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tv   Key Capitol Hill Hearings  CSPAN  May 24, 2014 2:00am-4:01am EDT

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this is a little less than an hour and a half. >> thank you for joining us on the heritage foundation. and also those joining us to website. if you would be so kind to check
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the cell phones before we begin to see if they have been turned off, we will appreciate it. our panelists are here and we would think presdient vladimir putin. we have the focus on u.s. government institution and programs for strategic outreach to the public a foreign countries as well as more traditional diplomacy. she is a fellow at the hoover institution and serves on the board on political journalism and the center for free inquiry at hanover college and is a member of the council on foreign relations. please join me in welcoming helle dale. [applause] >> we are here to talk about the ukraine and today we will be looking at the elections in the presidential elections coming up on sunday.
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these are quite contested, it is a subject that are three analysts who cover from a number of perspectives, one of which i am sure whether they will take place at all. there are some in the ukraine and in eastern ukraine the first speaker is going to be janusz bugajski. he is welcomed and it is great to have you back. >> thank you for having me. >> janusz bugajski is a jack of all trades and he has his own television show. the janusz bugajski show. and he has written no less than 19 bucks on europe, russia, and
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the trans-atlantic relationship. and i would just give you the title of his most recent book his most recent one is conflict zones, the western balkans compared. in our next speaker will be ariel cohen. he is the senior research fellow in russian and eurasian studies and international elegy energy policy and national defense policy here at the heritage foundation. ariel cohen has served as a consultant to the executive branch and private vector with russia and central europe and central asia. finally speaking today and
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authentic ukrainian perspective, we are very lucky to have her as a visiting fellow hear the heritage foundation. she is a core fellow at the center for international trade and economics. she was previously at the institute of economic research and policy at the national university of tf. without further ado, we thank you. please stand if you feel more comfortable. >> i feel comfortable. i will go handstand. why not. >> okay, thank you so much for inviting me. it's always good to be here. it has been a few years since i last spoke and i think it was about russia at that time as well.
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and there's a lot to say in 10 minutes and so little time to do it, so i will be his reach as possible and as concise as possible. what i would like to do is briefly outline for things, moscow's objectives, its fears, it solutions and its options. and we are going to talk about this and have questions and answers. but do let me focus on what i think russia is up to. and i think that moscow's top priority is the integration of the former soviet republics and this includes a security pact with and something called the eurasian movement. the unit itself is supposed to consolidate russia's position as a major poll of power and russia
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believes that we are thereby challenging the united states and the yukon untrained ukraine is a critical component. as it would protect russia's power into central europe as a whole and will give them a strong european component. without ukraine the eurasia union becomes more of an asian construct. and so without the ukraine, as i said, it will be fairly limited structure. and i think that the big fear with a victory of a pro-western
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president in a pro-western parliamentary elections that will be part of the european union and the united states. this would seriously damage russia's agenda in assembling this eurasia union and it may challenge the system, including those to you join the eurasia union. success could become part of this. this includes own political
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survival as well as the territory integrity itself. there is a fear that it could pull some regions of eurasia away from the center. and moscow solutions for the ukraine. i think that moscow has pursued for different plans. in this includes the eurasia union and this is clearly something that has failed in the commitment to the european perspective. in the kremlin thinks that this is also failed because of the
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association agreement. >> second of all a divided ukraine with a separate east fully dependent on russia, this has its advantages from moscow but also different costs as i will come to in a few minutes. and windy, which i think is an unstable ukraine unable to qualify for the eu or nato and basically remains in this peripheral position on the edge of europe. i think moscow's objections are clear.
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first of all the political option. wait until we western innovations of sides were slows down from crimea, including russia's partition of georgia and claiming that the may elections were illegitimate or partly legitimate, seeking a commitment to federalization in the ukrainian constitution which means a divided state with blocks and prevents for making progress towards the eu. it is clearly rejected with any kind of referendum or federalization plan along moscow's lines and second option, the territorial option, proxy separatism has been promoted by moscow to test the prospects for division.
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the special forces have included several regions to engineer conflict and establish secessionist government. the kremlin has been testing one of two alternatives. creating a split state much like this in which fully autonomous regions block government decision-making or the ukraine's further partition and partial absorption by russia and the continuation of the crimean scenario. however, a military takeover and occupation of the ukraine would be very costly for moscow. and it could actually deflate the national imperialist euphoria that we have witnessed among segments since the absorption and the annexation of crimea. additionally the attempted separatist scenario has registered very limited success.
