. obama took the stage in
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chicago, gary, indiana. as you know he's been far more combative the fast few days than in the past. taking a poke at former trump advisors and their records. >> so now they've had two years of total control in washington. what have they done with that power? no, no, no, it's not true they haven't done nothing. they've done something. they promised they were going to take on corruption in washington. instead, they've racked up enough indictments to field a football team. [ cheers and applause ] >> nobody in my administration got indicted. [ cheers and applause ] which, by the way, is not that high a bar. i mean -- >> want to bring in even more political big guns with zero indictments between them, i can happily say. gloria borger, van jones,
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jennifer grant -- i almost got a speeding ticket once. >> well done. >> the police officer was very nice. david, what do you make of -- the president obama you see there, are you surprised to see him kind of out, i don't know if aggressively is the right word, but enter jergetically? >> his feeling was other democrats have to step up. he sucks all the oxygen out of the tank when he tries to assume that mantle. b, that he didn't want to be in a long-term kind of back and forth with trump. but now that we're here, his belief is that voter mobilization is the key, and that he can be helpful in some of these close races by spurring people to the polls. i think that's why joe donley wanted him over in lake county, in gary today to campaign.
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and so i feel like he is answering the call and trying to balance prudence with his responsibilities as a party leader. >> one of the things that -- when he was president, i wanted him to go out there and be that big movement leader. and he said he didn't want to do that. he wanted to be in d.c. and govern. a lot of hope and change who wanted him out there doing what trump is doing he didn't think that was right. now to see trump out there doing it is frustrating for democrats. it's good to see obama out there. when you're the president, you are no longer a movement leader, you are the commander in chief. you are head of state and you have a responsibility. that was obama's position despite pressure from us. to see trump say screw it let's go out there and have a good time all the time is a different conception of the presidency. and i think it is good that we now at least get a chance to have that parity on the rallies. >> i think there is no doubt
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that trump relishes these opportunities. >> he's a movement leader. >> i think he enjoys the rallies more than he enjoys sitting behind that desk and making decisions. >> sure seems like it. >> obama was the opposite. but now he doesn't have the responsibility to sit behind that desk, and i actually -- looks to me like he's enjoying -- >> did you hear what donald trump, was it today or yesterday, said that his rallies are bigger than obama's rallies. >> right. >> but don't forget joe biden also. >> does tuesday boil down to a referendum on the president? >> he insists that it does, so we should take him at his word. >> to hear david's point, what have they done the past two years, i can read you a laundry list of things they have accomplished. they're not talking about it. that's the point david made earlier. when you shout from the rooftops about the caravan, you don't talk about all the other -- the
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laundry list of items that you've accomplished. i think that opportunity gives this administration a chance to go out and talk about those things. >> i want to play something president trump said about that. he said this yesterday, i think, in florida. >> some of the fake news was saying i was watching, why doesn't he talk about the economy? why does he talk about immigration? and what's coming up with the caravan, why does he talk about the caravan when he's got maybe the best numbers on the economy in the history of our country? [ cheers and applause ] and we can talk about the economy, but the fact is we know how well we're doing with the economy, and we have to solve problems. i'm looking to solve problems. >> i say keep talking about the economy. >> i think technically he now has labeled you part of the fake news. >> i would say it, too, but
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here's what i'd also say. i'm sitting here and he's president of the united states. and the reality is this guy has had an uncanny ability to hear what the american public wants him to talk about. >> or at least we hear what his base wants. >> not just his base he won. everybody talks about his base. he won. let let's get over the fact, he won. the point is can he get the people who turned out for him two years ago, who maybe -- van and i were talking about this earlier -- who probably don't vote in midterm elections, can he get them out by saying that? and if he can, i can guarantee you, posters are not poling those folks. i don't think they're coming out. >> when you say threading a different kind of needle -- >> to david's point earlier, i hate giving him all this credit. >> you're ruining my reputation. >> i just gave van credit. when you motivate that base, you're squeezing the balloon.
