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tv   Faith Biron on Global Energy Policy  CSPAN  December 2, 2015 12:45am-1:58am EST

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>> good afternoon. thank you for being here today. my name is sarah.sarah. i am director of the energy and national security program here. we are very pleased to have so many years a day as the executive director of the international energy agency to do the presentation. todaypresentation. today is an important day. we find ourselves in an interesting place in the cycle. we have the kickoff of the paris climate negotiation and all of us have deep concern for the security situation that we have experienced. for those of us who have been in the energy world for a while we know is one of the preeminent experts in about every aspect command during a time ina time in which we are going through
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such amazing and transport of changes in that industry is wonderful to have someone at the home of an agency like the international energy agency which is so incredibly important. i would like to welcome him to make some remarks to the presentation, and we will have a bit of a discussion about how he is seeing the trends that he will lay out before us. on behalf of a member of our board thank you. [applause] >> thank you very much for
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this kind introduction. good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. it is a pleasure to come back to csi s. it is a pleasure and honor to come and try to share our news about the global energy market with the critics year and learn from them, the questions and comments. thank you very much. so in the next half hour or so i will try to share with you where we are today in the energy markets and where we think we will be heading and the implications of those. now, when we look at this year where we are we see the lower oil prices, one
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important note is that the estimate that 2015 and more importantly we expect the declining investment to continue in 2016. and we have not seen this in the last 30 years declining investment. the decline. two years in a row we are seeing a decline in investment. and also for coal, like oil
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and gas, coal prices variable. mainly as a result of what is happening in china and the countries. the decline in demand. $50 and begin we have not seen this happening. and only 18 months ago only about $200. this is one of the major preoccupations some we are seeing some important
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signals, for example, in terms of the countries more than 150 countries now make pledges, commitments that they are willing to reduce the emission of the year 2013 by this much. it is never been the case that so many countries are making such commitments, poor countries, rich countries, north, south commanders you exporting, energy importing. this is a basis. the major growth coming from energies. i will study in a few minutes predictions for the
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future. what happened last year is a very important thing. we can expect more. >> about 50 percent. power capacity addition. hundred 50 percent. all others put together. alone 50 percent. so as such i believe they are not anymore in this field. another encouraging piece of news before the paris agreement hopefully comes out is what is happening.
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today we have about 500 billion subsidies for fossil fuels which puts the price artificially low. very unfair for renewals or efficiency measures. elective artificial law, how they can compete with renewable energy. we can think about a hundred meter race. from 50 meters to finish the race. so they can therefore, the subsidies are definitely on fossil fuels in my view public enemy number one for sustainable development and
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also more important for energy efficiency. now, these are the two major what is going to come command the question is to understand which one of them are cyclical, which one of them, and we need to answer this question. when we look at the demand growth energy demand growth, when we look at the so-called advanced economies , the energy demand, total energy demand is in a decline. mainly as a result of lower economic growth, population growth and using energy more and more efficiently. from emerging countries especially our lights on new line southeast asia, major
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to graham -- major demand growth center. growing very strongly and adding to the global energy demand growth. china is important, as usual. but the main driver engine of the global energy demand growth will go to india. they expect india in 2014. the energy consumption. and it is a country every year, we focus on one country and this year was india.
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i'll talk about this in a few minutes. one important issue i want to highlight is the energy trait we more taking place in asia. oil, gas, coal are all moving to asia. the oil in asia and two thirds begin in asia. now the economies of different tools and technologies just to give you an idea, the course of solar they are becoming cheaper as a result of
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learning by doing. they work on the oil business. an area, the cost of oil and gas production, goes up and it is the very reason why we expect the oil prices will gradually increase in the
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years to come. we have seen a major growth of oil production in the atmospherics. perhaps. it's a privilege we sit here , it's a silent revolution taking place in north america command we are seeing this as a result, huge implications for energy growth, geopolitics. but it adds a lot to the security. we also know that the press is a very important factor,
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and our expectation is infinite crisis remains at these levels we may lose a significant oil. the crisis is about $50. you may lose from today about 2 million a day commanded is a reason putting together with all other factors such as well we see today what is happening in iraq, production expectation is down, another major driver, loss of oil in the market today going high than 1 million barrels per day we expect that the oil crisis will gradually increase toward 2020. the price for the market can
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rebalance in order to make profits. it is our expectation, essential expectation that thethey are crisis will gradually increase looking at what will happen in the united states. the crisis will gradually toward 2020 code $80. $50, ten years is a new normal.
