tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN February 3, 2019 7:00am-8:01am PST
like never before store. the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, putin versus donald trump. on nuclear missiles and venezuela, the two are surprisingly not seeing eye to eye at all. why is the white house withdrawing from one of the most important cold war treaties? >> we're not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons and we're not allowed to. >> why is trump so strongly
behind the opposition in venezuela, while putin backs maduro? i have a great panel to talk about all of that, and more. then, el chapo. once, his was the most feared name in mexico. twice, he escaped from maximum security prisons in his home country. now, we'll tell you some of the extraordinary stories a brooklyn jury has learned about his life of crime. but first here's my take. this year's world economic forum, more than usual, prompted a spirited round of elite bashing, which has now become the trendy political posture on both the right and left. on the one side, president trump and fox news host slammed the out-of-touch establishment that, according to them, has run things into the ground. on the other side, left winger decry the millionaires and billionaires who, in one phrase, broke the modern world. in between is a bleak view of
modern life, dysfunctional global order, but is this depiction, in fact, true? are we doing so very badly that we need to bring back the guillotines? on income, the story is actually one of astonishing progress. since 1990, over 1 billion people have moved out of extreme poverty. inequality from a global perspective has declined dramatically and all of this has happened chiefly because countries from china, india and ethiopia have adopted more moderate countries. humanitarian assistance and loan forgiveness. in other words, policies supported by these very elites. look at any measure from a global perspective and the numbers are staggering. since the early 1990s, the child mortality rate is down by 58%.
undernourishment has fallen 50% and on and on. i know the response some will have to these statistics, the numbers are the world in general, not the united states. that sense of unfairness is surely what's fueling america's first agenda. more bewilderingly, the left, traditionally concerned about the poorest of the poor, have improved the lives of at least a billion of the world's most impoverished people. which was better, 1950s, when jim crow boomed in america and women could barely work only as seamstresss and librarians? what group of elites ran the world better than our current hodge podge of politicians and businessmen? even in the west it's easy to take for granted the astounding
progress. we live longer. the air and water werer cleaner, crime has plunged and communication is virtually free. economically, there have been gains. crucially, they've not been distributed equally but there have been monumental improvements in access and opportunity for large segments of the populations of these western countries. people who were locked out and pushed down. in the u.s., the gap between white and high schoblack high s completion has almost disappeared. gender gap has narrowed. women in the workplace has almost doubled. in all these areas, much remains to be done but in each of them, there has been striking progress. i understand that important segments of the western working class are under great pressure and that they often feel ignored
and left behind by the progress made. we must find ways to give them greater economic support and moral dignity. but extensive research also shows that some of their discomfort comes from watching society in which other groups are rising, changing the nature in the world in which they enjoyed a comfortable status. after several years of slavery, desegregation in america, blacks are moving up, after several years of being structurally subordinate, women are gaining genuine equality. gays can finally live and love freely in many countries. the fact that these changes might cause discomfort to some is not a reason to pause nor to forget that it represents deep and lasting human progress and we should celebrate. for more, go to cnn.com/fareed and read my washington post column this week.