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you alienate those women we saw in that poll. you get those folks out, to what cost? that's the question we don't know right now. we'll know tuesday. >> that's the difference between the house and the senate. he's going to help, i believe, very much the red states in the senate with the caravan potentially, but he's going to hurt himself in those suburban districts in states like pennsylvania. and so you're right, he's robbing peter to pay -- >> if he's right, we could see 55 republican senators and 235 democrats in the house. >> exactly. >> right. i also think what is going to be interesting to watch on tuesday is where this has a negative effect because, remember, he won the presidency in basically five states, in florida, in pennsylvania, in michigan. >> thank you very much. >> i think he could be setting himself up for a tough night in every single one of those
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states, in governor's races, in senate races because they are purple states, and this rhetoric works very well in red rural states. but he skinned by. >> he'll accept full responsibility for that. >> to rick's point about his ability to defy sort of political history and trend is true. we have known, if you look through history, modern history, political history, the correlation between the president's approval rating and how their party does in the midterm, it is pretty -- it's not one to one, but it's a really close correlation. i don't know if that's going to be true. this president's approval rating is where any republican in their right mind would want it who is on the ballot this tuesday, and yet perhaps we won't see with this president that correlation as strong -- >> but we also should point out that structurally he's got an advantage here. this is the worst senate any party has ever had for 100
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years, and the house -- the house, because of redistricting, is a tougher lift. so some of the historical models don't necessarily apply for those reasons. >> it's a horrible map because they control 23 of the 33 seats. it's because they had two great election cycles prior to this. having experienced the first -- >> whatever. it is a horrible map. to your point, anderson, i think you're right on the responsibility point. either trump will win the house or paul ryan will lose it. >> right. >> what do you think he was doing last week when he was telling paul ryan to be quiet about birthright citizenship? paul ryan raised $70 million for house republicans. you don't know anything about that, just go away. he was getting ready to effectively say, you're going to lose and that's your problem, not mine. >> you mentioned money. i can tell you in every race i've talked to and every candidate, i'm being told, we're being outspent 3 and 4 to 1.
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the democratic big bucks -- >> welcome to my world. >> unbelievable. >> i've never seen anything like this before in all my years in politics. it was always assumed that republicans would outspend democrats, and that was a built-in advantage to republicans. what's happened this year is phenomenal. i have candidate campaign sending me, we've got more money than we can spend, and a lot of it is coming in small donations on the internet. and this is going to revolutionize politics. >> a lot of it is coming from a handful of big money donors who are writing big, big checks. >> i know -- >> steyer, bloomberg. >> well, that's welcome to your world. >> all right. let's take a quick break. much more to talk about including late developments in a story that appears to be without precedent involving allegations of election misconduct by the office of one of the candidates who is also overseeing the vote. later, david urban mentioned the migrant caravan an issue. to which voters? we'll look at that end.
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it's quite a story still unfolding as we speak. office of georgia secretary of state launching a probe of the democratic party as what it described as an attempted hack of the voter registration system. if true, raising suspicions among democrats, questions among others, there is the timing, just two days before election day, there is the fact the secretary's office provided no evidence and then there is this. the secretary of state brian kemp is also the republican candidate for governor, and he's locked in a very tight bitterly fought race with democrat stacey abrams. we invited mr. kemp or anyone from the campaign to come on the broadcast, they decline. chairman porter is from the democratic party. has anyone from the democratic party from georgia attempted to hack the state's voter registration system? >> absolutely not. this is simply an attempt to distract from his own record.