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one should not exclude command we looked, what would it take. and what would it mean for the next two years, good news or bad years. so to be able to see ten years of be on we should be able to see the picture our show you is completely wrong. about $50, us, canada, brazil will continue to increase production. the 2nd condition is a stable middle east and with the production growth. iraq and other countries increase the production. this is needed in order to see.
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of course they bring a lot of benefits to oil importers. they are going to pay less money and the oil import bill will go down and will provide relief from the trade balance. .. but another way of thinking is the implication on oil security. today about half of the global oil exports go from the middle east. we would see the 50 percent exports, global exports will jump to 75 percent.
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we have not seen since the 1970s that the oil exports from the middle east have such a high share, about 75 percent. this will have implications for the oil security, especially the current turmoil that some of the countries are in in the region. iraq, libya, syria, yemen, and other countries. therefore, low oil prices for many, many years may not necessarily be all good news. one other point. another one is that in recent years renewable energy and also energy efficiency, there are many policies. i will mention more than a minute. energy efficiency policies may not be very strong if the oil crisis is really
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low. it's like some drive for the government coffers a companies, to use energy more efficiently, the price of energy is rather low. so to sum up the old cliché of the lower the prices the better it is for the consumers may not work automatically anymore. the message you wanted to give. the revenues of the many key producers will be substantially reduced. number two, lower prices mean demonstrably much stronger than it otherwise would be, therefore putting pressure on the energy markets and therefore, we believe, it is not a likely
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scenario for a very long time and it may not be a scenario which is desirable in the broader picture. the markets and perhaps to asia which is the bulk of the growth, today when you look at the asian markets, the demand in the production is more or less similar. we are seeing the growth substantially coming from china, india command again southeast asian countries in the production growth will be rather modest. so, with the production and the demand there is a 400 bcm with many countries in the world.
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russia, getting the market. it's much less carbon than coal. in many countries as much, much cheaper than yesterday. one coal-fired power plan and one gas-fired power plan. to produce electricity from coal is 50 percent cheaper
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than producing through gas. therefore there is pressure on gas from coal, and the 2nd pressure comes from renewables. renewables on one hand becoming more and more competitive, and on the other hand they are supported through different mechanisms by the government. on the demand side it's uncertain how gas will get rid of this being sick we stop one hand by coal and on the other hand by renewables on the demand side. on the production side the growth that you see here, a big chunk of that growth is coming from shale gas and that corporate methane from
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china. it is much lower than the chinese government estimates, by not happen or it may be even higher. there is a big uncertainty for china and therefore 400 bcm may be changing as a result of the success of the shale gas coming from china in the next years to come. talking about china, one of the most impressive stories in the history of energy now is coming -- approaching to an end. this is the chinese energy demand growth story. putting a stop on all energy development of last years to come. total. total energy. if you look at the last
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years. >> a slower pace. energy demand growth. >> okay. energy demand growth. energy demand growth. >> we saw the 1st time of decoupling 20142015.
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chinese government is putting a lot of efforts on energy efficiency. chinese economy is changing. slowly but surely. the economic growth and energy demand, especially the case for coal. so this is the 1st change. energy demand growth. the 2nd change in china,
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when you look at past years he saw only two colors. oil command we are now seeing many new colors coming in the picture. especially coal is losing market share significantly. 2014 and 2015 chinese coal slow down and declined. hydropower solar being in the part of the energy mix. in china we see two things happening, economic growth and energy demand growth is
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decoupling. second, more the energy mix is much more diverse compared to today. now focus on one country. in their messages india is moving to the center stage of energy affairs. in terms of coal, if you look at them, number one import of coal yesterday india, less than are close to 250 million people have no electricity. and electricity. and to generate electricity from coal is the cheapest option for india.
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and so in my view and have no access to electricity. india will be the main driver of the global oil demand. 2015 numbers, there is some growth coming from india and it is obvious why on one hand india is the ownership level very low. 750 people out of 1009 car. europe 5000 out of 100 and 5,000 out of 100 and india 20 out of 1,000 people in the car. with increasing income levels that by cars, as many
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other people did. second, india's pushing the manufacturing. about 90 percent of the production is coming from india. it means trucks are playing an important role as a result that india is playing a very important role in the oil markets over the next. we will always in that the numbers in the tables of the oil demand. the nature of china in public. also in terms of that the government pushed. about 20 percent we believe of all global solar make it from india alone.