and let's get started. on friday, secretary of state mike pompeo announced that the united states is suspending its compliance with the inf treaty, one of the most important documents of the cold war. it was signed by reagan and gorbachev in 1987, those missiles that can fly up to 3,400 miles. russian weapon system puts moscow out of compliance with the treaty and has for years. so, will this bring back a nuclear arms race? joining me now, tony blinken was the department secretary of state in the obama administration and a cnn global affairs analyst. richard haas was the secretary in the department of planning under george w. bush. and senior editor of the
economist, just launched a new podcast called the intelligence. richard, explain to us why this matters. it feels like a relic of the cold war. >> it is something of a blast of the past and a relic of the cold war. that's the last thing we necessarily want to return to. for all the problems in the world today -- god knows there's enough of them, fareed, we thought this largely had been put to the past. this reminds us just how bad the u.s./russian relationship is. it's a reminder that with china on the world scene, some of the old agreements that were bilateral may no longer be enough and it reintroduces something that we thought had been solved. this question of nuclear miss e missiles, missiles in europe. >> what does it look like in europe? this was a very controversial subject in europe. in the old days, you had the fears in europe that it was going to be a nuclear war fought between moscow and the united
states in europe, over europe's head, as it were. is this registering as a big deal in europe? >> i think, given the many other strains in europe at the moment it's coming on to the radar slowly, but i think these development also definitely push it up the order of concern here. we have to bear in mind from the european perspective, if you look at the divided germany and 30 years after fall of the berlin wall, which some of us covered, you saw then a europe that thought that those divisions were healed and that the defense and security consequences would be benign and that we would, therefore, not have to worry too much in the way that people used to go to bed sometimes in the 1980s, worrying about the real specter of nuclear warfare. this is a time where we're seeing treaties that were glued in place beginning to come unstuck. it's interesting that donald trump has taken this course. even in helsinki, the recent
meeting with mr. putin, he seemed to be saying, we'll see if we can get on, do business together. we have this start treaty in place. we might as well extend it, and the trump style about what he might get out of that. obviously, things have soured since but generally speaking there seems to be a new fodder between washington and moscow and a new chill that's reflected here. >> part of what seems to be going on, to me, tony blinken, is that the administration doesn't like the old elements of the international system, that they've viewed them as other ways that others have cheated and the u.s. has to follow the rules. on the heels of mike pompeo's speech, which i thought it was underreported, where he basically said that the european union is a bad idea, we would much prefer the -- he aligned
himself with the euro skeptics who are essentially trying to unravel the european union, another element of this sort of world order that the united states had helped build during the cold war. >> fareed, you're exactly right. what's so strange here is that in a sense this is exactly the right thing to do. profoundly wrong to pull out of the treaty in response. if someone is breaking the law, you don't tear up the law. you enforce it. this will be a gift to vladimir putin and russia. we get the blame instead of the actual culprit. it's likely to divide us from our allies and it's absolutely unnecessary. there are other steps that we could take that wouldn't put us in violation of the treaty and that would put pressure on russia to come into compliance. we have a long history much these arms control agreements, starting with john kennedy, every president through obama negotiated an accord with russia. we went from about 65,000
warheads between the two countries in the mid 1980s to today. this heads exactly in the wrong direction. >> when we come back, we'll talk about the latest on the crisis in venezuela. who is really in charge? and i've got to ask anne about brexit. prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
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inflation is, what, 100,000%? maybe much, much higher. the population has been emicerated. 2, 3 million have left and yet it seems to be able to stay in power. what is going on? is it fundamentally that the army still hasn't decided which way to go? >> more than anything else it's the security forces, the army and the special police forces that are still propping up the regime. you have quite a few cubans on the ground, providing intelligence, military support. you've got russia and chinese financial help, which has helped float the regime, despite the fact that oil exports are way down. we've been their principle importer. also the opposition. lastly, you almost have to speak about it plural. you're seeing a more concentrated opposition. until recently there was no serious alternative. so things have come to a head. what we don't know, fareed,
quite honestly, is how long they can stay here. where you began is exactly right, more than anything else will be the hearts and minds of the venezuelan military are. >> tony, when you look at this, is it fair to say that the trump administration has handled this reasonably well? i always worry that it turns into a u.s. versus venezuela, which it hasn't. they've enlisted the other latin american countries, the canadians, the brits. a, would you agree? b, what should they do now? >> i do agree, fareed. i would applaud the administration. senator rubio has played a big part in this, in rallying countries in the region to put pressure on maduro, who is illegitimate and bring other countries along. that's a good thing. here is the tough part. what i don't see, at least so far, is an actual strategy to advance a peaceful transition in venezuela and a plan b if maduro digs in and lashes out.