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remember, this is the secretary of state that mistakenly released 6 million voter social security numbers twice. us wh what's unnerving is he has used the secretary of state's office and official spokesperson on this made-up story. >> has the fbi contacted your office or -- >> no. >> no? >> not at all. it's a made-up story. >> but the fbi, they are investigating, aren't they? >> not that we are aware of because there was no hacking. there was no attempt of any hacking from the democratic party. this is another part of his attempt to suppress the vote, to make people scared of going to the polls on tuesday because the only way to fight the abuse like this is to go to the polls and outvote him, beat him at the polls. that's what i'm asking people to do, because this is absolutely outrageous what he's -- >> the kemp campaign, they have not publicly disclosed any details regarding this alleged
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hack. have you been given any specific information about what they are saying? the fbi had no comment, public comment on it. >> they have made this up. it is a made-up story. there was no hack or attempt to hack by the democratic party. >> whether or not there is any truth to the accusations, i mean, you talk about potential damage this could have done to voters. do you think it could have the opposite impact and motivate voters to go to the polls? >> we hope so. we put out a date. this is how he systematically tried to repress the vote, by not wanting to certify absentee ballots. the judges have told him, make those provisional. have people qualify them as voters and systematically he's tried to take people off the rolz, not allowed people to have their absentee ballots counted. this is another of the pattern of him running a pretty shoddy
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office and being desperate at the last minute. >> if they have some evidence, would you call on them to come forward tomorrow or even tonight with it? >> we have, and we have worked with the press. we were notified through the press, through the press release, which is again, unnerving, from the secretary of state's official site, from their official spokesperson. and they have yet to release any evidence of it and they never will because it never happened. >> i appreciate your time. whether or not what is going on in georgia is a legitimate investigation of potential dirty tricks or is itself a dirty trick, the election security is a serious one so is the threat. cnn's alexander marquart looked into it and joins us now. what are the main concerns, alexander, when it comes to election security? >> reporter: anderson, they are wide and they are varied. we have federal and state officials bracing for a whole number of different scenarios. this being the first election since 2016, the immediate fear
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is hacking. we have heard repeatedly from the department of homeland security that as they monitor malign activity, particularly from russia, they are not nearly seeing the same level of malign activity in 2018 as they did in 2016. the first fear is hacking into the voting infrastructure. the voting machines, registration rolls, the media to report those votes. then hacking into a power grid, taking down street lights, phone lines, all of this amplified by social media. speaking of amplification of social media, the potential for disinformation campaigns, efforts to suppress the vote, tweets and facebook posts that give wrong information about voting, accusations of rigging. once that hits the social media, that is overly amplified. anderson, something is going to go wrong. officials do expect something to go wrong. the question is how big is it? how much is it amplified? and then they will go from there. and the real concern for
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officials is that there not be an erosion in voter confidence in the electoral system. >> what about i a paper trail, are there states that don't have a print version of votes? >> a surprising number. all told, there are 14 states that either entirely don't have any sort of paper trail and then nine more. so 14 altogether, five that don't have any paper trail, nine that only have a paper trail. anderson, the paper trail is the easiest way to audit an election after a vote in case something went wrong. those five states that don't have a paper trail, are louisiana, georgia, south carolina, new jersey and delaware. the states that only partially have a paper trail are pennsylvania, texas, kansas, arkansas, indiana, kentucky and mississippi. now, the states, of course, anderson, do control the elections. they are very proud of that fact. but secretary kirsten nielsen
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has called for all to have verifiable. >> appreciate it. thank you. a democrat hasn't won a statewide election in texas nearly 25 years. beto o'rourke is hoping to change that. we'll tell you how he and ted cruz are spending the last days of the campaign next. i know you want to leave me for schwab, but before you do that, you should meet our newest team member, tecky. i'm tecky. i can do it all. go ahead, ask it a question. tecky, can you offer low costs and award-winning wealth management with a satisfaction guarantee, like schwab? sorry. tecky can't do that. schwabbb!
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the final push is on. one of the most klossly watched senate races, ted cruz has attention far beyond the borders of the state of texas. ed levin has more. >> reporter: texas democrats call it beto mania. and in the last days of this u.s. senate campaign, beto o'rourke appearances are designed to generate rock star-style pandemonium. the idea of a democrat winning a statewide election in texas is still a dream. it hasn't happened in nearly 25 years. beto o'rourke says he's confident he's changed the political landscape of texas with a highly organized get out the vote campaign to bring out new voters. and o'rourke throws in some spanish sal spanish saltiness to motivate the faithful.
