tv CNN Newsroom with Poppy Harlow and Jim Sciutto CNN July 2, 2019 7:00am-8:01am PDT
a very good morning to you. i'm jim sciutto. what a difference a debate makes. joe biden slipping while kamala harris and elizabeth warren are surging. a new poll shows the lead mar oeg to five points after the first debates. that's a ten-point loss from the month before. on the other side, harris and warren are surging, proving with voters who were watching the debates. >> let's bring in political analyst in washington. you have biden dropping both warren and harris jumping, and
that narrows that margin down to something very thin. >> it's certainly does. it really does show you that these debates matter even when you have ten people on stage each night. but as you said, biden collapses by ten points. at the same time that you have warren and harris inching up almost ten points. where is the erosion with joe biden? you might be surprised. let's take a look amongst his erosion. he still has strong support with african-american voters. in fact, he has 12 points advantage over kamala harris. where he is losing ground, though, certainly in this poll, was with white college educated voters. look how close that is right there, jim, as opposed to over here. so joe biden, even though he got into the dust-up with kamala harris over the idea of federal busing back in the '70s and how they disagreed over that, african-american voters are still with joe biden. but here we go, who is best to handle race relations. clearly coming out of that debate kamala harris is at 29%. that can only help her with the african-american community
moving forward. >> what issues are driving voters from this poll? because there's often a disconnect between what's talked about and tweeted about and what most voters actually care about? >> right. so let's talk about pragmatism. in the end right now six in ten democrats want to beat donald trump. that is the number one thing for them right now. otherwise nothing else gets done. but if you flip that and you move on and you look at who has the best chance to beat donald trump when it comes to the specific candidate at this point, it continues to be joe biden. what that's fueled by is support not only from liberals but so conservative and moderate democrats. >> mark, there's more to break down here, but first i want to discuss some of what we learned. national political correspondent and national political reporter for "the new york times." molly, just use your analyst hat here for a moment. when you look at the biden numbers and the warren/harris surge, does that look like a snapshot or part of a trend? >> it's a snapshot for now and
this is going to be the question. the question is those voters that are moving on from joe biden, because joe biden had that early lead sort of sight unseen, and now that democratic primary voters are taking a look at him, the question is are they turning their back on him? did they see something in the debates that made them go not going to look at joe biden or are they just kind of shopping around? what you hear is that they very much are shopping around. they're very interested in a lot of candidates. these are super helpful for people to try to get an impression, and obviously we saw those two women candidates make the strongest impression, get the most out of that debate opportunity. but i think those voters who are migrating for now probably aren't settled yet, because it is so early, because there's so long to go, because there are going to be more debates, the question is going to be can, particularly warren and harris, maintain the support of those people, encourage more people to move in their direction,
capitalize on that momentum and can biden turned it around? >> the numbers for pete buttigieg, and one of our last analysts said you can't win the democratic nomination without african-american support, and pete buttigieg polling at zero among african-american voters in our latest poll. we had a reaction just a couple moments ago from the mayor. pete, have a listen. i want to get your reaction. >> when you're new on the scene and you're not from a community of color, you've got to work much harder in order to earn that trust. because trust is largely a function of quantity time. i'm committed to doing that work. i think the most important question is will our policy benefit black americans and all americans. and if that happens, and if i can show that, i think the politics will start to take care of themselves. >> realistic? >> i mean, its certainly what we expect from him. mayor pete has had real success, certainly with big fundraising
numbers and college educated voters, but that's not enough to win a democratic primary. this is a candidate who is largely asserted himself on the national scene through kind of elite media, through kind of a wonkiness or a kind of reference with elite spaces. you have to wonder if that is going to translate or if that is a baked-in perception that is going to be very hard for him to overcome. it's not just enough to talk about, oh, my policies benefit black americans and eventually they'll get that. you have to be able to go to those communities and gain that trust. and we haven't necessarily seen that happen, even when some of these white candidates go to south carolina, we sometimes talk about them as if they are black events. but i've been to many south carolina events where they're still drawing particularly white audiences in that state. so these candidates have to go above and beyond to make their case to that community and to kind of give that community a reason to trust them. >> stay with us. i want to get your reactions to