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in this includes the opinion of the separatist. opinion polls clearly indicate that under a small minority of the population, they support other federalization or let alone outright secession. the third option is destabilization. in the absence of sufficient public enthusiasm, vladimir putin may provoke violent conflict which would necessitate russia's peacemaking intervention. this would be an invasion and it is conceivable that these may favor the restoration of law and order by outside forces is chaos is instigated in this tf cannot
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exert its authority. russian peacekeepers may be seen as the lesser of two evils always temporarily, but this is extremely risky for russia because i'm sure that it provokes significant armed resistance outside of these two regions. it will be seen as an outright invasion and condemned by the international community. my last option, which is the subversion option, which is a longer-term strategy having failed largely in the separatist option on the political option, i think it is reminiscent of the scenario. it was in tail corruption of the ukraine officials and making do with local oligarchs and creating political divisions and waiting for the economic downturn to bite as the ukrainians undertake major social and regional changes.
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this includes unrest and other forms of subversion while simultaneously drawing the country closer to russia through various incentives such as jesus he supplies. at the same time, of course, western sanctions against moscow will be largely lifted and raised in western capitals for not pursuing the military option will they continue with the shadow war and in conclusion it is imperative not only for the ukraine to hold these elections in these later in the year, but for the new ukrainian administration to conduct effective structural and fiscal reform sufficient to public support and move closer to western institutions and maintain sufficient national
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cohesion during this process and resist the temptation that is certain to come from moscow over the coming months and years. and i hadn't gone into the recommendations of what we should be doing at, but maybe we can do that a little bit later. thank you so much. [applause] >> good morning. as was outlined, quite a number of aspects of russian policy, and of course at the top about russia for hours, i would like to put the elections in the ukraine and perspective of your and what a challenge it is to the european security and global
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security and i firmly believe that we are witnessing a pivotal transformation of the post-cold war time. this comes from from the believes that europe is weak and that the united states is not providing the necessary leadership and this is the time to challenge for the next 2.5 years to challenge the world order as was taken over in 1999. this is a challenge not just to reformat and configure this and make russia a strong pull, but
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to bring down the relative power in that equilibrium in this includes the rise in india that russia is a part of area so putting it in a european perspective, what do we have? well, we have the sanctity in europe that were guaranteed by the 1975 helsinki accords and it was interested in securing and providing the baltic states that were recognized and they were recognized as a part of the soviet union and east european countries were also recognized.
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they will not be changed in europe through violence or he annexed the protocol of 1990 and then the budapest protocol. it includes nuclear weapons that it inherited from the soviet union. today, of course, went all of these instruments of international law or violated, this is very little that they have that they are doing, recognizing the change that russia is imposing through all of the tools in its foreign policy toolbox. in the military action that
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pioneered a whole new type of warfare that is relying on special forces that are not easily identifiable with the military of the country that they sent these guys to take over a big swath of territory. and also the use of militias that are trained and sometimes led, as we saw in eastern ukraine. as especially mass media and propaganda. this includes nationalist like the president of ukraine and
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others. petro poroshenko, basically liberals and liberal nationalist painted as fascist or not these sympathizers and painting it as neo-nazi. and that, of course, that drives this wedge between the ukrainians. and the public opinion. i just came back from london last week. it demonstrated to me the lack of interest in supporting the ukraine, which i would expect because of the massive business relationship is in german utility on the russian gas in the relationship between the
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former chancellor with mr. vladimir putin in his capacity. in this includes a pipeline company. and this having sort of a imperial phantom pain or conflict, and let's not intervened with the ukraine. so you can go back and the russians do rhetorically go 300 years back saying that our country is still smarting from the diffuse of this in the 18th century, including the partition of poland. and it's no wonder that they are
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trying to fight this war and use the ukrainians as a battering ram and activists as fodder against russia. this is essentially the repeat of the moscow talking points and there are people who are willing to repeat these talking points, unfortunately. for the u.s. is obligated. first we have the first post your presidency. i don't think mr. obama has any particular affinity or warm place in
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and so the u.s. is now deliberating whether the first wave of sanctions is primarily personal, if they are sufficient, the fact that moscow did not invade, someone saying that this is a great achievement of the u.s. and european policy and yes, angela merkel did intervene in this language and she understands german. and she speaks russian and the fact that this is a plus. however as i mentioned before, the whole new toolbox, the whole new pattern of engagement that includes propaganda and economic
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pressure, and includes the price of gas for the ukraine now after the viktor yanukovich and glamour to the agreement, the price was in the 270 ridge notes for 86. the highest in europe for natural gas. and when we give money to the ukraine, the imf deal out in the european bailout, that is a good chunk of this money that will go to the treasury in moscow to pay for that. it kind of perverse way of doing business here. and so must we send a very strong message and have a policy commitment that goes beyond this, the ukraine is only the first stage in this reconfiguration of the power
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balance in europe and also in the world and what happened in terms of the post-cold war arrangement and even post-world war ii arrangement, one the protection, or people who speak the same language or come from the same ethnic stock as you, sure it is permissible as a reason to intervene military wise. what if china decides that the same approach can apply to taiwan or two other places where overseas chinese live? would not allow the government to send the british navy to protect english-speaking south africans? south africans, some of them do speak english. but yes, people spoke that