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>> if you really want to win this, given what's at stake, given what's on the line, given the judgment of the people of the future, our kids, our grand kids, our conscience, let's make sure that when they look back on us they do so with pride, that we don't force them to ask themselves, who were those bendejos of 2018? >> god bless texas. >> reporter: republican senator ted cruz has spent the last week of the campaign barn storming the state in the toughest texas election bust. >> the economy in texas is booming. >> reporter: ted cruz is closing out the campaign hitting on themes of jobs, freedom and security, and still embracing what he calls the victories of the president trump era, and reminding voters, we've got a good thing going. >> when the democrats come saying, you don't need your freedom, you don't need your free speech, you don't need your religious liberty, you don't need the second amendment, who the -- are they to take away our
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freedoms? >> reporter: the cruz campaign is still trying to hammer home the idea that beto o'rourke is too radical and too liberal for texas. even senator cruz's mother helped her son make the case during a campaign event in houston this weekend. >> there is such a stark contrast between my son and the other candidate, whose name i will not mention. [ applause ] >> one is a socialist, the other is for free enterprise. one is for open borders, the other is for the wall and secure borders. >> ted cruz and his supporters describe you as a radical socialist. how do you combat that with voters who are on the fence with which way to vote? >> we can give in to the name calling and petty stuff and partisanship. >> reporter: o'rourke picks up the answer in front of the crowd waiting for him outside austin. >> the pettiness, the meanness,
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the smallness that defines so much of what happens in the highest offices of public trust, to that we are going to bring our courage, our confidence, our strength, this big, bold beautiful heart that could only come from texas. >> reporter: at this weekend rally in a small victoria hotel texas ball room, cruz showed up wearing red gloves, their symbol that a red wave in texas will end beto mania on election day. >> that is texas. that is who we are. when liberty is threatened, we will rise to defend it. we will rise to defend the constitution, and we will rise to defend the united states of america. thank you and god bless. [ cheers and applause ] >> ed levity joins us from san antonio. what does each candidate have planned the last couple days before the election? >> reporter: well, it's really a focus on those areas and the
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part of the state where they believe they can really generate the most voter turnout. you're going to see beto o'rourke here on the last day campaigning in houston and dallas before flying home, ending his 21-month campaign back in his hometown of el paso. ted cruz is focused on the suburbs around his hometown of houston. that's where you'll see him on the last day of campaigning. anderson, it's really hard to overstate the -- impossible to overstate, but the early voter turnout in this state has been through the roof and many people on both sides scrambling to figure out what it's all going to mean on election day. anderson? >> thanks very much. in these waning days of the campaign, the president's closing argument has largely rested about -- on the caravan of migrants which he calls an invasion, who are probably muslims trying to seek asylum. people who are still hundreds of miles away from the united states. president said in a rally in montana, between the justice kavanaugh and the caravan --
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arizona sheriff paul. good to have you both. leon, let me start with you. the president has framed this as an invasion. do you see it as that? >> no, it's not an invasion at all or by any definition. when it is is a clear expression of a humanitarian crisis that has been going on for a long time. there is nothing this president has been able to do to scare off people who basically are running away from countries that have the highest homicide rates on the planet. they have completely broken down law enforcement institutions. those are the elements of a humanitarian crisis. that's what these folks are running for. it's the kind of response this requires, not this sort of aggressive military law enforcement response. >> paul, do you see this ending of u.s. active duty u.s. military as the appropriate move? >> no, i recommended from the
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start -- i served as a commanding officer in yuma as you know for a year and a half with the national guard. i believe that a military presence at our sovereign border is called for, not in a law enforcement capacity, but a support role as we did with our heroes in the border patrol, basically to secure our border and to say absolutely, you're not coming through. you talk about an invasion. the reason why not just president trump, but half of america believes that this has been an invasion, not just with three or four caravans coming from honduras or el salvador, but we're talking 22 million illegals that have come into our country. that's huge. and so when we put this in the context of a humanitarian wave and economic now, this new word, economic migrants coming in here calling for refugee asylum status, if we think we're going to allow three or four caravans
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to come in and that happens, how many more caravans do you think are going to come? it's not going to stop. >> leon, the ways people can actually get asylum and the criteria has been toughened by this administration. victims of domestic violence or gang violence, those are no longer, as i understand it, criteria for getting asylum into this country. to paul's point about, you know, if these people are allowed in, then it's just going to encourage more people coming in the caravan. >> you know, the fact is that the united states has always stood as a beacon for refugees and asylees. there is a long-standing humanitarian law that says individuals who are subject to crime in circumstances where their government is unable or unwilling to protect them, which is basically the case going on in this country, then we have always stood as a beacon to people like that.