more numbers. back with me now is mark preston. mark, tell us what we're seeing in the poll when it comes to now candidates are polling on the key voting issues in this cycle. >> it certainly comes down to the issues when you try to distinguish yourself. let's go back to where we are at this moment in time. joe biden is doing so well because democrats right now think that he is best to handle the economy on their behalf. when it comes to health care, bernie sanders, who of course has been pushing health care since he started running back in 2015, he's number one. but biden comes in number two. and on the issue of climate change, which is an issue that democrats continue to talk more and more about, joe biden is in first place as well. so the issues do matter. but it's not only just the issues. what else happens when it comes specifically to health care. should there be a national health care program and should you eliminate private insurance? this is a big point of contention amongst the democratic candidates right now. only 30% believe that you should replace private plans. half of americans want to be able to keep their private plans
if they have it. and of course only 13% oppose a national program at this point. but should the government provide national health care, even if it's going to mean higher taxes in the end, 56% of americans believe so, jim. >> mark preston, thanks very much. let's get back to our experts for a moment. molly, so health insurance always comes top of the polls as a voting issue. one of the key questions, of course, is the national health insurance plan, but does that eliminate the employer-provided plans that so many people are dependent on? you had that raise your hand moment in the debate and most of the candidates said they would eliminate that. is that a good look for democratic candidates going into 2020? >> going into the general election it may not be. as you said, this is not a popular position among the general electoral. though i believe the numbers we were looking at were just democratic primary voters. and there's where you see that this does have a lot more support.
but it's interesting that it is still not even the plurality position of democratic primary voters to eliminate private insurance, as many of those candidates said they would favor doing. so this was the subject of some of the more substantive discussion that really took place in those debates and i think voters want to hear more of the candidates' reasoning on all of these issues. but, you know, you had that number that we showed earlier, 60% of democratic voters are much more concerned with beating trump than anything else. think these issues, these policy issues are somewhat secondary to people. they really just are concerned with electability. and what you hear when you talk to democratic primary voters, a lot of them say i think any of these candidates would do a better job with the economy, health care, any issue you want to name than the current president. they just want to make sure that that candidate is going to be able to win. >> that is a uniting issue among democratic voters. the best chance to beat trump. we talk a lot about biden, but
the other story, the other end of the ledger, kamala harris and elizabeth warren jumping here. when you lock at them, you have a really clear top tier in this race now, do you not? >> i think you do. and i think the important thing when we think about the jump was the question of electability. vice-president biden had been may being his case based off the notion that he was best to beat trump but he was above the fray in the democratic party. that he did not really need to engage with the other candidates because he had a command, a familiarity with voters that the other candidates could not match. and what that debate stage did was kind of erode that on that first night. elizabeth warren really kind of stood out from the crowd. and on the second night with the direct confrontation with senator harris, she is able to erode the question that vice-president biden is somehow above the fray. so you saw the numbers kind of reflect that with harris and warren, not just going up in the
overall poll but the question of electability and kind of moving voters more emotionally to the point where they feel like those candidates are also electable. >> let me say one more thing about biden. a worry for him should be that his worries are being propped up by plaqblack voters at this poi. it is still overly white, iowa and new hampshire that will determine the most viable candidate before you head into south carolina. so we could be in that kind of hillary clinton 2007 situation. >> thanks so much. a lot to break down. still to come this hour, china now blaming the u.s. for escalating tensions with iran. we'll have the latest. plus it's a race against time as the u.s. embassy says the condition of an american detained in russia is worsening. we're going to speak with the brother of the prisoner. and corey bocker unveils a new immigration plan and he does not need any help from congress. the senator is going to join us just ahead. pampers is the first and only diaper
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buck join us now. were they happy with this figure? it was right on par with pete buttigieg for that quarter. >> that's right. although this $24 million we understand includes a $6 million transfer from another account, so that wasn't money that bernie sanders raised this quarter. but he has to use in this campaign, so it's still useful for him. but $18 is about on par with his first quarter fundraising. it shows the enthusiasm for bernie sanders and his candidacy is consistent, not necessarily growing. certainly he's going to have another money, though, to compete in this race, to move forward and be in a race for a long time. but i want you to listen to something his campaign manager said explaining why bernie sanders was not going to raise as much as pete buttigieg. >> bernie sanders does not go into closed door high dollar fundraisers and solicit money from corporate executives in their homes.