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language in the crimea as well. and so does it mean that russia can say now the russian navy can be sent to new york with the russian speaking population there? but where do you draw the line? and i think that the europeans need to recognize the commitment to the ukraine and it should include this today, the day after tomorrow, any of them, but if you can bring albania and a survey into the european union. and you would expect the europeans to revisit their military budgets and i was told
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that the uk and estonia and greece have a military budget of 2% of gdp and we have 3.5% of the debt range of gdp. and europe needs to wake up and understand that this military welfare that we receive from the united states cannot continue and in terms of the ukrainian policy after the election, a lot of folks expecting petro poroshenko to be in the first-round or first round or the second round, but there is a lot of things that petro poroshenko has to do if it is him. whoever the next president he or she needs to do. there are speculations in the media up to $100 billion where
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it was either exported or laundered by the viktor yanukovich people and his family and his business associates, even if it's half of that in the country and it is a tremendous amount. economic reform, i am part of the business council cochair for that section of the u.s. policy guideline. and the prescriptions are there and this is something that the ukraine needs to do. and they made the economy less dependent on energy and to make
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it more transparent, to make this more transparent, increase tolerate the fighting corruption, streamlining regulation and etc. the security forces demonstrated that they cannot control the territory of the state. this is a sign and a symptom of a failing state. if they cannot deal with the hundreds or thousands of separate tests in the eastern ukraine area led by maybe a few hundred russian operatives, it is clear that we need to be a serious reform with modernization and armed services and people who connected to moscow and took money from foreign countries with the services. finally the ukraine will have to
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find the right way to bounce the language issues and culture issues with people of the east. i'm not here to give prescriptions, but the issues like language that russia exploited they need to be addressed and everyone needs to understand where people stand. and the german intelligence already leaked a couple of reports what they are doing in bulgaria. the president of the area went out and made a very alarming speech about what the russians are doing in that country and that's just the beginning. central and eastern european countries that their governments as well as focusing on the baltic states.
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it is good that we have some troops, there will be 600 marines rotating in and out of eastern europe including the baltic states and that is very much a signal that a weak signal. so to deal with local separatists or people who are funded by foreign governments should be a priority vote for the security services of those countries and foreign media who has to be careful how they filter and how they analyze and understand different messages. because russia is interested in building a nuclear reaction there and there is a lot of
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reports about somebody paying the environmental activists to fight against this as an alternative source of energy. the ukraine desperately needs to diversify its net energy sources, including, for example, bringing liquid natural gas and to the south of ukraine from sources other than russia. russia, turkey, some are not allowing out right now and this is a thing that the u.s. government addressed to convince our turkish nato allies to give a hand to the ukraine in a period of this crisis and a security crisis. so things like that are creative policies showing ukrainian independence combined with a clear commitment by the new leadership that will be elected
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to get back on its feet and make it modern and make it transparent and make it transparent for domestic investment and then god willing we will be in a better world. thank you so much. [applause] >> thank you and over to you. >> good morning. i just wanted to give you a picture of the general elections in ukraine and the people who rely on these elections and what are their objectives and who are these people. and so as you know, the presidential elections in ukraine are going on. and the debate of the elections was decided back in february of this year and what happen now.
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still all of this is an advance of the agenda that was very different. so there is a kind of dilemma in the ukraine because the process was to have and it has better if economic structure. and on the other hand there are some in politics as we like to call them. so there are people [inaudible]
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and there is one individual used to be the prime minister. the latest polls show that they have a first-round of elections and they have only 10% of the votes and then she is in second place after him. also the list of the candidates of possibility are quite long. and two of them are actually
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[inaudible] and these two people are quite opposite. only about 3% according to these polls. and she helped to organize all of this including the help of the hospitals to help people. and her popularity has expanded in these parts. and then we have the leader of the radical group. [inaudible] and now they have tried to get political votes.
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and this includes peace will come and when you need reform, you sometimes need people to inform that to your people in the country. and this other person only has 1% of votes according to parliamentary polls. this includes the former president of the ukraine. now they seem very disappointed or lost and they don't know really who to vote for they are full of apathy and do not know how they should vote in this election.
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>> this includes the control of all these checkpoints and also in crimea, the people from crimea can travel to the border and vote there.
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and these people travel outside to vote this sunday, they could be pursued as traders order knowing too much for ukrainians. and so they could lose their homes and be disconnected to their families area and this includes the possibility that they may not come back. and there are a lot of obstacles to this election. with all of the issues that are going to be raised, the main
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issue when we started this economic issues that surround of economic reforms. and as we know it was very much interrupted. the agenda has perfected this with people's lives and there was an incident in the ukraine and to get better prepared they
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have this russian or prescient team and so there was a big loss during all of this and this includes the new president to do something about this and to understand it properly and actually also be oral elections that take place in odessa and when it comes to elections, a lot of these are the center of the projects where the voting takes ways.