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that has always been the kind of country that we've been. our attorney general, on the other hand, seems hell bent on closing off every possible avenue of humanitarian relief. he's reaching down for every single immigration court decision that he can to really close off those options of lawful relief. people are trying to follow the law, claim asylum in a lawful manner. and our government is closing off every option for those folks. >> paul, the president has talked about -- the president has talked about cutting aid or stopping aid to countries like el salvador, guatemala if they can't control people from leaving and heading north. i've talked to a lot of people who were involved in immigration issues on the front line. the exact opposite would happen. it would be more cost-effective to try to prevent people from leaving by developing programs that encourage people to stay and make -- help keep them safe. >> sure. >> and have opportunities in the countries of their origin.
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>> and i would agree with what you said. i said that on your program before. i think a far more humanitarian effort and approach for the united states to take, help those countries out. fight the violence, fight the gang activities and the drugs that is creating this situation. but with due respect, leon didn't answer your question, because yes, we are a beacon of hope, and we are a land, a proud history of immigrants. yet there's 45 plus million citizens in central america. there's 125 million in mexico. many of these people can make the very same argument. so, what's the limit? and we don't even have our own business together here in the united states for a lot of people that we say and profess that we take care of. our senior citizens, our veterans. you look at baltimore and chicago and the violence, the crime, the gangs, the heroin in these black neighborhoods, the crime rates are higher than some of these places in central
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america. >> leon, how do you respond? >> let me respond. first of all, let's point out something that the sheriff and i absolutely agree on. that is we do need to help the central american problems overcome their problems of civil disorder and make it possible for their populations to not have to pick up and run to the united states. that is not where they are now. and as long as that's the position they're in, people are going to keep trying to go elsewhere because if you're in a position where your child is certain to become a gang member, or to be recruited on pain of possible death to join a gang, or if you have a daughter who may be subject to sexual assault by gang members, then you will do what you need to do to protect your children. now, my response on your other point is, it is simply to follow what had been the long standard -- long-held standards of ref jew and asylum law. this administration seems hell
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bent on narrowing to the greatest extent possible. and reducing the avenues of humanitarian admission that have always exist ed in this country, reducing them to the greatest extent possible. >> we have to wrap it up there. always appreciate it. thank you very much. two races, two different states, too close to call, a house campaign in california and senate raise in arizona. we'll talk to our election experts about what works in the final sprint to turnout the vote. checkout is at four. enjoy your ride. (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪ explore more with a guaranteed 4pm checkout
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it ensures the closest ambulance remains on-call during paid breaks "so that they can respond immediately when needed." vote yes on 11. the final push is on for what is predicted to be an extremely tight senate race in arizona as well as a critical house race in california. tonight a look at what is at stake in both states and beyond. >> reporter: only hours left, and the battle for southern california's 45th district. >> are you ready for a representative who fights for you? [ cheers and applause ] >> reporter: democratic challenger katie porter is rallying her troops. >> senator kamala harris! >> reporter: with some senatorial star power and a house race too close to call. >> we need our strongest
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soldiers on the field. >> reporter: with just one last weekend, volunteers are grabbing clipboards, pounding the pavement, hitting houses like democratic volunteer jennifer coe and her 7-year-old son quincey. do you feel that this last push by you is going to make a difference? >> i mean, i'm going to do what i can, you know. i don't want to have any regrets. i don't want to see the election go the other way and see the other candidate win and think that i could have done a little bit of something this weekend to make that difference. >> thank you. tell your friends. thanks a lot. >> reporter: republican congresswoman mimi walters is not just on defense, but offense, to save her job and keep this district red. is it a fight to convince those last hold outs? >> you have to work hard for every single vote. every vote counts. what we are doing is making contact with every single voter and making sure that those people who support me turnout to the polls. >> i volunteer at the congressional leisure fund -- >> reporter: republican
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volunteers arrive early. >> the number of people we're looking at here is pretty surprising, given that it's 10:00 a.m. -- >> 10:00 a.m. on a saturday. >> and you have young people. >> we've seen enthusiasm in our offices across the country. that's what's leading to these 30 million contacts in the election cycle. >> reporter: in this last weekend, get out the vote means get to the people, especially in toss-up races. arizona senate candidate martha mcsally. 66 >> get your carbo and protein load here. >> reporter: is serving her closing message with pancakes. she's in a tight run, one of the states in control for the battle for the senate. >> this is a very important election. >> reporter: both parties are sending out their heavy hitters, crisscrossing the country. the president hit georgia today for republican gubernatorial candidate brian kemp. >> there have to be consequence when people don't tell the truth.
