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>> >> good afternoon. how was lunch? could. i am vice president for programs tear at the is to it is my pleasure to welcome you to the book form here to launch the book robert bryce entitled "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" and i would add more colorful. look at that. jumping off the page. "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" is is this box and quite possibly his best. he is relentlessly optimistic and subscribes to
the basic notion that america's best-- are ahead. in the era of environmental catastrophes and plagues and various other things on the front pages every day i pluses glad to read good news the promise of tomorrow rest of the fact we are continuing to innovate to make things what do you think? "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" and as he would explain the doomsday people are promulgating the etf collapse that the future is a scarcity end shortage but by every measure out there things are getting better. people are living longer and healthy and free lives but we still have these people out there and you know,
some of them advocating for policies in america that we are reminded that is a day growth so to hear about that the president's science adviser from greenpeace but robert points out for offers an alternative vision for america's future, a positive one to do more with less than to grow the pie rather than russian. wabash rationed it. he seems to answer to questions. y e and how do we keep this going? that it will end soon he wants to see the good times continue to roll. i am sure his talk will focus on these questions and offers of pretty simple answer we continue to innovate by making things "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" i hope that
was in the right order. it was not a blind celebration of technological advancements the talking heads there we will solve our way out of the problem with a few technologies. it is a showcase of the actual innovations, they're real people, the physical companies doing the actual stuff you go to panama panama, canada to go or around the world to see what is happening. , all of these things this innovation is underpinned ultimately buy cheap and abundant reliable energy. it is that the court to keep our society healthy three strong and in this way the book is a natural complement to the work at the institute center for energy policy with the environment to drive home the message over
again. cheap and abundant reliable energy needed to continue the american way of life. he is joined by senior fellows and together they educate americans and how do we continue to have more of that energy? robert joined the institute in 2010 publishing his fourth book power paunch. -- power lunch. the "wall street journal" called it precisely the type of journalism to whole truth to power he had three books before that he makes it accessible and makes it fun comment pipe dreams 2002, cronies in 2004, and my favorite gusher of lies
2008. [laughter] robert is all over the place. 20 tv interviews in the last 48 hours. he is being modest. bbc, cnn, npr, pbs just put the three letter acronyms he has been on all of them. he frequently authors' original research and hits issues to debunk wind energy policy and the subsidies to questions such as energy poverty. yes us b.f. a from a university of texas austin please join me to welcome robert bryce i'll peter to the institute. [applause] >> good afternoon.
i have four points to make and i will make them in 20 minutes. first, gee whiz and second slouching toward dystopia. do the math. and finally the second american century. gee whiz. this smart phone has 250,000 tons of digital storage capacity of the computer that went to the moon on board with apollo 11. the i pods and no contains as much music as 300 records in musical terms that is 2,000 times more efficient
by weight and 6,000 times more efficient by volume than the record. 1980 photovoltaic cost more than $20 a what to do this and $1. 1903 the wright brothers pioneered aviation by flying an airplane at 30 miles per hour today we routinely fly on board 737 that fly at more than 500 miles per hour. and we can drink beer and surf the internet while we do it. ford's new engine that is fascinating to three cylinders developed during the alan mulally tenure and produces 92,000 watts per liter of displacement. the power density metric 16 times more powerful than the engine that powered the original model t. and also has the do ego
boost engine with the same power density as the engine in the new super car that cost 1.2 million dollars yet ford is selling this new car and hundreds of thousands of these engines in a ford fiesta that cost about $15,000. since 1978 until has been increasing computer power density on top-of-the-line chip since 1978. it has increased the computing power density 78 thousandfold while decreasing the size of the circuits 130 fold. intel now uses nanometer technology, a 22 billionths of a meter. i don't know how many angels can dance on the head of a pin but according to the intel latest processing technology they can put
6 million transistors on the tip of this pin. "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" with everything. what is the book about? a rebuke to how continuing innovation is improving living standards all over the world. we are inundated with bad news if it believes it leads on the newspapers or television. and for years or for centuries we have heard about the possibility of mass starvation like pete boyle any threats or epidemics or pandemic says. there is no question. we have the myriad of problems to just explain a few of them. yes we face many challenges.
