tv New Day With Alisyn Camerota and John Berman CNN November 6, 2018 2:00am-3:00am PST
camerota and john berman. >> welcome to a new edition of "new day." it is tuesday, november 6th. 5:00 in washington. the day is finally here. the day that we have talked about so much over the past year. voters across america will head to the polls to give their verdict on the direction of the country and trump presidency and decide which party will control the house and senate. >> we do not know what will happen. we really don't. what we know is more than 31 million americans have cast that are votes early. polls will open across the country throughout the next four hours and we will be your guides through the democratic process this morning. intensity is so high, there could be records stet in plaets for the mid-term elections. >> what is at stake today? all 435 house seats are in play. along with 35 seats in the senate. the big question, of course, will democrats be able to flip
the house or senate or both? throughout the morning, we will break down the races that could shift the balance of power. >> governor races are huge. 36 of them. that could tell us more than anything about the direction of the country. perhaps more than anything, this is a race about the president. he knows that. all you have to do is listen to him on the stump. he says it all the time. he kept a dizzying pace up until the end. and painting a dark picture on immigration. that was by design. sources tell cnn he hated the closing ad with positive messages about the economy. he inspired the pivot to immigration which included the ad which was racist and false it was rejected by cnn and banned by nbc and fox. although after it has run on football. let's bring in david gregory and abby phillip and robbie muck.
i want to tell you thank you for being here. >> extra early. >> i appreciate you being here. >> riding up on the elevatoelev alisyn was happy to be here. she is so happy with the temperature in the studio. >> there are few viewers in hon kong who want to know. >> just thrilled for alisyn. david, we don't know what will happen today. i think what we do know is this is the day that will set the parameters for the trump presidency. >> this is the first data point we have on the leadership we have here. it is not just tone or tenor or leadership style. it is what he has done and promises to do. the ways in which he has divided the country and united his
supporters. all of that is on the ballot. i think the idea of resistance the democrats had after losing the race when so many democrats thought hillary clinton would become president, was felt immediately. the reaction to not just his style, but how he cast america both here and abroad was something that people reacted to very strongly. so there's incredible intensity out there right now. it is not just intensity on the left among those who see this as resistance. it is on the right as well. the contentious kavanaugh hearing united the republican party and the strong economy. the hardline finish on immigration. whipping up support among the president's biggest supporters. that's the part we have a hard time identifying. we know how much intensity is out there. it could make a difference in the tight house race where is the republicans are playing
defense in the country. that is a big story. >> i think that is the issue here, robby. all roads. i get the sense you are feeling bullish. is there a sense of trepidation you have been here before and you knew which way it will go? >> i think david hit the nail on the head. we know the democratic base is energized. we have seen encouraging data. actually a lot happened on election day in 2016. we saw really high turnout and high performance for the president and the rural areas. what i think about florida and north florida which turned out and performed well for the president. there is a big question mark right now. i think what david made a good point about is we saw the president get out there to turn out his base. i would argue he crossed that line at least a few days ago with the tv ad where he was doing more to turn out the democratic base with his rhetoric than he is doing to turn out his own base.
i think he is probably going to regret this strategy at the end of the day. >> matt, is that true? paul ryan called the president over the weekend and said we want you to talk about the economy. >> i don't know about the phone call. we have run ads on both. last week we released 15 ads. all talked about tax cuts and the economy. we have been running ads about immigration for months. not just in states near the border. pennsylvania and minnesota and districts hillary clinton won such as california. this is an issue since june in our polling. we can run on both. >> let me say this quickly. they tried this strategy in virginia last year. it fell flat on its face. democratic turnout was off the charts. you will see the same thing, i think. you have all of the republicans who will lose dozens. they womill point to one person. it will be ugly for him tomorrow. >> abby, you have been at the white house right next to the
leaf blower. >> let's turn one on in here? >> that would have been great. >> warm welcome. >> and the president gave a really interesting interview to sinclair yesterday in which he was asked if he has regrets and if he would do anything differently. listen to what the president said. >> is there anything as you look back at the first almost two years that you regret and you wish on you that you could just take back and redo? >> well, there would be certain things. i'm not sure i want to reveal all of them. i would say tone. i would like to have a much softer tone. i feel to a certain extent i have no choice. maybe i do. maybe i could have been softer from a standpoint. >> what does that tell us? abby? >> i'm not sure it tells us anything, alisyn. i think the president is fully aware of how he is perceived. he has made a decision that he wants to be perceived by his
supporters as strong. that's what they want from him. i did find it interesting. he has been asked a similar question in the past. his answer in the past was, well, i regret the fake news media is treating me really poorly. this is a different tone. >> evolved. >> it could be situational. we are coming off a really difficult two weeks for the country. i think the synagogue shooting really did have an affect on him, alisyn. i know you have spoken to the rabbi that he told the president that tenor and tone matters. he doesn't look at it in politics. he looks at it as strong versus weak. he doesn't want to be perceived as weak. he said he is fighting back against unfair treatment. i don't think that will change. >> there are three possibilities. i was shocked to hear it.