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similar ways to vote in the ukraine for example, the way that the last elections went. and this includes determining the european stands on ukrainian individuals. there are situations that can provide us with some of this information. this includes the european far right. to these elections could actually lead to the far right partisan european parliament. and we could change this into less support for the european union. so thank you.
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[applause] >> if i could just as the first question here of you, what you hear from home? from your family and your friends. how strongly people feel about the importance of this election after all of this has happened since last november with the protest and how do people feel about it? are they nervous or determined and what is the mood? [inaudible] >> well, this is some expect the elections wring more promise than the last ones are the turnaround is supposed to be the highest in the previous 10 years because people are really wanting to take part in these
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elections. and usually the younger people are not as active in elections and politics. and this includes young people they were candidates and they were demanding from the candidates to publish this to make this publicly accessible. and so they hold this new person and a great new light. they hope that they will be able to provide a great future and protect us going forward. >> thank you. that sounds like a good sign.
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those who have a question, please identify yourself by your name and your affiliation. yes, we have one in the back there. >> hello, i am from a japanese trading company and i would like to ask a question about fiction and what we could expect in the next phase. in this includes sanctions towards israel and other companies and there are a lot of topics on how the next phase may cover certain industries and we want to see what conditions would have to be there under entire sanctions.
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can you give us some indications of how that might go next phase. >> we keep hearing from our administration and from him european governments about desperation. it does not mean that russia can keep crimea but not attacked us and ukraine, does that mean that it can continue to disrupt clandestine proxies in the ukrainian state as long as it doesn't go directly? i'm not clear about the objectives being specified. that being said, the sanctions being implemented thus far are limited. i wouldn't say if they haven't had an impact. in some places they have had an impact. in terms of targeting some
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individuals in the south see interest. and i think that russia is probably trying to avoid these with these frequent decorations, this includes presumably russian business and energy sectors in beijing financial services, and other exports. the question is will we be able to get on ration with europeans involved. it has not so much on global but has titus into its economic transactions and economic networks and web. western energy companies in western banks, we thought that
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we were giving for 10 years that we would sort of civilizing civilize it and make it more democratic and less imperial. and it actually had the opposite effect. even if we have it now right. but i wouldn't take it off the table. one of the things in the options that i specified is that it can wreak so much chaos as it through terrorism and sabotage and political disruption, infrastructure breakdown, blockages of and all sorts of things that they could do in a certain part of eastern ukraine and then they come on this humanitarian peacekeeping mission to restore that, at that
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point we have to consider what would be the reaction of the section. so we turn it over. >> the extent to which is business does not have sanctions has been demonstrated today. angela merkel, after all the criticism, i am told by she was the guest of the big german energy company that is a major partner of russian energy. and that tells me a lot. the leader of the most powerful country in europe gave a speech about how business needs to be
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expanded. and so the compromise looks like this. there will be no full-scale military invasion 20th century style into the ukraine because the russians came to a conclusion that they have the most powerful tools and laments to influence ukrainian politics. more powerful than europe and they assess that correctly that the two principal leaders will not pursue a confrontation and incurring a prize from russia
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with russia's ability to pay. but at the same time i will not put it past the germans to repeat their positions back 2008 and i was not too surprised that the signals are going to moscow but they will acquiesce to this and i just gave us two days ago a presentation to a bunch of america's military officers and which ones i clearly they are going to keep this in the crimea. well, it's not a bad deal. he didn't lose any people there. you took it, he bluffed and put some troops on the border and as
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i've pointed out before, it is a process. and if we don't include the sanctions, the sanctions by the u.s. alone without europe, let alone without china or japan or other principal russian trading partners, the u.s. visit by russian oil, russian oil is traded in global markets. russian gas goes to europe and then will increasingly be sold to china. so yes, if we could disrupt the banking payments in mess of the finances that we did, don't forget this is a country that survived the war to which they
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lost 5 million people. seventy-four years of sanctions. and i don't think that this is really serious.
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>> this administration is doing their best. i think because of leadership from behind, they assume that countries make their own decisions and they assume that a nuclear power plants is one that can make a decision on their own. before ukraine, on the record
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not once but twice opposing the sale of this amphibious soldier and this includes the baltic sea and the pacific and it is clear that ships like that vastly increase the punch and the rapidity of deployment of expeditionary forces. the ex-commander of the russian black sea fleet said that if we had them as charlie would have done this in georgia in 2008. so the french want to include russian power production, they can go ahead with that and we probably will express our regret
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or concern beyond that. >> what we are talking about is the 21st century version and it is sort of 21st century version and i think it is indicative of not only the lack of the short-term response but long-term strategy in terms of how to counter russia's new material project throughout europe and it's something that i think we have a strategy during the cold war to bring these countries to nato to expand the european union. and i think that we lost sight
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and we didn't complete the picture of the whole europe into these transatlantic structures and we were distracted by other events we withdrew as many respects from europe. a worse year but will is partly to blame because of the fact that it has been answering its own internal questions and it has lots of ocean wave paid attention and hasn't really paid attention to those neighbors and those can be extremely destabilizing to the central european project. so following up with what area with a, i am just wondering but what point we would draw a red line and stick to it and in other words is it an attack on this or how would german businesses react to a subversion of this population.