crimea, damascus, a cyberwar and millions or billions of people living in poverty. in india alone 400 million people are living today without electricity. but smaller computers computers, faster communications, with cheaper everything from sanitation and madison has created of revolution of living standards all over the world. we see incredible increases of education and trade and development of the world regardless of their political system because that is what every do. we are not going to sit around and freeze in the dark we will innovate and we will do so and continue to do so. today more people live longer for your lives than
any other time in human history. since the '70s the country's consider freeing is doubling the income levels are steadily rising and literacy rates particularly among women and children are rising. in 1950 roughly 55 percent of all adults on the planet were literate, today it is close to 90%. one century ago few women were allowed to vote but today with a few exceptions women are allowed to vote than do in nearly every country on the planet. in the london games for the first time all of the countries participating had women on their teams and they participated. today prejudice is based on race, gender and sexual preference are cast aside. finally because of the
things i just discussed cheaper faster communication more available computing they're all forces for could demand for a change. slouching to dystopia of a bike trip knowledge a few people first my friend and editor lisa, please stand. [applause] i have had an unusual career in publishing by publishing five books and publishing and the same editor for all five did lisa has a unique genius to breed and 90,000 word manuscript i think is perfect. [laughter] and she makes it more perfect. also emily who is here at
public affairs to be tireless to promote the over the last week they made rekeying of all media in new york city. [applause] also touche acknowledged my colleagues at the manhattan institute spending will whole career as a freelance journalist and affiliated with various publications for four years i have been the manhattan institute and did has been a remarkable adventure to be engaged with the smart people that want to do things that promotes economic growth and that has been a great opportunity for me. [applause] also like to favorite niece is are here.
and i could not be happier they are here. moving on. slouching toward it dystopia. for centuries in our literature in movies we have repeatedly been presented with visions of the gramm future and a grammar outlook with the ability to manage ourselves. from jonathan swift from gulliver's travels to a brave new world and planted the -- planet of the tapes roller ball, of blade runner 1982. wall e, hunger games 2008 and even the new lego movie. [laughter] we are bombarded -- bombarded of tales of the poison terrorists desperate pople.
this catastrophe is to view is presented routinely by the of biggest and most powerful environmental groups around the world. hated is that castastrophists view we are continually presented and with this news we are hit with the idea by the leading environmentalist we need the cure to revert back to nature to some kind of 40 acres and and you will set up with eddie arnold. [laughter] that going back is the way for word. but to be clear we see it in the book of genesis with the garden of eden the a.d. we have fallen from grace that we have lost even to return to nature is continuing we have seen.
1755 that we were given in the idea of the noble savage, one century later to talk about the joys of living as to wall bin to cultivate poverty like a garden and herb. this century after we have rachel carson and silent spring said edward abbey a writer who has become the star of the environmental literature in america. and since the time of rousseau, the famous essay on the principle of population which he said population growth is greater than the power to produce substance for man. 1968. paul ehrlich as stanford came out with the population
bomb a book published by the sierra club. he claimed the battle to feed all of humanity is over. with the 1970's hundreds of millions of people whose starved to death. consider this statement on nuclear energy the group said it would remain opposed to nuclear pending the development of adequate global policies to curb energy overuse and the unnecessary economic growth. [laughter] i repeat. curb energy over use and an unnecessary economic growth. of the castastrophists don't just want to stop unnecessary economic growth but to have no growth. this quotation from the most
famous environmentalists in america the economy has gone too large we need to start building them back down. the issa to once to shrink the economy of over developed countries the goal should be a steady system balanced with herbs -- earth's limits to restore the system is and in other words, in their view the way forward is to go backward. looking at said the growth proponents it is clear they want energy poverty. my third point, do the math. the founder of 350.org and coding carbonyl atmosphere great then 350 parts per million is not compatible with life on earth.