it made my hair hurt. i have not heard this from him before. >> also, who controls it? >> he could have at any point in the last two years. >> maybe it is just noise out loud. maybe it is backwards looking and it had an affect with the rabbi's conversation. maybe he is preparing for the possibility of divided government. that is how a traditional president would approach a divided government. >> i don't think it means a lot either. maybe the last thing you heard is you look at the poll and he is down 2-to-1 among women. if he thinks about women and suburban voters, voters who may be dismissed as rinos only. republicans in name only. i don't think it means a lot. the president gets a real beating here. he always has the potential to pivot where he sees a deal f.
the prospect for a fight comes up, he will always take that. the thing for both sides tonight which interests me. if you look at the playing fi d field, you have 25 congressional districts held by republicans that hillary clinton won in 2016. it gives you the insight of the defense republicans have to play. that tells you about the red territory where they are still on the defensive. how much of the intensity was there? robby, you said something. there was something that the trump team didn't see in 2016. people on the sidelines who jumped back into the fray. that is who the president was speaking to the last couple weeks to make sure they got back in and did not feel complacent about the economy. there does seem to be on the democratic side, there is an activist and love and reaction which is similar to 2008 with all due respect, compared to
2016. whereas people are angry and frustrated and worried and rallying behind if you think about georgia and andrew gillum in florida, the progressive candidates who could be the future. >> it does seem for democrats the lesson of the cycle is not necessarily the trump anger is in the air, but look at the races. people are running on the economy. they are running on health care. because as robby knows in 2016, it was also about trump. the entire campaign became about this really unconventional candidate. that clearly wasn't enough. this time around, democrats are trying a focused strategy district by district and trying to go as local as they can. if that works tonight, it could be a lesson for the next two years and next presidential cycle. >> stand by. when we come back, we will talk about the races and which races
to watch tonight. cnn's election night in america begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern and join us tomorrow. "new day" starts at 5:00 a.m. >> let's do it at 4:00? >> yes. be careful. president trump warning again of voter fraud without any evidence. is that a preview of what's to come? (vo) this is not a video game. this is not a screensaver. this is the destruction of a cancer cell by the body's own immune system, thanks to medicine that didn't exist until now. and today can save your life. ♪ ♪
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president trump returning to a familiar and false claim from the 2016 election. warning again without evidence about the threat of voter fraud today. >> all you have to do is go around and take a look at what's happened and you will see. there are a lot of people, a lot of people, in my opinion and based approvon proof, that try in illegally. we want to let them know there will be prosecutions. >> it is interesting to listen to his rhetorical style. based on my opinion and proof. he knows to sneak that in. we are back with abby, david, matt and robby. matt, we all looked at this over
the past two years because of what the president said in 2016 of vast voter fraud. what they have found is a lot of evidence of voter suppression. not fraud. you can count voter fraud on one hand. the colleges which have studied it. what is the president doing when he says that today? >> what we have to do is as we have lawyers across the country. it is to make sure every legal vote is counted. we have clohave clusters of fole house race in southern california and illinois. we need to make sure if it is close, which this could be, we can mobilize quickly and tallahassee in 2000 where things changed on a dime. >> he is excuse shopping. he wants to say there is fraud if we lost. it is a nervous tick for him.