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>> reporter: in indiana, former president obama campaigned for joe donnelly. a merry term midterm season finishing with one final sprint. there are so many races too close to call. what is it going to take to push it over the finish line? >> it's going to take getting people out to vote. this election cycle, what i'm experiencing is people realize they actually have to vote if they want to influence the outcome. >> you join us from arizona. it's not just the political parties organizing. you're with a progressive grassroots phone bank. who are they targeting? >> reporter: they're targeting independents, and independents in arizona are critical. a third of registered voters here in this state are independent. so as you take a look at this room, we're actually in a private house, anderson. and all of these people here are phone banking. over here, this table has a number of registered independents that they are calling one by one. they are trying to reach them, trying to encourage them to get out and vote. over here, they're actually
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texting people, combination of texting and calling, trying to make those individual connections. they are hoping to reach a thousand people just in this phone banking session tonight. and this lady over here, gayle, she hits 200 every single time she is here. 200 people, that is. so, and they've been doing this, anderson, not just tonight, not just in this last week, they have been doing this since august. so will it be effective? they believe so. it's not just here in this room, but there are some 40 indivisible groups like this just in the state of arizona alone. anderson? >> fascinating. thanks very much. back now with our gallant team of election experts. i'm dufus, they're gallant. it is fascinatin fascinating, j mechanics of individual contacts, each tries to have multiple contacts with each voter. they're knocking on doors, and then following up on text and phones. >> and that group indivisible did not exist when donald trump was elected. it is now one of the biggest
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groups in the country. we are living in an era where groups -- where people who are sitting book, they thought it wassing go to be easy for hillary clinton, they didn't do anything. there is such heartburn and regret about 2016 that people -- you have black voters madder. they're out there. they've come up with this thing called relational organizing. they realize it's not just you walk down a street and knock on a door you've never seen before. you have cousins, ex-roommates. they're figuring outweighs to connect with those people. there is a technological and interpersonal revolution happening on the grassroots -- >> it's more effective if it's somebody that you know. >> it's more effective if it's somebody that you know. they're combining the high tech with the high touch. there is a lot of stuff happening out there. >> this is what sort of emerged from the obama campaigns, was the merger of the new technology and old shoe leather. but turbo charged because you make connections between people who know each other, and you can identify voters more readily who are likely to respond to your
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appeal. but the -- can i just say one thing? whatever happens, the fact that there is all this activity and people feeling vested in this election, and we see this record early vote, and we see this projections of maybe the largest midterm turnout in 50 years, that's got to be good. whatever is driving people, it's better when people are participating than when they're not. >> all the voters turn out, and being on the ground, knocking on doors is important in places like texas, like georgia where they really want to change the demographics, change the kind of people who turn out because, you know, that's what matters is voters that you're talking about, and the question in a state like texas, the democratic party doesn't really have the infrastructure, so i think these third party groups are important. but can they cover texas? >> i was going to say too, at
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some point, voters in the districts tune out because they got too many contacts, right? there's a point of oversaturation. running a race uni posed or scared, but then you push too hard and too much and people turn off and don't pay attention. >> i think the democrats are scared in a way. they are excited because they think there's a possibility of winning the house and some blue wave, and then they retreat into a corner and say, what if it does not happen? >> did you see nancy pelosi saying they are going to win, and colbert said, do you want to say that? and she cancelled. >> they are worried about it because the biggest hope, i think, this is not just a wave, but realignment, you know, to your point, realignment election which matters at every level, you know, redistricting -- >> why should anyone believe the polls? i mean, why, given -- >> no, you shouldn't. >> i'll give you an example --