today the concentration is roughly 400 parts per gallon. he has been arrested at the white house for testing the keystone xl pipeline and starting elecampane choose start investments with higher john carver producers with endowments and is fond of saying do the math and 350.org has a documentary of that title. okay. do the math. in 2010 and the kid in a row we need to cut fossil fuel use by a factor of 20 over the next few decades. today we consume roughly 250 million barrels equivalent per day of floral caught -- of if we cut that by twentyfold if we go down teeeleven million barrels for the entire world. that is roughly the amount of energy now consumed by
the country of india. another metric today's global gasoline consumption is 22 million barrels per day. if we were to follow the mckibben prescription we would have to have cut gasoline consumption in half and they would not have any oil or natural gas or coal leftover for electricity, aviation, home heating oil industry. in 18 cantor global population was roughly 1 billion people. energy consumption was 10 million barrels equivalent per day nearly all of that came with the form of renewals. today we have 7 billion people our economy is orders of magnitude larger prey yet he wants us to return to energy consumption levels that dominated 200 years ago. the same man who caused the
hydrocarbon as a rogue forces. what is mckibben answer? of course, renewable energy that we have heard from sierra club, greenpeace, natural resources defense council and many other groups like them. but renewable energy again, do the math. and to forget the real and transportation energy just looked at electricity and do the math. over the past three decades demand has been increasing by tarot what hours per year roughly one do brazil being added every year for the last 30 years them look at the forecast the they are ill and relatively close
agreement they project another brazil electric demand going forward 25 years. of do the math. what would be required with that demand growth just for solar? i am bullish on solar i have solar panels on the roof of my house and i am opposed to all subsidies unless i am getting them. [laughter] i have 3200 lots of solar panels because am i stupid? the city paid two-thirds of the cost my neighbors say i love the panel's i say thank you. you paid for it. [laughter] it seems to take some shine off. [laughter] but if we only one to lead to incremental demand growth what would it require? we have to produce 450 tarot what hours -- terawatt hours every year.
solar and wind do the math. we did the math. the reality, the truth the simple math is that solar and wind energy cannot be incremental demand grows much less displace significant quantities of hydrocarbons. what we have been told repeatedly by the castastrophists is renewable star the answer that is the energy form of the past not the future. as i make clear in the book book, the future fuels our end to end new natural gas to a nuclear not that oil and coal are going away, they are not but if we are serious about climate change we will not solve it with solar panels on wal-mart stores in california. bill will not happen if we are serious then the path
toward this end to end natural gas to nuclear. my final point. the second american century. we are beginning a second american century because the u.s. does innovation better than any other country and are better at "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" than any other country and there is no one in second place within a mile of where we are. with other critical factors geography finance institutions that foster innovation and low-cost resources said it is clear the u.s. could scarcely be better positioned. i will gladly stipulate we have many problems. structural unemployment worries me. gridlock in washington in disgust me. excessive regulation and metal cost a department that
spends more than $500 billion per year by yet not has passed a financial audit. we have many, many challenges. when it comes to innovation no other country does it better and we can see that from the oil patch to silicon valley. the u.s. has less than 5% of the world's population but home to 40 percent of all the nobel prize winners. the u.s. is where they want to start and own their own businesses. every year i go to the south by southwest interactive festival representing the best of america. there were more than 30,000 people there and i thought it was great. all their promoting their new web site in did in the book there is a guy just wondering falls he was
carrying around a skateboard what is he doing? he and some friends were graduating created a company that as the electric skateboard and had regenerative braking it was a marvel of a technology and they put the components -- they printed the components of the 3-d printer and started their own company. americans are entrepreneurial. they want to be the man. not work for him. those that were blessed with favorable demographics that favor incubation more than any other in the world of with that we have cheap abundant reliable energy at a time the rest of the world in general does not. european steelmakers paid twice as much for steel in
four times as much for natural gas did in the united states. foreign investors in numerous other countries invest billions of dollars in the united states to take advantage of cheap energy available here. so let me draw this to a close. time for more anti-enthusiast. [laughter] we have to reject the castastrophists proponents and reject the pessimistic view of the future and to make the mistake it is a political battle if we follow the prescriptions put forward by the castastrophists we will end up creating said dystopia we keep hearing about paving
the countryside with wind turbines and planting with biofuels is the antithesis of the environmental protection. believe need had density. we should have a dance power source because those are the ideal with economic growth because they could afford environmental protection. we need optimism and of the new technology we need to harness the power of the atom and to make that a safer and cheaper and we are. we need to make energy cheaper for everyone on this planet because low-cost energy is the foundation of modern society. we need technology and economic growth because they bring tens of millions of
people into the ideas and freer and longer and healthier lives. optimistic to the point of idiocy. and that idiotic optimism that i retain comes from the human desire for "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper". thank you. [applause] i should tell you to stop. [laughter] there is uh microphone raise your hand.