that's what we need. there is a comprehensive approach to take here, to continue to increase pressure on regime, the families, making sure they can't come here, anyone profiting from corruption. reach out to the military to make sure they know they have a future in venezuela and maduro, that he has a way out and is not stuck in a corner. and the cubans, who are propping up the regime. there is a strategy here. we haven't seen it yet i hope it's there. >> donald trump in negotiations needs to be reminded that the other side has to be able to find some way to say that they win. otherwise, unlikely to have a successful negotiation. and let me ask you, i've got to -- you know, it seems like right now the british parliament is basically against everything. it is against a hard brexit, against a soft brexit, against the referendum and against the prime minister's plan that was negotiation. would it be fair to say, anne,
that theresa may has bought herself two weeks but that the europeans are unlikely to give much? two weeks from now, really, theresa may will have pulled a rabbit out of her hat or perhaps her government will fall. >> the reason this is a bit of a political thriller, fareed, it's not only two weeks. it's a deadline of march 29th f no deal is reached and there's no extension, we simply leave without a deal. it certainly would be incredibly difficult, very, very bad news indeed in the uk, difficulties of movement of goods, trade, services, all sorts of things would freeze up. so it looks likely if that happened there would have to be an extension. the question really is what does she think she can get? she may think that the closer
the europeans move toward march 29th, which is highly inconvenient for them -- they also have very difficult elections ahead, looking very strong in these parliamentian elections, they may agree and put pressure on dublin to rewrite the wording around the transitional nature of that complicated backstop. they might. it doesn't look like it at the moment. right now it's looking like theresa may against institutional europe. brits like to be the underdog. they don't want to be the underdog forever. >> thank you. thank you all. fascinating conversation. next on gps, the u.s. economy has had some good news of late. the outlook in china, the world's other economic superpower, is not so rosie. we'll tell you why, and the big and surprising reason why, when we come back. when i walked through a snowstorm for a cigarette,
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the lowest rate in almost 30 years. so when trade talks between the u.s. and china began, beijing experienced something new, vulnerability. it is now a middle income country and cannot sustain double-digit growth. there's more to it than that, according to an economist. in a new book "the state strikes back," he points to the unproductive state-owned sector. china has a long history of massive publicly owned companies in everything from steel to electricity to telecommunications. 43% of them it built a profitable private sector from scratch. that sector is responsible for the majority of the country's economic growth and new jobs but under xi jinping the country has turned away from private
companies and focused again on building up state-owned companies. in 2016, private firms held just 11% of new loans and state firms had 83%. that's a huge change from just six years ago. state-owned firms are not a sound investment. he estimates state firms and other such policies cost china as much as two percentage points of gdp on average from 2007 to 2015. china has gotten into the habit of pumping money into the economy at any hint of a downturn, according to the chief global strategist at morgan stanley. in many cases, the state is both the borrower and the lender so the money can move freely. after the financial crisis, china issued a massive stimulus, valued at over 12% of gdp, according to the financial times. the stimulus kept growth up, but it led to a huge surge in debt. the proportion of china's debt
to gdp is now 253%, extraordinarily high for a developing country. much of that debt belongs to corporations, including private and state-owned firms. and this is dangerous because debt is a ticking time bomb. it will likely lead to a long-term slowdown or recession, possibly both. xi jinping's government has promised to contain china's ballooning debt but faced with a downturn and more bad news when the negotiations fail, they are planning to inject the economy with easy money. there's a reason to do so that has nothing to do with the economy. state-owned firms are organs of the communist party's control of the society. in the ongoing trade talks, the u.s. will press china to reduce subsidies to state firms because they crowd out firm competition. if china's only aim were growth,
the u.s. might get somewhere. as michael schuman writes in the atlantic, the fight between the u.s. and china is not just a spat about tariffs, it's a contest of two very different national ideologies. if china is doubling down on state control at the expense of growth, the two sides may find very little in common. next on gps, almost three months ago, the trial of the most notorious drug kingpin began. as the prosecution presented its case, there have been extraordinary stories about the world of drug running. those stories when we come back. d cheddar, simmered broccoli, and no artificial flavors. enjoy 100% clean soup today. panera. food as it should be. that strip mall sushi, well,t i'm a bit unpredictable. let's redecorate.