matt, while we have you here, you spent 24 hours a day concerned about getting republicans elected to the house. that is where the focus is here. as we get into tonight, what are the moments where you will know you are having a good night or bad night? >> first things, 6:00 p.m., polls close in kentucky. we talked about it before. it is the play-in game for the ncaa tournament. we will know how we are doing very early. i would watch minnesota. a bellwether state. defense on the suburbs. whoever comes out of minnesota looking best will tell us the night. lastly, orange county. it will be a long process. california. we have great candidates out there. the first korean-american woman could be elected to congress. a lot of women in the day of
president trump is on the ballot. >> and the data. one of the things i read in the close races you have the republican candidates who are -- whose polling is running a points behind the president's national approval rating. that indicates a surge in republicans. if you look at it compared to last month, do they have an opportunity to catch up to a low national approval rating, but still tracking behind him, there is room to grow on election day. >> the base has come home. folks are getting 2/3 of the republican base on our side and now getting 90% plus. with the swing voters who are skeptical right now, it is a two-step process. some may want to check on president trump, but they are not sure where the democratic party is going. there is a lot of dysfunction in the issues people care about.
43% of voters that were not voting democrat are not voting because they know it will grind d.c. to a halt. >> robby, what races are you looking at today? >> i can't believe i'm saying this. before you were on, nathan gonzales was on. he was pointing out new jersey and virginia. they close earlier in the night. if we win one seat in virginia, that's good. two or three in new jersey, that's awesome. new jersey, we could win up to four. >> democrat side? >> yes. i mentioned florida before. that was an important state in 2016. that is a bellwether for the president's base and how that is performing. remember, rick scott had a close race in 2014. we have a midterm to compare apples to apples. southern florida has gotten bigger. it has become more democratic. scott needs to do a lot better in the republican parts of north florida to win.
if he is matching 2014, bad sign for republicans. >> he needs to grab the slice of voters that trump did in 2016 and expand his base. >> look, you can argue central pennsylvania and western pennsylvania. we will see the signs of what happens in missouri and other states. >> you see minority and young people turning out. the governor's race in georgia. that could turn into a run-off. the fact that stacey abrams is running as a progressive black woman in a red state is as close as she is is really surprising. florida as well. another african-american candidate as a progressive and clearly is helping bill nelson get across the finish line because he is turning out so many young people to vote. >> abby, what do we know about the president's plans for tonight and tomorrow? do we anticipate if democrats take control, there will be a
news conference and say i took a shellacking like president obama did in 2014? >> it is not clear if he will do that. one way or another, he is at home. he is at the white house. he is watching. they will have people over. they are creating a bit of an election night watch party at the white house with family and friends. the president doesn't appear to be totally ready to reset yet. i think that we were discussing this earlier. will trump turn around if the democrats win the house and blame democrats for the dysfunction or whatever it is? the problem is he has been doing that for two years now. it is hard to see how that d dynamic will change on wednesday morning because he actually has been blaming democrats although republicans have controlled power in washington. this might make it easier. that is a better position for him to be in as he pivots to 2020.