>> what about energy shortages like role india or south america? all over the world people have a hard time putting two and two together and there will not go for high tech solutions i don't know if you can do low-tech solutions. >> that is a great question and solar energy makes a great deal of sense and even a small battery with some solar panels and some elli delights it changes their lives it truly is a breakthrough technologies so i am hopeful for this proliferation of low-cost solar that is off the grid. but to provide low-cost energy and clean burning
energy is critically important thing. look at india alone women and children are dying because of indoor air pollution because of low quality fuels. 1 million per year. what they need is a propane or butane but allowing that to happen requires this is the problem with electrification we need civil society convinced when they use electricity they will pay for it and the political operators want to provide it as a way to get more votes to have the billing systems in place they require civil society and it is hard. if i had the magic bullet i would do well right now.
>> have you come across any strategy for those who are over the top with wind power with the energy policies to forgo their fantasies. >> convincing people is the difficult proposition. make no mistake the lobby entities advocating for more solar and wind and the subsidies are very powerful but the only way i know to fight them to counter the arguments is to use math and physics to basic power density with simple division and addition i don't know
any other way other than basic math and physics. >> talk about people from india and africa unfortunately they are not educated like the manhattan institute and from the standpoint of cheaper energy what are the prospect -- prospects and what is the prospect. >> and to have people on the left manufacturing is coming
back mentioning that pakistan needs sandy egyptians that are now building fertilizer plants one in iowa and indiana. basf the chief executive recently told "the wall street journal" if they moved all chemical operations to the u.s. they would save $700 million per year in energy costs alone. the french steelmaking company just built the new steel mill in youngstown ohio. this foreign investment will continue coming even if natural gas prices rise somewhat it is still dramatically cheaper than it was always is in western europe. one of the reasons i am so
bullish is the abundance of natural gas was more ethylene production you name it. the value chain is creating all kinds of the fax in hotels and hospitality is the remarkable growth engine and i was that produced last fall at said he and his colleagues estimated the revolution that started six years ago is adding three percentage points to u.s. gdp five and $2 billion per year imagine with u.s. economy would soak like today without that what the unemployment numbers would look like without that. it is a remarkable story happening know where else we're perfectly positioned to take a vantage of shale.
>> when i was in college college, the nuclear plant supplied one-third of our power. what about technologically? >> my position on and nuclear even after fukushima and i have a chapter that save so little odd that after fukushima's the prospects have never been better. in my view when it comes to climate change if you're anti-co2 or nuclear you are pro darkness. [laughter] [applause] if you're anti-either you are in favor of blackouts. i am opposed do blackout's i am for cold air and air
just keep it the same? i don't want any change. >> i will respond with says. maybe not the right one to ask about this issue but my wife and i have come schooled our kids for much of their lives. what we have seen lately is a huge change in the opportunities for everyone not just home school but sno-cat, an academy opened online courses. the flattening is the educational system where students are interested in computer programming or my son taking calculus can take it on line does not have to go to the community college he can take it for free.
that is radical not just for the u.s. but all over the world and one of the reasons i am so incredibly hopeful. talk about faster cheaper education? absolutely. >> when i see measurements of economic freedom declining and if that continues canid overshadow the advantages? >> absolutely. of course. this is why is a battle that the u.s. is poised. and potential but yet when it comes to energy we have the effective lobby to follow the european model. are you kidding? he want to follow the european model even after
how damaging it has been for the european union in general? and the european union in general? i don't dispute that this is part of the reason why i wrote the book why the manhattan institute exist to promote this idea of economic growth as the engines of development it is up between how much government is the right amount? we need government no question but there has to be robust and arguments and motivation to make sure we have that economic growth and forces for liberty out there to keep the size of government in check to allow more economic growth. i am just going off.