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joaquim guzman loves tunnels, better known as el chapo. he used them to run drugs to the u.s. and also used them to escape once authorities were hot on his tail and he used them again to escape prison. a vice reporter was in court just about every day for the 11-week trial. welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> we know about el chapo mostly because of the tunnel. it's a breathtakingly ambitious tunnel. tell the whole story of how can you possibly build a tunnel like that, which comes directly under the shower, the one place where
the camera couldn't see what he was doing? >> so this being chapo, there are several tunnels. the one you're talking about was in his prison cell in 2015. in that instance it was a mile-long tunnel that went from basically a shack outside of the prison straight up into the cell of his prison, into the shower. now we heard testimony that other inmates were hearing rumbling underneath the prison and complaining about it. so, clearly, the prison authorities knew something was up. and you see the video of the day of the escape and el chapo gets up from his bed, makes his bed up nice and neat, puts on his shoes, walks over to the shower, looks around and ducks down, disappears. >> we know he ducks down and there's a motorcycle, right, waiting for him? >> this mile-long tunnel, a motorcycle mounted on a rail system. they think it was used to move tools and dirt in and out of the tunnel. we heard testimony he gets into the tunnel and his brother-in-law is waiting for him on this motorcycle.
chapo hops on the back, rides off to freedom and once he escapes the other end is flown off into the mountains. >> we know a lot about his extraordinary activities even while he was in prison. he was sending letters to mistresses, his associates. how did we learn all this? >> so while he was in prison in 2014, he sent handwritten letters to his associates, one of them to his right-hand man, giving him instructions on collecting drug debts and rocket grenades that he was owed and trying to pull together the pieces of his organization after he had been captured. he was also sending letters, as you said, to his mistress, who was a state lawmaker, giving her instructions about, you know, buying drugs for him. he also met with his wife in prison, who we heard testimony was integral in plotting his escape. >> and he was able to talk on a
secure phone system while in prison. how did that work? >> the secure phone system predated his time in system but it's one of the more incredible aspects of the story. one of his cocaine suppliers recommended a guy who is a systems administrator or i.t. guy to create an encrypted phone network where all the calls and communications would supposedly be secure, and it was for a time. an fbi agent said they couldn't crack it until they approached the i.t. guy who said help us crack this, and he gave them the keys to the kingdom and they were able to wire tap several phone calls where chapo was openly discussing the drug cartel business. >> what was sort of the most interesting thing about the drug cartel that he ran? >> in a way it's like a
multinational corporation. the headquarters, and there's a board of directors, which chapo could be viewed as the ceo. they have partners in colombia, who are supplying cocaine, who are supplying chemicals to make meth. they're a vertically integrated business that ships products from one country to the next. that destination, for the most part, is the united states where they're moving cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and, to a lesser extent, marijuana. >> what did you learn about the mexican government in the trial? how complicit is it and what level does that complicity go? >> there have been some shocking revelations about corruption in mexico. everybody, i think, knew that the corruption was pervasive in mexico but one witness testified that the former president of the mexico, pieto, took a $100
million bribe from el chapo. beyond that, there's been testimony that virtually every level of the government from beat cops, state cops to federal police to the attorney general's office, the military, even interpol in mexico was accused by one witness of taking bribes. without that corruption, the drug trade would not be possible. >> so learning all that you did about the drug business and this drug krcartel, where do the dru come in? i ask this because, of course, president trump says we need the border wall to stop the drugs. but this most recent drug bust suggests that everything is coming in through border checkpoints, trucks or buses. is that your sense? >> we've heard 11 weeks of testimony in the course of this trial. i don't think a single shipment of drugs we heard about would have been stopped by the border wall. the vast majority of drugs, chapo's drugs, anybody's drugs