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this includes european union countries but i would not discount that they would be involved by the fact that they haven't been sufficiently or appropriately punished through his actions and act more boldly elsewhere. so russia may have swallowed crimea, but the mood amongst these individuals in particular is going to become increasingly anti-russian are already double amount than of the new amber being created, a jihadist in crimea and the possibility that russia would have expanded the insurgency. and so a lot of individuals are
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going to become militant, some of them have been hiding in syria. i'm sure they will increase with radical islam and the fight for national independence. because this is not traditional russian land. if you look as far back as history, russia has bitten off something that will increasingly poison is. >> is really quickly, besides the middle east as fun as militants, the russians may actually gain something they didn't think about, and that is a relationship between this and
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the religious orders in turkey. when push comes to shove they fight. they fought in the caucus is for 200 some years. and so there are currents and movements in the muslim world because the crimea talked about it not that long ago, there are people who are seriously thinking about it. and so because it is a small population, maybe it's not such a big deal, but they get some kind of resistance and i'm not sure if it's going to be very militant or not.
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thirty to 40% of them died and they do not harbor kind thoughts about the relationship with the russians. >> we have a question over here on the right. >> excellent presentation by all three panelists. i have a question in terms of semantics in all of this. ukraine in the past two months since crimea has been talking about the propaganda war, russia and its information, whether it is worth other correspondents around the world is just as informing the truth about the situation of what is happening and rightly so as pointed out, only two of them have any type
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of separatist type movements occurring in it. so how does the united states agrees in terms of optics, the new ukrainian president and the new ukrainian government after these particular elections? not so much so for the ukrainians themselves but also as a follow-up bastion to something that was asked earlier in terms of sanctions. if there are not enough, with what is enough? what should we be doing against labor putin and the russian government? >> you're absolutely right about this information and language use. everyone talks about pro-russian forces. what does that mean there are a
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lot of russians and ukraine that want to be part of the united ukrainian state. so to say this is very misleading and they have been aided and abetted and glamour of whom is trying to sort of deniability aspect, i'm not responsible, they did it, and so yes, it creeps into the language not to mention this whole fascism, anti-semitism, talked about how there has been some good articles with what has happened in russia in terms of the enticement of top again and the use of nationalism by
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russians. .. >> >> russian agents need to
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clean now go whole range of questions that need to be conducted that we should offer to the ukrainian government. secondly, even more importantly, actually to follow this up on its own own, probably defending the nato members along russia's borders, we started this but it is not enough. the troops need to be on the ground. as the russians come and lastly my last point, it is essential if we are serious what russia is set to and if we don't want to see a continuous repeat of the shadow war may need to begin
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the of putin regime we have to weaken the structure and help democratic alternative russia but also help the independence movements, the democratic sovereignty movements regions of russia that do not look to moscow as their savior. far from it they have seen the annexation of crimea as weakening federal funding for their region there is a lot of dissatisfaction along russia. external 82 can be concerned about the internal situation. democracy building is also building of a strong and democratic region that creates a real federation
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and in russia. russian federation is not a federation but is centralized and authoritarian structure there is no real federation. i think this should be part of the policy. >> that was quite an answer. [laughter] >>. >> maybe after words we can talk about what the gradients would like to see with the new president and what could they signal from us? >> in terms of our support, i would be encouraging to embrace the democratic elected leader, a support with conditionality
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how courageous -- the ukraine will collapse that we have seen that movie before in 2004, after that, the modernization of the us state for comprehensive political and economic reform is not an easy task. and so far maybe they are hiding something but the regular actors with the players in the political world do not strike necessarily as a great peters said economic reform. or people who can rearrange
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massive bureaucracies to make them transparent and not corrupt. it is a tall task. the ukraine needs had to have a consensus as a matter of national survival. leaders could have communicated that to their ukrainian counterparts. but really at the point if ukrainians will not do this work, any amount will be wasted or stolen or misallocated. the ukrainian diaspora needs to mobilize as i have not seen that before the recent defense with a little more of that but it is in order to implement the reforms that are necessary in the security apparatus in the
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military in the economic realm, and then at ukraine wasted 20 years. but there was no hard work and with the government branches that were necessary and they to push back on propaganda as neo-fascist. this is not helping the images of ukraine in europe or here. i think they're wretched narrative no question. >> but they are doing it.