he's decided to change because he wants a grass roots campaign. >> you have to think, jim, that there is some value added on the political side as we've seen with elizabeth warren as well for not taking the money from big donors and not having the closed door fundraisers, basically standing on principle. and it's consistent with what bernie sanders has promoted as a candidate and his brand. so they're giving up potential money from these bigger donors to be able to say we're standing firm on ideology. >> as you know better than me, campaigns like to spin these fundraising numbers. is that a fair explanation from their point? bernie sanders nearly won the democratic nomination four years ago, and now in that quarter significantly behind pete buttigieg, who is far behind him in the polling? >> absolutely, it is spin. but it's true that they're leaving money on the table voluntarily. the one thing i will point out is that you would expect with
the debate especially, which was a huge amount of exposure for all of these candidates, and we've seen the fund-raising surges that we've had as a result. and really from small dollar ononline fundraising, kamala harris raising and cory booker raising $1 million after the debate. you would expect that bernie sanders would see a similar surge. so the question is why didn't he raise more money in this quarter when he didn't in the first quarter when there wasn't that level of ex sploposure. he's been drawing the contrast with some of the more moderate candidates. why didn't he see a surge after the attacks on these candidates? does bernie sanders have momentum in this race or is he just consistent. >> rebecca buck, great to have you on the story. thanks very much. the health of an american jailed in russia is getting worse and he is not getting the treatment he needs.
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deal. they're tuurging tehran to stic with the terms of the agreement that president trump pulled out of two years ago. meanwhile the chinese foreign ministry seem to be blaming the u.s. security analyst mike rogers joins me now. congressman, always good to have you on the show. >> thanks, jim. >> i know the president's dissatisfaction with the iran deal. you and others have made criticisms about it, but the fact is iran was in a deal that limited its ability, really held back its ability to make a nuclear weapon. the president pulls the u.s. out of the deal, applies for pressure to get in effect more out of the deal and now iran has pulled out of the deal. what was the trump administration policy accomplished? >> and just to be clear, i opposed the deal as it originally started, but i also didn't think it was a good idea to pull out of the deal unilaterally. i just thought there were other leverage points. and one of the reasons is this exact one. they left all the material and capability to actually enrich
uranium, and would have enough capability to go up to weapons grade. they have it and that's a part of the deal. i thought that was a terrible idea. that being said, i think what the united states ought to be doing now is camped out in europe to try to get europe to help us through this problem set. and i think the reason the iranians are doing it now is to try to split the europeans and the u.s. further apart on thchlt remember, the europeans wanted to stay in the deal, didn't like that the u.s. pulled out of the deal. so i think that's what you're seeing iran do and that's why they announced it in this way, just subtle enough they're going to breakly 3% enrichment to try to drive that wedge. so again, if i were the trump administration, i would have folks camped out in europe trying to come up with a solution to get this thing back in the box as soon as possible. otherwise, you're just going to see a continued split. europe is going to have to join in. i'm not sure that's the best outcome. there could be some positives there, but not -- >> how does the administration
address the in con sis staens here, now that we're considering a freeze for north korea's program. you had a freeze on iran's nuclear program before it developed this deal. under this approach to north korea you would put a freeze on its nuclear program after it already has an estimated 20 to 60 nuclear weapons. how does the trump administration address that or even get north korea to believe they would abide by the deal? >> yeah, and i'm not as confident that they've gotten that far. i think the reason that trump went to the south korean/north korean border was to just kick off talks, which is a pretty high price to pay for the president of the united states to show up just to keep them engaged in the discussions. there's been no deal. i hope there is. i hope this is a new tactic that works. i'm a little skeptical that the president uses his time, talent and energy on the border, crosses into north korea just to continue the talks. to me, that is not a good get
for that relationship. however, it stopped us from shooting at each other, that gets high marks. back to how they justify it, though, really quickly, i don't think they can. i mean, the north korean program is where it's at and it started under -- well before obama, it continued under obama and it continued under trump candidly, its development. it continues under it today. so they're going to have to find a different solution. >> a lot of blame to go around. bush and clinton tried a freeze and of course the north korean cheated, as you well know. >> absolutely. >> before we go, i want to ask you because we have july 4th coming up in a couple of days. the president has long wanted a military style parade. the pentagon didn't give him tanks rolling down pennsylvania avenue as he wanted, but they have given him tanks which are going to be parked there. there's going to be a flyover, et cetera. you've been involved with military issues for a long time. is this a proper use for the u.s. military? >> as a veteran myself, i'll tell you the most important 4th