are coming through ports of entry, concealed in vehicles or, in chapo's case, tunnels underneath the border. this bust you're talking about, 250-plus pounds of fentanyl, the largest bust in border patrol history, was hid in a semi truck, carrying cucumbers. that's, by far, the most common method traffickers are using to get drugs across border. hidden in vehicles, crossing through ports of entry. if there's one lesson to be taken from this, it's invest in infrastructure at ports of entry, more staffing, better technology to scan vehicles and make sure that people who are crossing through where they're supposed to be crossing are scanned properly, not building a wall in remote stretches of the border. >> do you think that el chapo will just be replace bid somebody else or was he unique and indispensable? >> he already has been replaced
by somebody else. as far as we know, his sons and his brother are running the faction of the cartel that he used to lead and his long-time partner, zamboda, remains free in mexico and is still running the sinaloa cartel. >> as long as there are demand for drugs from the richest country in the world, somebody south of the border will supply? >> el chapo said as much in his interview with "rolling stone." as long as there is consumption, there will be sales. >> pleasure to have you on. thank you so much. >> thanks for having me. coming up next, a debate. you heard my take at the top of the show where i sort of defended the world's elite. my next guest says i'm all wrong. don't miss it. . and 2 boxes of twizzlers... yeah, uh...for the team. the team? gooo team... order online pickup in an hour. and, now save big at the buy 2 get 1 free event. at office depot officemax. unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you? for adults with moderately to severely active
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billionaires and millionaires and other elites doing their part to fix the world or are they responsible, in large part, for many of the world's ills? at the top of the show i gave you my take on this debate f you missed it go to twitter.com/fareed zakaria. but let's bring in a writer who will surely disagree with me. he wrote "winners take all." what's the thesis of your book? >> it's a book about the united states. that we live in this era defined by paradox. extraordinary elite generosity, of the kind you see when people go to davos and do stuff around africa and malaria. the second half of the paradox, it's been a time of rising inequality, the most unequal time in 100 years, a period in which the bottom half of the
country has basically not benefited from any of the astonishing technological and global developments that have made your and my life, and many people's lives so much better. >> i think you painted an accurate picture. the changes that are causing this widening inequality, globalization, technological revolutions, are happening all over the world. inequality within societies is growing everywhere. inequality around the world, as a whole, has actually dramatically dropped because of the rise of countries like china and india. they tax the rich more. they celebrate entrepreneurs less. they have, you know, bureaucrats deciding how to allocate resources better. i'm thinking of places like france, germany. and they have widening inequality. they have the same sense of being dispossessed, they have the same tensions that are being
produced. so why is it that you think that the u.s. system is producing these problems? isn't it much more likely these are very broad, structural changes sweeping the world? inequality is rising in india dramatically, right? if those broad structural changes -- what the billionaires and millionaires -- i share your distaste for what they promote. trying to respond to these problems as best they can, governments are also trying but nobody quite has an answer and so the problem persists. >> and i would agree and disagree with that. you're right that inequality is widening in a lot of places. but i think your talk of forces is really important. i think that's been a dominant rhetoric of our age, that the things that are happening are because of these big forces. one thing that's important to remember is that these forces hit places very differently. so, yeah, you have widening inequality in europe also.