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>> ukrainians are not really mobilize. >> with the government and ukraine headed similar because now as part of the constitution to make can power fall. says sen authoritarian leader. so now the president has limited control of the government and as president he will control and with those other social politics will still be controlled by
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the government they need to be approved. back in 2005 when the new president was elected between the president and prime minister one of the reasons to see their reform implemented that had nothing to do with political issues of who is more powerful to have more control and now with ukraine we can have a conversation pep but this society used to be a part of this collision so now with the ngo with politicians to
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bake them more accountable to implement this reform that people are pushing for so it depends from the civil society now to make the politicians to implement the idea or the goals. >> thank you. i am from japan. with the upcoming summit of something coming up next week may be to release a
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statement with the policies. do you think it would affect the policies against the ukraine? and could you explain how? >>. >> i am not shirt i understood exactly what you try to clarify in times of can you focus? >> with the pressure of the leaders what could affect president putin policies in
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the future. >> i am not sure there is currently pressure displayed to affect the change of behavior one of the things we talk about here is mr. putin said pfizer's made a calculation, jim would cost for russia to pay for parts of ukraine and estimates are tens of billions of dollars it is better not to occupy because russia would it not be able to pay for its. but in terms of pressure short of the major disruption such as the interbank transfers the
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admirers, i do not see the level of pressure that is in that area is that mr. putin and his entourage in his circle decided that this is of vital importance to russia. i have been to russia many times and have listened to the narrative by its many top levels come from the soviet system. there was no massive rejuvenation and they believe that nato is the strong organization and it calls to the russian borders they want to get ukraine into dado. -- and nato.
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and to believe that the era of spring type of civil unrest is instigated by the west through facebook and twitter and the internet and that the caa invented or runs the internet which i don't think is the case. there is a lot of monitoring all parts of the world but not necessarily buy that agency. what i am saying is to have a clear idea where the pressure points on the then apply decisive pressure if you want to shoot change somebody's behavior and even then there are no guarantees. those were under sanctions for a long time.
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i am not convinced it would change with a strategic commitment or a threshold states. to do with sanctions and certainly not on the level of rather weak pro-forma sanctions. >> i would just like to add the japanese prime minister raises the of the northern territories because it seems to be there are disputes that have not been resolved as being one of them. to heat up at various locations. i a agree that with sanctions we need clear objectives of nuclear weapons with self african sanctions with apartheid i
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am not sure of power of the objections we what someone to work with it does not make sense to me. the alternative is to weaken the regime to help the russian people to replace with the democratic alternative other rise to face problems for many years but i don't think they are here at the state's torrey in europe or japan. long term we don't have statesmen now. in the of western capitaññgszqy. we used to during the cold war but they are a dying breed and this is what they like to exploit. >> i think we will wrap
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[inaudible conversations] >> welcome to the council of foreign relations meeting i
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am the focal issue of the next generation of jews and media company with politics powered by twitter and how that has altered change in the social media and what is playing. great to have you today we will talk about the future we have a lot to cover. but we are focused on policy, and technology how they interact with to great people with us a lincoln professor of law culture and values joel garreau and from the new america foundation covering almost 40. covering society and culture and how things are changing
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in this country. also michael rogers is of former title futurist in residence. but i will ask each of them to give a quick one minute overview then to jump into the conversations then we will open to questions. first, joel garreau give me a sense when you have been working on with technology and policies. >> my area of interest is we are at an important point in history for the first time technology is not aimed at a word for the fashion of fire, clothes, space travel increasingly they are aimed at modifying our minds, memories and personalities and if you can do all that you are the
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first species to take control of your own evolution but right now on our watch with radical revolution the technologies that drive this our genetics robotics information in real and not just talking about the internet. >> one of the things i talk about now having worked with the of "washington post" and "the new york times" i have declared victory there. [laughter] i have moved on to other corporations with similar issues. it comes down to the fertilization of the world to move into a period of time that the best analogy is that lewis mumford wrote the natural history that he
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pointed out it happened very, very quickly to move to the city's and when we did it was the fundamental shift for several reasons. we needed new business models to propose the family groups we had. number to it took us one step away one step away of abstraction from the physical world. i think virtually station which is the creation of the virtual world running parallel to the physical world in which we live all of the time is of the next spade step after urbanization. but it means ultimately we will become all connected all the time to the virtual world 24 hours a day consciously through a new generation of devices or unconsciously through all of the objects and with
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urbanization transports society and our laws and that will be the same. >>host: that is a great place choose start. talking about the internet of things that everything is connected your refrigerator and everything else to tell you how to live your life. the general question is it a good thing for society? will reach get to a point very quickly there will be a major conflict that people say we have to stop this? said it is moving too fast or are things moving so quickly to adapt and it is coming and they will learn to live with these technologies? >> people are adopting more quickly than they used to
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but my clients would say it would take an entire generation to teach people to use the atm. they got the taking money out pretty quickly but putting the money into it takes about 20 years. and then matched it, i once interviewed one of the founders and what he would have done differently with online dating he said i would have invested much more earlier but he had no idea that online dating would go through something that was pretty weird to mainstream. and finally facebook. launched the 2006 college students and within five years the fastest-growing segment on facebook was women over 55 so it is the assimilation of the adoption rate. >> that is why it is no
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longer cool. [laughter] wait. cool for the teenagers because their mothers are on it. so they're moving to mobile technology. [laughter] >> nothing like being funded by your mom. >> that is a cultural point. so looking at that technology to are really looking at the new technologies that a generation just coming into adulthood that has never known life without the internet? that is a completely different thing than the 80 year-old, how does this technology change for kids today? will there be a rift between
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adults of all different ages and children? >> my interest is to we are and how we got that way and what makes us tick. i am not as big of a nerd is i may sound being a peer but i just walk up to is the technology didn't care about the pickier but one of the things that looks clear to me is technology moves faster than culture. everybody knows what i mean when it is clear of the accelerating change with the robotics. if the curved accelerating change goes up like this if the response is flat like waiting for house judiciary because it is a toast, i have the optimistic view to
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hope of responses also come up on the second curve but in the meantime i think the reason you see more and more social weirdness is tea-party take note. [laughter] i think the ground is moving beneath our feet. if anything it is increasing. i think when it moves beneath your feet and the st. primate's looks for something solid to hang onto. so you see buying simple narratives that sound right. all the of commentators all are offering simple narratives are probably wrong but something solid to hang onto and that is what worries me.