of july parades that are going to happen in america are happening in small town with veterans from world war ii can be in the parade and people will stand up and give them the standing applause. i've seen it a thousand time over my time in politics. to me, those are the most important. i hate to take away from those. a big parade in washington, d.c., okay, but the most important thing we can do is celebrate america, it's independence, it's growth. it's an amazing place. america is still an amazing place. that's where you want to stand up and celebrate the greatness of the united states and our ability to control our own destiny. >> agreed. mike rogers, thanks very much. the brother of an american detained in russia for six months says that releasing him would help improve u.s./russia relations. i'm going to speak to dave whelan about his brother's
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the u.s. embassy in moscow says the condition of an american detained in russia, paul whelan, is getting worse. it comes as his twin brother david is now calling on russia to free his brother, which he says will help improve relations with the u.s. whelan was arrested last december on espionage charges and is being held in a moscow jail. he has denied being a spy and
says he was in russia for a wedding. cnn's matthew chance has more. >> reporter: for six months now, paul whelan has languished behind these grim walls at a prison in moscow. he faces the daunting process expect of 20 years more if found guilty of the espionage charges that he denies. for months u.s. diplomats have been expressing concerns for the former u.s. marine's fell wear. whelan spoke of mistreatment in a recent brief court appearance. >> i've been threatened, my personal safety has been threatened. there are abuses and harassment that i'm constantly subjected to. there's a case for isolation. i have not had a shower in two weeks. i can't use a barber. i have to cut my own hair. i can't have medical treatment, i can't have dental treatment. >> reporter: was at this upscale hotel in central moscow where whelan was detained last
september by russia's federal security service, the kgb. details remain murky but the state-appointed russia lawyer states he was arrested shortly after accepting a flash drive containing classified information, which could have been planted on purpose. an acquaintance put that top secret information into whelan's trousers, his lawyer told reporters last month. he had known that person for ten years, the lawyer added, and regarded him as a friend. indeed, it seems whelan cultivated a range of social media friendships with russians, including former and active members of the russian military, regularly posting photos and messages in russian online. his family says he was in moscow to attend a wedding to help show american guests around the city he knew so well. his friendships, his job in corporate security, his multiple pass ports from brittain,
canada, as well as the u.s., seem to have flagged whelan for special attention. he regards himself as a hostage. >> i want to tell the world that i'm a victim of political kidnap and ransom. there's obviously no credibility to the situation. this is retaliation for sanctions. there is absolutely no legitimacy. >> it's been speculated maria, a russian gun rights activists imprisoned in the u.s. for acting as a foreign agent could be swapped. the russian arms dealer dubbed the merchant of death, sentenced in the u.s. to 25 years behind bars. earlier this week, the russian foreign ministry raised yet another possibility that this man, constantine, convicted in a drug smuggling conspiracy in 2011, could also be returned in exchange for any american national held in russia.
this so-called small step, as the russians phrased it, could be paul whelan's best hope of getting home soon. matthew chance, cnn moscow. >> joining me now is paul whelan's brother, david. we appreciate you joining the show this morning. >> thanks for having me, jim. >> first i want to ask you what is the latest on your brother's condition, what do you know of it, is it getting worse? >> it's unchanged since the embassy raised its concern about his medical conditions. we don't really know. i think that's the issue here. the embassy has requested an e sternal doctor to be able to look at paul and to be able to assess his condition. one that can speak to him in english and communicate with him about what his health conditions are so we can get an actual assessment. right now that isn't happening. he's only getting a first aid level of help inside the prison. >> as you're aware, a russian official is raising the possibility of a quote, unquote, prisoner swap here, as we just
heard in the story leading in. your brother considers himself the victim of a political kidnap and ransom. would you support a trade, in effect, for your brother's freedom? >> i would support almost anything to get paul home, back to his family in michigan. i think deputy foreign minister's statement is a clear statement that paul is a political pawn and that they're hoping to extract some sort of value from the united states by trading him for something. and so whether that's a person, i don't know. or whether it's the properties that they mentioned, the two russian properties in the united states that were taken by the obama administration. i think the concern is that they trade for a fell on who is held in a prizer for a tourist in russia isn't a fair trade and put americans at risk for future swaps. >> does it incentivize it, i
suppose, is the worry. >> right. >> as you know, you've pleaded, your family has pleaded with president trump to help free your brother. president trump of course met just face to face at the g20. i was there with russian president putin. in none of the readouts did it say that president trump raised this issue directly with putin. i suppose it could have been in private. do you think he didn't confirm that he brought it up with the russian president? >> i'm surprised rather than disappointed. we know that paul's case has been escalating in the american government. my sister met with ambassador john bolton and so we know it had gotten to that level, that they're aware of paul's issue. and so we're assuming that it's being spoken about at secretary pompeo's level, perhaps at president trump's level. and to not have a public statement of support that paul is wrongfully detained in russia is hard to bear.