if you work 29 hours a week at a retailer in europe as opposed to 30, right, you don't have our drastically different level of health care the way you do in this country. that means when the same forces of china and automation hit germany, they don't lead to some people going bankrupt or dying of preventible diseases the way they do in this country. forces are important. but democratic choices around how to respond to those forces are also important. and what i believe has happened is that the billionaires, as you say, have realized that they live in this age. they're not dumb. they're very smart. they make a lot of money. they understand the world. they understand these trends, rising anger and in some ways have tried to get out in front of it by promoting forms of change that are meant to address these issues and meant to address them in winter-friendly ways. lean in, good. maternity leave, which is a little too expensive for them, not good. charter schools, great. higher taxes to fund equal
inadequately funded for everybody, not so great. >> more broadly, my point to you would be what is the better system? i grew up in a country -- the difference between us, i think, is we look alike, but you grew up in shaker heights, ohio, which is an upper class suburb of ohio. i grew up in india. i grew up in a country where it wasn't where billionaires and millionaires were treated like dirt, business was treated as a second-class citizen. it was the pliltitions and bureaucrats who made all the decisions about how to allocate resources. that didn't work out so well. politicians and bureaucrats turned out to be as egotistical and corrupt and hypocritical as the businessmen you point to. first of all, there has been astonishing progress but, b, what's your alternative? >> i think there are many places in the world that are doing particular things better that we can learn from. i don't think there's one model. people talk about the nordic
model. if america consisted of 4 million blond people with a relatively small number of immigrants i think we would find it easier to do a safety net of that model. >> there's enormous anger because maybe the problem isn't, you know -- a lot of the problem isn't about economics. it's about the fact that they don't like brown people coming into their country. >> fair. you said what can we do? i think we can start by acknowledging, as you said, that we do live in this age of extraordinary and kind of transformative forces that are not going anywhere. globalization, rise of industry in india. these are multiple tsunamis happening to many communities at the same time and elevating some peop people, some people are on the right side of all of those shifts and some are in between. i think we haven't had public policy keep up with the changing worl
world. >> i think the status has changed with the rise of all kinds of new groups and that you're not going to fix with a shiny new tax. that is a deep anxiety about that place in the world. >> i agree with that. >> and that's a different problem. >> i have done much reporting in those communities. i can tell you, you go to very white communities where that's that anxiety and resentment and that sense that this country used to be mine and now i'm sharing it. that's real. and i'm not going to stop the country changing to suoothe tha emotion. however you give those same people a good school where they can feel confident that their kid is prepared for the 21st century, give them a health care system where they're not sitting around the kitchen table, looking at bills, wondering if they're going to be able to make it another year. you actually give them a kind of work and reskilling and training program so that when globalization hits they see a path forward.
>> voting consistently against all the politicians who advocate for programs. >> correct. and they need to be better at it. >> this is a fascinating conversation. terrific book. delighted to have you on. >> thank you for having me. >> pleasure. we will be right back. minimums and fees. they seem to be the very foundation of
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when i walked through a snowthat's when i knewtte, i had to quit. for real this time. that's why i'm using nicorette. only nicorette gum has patented dual-coated technology for great taste. plus intense craving relief. every great why, needs a great how. be right back. with moderate to severe crohn's disease, i was there, just not always where i needed to be. is she alright? i hope so. so i talked to my doctor about humira. i learned humira is for people who still have symptoms of crohn's disease after trying other medications. and the majority of people on humira saw significant symptom relief and many achieved remission in as little as 4 weeks. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b,
intentionally felt that patriotic song. the bill is seen as part of a larger move to reduce dissent in the semi autonomous region. activists arrested, candidates barred from office. why? month-long prodemocracy movement. china felt it was a threat to the status quo and began to push back. hong kong has noticed. a recent poll found that 66% of those surveyed identify as hong kongers compared to only 32% who identify as chinese. when respondents were asked the
importance of various identities, hong kong became first and citizens of the people's republic of china became dead last, right behind chinese. it was the lowest of where chinese has ranked on this measure since those umbrella protests ended in december 2014. this distaste with the mainland was stronger in younger hong kongers and, of course, trying to change soccer fans' behavior is unlookly to help with this. the answer to my gps challenge this week is a, nigeria. after the president suspended the highest justice in the nation for allegedly failing to publicly declare his assets, the nigerian bar association called for a boycott. violated the judiciary with the suspension and he was politically motivated. gearing up for a highly contested election in just a few weeks and any disputes or abnormalities could find their way to the supreme court led by
that justice. already the eu and the u.s. have decried the suspension of the chief justice and the main opposition party temporarily suspended its campaign in protest. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. i'm brian stelter. this is reliable sources. our look at the stories behind the stories. how the news gets made and how all of us can help make it better. this hour, breaking news from president trump's super bowl sunday interview. plus, howard schultz, his book tour left a bitter taste. howard dean will weigh in on that. >> and an interview we'll only see here, with alexandria ocasio-cortez's chief of staff. all of that coming up. first, a weekend of contrasting news cycles for the democratic party. on one stream, virginia governor