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we need to a accelerate. >>host: you use the phrase the next generation. >> even deal with venture capitalists with the 10 year a question for the fact is the millenials generation is the one that is growing up with technology.
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>> but maybe they have more tools than people who had not grown up with this technology and it is harder for them to adapt to be around the next few decades. >> i would be happy with the employer. [laughter] i don't know if they are adapting or if they care. i just want them out of my basement. [laughter] one is your in their gold happily employed. [laughter] and one of the things i am very worried about is what happens if this time it is different? though whole argument because the jobs were taken away because they went to
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this city's and blah, blah, blah. but there is loss of jobs and there is an awful lot of revolution anwr and dead people in the course and i can easily imagine. all politics is local says reporter and editor of the "washington post" them before the layoffs started there was no business model. with this happens to me again i will start to take this personal. [laughter] i am just very cognizant of the fact the last time we had 25 percent unemployment national socialism began to look good to a lot of people but of course, so does the new deal.
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but this could be some pretty heavy of people starting with the young. >> what role does government play? with those technology advances replacing so many jobs and so much money put into technologies that don't necessarily hired away a of a general motors or other companies did with similar market capitalization what does the government have to do to help people have jobs in the future? >> that is a very broad question from in, and distribution we may end up 30 years out with a class of people who have the lot of time on their hands and we don't know what to do with them. a second is to be more realistic about what jobs
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will continue in the future and which what i just finished working with a group that represents plumbers and electricians and heating and air-conditioning contractors. their problem is finding workers because united states focuses on everybody goes to the four year college those jobs are so easily automated or outsourced it is fictions and now look at the young lawyers partly because of the outsourcing and automation. soda contractors want to bring a message to the parents and legislators that these are good jobs. plummer cannot be automated or outsourced. one guy said to me my son's friends all went to college with the four year degree with $40,000 in debt living at home but the one to work
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for me is married and buying his first house with a kid. we have to be more realistic what jobs will really be there. >> coming out of the last 15 years that this was all going to be great and there is still a bunch of people who believe fat and a lot in the u.s. government. one thing to keep track of is just about all this change was financed by the u.s. government. he was a packager and a designer. and great don't get me wrong but every single technology in your phone was created by a the government from the touch screen from the gps, i
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am struck not yesterday's use by technology but they just launched a new directorate biological technologies office it is very rare to create a new director but the reason they finally did is they had so many biology programs that they finally had to create one place for it to you get all these things into one place. the get the web site and look at what they are doing. they are very optimistic when assessing says the program of 1,000 miles accused -- molecules.
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with the big biotechnology lab we have creatures that eat co2 to solve the of italy east climate change in the future but the way you do that is there are 27 clinical steps to go from carbon dioxide and they all occurred in nature. so you take the 27 steps and stitched them together and you have the crude equivalent. what darpa is working on with the living foundry's business is to create 1,000 novel molecules he said chile in the same way. and the list of what they work on is called prophecy.
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with biological and vulnerability which among others is meant to reverse aging. but check out the darpa web site. so with the reaction to all this is government thundered on dash funded so far. when it comes to the ethics of the technology those that are ahead of this is the navy. to give them than its of credit. they have the still autonomous robots that do not need a human to pull the trigger. these registers that enemy ship because the navy has this problem.
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said they have the a hard time to communicate so they're in the forefront to create the ethical robot will they succeed? i have no idea am i glad somebody is working on it? you bet. >>. >>host: i suppose the live site does not have everything. [laughter] but in the sense of things we are creating there it is practical use for madison and science that can help humanity that they could create molecule's they don't know what they will turn into. what role does the media have to shape opinions about these types of things? how important is there a media to shape opinion?