>> i hear you. final before i let you go, how is your family doing? i can only imagine having a loved one being held under these conditions, in effect as a political hostage here. how are you doing on this end? how are you handling it? >> it's a struggle. you never know what's going to happen. you wake up on monday morning and the deputy foreign minister is suggesting a swap. so you have highs and then lows when you figure out that there are realities that go along with that. >> we wish you the best and your brother the best and we hope there's a good outcome soon. thank you. >> thank you, jim. >> coming up democratic candidate for president, senator cory booker will join me live. how he plans to eliminate immigration detention at the southern border. he's got a plan coming up. t was so oily and greasy. but with olay regenerist whip spf 25, it's so lightweight. i love it. i'm busy philipps, and i'm fearless to face anything.
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joining me now is presidential candidate, cory booker. thank you. >> thank you. >> so your viewers are aware, you're plan will do a number of things, proposes to end family separations, expand daca protections, decriminalize border crossings, accept for refugees. i wond just briefly here, how would this address the rising influx of asylum seekers at the border. >> part of the plan is actually a focus on the northern triangle countries. appoint a special envoi to work with our regional part nurse to start doing the opposite of what donald trump is doing. he is literally pulling back resources from those countries. we need to not only lean in, but we need to work with our area partners to stop the root cause that's pushing people to come to the northern border. remember, this is a crisis that donald trump has created through executive action, not through the things that congress has done. he started and created a crisis
with executive action, i will end it with executive action. doing things that reflect our values. right now as we speak, there are expecting mothers, nursing moms, elderly folks, being held in detention unnecessarily, doing permanent damage to children, literally donald trump's only administration reports are talking about the permanent damage they're doing to kids. we have had lots of examples of lower cost things that we can do that have more effective means with which dealing with immigration and that don't violate our values and permanently harm vulnerable people. we have the capacity. >> we have the deputy commissioner on last hour and he said if these accounts are true, that there will be consequences. let's drill down more deeply on some of your proposals. you support decriminalized border crossings. i wonder just for folks at home, why shouldn't it be a crime for people to enter the country or
attempt to illegally? >> it's do it from a very selfish perspective. that's a far more expensive way to deal with it. it sucks up a tremendous amount of our law enforcement reforces when they need them to be targeting on and focusing on the real threats to our nation. by dealing with it in the civil courts like the american bar association and american pediatrics academy, others show that we can do this in a way that keeps us safe and has a higher rate, legal representation has a higher rate, 100% rate of people staying in the system and showing up for their court dates. this is donald trump's tough bluster, trying to criminalize people, sucking our resources and taking away law enforcement for doing the things that they should do, focusing on people that are really no threat to us. and if we create a really supportive system, they will stay there, they'll go through their court cases and be evaluated on whether they need
asylum or qualify to stay in our nation. >> okay. another proposal, your plan would effectively virtually eliminate the detention centers and we're well aware of the sometimes horrible conditions that are being reported by some of your fellow lawmakers who have gone down to witness, but also others, outsiders. i'm curious, as the numbers jump of asylum seekers, it was up some 30,000 from this time last year, where will those asylum seekers go if those holding facilities are gone? >> somebody who has gone down to the border and met with asylum seekers and visited these horrible prisons that should not exist, literally these are folks that often lobby the federal government for these policies that help them to create a profit off of the imprisonment of others. again, so many of these people that are coming through the system, they need an effective evaluation, do they pose immediate threat. but we do not need to be doing what the trump administration has done, a 40% increase in these detentions of people that
pose no threat and that we have evidenced-based measures to ensure that they continue to work through the process of asylum. we are a nation based upon this ideal. we literally have asylum laws that are being violate by this administration because people are not being able to present themselves for asylum. they're violating the florez decision. we need to end the profiting off of people's incarceration and treat people with human rights that are not surrendered when they come to our border. >> let's talk about another issue, because this kind of combines two of the biggest issues in the 2020 cycle, both immigration and health care. you, as several of your fellow competitors for the democratic nomination, support government funded health care for undocumented immigrants. now, if we look at the polling, that is supported by a majority of democratic voters, but independent voters by a two to