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a new emerging country in terms of the global energy market in the years to come. the market, the most important market here, we look at the power markets we see that the oil production is declining. nuclear is increasing. china and also japan starting the nuclear slowly but surely. growing stronger. and coal is losing significant market share. today it's about more than 40 percent share of coal in the number one feel that we
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have an increase coming mainly from india and southeast asia countries. the growth is much lower. the nobles are becoming the number one feel. two things important to note. one, in the past the growth of renewables came mainly hydropower. and in the future the biggest growth will come from wind and solar power. second change in the past the bulk of the growth of renewables came from the oecd countries, the rich countries.
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now we are seeing the growth is coming mainly from the emerging countries over nobles. pussy a major change. what i told you before, the renewables is the theme of choice. in the next 20 years out of every $10 unless it's a new power capacity $6 go to renewables.
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in order to understand. the energy efficiency. 50 percent of the global energy consumption. energy efficiency only 15 percent. the implications. if we use energy less air import dependency will be
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also less. in the last four or five years the high energy crisis , this was an important driver of the energy efficiency measures put in place. and then we look at the future and expect that more and more energy efficiency measures will be put in place. a good result energy efficiency improvements. let me finish by the discussion on climate change in paris.
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i believe paris may be much different than copenhagen and kyoto with all these consequences. first of all, we have never seen, ladies and gentlemen, that more than 150 countries it's a serious issue and i'm going to reduce my ambitions by 2030. some of those pledges a less ambitious than the others. as they stand now nobody can claim that those governments will fulfill their
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commitments as they are, not mandatory. but still there is strong intention command there is political momentum which is getting stronger and stronger. today more than a hundred world leaders are in paris. nobody can take is so very important. but i just wanted to tell you what happens if those are fulfilled. what happens if it's less ambitious.
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, the 1st application for climate change. the scientific community in the future. maximum 2 degrees celsius. and if those are forfeit implemented temperature increase will be 2.7 degrees celsius. the difference will be 2 degrees and 2.7 degrees, it's not something that you just take off and adopt. it's a tremendous implications for agile seven
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implications on the energy sector. the two thirds of the emissions causing climate change come from the energy sector. if you want to solve the climate probably after solve it in the energy sector. what does it mean for the energy sector? one sector, electricity generation made increased in the last years as we continue to increase. that there would be substantial amounts of the missions coming. and when you look at the future electricity will grow. the problem is we don't have a problem with electricity generation growing. electricity means energy means economic growth.
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the problem is not with energy but with the missions. so with this in place what happens is emissions remain stable unlike in the past. they don't grow. mainly the result of two things. they are increasing, 2nd share of coal is declining while the share of gases increasing. when you look at all this hundred and 50 pledges, i will do this. i will do this. what policies the government chooses to reach their targets, renewables and energy efficiency in relation to gas a person: one of the common things of the countries. they cannot change the
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picture significantly. for finishing the presentation i wanted to say something about the energy agency if i may. some of you may know that i started my job shared by the ministers from china they
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decided to be a member. there a member country and many others with the discussion. we will definitely fulfill our 1st pillar of our new strategy, namely opening the doors of the iea to emerging countries and leaving the image of the rich man's energy club being an organization, truly international organization and opening doors to emerging countries. the 2nd pillar is putting more emphasis on the oil security organization. we want towe want to put more emphasis on the gas supply security working on that and 3rd while we continue our pole position.
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finishing our presentation that the low oil prices, ten more years are not going to be daunting, and on the other hand not necessarily good news for the consumers if we look at the big picture ranging from energy security to the sustainability issues. india growing very strongly, and the choices that india will make.
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just give me one number. india in the next 20 years they will be more than 300 million people to the ending global population. and the buildings that they are going to leave have not been doing it. whatwhat kind of building they will have, the inspiration stand up with a mandatory efficiency policies. china is going for less growth now and also the choices that the chinese are making in line with global coal consumption and more diversification nuclear, gas, renewables, different picture than we had passed.