he is already running. the 2020 election is going to start on wednesday. he is not going to slow down from all indications. campaigning, going back out and see supporters. gaining energy from them and keeping them on board. i don't know that we will have a hard pivot to governing starting after the election. >> that is why i said this at the beginning. i think that by tonight or tomorrow morning, we will know the parameters of trumpism. we will know if the closing message worked and suburban women voting. >> this is the story of the election right now. is the republican party going to fully become the trump party? the entire republican party right now is running on trump. will they become the trump party? if the strategy works, honestly if it works for holding on to the senate and gaining a seat or two in senate, that would be a huge boost for him and his
political instincts. i think that will give him a lot of wind at his back going into 2020 with his party. >> we should remember that we think of midterm races as a referendum as the party in power and in this case, the president and on trumpism. i see a pivot to 2020. i don't see the president saying if there is a democratic majority in the house, we will see what they do. i don't think democrats and majority in the house will be interested in that. they want to go full steam ahead and investigating and maybe impeaching the president and setting the stage for 2020 as well. 2020 is a choice. it is not a referendum. he will go against somebody. that changes the dynamic completely. >> one thing we have not had before here, the republicans were in control of everything. the incentive was hold the party line. you have dozens retired members and dozens who lost their races. there is so much pressure on the president to take a lot of the
blame. we have not seen that before. you will have almost 200 republican members running on the hill who just lost power. there will be a lot of anger. he hasn't had to deal with that before. it will change a lot. >> or credit which would be an absolute revolution. >> just to level set one thing. the democrats held the senate in 2010. obama called it a shellacking. >> we are watching balance in the electorate. we are seeing the republican races who made a small investment. both parties have had to go back into races they thought were dead and buried on both sides. some of them were really democratic seats that hillary clinton won by 20 points. democrats had to go back into that area. we had to go back in where we thought we were in a good place. robby, there is volatility.
especially the last two weeks. >> we say we don't know what will happen. it is clear the strategists don't know. >> if your goal is no surprises, i don't know if that works. thanks so much. voter turnout is expected to be high, but, and this is serious. i'll have the strategists in the break here. the weather is a problem. severe weather in some parts of the country. the major storm hitting on election day. we'll talk about that next. - [narrator] meet the ninja foodi,
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we need to get to election day weather. it looks extreme. a tornado struck this morning in alabama. there are reports of power out in knoxville, tennessee and strong storms will sweep the u.s. as americans vote today. we have cnn meteorologist chad myers with the forecast. >> it looks stormy. 40 reports of wind damage. two tornadoes on the ground in the overnight hours and the weather is not over. it is moving to the northeast. tornado warni tornado watching aes are in eff. what does it take to be a dangerous tornado for you? if it is close to your house, it will be a dangerous day through montgomery and birmingham and atlanta, georgia from the morning hours to the afternoon. it moves through at 10:00 when the weather gets going. by 3:00, we move it into the northeast. this is the day we hoped didn't happen. there will be some rain drops
and spaces in between the rain drops. plan your day. watch the radar. things will get bumpy for the afternoon. it is the overnight hours that were the problem. temperatures in the 50s and 60s. in florida, 70s and 80s. back to you. >> chad, thanks. i appreciate it. chad myers. traditionally speaking, bad weather helps republicans. we spoke to robby and matt, they say it could hurt the republicans. >> also it is happening in florida. they told us to watch it closely. it is election day. we are done with the polls and projections. some numbers tonight could decide whose campaign is a session -- is a success. we have john avlon with us. >> berman, it is election day in america. after you go out and vote, keep an eye on the results.
always the thing we have here is the number 37. average number of house seats where the president's party loe loses if he is below 50% approval. he is way below 50%. democrats need 23 seats to gain control of the house. on the plus side for the president, unemployment at a near 50-year low. it could be a tsunami wave of an election. that is looking unlikely. next up is ten. the senate seats democrats are defending that trump won in 2016. they are trying to flip arizona, texas and tennessee. the balance of power for republicans which is a steeper climb for democrats. who will decide the closest races? independent voters. keep your eye on this number. 16%. that is the average swing of voters to the opposition party
in the last three midterms. 2014, 2016. that is the number of pivot counties that won in 2016 that obama won twice before. that is the real battleground map. notice the cluster in the midwest. iowa, wisconsin and michigan. democrats are making strong runs for governor in each state that voted for trump. it is annoying to say it all comes down to turnout, it is a cliche and it is true. 40% is the average turnout for eligible voters in the last three midterms. including 2006 and 2010. 2014 midterms election fell to 40%. that is a 40-year low. america, we should be able to do better than 4 in 10 voters casting a ballot given the stakes. whatever your age or affiliation, today is the day. go out and vote. democrat cy is not a spectator sport. that is your reality check.