one margin, 63%, they say no. of course most republicans against it. one, why should people who enter the country illegally get taxpayer funded supported health care, and are you concerned that as a candidate here in the primaries, you're staking out such a progressive position that will damage you or another democratic candidate in the general election? >> first of all, this is not a progressive decision. it's a common sense thing. i was the chief executive of a city. do i want someone who gets sick with a potential communicable ill inne illness to not be able to go to a hospital and get treated, to potentially affect others. do i want kids to not get vaccinated that are in my country? we've got to have some common sense. we may think that shutting off people to any kind of access to health care is some kind of stuff stance but it endansers our populations if we don't have
some pathway for people getting some kind of support. that's why when i was mayor of the city of new york, when it comes to policing services, hospital services, undocumented immigrants are part of our community and they have access to those things. we have a president right now that is enforcing things that make us less safe not only in a health care way but in a criminal capacity because now we have an environment where people are afraid to report crimes, because if they come forward because of a program 287 g, they will be subject to deportation. let's not make this a partisan issue, let's make it a kpon sense issue. >> before i get you go, two of your competitors have recently released numbers, pete buttigieg, nearly $25 million in this most recent quarter. bernie sanders, $18 million. can you give us a sense of where your fundraising will be in that crucial second quarter? you're locked in a very competitive race here. >> yeah, i'm very excited that we're still in the top six of the people for the nomination
for our party. we released yesterday -- since the debate and people got to see me, 20 million americans plus, we've been enjoying our best fundraising week we've had in a long time. >> how about for the quarter? >> we'll announce the quarter numbers very soon. i'll tell you, some people have been going to cory booker kado u mean, people who believe in my debate, and people who saw my performance on the debate stage. we're seeing a lot of me men tum and i hope people will help by keeping my voice in the primary. >> good luck. good to have you on the program. >> thank you. do. that's why netflix is on us. and here's another reason to join. bring in your discount, and we'll match it. that's right. t-mobile will match your discount.
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. today the u.s. women's soccer team faces england, fighting for a spot in the world cup final. but there is a controversy ahead of this epic sports show down. amanda davies joins me now from france. england's coach is accusing the u.s. team of spying. is there anything behind this? tell us what the story is. >> yeah, jim. i'm not going to use on television that the england boss used to me to describe his feeling towards the two u.s. team representatives who were spotted going into the england hotel when his side were away training. they say they were there scouting out the hotel as a possible new base if they knock england out in just a few hours' time. the u.s. coach, very much played it down, but publicly i have to say it was pretty damning. he says he feels it's just -- he
said it will absolutely zero impact on the bearing of the match, but it adds an el element of spying, which has got the defending champions, the favorites, the usa, up against the pretenders for the crown looking for their first ever world cup final. and across the board we've got the tournaments' three top goal scorers on the field. england has ellen white. and the usa have alex morgan and megan rapinoe all with five goals each. today is morgan's 30th birthday. she says she does not care who scores the goals, as long as it's the usa. she said birthdays come once a year but a world cup is only every four. it's all about the business. and jim, this is a world cup that has broken television audiences for the women's game so far over the last couple of weeks. the number have been incredible. if there's any u.s. fans worried
about how they're going to watch with the afternoon kickoff, they've been given a little bit of help from a couple of the players who have drafted a note to give to their bosses, saying do you want to be the boss of the year? please give your employees the day off. i mean, how can any boss refuse that? well, i'll be watching for sure myself, amanda davis. thanks very much. thanks to you for joining us today. i'm jim chute oh. kate baldwin starts right now. >> hello everyone, i'm kate baldwin. thanks so much for joining me. first up, a breaking brand spanking new poll from the all-important first in the nation state of iowa. let me show you this. the new usa today poll shows that joe biden is still in the lead with likely democratic caucusgoers at 44%. but the lead has taken a big heat. kamala harris s