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the energy transition is more renewables, more efficient. without getting a clear signal from paris there will not be a major change the energy sector projects the signal creating therefore will be of vital importance. finally, the energy security challenges in terms of oil and gas. when we lookwhen we look at the challenges, climate change in the local
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coalition, the corporation on energy, therefore we are aiming to be truly international and looking at the entire spectrum of energy issues from a pragmatic place. thank you. [applause] >> thank you very much for that wonderful presentation. we will open it up for questions. we are on the record, and, and people please wait for microphone. state your name and affiliation. think of some of your most pressing questions come i wanted to start with a couple. before you arrived today we are watching the world leaders that you mentioned gathered in paris already talking about what needs to
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happen in paris and what needs to happen after paris which is one of the unique features you talked about in the climate negotiations. there is a focus on while there is a lot that has been achieved, there is more that still needs to be done. one of the things you bring up is really this transition from china being the growing emerging consumer to being the transitioning major consumer. clearly important because of the size and power of being such a large consumer command in india being the emerging consumer. part of the challenge and the paris climate talks is to prove to a lot of these emerging developing economies that we have figured out how the girl. you were justyou were just in india. how well are we selling a message? >> i think how to reconcile the economic growth and the
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alignment of consideration is a big challenge command we have to be fair here. if not to be credible we are to be fair. when you look at the us, europe, japan, china the economic growth is being mainly using a lot of coal. the will not be able to reach our climate targets. that the ones who are
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building it cheaper the african countries. for the more expensive option in the absence that, i believe there would be an agreement in paris an important if not all countries are signing, put together the emerging
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countries. the prospects and energy mixed together, and he once again i would be urging the countries to come up with some pragmatic solutions here rather than dogmatic policies which we will go across the board. i hope ii hope i am confident that we will come up with some solutions. sound energy policy and energy analysis. a lot of work on technology. already at the start, the
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investors, this commitment have never seen people underway. one of the things that we need to be doing the generation making more research, more development, and if they don't is enough renewables not because they don't like renewables, why they use coal.
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is cheaper. so research and development bring the cost of technologies down, different types of nuclear power storage doubling the force of these countries would cover all the technologies including nuclear. to be deported, the research and development efforts internationally. >> and finally before i open it up to the audience, you have been a longtime voice and arguing for not being complacent when oil prices are low. this is yet another one of those periods in time command yet we seem to be slightly seized by the idea
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to the extent to which we have several committees within our u.s. congress looking to sell portions of our strategic petroleum reserve. we have a burgeoning movement of people who believe that you should divest and fossil fuel energy oil and gas included because the resources are so abundant and we should be doing something about climate change. you don't think $50 oil is likely are necessarily desirable for a lot of energy policy goals and objectives, what message would you have for us policymakers and how they are treating oil supply in the cultivation of the resource base that has resulted from that? >> so thank you very much. first of all, i should say it is extremely wrong, mistake to my grave mistake
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if our attention to oil security is indexed to changes in the oil prices. family prices go down, no need for oil security prices go up. it is not a way of approaching the issues. oil security is an important issue. looking at where the bulk of the oil is coming from iraq, syria, libya, yemen, i think they know here, these problems in the middle east tomorrow. many of them will be with us for many years to come. the oil security at least if i may say so in the iaea are not secure.
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now one thing is important to understand, even as a result of economic problems, oil demand growth in the next ten years is zero. no oil demand growth. we still have to produce new oil amounts of 4 million per day just with the decline. so lucky human beings when there are new and young people. itpeople. it comes to a certain level and then goes down. so we have to find new things can't produce new things just to compensate those declines, and it is the main story. each year we have to bring the production level of investments.
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i am worried, whatever the demand growth is called would've to demand growth is strong: million barrels per day and higher we may see that challenge and markets over the next years to come.
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the focus for this year's energy outlook. you expect india to reach agreement on associate status? if not why and if so what are the issues that are holding that up? >> thank you. retired from the world bank. thank you for an excellent presentation. he did not mention the words carbon taxing your entire presentation or carbon pricing. i want -- i am assuming that all of your projections are assuming that something like
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that never happens. could you say a few words about that please? >> atlantic council. i wanted to ask you about the implications of the role price environment on the shale gas boom in the united states and beyond. >> so, excellent question about india. we are working with india a very long time. it was just friday, as sarah mentioned. i was in new delhi, meetings with all three ministers. we arewe are an excellent corporation. i think there are some bureaucratic challenges.
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this will be definitely good news at least for the iaea not to work with india. making major efforts in the efficiency, solar, other parts of the energy and we can also share with our indian colleagues. inside of the carbon tax press carbon purses the best solution to our client problem, to be excellent, the easiest, straightforward and the economic the most efficient. however, if you have the
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carbon tax in some countries and not in the others and maybe some imbalance in terms of the competitiveness of the economies of those countries. a carbon price. and given the current political environment in paris and before paris, after paris command agreement on international carbon price in paris for me would be a very rare prize. i'll put it this way. because it would be very difficult knowing about the different countries, but i agree with you, the best way to address the climate change problem would be putting a price on carbon.