>> i want to shoutout to john who is addressing america directly. america is scared right now. thank you for that warning. >> and viewers around the world. you are all watching. john's just talking to america. >> simulcast internationally. which races decide who controls the house and senate? we will tell you what would watch out for tonight. stick around. making my dreams a reality takes more than just investment advice. from insurance to savings to retirement, it takes someone with experience and knowledge who can help me build a complete plan. brian, my certified financial planner™ professional, is committed to working in my best interest. i call it my "comfortable future plan,"
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in just a matter of minutes, polls open in 12 states on the east coast. what are the key races to watch? here with us is ron brownstein and alisyn, if i have to be here, you have to be here. you are the human guide for tonight. we want to know what are the races you are watching that are indicative of where it is goin? >> i picked four races the
democrats don't have to win. each would measure how far their gains may go. the first is virginia. dave brat in the richmond sub b suburbs. a district which is more republican leaning. the democrats have to win in the northern area with barbara comstock. this measures how far the democratic advance proceeds in the white collar suburbs. comstock district is gone. if democrats are winning this and in pennsylvania with brian fitzpatrick. democrats are almost certain to win in the philadelphia suburbs. if they are also beating brian fitzpatrick who does not talk about his party affiliation. that is a sign that the losses for republicans in the white collar suburbs outside of the south could be enormous. that is the epicenter of the republican vulnerability. the third race is measuring
kentucky. the race the democrats don't have to win. this is an interesting district. it combines ysuburban and urban and college district. you have more races where the intensity against trump or for trump. which is more powerful at the moment? then one final one. georgia. the district without ossoff. lucy mcbath is ahead in polls. this is not a district democrats need to win. if she wins, it means the erosion for republicans is not confined to the coasts and upper midwest. it is extending into the south. that would be again the kind of advance for democrats to allow them to get higher in the total. if mcbath wins, it is possible republicans could lose seats in houston and dallas and other suburbs which are tougher for democrats than the northern
areas for the republicans. >> you want to move on to the senate? indiana. >> indiana is the state on the bubble for democrats in terms of how far exposure extends in the red states that trump won. the tough ones are north dakota which seems almost gone and missouri with claire mccaskill on the defensive. indiana and montana are in the next tier. if democrats have any chance of avoiding a loss in the senate, it is important for them to hold indiana and hold the line pretty much after north dakota and missouri. >> how about in arizona? >> arizona is the flip side. the best democratic opportunity is in nevada. that is the one where the early vote which banked the 40,000 early vote advantage in clarke county. they have to feel good about nevada. arizona is the next best chance to flip a state. i think of indiana and arizona
as toggling. you have the two likely losses for democrats or the greatest risk of losses. the one pick up is indiana and arizona which are the next states to decide if it is awash or if democrats have a net loss. >> indiana is early. that's a sign of the night. ron, talk about voting blocks. >> the biggest difference between this election and a typical midterms election is what we talked about forever. weakness among college educated voters. in the last two midterms. 2010 and 2014, democrats won about 40% of college educated white voters each time. cnn poll yesterday, 60% voting democrats. 55% in the abc and nbc polls which came out over the weekend. if that holds -- by the way, the striking thing there, of course, these are the voters doing best in the economy. they are making a judgment about
trump on values and the way he talks about race and the way he talks about women. the volatility. it is a personal judgment not only among women. >> the wild card. the swing voters. >> the men have moved. in the cnn poll, democrats are winning college educated white men which never happens. they have not hit 40% since 2006. they are winning them as well. the women are the really big number. that is the first one. second, i think, millennials. millennials are a strongly democratic leaning group. they are plus 20 among them. they usually fall off in mid terms. 20% of the vote in the presidential. 12% or 13% in a midterm. so far in the early vote, turnout has been enormous. 460% increase in texas. 360% increase in georgia. 3 million total votes according
to target smart cast by people under 30. it was only 1 million in 2014. >> so these are uncounted. previously people who were not part of the mix? >> exactly. georgia, 800,000 people who voted early who did not vote in 2014. the last thing i mentioned quickly is seniors. seniors are the flip side of millenni millennials. their share goes up from 6. normally republicans win seniors. they won them by 15 points in the last two midterms. 2010 and 2014. cnn and the wall street journal polls. republicans are losing seniors because of the forecast us on medicare and health care. those three groups will tell us where this is going. >> ron brownstein. human voter guide. thank you for being with us. >> ron was just saying, young voters stay home in the midterms, but many are counting on the young vote today.