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>> were just talking about arizona, most of the polls i saw shows him ahead in the race, and at the early vote, it's not showing that, but the republicans are actually doing very well in arizona with the early vote. >> that's the governor -- >> governor's a rock star, and he's -- >> he -- going to benefit from that. >> i like florida. >> if -- >> same with doug, and she's the difference in maintaining control, then there's a big hug coming from a lot of republicans doing a great job down there, but bottom line is, if you look at where arizona is right now, what i'm told is that most of the republican votes outstanding are 4-4 voters, coming in every election, and they have not voted yet. if they lasted in the last four elections, they will come. >> what's critical, just, a midterm election year is -- you see a huge dropoff of voters, and, frankly, a dropoff of midterm elections. the voters are older, whiter,
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more reliable voter than presidential years. what we see in the early vote that is fascinating and may get to the 50-year record you are describing, you are seeing early vote participation in some states at presidential levels from 2016 or above. now, we'll see if the election day vote matches, obviously, nobody had to make this stuff look like exactly a presidential election, but this midterm looks more like a presidential election than a traditional midterm election. >> what they are trying to do is to get voters like millennials who really don't vote much, so in texas, we're seeing a 500% increase in early votes among millennials. granted, it was a low base to start with, so -- but they are seeing a surge in -- >> 500 are coming out. >> right. hopefully more than that, but you see that's, you know, what they are trying to get the young people to see this, but it's true, a surge with women, but the independents -- >> the independent --
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>> that's what i said, it's a problem for democrats. >> it is. >> latino vote is not coming the way they want, but it's more than it was last time around so you have to continue to be on it. point is, this realignment, just finish the sentence, and i'll turn it over to you. it's just, you know, always trying to steal my thunder. just kidding. you will agree that the realignment that's happening right now has to be a bit of a threat to the republicans, if -- >> it's a threat to democrats. >> letting him talk, come on. >> not yet. >> if democrats are successful in getting not regular voters out in the midterms. >> realignment took place because of donald trump. i think that's the realignment herement we saw it in 2016. the question is, does it hold in 2018. the fact that blue collar men, i mean, working people in this country, blue collar folks, seeing wages going up, now
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coming back into the work force, i mean, we're seeing dinism, manufacturing, the trade war, trump fighting on trade, i understand that doesn't get the headlines, that's not the controversial stuff, but for a person who has been on the margins who doesn't think either party cared about them, whether you are hispanic, black, or white, those are issues that matter because you're feeding your family, and that's the realignment that happens, and i wish the president would talk about it more, but he doesn't. >> on the realignment issue, the realignment election, the house comes in younger, more diverse. what's that do for the governing and party leadership? do they cut deals with the president or impeach the president? >> so you're saying that they'll help democrats win the house, and that's going to be a problem, but my guess is most democrats would say, well, that's a high class problem i'd like to have. you have to admit, it's a little bit of a blood bath, and you run too far -- >> both caucuses will be interesting. >> we have to wrap it up, thank you to the panel, appreciate it,
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hello, everybody. i'm chris cuomo live from washington, d.c. welcome to a special sunday edition of "prime time." so a verdict is coming in 48 hours, just two days we're going to know whether trumpism is truly a mass movement. the president is banking that his special sauce of fear and loathing of migrants will bring out his folks all across this country. so if the democrats sweep up house seats with anything like a wave, the trump base is going to be seen as critics suggest, a minority that is more about rallies than real impact. the magic number is 23. that's the number of seats that the democrats need in the house. it's only two in the senate, but it's actually more likely the democrats