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with those cultural icons. >> we are going through a period now that the scientific journalism added is the technology you need to understand. but there are fewer and fewer places we have a big hole and i am not sure how to fill its. that was the golden age of journalism. when you are a monopoly i made it so much money headed is the church stage relationship so much money
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that they did not care what we did. he would not advertise for six months the he would come back so with amazing journalism way to do whatever we wanted. probably going back to seven days the first time the inspector of genetic engineering came up which is the underpinning this and to talk about the threat and possibilities. very thoughtfully reported that the craziness was stand down. i don't think there is an equivalent to day and we need to solve that problem. >> there has been a discussion about the size of government regulation and
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people say it needs to be smaller with a smaller government they don't create all of these advances and what role do they have to regulate the steve jobs' creation to do advance what the government has created? what role does government have said they are focused on that? and darpa is probably the most advanced. >> i think this subject is doomed. if you think that culture of moves slower than innovation then comes regulation in washington. you go to these conferences to solve these people to act
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as if it is possible. how you govern technology? fetid is how they talk about spending five or 10 years to regulate technologies that are already five or 10 years old. i see nothing good coming out of that. i am a congenital optimist so i hope what replaces the industrial age this rating what happens with human response? my hunch so way to do that is the bottom up type of way. the idea of top down is just not fast enough.
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so when i am very interested in when uc for example, do it yourself biology which is happening as a stitch stuff together for fun, i would be interested to see what kind of ethics and morals evolve a round that. i have a lot more optimism about the people who were doing it coming up with ways to make sure we don't destroy the human race. >> and then to take the bigger role with craft sourcing and so more croats sourcing and regulation. >> it depends what you mean
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by regulation. >> self regulation makes me nervous because it is not the little guy. but to say for example, within the united states the internet was large -- launched by a darpa but really a was professors with darpa money that invented this thing in the late '60s to see that an e-mail went from palo alto to los angeles. i knows these guys and they said if we had known what it would turn into we never would have built it the way we did it is unsecured and and over the next decade will be the rule of all on the internet. we were very laissez-faire
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with the internet and the virtual world which was a good thing for a while but now we have such powerful constituencies google, facebook interest that still do their best to keep the internet from being unregulated. that is the best thing about data retention and privacy going on in europe because they are not hindered by the enormous lobbying efforts of the united states with self regulations. >> i think the most interesting conversations going on with biology is in the sports arena. all technologies are always adapted by where we see the greatest competition. it is not too surprising talking about human enhancement cognition cognition, memory, aging, th ough whole deal.
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version and 2.o humans. but where this conversation is the most thoughtful is in the sports pages asking whether barry bonds shares go around with the times on his forehead for their best of his life because he is not the same of all the people whose records they broke. we have a new once, i mean to have a new ones conversation people just want to see spectacle. other people say is that moral? fall whole narrative behind sports is about human competition and to become more yourself. blah, blah, blah what happens if you are just a
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machine with the good pharmaceutical group? we have that conversation right now in the bottom-up way that is more smarter and interesting. >> may be aimed dash regulation but private a -- regulation. >> what if you mean by regulation? to decide what is okay and what is not of k and but i will buy a ticket for and what i want to come i don't expect to see human cloning any time soon it is possible but there is been such a revulsion to it so if you
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count that as is regulation i am optimistic. >> we don't think about that until we see examples of what they can do. for exports is the first place it have been to. but when specifics come along i am a little optimistic. >> let's open it up and invited audience members and please wait for the microphone. please keep your questions and comments concise to allow as many attendees as possible to speak. >> i am from the pew charitable trust. the web was also supported by the national science foundation not just darpa
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for commercial but the real question is to see either bottom-up for top-down regulation but there is of middle ground with the embryonic fertilization if you are familiar with that model is that is the way for the future? >> i never heard of it. >> it is mia institutional. >> the first test-tube baby was born in britain and the british had the commission and have developed the a human embryonic
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fertilization and other genetic issues that is made up of the public for that is very carefully selected and largely reflects the general ethics, if you will, of the british population and has kept up very well with the science and has changed with the science and is a model that we should take a look at more in the united states >> i am with the naval postgraduate school. i am impressed with what you are saying i grew up with parents you were way ahead of technology. the dilemma i find as human beings is j.j. is really hard. there was so wonderful
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article the house of rain the first thing it you lose is the easiest thing to keep going back to with a adaptation that is here. one that is terribly important is training people to tell stories. and we don't do that. that is not considered an important skill with the educational system but if you can how do they know what the alternatives are? they do worry about the mechanization in our lives and we have to rethink what people are paid to do. people were picking up stuff on the street the other day we really need people to do that. have to find a way to give people respect to d


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