[laughter] >> you might expand by what you mean by cheaper people or are likely to believe energy itself is cheaper to day than 70 years ago. it buys more but it has a higher cost for coal and gas. >> fair enough but the point that i make is today, born in 1960 in real dollar terms residential electricity is 40% cheaper that is a remarkable development. yes some things are getting worse we have seen it fairly flat over time with the cost of gasoline but it has been flat since the '70s.
people discount that but it may be $3 in real terms but the engines are more efficient so we get more power out of the energy we consume why is that? "smaller faster lighter denser cheaper" it is what we do. >> the "wall street journal" reported something more than $3? and consumer prices and the your city exceed 23 or $25 even higher in boston. with that natural pipeline into a new york city and boston and so what sort of obstacles is going on now to get the very expensive product to new york city?
but what r.c. obstacles? why is there no construction or activity? >> there has been a pipeline built within the last 18 months was finished by specter energy. it costs nearly $1 billion. and they fought it to san nail they do not want their natural gas piped into a new york city that was hydraulic fractured but as soon as that pipeline was completed i heard the price of natural gas that day filled by several dollars. new york is problematic with any type of infrastructure
but add the fact the public has been conditioned over decades and second to come of maze of regulatory entities that govern pipelines in and around new york and new jersey and the infrastructure avoided to build a pipeline is complicated. no question the resource base is enormous the cast their the bay is under pittsburg by getting it to market is problematic especially around a population areas so densely populated as this. >> final question. >> basically you tell us there is a lot of opportunity for improvement and growth but the economy is not growing fast well.
what do you think of a couple of barriers to remove do get this to work? >> if i had the answers i would be richer than karl rove. [laughter] he is from austin, texas. that is okay. clearly having a government team meeting and policy makers advocating for better energy but instead we had social engineering and to tackle climate change when we leave the world to reduce co2 emissions by a lot. clearly part of it is revisiting the regulatory regimes everywhere but in a fundamentally starts with the energy than the regulatory state. thank you. of.
do a biography of woodrow wilson he took 13 years of meticulous scholarship to write this book and it shows. one of the most thoughtful, balanced biographies of this figure of american history who has his own contradictions but it gives some new insights and appreciation for the pivotal figure just one of the best part of these i have read in the long time. another book is a professor at the university of virginia a former neighbor of mine a wonderful scholar written a book that talks about how much of the problems and subsequently
the of reinstitution of jim crow flows and all is forgiven and certainly when he was actually indicted that the implication so with the appraisal of suppose civil war history with the full scholarship and research i highly recommend it. chris matthews says written a book that is called tip and the gipper of the speaker to podium and president reagan. of story that now seems long long ago unfortunately a but they could come together to
make a difference and to take it to heart a lot was done because of that relationship to reach across the aisle to get things done. a wonderful book on the history of congress of the adoption of the civil rights act of 1964 written by an idea whose time has come and how legislation happens this is almost the hour by hour recounting of what was going on and who did what. in those days republicans are at the forefront to protect america and had a lot to do with the passage of the '64 civil rights act but unfortunately most of those republicans are not here anymore but it is the
great reid with research. the sleepwalkers by christopher clark is pre-world war one starting 1870 through 1914. it contradicts that somehow you have stumbled into world war wine as an accident. but this book says not so much they were plotting, planning and many wars and conflicts that preceded 1914 that absolutely were a prelude to war. in and to the powers up against each other were in fact, not stumbling into something that had alliances and malice aforethought not that they wanted that cataclysmic war but the idea there would be conflict between germany and austria
and russia not involve novel or expected and it was quite well done and a lot of history on the importance of the balkans to what happened not just sarajevo and a lot for bosnian independence the final book is the new book called the bully pulpit is essentially the relationship between and theodore roosevelt and taft how to different men with two different stylesç that could think of no one else as the tragic unfolding of that relationship once taft became president how it was never quite prepared and you
appreciate the heart attack more than rethink of but another brilliant effort about the linkedin cabinet bringing alive the spirit of history and by the way it eerily reflects on modern politics so much of what you read for that time echoes what we are doing today with politics and the media with the relationship so it is of great reid and a must read for the summer. >> tell me about your reading habits. >> i read one barack per week and just for escapism i read mystery novels.
i tend to do cereal breeding so i will find an author i like and read everything he or she has written than move onto the next author. that is my relaxing reading but i just love history and it is important for those of us in public life to read history to understand it because it has a lot of relevance to our sense of public policy to put things into historical context.