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the low oil prices would have implications from the shale gas in the us putting you -- putting you -- putting downward pressure on the shale gas production. not directly as much shale oil, i would say. and the current price levels , little pressure to say that current levels of gas in the united states need to go up sometime soon in order to make production growth more sustainable. >> let's take another round. right here.
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>> on-site analysis. trying to deal with the conundrum. youyou are consistently an advocate of moving toward cleaner energy policies. yet in forecasting without exception as we go back, incredibly pessimistic when it comes to solar and wind. the 2010 predicted 180 for solid by 2024. your slides had 50 percent reduction for solar prices by 2040 compared to 2014. they will exceed that by 2017 at the latest. below 50 percent. why considering the advocacy of renewable energy, the continued repeated pessimism when it comes to renewable energy? >> care to stand up?
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>> high. my question is about your comments regarding changing the culture of iaea and moving it from being a rich man's club and bringing in new countries. my question is what changes within the organization would you expect to come with that change, several new countries that have a different economic perspective? >> other side. >> ravel tech energy. how do you make up and do you think of africa being a member of the iaea and if so , making up the oil protection, group oil,
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refund, working in this economy? >> okay. thank you very much. now, about our renewal projections, 1st of all, on the policies. the numbers i show you with the existing policies of governments, what we will see, what kind. we also have projections which we think government change their policies and a very strong climate policies. very strong climate policies and in that case renewal presentation is much stronger. many critics like you
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mentioned renewal projections. so causality. we look at them. 95 percent are on the spot. nuclear device upwards of solar projections. two things. they governments change their policies in support of the solar, much more stronger strong increase. the increase of projections. very happy if what you say is true next year. the cost will grow 50 percent down. if it is the kayseven be happy next year when i come here if i am invited to revise our solar projections upwards. but the projections, life does not change with my projections.
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what we do, with this policy you go here,here, but if you want to see more solar or more anything you have to change the policy and pushing more. the critics and knowledge, solar, very important and you put a lot of emphasis. it's not 10 percent, not 5 percent, not 1 percent. a 0.1 percent. the order is important, india, china and other countries. more solar next year. what are we going to change in our organization? we will open our doors to emerging countries. i am very happy that the government decided to be a member after the forfeit.
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and they work with us very strongly. we are changing our culture, for example, just to give you an idea, next year you look at issue in the environment which is specific to the emerging country, local pollution of the cities. the issue of current member countries. in asia, latin america, african america, african countries, what kind of energy policy and management was needed in order to get these policies. and more and more critics
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those governments ranging from energy efficiency to oil policies. and africa is a very good question. of course oil and gas. we assume other countries are in the picture. of course some of them need to be used. some of the need to be exported. those governments in the budgets that the main problem in africa today this is a shame.
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and africa has a lot of oil, gas cargo energy, 325 days in sub-saharan africa. very strong solar radiation, a lot of sun, 325 days. many people have no access. coming to africa. the energy to out of $3 for the oil. energy, the countries that will be part, but also the
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sub-saharan africa. >> i just want to thank you again for presenting the energy outlook. we hope you will come back and do it once again and please do keep us posted. [applause]
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[inaudible conversations] >> coming up on c-span2 adjoined house hearing on claims that russia has violated the 1987 nuclear nonproliferation treaty. the u.s. senate debate on the reconciliation bill will repeal parts of the health care law and defund planned parenthood. sen. elizabeth moore and introduces a bill to give a one-time cost of living payment to social security recipients and veterans. >> saturday another chance to cc bands landmark cases series program of the 1961 decision. the casethe case that strengthen the 4th amendment protection against unreasonable searches and seizures. redistricting issues. live at 9:00 p.m. eastern on c-span, c-span and c-span radio.
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♪ featuring introductions, backgrounds, highlights. written by veteran supreme court journalist and published by c-span in cooperation with cq press, an imprint of sage publications incorporated. available for $8.95 plus shipping. get your copy today at cases.
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>> the obama administration has accused russia of violating the 1987 inf treaty that eliminates intermediate-range nuclear and conventional ground launched ballistic and cruise missiles. thanks, to have subcommittees examine the administration's response to the alleged violation. this is the hour and 20 minute public portion of the hearing.
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>> good afternoon. i would afternoon. i would like to welcome everyone to this joint hearing. russian arms control cheating. violations violationscheating. violations of the inf treaty and the administration's response one year later. testifying today are the following witnesses. department of defense. this is an update to last year's hearing with these witnesses,witnesses, and we are eager to learn what the administration has been doing since we met an open and closed sessions on this topic last december. congress has not been sitting idle. the recently enacted fy 16 nda eight included section 1243 was directed


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