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more than 31 million americans voted early in the mid-term elections. they already voted. ballots are in and there has been a dramatic surge in the number of young people casting ballots. what difference will the youth vote make tonight? jason carroll has more. >> reporter: dean phillips is looking to accomplish something democrats in the state's third district haven't been able to do since 1961. win. how? by relying in part on a voting block that inspired him to run. >> i'm the father of two teenagers. i watched the election with them in november of 2016.
i did not want to wake up on november 7th, 2018, and feel the same way. >> reporter: phillips is betting on voters to turn out and help him unseat five-term republican incumbent eric paulsen. he has history and the president on his side. polls show phillips with an edge in a district that encompasses minneapolis's suburbs to the west and the city's northeastern working class neighborhood. the paulsen campaign did not respond to requests from cnn for an interview. the phillips campaign is holding round tables aimed at mobilizing younger voters. >> do you know 25% of 18 to 24 year olds in the country voted in the last midterm? >> we will change that. >> reporter: minnesota's third ranks third on the tufts list of the election results.
members of the campaign's dean's list. a group of volunteers became engaged after the parkland, florida students became politically active. >> the shooting happened and it became clear that youth has a place. >> you feel parkland was the flipping switch? >> yes. >> reporter: david hogg says he does not endorse candidates, but he has hit the road. during the stop in new york, he said he took a page from president trump. >> i feel i know how trump won. it is getting the disenfranchised voters. >> reporter: there are signs efforts may be working. 40% of people under the age of 30 say they plan to vote tuesday. according to our harvard institute of politics poll, that is a significant jump from 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.
gun violence is not the only issue motivating these voters. >> are you registered to vote? >> reporter: in virginia, array of issues inspiring first-time voters on the campus of william and mary. >> sexual assault and harassment. >> reporter: and this from a town hall at harvard university. >> who said police brutality is important? >> reporter: whatever the issue in the north star state, dean phillips hopes it guides him to victory. jason carroll, cnn, minneapolis. to this story. the u.s. olympic committee is looking to revoke the usa gymnastics as the governing body in the wake of the larry nassar scandal. the olympic committee chief writes everyone now faces the difficult reality of belonging to a national organization that continues to struggle to change its culture to rebuild its
leadership and effectively serve the membership. you deserve better. the decertification process does not guarantee a particular outcome. usa gymnastics serves 150,000 athletes around the country. >> fascinating. turmoil in the gymnastics community here. one thing is happening with the turmoil. they are winning. the girls' team is winning. >> tenacity they have shown as athletes throughout all of this drama has been incredible. the campaigning is over. it's all in the voters hands. wake up. get out. go vote. by tonight, we will know which party controls congress. we have it all covered for you next. apital one is bu something completely new. capital one cafes. inviting places with people here to help you, not sell you. and savings and checking accounts with no fees or minimums.
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[ neighing ] [ neighing ] [ sigh ] it's bring your own phone, not pony. so i could've taken the bus? yeah. bring your phone. switch your carrier. save hundreds a year with xfinity mobile. call, click or visit a store today. it's going to come down to turnout. >> every last vote really does matter. >> if the radical democrats take power, they will take a wrecking ball to our country. >> this election is about whether we feel comfortable having a president who is a pathological liar. >> i've got a feeling that blue wave is going to hit that red
wall across america. >> at lo lot of people are goin the polls and saying the president is unbecoming. >> it is time for action. >> announcer: this is "new day" with alisyn camerota and john berman. >> welcome to the viewers in the united states and around the world. this is "new day." it is tuesday, november 6th. 6:00 here in washington. it is on. it is now officially election day as of this minute polls open in 12 states. who will win? what will happen? we don't know. what we do know is that this is a defining election for the country and really for the president as well. 31 million people, by the way, have already cast early votes. the big question is the balance of power in congress. will democrats flip the house? will they flip the senate? 435 house seats at stake tonight. 35